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Did Whitty just let it slip that restrictions to go on all year?
Quote from: no eyed deer on January 05, 2021, 08:30:03 pmQuote from: BillyStubbsTears on January 05, 2021, 07:55:29 pmQuote from: Nudga on January 05, 2021, 07:34:44 pmDid Whitty just let it slip that restrictions to go on all year? Of course they will in some form. We need to vaccinate 50 million people with two doses to get the whole population covered. We might get 2 million doses a week if we do very well. Do the numbers.Once the most vulnerable are vaccinated, the restrictions can get easier but they won't be totally dropped until enough of the whole population has been done. BST - do you really think the government will vaccinate 50m ?I suppose you think HS 2 will go beyond Birmingham?Two choices.1) We do and we start to get back to normal from Summer onwards.2) We don't and this f**ker grinds on.I assume that everyone who refuses to be vaccinated will now belt up and stop complaining about being inconvenienced by lockdowns.
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on January 05, 2021, 07:55:29 pmQuote from: Nudga on January 05, 2021, 07:34:44 pmDid Whitty just let it slip that restrictions to go on all year? Of course they will in some form. We need to vaccinate 50 million people with two doses to get the whole population covered. We might get 2 million doses a week if we do very well. Do the numbers.Once the most vulnerable are vaccinated, the restrictions can get easier but they won't be totally dropped until enough of the whole population has been done. BST - do you really think the government will vaccinate 50m ?I suppose you think HS 2 will go beyond Birmingham?
Quote from: Nudga on January 05, 2021, 07:34:44 pmDid Whitty just let it slip that restrictions to go on all year? Of course they will in some form. We need to vaccinate 50 million people with two doses to get the whole population covered. We might get 2 million doses a week if we do very well. Do the numbers.Once the most vulnerable are vaccinated, the restrictions can get easier but they won't be totally dropped until enough of the whole population has been done.
AL.I'll admit, I tend to be blunt when things are straightforward.Regarding the post you were referring to, as far as I can see, we do only have those two alternatives.You only get over an epidemic by achieving Herd Immunity. There are only two ways to do that. 1) Vaccinate 60-70% of the population. 2) Allow 60-70% of the population to catch the virus. If we go the second route, with a pretty well-established Infection Fatality Rate of around 1%, you are looking at 3-400,000 COVID deaths. If you let them happen in one wave it will be an apocalypse like you cannot imagine. If you want to smooth it out, you need repeated lockdown/release/lockdown cycles for 2-3 years.There isn't any other solution. We keep hearing people say "Just shield the vulnerable and let everyone else catch the virus." But that's nonsense. There are anything between 10-20million people in the country who are particularly vulnerable to COVID. How do you shield all them? People say requisition hotel rooms and lock them away in there. Which sounds great. Except there are only 800,000 hotel rooms in the entire country. There genuinely isn't any alternative to ongoing lockdowns or mass vaccinations. People who oppose both are just indulging their right to be the Abominable No-Man. Saying "no" to everything.
But am I correct in saying that even if have taken the vaccine it still doesn't stop you spreading it? I'm sure I heard some boffin saying that the other day.
Case numbers are getting very concerning now. The leader of Manchester City council has said the cities hospitals are in danger of falling over. Whatever that means I don't think it's good. They reckon a third of the cases they are seeing are new varient.The vaccine won't be causing the growth in new varient Covid. It's designed for the original form.
Quote from: River Don on January 06, 2021, 06:11:41 pmCase numbers are getting very concerning now. The leader of Manchester City council has said the cities hospitals are in danger of falling over. Whatever that means I don't think it's good. They reckon a third of the cases they are seeing are new varient.The vaccine won't be causing the growth in new varient Covid. It's designed for the original form.Can the PCR test differentiate between the old varient, the new varient or the vaccine varient?Or cold you might have had 3 months ago?
RD.The reports I've seen say they don't yet know for certain that the vaccine will reduce transmission, but that it would be unusual if it didn't.
Ldr.I wouldn't expect the vaccine to be having much effect on transmission yet.1) Only about 2% of the population have had the jab.2) It takes a couple of weeks to reach full effectiveness.3) Most of those innoculated are very old and won't be the ones spreading the virus.Very scary numbers you're seeing there though. Good luck!