Brexit Negotiations

[BillyStubbsTears]

Meanwhile, back on to the topic of what Brexit is REALLY about...

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/01/jacob-rees-mogg-held-meeting-with-steve-bannon-in-london

[Glyn_Wigley]

Glyn

You’re assuming there’s an economic logic to Unionism. At the bottom line, Unionism will always put sovereignty before economics. And so it would be horrific for the Unionists to see an Ireland that was economically unified and separate from GB working successfully. History suggests that the Unionists would take (Carson’s old threat) “all means possible” to thwart that outcome.

There may be a canny way out of this though: say that there's no way of agreeing a soft border with things as they are. The only way to have a soft border is for NI to be part of the Single Market (there'd still be a hard border with just the Customs Union) or even full memebers of the EU. So, in order for NI to be able to that, threaten the DUP with a referendum in NI. Either (a) things stay as they are and there's a hard border, or (b) NI becomes independent (although with the Queen still Head Of Stare, like Australia etc.) and can join the SM/EU on it's own terms and there's a soft border.

Either the DUP calls the bluff and there's the potential for the first break from the UK being put into the electorate's hands and not theirs; or they start to be more flexible and possibly agree to the hard border being between NI and the rest of the UK.

Then whatever happens it can be spun that the DUP are the villians of the piece and not Westminster.

[BillyStubbsTears]

But that ignores the paramilitary aspect Glyn. That is at least as important as the conventional political fallout.

Both sides have historically seen Northern Ireland as a zero-sum game. If you are winning, we are losing. The genius of the Good Friday Agreement was that it gave just enough to each side to keep an equilibrium. The moment you tip that either way, you have destroyed the balance and given one side the potential to feel that they are losing out.

So if there's a hard border in Ireland, the Republican's will be pissed off and if there's a hard border in the Irish Sea, the Unionists will be pissed off. Either one of those outcomes disturbs the balance of the GFA and runs the risk of the men with guns coming back to argue the case for the side that feels it has lost out.

[Filo]

Glyn

You’re assuming there’s an economic logic to Unionism. At the bottom line, Unionism will always put sovereignty before economics. And so it would be horrific for the Unionists to see an Ireland that was economically unified and separate from GB working successfully. History suggests that the Unionists would take (Carson’s old threat) “all means possible” to thwart that outcome.

There may be a canny way out of this though: say that there's no way of agreeing a soft border with things as they are. The only way to have a soft border is for NI to be part of the Single Market (there'd still be a hard border with just the Customs Union) or even full memebers of the EU. So, in order for NI to be able to that, threaten the DUP with a referendum in NI. Either (a) things stay as they are and there's a hard border, or (b) NI becomes independent (although with the Queen still Head Of Stare, like Australia etc.) and can join the SM/EU on it's own terms and there's a soft border.

Either the DUP calls the bluff and there's the potential for the first break from the UK being put into the electorate's hands and not theirs; or they start to be more flexible and possibly agree to the hard border being between NI and the rest of the UK.

Then whatever happens it can be spun that the DUP are the villians of the piece and not Westminster.

I think Scotland would be wanting whatever NI get in concessions

[Glyn_Wigley]

But that ignores the paramilitary aspect Glyn. That is at least as important as the conventional political fallout.

Both sides have historically seen Northern Ireland as a zero-sum game. If you are winning, we are losing. The genius of the Good Friday Agreement was that it gave just enough to each side to keep an equilibrium. The moment you tip that either way, you have destroyed the balance and given one side the potential to feel that they are losing out.

So if there's a hard border in Ireland, the Republican's will be pissed off and if there's a hard border in the Irish Sea, the Unionists will be pissed off. Either one of those outcomes disturbs the balance of the GFA and runs the risk of the men with guns coming back to argue the case for the side that feels it has lost out.

If the vote is to stay the same, there's nothing for the paramilitary to get annoyed about. If NI vote for independence, it's not the UK's problem any more, it'll be the DUP's assuming they still hold power. And what would the paramilitary hope to expect to get out of the DUP?

It won't be the UK tipping anything one way or the other, it'll be the NI electorate themselves.

Win-win for the UK it seems to me.

Besides, I didn't say have a referendum, I said threaten the DUP with one.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Glyn

You’re assuming there’s an economic logic to Unionism. At the bottom line, Unionism will always put sovereignty before economics. And so it would be horrific for the Unionists to see an Ireland that was economically unified and separate from GB working successfully. History suggests that the Unionists would take (Carson’s old threat) “all means possible” to thwart that outcome.

There may be a canny way out of this though: say that there's no way of agreeing a soft border with things as they are. The only way to have a soft border is for NI to be part of the Single Market (there'd still be a hard border with just the Customs Union) or even full memebers of the EU. So, in order for NI to be able to that, threaten the DUP with a referendum in NI. Either (a) things stay as they are and there's a hard border, or (b) NI becomes independent (although with the Queen still Head Of Stare, like Australia etc.) and can join the SM/EU on it's own terms and there's a soft border.

Either the DUP calls the bluff and there's the potential for the first break from the UK being put into the electorate's hands and not theirs; or they start to be more flexible and possibly agree to the hard border being between NI and the rest of the UK.

Then whatever happens it can be spun that the DUP are the villians of the piece and not Westminster.

I think Scotland would be wanting whatever NI get in concessions

They might do, but there isn't a soft/hard border problem with Scotland. If they went independent they'd be creating a hard border, not solving it.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Glyn

But how on earth can this Govt threaten the DUP with anything?

[Dutch Uncle]

Win-win for the UK it seems to me.

Unfortunately it would be a Win-win for 'the UK minus Northern Ireland', and therein lies the problem. You are sounding like someone who wants Northern Ireland to leave the UK, and if the UK Government were ever to sound like that then that would certainly stoke the paramilitaries.

[RedJ]

But that ignores the paramilitary aspect Glyn. That is at least as important as the conventional political fallout.

Both sides have historically seen Northern Ireland as a zero-sum game. If you are winning, we are losing. The genius of the Good Friday Agreement was that it gave just enough to each side to keep an equilibrium. The moment you tip that either way, you have destroyed the balance and given one side the potential to feel that they are losing out.

So if there's a hard border in Ireland, the Republican's will be pissed off and if there's a hard border in the Irish Sea, the Unionists will be pissed off. Either one of those outcomes disturbs the balance of the GFA and runs the risk of the men with guns coming back to argue the case for the side that feels it has lost out.

If the vote is to stay the same, there's nothing for the paramilitary to get annoyed about. If NI vote for independence, it's not the UK's problem any more, it'll be the DUP's assuming they still hold power. And what would the paramilitary hope to expect to get out of the DUP?

It won't be the UK tipping anything one way or the other, it'll be the NI electorate themselves.

Win-win for the UK it seems to me.

Besides, I didn't say have a referendum, I said threaten the DUP with one.

But there won't be a referendum on independence. Nobody (well, apart from a tiny minority of Ulster nationalists, which is an odd concept) wants Northern Irish independence. Some want Irish unification, the majority (for now anyway) want to remain part of the Union.

Which then leads right back to the paramilitaries.

[Dutch Uncle]

Exactly right RedJ. I was just about to add that very point.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Glyn

But how on earth can this Govt threaten the DUP with anything?

Do you really think the DUP would trust the electorate to make the decision? Because they'd have to go along with whatever the piublic votes for, and no politician really trusts the electorate to do what they want them to.

Also, whichever way the result went would be bad for the DUP because they are pro-Union and anti-EU and would have to campaign on that basis.

If the vote went 'stay the same' then it's a hard border, and they get the blame for the economic consequences by everyone who loses out because of it.

If the vote went the other way, they'd get two thing they as a party are against. And the Unionist core would blame them for not being flexible and forcing the referendum. And if the paramilitary cause trouble, again it's now the DUP's problem, not ours.

Lose-Lose for the DUP. That's why the threat should be enough.

[Glyn_Wigley]

But that ignores the paramilitary aspect Glyn. That is at least as important as the conventional political fallout.

Both sides have historically seen Northern Ireland as a zero-sum game. If you are winning, we are losing. The genius of the Good Friday Agreement was that it gave just enough to each side to keep an equilibrium. The moment you tip that either way, you have destroyed the balance and given one side the potential to feel that they are losing out.

So if there's a hard border in Ireland, the Republican's will be pissed off and if there's a hard border in the Irish Sea, the Unionists will be pissed off. Either one of those outcomes disturbs the balance of the GFA and runs the risk of the men with guns coming back to argue the case for the side that feels it has lost out.

If the vote is to stay the same, there's nothing for the paramilitary to get annoyed about. If NI vote for independence, it's not the UK's problem any more, it'll be the DUP's assuming they still hold power. And what would the paramilitary hope to expect to get out of the DUP?

It won't be the UK tipping anything one way or the other, it'll be the NI electorate themselves.

Win-win for the UK it seems to me.

Besides, I didn't say have a referendum, I said threaten the DUP with one.

But there won't be a referendum on independence. Nobody (well, apart from a tiny minority of Ulster nationalists, which is an odd concept) wants Northern Irish independence. Some want Irish unification, the majority (for now anyway) want to remain part of the Union.

Which then leads right back to the paramilitaries.

If nobody wants independence then they won't vote for it. And the hard border isn't Westminster's fault any more.

[Filo]

Theres agreement concerning the Island of Ireland, the DUP won't be happy, we may well have a General Election very soon

[Dutch Uncle]

You may well be right Filo. The DUP will be opposed to anything that makes Northern Ireland look different from the rest of the UK. Makes you wonder if May did this without consulting them.

[BillyStubbsTears]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42217735

Well this is going to be fun. Either May is firing off without consulting with the DUP, in which case all hell is about to break loose. Or she's cut some sort of deal with the DUP. But I can't for the life of me imagine what deal with the DUP would cause them to accept a border in the Irish Sea.

Unless...

Belgian MEP Philippe Lamberts told the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg that the UK had made a concession on the Irish border.

The BBC's political editor said Mr Lamberts had said the UK was prepared to accept that Northern Ireland may remain in the EU's customs union and single market in all but name. But, she stressed, the BBC has not seen the draft document nor has it been signed off.

Is this a Yes Minister way of ignoring reality to kick the can down the road? It sounds like they are going to smile at the cameras and say that they are having it both ways. Officially, NI is OUT of the CU and SM. But in practice, the border with Ireland won't be enforced?

There is no way on earth that can work in practice. it would be a smuggler's paradise - get round the customs issues of getting stuff from Europe to the UK by taking it to Ireland, over the porous "border" into NI and then you're in the the UK. That would make the NI/Ireland border like the Wild West, with every gangster and barrow boy in Europe, NI and GB taking advantage of it.

Sounds to me like a convenient way of pretending the problem doesn't exist to get May out of the shit pot of her own making. But storing up a far bigger problem down the line.

EDIT: Arlene's Foster's reply.
https://www.derryjournal.com/news/politics/in-full-arlene-foster-statement-on-irish-border-after-brexit-1-8275020

“We note the speculation emanating from the European Union exit talks regarding the Republic of Ireland and United Kingdom border.

"We have been very clear. Northern Ireland must leave the EU on the same terms as the rest of the United Kingdom.

"We will not accept any form of regulatory divergence which separates Northern Ireland economically or politically from the rest of the United Kingdom."

Aye. That sounds to me like "Did you not think to consult with us first Mrs May?"

[The Red Baron]

I would be surprised if they hadn't run it past the DUP. Then again, nothing would surprise me.

I think it is an attempt to kick the can down the road. Neither side wants to be seen to be walking away from the Brexit talks, and unless they find some way of moving forward there would be nothing to talk about in January.

My gut feeling is that the UK will remain in the SM and CU. I predict an awful row about it, but I now think that is where we will end up.

[Dutch Uncle]

My gut feeling is that the UK will remain in the SM and CU. I predict an awful row about it, but I now think that is where we will end up.

As a resident in Northern Ireland, I really hope so TRB. Also for our prospects of a trade deal.

So in that case will all the financial pain we will take/are taking (which will drown the 350M per week minus rebate, minus infrastructure projects, and minus educational funding) be just to lose the ECJ?

[Bentley Bullet]

Is there any possibility that if the UK remains in the customs union and single market it might actually prosper more out of the EU than in it?

[The Red Baron]

It seems rumours of a deal have been exaggerated. Nothing agreed today. It will be interesting to hear where we go now.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Is there any possibility that if the UK remains in the customs union and single market it might actually prosper more out of the EU than in it?

It'll attract all the transhipment traffic bypassing the real border that's for sure, so all the trucker's greasy spoons will do a roaring trade.

And all the illegal immigrants wanting to get into the UK will head to Ireland too.

[Glyn_Wigley]

It seems rumours of a deal have been exaggerated. Nothing agreed today. It will be interesting to hear where we go now.

My guess is it's May seeing what the reaction will be without committing to anything.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I would be surprised if they hadn't run it past the DUP. Then again, nothing would surprise me.

I think it is an attempt to kick the can down the road. Neither side wants to be seen to be walking away from the Brexit talks, and unless they find some way of moving forward there would be nothing to talk about in January.

My gut feeling is that the UK will remain in the SM and CU. I predict an awful row about it, but I now think that is where we will end up.

TRB. In any sane world we would.

1) It solves the Irish problem at a stroke.
2) It removes the worst of the immediate economic downsides.
3) There is a majority in the country and in Parliament for that outcome.

The one and only reason that we're even in the current situation is that May chose to interpret "Brexit means Brexit" in that way, to appease her right wing.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Is there any possibility that if the UK remains in the customs union and single market it might actually prosper more out of the EU than in it?

No.

We'd have to pay for membership of both and we'd have no say whatsoever in the rules that are drawn up. And we'd be de-barred from making our own trade deals with the rest of the world.

Just like Norway.

Economically, it would be significantly better than being out of the SM/CU. But significantly worse than being in the EU.

Politically, it would be a catastrophe for May. And it would unleash another Civil War in the Tory party.

[Filo]

The biggest bollock dropped is triggering article 50 without having a clear and detailed plan worked out

[Glyn_Wigley]

The biggest bollock dropped is triggering article 50 without having a clear and detailed plan worked out

No, the biggest bollock was letting the general public vote on something without knowing what they voting for.

[The Red Baron]

I would be surprised if they hadn't run it past the DUP. Then again, nothing would surprise me.

I think it is an attempt to kick the can down the road. Neither side wants to be seen to be walking away from the Brexit talks, and unless they find some way of moving forward there would be nothing to talk about in January.

My gut feeling is that the UK will remain in the SM and CU. I predict an awful row about it, but I now think that is where we will end up.

TRB. In any sane world we would.

1) It solves the Irish problem at a stroke.
2) It removes the worst of the immediate economic downsides.
3) There is a majority in the country and in Parliament for that outcome.

The one and only reason that we're even in the current situation is that May chose to interpret "Brexit means Brexit" in that way, to appease her right wing.

My view is that May won't be around as PM a lot longer. In fact, I'm not sure this Government will survive for more than six months. If the "deal" they discussed in Brussels today pisses off the DUP, then it could be less than six months.

[Glyn_Wigley]

I would be surprised if they hadn't run it past the DUP. Then again, nothing would surprise me.

I think it is an attempt to kick the can down the road. Neither side wants to be seen to be walking away from the Brexit talks, and unless they find some way of moving forward there would be nothing to talk about in January.

My gut feeling is that the UK will remain in the SM and CU. I predict an awful row about it, but I now think that is where we will end up.

TRB. In any sane world we would.

1) It solves the Irish problem at a stroke.
2) It removes the worst of the immediate economic downsides.
3) There is a majority in the country and in Parliament for that outcome.

The one and only reason that we're even in the current situation is that May chose to interpret "Brexit means Brexit" in that way, to appease her right wing.

My view is that May won't be around as PM a lot longer. In fact, I'm not sure this Government will survive for more than six months. If the "deal" they discussed in Brussels today pisses off the DUP, then it could be less than six months.

Have the DUP got all of their bribe - sorry, monetary incentive to support the government - money yet?

[BillyStubbsTears]

It's ok folks.

May says there's only things to be resolved "on a couple of issues".

Course, there were only 3 issues to resolve 18 months ago, so I guess there's been some progress. At a guess, I'd say that we've "resolved" the fact that we're legally and morally obliged to pay what we owe for agreements that we entered into years ago, and we've still got no progress on the Irish border and the guarantees of fair treatment for EU citizens in the UK.

If this was an episode of The Thick of It, I'd have turned it off months ago as too stupid to laugh at.

[Filo]

Well it appears to me that May is that weak she is saying yes to everyones demands, and now she's backed into a corner by the DUP, who were very wiling to take the bribe to keep her in power

[Dutch Uncle]

I would be surprised if they hadn't run it past the DUP. Then again, nothing would surprise me.

I think it is an attempt to kick the can down the road. Neither side wants to be seen to be walking away from the Brexit talks, and unless they find some way of moving forward there would be nothing to talk about in January.

My gut feeling is that the UK will remain in the SM and CU. I predict an awful row about it, but I now think that is where we will end up.

TRB. In any sane world we would.

1) It solves the Irish problem at a stroke.
2) It removes the worst of the immediate economic downsides.
3) There is a majority in the country and in Parliament for that outcome.

The one and only reason that we're even in the current situation is that May chose to interpret "Brexit means Brexit" in that way, to appease her right wing.

My view is that May won't be around as PM a lot longer. In fact, I'm not sure this Government will survive for more than six months. If the "deal" they discussed in Brussels today pisses off the DUP, then it could be less than six months.

Have the DUP got all of their bribe - sorry, monetary incentive to support the government - money yet?

As far as I know I think very little (50M?) has been paid so far.