Let's talk about the Crewe Alexandra second leg

[selby]

  Can we have the same again please from our boys? While I thought we were not exactly at our best we looked far better than Crewe on the day but, it is a big but, all the away teams in non league and the EFL play offs won today, the only home side either still in the competition or not behind in goal difference in the games played today is Crawley who wisely it seems cancelled their match by praying to the gods for a down pour.
   It begs the question is it easier to play away from home in the playoffs? so we cannot afford to think the tie is over, we need to go again, and they have nothing to lose throwing the kitchen sink at us on Friday.
   On the positive side we did well getting the result, we are full of confidence and have a manager that will keep feet firmly on the floor, and knows the perils that can befall a team that takes their eye off the ball and relaxes thinking its all over bar the shouting.
  Our crowd can play a big part in us getting the result we require  and the first goal will be crucial, and the backing of the crowd can play such a big part in the game, if we get nervous the team feel the vibes and could catch the same feelings and get nervous and intimidated, they need us to lift them. and we need them to respond to our encouragement.
  Injuries apart if it is not broken don't try and fix it, so basically the same team if available would be it for me, after all they are the form team in the country with Manchester City so why not.
   Crewe on the other hand would make changes surely if players become available, hardly looking a play off side today and have a lot to do to lift themselves for Fridays game. that however having nothing to lose can inspire performances, and my memory goes back to Yeovil hammering Nottingham Forest from a two goal deficit  at the Forest some years ago, and also they are currently in better away form than they are at home.
   So we still have to complete the job, lose concentration and attention to detail could cost us dearly, Do I expect it to happen? NO I have more faith in our players and management than that.
  Is it possible for Crewe to turn us over? certainly if we are not at it,  Do I expect us to be too confident and get caught out? No, I think we are better prepared and world wise for that, and we have suffered enough this season which could stand us in good stead having the bad times, and the players will not want any more of that with a game at Wembley in their sights.
  So one to get over and the big game then beckons, What do you think? lot's to discuss, lot's to look forward to. lot's depending on our full on support for the team, Please have your say.

[Chris Black come back]

The biggest caveat being this is the do or die game and if form and logic was to be overturned it would be in this game more than any other - but to win this Crewe would have to win in normal time by three clear goals.

They’ve done that only twice away from home in the last six seasons, against Stevenage five seasons ago and against Forest Green at the start of this season. We have scored now in ten consecutive home games.

Crewe winning by three clear goals could happen but on the basis of form over a prolonged period this season, it is not likely to happen.

[drfchound]

Crewe could go through by winning at our place by two clear goals and then winning a penalty shootout.

[Alan Southstand]

Can we have a day just to enjoy that first leg performance? My head is banging after last night’s celebrations in the Sal.

Bumper crowd expected for the second leg, which will go some way to inspire the lads on the field. I’ll take whatever’s coming on Friday because this has been one hell of a ride.

[Frankie Rennie]

Let’s cut the doubts shall we guys? You’re a better team than Crewe, you proved that last night, you’re at home in front of a big noisy crowd and you’ve got a two goal start. How much better a position could you be in? Trust the players and the manager to get you to Wembley just like I do with Wanderers over the Tykes tonight. Both of us are Wembley bound so celebrate it. ;-))

[les@donr]

I think Crewe will have to come out and play leaving them vulnerable at the back which we will be able to exploit. I can see GM playing a 442 formation which will frustrate Crewe.

[IDM]

Crewe will surely go for us - they've nowt to lose.  Makes for an open game, if somewhat tense?

[selby]

  I am more than happy we are a better side, and to be honest we should be expecting us to go through now we showed our determination in yesterdays game, we can draw a lot of confidence from our start to the knock out stages.
  It is  not a time to relax though, Crewe will want and expect to put up a better show in the return leg, and we have to match their effort to allow us to play in the final, the great strike by Biggins that hit the post would have been the ideal cushion if it had gone in.
  An early goal would help settle any nerves, yesterday I thought the occasion intimidated our play for the first thirty minutes when the ball refused to stick up front when Moly and Adelakun were well  marked tight and put under pressure and found it difficult to retain the ball.
  When we settled down we looked easily the better more dangerous side going forward, if we approach this game with the right attitude and put the effort in we can back up yesterdays result and look forward to the final at Wembley.
   The way Crewe's manager talked after the game I would not be surprised if a couple of their injured players are pressed to play Friday, them seeming to have the injury problems we had before Christmas, effecting their end to the season form at the critical time, he certainly gave the impression they would come with the  Kamikaze attitude to the game, and he will have them pumped up something we need to be aware of and snuff out early if possible.

[Upton Rover]

Crewe could go through by winning at our place by two clear goals and then winning a penalty shootout.

Nearly chocked laughing

[normal rules]

I really fancy rovers to get at least one goal this Friday. Which leaves Crewe with a very big ask, their manager will be looking for a quick away goal in this. They will be pressing up the field early on. They cannot play the patient game. I can see crewe lumping it forward at every opportunity. Mcann will be all over this like a rash and will have the squad briefed accordingly. I can see at least one rovers goal on the break in this. And if rovers replicate the first leg score early on to make it 4-0 on agg then it will surely kill them off . All to play for. They’ve given themselves a very good buffer. But they will take nothing for granted.

[ravenrover]

Crewe could go through by winning at our place by two clear goals and then winning a penalty shootout.

Nearly chocked laughing

You been playing mibs?

[wing commander]

   Yes we need to be wary of a fast start, the Crewe fans were saying there bench was stronger than the team last night as they had a couple of big players coming back from injury not quite ready to start. They will start on Friday as will the player on loan from PNE who is back available after a four game ban so a lot of changes for Crewe i suspect.

    They will come at us hard chasing a quick goal so we need to be savvy and pick them off first goal will be crucial. I see GM said that Biggins will be fine and he always planned to take him off, i'm not so sure, one of our players was gesturing to the bench that he needed to come off when they were celebrating so wouldn't be shocked if he doesn't make Friday.

[Mike_F]

Sterry was doing the gesture and practically shouting at Biggo to go down. Like it was a rehearsed routine to get him off and rest if we got to a two goal cushion.

[TheFunk]

Adelakun could barely walk after the game. He did seem to slip when when Biggins scored and took a while to get back up.

[Chris Black come back]

Excluding this season, in the last 20 League Two play off semi final games, away wins have only happened in 20pc of ties and of these, only one was by more than two goals.

[drfchound]

Crewe could go through by winning at our place by two clear goals and then winning a penalty shootout.

Nearly chocked laughing

Please yourself mate.
I am not saying it will happen or that am expecting it to happen.
I was responding to a post which said that Crewe have to beat us by three clear goals to go through to the final and I was saying that they might not have to win by three.

[i_ateallthepies]

I really fancy rovers to get at least one goal this Friday. Which leaves Crewe with a very big ask, their manager will be looking for a quick away goal in this. They will be pressing up the field early on. They cannot play the patient game. I can see crewe lumping it forward at every opportunity. Mcann will be all over this like a rash and will have the squad briefed accordingly. I can see at least one rovers goal on the break in this. And if rovers replicate the first leg score early on to make it 4-0 on agg then it will surely kill them off . All to play for. They’ve given themselves a very good buffer. But they will take nothing for granted.

Agree with this and I think our defenders need to be looking to avoid knocking balls into touch any less than 30yds from the dead ball line, those throw-ins are a proper weapon for Crewe and very nearly gave them success yesterday.

[normal rules]

Adelakun could barely walk after the game. He did seem to slip when when Biggins scored and took a while to get back up.

He slipped a few times at Crewe . I think it was down to the blades he was wearing.

[colincramb]

I just can’t see how we won’t score.

[Chris Black come back]

Again a caveat that Crewe are not on an amazing run of recent form but they have one of the best away records in League Two. Only Stockport and Mansfield (5 losses) managed to avoid defeat less often than Crewe (6 losses).

[NickDRFC]

Again a caveat that Crewe are not on an amazing run of recent form but they have one of the best away records in League Two. Only Stockport and Mansfield (5 losses) managed to avoid defeat less often than Crewe (6 losses).

They finished 6th overall and their away record was 6th best, nothing to write home about. They didn’t lose many but didn’t win a lot either - 10 other teams equalled or bettered their 8 wins in 23 games.

[rich1471]

Again a caveat that Crewe are not on an amazing run of recent form but they have one of the best away records in League Two. Only Stockport and Mansfield (5 losses) managed to avoid defeat less often than Crewe (6 losses).

They have their last 3 away games

[Petche]

I just can’t see how we won’t score.

Me neither. We've scored in our last 19 games!

[Chris Black come back]

Again a caveat that Crewe are not on an amazing run of recent form but they have one of the best away records in League Two. Only Stockport and Mansfield (5 losses) managed to avoid defeat less often than Crewe (6 losses).

They finished 6th overall and their away record was 6th best, nothing to write home about. They didn’t lose many but didn’t win a lot either - 10 other teams equalled or bettered their 8 wins in 23 games.

Their record over the season is that of a good, tight side away from home, that has beaten the very best in this league away from home.

Only Mansfield, Wrexham and oddly AFC Wimbledon conceded fewer goals away from home, and only Stockport and Mansfield had a better away goal difference.

The more important point is probably their underwhelming recent form generally, but a side that has this season beaten Stockport, Mansfield, Barrow, Crawley and Notts County away from home, and scored three at Wrexham in a 3-3 draw, is no team of mugs.

[NickDRFC]

Again a caveat that Crewe are not on an amazing run of recent form but they have one of the best away records in League Two. Only Stockport and Mansfield (5 losses) managed to avoid defeat less often than Crewe (6 losses).

They finished 6th overall and their away record was 6th best, nothing to write home about. They didn’t lose many but didn’t win a lot either - 10 other teams equalled or bettered their 8 wins in 23 games.

Their record over the season is that of a good, tight side away from home, that has beaten the very best in this league away from home.

Only Mansfield, Wrexham and oddly AFC Wimbledon conceded fewer goals away from home, and only Stockport and Mansfield had a better away goal difference.

The more important point is probably their underwhelming recent form generally, but a side that has this season beaten Stockport, Mansfield, Barrow, Crawley and Notts County away from home, and scored three at Wrexham in a 3-3 draw, is no team of mugs.

This season we’ve lost 5-0 at home to Morecambe. A season is a long time.

Just don’t think their away record is anything to make a fuss about when it’s no better than their overall record. It’s only noteworthy if it’s significantly better or worse than where they finished overall in the table, but it’s exactly the same.

[Chris Black come back]

It’s not though really. Clubs will not typically have a relatively better away record than home record. If you are sixth and your away record is sixth, that would all things be equal, be very good. If you finished sixth in the actual table you would typically expect clubs to have a home record a few places higher and an away record a few places lower. That’s because clubs typically obtain most of their points at home. That’s how it works time and again and has done for 130 years nearly.

[GazLaz]

Crewe’s underlying performance data, home vs away, has been very similar throughout the season. Home advantage in L2 equates to about 0.25 goals per game.

[NickDRFC]

It’s not though really. Clubs will not typically have a relatively better away record than home record. If you are sixth and your away record is sixth, that would all things be equal, be very good. If you finished sixth in the actual table you would typically expect clubs to have a home record a few places higher and an away record a few places lower. That’s because clubs typically obtain most of their points at home. That’s how it works time and again and has done for 130 years nearly.

Teams pick up fewer points away from home, granted. You can’t “typically expect clubs to have a home record a few places higher and an away record a few places lower” - it’s impossible. Stockport, Mansfield, Bradford, Crawley, Gillingham, Morecambe, Harrogate, Colchester & Salford all sit higher on the away league table.

Another way to look at it would be the percentage of points accrued away:

Salford - 55%
Harrogate - 52%
Bradford - 49%
Crawley - 49%
Morecambe - 49%
Mansfield - 47%
Stockport - 46%
Crewe - 46%

7 teams with a better away record in that respect. There really isn’t anything remarkable or noteworthy about it.

[Chris Black come back]

I think there has been confusion over the threads, because nobody on here has said it is remarkable nor is anyone making a fuss about this. 

Again, it is true they have one of the best away records in this league (6th best) and it is true that their record over the season is that of a good, tight side away from home, that has beaten the very best in this league away from home.

These are all true statements, neither of which point to Crewe having a remarkable away record.

[selby]

  What we have to do on Friday is try and win and make their away record a little worse over the season than it  presently is, it's as simple as that.