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NED.I don't get this "no lockdown but take precautions to protect others" line.What do you think lockdown is for?And how exactly do you protect others without lockdown?
Quote from: albie on January 08, 2021, 09:16:33 pmThe number of NHS beds has reduced over the last 20 years, at the same time as the population has risen, and the number of over 65 patients has increased.https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/nhs-hospital-bed-numbersThis is a political decision.So why would you do this?.......ask Matt Hancock, he wrote a book about the reason why.Change in model of care and improvement in medical procedures, you are discharged when you no longer need the hospital, not when fully recovered. Example 3 years ago I had a cartridge operation on my knee. 20 years ago that would have been a 3 day stay. 3 years ago I was home the same day so you are comparing apples and pears Albie
The number of NHS beds has reduced over the last 20 years, at the same time as the population has risen, and the number of over 65 patients has increased.https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/nhs-hospital-bed-numbersThis is a political decision.So why would you do this?.......ask Matt Hancock, he wrote a book about the reason why.
Quote from: Ldr on January 09, 2021, 01:04:37 pmQuote from: albie on January 08, 2021, 09:16:33 pmThe number of NHS beds has reduced over the last 20 years, at the same time as the population has risen, and the number of over 65 patients has increased.https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/nhs-hospital-bed-numbersThis is a political decision.So why would you do this?.......ask Matt Hancock, he wrote a book about the reason why.Change in model of care and improvement in medical procedures, you are discharged when you no longer need the hospital, not when fully recovered. Example 3 years ago I had a cartridge operation on my knee. 20 years ago that would have been a 3 day stay. 3 years ago I was home the same day so you are comparing apples and pears AlbieLdr,I was not making an apples and pears comparison, simply highlighting the information.Yes, the report makes it clear that the nature of demand changes over time.The report also concludes that: "Current levels of occupancy mean the average hospital in England is at risk of being unable to effectively manage patient flow leaving it vulnerable to fluctuations in demand. In its 2020/21 operational plan for the NHS, NHS England and Improvement announced that the long period of reducing the number of beds across the NHS should not be expected to continue."The issue is whether the system has reserve capacity to manage outside the normal range of winter demand.Recent experience suggests not, despite the excess demand being forecasted (by SAGE) in advance.
Ldr,It isn't an unknown, we know about periodic pandemics, the last big one being in 1918. In some respects we have been lucky to go for so long without something like this emerging sooner. We are lucky in that this one has not been more deadly. These things happen infrequently but we know they happen. Governments have been aware of the risk but down the years have become complacent.
Quote from: albie on January 09, 2021, 02:30:39 pmQuote from: Ldr on January 09, 2021, 01:04:37 pmQuote from: albie on January 08, 2021, 09:16:33 pmThe number of NHS beds has reduced over the last 20 years, at the same time as the population has risen, and the number of over 65 patients has increased.https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/nhs-hospital-bed-numbersThis is a political decision.So why would you do this?.......ask Matt Hancock, he wrote a book about the reason why.Change in model of care and improvement in medical procedures, you are discharged when you no longer need the hospital, not when fully recovered. Example 3 years ago I had a cartridge operation on my knee. 20 years ago that would have been a 3 day stay. 3 years ago I was home the same day so you are comparing apples and pears AlbieLdr,I was not making an apples and pears comparison, simply highlighting the information.Yes, the report makes it clear that the nature of demand changes over time.The report also concludes that: "Current levels of occupancy mean the average hospital in England is at risk of being unable to effectively manage patient flow leaving it vulnerable to fluctuations in demand. In its 2020/21 operational plan for the NHS, NHS England and Improvement announced that the long period of reducing the number of beds across the NHS should not be expected to continue."The issue is whether the system has reserve capacity to manage outside the normal range of winter demand.Recent experience suggests not, despite the excess demand being forecasted (by SAGE) in advance.Well you build your system to cope with known factors, not once in a lifetime unknowns
Quote from: Ldr on January 09, 2021, 01:04:37 pmQuote from: albie on January 08, 2021, 09:16:33 pmThe number of NHS beds has reduced over the last 20 years, at the same time as the population has risen, and the number of over 65 patients has increased.https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/nhs-hospital-bed-numbersThis is a political decision.So why would you do this?.......ask Matt Hancock, he wrote a book about the reason why.Change in model of care and improvement in medical procedures, you are discharged when you no longer need the hospital, not when fully recovered. Example 3 years ago I had a cartridge operation on my knee. 20 years ago that would have been a 3 day stay. 3 years ago I was home the same day so you are comparing apples and pears AlbieLdr,I was not making an apples and pears comparison, simply highlighting the information.Yes, the report makes it clear that the nature of demand changes over time.The report also concludes that: "Current levels of occupancy mean the average hospital in England is at risk of being unable to effectively manage patient flow leaving it vulnerable to fluctuations in demand. In its 2020/21 operational plan for the NHS, NHS England and Improvement announced that the long period of reducing the number of beds across the NHS should not be expected to continue."The issue is whether the system has reserve capacity to manage outside the normal range of winter demand.Recent experience suggests not, despite the excess demand being forecasted (by SAGE) in advance.
NRTake a big deep breath. Look at the excess death numbers. And ask yourself why we have had so many.
Yet still we spend more on health than ever before, continue to have a fully free health service for all (unlike most countries in the world) and continue to see the % of public finances spent on health increase.I wonder how we could increase it further? Tax rises? Would that go down well?
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on January 09, 2021, 06:49:20 pmNRTake a big deep breath. Look at the excess death numbers. And ask yourself why we have had so many.BST the death total can fluctuate by 10,000s a year. We need transparency and we dont have it !
Quote from: Ldr on January 09, 2021, 02:37:57 pmQuote from: albie on January 09, 2021, 02:30:39 pmQuote from: Ldr on January 09, 2021, 01:04:37 pmQuote from: albie on January 08, 2021, 09:16:33 pmThe number of NHS beds has reduced over the last 20 years, at the same time as the population has risen, and the number of over 65 patients has increased.https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/nhs-hospital-bed-numbersThis is a political decision.So why would you do this?.......ask Matt Hancock, he wrote a book about the reason why.Change in model of care and improvement in medical procedures, you are discharged when you no longer need the hospital, not when fully recovered. Example 3 years ago I had a cartridge operation on my knee. 20 years ago that would have been a 3 day stay. 3 years ago I was home the same day so you are comparing apples and pears AlbieLdr,I was not making an apples and pears comparison, simply highlighting the information.Yes, the report makes it clear that the nature of demand changes over time.The report also concludes that: "Current levels of occupancy mean the average hospital in England is at risk of being unable to effectively manage patient flow leaving it vulnerable to fluctuations in demand. In its 2020/21 operational plan for the NHS, NHS England and Improvement announced that the long period of reducing the number of beds across the NHS should not be expected to continue."The issue is whether the system has reserve capacity to manage outside the normal range of winter demand.Recent experience suggests not, despite the excess demand being forecasted (by SAGE) in advance.Well you build your system to cope with known factors, not once in a lifetime unknowns No - you do regular disaster planning so you know your system can deal with an 'expected' disaster.Then when it shows you can't, because you have stripped the service of funding, staff and buildings as it is your political philosophy - you keep it from the publichttps://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/28/exercise-cygnus-uncovered-pandemic-warnings-buried-government/https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/07/what-was-exercise-cygnus-and-what-did-it-find
Quote from: albie on January 09, 2021, 02:30:39 pmQuote from: Ldr on January 09, 2021, 01:04:37 pmQuote from: albie on January 08, 2021, 09:16:33 pmThe number of NHS beds has reduced over the last 20 years, at the same time as the population has risen, and the number of over 65 patients has increased.https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/nhs-hospital-bed-numbersThis is a political decision.So why would you do this?.......ask Matt Hancock, he wrote a book about the reason why.Change in model of care and improvement in medical procedures, you are discharged when you no longer need the hospital, not when fully recovered. Example 3 years ago I had a cartridge operation on my knee. 20 years ago that would have been a 3 day stay. 3 years ago I was home the same day so you are comparing apples and pears AlbieLdr,I was not making an apples and pears comparison, simply highlighting the information.Yes, the report makes it clear that the nature of demand changes over time.The report also concludes that: "Current levels of occupancy mean the average hospital in England is at risk of being unable to effectively manage patient flow leaving it vulnerable to fluctuations in demand. In its 2020/21 operational plan for the NHS, NHS England and Improvement announced that the long period of reducing the number of beds across the NHS should not be expected to continue."The issue is whether the system has reserve capacity to manage outside the normal range of winter demand.Recent experience suggests not, despite the excess demand being forecasted (by SAGE) in advance.Well you build your system to cope with known factors, not once in a lifetime unknowns
Quote from: Ldr on January 09, 2021, 01:04:37 pmQuote from: albie on January 08, 2021, 09:16:33 pmThe number of NHS beds has reduced over the last 20 years, at the same time as the population has risen, and the number of over 65 patients has increased.https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/nhs-hospital-bed-numbersThis is a political decision.So why would you do this?.......ask Matt Hancock, he wrote a book about the reason why.Change in model of care and improvement in medical procedures, you are discharged when you no longer need the hospital, not when fully recovered. Example 3 years ago I had a cartridge operation on my knee. 20 years ago that would have been a 3 day stay. 3 years ago I was home the same day so you are comparing apples and pears AlbieLdr,I was not making an apples and pears comparison, simply highlighting the information.Yes, the report makes it clear that the nature of demand changes over time.The report also concludes that: "Current levels of occupancy mean the average hospital in England is at risk of being unable to effectively manage patient flow leaving it vulnerable to fluctuations in demand. In its 2020/21 operational plan for the NHS, NHS England and Improvement announced that the long period of reducing the number of beds across the NHS should not be expected to continue."The issue is whether the system has reserve capacity to manage outside the normal range of winter demand.Recent experience suggests not, despite the excess demand being forecasted (by SAGE) in advance.
BFYP.All countries are spending more on health year-on-year.Here's a thought. How about if it was sold as, "pay 1% more in income tax and your kids will have 10 years more healthy life than your parents did?"I've never understood this obsession with minimising tax take and ignoring the resultant hit on quality of life.
Quote from: no eyed deer on January 09, 2021, 07:45:01 pmQuote from: BillyStubbsTears on January 09, 2021, 06:49:20 pmNRTake a big deep breath. Look at the excess death numbers. And ask yourself why we have had so many.BST the death total can fluctuate by 10,000s a year. We need transparency and we dont have it ! NED.This feels like bashing my head against a wall but I'll try again.We have had 100,000+ excess deaths this year over the 5 year average.And here's the thing.That has happened WITH THE LOCKDOWN.Given that this virus doubles infections every 3-4 days without mitigation measures, and given that 1% of all people who get it die, have a think how many excess deaths there would have been in the absence of a lockdown.And I'll repeat again. There is only one city in the entire world that had a totally unmitigated COVID outbreak. In Bergamo, 0.6% of all the people in the city died in four weeks.0.6% of the population. In four weeks.Scale that up to the size of the UK. That would be 400,000 deaths. In a month.THAT is what you were saved from by lockdowns. What is it about that that is so hard to grasp?
And what is your point NED? That those lives don't matter?