Brexit Negotiations

[SydneyRover]

Brexit is already costing the public purse £500m a week, new research has found – a stark contrast to the £350m “dividend” promised by the Leave campaign. The Centre for European Reform’s analysis also suggests that the government’s austerity drive would be on the way to completion had Britain voted to stay in the European Union.

And Boris wants to challenge May to see who can *uck over Britain the most.


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/29/britain-bill-brexit-hits-500-million-pounds-a-week

[Glyn_Wigley]

At last, someone on the BBC who asks questions properly. Ben Bradley MP on Stephen Nolan last night:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0000jd9

It starts about 10 minutes in, then the phones goes down but then go to 33 minutes for the rest of it.

I listened to it live, it's an absolute car crash of an interview from someone backing the 'Boris Plan' but has his arse handed to him on a plate when it's shown he has completely no idea how it's supposed to work in Ireland and he comes up with guess after guess when Nolan doesn't let him get away with it. I bet this interview won't get mentioned much elsewhere in the media!

[Dutch Uncle]

By far the best description I have seen of the realities of the Irish border problem is in a recent twitter stream by Patrick Kielty directed at Boris. Am having  trouble linking to it, but please please google for it and read it. It explains in simple terms what the problem really is and the effects of the Good Friday Agreement.

Edit: Read the original twitter stream, not newspaper selective reports.

[SydneyRover]

At last, someone on the BBC who asks questions properly. Ben Bradley MP on Stephen Nolan last night:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0000jd9

It starts about 10 minutes in, then the phones goes down but then go to 33 minutes for the rest of it.

I listened to it live, it's an absolute car crash of an interview from someone backing the 'Boris Plan' but has his arse handed to him on a plate when it's shown he has completely no idea how it's supposed to work in Ireland and he comes up with guess after guess when Nolan doesn't let him get away with it. I bet this interview won't get mentioned much elsewhere in the media!

thanks GW the interviewee is Ben Bradley member for Mansfield, Nolan carved him up, but nicely. Great interview.

[wilts rover]

For anyone with an hour and half to spare I went to a talk the other evening with the international trade negotiators Jason Hunter and Stuart Brown discussing what leaving on WTO rules will mean.

Jason's talk is here, about 20 mins.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OtkP3Hkc1cM

There was a Q&A at the end where I get to ask a question but there is a lot of rambling
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmUJzXYiku8

For those who want a quick summary:
After Brexit everything stops. Everything. 750+ treaties covering areas as varied as docking permissions for cross-channel ferries & aircraft safety certification to veterinary regulation and platform permission for the Euro-Shuttle.

A bloke asked how he could guarantee he would be able to provide and ship an order of drones he had for an event in Belgium next June. The answer - set up a shell company in Estonia.

[SydneyRover]

For anyone with an hour and half to spare I went to a talk the other evening with the international trade negotiators Jason Hunter and Stuart Brown discussing what leaving on WTO rules will mean.

Jason's talk is here, about 20 mins.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OtkP3Hkc1cM

There was a Q&A at the end where I get to ask a question but there is a lot of rambling
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmUJzXYiku8

For those who want a quick summary:
After Brexit everything stops. Everything. 750+ treaties covering areas as varied as docking permissions for cross-channel ferries & aircraft safety certification to veterinary regulation and platform permission for the Euro-Shuttle.

A bloke asked how he could guarantee he would be able to provide and ship an order of drones he had for an event in Belgium next June. The answer - set up a shell company in Estonia.

thanks wilts, I will listen when I get a chance, but it appears to confirm what the Nolan interview exposed that the MP from Mansfield conceded that with the Boris plan everything would change but be the same.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I'll do a bit of crystal ball gazing here.

Everyone knows that any form of Brexit would be damaging to the economy.

Everyone knows that the only reason we had a Referendum was to sort out the issues on the Right of the Tory party.

Everyone knows that Johnson carefully calculated which way to dive in in the Referendum to maximise his chances of becoming PM.

Everyone knows that every shenanigan in the Brexit manoeuvring over the past 2 years has been about who comes out the other side as PM.

Start of from there and the logic of where we are going is bleeding obvious.

1) Johnson needs May to fail. To have Chequers thrown out. To go to the wire of March next year with no deal on the table.

2) Then there is a crisis. May is dead. She resigns if she has any pride. If not she's booted out.

3) Johnson replaces her as PM.

4) But Johnson is not so stupid as to then pitch us into a No Deal scenario. He knows that would be catastrophic and he would go down in history as the man who sent Britain off to a third rate future and destroyed the Union. He doesn't want that.

5) So he concocts some cock and bull story about the negotiations having gone to hell. And how we need a longer period to sort out shit out. And we end up with PM Johnson and not much else changing. Which was always his aim.

6) And yes, that wouldn't satisfy the Europhobes on the Right of the Tory party. But he faces them down by saying, "So sack me then. And go into chaos. And get PM Corbyn."

7) And the issue of UK Vs Europe remains unresolved for another decade.

And the entire f**king country will have been played to satisfy that bas**rd's ego.

Watch it unfold over the next 6 months.

[Glyn_Wigley]

I don't know about Johnson facing the party down. I'm with Michael Heseltine, who described Johnson as "A man who waits to see which way the crowd is running and then dashes in front and says ‘follow me’."

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wait till he's PM and the Tory party is shattered over Brexit and looking for a leader to rally round.

[The Red Baron]

I'll do a bit of crystal ball gazing here.

Everyone knows that any form of Brexit would be damaging to the economy.

Everyone knows that the only reason we had a Referendum was to sort out the issues on the Right of the Tory party.

Everyone knows that Johnson carefully calculated which way to dive in in the Referendum to maximise his chances of becoming PM.

Everyone knows that every shenanigan in the Brexit manoeuvring over the past 2 years has been about who comes out the other side as PM.

Start of from there and the logic of where we are going is bleeding obvious.

1) Johnson needs May to fail. To have Chequers thrown out. To go to the wire of March next year with no deal on the table.

2) Then there is a crisis. May is dead. She resigns if she has any pride. If not she's booted out.

3) Johnson replaces her as PM.

4) But Johnson is not so stupid as to then pitch us into a No Deal scenario. He knows that would be catastrophic and he would go down in history as the man who sent Britain off to a third rate future and destroyed the Union. He doesn't want that.

5) So he concocts some cock and bull story about the negotiations having gone to hell. And how we need a longer period to sort out shit out. And we end up with PM Johnson and not much else changing. Which was always his aim.

6) And yes, that wouldn't satisfy the Europhobes on the Right of the Tory party. But he faces them down by saying, "So sack me then. And go into chaos. And get PM Corbyn."

7) And the issue of UK Vs Europe remains unresolved for another decade.

And the entire f**king country will have been played to satisfy that bas**rd's ego.

Watch it unfold over the next 6 months.

I haven't read the article but a headline in The Sun suggests that Johnson would seek a six month delay to Brexit if he became PM. Fascinating.

[Sprotyrover]

The only people at the Tory party conference following Johnson around seems to be that army of Press.

[Sprotyrover]

I was expecting a Tory meltdown this week it hasn’t happened and it seems they have sorted themselves out. Good speech from Home Secretary and quite a nasty attack on Corbyn, and he was quite right Corbyn should never be allowed to become PM.

[BillyStubbsTears]

So, after losing one ignorant clown of a Foreign Secretary this year, it looks like we've replaced him with another.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45750023

How f**king stupid can you get? Comparing the EU to the Soviet Union is beyond idiotic. He suggested that the EU was like the Soviet Union in that the SU stopped countries leaving its influence. The bloody idiot. We can leave the EU whenever we want. There is nothing whatsoever stopping us from doing it. The issue is that Hunt, May and the rest of the jokers in charge have got a strop on because the EU is saying that we cannot have all the benefits of staying in the EU once we've left.

To go from that to a comparison of the EU with the Soviet Union is utterly disgusting.

[tommy toes]

Aye the EU didn't want us to leave so they've every right to say: "Right f off and if you want to deal with us in the future it'll be on our terms."

[wilts rover]

As he was told by the leaders, foreign ministers and ambassadors of several eastern european countries who had been under Soviet influence for many years. Including of course Donald Tusk who was beaten-up and imprisoned whilst protesting against Soviet influence in his country so that's really going to help the negotiations.

Then again Hunt did confuse Japan and China on an earlier official visit so he is just confirming that lack of talent is no barrier to progress in May's government.

[SydneyRover]

For those that think going it alone or throwing up fences is a good idea the photos and stories around the bits of the Berlin Wall that still exist are thought provoking, likewise travelling through Czech Republic where they are commemorating the 68 invasion by the USSR with photos and text from the time being displayed. Unity is strength.

[Donnywolf]

The Baltic States had their own revolutions of course and did the famous "linking of hands" across all three Countries. Very touching and eventually successful The Baltic Way did the business

https://holeinthedonut.com/2016/12/10/baltic-way-lithuania-latvia-estonia/

Check out the Wishing Tile outside Vilnius Cathedral. It says turn round 3 times as you make your wish and it will come true. My Wife said what did you wish for - and I said cant say it probably wont come true ! I forgot all about it till Trotta hit the Crossbar 10 Months later - so for me a 100% strike rate with that Stone !

[tommy toes]

That's spooky Wofie.
I had the same experience when I took the kids to Mother Shiptons cave in 1999.
'Dad make a wish at the wishing well' the little scamps implored.
So with us bottom of the Conference I begged the long dead old soothsayer to save us from oblivion and hey presto she did. Bless her.

[BillyStubbsTears]

This "Easiest negotiation ever" as one prominent Brexiter put it is going well, I see.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45857258

5 months away from the trapdoor and we're still no nearer to sorting out the Ireland issue than we were when we voted. Who'd have thought it, eh?

Apart from anyone and everyone who sat down and reflected on it for more than 10 seconds.

[Glyn_Wigley]

At least Raab gives the impression of trying to solve things instead of the posturing that was all we got from Davis.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

He certainly is trying. What surprises.me is that it's our government that are the bad guys. Are the e.u doing the best for everyone? I would suggest not.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BFYP

The EU are doing the best for the EU. What do you expect someone to do in a negotiation?

[RedJ]

Important to bear in mind WE are the ones wanting to leave, of course.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

BFYP

The EU are doing the best for the EU. What do you expect someone to do in a negotiation?

Best for whom? Them as an ongoing organisation or best for the person's that they represent?

[BillyStubbsTears]

The best for them as 27 independent countries with diverse and overlapping interests, as they currently and collectively see it.

The "EU" doesn't exist in that sense. They are still at root a set of independent countries, with different prioritoes. But they compromise because they see the benefit of collective action and strength. They have to agree their stance as a set of countries, negotiating priorities internally. There isn't an "EU" monster that our Press and right-wing (and some left-wing) politicians like to claim.

[MachoMadness]

He certainly is trying. What surprises.me is that it's our government that are the bad guys. Are the e.u doing the best for everyone? I would suggest not.

The EU are quite within their rights to dig their heels in and defend their red lines to stick up for their citizens. This is like having a lodger who suddenly decides they don't want to pay rent anymore, but they still want to sleep in your house, park on the drive, and have you make a cuppa for them every morning. Then for good measure that lodger regularly takes to social media to slag you off and stamp their feet about how unfair you're being. If that happened, you'd stick up for you and yours, wouldn't you?

[Sprotyrover]

Yes the lodger who pays way over what they should do and who keeps you house safe whilst you pi**off to the Bingo every night

[RedJ]

Yes the lodger who pays way over what they should do and who keeps you house safe whilst you pi**off to the Bingo every night

Well, that's not quite a fair comparison is it. But if you felt that way and you decided to leave, then they still have f**k all obligation to you, do they? It's like me telling my bank I don't fancy paying the mortgage on my house anymore and letting my utilities know I've cancelled their direct debits but expecting to be able to live in it anyway with gas and lecky.

[MachoMadness]

Yes the lodger who pays way over what they should do and who keeps you house safe whilst you pi**off to the Bingo every night

As RedJ says, if that lodger feels hard done by they can leave but they don't get to stamp their feet about not getting to park on the drive anymore. They've got no obligation to make things easy for us. Of course, we've got no obligation to give them what they want either, but we don't have anything to bargain with.

See, to me, the EU being awkward bas**rds who are willing to dig their heels in and stand up for their citizens in matters like this makes me think you'd want them on your side fighting your corner, particularly when you're competing with that lunatic in the White House.

[Sprotyrover]

Yes the lodger who pays way over what they should do and who keeps you house safe whilst you pi**off to the Bingo every night

Well, that's not quite a fair comparison is it. But if you felt that way and you decided to leave, then they still have f**k all obligation to you, do they? It's like me telling my bank I don't fancy paying the mortgage on my house anymore and letting my utilities know I've cancelled their direct debits but expecting to be able to live in it anyway with gas and lecky.

So smacked yer bitty  over the lodger and now we have to move on to home owners who don't want to pay their mortgage 😂