This isn't the Brexit I voted for (part 2)...

[BillyStubbsTears]

Or, maybe you're one of these mates of Michael Gove? You seem to have his disdain for experts who tell you things you don't want to hear. It's the antithesis of being adult. Ignore the evidence of experts with a track record of getting all the big things broadly right. Trust your gut instinct.

Is that what you'd do if you had cancer?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Tyke.

Actually, I've got the perfect analogy for you about economists predicting recessions and whether that means they are shit.

Seismologists cannot predict exactly when an earthquake will strike. There are too many micro features that can affect when the tectonic plates will slip. Just as there are too many interactions in an economy to predict when the economic plates slip and you get a recession.

What seismologists CAN do is to predict, broadly, what the effects will be of a specific type of earthquake. Just as economists can predict, broadly, what the effect will be of specific change of policy.

Seismologists can then advise structural engineers what loads buildings need to be designed for to survive earthquakes. I had the great honour to meet a brilliant Chilean seismologist 8 years ago. He had hammered on politicians doors and insisted they change building standards. That had been his life's work. Driven by knowing how vulnerable Chile was.

In 2010, Chile has hit by one of the biggest earthquakes of all time. Magnitude 8.8, right between the cities of Santiago and Concepción. Most buildings survived. Almost miraculously, only 500 people died.

Much of it down to him.

He couldn't predict WHEN the earthquake would hit. But he could advise on what the effects would be.

If you lived in Concepción, would you have followed his advice about how to build your house? Or would you have said, "f**k it, you can't tell when the earthquake will happen so I'm not listening to you. I reckon it'll be fine if we brace the walls with a bit of 4x2"?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Or another one.

Epidemiologists cannot predict exactly when the next pandemic will breakout.

Does that mean you ignore their advice about how best to mitigate the effects of one when it does happen.

We are living in an age where we depend on expert advice to understand complex issues more than ever.

You, Tyke, are simply dismissing expert opinion that doesn't suit what you want to believe.

What we need is evidence-led decision making. Not decision-led evidence making.

[Bentley Bullet]

Yeah, let's just talk about how doomed we are and how healthy we were before the virus. Let's not try and make the best of the situation by showing a positive stance to deal with it and go forward. Let's just talk about a negative future.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BB

And there you go again.

It's not about giving in to doom and gloom. It's about going into situation with your eyes open, informed by expert opinion.

When you drive, do you shut your eyes and hope for the best?

[Filo]

BB

And there you go again.

It's not about giving in to doom and gloom. It's about going into situation with your eyes open, informed by expert opinion.

When you drive, do you shut your eyes and hope for the best?

I drive for a living, to be fair I reckon 50% of drivers do just that or drive with blinkers on 😂😂😂

[Bentley Bullet]

BB

And there you go again.

It's not about giving in to doom and gloom. It's about going into situation with your eyes open, informed by expert opinion.

When you drive, do you shut your eyes and hope for the best?

But if going in with your eyes open proves to be detrimental because the 'experts'  negative predictions were actually responsible for hindering recovery, maybe it's time to be positively blinkered.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yeah. You keep saying that BB.

If an expert said that a plane's engine was likely to fail, you ignored him, got on the plane and it did fail, would you blame the engineer for being pessimistic?

Your bizarre insistence of blaming the massive slowdown we've had over the past 4 years on moodiness, when there are very simple and straightforward economic theory reasons for it says a lot. You don't want to listen to experts. That's fine. Your prerogative. Just don't expect your opinion to be taken seriously then.

[Bentley Bullet]

BST, I never expect you to take my view seriously. You are, after all negatively blinkered.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wind him up and let him go.

[SydneyRover]

I'm f*ckin' sick of this, we've had the vote a couple of elections we should be in nirvana, can we have the good news yet? 

[SydneyRover]

Barnier says the difficulties posed by Brexit in January 2021 'underestimated'

Really?

Barnier says the media need to help people prepare for change.

Barny's always good for a laugh.

He says the UK will leave the customs union and the single market. This will have a lot of consequences. They need to be prepared for.

Cumjo have it covered.

He says next January will not be like January 2020. It will be very, very different, he says.

Who'd have thought.

He says he thinks the difficulties are still “underestimated”.

Never!

Customs formalities will be applied to all exports.

bugger.

Financial institutions will lose the benefits of passporting.

double bugger

And commercial certificates will no longer be recognised by the EU, he says.

triple ........

He says the partnership that is being negotiated will not avoid these areas of friction. He says the UK delegation accepted this in this round of talks.

[tyke1962]

A bit of a round up of what happened ........

We had a vote where most didnt know what they wanted run by a government that didnt explain what was on offer easily subverted by some that did.

We are now at a point where those that voted to leave cant tell us coherently what they wanted or the benefits of what is on offer or what theyll get and a government that doesnt appear to know any of the above. 

I couldn't help but notice your post Sydney having had a couple of days away with work commitments .

Oh yes the leavers didn't know what they were voting for , some probably didn't as in every election or referendum that's taken place I'd imagine .

Of course the euro fanatics within the Labour Movement or your average Guardian reader if you like will tell you that they  totally knew what they were voting for and with it tried to claim the intelligent ground .

The problem as I see it is quite the opposite , or maybe they simply stuck two fingers in their lug holes so they can carry on lifting Estonians out of poverty or maybe they simply thought leavers were too thick to spot their hypocrisy .

I think it's a fairly reasonable thing to suggest that those in the Labour Movement robustly oppose the Tory austerity programme which has caused needless suffering to millions of people in this country and will continue to do so for a good while yet .

You might then wonder why on earth they'd trumpet the EU who have a far more devastating programme of austerity they have inflicted on Greece , Italy , France , Netherlands , Spain , Ireland and Portugal .

I mean it's bad enough having to eat this austerity cake baked by your own government but to have it served by a bunch of unelected Euro bureaucrats in Brussels is quite another thing altogether .

What kind of a Labour Movement would stand behind this you have to ask yourself ? .

You'd have also thought Mr and Mrs Middle Class from Camden would have spotted their hypocrisy .

Maybe they didn't know .

 

[tyke1962]

Or, maybe you're one of these mates of Michael Gove? You seem to have his disdain for experts who tell you things you don't want to hear. It's the antithesis of being adult. Ignore the evidence of experts with a track record of getting all the big things broadly right. Trust your gut instinct.

Is that what you'd do if you had cancer?

You are aware Billy I take it that GDP doesn't include the value of goods and services produced at home .

[BillyStubbsTears]

Or, maybe you're one of these mates of Michael Gove? You seem to have his disdain for experts who tell you things you don't want to hear. It's the antithesis of being adult. Ignore the evidence of experts with a track record of getting all the big things broadly right. Trust your gut instinct.

Is that what you'd do if you had cancer?

You are aware Billy I take it that GDP doesn't include the value of goods and services produced at home .

Here we go. Here's the second phase of the argument.

Phase 1: Assert that you are right.

When that is knocked down, move to phase two.

Phase 2: Question the premise of your opponent's case.


Go on Tyke. I'll indulge you. What precisely do you mean by that? Do you mean goods produced in a domestic dwelling?

[wilts rover]

A bit of a round up of what happened ........

We had a vote where most didnt know what they wanted run by a government that didnt explain what was on offer easily subverted by some that did.

We are now at a point where those that voted to leave cant tell us coherently what they wanted or the benefits of what is on offer or what theyll get and a government that doesnt appear to know any of the above. 

I couldn't help but notice your post Sydney having had a couple of days away with work commitments .

Oh yes the leavers didn't know what they were voting for , some probably didn't as in every election or referendum that's taken place I'd imagine .

Of course the euro fanatics within the Labour Movement or your average Guardian reader if you like will tell you that they  totally knew what they were voting for and with it tried to claim the intelligent ground .

The problem as I see it is quite the opposite , or maybe they simply stuck two fingers in their lug holes so they can carry on lifting Estonians out of poverty or maybe they simply thought leavers were too thick to spot their hypocrisy .

I think it's a fairly reasonable thing to suggest that those in the Labour Movement robustly oppose the Tory austerity programme which has caused needless suffering to millions of people in this country and will continue to do so for a good while yet .

You might then wonder why on earth they'd trumpet the EU who have a far more devastating programme of austerity they have inflicted on Greece , Italy , France , Netherlands , Spain , Ireland and Portugal .

I mean it's bad enough having to eat this austerity cake baked by your own government but to have it served by a bunch of unelected Euro bureaucrats in Brussels is quite another thing altogether .

What kind of a Labour Movement would stand behind this you have to ask yourself ? .

You'd have also thought Mr and Mrs Middle Class from Camden would have spotted their hypocrisy .

Maybe they didn't know .

 

You voted to leave the EU because you were disgusted at the austerity they have caused in the Netherlands! There's a new one.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Who exactly is this EU that has imposed these policies on these countries?

[SydneyRover]

A bit of a round up of what happened ........

We had a vote where most didnt know what they wanted run by a government that didnt explain what was on offer easily subverted by some that did.

We are now at a point where those that voted to leave cant tell us coherently what they wanted or the benefits of what is on offer or what theyll get and a government that doesnt appear to know any of the above. 

I couldn't help but notice your post Sydney having had a couple of days away with work commitments .

Oh yes the leavers didn't know what they were voting for , some probably didn't as in every election or referendum that's taken place I'd imagine .

Of course the euro fanatics within the Labour Movement or your average Guardian reader if you like will tell you that they  totally knew what they were voting for and with it tried to claim the intelligent ground .

The problem as I see it is quite the opposite , or maybe they simply stuck two fingers in their lug holes so they can carry on lifting Estonians out of poverty or maybe they simply thought leavers were too thick to spot their hypocrisy .

I think it's a fairly reasonable thing to suggest that those in the Labour Movement robustly oppose the Tory austerity programme which has caused needless suffering to millions of people in this country and will continue to do so for a good while yet .

You might then wonder why on earth they'd trumpet the EU who have a far more devastating programme of austerity they have inflicted on Greece , Italy , France , Netherlands , Spain , Ireland and Portugal .

I mean it's bad enough having to eat this austerity cake baked by your own government but to have it served by a bunch of unelected Euro bureaucrats in Brussels is quite another thing altogether .

What kind of a Labour Movement would stand behind this you have to ask yourself ? .

You'd have also thought Mr and Mrs Middle Class from Camden would have spotted their hypocrisy .

Maybe they didn't know .

 

To be honest Tyke I think very few people on either side including those in government knew what they were voting for nor the consequences of a pro-brexit outcome and we/they still don't.

I think remainers understood better the consequences of leaving and that some/many leavers if they did know were determined to give some one (themselves even) a bloody nose of which I understand.

Think of the Austerity imposed on Greece Italy France as the imposition of Fair Play rules and their economies will improve and that they will/may get their houses in order by putting and end to rampant corruption, unlike ours which went into reverse and for no good reason. Although Austerity on the continent was designed and imposed by the EU it was signed up to by the leaders of those countries and although in a difficult position those countries elected to accept and stay rather than cut and run because presumably they could see the long term benefit of being a member of the richest trading bloc in the world.

Labour has made many many mistakes but on balance if all the pros and cons were tabulated Labour-Tory-EU I think the average person from the north of England would see that in terms of well being and monetary terms that their lives and those of their neighbours would be better with a labour government and being a member of the EU.

My leanings are well to the left which many remind me and I wear proudly but I am a pragmatist, more so as I age and although my first preference would be some sort of socialist republic but I do understand and history plainly shows that this would turn out to be a corrupted mess just as globalism has proven to be.

''You'd have also thought Mr and Mrs Middle Class from Camden would have spotted their hypocrisy'' I think most of these now vote to pull up the ladder.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Or, maybe you're one of these mates of Michael Gove? You seem to have his disdain for experts who tell you things you don't want to hear. It's the antithesis of being adult. Ignore the evidence of experts with a track record of getting all the big things broadly right. Trust your gut instinct.

Is that what you'd do if you had cancer?

You are aware Billy I take it that GDP doesn't include the value of goods and services produced at home .

Here we go. Here's the second phase of the argument.

Phase 1: Assert that you are right.

When that is knocked down, move to phase two.

Phase 2: Question the premise of your opponent's case.


Go on Tyke. I'll indulge you. What precisely do you mean by that? Do you mean goods produced in a domestic dwelling?

He only counts goods produced in batches of 144, of course.

[tyke1962]

A bit of a round up of what happened ........

We had a vote where most didnt know what they wanted run by a government that didnt explain what was on offer easily subverted by some that did.

We are now at a point where those that voted to leave cant tell us coherently what they wanted or the benefits of what is on offer or what theyll get and a government that doesnt appear to know any of the above. 

I couldn't help but notice your post Sydney having had a couple of days away with work commitments .

Oh yes the leavers didn't know what they were voting for , some probably didn't as in every election or referendum that's taken place I'd imagine .

Of course the euro fanatics within the Labour Movement or your average Guardian reader if you like will tell you that they  totally knew what they were voting for and with it tried to claim the intelligent ground .

The problem as I see it is quite the opposite , or maybe they simply stuck two fingers in their lug holes so they can carry on lifting Estonians out of poverty or maybe they simply thought leavers were too thick to spot their hypocrisy .

I think it's a fairly reasonable thing to suggest that those in the Labour Movement robustly oppose the Tory austerity programme which has caused needless suffering to millions of people in this country and will continue to do so for a good while yet .

You might then wonder why on earth they'd trumpet the EU who have a far more devastating programme of austerity they have inflicted on Greece , Italy , France , Netherlands , Spain , Ireland and Portugal .

I mean it's bad enough having to eat this austerity cake baked by your own government but to have it served by a bunch of unelected Euro bureaucrats in Brussels is quite another thing altogether .

What kind of a Labour Movement would stand behind this you have to ask yourself ? .

You'd have also thought Mr and Mrs Middle Class from Camden would have spotted their hypocrisy .

Maybe they didn't know .

 

To be honest Tyke I think very few people on either side including those in government knew what they were voting for nor the consequences of a pro-brexit outcome and we/they still don't.

I think remainers understood better the consequences of leaving and that some/many leavers if they did know were determined to give some one (themselves even) a bloody nose of which I understand.

Think of the Austerity imposed on Greece Italy France as the imposition of Fair Play rules and their economies will improve and that they will/may get their houses in order by putting and end to rampant corruption, unlike ours which went into reverse and for no good reason. Although Austerity on the continent was designed and imposed by the EU it was signed up to by the leaders of those countries and although in a difficult position those countries elected to accept and stay rather than cut and run because presumably they could see the long term benefit of being a member of the richest trading bloc in the world.

Labour has made many many mistakes but on balance if all the pros and cons were tabulated Labour-Tory-EU I think the average person from the north of England would see that in terms of well being and monetary terms that their lives and those of their neighbours would be better with a labour government and being a member of the EU.

My leanings are well to the left which many remind me and I wear proudly but I am a pragmatist, more so as I age and although my first preference would be some sort of socialist republic but I do understand and history plainly shows that this would turn out to be a corrupted mess just as globalism has proven to be.

''You'd have also thought Mr and Mrs Middle Class from Camden would have spotted their hypocrisy'' I think most of these now vote to pull up the ladder.

Austerity is austerity Sydney which you well know affects those in society least able to absorb it's crippling affects the most .

The rejection by the EU to perhaps introduce a Keynesian policy  tells us rather more about the EU than the EU maniacs in the Labour Party would like to admit .

This is a conversation that's never taken place as far as I can see , a huge proportion of the Labour Party support austerity dished out by the EU but apparently robustly oppose the Tory governments strategy .

Every benefit cut , police reduction , social service cut , NHS underfunded creating mass hysteria quite rightly and the same dished out by the EU and not so much as a conversation .


The other one that gets me is Blair sending millions and millions of pounds of UK taxpayers money to eastern europe to get them started in this EU charade and yet he practically built every new School , Hospital
and what have using PFI which we continue to pay today and beyond .

I mean you couldn't make this shyte up .

[BillyStubbsTears]

Like I said last night Tyke. Who is this "EU" that imposed those policies?

[SydneyRover]

''This is a conversation that's never taken place as far as I can see , a huge proportion of the Labour Party support austerity dished out by the EU but apparently robustly oppose the Tory governments strategy''

Just on this point Tyke the UK government had a choice because there was a reasonable credible framework in place to collect taxes control corruption and pay down debt even if it grossly advantaged those at the top and against all advice and economic history it chose an ideological path to further wage war against the masses.

Other countries within the EU that signed up to Austerity had Hobson's choice especially Greece where the corruption of tax collection was rampant, remember the aerial photo's of swimming pools owners matched up against those paying zero tax? Greece either complied or exited I presume, I'm not sure what the choices were if any, but I am sure that if they had chosen to exit the EU they would be in a far worse place and civil war would not have been a total shock.

[SydneyRover]

Like I said last night Tyke. Who is this "EU" that imposed those policies?

I haven't done any homework on this but it's a good point bst

[SydneyRover]

This is an objective look at Greece and Austerity

https://www.choices.edu/teaching-news-lesson/greece-eu-navigating-debt-austerity/

[BillyStubbsTears]

Like I said last night Tyke. Who is this "EU" that imposed those policies?

In your own time Tyke.

[SydneyRover]

This is an objective look at Greece and Austerity

https://www.choices.edu/teaching-news-lesson/greece-eu-navigating-debt-austerity/

This link from the above on Austerity is pretty good

The fallacy of Composition.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fi8Unx9SL_I&spfreload=10

[The Red Baron]

The UK is the only European country without a primarily nationalised railway network. Although to be acurate our railways are mostly state run. They are just run by the national state railways of other countries.

It's UK government policy since Thatcher that stop the UK having a nationalised railway network, not EU rules.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-railways-eu-rules-nationalise-single-market-restrictions-labour-a8968691.html

Point of information- railway privatisation happened in 1993 when John Major was PM.

Mrs Thatcher was rather sceptical about the benefits of railway privatisation (just as she was about the Maastricht treaty). On those two issues at least we can probably say history has proved her right.

[tyke1962]

''This is a conversation that's never taken place as far as I can see , a huge proportion of the Labour Party support austerity dished out by the EU but apparently robustly oppose the Tory governments strategy''

Just on this point Tyke the UK government had a choice because there was a reasonable credible framework in place to collect taxes control corruption and pay down debt even if it grossly advantaged those at the top and against all advice and economic history it chose an ideological path to further wage war against the masses.

Other countries within the EU that signed up to Austerity had Hobson's choice especially Greece where the corruption of tax collection was rampant, remember the aerial photo's of swimming pools owners matched up against those paying zero tax? Greece either complied or exited I presume, I'm not sure what the choices were if any, but I am sure that if they had chosen to exit the EU they would be in a far worse place and civil war would not have been a total shock.

The EU's handling of the financial and sovereign debt crisis in Portugal , Ireland and Greece etc exposed all the classic characters of a neoliberal force .

The " Hobson's Choice " as you put it is an interesting choice of words Sydney , I'd say trapped personally and a consequence of a lack of democracy which endorsed the fact that the EU austerity inflicted on those citizens least able to manage it exposed the elephant in the room , they'd lost economic control of their nation states to Brussels .

The fact they had no where to go fundamentally endorses that narrative .

The very essence of a single European Market , monetary union and the Euro complete the neoliberal logic of market competition .

Once the EU financial markets were integrated individual nation states were left to compete for investment by large multi national corporations , a good example of this would be Amazon in Doncaster .

This then leads you exposed to cuts to labour cuts ( agency workers , ZHC ) , decreased corporate taxes and compromises on safety and environmental standards .

The only winner here is transnational capital , not the working man .

The completion from an economic force to a political one is the end game .

A transnational corporate elite setting the European agenda and policy making .

Market Forces ... Small Government = Neoliberalism .

Money ... Profit ... Austerity .

There's absolutely no regard what so ever for the social fabric of societies , the former Labour Heartlands are your reference .

This apparently is what the Labour Movement stood behind , MP's , Trade Unions   Labour Members and fringe groups such as Momentum .

To put it another way if the EU were a former PM it would be Thatcher .

I'm at a loss to understand the Labour Party's remaining in the EU's argument .

[SydneyRover]

I'm working my way through Greece at the moment and most of it appears to boil down to bad management by those in charge. Of course the poor paid for the largesse and are still paying.

Added: they had to accept a bailout coupled with Austerity or go back to the drachma which no one wanted, in the end with the new boys in charge they accepted the bail out loans but later the money lenders relented a bit and eased the payments regime.

it's been plenty tough there with the poorest taking the brunt of course. What it shows me is you can never stand back and say whats the point because if you do you'll get turned over and screwed.

[tyke1962]

I'm working my way through Greece at the moment and most of it appears to boil down to bad management by those in charge. Of course the poor paid for the largesse and are still paying.

Added: they had to accept a bailout coupled with Austerity or go back to the drachma which no one wanted, in the end with the new boys in charge they accepted the bail out loans but later the money lenders relented a bit and eased the payments regime.

it's been plenty tough there with the poorest taking the brunt of course. What it shows me is you can never stand back and say whats the point because if you do you'll get turned over and screwed.

One of the great Labour Party tragedies for me personally is that nobody from the leave camp within the party had the strength of character and political charisma to expose the EU and make the leave argument .

Now I take the point this is hypothetical but such a man as Farage within the Labour Movement wouldn't have been a bad shout .

Let's park his Thatcherite banker background and focus on his work exposing and holding to account the EU .

Whatever you think of him personally or his motives doesn't take away the fact he called the EU out for what they were and on that issue he was absolutely on the money .

No wonder the Tories were shyte scared of him .

Shame the Labour Party haven't the same personalities or policy and have abandoned the working class on the subject of the EU .

It was a severe price to pay last December and over 40 years in the making .