Brexit Negotiations

[Bentley Bullet]

So, with that in mind, my only fault (in your view) is to have a positive attitude towards the inevitable occurrence of us leaving the EU?

[BillyStubbsTears]

No. Your fault is to consistently say that you don’t trust predictions whilst not engaging with the evidence that previous predictions have been correct.

See, because Brexit is only “inevitable” if people maintain this idea that it might all turn out OK and ignore the facts in front of them. If people knew that the result of Brexit was that we’re all going to be much, MUCH poorer than we otherwise would be, there’d be riots.

Think about it. If I told you that you personally could decide whether to be £12,000 better off in 2022 without you having to lift a finger, or to choose to forego that, what would you choose?

Honestly.

Right. I assume you made the right decision on that one. Now, the economists who were RIGHT on Austerity and RIGHT on the immediate effects of the Brexit vote are telling you that you, YOU personally, WILL lose £12-15k over the next 5 years. If Brexit goes ahead.

That is still the choice that you have. Because it’s very likely that we’ll have an election before we actually inflict the very worst damage on ourselves.

But it’s not a choice if people like you decide to stick their fingers in their ears and say “I don’t believe predictions. Even when the people doing the predictions have been right consistently. It might turn out alright.”

And it’s not a choice if you say, “It’s going to happen anyway: might as well be optimistic about it.”

That’s what you are doing BB.

I reckon that is a very big fault.

[Bentley Bullet]

So Brexit might not be inevitable? What do you suggest?

[BillyStubbsTears]

I suggest talking with people about the consequences. Challenging lazy assumptions and slamming the facts into people’s faces.

Get people to realise that, when the inevitable General Election comes along, this isn’t a done deal. This is still live and the worst can still be avoided.

At the moment, in the latest poll, there are still 42% of people who think that we will be better off after Brexit. That is why I get so f**king angry about this. NO expert now thinks we’ll be better off. But the people who are going to get hit hardest have been bullshitted for years by the press into thinking that Europe is the enemy. That can only be remedied by constantly pointing out the truth.

[Bentley Bullet]

And then what?

[BillyStubbsTears]

See my edit.

[Bentley Bullet]

Ah, so vote for Jezza! This f**king nightmare will be over! A genuine EU Remainer will take the reins!



f**k ME!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Corbyn will not win a majority when the next election comes. Not a chance in hell. He would need SNP and/or LD support to get into No. 10.

Go figure.

[Bentley Bullet]

Do you know what we need Billy? We need someone with some B0llocks. Someone like Winnie. Not Winnie the Pooh (Corbyn), Winnie the Churchill.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Someone with the b*llocks to listen to the economists and understand what they're saying.

[Metalmicky]

The last thing I want is to see JC in No 10..... now that would be a calamity for the country. 

Nobody really knows how Britain will fair post Brexit and if you rolled out 100 'experts' you would inevitably find they all had differing opinions - and therefore many would be wrong. 

Brexit may mean that we will all be poorer in monetary terms, but perhaps we will become richer as a nation...

[auckleyflyer]

If we listened to experts all the time we'd be in the economic union! Experts arnt higher level beings, their prone to naval gazing and get upperty^^^^^^when there wisdom isnt obeyed.
Best informed yes, but when dealing in predicting that's all they are, not factual! In fact they were wrong on the vote and its immediate consequences.

[RedJ]

Do you know what we need Billy? We need someone with some B0llocks. Someone like Winnie. Not Winnie the Pooh (Corbyn), Winnie the Churchill.

A man who was in favour of a United States of Europe? (which I'm fairly sure has actually been pointed out and ignored further back in the thread).

[Copps is Magic]

Metalmicky.

It's comments like that why we're in the mess we're in*. The fact you display an unfaltering faith that you have the ability to predict the future of a Corbyn government but a complete absence of faith in the future predictions of experts. It displays a failure of people in my profession (academia) to engage, and displays a complete lack of understanding on your part on what 'experts' are. They aren't a sea of individuals making stabs in the dark about the future (in fact, when they do they get called out heavily). It works on things like consensus, collaborative work, rigour, peer-review, extremely stringent ethical procedures, criticism, an enduring openness, and an often unrewarding motivation to analyse things that others don't.

IF you want to disregard and disrespect those things in society then let me tell you we will be a lot poorer, rather than your stab in the dark about Corbyn. But as someone who also worked briefly in the civil service for one of the UK governments, let me tell you 99% of all policies are thankfully taken on evidence and reason and following the guidance of experts.

Your last sentence about becoming 'richer as nation', it's hard for me to comprehend how a crazy vote that's split the nation bang down the middle and created enduring rifts is, or will make us, any richer.


* And by mess I partly mean brexit but also the austerity killing public services and leaving large sections of this country behind the SE

[Bentley Bullet]

Do you know what we need Billy? We need someone with some B0llocks. Someone like Winnie. Not Winnie the Pooh (Corbyn), Winnie the Churchill.

A man who was in favour of a United States of Europe? (which I'm fairly sure has actually been pointed out and ignored further back in the thread).

I was thinking more of the man who had some boll0cks and who would never surrender to unfair demands, even in a United States of Europe.

[BillyStubbsTears]

The last thing I want is to see JC in No 10..... now that would be a calamity for the country. 

Nobody really knows how Britain will fair post Brexit and if you rolled out 100 'experts' you would inevitably find they all had differing opinions - and therefore many would be wrong. 

Brexit may mean that we will all be poorer in monetary terms, but perhaps we will become richer as a nation...

100 economists? Pah! How about 639?

That’s the number that we’re polled a month before the vote. Here’s what they said.

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/economists-views-brexit

88% of them said that a Leave vote would lead to a hit in the economy over the subsequent 5 years. We’re nearly 2 years into that 5 years and it’s panning out just like they said.

I am genuinely astonished where this near-hatred for expert opinion comes from. They HAVE called it right and there AREN’T major difference of opinion amongst them.  Why are people so determined to ignore this?

[BillyStubbsTears]

And what are those unfair demands BB?

While we’re at it, since you got all uppity about me not answering your questions last night, I notice you never replied when I asked you in what way the BBC had a pro-Brexit bias.

[BillyStubbsTears]

If we listened to experts all the time we'd be in the economic union! Experts arnt higher level beings, their prone to naval gazing and get upperty^^^^^^when there wisdom isnt obeyed.
Best informed yes, but when dealing in predicting that's all they are, not factual! In fact they were wrong on the vote and its immediate consequences.

Auckley. I assume you mean the monetary union?

The reason we didn’t join the Euro is PRECISELY because Gordon Brown listened long and hard to expert economists. They said that it would only be in Britain’sinterests to join the Euro if 5 key economic conditions were met.

We didn’t meet them. We didn’t join.

On the immediate effects of the vote, I still don’t get what you mean. They predicted a big economic hit. Since 2016, our economy has dropped by about £35bn per year relative to Germany, France and the USA. That means we’re now poorer to the time of the entire Defence budget. And Hammond said yesterday that this is hard-baked in for at least 5 years. What’s that if not a big economic hit?


I’ll ask again. Where does this contempt fit exoerts who get predictions consistently right come from? Do you ever refuse to go on holiday because an expert designed the bridges you’ve got to drive over or the plane you have to fly in?

[selby]

 Billy stop picking the facts that suit your argument, I deal stock most days.
  The consensus is ho expert has been proven right over project fear.
  Our net contribution is about £9 billion a year currently, but Brussels were looking at cutting our rebate, and putting contributions up.
  The day of the vote stirling crashed a bit, but is back against the dollar, in fact in some instances we are better off because we pay for commodities in dollars and sell into a preferential euro rate.
   If there ever were another vote I would make it a three way choice.
                 Leave ( a straight walk away )
                 Stay
                 Leave with a deal
   But I cannot see us having another vote.

[Bentley Bullet]

I reckon Churchill wouldn't have stood for any demands he deemed unfair even if he had taken us into a United States of Europe, and he would conduct Brexit talks in the same way.

As far as BBC bias, do you watch Question Time?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Selby

Picking facts? Who the hell are you accusing of picking facts. I’ve talked consistently about GDP. Always have. I was talking about it back in 2010 when I said that Austerity would lead us into a bad place. I talk about GDP because when you strip away the other bullshit, it is the only thing that matters. It’s our income. GDP growth rate is our annual pay rise. In the long run, there is nothing else that matters. If your pay rise drops by 2% a year (our GDP growth rate was 1% above that of our competitors in 2016. Now it is 1% lower and predicted to stay there for half a decade) then you end up with a lot less mo ey in your pocket. And nothing else really matters.

You claim that no expert has been proven right over the predictions about the effect of Brexit? Look at the bloody numbers man! The experts almost unanimously said our growth would be hit hard. It’s been hit hard. How do you assess that to be an inconclusive prediction?

[BillyStubbsTears]

BB

So, you don’t have any examples of unfair demands then? Or examples of BBC bias?

I watch Question Time. I regularly see the likes of Peter Hitchens or Melanie Phillips and Quentin Letts on there. Earlier this month, Nigel Farage was on for the 32nd time. Remind me what your point was.

[Bentley Bullet]

No BST, unfortunately, I haven't been invited to any of the talks.

Now then, of all those Farage appearances, how many times has the panel, and audience been set up to alienate him? 32?

And, how many times has Farage appeared since the EU referendum? Twice?

[BillyStubbsTears]

BB

So you were being a bit daft and wasting everyone's time talking about hypothetical unfair demands then?

Right. Work calling. I've had enough of this.

[Bentley Bullet]

BST

In any negotiations, there are demands made by both sides, with an aim to reach an amicable agreement.

[selby]

  Billy I am a nobody. sorry to upset you.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Selby

Apologies if I have caused offence. I get annoyed at people accusing me of twisting facts and cherry picking information to make a point. I've consistently talked about GDP and I genuinely cannot fathom how anyone can look at those numbers and see anything but a long-term disaster panning out. But what I'm tending to see is people either ignoring those figures or saying it'll be either wrong or alright, and people saying "well they all lie anyway." The central issue in the Referendum was whether we were going to be better off in or out. There's no-one seriously arguing now that we're not going to take a huge economic hit. And the figures are already showing that it's happening.

But it seems that most folk are not that bothered about the  prospect of us losing £12,000 per head by 2022 and more to come after that. So I'm obviously wasting my time.

[Glyn_Wigley]

No BST, unfortunately, I haven't been invited to any of the talks.

Now then, of all those Farage appearances, how many times has the panel, and audience been set up to alienate him? 32?

And, how many times has Farage appeared since the EU referendum? Twice?

How about you tell us the answer to those instead of expecting other people to do your bloody spadework for you all the time? You made the accusation of bias, it's down to you to produce the evidence. Give.

[selby]

  Billy, I accept your facts, but the thing is although you are right about GDP. the  result of the downturn up to press is nowhere as bad as the doomsayers were predicting.
   The insinuation was that we would immediately dive into negative growth, and that negative growth would continue over the time scale now shown as a growth period. Admittedly we are losing pace with other economies, but not at the pace or depth the so called experts predicted.
   And when we do leave, the terms and conditions will determine how the economy will perform. My instinct says that the EU politicians, when the die is cast will be told to reign in their hard stance.
    The City has long tentacles, and they may find they are not the only ones who can damage others interests.
   We will have to wait and see.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Selby.

No. I'm sorry but you're just not reading this right at all.

In early 2016, we had the highest growth rate of all the leading developed economies (UK, USA, Canada, Japan, France, Germany, Italy). Since 2016, every one of those other six has seen big increases in growth. We alone have seen a big fall. Now we have the second lowest growth, marginally above Japan who are expected to overtake us imminently.

So we DID have a very big negative hit. We have IMMEDIATELY lost something between 2-2.5% of GDP growth compared to the pre-vote expectations. That's made up of about 0.8% of actual lost growth and something north of 1-1.5% of increased growth that the rest of the world has experienced and we haven't.

That's the point I've been getting increasingly exasperated at trying to get across. We WOULD now be in recession if there hadn't been an unexpected global boom which has bailed us out. The economist who predicted a big hit TO OUR ECONOMY were absolutely bang on the money. It has been exactly as bad as they were saying.

We've avoided a recession because we've been saved by the good fortune of the rest of the world booming. But that doesn't change the fact that we've lost something like £20-40bn per year of wealth creation relative to where we would have been if we'd seen our economy boom over the past 18 months like every other developed nation has.

I think what you are saying is "we haven't had a recession therefore the predictions of Project fear were wrong." But that that entirely misses the point. We are missing out on £20-40bn of growth compared to what we could have reasonably expected had the vote gone the other way. That's unarguable from the figures that have been set out in this thread. That's the sort of hit that was predicted to happen. Had the world economy not picked everyone up, that hit WOULD have tipped us into recession. The fact that the boom did happen doesn't make those predictions wrong. Or the amount of money that we are losing any less. And that amount of lost wealth compounds, year on year into appallingly high loses. It's not just a nerdy obsession. Loss of 1-2% growth for a long time turns you from a leading economy into an also-ran.

You might also say, "Well as long as we're not tipping into recession, then I can cope with less growth than we might have had." That also misses the point. We've had a horrifically bad recovery from the 2008 crash. We've lost an enormous amount of potential wealth. That is why wages have stagnated. That is why public services are creaking. That is why it's going to have taken 7 years longer than planned to get the deficit down to zero. This is how bad our recovery has been.

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheIFS/status/973867086480060417/photo/1

And it's even worse if you look at GDP per head.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RichardALJones/status/973559409606619136/photo/1

That grew at an almost constant 2.3% per year from the 1950s until 2008. Since then it has flat-lined. That's why were all working harder without feeling any better off.  (BB: If you're listening, most of that is established fact, not prediction.)

The ONLY way that we can ever start to recover that horrifying amount of lost ground is to have a prolonged period of growth above the long-term trend. That's what's now happening in Germany. In France. In America. In Canada. Even in Italy. But it's not happening here and we're forecast to fall further and further behind over the next 5 years.

So, frankly, you're wrong to say that the consequence of Brexit on the economy hasn't been bad. It's been appallingly bad.

And then the comment about the EU hard stance? What is their hard stance? They WANT us to stay part of the Single Market and Customs Union. They have said that they'll welcome us with open arms. It is US that have chosen to leave them and deliberately make it far harder for us to trade with the EU. Complaining about a hard stance from the EU is like you punching yourself repeatedly in the face then complaining to your mate from Brussels that your face it hurting and it's his fault because just standing there watching you do it.