Brexit Negotiations

[BillyStubbsTears]

And who is going to champion that as an option?

[albie]

Anyone who has an interest in a resolution once logjam Maybot is removed!

There is a Tory support base opposed to the Brexit fundamentalists. They are still the government, post Treeza, unless we get a GE.

I do not think the EU would kick up a fuss if the UK came back with that solution.

I am not advocating this, merely suggesting it may give an option to "no deal" once the HoC rejects the May plan.

No Deal suits nobody!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Norway Option implies freedom of movement and (I think) ECJ. There is absolutely no point going for that because it satisfies no-one. It would be much better than May's deal, but it is such a watered down Brexit that virtually no one on the Leave side will accept it. And it's not as good as simply remaining for the Remain side.

[Glyn_Wigley]

One of the things I heard this morning, on the news, is that some MPs are planning to abstain in the vote or even be absent from Parliament on the day of the vote.

WTF is that all about?

Surely they are elected to add their weight to such decisions, not dodge them.

All bar 7 Labour MP's (+ the 4 independent Labour) have confirmed they will vote against May's deal. Out of these 11 only 1 has said she will vote for it - go on have a guess which constituency she represents....

https://evolvepolitics.com/here-are-the-12-labour-mps-who-are-considering-voting-for-theresa-mays-brexit-deal/

Wilts, as a political expert (not being funny by the way) can you tell me how many of the Labour MP's who are going to vote against Mays proposed deal are from a constituency which voted to leave.
Also, how many are there who are actually going to vote against it please.

You're not still clinging to this ridiculous notion that MPs should vote the way their constituency voted in the referendum are you? That would mean May should vote against her own deal!!

[Glyn_Wigley]

Glynn, eye get rid of them too, give everything to the EU, we pay them enough, let them look after us.

I thought we paid way, way more to fund local and national government.

[albie]

BST

You can read a bit more about "Norway Plus" here;
http://betterbrexit.org.uk/

I can't vouch for the accuracy of the explanation given, but it is under active consideration by key players under the radar.

The important starting point is who holds sway in the Tory party after Treeza's exit?

The landscape of the possible changes on the other side of her departure. Gove, Johnson and Rees Smug have soiled themselves with large swathes of the party.

So who will hold power in the Tory government short of a GE?
They will not be constrained by red lines set out by others.

[Glyn_Wigley]

BST

You can read a bit more about "Norway Plus" here;
http://betterbrexit.org.uk/

I can't vouch for the accuracy of the explanation given, but it is under active consideration by key players under the radar.

The important starting point is who holds sway in the Tory party after Treeza's exit?

The landscape of the possible changes on the other side of her departure. Gove, Johnson and Rees Smug have soiled themselves with large swathes of the party.

So who will hold power in the Tory government short of a GE?
They will not be constrained by red lines set out by others.

No, the important starting point is if this option won't get through Parliament it's just as much a dead duck as the current deal.

[albie]

Glyn,

The parliamentary numbers are completely different to May's deal.

The SNP are likely to support it, as are other minority groups. Significant numbers of Labour and Tory MP's are likely to do so as well.

The government will not have the HoC votes to carry ANY decision from their own party. The only prospect of a HoC approval is via cross party support.

It very much matters who the next head of government is......the individual needs to be able to secure the numbers to get a resolution through!

[SydneyRover]

BST

You can read a bit more about "Norway Plus" here;
http://betterbrexit.org.uk/

I can't vouch for the accuracy of the explanation given, but it is under active consideration by key players under the radar.

The important starting point is who holds sway in the Tory party after Treeza's exit?

The landscape of the possible changes on the other side of her departure. Gove, Johnson and Rees Smug have soiled themselves with large swathes of the party.

So who will hold power in the Tory government short of a GE?
They will not be constrained by red lines set out by others.

No, the important starting point is if this option won't get through Parliament it's just as much a dead duck as the current deal.

I can't see any reason that this headless chicken dance will not continue for some time with desperate scrambles/shambles for extensions, but to do what, repeat play? my prediction some time ago was that the government would fail to get agreement May would be forced to resign which would be the trigger for a general election and that if Corbyn did not change to support a peoples vote he would have to go too.

From there it's anyone guess, as mine is.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Albie

Do you see the issue here. One that some of us have been banging on about to anyone who will listen, for more than 30 months now.

Brexit was never a thing.

It was an umbrella term for a multitude of things.

Everything from BINO, to your Norway +, to the May Deal, to Canada+, to WTO/No Deal.

None of that was discussed in 2016.

Not a moment of discussion about the pros and cons.

So, if we now have a specific Brexit foisted on us, someone high up (the elite, maybe...eh?) will be saying that this is what all of those 52% voted for.

But here's the thing.

There's far more distance between BINO and No Deal than there is between Norway+ and Remain.

So I'm still struggling to see why, now that we have options in front of us and a far clearer view than in 2016, we don't go for a second referendum.

f**k it. Put Norway+ on the ballot too and make it a 3-round/4-choice vote.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Glyn,

The parliamentary numbers are completely different to May's deal.

The SNP are likely to support it, as are other minority groups. Significant numbers of Labour and Tory MP's are likely to do so as well.

The government will not have the HoC votes to carry ANY decision from their own party. The only prospect of a HoC approval is via cross party support.

It very much matters who the next head of government is......the individual needs to be able to secure the numbers to get a resolution through!

I don't know where you get the idea of the SNP supporting any version of something they've been completely against all the way from the beginning.

[Yargo]

go for a second referendum.

f**k it. Put Norway+ on the ballot too and make it a 3-round/4-choice vote.

But that would leave you and Tony Blair, Lord Kinnock of Brussels, Lord Mandelson with no vote, you know what about the Ever Closer Union option? Single currency, no borders, more billions in British financial contributions, after all until the Peoples Vote in 2016 that is what you were in favour of no? How many pro EU leaders of any EU country have said they wanted Britain to stay in EU with no change, come on Professor Stubbs name them

[Filo]

I’m in favour of a 2nd referendum, despite voting leave last time, my vote would also change to remain

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yargo's been kidnapped and replaced by the Daily Express "Write a random word salad headline" bot.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Yargo's been kidnapped and replaced by the Daily Express "Write a random word salad headline" bot.

That implies that there's been a noticeable change in posting style. I've not noticed one!

[Yargo]

Ooh my aching sides, shouldn't you two be on the French coast stopping all these French people trying to escape the EU using inflatable boats?

Funny how all the pro-EU, Ever Closer Union ones have disappeared like a fart in the wind.

Perhaps you can explain the consequences if Britain had voted 80-90% in favour of EU? After all that's what you wanted and you do know every eventual outcome of everything?

Perhaps Blairites like Billy's Sanctimonious Twaddle aren't in favour of a British Macron any longer?
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/alastair-campbell-macron-heir-to-blair-1-5369270

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/17/emmanuel-macron-helps-rich-get-richer-sleep-claims-ex-french/

[Glyn_Wigley]

The defence rests.

[MachoMadness]

The Russian bot factory turned Yargo on again! Nice one.

[The Red Baron]

I think we can probably discount May's deal but I think Norway plus is a serious option. We would of course stay in the Single Market, and the plus bit would presumably involve a Customs Union, hence solving the Northern Irish problem without needing the Backstop.

It would mean we leave the political institutions and things like the CAP and CFP. I think the SNP and at least half of Labour MPs could support it.

Apparently Amber Rudd is the main person in the Government driving it. If May falls I would expect Rudd to stand for the leadership or back someone with similar views - maybe Hunt or Hammond.

[The Red Baron]

Glyn,

The parliamentary numbers are completely different to May's deal.

The SNP are likely to support it, as are other minority groups. Significant numbers of Labour and Tory MP's are likely to do so as well.

The government will not have the HoC votes to carry ANY decision from their own party. The only prospect of a HoC approval is via cross party support.

It very much matters who the next head of government is......the individual needs to be able to secure the numbers to get a resolution through!

I don't know where you get the idea of the SNP supporting any version of something they've been completely against all the way from the beginning.

The SNP are pro-Remain, of course, but their sticking point appears to be retaining membership of the Single Market. They would get that with Norway Plus.

I'm far from convinced that a second referendum would produce a different result to the 2016 one. Remainers may think that staying in the Single Market is a better outcome than risking losing another referendum.

[RedJ]

The SNP will back whatever they think will get them most support for a run at an independence referendum. I've lived in Scotland in SNP heartland and I know exactly what they're like. Do as I say not as I do.

[The Red Baron]

The SNP will back whatever they think will get them most support for a run at an independence referendum. I've lived in Scotland in SNP heartland and I know exactly what they're like. Do as I say not as I do.

Paradoxically, leaving without a deal would probably strengthen their hand in trying to get IndyRef2.

[BillyStubbsTears]

True TRB, but I don't think that they, zealots that they are, would want a situation where the economy of by far their strongest trading partner was crippled.

Might have been different if Salmons was still at the helm and being funded by the Kremlin.

[The Red Baron]

Bloody forum! I just posted a lengthy screed about the Tory leadership post-May only for it to disappear. Anyway, the upshot was that I think Sajid Javid will be the next PM.

[The Red Baron]

True TRB, but I don't think that they, zealots that they are, would want a situation where the economy of by far their strongest trading partner was crippled.

Might have been different if Salmons was still at the helm and being funded by the Kremlin.

I would have thought the UK and in particular the Scottish economy going into recession would be grist to the IndyRef mill.

[RedJ]

The SNP will back whatever they think will get them most support for a run at an independence referendum. I've lived in Scotland in SNP heartland and I know exactly what they're like. Do as I say not as I do.

Paradoxically, leaving without a deal would probably strengthen their hand in trying to get IndyRef2.

Aye, but they're trying to kid their cult into thinking they can just 'take' the UK's place if they got independence. And trying to ignore the fact that independence would take them out of the EU anyway, and a whole load of things I won't go into would keep them from getting right back in. But anyway, I'm going off topic here...

[albie]

Looks like Nicola is up for it, Glyn;
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/27/norway-plus-brexit-option-is-winning-support-says-nicola-sturgeon

Subject to the numbers stacking up, of course!

[The Red Baron]

I'm sure I read somewhere that Gove is keen on Norway Plus. That would be a turn up.

[GazLaz]

This thread is going to be longer than the actual Brexit bill itself.

[BillyStubbsTears]

True TRB, but I don't think that they, zealots that they are, would want a situation where the economy of by far their strongest trading partner was crippled.

Might have been different if Salmons was still at the helm and being funded by the Kremlin.

I would have thought the UK and in particular the Scottish economy going into recession would be grist to the IndyRef mill.

It would. But Scotland would be perma-f**ked if R-UK had a no deal Brexit.