Brexit Negotiations

[BillyStubbsTears]

HA

I may be wrong about this, but my understanding is that it was written into the Galileo agreement that third-party countries were not allowed access to security-critical aspects of the project.

We want to be a third-party country. And we wanted those clauses not to apply to us.

Regarding negotiating with individual countries, what do you expect? Brexit supporters had crowed about how they would play divide and rule by making deals with individual countries on beneficial terms to us, and weaken the collective EU negotiating position. If the EU proved stronger than that, whose fault is that?

[Herbert Anchovy]

Billy,

No you’re not wrong, you’re absolutely spot on regarding Galileo. However, as with most things with Brexit it’s far more complicated. The UK has played an integral part in the design and development of Galileo as well as contributing a significant amount towards the funding. It’s success is also reliant on access to UK sensor stations in the South Atlantic.

The Commission took a very robust view of UK exclusion from the project where, we would be significant contributors but not be able to benefit from using it! Numerous countries including The Netherlands, Spain and even France were unhappy with the EU approach and have encouraged the EU to maintain closer ties with the U.K. in the meantime Australia are waiting in the wings to work with the UK on a rival project should the issue not be resolved.

Now, I’m sure that even you would agree that this is an entirely unreasonable action by the EU?

[Glyn_Wigley]

We are special. We are better than the feckless, bone-idle, cheating wasters over the Channel, and when we threaten to leave, they'll shite it and give us whatever deal we want.

We are better than a bunch of arrogant square heads backed up by their garlic munching, turn coat friends and numerous tin pot, beetroot soup swigging no-hopers.

This from the man who came out with 'Disgusting comment' above.

[BillyStubbsTears]

HA

Ok. I'll take the Galileo issue as a piece of hard bargaining.

As far as stopping us negotiating independently with other countries, maybe the EU were doing us a favour...

https://mobile.twitter.com/davidschneider/status/1067433184130809859?s=19

[SydneyRover]

I really do not understand the constant squealing coming from those that want to resign their membership of the club but still want to buy cheap beer over the bar and have their kids go to the xmas party.

[Herbert Anchovy]

HA

Ok. I'll take the Galileo issue as a piece of hard bargaining.

As far as stopping us negotiating independently with other countries, maybe the EU were doing us a favour...

https://mobile.twitter.com/davidschneider/status/1067433184130809859?s=19

Billy,

One mans hard bargaining could be another mans petty points scoring in this case.

And regarding the independent negotiations, yes I do take your point in this case...

[Herbert Anchovy]

I really do not understand the constant squealing coming from those that want to resign their membership of the club but still want to buy cheap beer over the bar and have their kids go to the xmas party.

Sydney,

Who’s squealing? I’m merely trying to point out that the EU isn’t the glorious utopia that you, and others, are claiming it is!

Using your Club analogy, I’m all for a club where we enjoy ‘cheap beer’ but I don’t want to be part of a club that tells me what to drink and how much.

[SydneyRover]

I really do not understand the constant squealing coming from those that want to resign their membership of the club but still want to buy cheap beer over the bar and have their kids go to the xmas party.

Sydney,

Who’s squealing? I’m merely trying to point out that the EU isn’t the glorious utopia that you, and others, are claiming it is!

Using your Club analogy, I’m all for a club where we enjoy ‘cheap beer’ but I don’t want to be part of a club that tells me what to drink and how much.

Well I think you're going to have to give up the cheap beer bit as well, because as the gdp continues to plummet in comparison to other countries that retain their membership the money will have to come from somewhere. Austerity has only worked for those able to enjoy generous tax cuts and I don't see any other plans plans except some vague notion of dealing with the ''free world'' because the deal being offered pleases no one. How are this governments best negotiators going to get these better trade deals when after two years they are still at first base with brexit. And why have they been unable to get a deal from the EU that is considered a good deal? the answer is easy, think about it for a minute and have us swap places with any of the other 27 countries, if the shoe, boot or clog was on the other foot would we let another country cash in their membership and still be happy for them to get cheap beer and let their kids go to the xmas party?

[SydneyRover]

Philip Hammond: Brexit will leave UK economy worse off

All forms of Brexit will make the UK worse off but Theresa May's plan is the best available, says Philip Hammond.

Analysis of the prime minister's Brexit deal shows the economy will be "slightly smaller" after 15 years, he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

The Treasury will set out various scenarios - with the Daily Telegraph saying it will predict £150bn in lost output over 15 years under no deal - compared with if the UK stayed in the EU - with Theresa May's plan costing £40bn.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46366162

With the best plan Britain loses 40 billion (est) ????

[drfchound]

I really do not understand the constant squealing coming from those that want to resign their membership of the club but still want to buy cheap beer over the bar and have their kids go to the xmas party.

Sydney,

Who’s squealing? I’m merely trying to point out that the EU isn’t the glorious utopia that you, and others, are claiming it is!

Using your Club analogy, I’m all for a club where we enjoy ‘cheap beer’ but I don’t want to be part of a club that tells me what to drink and how much.

Well I think you're going to have to give up the cheap beer bit as well, because as the gdp continues to plummet in comparison to other countries that retain their membership the money will have to come from somewhere. Austerity has only worked for those able to enjoy generous tax cuts and I don't see any other plans plans except some vague notion of dealing with the ''free world'' because the deal being offered pleases no one. How are this governments best negotiators going to get these better trade deals when after two years they are still at first base with brexit. And why have they been unable to get a deal from the EU that is considered a good deal? the answer is easy, think about it for a minute and have us swap places with any of the other 27 countries, if the shoe, boot or clog was on the other foot would we let another country cash in their membership and still be happy for them to get cheap beer and let their kids go to the xmas party?

So, as I have asked on here before, who has got a better Brexit plan that the EU would accept.
If there was a change of government, would say. Labour, be able to get a better deal?
Would the other nations let us cash in our membership and still have the benefit of dealing with them to our advantage?
If I remember correctly, didn’t TM vote to remain in the EU.
In her position as PM she is now doing her job of trying to get the best she can because the vote went the way it did.
Would a different PM or Party have been able to achieve better?

[BillyStubbsTears]

That is shocking reporting by the BBC. Totally misrepresents the facts.

The forecast is NOT that No Deal leaves us £150bn worse off after 15 years. It is that GDP will be £150bn lower.

The BBC article suggests that we would lose £150bn of wealth. Full stop. But the figures say we would, by that time, be losing £150bn EVERY YEAR!

That is the entire NHS and Defence budgets. Gone. Permanently.

Absolute f**king stupidity to even countenance a situation like that, never mind actively want it.

[drfchound]

That is shocking reporting by the BBC. Totally misrepresents the facts.

The forecast is NOT that No Deal leaves us £150bn worse off after 15 years. It is that GDP will be £150bn lower.

The BBC article suggests that we would lose £150bn of wealth. Full stop. But the figures say we would, by that time, be losing £150bn EVERY YEAR!

That is the entire NHS and Defence budgets. Gone. Permanently.

Absolute f**king stupidity to even countenance a situation like that, never mind actively want it.

But, as my previous post asks, what alternative has anyone else put forward and who can deliver something better that the EU would accept.

[bobjimwilly]

Would a different PM or Party have been able to achieve better?

I don't think anyone would, because there is no better economic plan than staying in the largest trading bloc in the world FFS!

The state of politics is disgusting; no-one in Government dares speak the truth and admit staying in the EU is the best option because they are scared they will lose their seat in the next election. We're talking about the FACT we will lose billions a year for the next decade (at least), all for the potential to do trading deals with other countries (which no-one wants to name yet?) and we'll be able to stop a few thousand european immigrants moving here. It's a f**king shit show.

[drfchound]

Would a different PM or Party have been able to achieve better?

I don't think anyone would, because there is no better economic plan than staying in the largest trading bloc in the world FFS!

The state of politics is disgusting; no-one in Government dares speak the truth and admit staying in the EU is the best option because they are scared they will lose their seat in the next election. We're talking about the FACT we will lose billions a year for the next decade (at least), all for the potential to do trading deals with other countries (which no-one wants to name yet?) and we'll be able to stop a few thousand european immigrants moving here. It's a f**king shit show.

At last, someone who agrees with me and isn’t afraid to say so.
It isn’t just the government that is disgusting though bjw  is it, it is all parties.

[bobjimwilly]

At last, someone who agrees with me and isn’t afraid to say so.
It isn’t just the government that is disgusting though bjw  is it, it is all parties.

It's frustrating that Labour haven't backed remain or the people's vote yet (although some individual MP's have); again because certain politicians are looking after themselves first. I won't include JC in that because he is actually sticking to the same story he's had for decades, although he should at least come out and admit leaving now is a bad idea.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

At last, someone who agrees with me and isn’t afraid to say so.
It isn’t just the government that is disgusting though bjw  is it, it is all parties.

It's frustrating that Labour haven't backed remain or the people's vote yet (although some individual MP's have); again because certain politicians are looking after themselves first. I won't include JC in that because he is actually sticking to the same story he's had for decades, although he should at least come out and admit leaving now is a bad idea.

He won't though, I suspect the comments of his brother more closely match his real thoughts.

But it's a situation no main party can get to grips with as there are opposing opinions on either side.

Of course measuring the reduced GDP is a very subjective thing and the leavers will jump on that.  It's nigh on impossible to say what would or could happen in another situation hence it will always be an estimate.  People will mostly notice what is lost, not what is not gained through growth.  No doubt when all is done the analysis of the real situation will differ to this forecast - it always does.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Absolutely, the forecasts of effect on GDP are estimates, but they are based on solid economic theory and practical findings.

If you make it more difficult to trade with a large, rich, advanced economic group on your doorstep, you are deliberately choosing to make yourself less efficient and less wealthy. That is what we are doing and that is what the forecasts are predicting.

Raab and the rest of the Brexiteers are already calling these forecasts Project Fear as of course they will. But once again, they are putting nothing whatsoever forward to counter them, other than flag-waving and shouting "We're British! We're special! We will be world leaders once we get out and trade with the rest of the world."

That ignores two facts.

1) The Govt forecasts are already factoring in the benefits of improved trade with the rest of the world. The BBC economics editor says they forecasts make "heroic" assumptions on how quickly we could secure beneficial deals with the USA and China ("heroic" being a diplomatic way of saying "utterly unrealistically optimistic"). And the forecast say that this will imporve our GDP by...wait for it... wait for it...0.2% of GDP.

2) We have experience of the effect of being outside the European trading bloc. We were outside from 1955 to 1975. During that time, the economies of France, West Germany and Italy all moved from being much smaller than ours to being bigger or as big as ours. They grew rapidly. We grew slowly. From 1975 to 2010 (until the lunacy of Austerity) our economy grew faster than any of those three countries.

We're now choosing to go back to where we were before. And choosing to put ourselves onto a slower growth path than the rest of Europe. It is boneheaded stupidity, and the result of two generations of Little Englanders on the Right and in the media (and a few flat-earth far-left numbskulls) telling us that all our problems are due to Europe.

[BillyStubbsTears]

But.

This is all far from over.

There's little chance of May getting the deal through Parliament. She's insisting that if she doesn't, the only alternative is a No Deal Brexit. That will not happen. The Tory party is already making plans for what to do when she is humiliated in the Parliamentary vote in a fortnight. The whispers at the moment are that they will knife her, put the process on hold and have a second referendum.

[Donnywolf]

Why not cut to the chase now and instead of 6 days of Debate and then a Vote - have those MPs who have no intention of voting for this Agreement show their displeasure by not attanding the First Debate

There may be only 150 or so MPs there - and that should tell HER that this is a complete waste of time and will not succeed in getting a "Yes" from Parliament and a Meaningful Vote could be held there and then ***


*** Well it could be held once the supposed majority of MPs that hate it drift back in and vote

[albie]

I'm glad to see that we are now to have on offer the relief of a frictionless Brexit.
 
There does however seem a slight logical disconnect between Maybot's national you-will-be-persuaded tour and 'no, you can't have another vote about it'.

Strangely, the media pack do not seem to realise that these positions are incompatible.

I have given up the will to live over Treeza and her reptilian retinue.
Once the HoC reject her dogs dinner, presumably the grim reapers from 1922 will have finished edging their blade.

Corbyn has played a blinder by doing nowt.
Getting involved takes the heat off the Maybot, and Labour needs to avoid alienating potential voters from both sides of the fence.

Better to wait for Treez to douse herself in a highly flammable toxic policy, rely on her innate stubbornness to dig in, then let the Tory plotters light the blue touchpaper!

Sit back and enjoy!
After all, you are paying for it....through the nose!

[BillyStubbsTears]

By the way. Once May has been dispensed with, this will be used as the training video for the Johnson, Raab, Gove and Rees-Mogg campaigns.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1067364193907744768

[drfchound]

But.

This is all far from over.

There's little chance of May getting the deal through Parliament. She's insisting that if she doesn't, the only alternative is a No Deal Brexit. That will not happen. The Tory party is already making plans for what to do when she is humiliated in the Parliamentary vote in a fortnight. The whispers at the moment are that they will knife her, put the process on hold and have a second referendum.

..........and it isn’t so long ago that I was being told by someone on here that there was no chance of a second referendum.

[wilts rover]

Just a slight addenda to the above. The forecasts released this morning, which have been very badly reported by the BBC, do not show a modelling of the deal May agreed at the weekend. They show her Chequer's deal.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/28/pmqs-brexit-analysis-is-meaningless-corbyn-tells-may

[BillyStubbsTears]

But.

This is all far from over.

There's little chance of May getting the deal through Parliament. She's insisting that if she doesn't, the only alternative is a No Deal Brexit. That will not happen. The Tory party is already making plans for what to do when she is humiliated in the Parliamentary vote in a fortnight. The whispers at the moment are that they will knife her, put the process on hold and have a second referendum.

..........and it isn’t so long ago that I was being told by someone on here that there was no chance of a second referendum.

Well they were wrong then. There was always a chance of a second referendum. All it needs is a situations where the Govt see it as the least bad alternative.

[tommy toes]

The latest news confirms what BST has been banging on about for months.
ALL options for leaving the EU range from bad to disasterous.
We need another vote when hopefully the electorate will come to their senses and overturn the 2016 debacle.

[i_ateallthepies]

But.

This is all far from over.

There's little chance of May getting the deal through Parliament. She's insisting that if she doesn't, the only alternative is a No Deal Brexit. That will not happen. The Tory party is already making plans for what to do when she is humiliated in the Parliamentary vote in a fortnight. The whispers at the moment are that they will knife her, put the process on hold and have a second referendum.

I so much hope it does happen BST, but if it does we Remainers need to get off our arses and VOTE!

[BillyStubbsTears]

The point is that it is now unarguable that the Leave case in 2016 was utter nonsense.

We were told that we could have all the benefits of trade with the EU and none of the disadvantages.

We were told that the EU would be pleading with us to cut a deal.

We were told that we would be better off outside.

That was the central theme of the Leave campaign. And every single bit of it is now demonstrably wrong.

Anyone who says that there is no case for revisiting the decision doesn't really believe in democracy.

[Herbert Anchovy]

I think that there will be another vote, and have done for a while. I think that remain will win and that this will create an unholy storm of trouble that will make where we are now look like a walk in the park.

There is absolutely no way on earth the Brexit side will simply disappear. There are EU elections in 2019 and their support will be galvanised by any betrayal on the 2016 result. If (and it’s a big if) we have a political party that commits to fully leaving the EU they will gain lots of seats in the European Parliament and cause chaos.

Another vote isn’t going to make this go away. Instead we’re going to have the OTHER half of the country pissed off.

[Herbert Anchovy]

The point is that it is now unarguable that the Leave case in 2016 was utter nonsense.

We were told that we could have all the benefits of trade with the EU and none of the disadvantages.

We were told that the EU would be pleading with us to cut a deal.

We were told that we would be better off outside.

That was the central theme of the Leave campaign. And every single bit of it is now demonstrably wrong.

Anyone who says that there is no case for revisiting the decision doesn't really believe in democracy.

IF there is a second vote, the remain side need to convince partial Euro Sceptics such as me of the advantages of staying in the EU. They monumentally screwed up last time. I don’t want to stay in the EU because it’s the best of a bad lot. I want to understand exactly how the EU benefits every man, woman and child in the UK, not just economically but politically.

[BillyStubbsTears]

HA

The advantages are there in today's report. Something between £200bn and £1trn extra economic growth over the next 15 years.

It's blindingly obvious.