Brexit Negotiations

[BillyStubbsTears]

This thread is going to be longer than the actual Brexit bill itself.

Well, there's more intelligent thought and comment in this thread than anything that's dribbled out of May's gob, this past two years. She's currently insisting that it's her deal or No Deal, which is the most boneheadedly stupid bullshit. It doesn't even work as a threat, because there's not a single MP who believes she could take us out with No Deal even if she wanted to.

[GazLaz]

This thread is going to be longer than the actual Brexit bill itself.

Well, there's more intelligent thought and comment in this thread than anything that's dribbled out of May's gob, this past two years. She's currently insisting that it's her deal or No Deal, which is the most boneheadedly stupid bullshit. It doesn't even work as a threat, because there's not a single MP who believes she could take us out with No Deal even if she wanted to.

I don’t know if this has been mentioned on here before because I only read the odd page but...

Is it possible that self admitted remainder Mrs May has put together a deal that she knows won’t get passed by parliament to force a second referendum? I’m not usually a big conspirory theorist but could it be possible?

[Bentley Bullet]

This thread is going to be longer than the actual Brexit bill itself.

Well, there's more intelligent thought and comment in this thread than anything that's dribbled out of May's gob, this past two years. She's currently insisting that it's her deal or No Deal, which is the most boneheadedly stupid bullshit. It doesn't even work as a threat, because there's not a single MP who believes she could take us out with No Deal even if she wanted to.

I don’t know if this has been mentioned on here before because I only read the odd page but...

Is it possible that self admitted remainder Mrs May has put together a deal that she knows won’t get passed by parliament to force a second referendum? I’m not usually a big conspirory theorist but could it be possible?

You're not alone with that thought.

[drfchound]

One of the things I heard this morning, on the news, is that some MPs are planning to abstain in the vote or even be absent from Parliament on the day of the vote.

WTF is that all about?

Surely they are elected to add their weight to such decisions, not dodge them.

All bar 7 Labour MP's (+ the 4 independent Labour) have confirmed they will vote against May's deal. Out of these 11 only 1 has said she will vote for it - go on have a guess which constituency she represents....

https://evolvepolitics.com/here-are-the-12-labour-mps-who-are-considering-voting-for-theresa-mays-brexit-deal/

Wilts, as a political expert (not being funny by the way) can you tell me how many of the Labour MP's who are going to vote against Mays proposed deal are from a constituency which voted to leave.
Also, how many are there who are actually going to vote against it please.

You're not still clinging to this ridiculous notion that MPs should vote the way their constituency voted in the referendum are you? That would mean May should vote against her own deal!!

Why would you ask me that?
My question to Wilts was nothing to do with you.

As for May, she is having to try to sort out a Brexit deal that she personally didn’t want to happen isn’t she.

[Muttley]

This thread is going to be longer than the actual Brexit bill itself.

Well, there's more intelligent thought and comment in this thread than anything that's dribbled out of May's gob, this past two years. She's currently insisting that it's her deal or No Deal, which is the most boneheadedly stupid bullshit. It doesn't even work as a threat, because there's not a single MP who believes she could take us out with No Deal even if she wanted to.

I don’t know if this has been mentioned on here before because I only read the odd page but...

Is it possible that self admitted remainder Mrs May has put together a deal that she knows won’t get passed by parliament to force a second referendum? I’m not usually a big conspirory theorist but could it be possible?

This whistle stop tour of the country meeting real people and her desire to have a televised debate, smacks of an election/referendum campaign.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Not a chance Gaz.

You're assigning her a level of political cunning, control and selflessness that she has never once shown in her career.

She's been thinking of nothing but how to keep:

a) the Tory party (that doesn't have enough votes to secure any specific Brexit) from tearing itself apart whilst ensuring that...
b) her historical reputation isn't  trashed as the PM who took us into the darkness of a No Deal Brexit (which would be the greatest foreign policy catastrophe since 1939) and trying all the time to keep
c) herself in power.

Look at it through that lens and everything she's done in the last 27 months makes sense. Especially when you factor in the idea that she's really not very good.

She unilaterally decided that Brexit would be interpreted as us leaving the CU, SM and ECJ in her Lancaster House speech in early 2017 and she insisted on a firm Brexit date. That was monumentally stupid because it immediately restricted her negotiating position, and future historians will tear their hair out over it.  But she did it to polish her credentials as someone who believed in "Brexit meaning BREXIT" (f**king stupid phrase, but there you go) and to show that she meant business.

That won her cred with the Right, and she hoped to then be able to row back on that by then having an adult negotiation with the EU, and having the authority to push a moderate BREXIT deal through Parliament.

To do that, she needed the authority of a thumping Parliamentary majority.

So she called a GE in 2017 and it was hers to lose. Any vaguely competent PM would have won a 100 seat majority, starting the campaign where she did. But she proved herself unable to function in front of human beings and lost her majority.

Since then, it's been utter panic. She's been shown up as out of her depth and it's been open season for anyone to slag her off. Make no mistake. That is not normal. In fact it's unheard of. The way Johnson and others publicly humiliated her without being sacked has NEVER happened in any of our lifetimes. Any other PM would sack senior ministers who publicly critised them.  Not May. That how weak her position is.

And that weakness explains her scatterbrained negotiating. Agree to one thing with the EU. Tell the Tory right you haven't agreed to that, to save them from rebelling. Tell moderate Tories you'd make sensible concessions. Tell the Tory right No deal is better than a bad deal. Because she had to try to please all her party just to survive.

An utter f**king shambles.

Now she's cobbled together a dog's breakfast of a deal that satisfies no-one. Not for some nefarious reason. But because it's the best she could salvage. And she's now in MayBot mode, saying, vote this down and it's No Deal Brexit. Which no-one believes.

If she loses the vote in Parliament badly enough to trigger a move towards a referendum, she's gone that same night. And she goes down as the most inept PM in 200 years. No politician wants that epitaph. Even if she was talented enough to pull the sort of stunt you suggest (which she isn't, not by a million miles) she's too much pride to sacrifice her reputation like that.

[SydneyRover]

Looking back over this process from where Cameron made that fateful decision to have a vote is there anyone here that can say something positive about how this government has performed in any way at all, never mind just brexit is there anything at all that they have done that the majority would say ''well done guys, you got it right'' ?.

[bobjimwilly]

Twitter poll: https://twitter.com/PaulDanefield/status/1067877720053428226?s=19

[Donnywolf]

Looking back over this process from where Cameron made that fateful decision to have a vote is there anyone here that can say something positive about how this government has performed in any way at all, never mind just brexit is there anything at all that they have done that the majority would say ''well done guys, you got it right'' ?.

Not one single thing.

[Yargo]

Yargo's been kidnapped and replaced by the Daily Express "Write a random word salad headline" bot.

Ah you Blairites against the Express now?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2003/oct/27/uk.pressandpublishing

[Yargo]

Now then who is Viking Chat's biggest Blairite?
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2002/may/16/bbc.dailyexpress

[wilts rover]

You've got that the wrong way round Wilts.

100 Lab and 75 Con were the number of seats estimated to have vote Remain, not Leave.

More than likely Billy.

These are the interesting charts that show the drift of opinion changing in Labour constituences.

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-mps-remain_uk_5bff95a6e4b08506231974eb?h1&utm_hp_ref=uk-homepage

[wilts rover]

If she loses the vote in Parliament badly enough to trigger a move towards a referendum, she's gone that same night. And she goes down as the most inept PM in 200 years. No politician wants that epitaph. Even if she was talented enough to pull the sort of stunt you suggest (which she isn't, not by a million miles) she's too much pride to sacrifice her reputation like that.

Two other major factors to consider:

Her whole political career has been defined by one thing, controlling immigration, which we can't do in the EU.

If it had been up to May there wouldn't be a vote in Parliament, she had to be taken to court to accept there should be one.

Although just to make things even more interesting there is increasing speculation now that there wont be one as the government will pull the vote if they believe they are going to loose by a huge margin and then..... (insert wild speculative theory here)...

[Not Now Kato]

Here's a very intelligent guys take on Brexit.  Leave voters would do well to view it....
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYonSZ8s3_o
 

[SydneyRover]

Here's a very intelligent guys take on Brexit.  Leave voters would do well to view it....
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYonSZ8s3_o

thanks NNK,
It's an accurate take on what's happened, but will the hard core brexiteers want to watch it or watch a couple of minutes and turn it off, will they want to know how they have been manipulated and brainwashed, will they admit to believing,repeating and retelling the mistruths and distortions, will they ever want to examine the facts surrounding brexit and reset their thinking or will they continue with the lemming/roadrunner attitude where the risk of dropping off a cliff is nil until you realise you're out in mid-air.

[SydneyRover]

While the jockeying goes on about the debate with who should be included, surely there should be a fact check team on hand to call out any lies and exaggerations from anyone?


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-tv-debate-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-second-referendum-no-deal-bbc-itv-a8662881.html

[Donnywolf]

This thread is going to be longer than the actual Brexit bill itself.

Well, there's more intelligent thought and comment in this thread than anything that's dribbled out of May's gob, this past two years. She's currently insisting that it's her deal or No Deal, which is the most boneheadedly stupid bullshit. It doesn't even work as a threat, because there's not a single MP who believes she could take us out with No Deal even if she wanted to.

I don’t know if this has been mentioned on here before because I only read the odd page but...

Is it possible that self admitted remainder Mrs May has put together a deal that she knows won’t get passed by parliament to force a second referendum? I’m not usually a big conspirory theorist but could it be possible?

I have thought something similar for "long enough". I too dont read many things on here and I have not seen that theory mentioned before but for me it has "legs" and was perhaps why "they" the ones wanting out did not want her to be in charge of the very proceedings to "take us out" *

* Sorry - I should have said as she would have done "Thus (NOT) respecting the Vote of the British people" which she manages to slip (not effortlessly sometimes) into every single answer she gives on any B****t questions

[BillyStubbsTears]

Aye, aye.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46435128

Beginning of a rapid end for May.

[Filo]

Aye, aye.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46435128

Beginning of a rapid end for May.

When a Government does things like this, that is the end of democracy

[BillyStubbsTears]

Be interesting when Parliament votes on this.

Presumably the entire Opposition plus 40-50 Hard Brexit Tory MPs will vote to to accuse the Govt of contempt. I'm struggling to think of any PM ever surviving losing a vote like this. It would be an utter humiliation.

But then again, May has demonstrated for the past two years that she has no understanding of the concept of public humiliation so who knows? We're off the edge of the cliff and the normal rules no longer seem to apply.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Be interesting when Parliament votes on this.

Presumably the entire Opposition plus 40-50 Hard Brexit Tory MPs will vote to to accuse the Govt of contempt. I'm struggling to think of any PM ever surviving losing a vote like this. It would be an utter humiliation.

But then again, May has demonstrated for the past two years that she has no understanding of the concept of public humiliation so who knows? We're off the edge of the cliff and the normal rules no longer seem to apply.

Corbyn lost the backing of all his mps, he's still there.

But just publish it.  The vast majority don't actually care. The Westminster bubble strikes again.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BFYP

Corbyn's an entirely different issue.

This is about PARLIAMENT, not an intra-atomic squabble. Parliament is sovereign. Parliament passed a motion saying that the FULL legal advice should be published.

It's not for the Govt to decide. Parliament is a higher authority than the Govt. This is about how our democratic system works. That's not something for the PM to ride roughshod over, or the entire system is f**ked.

And the content does matter. It matters very much.

Cabinet leaks suggest that the full advice basically says what the Hard Brexiters have been saying. That May's deal means that we have no prospects of getting out of the NI Backstop.

May is insisting that the backstop is irrelevant. But if she's been advised differently by the Govt's top legal adviser, that means 2 very important things.

1) She has deliberately misled Parliament. And there will be a clear and unambiguous evidential trail. No PM survives that. Period.

2) Any right wing Tory who was wavering on whether to vote against May's deal will have their will reinforced. And if she loses THAT vote by a large margin, she's gone. 

THAT is why she can't have it published. Because once it is published, her career is over. So she is going to deliberately and wilfully face down an instruction from Parliament.

You obviously don't get how big a deal this is. This simply does not happen. A PM who refuses to abide by the expressed will of Parliament is contravening the basic concept of our democracy. That's not a Westminster bubble thing. It's how democracies fall apart.

[SydneyRover]

On a brighter note: UK can stop article 50 without EU approval, top ECJ adviser says.

Campos Sánchez-Bordona said he believed EU law allowed the UK to revoke article 50 without requiring the formal agreement of the European commission or other EU member states.


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/04/uk-can-stop-article-50-without-eu-approval-top-ecj-adviser-says

[GazLaz]

BST, are MPs expecting to find any skeletons in the closet when the full leagal advice is now going to be disclosed or are they just trying to weaken May further by pulling her on a technicality?

[BillyStubbsTears]

There was a leak from a cabinet minister over the weekend that hints that the AG's opinion is rather less risky than he said in Parliament yesterday.

Given that May has repeatedly lied about what she said to whom throughout the Brexit negotiations, I'd say it's a fair bet that there is something very bad for her in the full document, and that's why she would rather the Govt be found to be in contempt of Parliament than publish it.

The line about the convention being that Govt keeps its internal advice documents secret is true, but this is an utterly exceptional situation. This is the biggest decision we have taken since the War and exceptional times call for exceptional decisions.

If the full document supported May's deal unambiguously, she would find a reason to publish it.

[GazLaz]

That’s what I thought, to go to this degree to try and conceal what is contained in the document it must be pretty damning.

[albie]

Given that the AG gives the government LEGAL advice, and that he is duty bound to give impartial advice in house, it is reasonable to think that the action the government has taken, or is about to take, is open to challenge in the courts.

This raises the question that if May has with-held relevant information from the HoC,  which is necessary to understand the implications of a decision, then she has misled parliament by omission.

As others say, if there was no smoking gun there would be no reason to delay and obscure.

Looking like the Tower for the Maybot!

[RedJ]

What are the consequences legally of doing what May has done here? is it 'just' being booted out of the House etc or are there more serious potential outcomes for her?

[Donnywolf]

I HATE Politicians and here is why ....

May has just kicked off the debate trying to sell her Deal / Agreement

She said "lets look how we got here - and mentioned the 1975 Referendum saying the People voted to stay in at that point but even then she said 33% of those voting wanted to leave " She failed to say of course that 66% or so voted to Remain a 33% Majority !!!

She then leapt to 2016 where she then said " In the biggest Democratic Vote ever held over 17.4 Million said they wanted to leave" She failed to say that was 51% or a bit more whereas nearly 49% voted to  Remain.

So she made a right meal of saying 33 % the first time round wanted to Leave whereas 49% in 2016 wanted to stay which she totally lefy out of her speech
So nearly 50% more voted to Remain the second time than the 33% that she originally highlighted from 1975 and she simply did not mention that / them.

I hate them all with a passion but especially Mrs One Liner
Strong and Stable Government (repeat ad nauseum then lose your Majority)
We must respect the will / vote of the British people (repeat ad nauseum and hope something turns up)
PLANK

[GazLaz]

What are the consequences legally of doing what May has done here? is it 'just' being booted out of the House etc or are there more serious potential outcomes for her?

Live out the rest of her life in the Tower of London.