This isn't the Brexit I voted for (part 2)...

[BillyStubbsTears]

Tyke.

You say you don't care what type of Leave we have, as long as we Leave?

So. Would you have been happy with a Norway type deal?

Just a yes or no. No need for a thesis.

[BobG]

Funny how some folk either cannot or will not answer simple questions.... I really cannot think of any reason why that should be.

BobG

[BillyStubbsTears]

There is another, unsettling thing that comes out of your last post Tyke.

There's a touch of egomania. It's all about you and your opinions and views.

Do you consider it possible that other people were...let's say, persuaded into voting Leave when Farage said that we'd end up in an EEA/Norway type position after the vote? When Hannan said "No one, absolutely no-one is suggesting we leave the Single Market"?

Do you think that it undermines your argument that the vote was sacrosanct, when those people deliberately and systematically set out to deceive voters?

[tyke1962]

Tyke.

You say you don't care what type of Leave we have, as long as we Leave?

So. Would you have been happy with a Norway type deal?

Just a yes or no. No need for a thesis.

23k EU laws in force which is 21% of all EU laws .

70% of EU Directives .

17% of EU regulations

Acceptance of the four freedoms .

Annual bill to the EU €1.3bn

No seat at the table .

NO .

[BillyStubbsTears]

Ok. Now we are getting somewhere.

See. Norway isn't in the EU. So we could have a deal like Norway and still have left the EU.

But that wouldn't have been acceptable to you.

And yet. That ballot paper. You was it was crystal clear and unambiguous, what it meant.

Do you understand why I'm having trouble joining the dots here?

[tyke1962]

There is another, unsettling thing that comes out of your last post Tyke.

There's a touch of egomania. It's all about you and your opinions and views.

Do you consider it possible that other people were...let's say, persuaded into voting Leave when Farage said that we'd end up in an EEA/Norway type position after the vote? When Hannan said "No one, absolutely no-one is suggesting we leave the Single Market"?

Do you think that it undermines your argument that the vote was sacrosanct, when those people deliberately and systematically set out to deceive voters?

Billy

I'm a Barnsley lad born and bred we don't do egos and if we did they are knocked out of you pretty sharpish at least they were from my background .

I'm not a mind reader mate  people vote as they vote .

See your going down this route again , people were misled because you got the result you didn't receive , were people misled in 1975 ?

From what I have read myself and documentaries I've watched the people of this country were misled right back from 1971 so if many were then we are all evened up then in my opinion .

Both you and I know politics is a dirty game Billy so let's bin the boy scouts shall we .

Dress it up how you want the electorate are never wrong , the result is the result and in the 2016 referendum the winner took all as far as I could see .

The same has it would be if Remain had won .

[tyke1962]

Ok. Now we are getting somewhere.

See. Norway isn't in the EU. So we could have a deal like Norway and still have left the EU.

But that wouldn't have been acceptable to you.

And yet. That ballot paper. You was it was crystal clear and unambiguous, what it meant.

Do you understand why I'm having trouble joining the dots here?

They aren't in the EU Billy but they may as well be , more fool them in my opinion .

That wouldn't be acceptable to me because the EU are massively impacting on Norway and the Norwegians pay them for the privilege .

That ain't leaving the EU and becoming independent .

[BillyStubbsTears]

I don't recall the word "independent" being on the ballot paper?

It said Remain or Leave.

You said that was crystal clear.

Now you are saying that if we'd ended up in the situation of a country that has never been in the EU, we wouldn't have left.

I'm sure it's clear to you, but I'm really struggling to follow the logic here.

[tyke1962]

I don't recall the word "independent" being on the ballot paper?

It said Remain or Leave.

You said that was crystal clear.

Now you are saying that if we'd ended up in the situation of a country that has never been in the EU, we wouldn't have left.

I'm sure it's clear to you, but I'm really struggling to follow the logic here.

No you asked me a hypothetical question about a Norway style agreement and I provided an answer as to what my view was on that arrangement , as far as I'm aware no such narrative exists and is probably unlikely to do so going forward with future EU negotiations which makes it hypothetical .

What part of LEAVE  the EU doesn't convert to independence free of the EU in it's entirety ?

As in what part of REMAIN doesn't mean full alignment with the EU ?

You know we can play this game till the cows come home so as to fuel your view that you are right and everyone who doesn't share your view is wrong .

As for myself it really is pretty straightforward , Leave won and so they are right because democracy dictates that they are both judge and jury , the same as it did in 1975 and every referendum or GE ever held in this country and the way I would have seen it if Remain had won .

It really is that simple .

I'm from left wing stock Billy , is it an electable flavour as far as the country is concerned , not in a million years .

So that makes us wrong and the electorate right , I have to compromise to keep the Tories out and we work with what we have or we die .

I tend to sleep rather better with a Labour government in power despite them not exactly filling me with joy most of the time but it's still preferable to those feckers .

That's how I see it , not saying I'm right but I'm comfortable in my own skin with it .

We only have one vote each and who is right or wrong is decided by others .

On the referendum in 2016 I'm right and you are wrong because more people ticked my box than they did yours .

It's as simple as that .

[BillyStubbsTears]

But it WASN'T hypothetical in 2016 was it? It was relentlessly rammed down our throats as the Brexit of choice.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://m.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3D0xGt3QmRSZY&ved=2ahUKEwi6zM7b__nnAhUXQkEAHRRlAxUQwqsBMAB6BAgGEAQ&usg=AOvVaw0v2iTLsDSrd_kHuzccm72b

And then immediately after the vote, a Norway deal was called, by the very same people, a betrayal of the Will of the People.

THAT is why I was in favour of a confirmatory referendum. To clarify whether the UK people actually did want the Brexit finally on offer. Forgive me if I get arsey being lectured to by the likes of you about not having respect for people, when you are on the side of far right spivs who deliberately and knowingly lied to people during the referendum campaign.

You see my point?

[SydneyRover]

I suppose it keeps getting back to the fundamental questions for those voting to stay have never ever had an answer to .....................

What are the advantages of leaving the richest trading bloc in the world, who gets those advantages if any?

This is really easy stuff for those determined to leave or it should be and yet here we are absolutely none the wiser, and further the outcomes are dependent on the whim of an unstable person of short attention span that has total contempt mainly I assume for those that voted for him because he would see them as another bunch of lesser intelligent beings stupid enough to swallow his spaff.

Please try to keep ones answers short and to the facts 

[Glyn_Wigley]

I don't recall the word "independent" being on the ballot paper?

It said Remain or Leave.

You said that was crystal clear.

Now you are saying that if we'd ended up in the situation of a country that has never been in the EU, we wouldn't have left.

I'm sure it's clear to you, but I'm really struggling to follow the logic here.

No you asked me a hypothetical question about a Norway style agreement and I provided an answer as to what my view was on that arrangement , as far as I'm aware no such narrative exists and is probably unlikely to do so going forward with future EU negotiations which makes it hypothetical .

What part of LEAVE  the EU doesn't convert to independence free of the EU in it's entirety ?

As in what part of REMAIN doesn't mean full alignment with the EU ?

You know we can play this game till the cows come home so as to fuel your view that you are right and everyone who doesn't share your view is wrong .

As for myself it really is pretty straightforward , Leave won and so they are right because democracy dictates that they are both judge and jury , the same as it did in 1975 and every referendum or GE ever held in this country and the way I would have seen it if Remain had won .

It really is that simple .

I'm from left wing stock Billy , is it an electable flavour as far as the country is concerned , not in a million years .

So that makes us wrong and the electorate right , I have to compromise to keep the Tories out and we work with what we have or we die .

I tend to sleep rather better with a Labour government in power despite them not exactly filling me with joy most of the time but it's still preferable to those feckers .

That's how I see it , not saying I'm right but I'm comfortable in my own skin with it .

We only have one vote each and who is right or wrong is decided by others .

On the referendum in 2016 I'm right and you are wrong because more people ticked my box than they did yours .

It's as simple as that .

Independence free of the EU in its entirety means no trade deal, or indeed any other deal of co-operation.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Tyke.

One last take. Do you accept that the Leave side lied systematically and knowingly throughout the 2016 campaign?

On the Norway deal?
On the £350m/week?
On Turkey being about to join the EU and 80m Turks getting the right to move in next door?

You DO accept those were all lies? Yes?

Only, when I've raised those points in here before, folk tend to say "Yeah. All politicians lie."

Which may or may not be true. But it raises an interesting point. If you vote for a politician in an election and it turns out they deliberately misled you, what's your course of redress? In a democracy, you exercise your right to vote against them next time round.

What you are saying is that in this case, we could be lied to by Farage, Johnson, Gove, Rees-Mogg, Banks, Hannan and plenty more on your side (odd bed fellows for a left-winger but it takes all sorts) and anyone pointing this out and asking what our redress is, is an enemy of democracy.

Is that about the top and bottom of it?

[tyke1962]

But it WASN'T hypothetical in 2016 was it? It was relentlessly rammed down our throats as the Brexit of choice.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://m.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3D0xGt3QmRSZY&ved=2ahUKEwi6zM7b__nnAhUXQkEAHRRlAxUQwqsBMAB6BAgGEAQ&usg=AOvVaw0v2iTLsDSrd_kHuzccm72b

And then immediately after the vote, a Norway deal was called, by the very same people, a betrayal of the Will of the People.

THAT is why I was in favour of a confirmatory referendum. To clarify whether the UK people actually did want the Brexit finally on offer. Forgive me if I get arsey being lectured to by the likes of you about not having respect for people, when you are on the side of far right spivs who deliberately and knowingly lied to people during the referendum campaign.

You see my point?

Billy my intention is never to lecture anybody and people are entitled to form their own views and vote accordingly , I'm very passionate about independent journalism and the facts presented to you and you make your own mind up , something there's not enough of but as an individual what can I do if The Mail is what it is ?

I think I've made my point clearly in that I voted the way I did and wasn't influenced by anybody .

The right and the old left have always been aligned on the EU , are you suggesting Dennis Skinner is the same stock  as Jacob Rees Mogg ?

They are both massively anti EU , absolutely nothing else going on there as I'm sure you'd agree .

The electorate of this country are lied to on a consistent basis , didn't Blair promise an EU referendum too ? , twice I believe in 2004 and 2005 .

It's up to the electorate to seperate the facts from the bullshyte , it's never been easier with the tech today .

Neither you or me can control what people want to believe and to be honest neither of us have that right either .

As I say I'm passionate about independent journalism and let people decide on the facts .

Did you know it was The Yorkshire Post who had the phone call from the mums mother whose little lad was laid on the hospital floor in Leeds during the GE election campaign .

The editor made numerous calls and fact checked it before they broke with it .

Once it was out there the tory media through social media killed it stone dead through deception and lies .

Anyone with half a brain knows the Yorkshire Post is completely independent of political influence and doesn't print lies .

What can you do ?

People believe what they want to believe .

I'm on no nobody's side other than look at the facts as I see them and decide for myself .

Johnson is the biggest shytehouse to ever walk through number 10 , not because the Mirror and Guardian say he is but because the facts say he is a liar , lazy and a record of incompetence in government , it's like shooting fish in a barrel to come to that conclusion if you look at his career and research it .

Some of the young lads at work on £9 an hour think the sun shines out of his @ss .

Waste of time me saying anything , minds are made up , end of .

No I don't have an answer other than support independent journalism .

It's as good as I can do .

[BillyStubbsTears]

I can agree with you on nearly all of that last post Tyke. Except you have more faith than me in "independent" media. The problem is that there are powerful state actors out there doing their damnedest to f**k up our democratic processes by chucking smoke and mirrors into every discussion. I'm very despondent about the future of objective truth in political debate. When anyone can find (apparently) authoritative shit to support their existing opinions, we are on a very slippery slope.

My take is that you have to look at a source's track record. See if they have a history of being proved right or wrong. That's why I flew off the handle when you said you had no faith in economists' predictions. Because there ARE some out there who have been right time and again. And they are all saying Brexit, especially with no deal, will be a massive hit to our economy.

I'm bemused by your confidence that it will all be economically fine. I don't see what you base that on.

[tyke1962]

I don't recall the word "independent" being on the ballot paper?

It said Remain or Leave.

You said that was crystal clear.

Now you are saying that if we'd ended up in the situation of a country that has never been in the EU, we wouldn't have left.

I'm sure it's clear to you, but I'm really struggling to follow the logic here.

No you asked me a hypothetical question about a Norway style agreement and I provided an answer as to what my view was on that arrangement , as far as I'm aware no such narrative exists and is probably unlikely to do so going forward with future EU negotiations which makes it hypothetical .

What part of LEAVE  the EU doesn't convert to independence free of the EU in it's entirety ?

As in what part of REMAIN doesn't mean full alignment with the EU ?

You know we can play this game till the cows come home so as to fuel your view that you are right and everyone who doesn't share your view is wrong .

As for myself it really is pretty straightforward , Leave won and so they are right because democracy dictates that they are both judge and jury , the same as it did in 1975 and every referendum or GE ever held in this country and the way I would have seen it if Remain had won .

It really is that simple .

I'm from left wing stock Billy , is it an electable flavour as far as the country is concerned , not in a million years .

So that makes us wrong and the electorate right , I have to compromise to keep the Tories out and we work with what we have or we die .

I tend to sleep rather better with a Labour government in power despite them not exactly filling me with joy most of the time but it's still preferable to those feckers .

That's how I see it , not saying I'm right but I'm comfortable in my own skin with it .

We only have one vote each and who is right or wrong is decided by others .

On the referendum in 2016 I'm right and you are wrong because more people ticked my box than they did yours .

It's as simple as that .

Independence free of the EU in its entirety means no trade deal, or indeed any other deal of co-operation.

No not at all , it means negotiating a trade deal with a partner in the greater interest of both party's whilst retaining your rights to govern your country free from rules and regulations from that partner .

It's as simple as that .

From what I've researched that's how this thing began in the early days .

But clearly as time rolled on it didn't quite work that way .

[BillyStubbsTears]

Tyke.

Because the EEC/EC/EU did away with more and more barriers to trade. Which was its purpose. And in getting rid of those barriers, the corollary was that we had to have more common standards.

That's not an evil scheme to trap us all. It's made the continent richer, more integrated and safer than it has ever been.

[Ldr]

A thought on ages and the referendum. The "youth", that would likely have voted to remain in the EEC given the result in 75 would have been the "elders" that voted to leave this time round. With age comes wisdom, dont count on today's youth keeping the same opinions

[SydneyRover]

A bit of a round up of what happened ........

We had a vote where most didnt know what they wanted run by a government that didnt explain what was on offer easily subverted by some that did.

We are now at a point where those that voted to leave cant tell us coherently what they wanted or the benefits of what is on offer or what theyll get and a government that doesnt appear to know any of the above. 

[BillyStubbsTears]

A thought on ages and the referendum. The "youth", that would likely have voted to remain in the EEC given the result in 75 would have been the "elders" that voted to leave this time round. With age comes wisdom, dont count on today's youth keeping the same opinions

That would be a really good point.

Except.

In the 1975 referendum, the section of the population voting most heavily to Leave was those aged 18-29, and the section voting most heavily to Remain were those aged over 65.

The most Euro-supporting group was those who had lived through both World Wars. The most Eurosceptic was the Baby Boomers. There appears to be something about that generation. Eurosceptic without really understanding why or having a reason to be. Rebels Without A Cause...

[Ldr]

Fair point Billy, it was just a thought

[BillyStubbsTears]

Surprised me when I looked Ldr.

In fairness, 58% of 18-29s voted Stay in 75 and only 35% of 65+ voted Remain in 2016. So there was a big swing. But then again, there was a swing of about 20% from Stay to Leave between the two votes in the entire population, so that group onkybswung by about the same as the entire population. The really interesting thing is how pro-European old people were in 1975. I'm sure the memory of what happened when Europe (including Britain) was divided in the first half of the 20th century must have had an effect.

[Bentley Bullet]

Maybe since then the general opinion now is that EU membership is an expensive protection racket.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Great timing BB.

https://mobile.twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1234442894951559170

[DonnyOsmond]

A thought on ages and the referendum. The "youth", that would likely have voted to remain in the EEC given the result in 75 would have been the "elders" that voted to leave this time round. With age comes wisdom, dont count on today's youth keeping the same opinions

Wisdom or ignorance?

[tyke1962]

Tyke.

Because the EEC/EC/EU did away with more and more barriers to trade. Which was its purpose. And in getting rid of those barriers, the corollary was that we had to have more common standards.

That's not an evil scheme to trap us all. It's made the continent richer, more integrated and safer than it has ever been.

Billy

The EU is not impervious to a global downturn .

The EU still haven't recovered from the 2008 crash and has shot it's bolt with monetary stimulus which haven't worked .

They have very few weapons left .

Since 2008 the Chinese economy is 140% bigger

The US is 40% .

The EU flatlined .

They've also fall behind in tech and are beholden to the US and far east for tech and business infrastructure .

They will of course know all of this you'd imagine , the big EU players will be under huge pressure to make a good trade deal with ourselves in my opinion .

[BillyStubbsTears]

Tyke

You're setting up straw men constantly.

I have no axe to grind for the EU's performance since the GFC. If you want to have some fun, go back through the archives here and see what I was saying on the subject a decade ago.

The Eurozone made some fundamental and very serious economic mistakes in their economic policy. And yes, as a result, they are a lot less well off than they should be.

But that is irrelevant to this discussion. They are still some of the richest and most productive people on the planet. There's half a billion of them. Right on our doorstep. Gravity trade theory (which is one of THE best established of economic principles says that trade is ALWAYS easier with partners who are closer. We have just decided to erect barriers to that market.

And I assume you saw the figures yesterday? That decision is going to drop our GDP by 4-8%. £90-180bn per year. Lost.

And the best result of a trade deal with the USA will be a boost of 0.22% to GDP. £4bn per year.

Don't try and spin Brexit as some economic opportunity. It's a f**king disaster. The only uncertainty is whether it will be a really REALLY big f**king disaster or just a really big one.

I know you don't believe that, but, frankly, your opinions on that are not really worth much because they aren't based on analysis. They are based on what you want to be true. I take mine from the analyses of economists who actually do this for a living and get this shit right.

[BobG]

How do I show applause?

BobG

[tyke1962]

Tyke

You're setting up straw men constantly.

I have no axe to grind for the EU's performance since the GFC. If you want to have some fun, go back through the archives here and see what I was saying on the subject a decade ago.

The Eurozone made some fundamental and very serious economic mistakes in their economic policy. And yes, as a result, they are a lot less well off than they should be.

But that is irrelevant to this discussion. They are still some of the richest and most productive people on the planet. There's half a billion of them. Right on our doorstep. Gravity trade theory (which is one of THE best established of economic principles says that trade is ALWAYS easier with partners who are closer. We have just decided to erect barriers to that market.

And I assume you saw the figures yesterday? That decision is going to drop our GDP by 4-8%. £90-180bn per year. Lost.

And the best result of a trade deal with the USA will be a boost of 0.22% to GDP. £4bn per year.

Don't try and spin Brexit as some economic opportunity. It's a f**king disaster. The only uncertainty is whether it will be a really REALLY big f**king disaster or just a really big one.

I know you don't believe that, but, frankly, your opinions on that are not really worth much because they aren't based on analysis. They are based on what you want to be true. I take mine from the analyses of economists who actually do this for a living and get this shit right.

The very same experts who have failed to predict 148 out of the last 150 recessions .


https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/sep/02/economic-forecasting-flawed-science-data

[BillyStubbsTears]

If your serious about wanting to understand this Tyke, I'm more than happy to explain.

Predicting recessions is very, very hard. The overall performance level of an economy depends on many different issues. These interact in a non-linear style and make the prediction of the overall level of an economy very hard. On top of that, recessions are often provoked by sudden shocks, which by their very nature, impossible to predict. Two perfect examples are the recessions of 73-75 and 80-82, both of which were set off by decisions of middle Eastern countries to massively increase the price of oil overnight. Criticising an economist for not predicting that is stupid.

On the other hand, predicting the specific relative effect of doing or not doing something very specific is much easier. Predicting the effect of us deciding to make it harder to trade with the EU RELATIVE TO THE BASELINE CASE OF KEEPING EVERYTHING THE SAME is far less challenging. Because you are isolating that one effect.

So in this case, the economists  are categorically not saying that our economy will be precisely THIS or THAT size in ten years time. That's impossible. They are saying our economy will be 4-8% smaller than it would have been if we'd not detected massive barriers to trading with half a billion of the richest people who have ever existed, right on our doorstep.

I know this is a lost cause because you are impervious to these arguments. But what I've just set out above is textbook economic theory. Idiots like that journalist are doing you and society s disservice by criticising economists for not doing what they cannot do, and not informing you about what they can and do get right on a consistent basis.

In this specific case, I tend to take my lead from Professor Simon Wren-Lewis from Oxford.

He set out the case to Gordon Brown that if we joined the Euro, we wouldn't have fiscal independence to do the things we'd need to do to counteract a major economic shock like the GFC. Correct.

He predicted that Austerity would lead to stagnant growth for several years, and wouldn't get the defecit down anywhere near as rapidly as was claimed by Osborne. Correct.

He predicted that the Leave vote would lead to an immediate drop in the Pound, a spike in inflation and several years of below par growth. That is exactly what happened.

He now predicts that leaving the EU on the terms we are likely to do will lead to a deep and permanent reduction in our competitiveness and wealth.

You say it won't.

Would you mind awfully if I totally ignore you and stick with him?