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Believe it or not this was light saturday relief from the day job.
Quote from: Copps is Magic on January 28, 2017, 11:46:36 pmBelieve it or not this was light saturday relief from the day job. You are Theresa May and I claim my £5
Because that is when the 4th tier switched (finally*)to 3 automatically promoted. Last 21 seasonsAvg points total of league winner = 90Avg points total of 3rd place = 81Avg points needed to secure title = 86Highest Points total of league winner = 102 (Plymouth 2002)Highest points total of 3rd place = 88 (Hereford 2008)The points total needed to guarantee promotion would be 86 points. That would also, on average, make us champions. Rovers are currently on track to reach a 100 points total (2.2 ppg). That rate would see us as champions in 100% of instances in the last 21 years.A drop in form to 1.5 points per game would give us 88 points = Champions in most cases, promoted in all.A drop in form to 1.25 points per game would give us 84 points = Champions in only a few cases, promoted in most.Below shows: What percentage of times each points total has been high enough for automatic promotion (last 21 years)86 100%85 95%84 86%83 81%82 76%81 72%80 72%79 62%78 38%77 34%The drop off starts at about 79 points. With or above that you still have a good chance of automatic promotion. To get to 79 points Rovers need 1 point per game from now till the end of the season (e.g. 5 wins, 3 draws, 10 losses). To put that into perspective, out of the bottom two; Newport have 16 points in their last 18 games, Orient have 14 points in their last 18. We would need roughly relegation form not to have a high chance of promotion this year.I also had a look at the No. of goals scored by league leaders in that time. The average is 75 goals. The highest is 96 by Notts County in 2010. If Rovers continue to score at the current rate we will have 95 goals by the end of the season, one behind that record.In conclusion, Champions probable, promotion almost certain. However, we will fall tantilisingnly short of breaking two modern era records.*the pedants are after me.
Erm...it changed to 3 automatic promotion places in 1986-87...
Highest Points total of league winner = 102 (Plymouth 2002)Rovers are currently on track to reach a 100 points total (2.2 ppg). That rate would see us as champions in 100% of instances in the last 21 years.*the pedants are after me.
He's right though. Plymouth may have won the league with such and such a total, but they only required one more point than 2nd place.
Hi BobIn the philosophy/approach used by CiM, average points to win title equals second team's points plus 1. It is an open philosophical question whether this is a better guide than points won by the Champions each season.BTW, ever read ''Goedel, Escher, Bach' by Hofstadter? Brilliant book but mainly for mathematicians.
Fair explanation CiM. And that is the eternal conundrum. E.g. to determine likely requirements for automatic promotion do you look at all the 4th place teams' totals and add 1, or look at all the third place teams' points? Do you take the viewpoint of an outsider trying to gatecrash the table, or the viewpoint of one of the competing teams?Mathematics or Philosophy?