The 10 game run

[VikingRich]

It was an amazing run - and if any one of those 10 had been a draw we would not have made the playoffs. It really does sink in how we were on a knife edge for all 10 games.

[Fal]

Had we lost all 10 we would've gone down after finishing bottom!

[BillyStubbsTears]

It was an amazing run - and if any one of those 10 had been a draw we would not have made the playoffs. It really does sink in how we were on a knife edge for all 10 games.

That's why this achievement was so unlikely.

The odds against us winning all those 10 games were at least 10,000/1.

The odds against us winning any 10 of the last 11 were at least 1000/1.

[Dutch Uncle]

It was an amazing run - and if any one of those 10 had been a draw we would not have made the playoffs. It really does sink in how we were on a knife edge for all 10 games.

That's why this achievement was so unlikely.

The odds against us winning all those 10 games were at least 10,000/1.

The odds against us winning any 10 of the last 11 were at least 1000/1.

Out of interest are you using bookies odds on each individual game? If so, chapeau

One model is to assume that a win, draw and defeat are equally likely in each match. In that case the probability of winning 10 in a row is one over 3 to the power 10, or 1/59049, and the probability of winning any 10 or more of 11 is about a tenth of that

[BillyStubbsTears]

It was an amazing run - and if any one of those 10 had been a draw we would not have made the playoffs. It really does sink in how we were on a knife edge for all 10 games.

That's why this achievement was so unlikely.

The odds against us winning all those 10 games were at least 10,000/1.

The odds against us winning any 10 of the last 11 were at least 1000/1.

Out of interest are you using bookies odds on each individual game? If so, chapeau

One model is to assume that a win, draw and defeat are equally likely in each match. In that case the probability of winning 10 in a row is one over 3 to the power 10, or 1/59049, and the probability of winning any 10 or more of 11 is about a tenth of that

I'm working on the assumption that on average we'd have been at least 6/4 (40%) for each match. So that gives the probability of ten straight wins as 0.4^10=0.00010 or roughly 10,000/1. against


 I think 33% is a bit too low as draws are generally less than half as likely as one side or other  winnning.

As regards the 10 or more of 11, I also worked on the figure of it being roughly 10 times more likely than a straight 10.

Pascal's Triangle is a big help.

PS.

I should say I think the actual odds per game would have averaged out at something like 7/4. In which case I'd be a bit on the low side at 10,000/1 and DU's 60,000/1 would be a bit high.

Wherever the true figure is, it's a stunningly unlikely outcome.

[Wokingviking]

It was an amazing run - and if any one of those 10 had been a draw we would not have made the playoffs. It really does sink in how we were on a knife edge for all 10 games.

That's why this achievement was so unlikely.

The odds against us winning all those 10 games were at least 10,000/1.

The odds against us winning any 10 of the last 11 were at least 1000/1.

If you factor in the necessary collapse of Barrow and Crewe in the same period for us to get 5th place with just 71 points (which must be improbable in itself most seasons?)… what odds of that?

[GazLaz]

It was an amazing run - and if any one of those 10 had been a draw we would not have made the playoffs. It really does sink in how we were on a knife edge for all 10 games.

That's why this achievement was so unlikely.

The odds against us winning all those 10 games were at least 10,000/1.

The odds against us winning any 10 of the last 11 were at least 1000/1.

If you factor in the necessary collapse of Barrow and Crewe in the same period for us to get 5th place with just 71 points (which must be improbable in itself most seasons?)… what odds of that?

If I get chance later I’ll try and find some historical spread betting lines from January. They will give as good a prediction as anything as to the number of points predicted to be needed for a 7th place finish at that point in time.

[Dutch Uncle]

It was an amazing run - and if any one of those 10 had been a draw we would not have made the playoffs. It really does sink in how we were on a knife edge for all 10 games.

That's why this achievement was so unlikely.

The odds against us winning all those 10 games were at least 10,000/1.

The odds against us winning any 10 of the last 11 were at least 1000/1.

Out of interest are you using bookies odds on each individual game? If so, chapeau

One model is to assume that a win, draw and defeat are equally likely in each match. In that case the probability of winning 10 in a row is one over 3 to the power 10, or 1/59049, and the probability of winning any 10 or more of 11 is about a tenth of that

I'm working on the assumption that on average we'd have been at least 6/4 (40%) for each match. So that gives the probability of ten straight wins as 0.4^10=0.00010 or roughly 10,000/1. against


 I think 33% is a bit too low as draws are generally less than half as likely as one side or other  winnning.

As regards the 10 or more of 11, I also worked on the figure of it being roughly 10 times more likely than a straight 10.

Pascal's Triangle is a big help.

PS.

I should say I think the actual odds per game would have averaged out at something like 7/4. In which case I'd be a bit on the low side at 10,000/1 and DU's 60,000/1 would be a bit high.

Wherever the true figure is, it's a stunningly unlikely outcome.

Many thanks and extremely reasonable.

BTW I have always loved Pascal's triangle.  I recently wrote a very rough short memoir called 'Goedel, Pascal, Wesley' (a nod to the remarkable book Goedel, Escher, Bach), referencing Pascal's wager as part of my own non-Python thoughts about 'the meaning of life'. I took a copy of the triangle to the memoirs group when I read it out.

[Dutch Uncle]

It was an amazing run - and if any one of those 10 had been a draw we would not have made the playoffs. It really does sink in how we were on a knife edge for all 10 games.

That's why this achievement was so unlikely.

The odds against us winning all those 10 games were at least 10,000/1.

The odds against us winning any 10 of the last 11 were at least 1000/1.

If you factor in the necessary collapse of Barrow and Crewe in the same period for us to get 5th place with just 71 points (which must be improbable in itself most seasons?)… what odds of that?

If I get chance later I’ll try and find some historical spread betting lines from January. They will give as good a prediction as anything as to the number of points predicted to be needed for a 7th place finish at that point in time.

That would be a terrific effort 

[PDX_Rover]

Rovers forum in Open University shocker.

[StocksArmy]

As gutted as I am we didn't break the record, In a weird way I am glad its ended. Kind of brings everybody back to earth and reminds us that we still have a lot of work to do. There are far too many over confident supporters for my liking. Yes, we have been great but, this wont be easy and we need to put in another 3 massive performances as well as hope we stay clear of injuries and suspensions.

[Ye-Aul-Tavern]

I was quite disappointed on Saturday but have forgotten about it now. On to the next (rather important) game.

[Dutch Uncle]

Rovers forum in Open University shocker.

Not OU, nothing so grand or educational. U3A if that means anything, for us (very) oldies

Edit: And by the way one of the group is treasurer of Bangor FC (Northern Ireland version) - they just missed out on a playoff last weekend when their rivals scored an unexpected 91st min winner against the crowned champions. They know all about DRFC, McCann and our run........and not just from me I add     

[Dutch Uncle]

As gutted as I am we didn't break the record, In a weird way I am glad its ended. Kind of brings everybody back to earth and reminds us that we still have a lot of work to do. There are far too many over confident supporters for my liking. Yes, we have been great but, this wont be easy and we need to put in another 3 massive performances as well as hope we stay clear of injuries and suspensions.

Mixture of a wake-up call and monkey off our back

[RoversInSpain]

Pascal’s Triangle?, is that in any way similar to Sammy Chung’s Diamond?

[Colemans Left Hook]

things like this happen it is callled life

example 1


https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/55657090#:~:text=Liverpool%27s%2068-game%20unbeaten%20home%20run%20in%20the%20Premier,spot%20to%20secure%20a%20famous%20victory%20for%20Burnley.

THURSDAY 21ST JANUARY 2021

Liverpool's 68-game unbeaten home run in the Premier League came to an end as Ashley Barnes fired in a late winner

from the penalty spot to secure a famous victory for Burnley.


and

https://www.standard.co.uk/sport/football/liverpool-fc-six-premier-league-home-defeats-at-anfield-b922670.html

TOM DOYLE
7 MARCH 2021 a couple of months later

Liverpool made history on Thursday night as Chelsea consigned the champions to their five League home defeat in a row - and Fulham extended the Reds’ miserable losing streak on Sunday.

Thursday’s defeat was Liverpool’s fifth consecutive League defeat at Anfield - the first time the club had lost five in a row in the top flight in their 129-year history.

Fulham headed to Merseyside in the relegation zone for Sunday’s Premier League clash, though the Cottagers have been in fine form - and Mario Lemina’s first-half goal consigned Liverpool to a record sixth home League loss in a row.

While defensive injuries have dealt Klopp a band hand, the goals have dried up at the other end as Liverpool gone eight League games at home without a win.

what were the odds of a team that was unbeaten at home for 68 games in a row losing 6 in a row ????



example 2



now for Chesterfield this season after winning the title they amazingly lost 5 matches in a row  (as one X Rover sobered up) also impossible you say


Gaz Laz don't waste your time instead look at how Crawley put 4 goals past that Mansfield "statue" defence "on the day"

by the way Dutch Uncle is the cleverest person on this site by a mile and i knew that  before he exhibited his knowledge  on this thread  he will understand  about :PROBABILITY : & the theory of securitisation   and in theory it couldn't fail  (probabilIty zero)  but it did and effectively bankrupted the world as we know it

"THE DETTORI- 7" FACTOR

if i told you that when you pay your credit card (receivables) you were GIVING to a "charity" you would not believe me

that is all part of a probabilty "game"