Brexit Negotiations

[Glyn_Wigley]

I'm going to make a prediction...we'll end up getting a Preference Agreement - which has always been the most likely outcome  of anything over and above a straight Brexit from Day 1. The government will claim it's a Free Trade agreement (which it's not), Labour will claim it's a Customs Union (which it's not), they'll disagree with each other about what it is; and the public will make all sorts of weird claims about what it is because the vast majority of them don't have a real clue what a Preference Agreement, a Free Trade Agreement or a Customs Union really are.

[Sprotyrover]

I know it seems a daft idea, but I would PMSL if We saw a United Eire come out of all this.

[Filo]

My prediction is we won't leave, we'll just spend millions going through the whole charade for 2 years

[RedJ]

I know it seems a daft idea, but I would PMSL if We saw a United Eire come out of all this.

Yeah, the thought of paramilitaries coming back - which they almost certainly would - is hilarious isn't it.

[The Red Baron]

I'm going to make a prediction...we'll end up getting a Preference Agreement - which has always been the most likely outcome  of anything over and above a straight Brexit from Day 1. The government will claim it's a Free Trade agreement (which it's not), Labour will claim it's a Customs Union (which it's not), they'll disagree with each other about what it is; and the public will make all sorts of weird claims about what it is because the vast majority of them don't have a real clue what a Preference Agreement, a Free Trade Agreement or a Customs Union really are.

There certainly is a huge misunderstanding about the Customs Union and the Single Market. As you correctly pointed out the other day, if we stayed in the CU (or formed a new one with the EU) there is still the likelihood that some form of border checks would be needed if we left the SM.

Admittedly the checks would probably be on the Irish side, at the behest of the EU.

[Glyn_Wigley]

I'm going to make a prediction...we'll end up getting a Preference Agreement - which has always been the most likely outcome  of anything over and above a straight Brexit from Day 1. The government will claim it's a Free Trade agreement (which it's not), Labour will claim it's a Customs Union (which it's not), they'll disagree with each other about what it is; and the public will make all sorts of weird claims about what it is because the vast majority of them don't have a real clue what a Preference Agreement, a Free Trade Agreement or a Customs Union really are.

There certainly is a huge misunderstanding about the Customs Union and the Single Market. As you correctly pointed out the other day, if we stayed in the CU (or formed a new one with the EU) there is still the likelihood that some form of border checks would be needed if we left the SM.

Admittedly the checks would probably be on the Irish side, at the behest of the EU.

Its not a 'likelihood', it's a certainty. There's no getting round it except by being in the Single Market so there are no internal borders.

And don't forget - there'll need to be checks on both sides of the border because every import is also an export, so there'll be two declarations to verify; an import declaration and an export declaration.

[BillyStubbsTears]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43224785

And so the pantomime drags on.

December 2017, May agreed with the EU that there must be no barrier for goods and people between Ireland and Northern Ireland. She had to do that because it was a fundamental precondition to get onto trade talks.

That meant there were only two options for us.

1) We stay in the Single Market and Customs Union. That makes it all easy to deal with the Irish Border.

2) We decide to leave the CU and SM. But if WE leave the CU and SM, NI can only have africtionless border with Ireland if there is a border between NI and the rest of the U.K.  That’s just simple logic.

In January, May announced that we are leaving the CU and SM. So, Option 2 above.

The EU today publish the agreement that May agreed to in December.

May says that no UK PM could possibly agree to that because it means a border between NI and the rest of the U.K. 

It really is like trying to reason with a 5 year old. No sense of consequence or responsibility for actions. Just acting on impulse and then wailing when the rest of the world doesn’t fall into place.

It’s quite overwhelmingly embarrassing to deal with European work contacts who are getting THIS impression of what we in Britain think and believe.

[Donnywolf]

... and all the while the propper uppers (DUP) of the Tories will be waiting to drop them if they dont get what THEY want (AGAIN)

It just stinks and can be sorted to a degree by implementing PR of some sort. See First Pie Chart

https://twitter.com/MakeVotesMatter

Hope the DUP give back the massive Grant they were given to "save " the Tories if they DO dump them cos it might go some way to helping the NHS and/or other good causes

[tommy toes]

Only one thing forrit....
Resurrect Isambard and Alec Guinness and get them to build blidge QUICK.

[selby]

 Sportyrover, If that did happen the last people to be pissing themselves would be the E.U.
  They would have a civil war on their hands within six months and no British army or undercover agents to help them out.

[hoolahoop]

This is beyond parody.

This!
https://www.liamfox.co.uk/news/dr-fox-mail-sunday

From Liam Fox’s own bleeding website!

An article of his from 2012. Get past the throwaway comments on why he hates the EU (because the evil bas**rds insist on regulations to protect workers against exploration and to reduce pollution).

Go to the fourth last paragraph and see what he says, on his own website, is the sort of relationship that we should have with the EU.

Haha that is so funny - the knobhead hangs himself once again .

[hoolahoop]

... and all the while the propper uppers (DUP) of the Tories will be waiting to drop them if they dont get what THEY want (AGAIN)

It just stinks and can be sorted to a degree by implementing PR of some sort. See First Pie Chart

https://twitter.com/MakeVotesMatter

Hope the DUP give back the massive Grant they were given to "save " the Tories if they DO dump them cos it might go some way to helping the NHS and/or other good causes

I am totally with you on this one Wolfie , the current system and the way it has broken down now proves it's not fit for purpose.
When the Tories manage to reduce the seats to 600 as they propose ; I fear the problem will only get worse much worse.
We have 10 MPs calling all the shots especially as they have a massive  vested interest in the biggest decision this country has taken for 79 years .

[hoolahoop]

Sportyrover, If that did happen the last people to be pissing themselves would be the E.U.
  They would have a civil war on their hands within six months and no British army or undercover agents to help them out.

Why don't they have troops or a security organisation. Is it all on us and the protection of the whole of Europe too ?

[Not Now Kato]

According to some, it's going to be that bad we're gonna need food banks.

Maybe....
 

 
Back to the future with BREXIT.

[Sprotyrover]

According to some, it's going to be that bad we're gonna need food banks.

I take it the big sticks are for Whacking any 'Urchin' they may have encountered?
 
Maybe....
 

 
Back to the future with BREXIT.

[hoolahoop]

German Economy 2016

Total Exports (2016): $1,340,752,046,170
Trade Balance (2016): $280,080,028,941
Total Imports (2016): $1,060,672,017,229

$   280 billion trade surplus ffs
( More than twice our NHS budget )

Why don't we learn from them , work with them instead of trying to fight WW2 again with them ? Our exports are less than 50% of that , even little Netherlands exports more than us to the world ! Yes only 17,000,000 people produce more than us - yet supposedly the EU IS DYING . We have a British Leyland economy.
The EU is not the problem it should be the fix given an end to austerity and proper investment in " New cutting edge " industries and proper detailed planning for the future rather than ad hoc patching up.

Instead today we have a " propped up " PM who is about to piss away the future prosperity of this country . We are already bit part players in a dystopian Mad Max film set and still far too many people who can't or will not see through this dangerous charade.

Welcome to Fool Britannia .....

Finally there is little evidence of any difficulty for Germany when their 2 largest export destinations are you guessed it ......the USA and China. When I last looked neither of them were in the EU.
So why our problem then - perhaps one of our resident Leavers can answer some of my questions  ?

[Sprotyrover]

The Germans have a totally different attitude to work than the British,they se their work as contributing to the welfare of the Nation,i.e. Their attitude to sick leave,"If I take leave it's w working day lost to the Nation,just think of the cost to the economy if 10,000 knock sick for no reason!
Imagine that attitude in Britain!
They also take pride in their work ,I always say that if British Leyland had employed German quality controllers it would never have gone bust.
We as a Nation also have a bit of an attitude towards Germans and anything German,Any German ideas that work well we look upon with scorn, we can learn so much from the Germans.

[idler]

Why tar everybody with the same brush Sproty?
My nephew is married to a German girl and when we went over for the wedding in 2000 we were all treated like royalty. There are good and bad in all nationalities.

[Ldr]

If it had stayed the eec and the political side had never reared its head do you think there would even have been a need for the referendum?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Ldr

I’ll turn the question around.

If we didn’t have the Mail, Sun and Express, , do you think there would have even been a need for a referendum?

[wilts rover]

There is a good piece in todays Guardian on who and what may be to blame for Brexit and the chaos it is proving to be. From Thatcher's deindustrialisation, to Blair's open door immigration via 'cultural dementia' the playing fields of Eton and the Dam Busters!

Worth a read (whether you agree with it or not)
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/03/brexit-immigration-jobs-eton-europe

[Ldr]

Probs not BST but the media in this country is yet another issue to face.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Probs not BST but the media in this country is yet another issue to face.

And they've just announced that Leveson 2 has been dropped. Shows how much will there really is to do something about it. Or more likely how much power the newspaper owners still hold over politicians.

[SydneyRover]

There is a good piece in todays Guardian on who and what may be to blame for Brexit and the chaos it is proving to be. From Thatcher's deindustrialisation, to Blair's open door immigration via 'cultural dementia' the playing fields of Eton and the Dam Busters!

Worth a read (whether you agree with it or not)
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/03/brexit-immigration-jobs-eton-europe

Thanks Wilts, well worth reading

[Filo]

The election in Italy appears to be another blow to the EU and it's superstate ambitions

[Glyn_Wigley]

The election in Italy appears to be another blow to the EU and it's superstate ambitions

I don't see how it's going to affect the EU, neither of the biggest parties have campaigned to leave it.

Are you thinking of any 'superstate ambitions' in particular that you think have been thwarted or is that just a buzzphrase you've chucking into the mix?

[Filo]

The election in Italy appears to be another blow to the EU and it's superstate ambitions

I don't see how it's going to affect the EU, neither of the biggest parties have campaigned to leave it.

Are you thinking of any 'superstate ambitions' in particular that you think have been thwarted or is that just a buzzphrase you've chucking into the mix?

Just a buzzphrase at the moment, but it's pretty clear that the General population of Europe are not keen on closer links. I'm not teally in the know about Italian politics, but from what I've read the two parties with the largest share of the vote campaigned on curbing immigration and revising treaties with the EU, with a very to protecting made in Italy products

[BillyStubbsTears]

Filo

http://www.pewglobal.org/2017/06/15/eu-back-in-favor-but-brussels-handling-of-economy-and-refugees-still-questioned/

Have a look at the figures on here. Many people moan about the EU in Europe, but on balance, there are big majorities in most countries saying that they are in favour of the EU and want to stay in the EU.

That will only increase when they see the clusterf**k that we are stumbling into.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I am always fascinated by the fascination that Brexiters have for the EU project collapsing. I wonder whether they ever think about the possible consequences.

Consider this. In one lifetime before each country joined the EEC/EU, the following had happened.

Germany had precipitated a World War.

France, Belgium, Germany, UK, Malta, Netherlands, Italy, Greece, Romania, Bulgaria, Denmark, Finland and the states that became Poland, Hungary, Czechia, Slovakia, Croatia, Slovenia, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia  had been attacked or invaded by other European states, some of them more than once.

Spain, Ireland, Cyprus, Croatia and Slovenia had had civil wars.

Portugal, Spain, Germany, Italy and Greece had been ruled by fascist military dictatorships.

Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Croatia, Hungary, Slovenia, Romania, Bulgaria, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia had all been ruled by Communist dictatorships.

It’s not just geo-politics either. It’s personal. 25 years before I was born, and 30 years before we joined the EEC, one of my kids’ great grandfathers was in an Italian army fighting against a British Army that included the brothers of another one of my kids’ great grandfathers.

Since joining the EU, not one single country has gone to war against a neighbour, or been ruled by anything other than a democratic system (admittedly, Orban’s neo-fascists in Hungary are pushing the boundary on this one.)

The fact that that those sort of events are unthinkable today didn't come about because everyone suddenly decided not to be bad again.  What do you think the glue is that holds these countries in trading partnerships, rather than encouraging nationalistic and militaristic animosities? And do you really want to live on the edge of a continent where those animosities might be let off the leash again?

[Bentley Bullet]

Is the clusterf**k being created by the EU in order to dissuade other countries from wanting to leave? Those figures seem to suggest so, although the French 56% in favour of remain against 44% leave is a similar figure to the UK's prior to the referendum.