Brexit Negotiations

[MachoMadness]

The CBI have intervened now, saying Liam Fox's plans are unworkable and that even if they were, his department isn't set up to deal with with them. The CBI report is full of troubling little nuggets, like how the trade dept is reluctant about getting help and advice from anyone else. Probably because they're worried other people will catch on to their back-of-a-fag-packet strategy.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/cbi-warns-liam-foxs-trade-dealrollover-plan-risks-a-cliff-edge-brexit-2018-4

[wesisback]

His interview with Humphrys was nothing shy of a disgrace. Deliberately inflammatory words referring to the House of Lords vote which aside from being simply not true fans the flames of division that is already rife in the current climate.
If the deal is as good as it's gonna get you would fully expect it would pass the commons, so why is this government so insistent on wriggling out of its democratic duty?

[idler]

It's because they haven't got a clue Wes.
this isn't the Brexit that most people voted for.

[selby]

  I bet a lot of share dealers are wanting this to go on forever, anyone shorting or going long has not had it this easy for years.
 

[hoolahoop]

Yep TM now has the choice of being blackmailed by the 60 or so members of the European Reform ( not forgetting the Legatum Institute headed up by  Chandler a NZ  billionaire with links to Russia ) OR  being sensible and following the advice of virtually every expert and body in the country CBI, TUC etc.

" Cliff - edge " versus common sense Custom Union  , Party versus country,  Rich versus Poor, ' Pie in the sky/ Unicorns versus European neighbours etc etc .- you can be sure she will choose the former rather than the latter and sell us all out .

All the time justifying her actions by quoting those words that will weaken this country " the will of the people have spoken " . Oh how we will come to regret how we handed them the ways and means to destroy this country on a silver platter  for decades to come . Oh how the Tory Party must be chortling at how they have pulled off such deception .
How we , ourselves,  sold out not only our own but our children's futures for a few weak promises that could never ever be realised. A few wet dreams of an unachievable economic future, lies based around Johnny furriners taking over the country.

This country we love will be weaker economically, socially and morally going forward and all that we have managed to gain over the last 40+ years will be tossed away for nothing unless sanity is regained somehow....

This needs to be rejected

https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/peter-geoghegan/legatum-who-are-brexiteers-favourite-think-tank-and-who-is-behind-them

[foxbat]

After Brexit, British companies simply won't be able to compete. Why would you think otherwise? Can't even get Brits to pick apples or mend the potholes in the roads. Nearly half of England is obese; 50% of 18-25year olds cannot read a standard clock. No doubt the dumbed down Brexit voters will see this as project fear, or remoaning, but look at the facts. WHAT NEW DEALS?? Michael Gove said "we'll export pigs' ears to China' and he was serious. 25% DROP in UK exports to the USA since Trump got in - BILLIONS OF POUNDS LOST

[Glyn_Wigley]

We've got potholes in the road because we've had a government unwilling to spend the money necessary for even basic road maintenance since 2010.

[idler]

I've paid road tax since 1966 and it has never fully been used for roads and traffic problems.

[Muttley]

I've paid road tax since 1966 and it has never fully been used for roads and traffic problems.

You actually pay Vehicle Excise Duty which goes into the central tax pot -  it hasn't been dedicated to maintaining the roads since 1937!

[selby]

  Italy maybe about to approach the European Central Bank about writing off 250 billion euro of debt.
   Now that could be interesting.

[wilts rover]

Another interesting development I have just been guided in the direction off.

Earlier this week YouGov published a poll that showed 36% of people regarding leaving the EU as a priority against the 29% who thought keeping NI in the UK should be.

Today one taken among people in NI shows 48% favouring a united Ireland rather than a hard border against 45.5% opting to stay in the UK.

https://www.buzz.ie/news/poll-n-irish-rather-united-ireland-stay-uk-hard-brexit-279038

Now take a moment to think of the implications of all that....

[DonnyOsmond]

Cut off a limb so we there's no easy way them pesky Europeans can sneak in to our great country.

[hoolahoop]

Cut off a limb so we there's no easy way them pesky Europeans can sneak in to our great country.

Sadly that is how some think without thinking of any of the dangers in what they are proposing - dangers many of us thought had gone forever.

[The Red Baron]

Just a thought? Is anything actually happening?

We had all this fevered activity around Christmas to get Phase One completed (or rather fudged). Since then nothing seems to have been actually agreed nor any progress made.

I think the Commission has (wisely) decided to stop chivvying the UK and wait and see if anything emerges from what appears to be deadlock at all levels.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Oh, there's plenty happening. But most of it seems to be the Tories arguing amongst themselves instead of the with the EU.

[selby]

  Italy becoming more of a problem for the EU. Europe's fourth largest economy is mostly a basket case, Their Banks have Billions of debt that cannot be repaid, lots of business are bankrupt but are being kept afloat to stop mass unemployment adding to the debt, all this in spite of the E.U. continuing quantitative easing of the euro area.
   Add to this they are on the forefront of mass emigration from Africa, and the coalition government is proposing to expel 500,000,where to god knows, and like Greece you have a ticking time bomb, but this time a big one. 

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

As some of us have been saying for 2 years now, there is no solution to the Irish border problem that involves us being out of the CU and SM. That’s the key problem. There’s a turf war going on in the Tory party between those who realise this and want a sensible solution, and those who realise this and want a pie in the sky solution.

There’s no progress to be made until the Tory party decides what it wants, or the Govt falls.

What the f**k the EU negotiators think of this rabble, God only knows.

[selby]

  Billy, I watched a programme the other day about this subject, the port of Harwich does £86 billion of trade with the Eu every year all electronically surveyed, and very few customs officers evident at all.
  The cross border trade amounts to £3 billion per year.
    Just what would be the problem and the difference in your eyes?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Selby

Just stop and have a think about the blindingly obvious flaw in your argument there.

[selby]

  Billy I asked you the question, they will both be physical border crossings, one dealing with much more trade than the other.
  There has been no talk of the systems at the ports being not acceptable to either side, it is a proven system that works.
  I am asking you, what do you see as a problem?

[BillyStubbsTears]

The crossing from Harwich to the continent is taking place within a Customs Union! That is precisely why there is so little active intervention at the crossing. They don’t have to check that’s whats going in and out is acceptable to the other side because we’re all playing by the same rules on standards. And there are no tariffs for goods going between us and the Continent. That’s the whole point!

If we leave the Customs Union, the 250 crossing points between NI and Republic of Iteland will each become a crossing point between the UK and the EU Customs Union. Checks will be required. That will gum up the border and destroy a key principle of the Good Friday Agreement.

If there was a simple solution, don’t you think we’d have found it by now? Instead, 23 months on, we still haven’t got a f**king clue how to leave the CU without the Irish border being a disaster.

[selby]

  Billy, the same system can still be implemented if both sides want to agree to it.
  The fact is it is not seen as as acceptable for political reasons, mostly from the EU's point of view, economically it is small beer, and would hit the economy of Southern Ireland.
  Fun and games to be had down the line I think, but time to bang heads together and get on with it.
 

[MachoMadness]

  Billy, the same system can still be implemented if both sides want to agree to it.
  The fact is it is not seen as as acceptable for political reasons, mostly from the EU's point of view, economically it is small beer, and would hit the economy of Southern Ireland.
  Fun and games to be had down the line I think, but time to bang heads together and get on with it.
 

It would hit the economy of Southern Ireland, who didn't vote for Brexit and are part of the EU. Why should the EU f**k over its own citizens to give us what we want? We're the ones who want to leave, and we will bear the consequences, but the EU cannot allow those consequences to affect its own citizens living in ROI. I'm sure people will think I'm anti-British for saying this, but I don't think that's an unreasonable position for the EU to take. We'd do exactly the same, I'm sure.

[BillyStubbsTears]

No! The same system CANNOT be implemented unless WE accept the terms of the CU. That’s the whole point! If we want the flexibility of being outside the CU then BY DEFINITION we will not be abiding by the rules of the CU.

Is it that hard to follow? It is nothing to do with the EU making it hard for us. It’s all about us having no rational approach other than saying “let us have all the benefits of membership and all the benefits of non-membership.” Do you see why the EU is so exasperated with us?

[RedJ]

  Billy, the same system can still be implemented if both sides want to agree to it.
  The fact is it is not seen as as acceptable for political reasons, mostly from the EU's point of view, economically it is small beer, and would hit the economy of Southern Ireland.
  Fun and games to be had down the line I think, but time to bang heads together and get on with it.
 

Not sure I'd call the potential return of the men with the guns "fun and games"

[Glyn_Wigley]

  Billy, the same system can still be implemented if both sides want to agree to it.
  The fact is it is not seen as as acceptable for political reasons, mostly from the EU's point of view, economically it is small beer, and would hit the economy of Southern Ireland.
  Fun and games to be had down the line I think, but time to bang heads together and get on with it.
 

No it bloody can't and it has never been a possibility. When we leave the Single Market and the Customs Union EVERY consignment crossing the newly restored trade border will require a Customs Declaration on BOTH sides of the border (An export declaration in the country of exit and an import declaration in the country of entry). That applies even when there is no Duty or VAT to collect. And every consignment will be liable to a physical examination at any time the consignment is in Customs Control in order to verify that the Declaration isn't false. Exactly as it was before we joined the Single Market in 1992. Nothing to do with 'politics' at all, it is how things are and always were. We're just going back to 'the good old days'. Apparently it's what the people voted for.

That is what a hard border is. And as Billy says, there is no way round that without staying in the Single Market and Customs Union i.e. everything staying the same as it is now.

[Glyn_Wigley]

  Billy, the same system can still be implemented if both sides want to agree to it.
  The fact is it is not seen as as acceptable for political reasons, mostly from the EU's point of view, economically it is small beer, and would hit the economy of Southern Ireland.
  Fun and games to be had down the line I think, but time to bang heads together and get on with it.
 

It would hit the economy of Southern Ireland, who didn't vote for Brexit and are part of the EU. Why should the EU f**k over its own citizens to give us what we want? We're the ones who want to leave, and we will bear the consequences, but the EU cannot allow those consequences to affect its own citizens living in ROI. I'm sure people will think I'm anti-British for saying this, but I don't think that's an unreasonable position for the EU to take. We'd do exactly the same, I'm sure.

On top of ordinary trade, an open border between NI and Eire will instantly attract fraudulent CAP movements and the EU (quite rightly) ain't going to allow that to happen.

[MachoMadness]

Michael Gove is giving a wonderful speech about how Britain is now more welcoming to migrants after the Brexit vote. Great banter.

[wilts rover]

  Billy, I watched a programme the other day about this subject, the port of Harwich does £86 billion of trade with the Eu every year all electronically surveyed, and very few customs officers evident at all.
  The cross border trade amounts to £3 billion per year.
    Just what would be the problem and the difference in your eyes?

The problem is not inter-Europe trade but goods arriving in Europe from the rest of the world.

Currently all goods from whatever country of origin are subject to the relevant EU customs duty at their port of entry into Europe. Late last year it was announced that the UK has been failing to collect the correct duty on many Chinese goods, depriving the EU of around £2.4 billion in lost revenue and most likely to end up in a court case at the ECJ.

So with Northern Ireland after Brexit, how can the EU be assured that goods wont come into Belfast tariff free and then be transferred across the border to the Republic without paying EU taxes? If we can't collect/are subject to fraud, when we are in the same customs area is it no wonder they are suspicious of what might happen outside of it?


https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-faces-e2-billion-eu-payment-for-china-fraud-trade/

[BillyStubbsTears]

And so the gentle downward spiral continues.

https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/22/brexit-vote-cost-uk-mark-carney-bank-of-england?CMP=share_btn_tw&__twitter_impression=true

Still. We took back control, eh?