Brexit Negotiations

[The Red Baron]

Interesting

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/10/18/brexit-the-three-key-concessions/

[BillyStubbsTears]

Better and more logically argued than most of the piss and wind you hear from Brexiteers. But there's still a kernel of nonsense at the heart of it.

" The Northern Irish problems largely disappear if a comprehensive free-trade arrangement can be agreed."

No. They don't. Because, unless the "comprehensive" treaty is as comprehensive as the SM and CU, the NI/RoI border still becomes a trade border between different systems. Which requires checks and infrastructure.

And why on earth should the EU allow us to have a deal that replicates all the benefits of the SM and CU and have the freedom to sort out own trade elsewhere?

And if we haven't got that freedom, the swivel-eyed right wing loons in the Tory party will vote down any agreement.

That's been the core problem for 2 years. It's still the core problem. There's no sign of it not remaining the core problem.

[wilts rover]

That is also Robert Peston's conclusion Billy and he goes on further to speculate that this is now the choice May has to make, a Customs Union Brexit or no deal.

https://www.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2189927274665339/

That will get Labour support in Parliament but as she has consistently promised (and Parliament voted) that we would not be in a CU then what it would do to the Tories is anyone's guess.

[selby]

  Billy, I respect your opinions although I don't agree with lots on this subject, but I would like to know your thoughts on this.
  It was reported this morning that the Republic of Ireland had a meeting with high ranking EU officials and was assured in the event of NO DEAL there  would be NO HARD BORDER with the UK.
  Now come on do a deal and a hard border, no deal and no hard border, that has to be an exposure of putting up a delaying tactic. Add to which because of the different vat and other taxes between the UK and the EU the bloody border already works efficiently already to both sides agreement.
   The cat has been well and truly let out of the bag on this subject mate.

[Herbert Anchovy]

Interestingly I’ve recently spent some time working in the West Midlands. The landlady of the b&b I stayed with was an Italian who had moved to the U.K. with her English husband some years ago. One evening we began talking about Brexit and the EU and she was surprisingly critical of the EU and the influence it’s having on the country.

Apparently there’s a strong feeling in the country that strict financial rules imposed by the EU mean the Italian Government is restricted in its ability to help the country out of its present financial crisis. That, coupled with a distinctly euro sceptic government is driving anti EU sentiment. They fully expect, and hope, that Italy will be the next country to leave the EU.

[idler]

You are generalising a bit there foxbat. I live in Bradford but have a postal vote as one year I was away when an election took place.
Many more voted leave at the ballot box in the UK than by post.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Selby

1) Have you got a link to the story about Varadker? I can't find anything on it.

2) Cross-border VAT is co-ordinatrd through the Single Market. The Single Market which we have unilaterally decided to leave. So, without some alternative arrangement, there will be VAT issues to deal with at the NI/RoI border. So I'm struggling to understand what point you're making.

[BillyStubbsTears]

There is a much bigger point of course. The fact that the Brexiteers have set up leaving the CU and SM as a red line. I've never understood what's going on there. What's driving this obsessive determination to make us significantly poorer for many, many years to come. It's like we're saying to the EU, "We're so fed up of your long term plan to make Europe safer and more prosperous that we're going to insist on our sovereign right to repeatedly punch ourselves and our kids and our grandkids in the face."

[selby]

   Billy it was on Talk Radio this morning discussing the meating the Irish foreign minister had this last week about their situation if there is no deal.
  It caused quite a stir, the DUP spokesman dismissed the border problem as just a delaying tactic with no substance behind it, and even the others including the Republic representative tended to agree.
   It will be interesting if there is no deal just how it rolls out, if there is not much change and things carry on as is, who will carry the can for two years of b******s.

[selby]

   Billy the proposal put forward on the programme was electronic surveyance, pre documentation and only periodical checks at the border with vehicles etc that were suspect, much as it works now, and between Switzerland and other none EU countries on the continent, Not a lot that has not been done before, when there is a will by both parties for it to happen.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Have you ever driven across the border from Italy or France or Germany into Switzerland? If you have, you'll have seen active customs border infrastructure, lorries being pulled over and checked and queues.

That is PRECISELY what must not happen at the NI/RoI border for all sorts of psychological reasons.

The GFA works because both sides in NI feel that they have a situation that they want. The Unionists are still formally part of the UK because the border exists in principle. The Republicans can feel practically part of the RoI because the border doesn't exist in practice. Bring anything back that upsets that balance and you're off on the road to Hell again.

Which is PRECISELY what some of us were warning about 30 months back. And there's still not been a single realistic idea from the Tory Govt on how to get around this without the entire UK staying in the CU.

It's NOT solvable by technology. It's NOT a bogeyman that's being out up by the EU. It's an impossible problem to solve if you want
a) Peace in NI and
b) The UK out of the CU.

Anyone who tells you otherwise is treating you like a fool.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Here's what the Swiss-German border looks like by the way.

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://m.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DmuMR55L2OGo&ved=0ahUKEwi-_O3Yp5LeAhXOzaQKHUgnD5YQo7QBCBwwAA&usg=AOvVaw2h-719zEbcpHIVx5kCHj8n

Reintroduce that in NI and you are sending out a very strong message to the Republicans. You're saying, "You've lost lads."

The genius of the GFA was that it allowed both sides to feel that they hadn't lost. Only a f**king idiot (or someone who didn't actually give a shit about peace in NI, and I do fear that there are plenty of them about) would start undermining the foundations of the GFA.

Just like some of us were saying 30 months ago, and being dismissed as Project Fear-mongers.

[BillyStubbsTears]

By the way, the other Big Lie being pushed (and which you are buying into Selby) is that the EU are making the border issue more than it needs to be to punish us.

Absolute b*llocks.

The EU is saying that, if a hard border returns in Ireland, that will have a seriously detrimental effect on an EU member (Ireland) through increased costs and a threat to peace. So, the EU is saying, if you, Britain, insist on a situation where a hard border comes back, we, the EU, will not negotiate any favourable trade terms with you. Because why should WE give YOU benefits when one of our members is going to suffer?

That's how negotiations start. With a clear statement of principles.

The EU has consistently said that there is a simple way out of this: the UK stays in the CU and SM and the problem vanishes. Or, if not, NI stays in the CU and SM and you, UK, sort out what that means for the relationship between NI and the rest of the UK. Or, YOU, UK, come up with a sensible alternative.

It's really that simple. Anyone who tells you otherwise is playing you for an idiot. You might want to stop and ask yourself why they are doing it.

[MachoMadness]

The things people will do to get around paying tax.

[Boomstick]

Better and more logically argued than most of the piss and wind you hear from Brexiteers. But there's still a kernel of nonsense at the heart of it.

" The Northern Irish problems largely disappear if a comprehensive free-trade arrangement can be agreed."

No. They don't. Because, unless the "comprehensive" treaty is as comprehensive as the SM and CU, the NI/RoI border still becomes a trade border between different systems. Which requires checks and infrastructure.

And why on earth should the EU allow us to have a deal that replicates all the benefits of the SM and CU and have the freedom to sort out own trade elsewhere?

And if we haven't got that freedom, the swivel-eyed right wing loons in the Tory party will vote down any agreement.

That's been the core problem for 2 years. It's still the core problem. There's no sign of it not remaining the core problem.

Christ, what are you blithering in about. It wouldn't be called a comprehensive deal, if it wasnt as comprehensive as the CU and SM

[BillyStubbsTears]

Folks. We're in the presence of Genius.

Boomstick is about to explain to us what no one has yet been able to figure out in 2 years of negotiations between Britain and the EU.

How we get a deal that's as comprehensive as the CU and SM whilst allowing Britain all the benefits of not having to abide by the collective responsibilities that come with membership of the CU and SM. And satisfies the nutters on the Right of the Tory party whose heads will explode if anyone so much as hints that we'll stay part of the CU and SM.

We sit in rapt attention, like Kwai Chang Caine at the feet of Blind Master Po.

[Boomstick]

Folks. We're in the presence of Genius.

Boomstick is about to explain to us what no one has yet been able to figure out in 2 years of negotiations between Britain and the EU.

How we get a deal that's as comprehensive as the CU and SM whilst allowing Britain all the benefits of not having to abide by the collective responsibilities that come with membership of the CU and SM. And satisfies the nutters on the Right of the Tory party whose heads will explode if anyone so much as hints that we'll stay part of the CU and SM.

We sit in rapt attention, like Kwai Chang Caine at the feet of Blind Master Po.

It wasn't me that wrote that article referring to a comprehensive deal.
I was just calling you out on you constant drivel on this subject.

[Boomstick]

By the way, the other Big Lie being pushed (and which you are buying into Selby) is that the EU are making the border issue more than it needs to be to punish us.

Absolute b*llocks.

The EU is saying that, if a hard border returns in Ireland, that will have a seriously detrimental effect on an EU member (Ireland) through increased costs and a threat to peace. So, the EU is saying, if you, Britain, insist on a situation where a hard border comes back, we, the EU, will not negotiate any favourable trade terms with you. Because why should WE give YOU benefits when one of our members is going to suffer?

That's how negotiations start. With a clear statement of principles.

The EU has consistently said that there is a simple way out of this: the UK stays in the CU and SM and the problem vanishes. Or, if not, NI stays in the CU and SM and you, UK, sort out what that means for the relationship between NI and the rest of the UK. Or, YOU, UK, come up with a sensible alternative.

It's really that simple. Anyone who tells you otherwise is playing you for an idiot. You might want to stop and ask yourself why they are doing it.

The EU ARE using it as a bargaining chip. Understandably so.
Afterall, they need to be seen to be playing hardball for 3 reasons.
1. They need to be perceived as a stronger than an individual country. (Also deterring any other country wanting out)
2. It's us that chose to leave, so there making us sweat.
3. They want a good deal just as much as us.

IMO the EU will cave at the 11th hour and there will be a hard boarder. Whilst claiming we gave them concessions elsewhere.
Or we get a no deal Brexit and there's a hard boarder anyway.

Remember they want a deal, just as much as us.

[MachoMadness]

They want a deal. It's in their interests to get one. But they don't NEED a deal. We do. Remember it's not just us vs the EU, it's us vs 27 other countries. If we crash out without a deal, both sides will be affected, but the EU will be able to spread the impact across 27 countries. We'll have no choice but to bear the brunt of it. Having a slightly better trade deal with Australia in 5 years time won't help that. The EU doesn't want that to happen, but from their point of view us crashing out without a deal is the lesser of 2 evils. The alternative is that we get all the benefits of EU membership while being able to flout all their rules, flood their marketplace with crap, and single-handedly wreck the whole founding principle of the EU forming in the first place! This was all said before the referendum and it's been consistent in the 2 years since, yet the EU are seen as being unreasonable because of it.

[foxbat]

I accept idler's point that I have generalised ( to make a point ),
about the demographics. The Facts are , however , that come 10 years after the referendum vote approximately 25% of the leave vote will have died off.
now, there are already 1.5 Million new voters , who were unable to vote at the time and who are at least 90% in favour of Europe.

So when the likes of the mail , sun and express ( all owned by people who want to avoid next years EU clampdown on offshore tax dodging) want to talk about,
the ' will of the people' , you have to ask if future generations should be unwillingly tied to the will of dead people.

Many will be in London tomorrow , marching  for ( an essential ! ) People's Vote

Have you got your placards ready? #RoadTrip #PeopesVoteMarch

PS also , previewing the post coming in , don't kid yourself , the leave campaign's ' they need us more than we need them ' is just one of the lies, and the EU are not going to 'cave in '

[BillyStubbsTears]

Boomstick.

The whole issue really is very, very simple. Hold your nose for a moment and go through these points 1 by 1 and tell me which ones you think are unreasonable.

This is the EU's stance on the Irish border issue. It's been their stance for more than 2 years. Tell me which bits you think are unfair.

The EU says this to us:

1) You want a trade deal with us that gives you benefits after you leave. Great. Let's talk. But be aware that we have a big red line. We're not going to agree to a deal that gives YOU benefits but hurts one of US. Fair?

2) If a deal results in a worse border situation between RoI and NI, that will hurt RoI. That's not fair. They didn't vote for Brexit. You did. So we'll not bend over to help you if you don't make sure that RoI doesn't get hurt. Fair?

3) There's a dead easy way to stop the border being an issue. You can stay inside the CU and SM. Fair?

4) Opinion poll after opinion poll tells us that solution is supported by a big majority in the UK. We KNOW it's not supported by the Tory party, but hey, that's your party's problem. Fair?

5) If you're not prepared to accept that solution then it is your responsibility to tell us what alternative ideas you have. Fair?

6) We've had two years now and you've come up with nothing better than shouting "Technology!" "Switzerland!" We need a bit more than that. Fair?

7) Tell you what. We know you're struggling here so here's a deal. Why don't we just let you stay in the CU and park the border question until you sort out what you want to do? Fair?

Go on BS. Tell me what bit of that gets your goat.

EDIT:
I forgot the final point.

8) What's that you say Mrs May? Your swivel-eyed rabid right wing won't accept 7? Oh dear! This is a mess then isn't it?

And what's that Mrs May? Because of this message, YOU want US to compromise further. I'm not sure you've quite got the hang of this negotiation thing Mrs May! YOU want US to take a big hit to get YOU out of a political mess of your own making? I think you know the answer to that one Mrs May.

So. Looks like you've only got two choices then. Go for the No Deal Brexit that you've been talking about for the past 2 years and lose any chance of us giving you any sort of deal in future. Or face down the Johnsons and Rees-Moggs and Redwoods and Foxes that got you into this f**king mess and do what is right for your country.

[selby]

 Bloody hell billy, did I start all that, people looking for a problem will usually find one, mind the blood pressure.

[Glyn_Wigley]

  Billy, I respect your opinions although I don't agree with lots on this subject, but I would like to know your thoughts on this.
  It was reported this morning that the Republic of Ireland had a meeting with high ranking EU officials and was assured in the event of NO DEAL there  would be NO HARD BORDER with the UK.
  Now come on do a deal and a hard border, no deal and no hard border, that has to be an exposure of putting up a delaying tactic. Add to which because of the different vat and other taxes between the UK and the EU the bloody border already works efficiently already to both sides agreement.
   The cat has been well and truly let out of the bag on this subject mate.

They can work because of the Single Market, it won't with one side of the border not in it. That's why there's no border in the SM.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Well yeah. As I was saying earlier.

https://m.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2189927274665339/

[tommy toes]

It will be interesting to see which way she goes.
If she truly has the good of the country at heart, as she continually claims,then the Customs Union  it is and to hell  with Rees Mogg and the like.
But I won't be holding my breath.

[SydneyRover]

How many buses of brexiteers will driving to the capital to advance their counter argument today, I hope it does't reflect on the gate for today's game.

[Herbert Anchovy]

If there is a ‘People’s Vote’ and Remain come out winners by a score of 51% against 49%, would they then support a third vote? Where does this end?

[hoolahoop]

Interestingly I’ve recently spent some time working in the West Midlands. The landlady of the b&b I stayed with was an Italian who had moved to the U.K. with her English husband some years ago. One evening we began talking about Brexit and the EU and she was surprisingly critical of the EU and the influence it’s having on the country.

Apparently there’s a strong feeling in the country that strict financial rules imposed by the EU mean the Italian Government is restricted in its ability to help the country out of its present financial crisis. That, coupled with a distinctly euro sceptic government is driving anti EU sentiment. They fully expect, and hope, that Italy will be the next country to leave the EU.

Good luck with that one if the Italians were daft enough to go down that road. If we would struggle ( most if not all would agree that ) , then how do you think the Italian economy would stand up to being extra- the EU . They do not have the financial clout to weather the hit on their economy and I fail to see which markets they could develop and with which export products exactly ? Italy is still failing to address their " shadow " economy - how would leaving improve that !

The dangers for their economy outside the EU wouldn't disappear because that would not address the fundamental weaknesses in the structure of the economy. Unless they address the huge divide between North and South and with that the " shadow " economy - I could only see it carrying on deeper into recession.

How do they see the prospects of a post- EU Italy , how do they think this will improve the socio- economic landscape ?

I acknowledge this economy is the 8th largest economy based on GDP but has a large nay huge youth unemployment figure. Once again this seems to be false sentiment over practical common- sense - only a backward step as the best parts of their economy are " picked off ".

It is probably a surprise to many when reading about Italy's woes that it enjoys both a trade surplus ( unlike the UK ) and currently exports some $ 60 billion or so more to the world than the UK.

Seems to me that it would be an ardent Brexiter's dream should Italy follow the direction of the uk . Bringing with it the hope that a swift dis-integration would follow.

[Boomstick]

Boomstick.

The whole issue really is very, very simple. Hold your nose for a moment and go through these points 1 by 1 and tell me which ones you think are unreasonable.

This is the EU's stance on the Irish border issue. It's been their stance for more than 2 years. Tell me which bits you think are unfair.

The EU says this to us:

1) You want a trade deal with us that gives you benefits after you leave. Great. Let's talk. But be aware that we have a big red line. We're not going to agree to a deal that gives YOU benefits but hurts one of US. Fair?

2) If a deal results in a worse border situation between RoI and NI, that will hurt RoI. That's not fair. They didn't vote for Brexit. You did. So we'll not bend over to help you if you don't make sure that RoI doesn't get hurt. Fair?

3) There's a dead easy way to stop the border being an issue. You can stay inside the CU and SM. Fair?

4) Opinion poll after opinion poll tells us that solution is supported by a big majority in the UK. We KNOW it's not supported by the Tory party, but hey, that's your party's problem. Fair?

5) If you're not prepared to accept that solution then it is your responsibility to tell us what alternative ideas you have. Fair?

6) We've had two years now and you've come up with nothing better than shouting "Technology!" "Switzerland!" We need a bit more than that. Fair?

7) Tell you what. We know you're struggling here so here's a deal. Why don't we just let you stay in the CU and park the border question until you sort out what you want to do? Fair?

Go on BS. Tell me what bit of that gets your goat.

EDIT:
I forgot the final point.

8) What's that you say Mrs May? Your swivel-eyed rabid right wing won't accept 7? Oh dear! This is a mess then isn't it?

And what's that Mrs May? Because of this message, YOU want US to compromise further. I'm not sure you've quite got the hang of this negotiation thing Mrs May! YOU want US to take a big hit to get YOU out of a political mess of your own making? I think you know the answer to that one Mrs May.

So. Looks like you've only got two choices then. Go for the No Deal Brexit that you've been talking about for the past 2 years and lose any chance of us giving you any sort of deal in future. Or face down the Johnsons and Rees-Moggs and Redwoods and Foxes that got you into this f**king mess and do what is right for your country.

Didn't say anything got my goat old lad. Just said what I think will happen.

[hoolahoop]

If there is a ‘People’s Vote’ and Remain come out winners by a score of 51% against 49%, would they then support a third vote? Where does this end?

Technically youre right this would be a 3rd vote . Bear in mind that the original vote was for a Common Market with further integration and co- operation in all areas as specified in the very 1st agreement. Then of course we have just had this farcical referendum built on lies, exaggerations and omissions as well as major breaches of electoral law.

A win of 37% of the electorate should never have been set for a Referendum in the 1st place . It was naive to think that any result resulting in a less than 50%win could cause a major problem.

The size of the vote is irrelevant, only the margin of victory and that in this case is not clear -  it is infinitesimal . If this had been a horse race , Brexit would have won by a " head " not 5/6 lengths as is inferred in every Brexiters or MSM  comment.

Do I think there should be another vote - yes I believe the original one will be seen to be so tainted that it should have been voided ....irrespective of the numbers . What about the 13,000,000 that didn't vote do they think they should now given the unfolding ( forgive me ) deal . Ffs what a mess and no I don't have any answers.

Where does this end ? Good question - I only know it doesn't look as though there's an easy answer do you ? You would reject another vote on this issue to when..........The time it takes to get in the financial mess we were in the late 60/70s. Have you forgotten those days , believe me they were far from halcyon....the genie of English nationalism is out of the bottle and there's no way I can think of to put it back in . Let's face it that's what all of this has been about - the stats tell us this . It's understandable given that the English have felt largely ignored as a nation - they no longer have the affinity to the Union they once had. There have been separate institutions set up in Scotland, Wales and of course N.Ireland but when have the English had their say on anything but for this one chance whipped up by the Daily rags owned by foreigners spewing out spurious unchallenged facts. The English by and large aren't racist by nature but exceptionalists and have been for a millennia however this was distorted by the constant racist headlines before ,during and after the campaigns.
Indeed even now many English people would cut loose both N.Ireland and Scotland from the " precious " Union if it eased the progress of Brexit.

Personally , without Labour support there won't be a 3rd Referendum. Meanwhile the EU is signing up deals here, there and everywhere