Brexit Negotiations

[MachoMadness]

Depends if Trump had made a researched and informed point about Brexit, but that wasn't very likely now was it?

You've just made BST's point for him, Sproty. Can you not see that? You didn't actually offer any rebuttal, pivoted and dissembled the point into something about Trump, and threw in a nice ad hominem at the end for good measure. Instead of looking at the argument, you just looked at the people making it and decided they must be talking shit because it's not what you wanted to hear.

People are more wedded to the points they make than the facts backing them up, and it's a worrying time.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Sproty

The most powerful man on the planet also believes or has believed:
- that humans have a finite amount of energy and therefore we shouldn’t exercise,
- that Barack Obama wasn’t born in the USA
- that “negative polls are fake news”
- that he is a stable genius
- that he is 6’3”.

I think we can safely ignore what he believes if we’re trying to establish facts.

But why raise what Trump thinks? Does what Trump thinks mean that the graph above is wrong?

[wilts rover]

Why is it that Trump dislikes the EU?

It's not because he wants individual states to 'reclaim their sovereignty'. It's certainly not because he is promoting a future of free trade. Or that there are prospects for joint military action among EU states. Nope.

It's because he has had difficulty building golf courses in Europe. That's what swung the great political thinker of our day to supporting Brexit - he doesn't like the EU because they stopped him wrecking the countryside.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jan/29/brussels-prepared-for-trade-war-with-us-if-it-restricts-eu-imports

[Sprotyrover]

Billy, sorry I wasn't attacking you, I was merely pointing out that not a word has been said about our probably greatest trading partner post Brexit being keen to engage as I said earlier if Trump had said something to the detriment of Brexit , stayers would have been shouting from the roof tops.

[Donnywolf]

I wish someone would make that bloody B****t word behave like a swear word when it was typed in any post on here

Looking forward to BBC News in 9 months time as they might just MIGHT be a single news item in their 6 o clock news that does not "cross reference" B****t and blame it or not blame it for the item they are talking about - no matter HOW obscure or unrelated to the item it is

Example

There was nearly one today as a man caught a 65 Pound Pike in the River Don at Donny. Ah said the Reporter - it would not have been possible last year but now all the Eastern Europeans can earn more money at home due to the uncertainty of B****t they are not catching fish in great numbers any more

[BillyStubbsTears]

Sproty.

No worries. I don’t take personally.

But two points of fact.

1) According to the ONS, in 2016 (last year for which there are data) 18% of our exports went to the USA and 43% to the EU.

If you’re thinking that the USA will be our biggest trading partner after Brexit, then either we’re going to have to find a way to export £200bn per year more to them (impossible) or we’re going to export £200bn less to the EU (catastrophe).

Despite what the Brexiters would like you to think, the EU is, and will remain our biggest trading partner by a long, long way. It’s just that the way we’re going, that trade is going to be very much more problematic. 

2) If Trump told me he’d wiped his arse, I’d want to see the fecal matter on the toilet paper before I believed him.

[Sprotyrover]

Billy I don't doubt that Europe will still be our major trading partner, but once we are free of the shackles we won't have to worry about Proping up all of those Banana republics east and south of Berlin, plus the PIGS.which are already struggling due to events in the Southern Mediterranean.
Russia is not a threat to us it is an opportunity
 
By the way they already can control our Air space with their ss500 missiles.

Let the Poles and Germans worry about Russia, its about time they put their Shoulders to the cart.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Sproty

Right. So by what logic can it benefit us to make it significantly harder for us to do trade with a group of countries with whom we do about half a trillion quids worth of business every year?

Will we make up the difference by trading with Putin and his gangsters?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Here we go.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42861496

Davis says “the UK wanted a "right to object" to new laws passed by the EU during the transition phase over which it had no say and disagreed with“.

Barnier says, “Get to f**k. If you want to leave but you haven’t got your shit in a sock by March 2019, you will do what you are told. WE will make the decisions. YOU will keep on paying and abide by those decisions without any say in them.”

That’s what I call “taking back control.”

Cue Brexiters’ moans that the EU isn’t being fair...

[albie]

Good longer article in Open Democracy on the doings of the coup plotters;
https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/adam-ramsay/tory-ministers-taxpayer-cash-hard-Brexit-erg

You don't need tanks in the streets anymore to grab power!

[SydneyRover]

Well the most powerful man on the planet, somebody who does happen a bit about the generation of wealth thinks Brexit is a good idea, unlike his predecessor Obama who had tried bullying tactics to try and make us stay in.
Mark my words if Trump had said anything negative about Brexit all of the amateur statististions on here would have been bellowing like Castrated Hippos !

I'm not sure quoting trump does your credibility any favours

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-worse-off-brexit-scenarios-leaked-government-analysis-eu-david-davis-theresa-may-a8184471.html

[wilts rover]

Robert Peston sums up quite well what these leaked papers show for our negotiating position:

May’s Brexit choice, according to government’s own economists: rich vassal state or poor independent country?
https://www.facebook.com/pestonitv/posts/1990184464639622

[Glyn_Wigley]

Isn't this leaked stuff the exact thing David Davis denied existed?

[Donnywolf]

Ah yes ... but the weasel will say it was not available then because it hat not been done

Now its done so it would be available !

[SydneyRover]

The Government starts to wibble over brexit and if Corbyn doesn't get with the turning tide he may be left stranded.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-today-live-updates-pmqs-theresa-may-china-eu-withdrawal-bill-trade-lords-government-emily-a8186596.html

[BillyStubbsTears]

Superbly incisive as ever from Simon Wren-Lewis

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2018/01/brexit-is-fantastic-project.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed:+MainlyMacro+(mainly+macro)&m=1

Anyone who still supports Brexit needs to look at these two paragraphs and think really, REALLY hard about the pup they have been sold. If you haven’t got a rebuttal to these points (and Johnson, Gove, Davis, Rees-Mogg and Fox haven’t, beyond “We’re British. It’ll be fine,”) then you cannot look yourself in the mirror and say that your opinion is logical and rational.

In the end, the economics is key to how the Brexit fantasy will end. No sane government or parliament will allow an outcome that makes people on average 8% worse off. That is why we have to make a deal with the EU, and the only deal the EU will allow is one that prevents a hard Irish border. That means staying in the Customs Union and much, possibly all, of the Single Market. Brexit will end with the UK becoming what Rees-Mogg describes as a vassal state. It will not be the fantasy people voted for, nor the fantasy the Brexiters had in mind.

When reality bites, almost no one who voted Leave will be happy with the result. So should Remainers stay quiet and just wait for this disappointment to sink in, just for the sake of a particularly partial concept of democracy? To allow peoples lives to be impoverished and their opportunities to be diminished because of a referendum based on lies? There are democratic ways out of this fantasy turned nightmare, and we should take them.

[hoolahoop]

Billy I don't doubt that Europe will still be our major trading partner, but once we are free of the shackles we won't have to worry about Proping up all of those Banana republics east and south of Berlin, plus the PIGS.which are already struggling due to events in the Southern Mediterranean.
Russia is not a threat to us it is an opportunity
 
By the way they already can control our Air space with their ss500 missiles.

Let the Poles and Germans worry about Russia, its about time they put their Shoulders to the cart.

Is there a nation that you do have respect for Sproty ? You have been demeaning to 6  in this post alone .
As for Germany doing it's fair share , you display a complete lack of knowledge of EU economics.

PIGS indeed.

[Bentley Bullet]

He shows respect for the UK, which is refreshing these days.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BB

I have tonnes of respect and love for the UK. It's one of the best places in the world to live and it has given huge amounts to the world (as well as taking a fair bit, admittedly). Why do you think I'm so incensed at the people who, for their own career purposes, have taken us into a situation where we are going to be significantly poorer and less influential in the future? If I didn't have love and respect for the UK, I wouldn't give a shite about Johnson et al making a mess of our future.

What I don't have much respect for is people who don't show much respect for other countries. You can love your own country without insulting or hating other people's countries.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Sproty

I was planning to ignore your stupid comment about banana republics, but I WILL pick you up on the Mediterranean countries.

Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal all currently have higher GDP growth than we do, and are forecast by the OECD to do so for the rest of the decade.

https://data.oecd.org/gdp/real-gdp-forecast.htm

Have a closer look at that table. It lists the recent economic growth and the OECD's predictions of growth over the next couple of years.

There are 45 countries listed. In 2015, our GDP growth was 24th highest on the list. By 2017, we were equal 40th. The prediction is that by 2019, we'll be 44th, with only Japan below us.

From the time of the Brexit vote, to 2019, those figures say that 37 countries will have seen their GDP growth rate increase. We are one of just 8 who will have seen ours decrease. The world is entering a period of strong economic growth which will make people all across the globe wealthier. We've decided to jump off that bus.

But never mind eh? They might be getting richer, but at least we're British and we can chuck insults at them.

[Bentley Bullet]

BST, who hates other countries? Surely you don't think Brexit was voted in because all leavers hate other countries, do you? It's getting that ridiculous these days that you can't favour your own country for fear of being racist.

[wilts rover]

He shows respect for the UK, which is refreshing these days.

If you say that calling the UK an enemy of America is showing respect than it looks likes more things have changed these days than I realised.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/state-of-the-union-latest-updates-donald-trump-enemies-america-un-recognise-jerusalem-a8186561.html

[Sprotyrover]

Wilts You have wasted 5 minutes of my life by posting that article,
I'm trying to work out what we have been doing with the handouts from the US, no doubt Billy will pull another graph out of his pocket to show us!

[BillyStubbsTears]

BB
Go back and have a look at this thread. You responded to a post that said nothing positive about the UK, but instead cast aspersions on other EU countries by saying “He shows respect for this country.”

Mynpiint was that you CAN live your country without abusing other ones. I assume that you agree with me. In which case, I’m not sure why you felt the need to post.

[Sprotyrover]

Well I guess  I better get back to  plotting the conquest of the world!

[Bentley Bullet]

BST, Hoolahoop asked Sproty, "Is there a nation that you do have respect for Sproty"?

I said "He shows respect for the UK, which is refreshing these days".

[BillyStubbsTears]

BB

Why is it refreshing? Don’t you meet many people who show respect for Britain these days? I know loads. And none of them show any particular interest in slagging off other places.

As it happens, I had a meeting in Milan last week with three Italians and a guy from Amsterdam. They all think the UK is a fantastic place. And they think Italy and Holland are pretty good too. It’s not mutually exclusive.

[Bentley Bullet]

BST, I know loads of people who respect all countries, including the UK. That doesn't mean they wouldn't 'slag any of them off' if they disagreed with their policies. This forum seems rather biased in comparison, though. In here, it seems to me there's a reluctance to do this unless the slagging off is aimed at the UK.

That is why I said Sproty's post was a refreshing change. I also found the comment about your love for the UK quite refreshing too.

[hoolahoop]

He shows respect for the UK, which is refreshing these days.

Are you suggesting that we don't value our country, are somehow not being patriotic because you couldn't be further from the truth .
I/We don't want to see the country I/ We  love become isolated , poorer, weak and turning on itself and its neighbours. There couldn't have been a more divisive act of our government than to split this country clearly  down the middle turning one against the other. Historians will look back at these times and say why didn't they the people or MPs  / Lords think things  through properly  before rushing headlong into the abyss.

[hoolahoop]

BST, Hoolahoop asked Sproty, "Is there a nation that you do have respect for Sproty"?

I said "He shows respect for the UK, which is refreshing these days".

How or why did you assume that I don't love my country from the contents of my post ?
 Like Billy and others,  if we didn't give a fook about our country , then why are we so desperately trying to maintain its position in the world ? We dont want it to be poorer, we dont want our friends and allies around the world thinking we dont care about ALL our people , we want to work properly with others for a brighter , safer, fairer and more prosperous future.

That certainly , in my view anyway, can't be done shackled to the USA, 
who incidentally want to put trade barriers up with our new friends in China , have sanctions already imposed on Russia ( mentioned above )  and want to build walls along the  Mexican border In addition they  want to renege on the trade deal they have signed with Mexico and Canada . Currently the USA are far from " sound " allies except when it suits them and only them . Finally there is the USA 's attitude on NATO, their foreign aid to bribe countries to vote with them and  their attitude to global warming and the fact that they are the ONLY  country to sign up to the Paris Accord but then once again renege on that agreement.

It doesn't bode well surely does it ?  By the way I love the USA and most of the Americans I have met in my life