The parallels are scary

[BillyStubbsTears]

I mentioned this scenario 18 months ago as a daft tongue in cheek comment. Looks like I was more prescient than I thought.

In 2000-01, O'Driscoll's Bournemouth were buttressed by a dynamic loan striker, Jermain Defoe, who transformed the team and scored for fun. The loan signing was a massive success and took the club to within striking distance of the play-offs, with a certain James Hayter as his striking partner. Sound familiar from last season?

Read on...

But that signing covered up deficiencies in the rest of the squad and the chickens came home to roost the following season. In 01-02, they started off decently. By November, they were in 12th place  and looking handily placed for a push for the play offs. But they collapsed. In the final 28 games they got 3 wins. James Hayter's goals dried up - he'd scored 6 by mid-Nov but managed 2 in the final 26 games.  Worse still, they were leaking goals, conceding at the rate of 2 per game fir the second half of the season. They collapsed and they were relegated on the final day of the season.

Old Mother Billy's crystal balls have just been flung across the living room...

[Filo]

Lets hope it`s not a carbon copy then, can`t you find any glimmering light in Old BST`s almanac?

[jonnydog]

That really is both spooky, and frightening. Obviously lessons not learned!

[Lesonthewest]

I remember your post well BST. Hopefuly though back then Bournemouth didn't face a team with as bad an away record of what Palaces is, i'm going to cling on to that thought anyway. So don't go telling us they played some team who hadn't won a game all season but took Bournemouth apart in that run in, there wasn't was there? Me ticker couldn't take it.

[The Red Baron]

That had me reaching for the Rothmans (the yearbook, rather than a ciggy to calm the nerves!) and you're right. They did have a second half collapse of the same kind of proportions as this season.

If I can find a light at the end of this particular tunnel, it is that Bournemouth dropped into the bottom four (this being what is now League One) at the beginning of March. Apart from briefly moving out when they beat one of their main rivals, Northampton Town, 5-1, they stayed there until the end of the season. I was a bit of a groundhopper in those days and went to their final home game of the season, when they beat Chesterfield 3-1. Despite that, everyone knew they were down and other results ensured they were mathematically relegated before their final game of the season at Wrexham.

So, strictly speaking, they didn't go down on the final day of the season and their position was even worse than ours is now. Still, I have often wondered how O'Driscoll would perform in a relegation dogfight and the precedents are not encouraging.

[RedJ]

I mentioned this scenario 18 months ago as a daft tongue in cheek comment. Looks like I was more prescient than I thought.

In 2000-01, O'Driscoll's Bournemouth were buttressed by a dynamic loan striker, Jermain Defoe, who transformed the team and scored for fun. The loan signing was a massive success and took the club to within striking distance of the play-offs, with a certain James Hayter as his striking partner. Sound familiar from last season?

Read on...

But that signing covered up deficiencies in the rest of the squad and the chickens came home to roost the following season. In 01-02, they started off decently. By November, they were in 12th place  and looking handily placed for a push for the play offs. But they collapsed. In the final 28 games they got 3 wins. James Hayter's goals dried up - he'd scored 6 by mid-Nov but managed 2 in the final 26 games.  Worse still, they were leaking goals, conceding at the rate of 2 per game fir the second half of the season. They collapsed and they were relegated on the final day of the season.

Old Mother Billy's crystal balls have just been flung across the living room...

Based on this - how f**ked are we, and is there a way out?

Palace, in my opinion, really is our biggest game since that final at the Britannia. Absolute must win.

[BillyStubbsTears]

That had me reaching for the Rothmans (the yearbook, rather than a ciggy to calm the nerves!) and you're right. They did have a second half collapse of the same kind of proportions as this season.

If I can find a light at the end of this particular tunnel, it is that Bournemouth dropped into the bottom four (this being what is now League One) at the beginning of March. Apart from briefly moving out when they beat one of their main rivals, Northampton Town, 5-1, they stayed there until the end of the season. I was a bit of a groundhopper in those days and went to their final home game of the season, when they beat Chesterfield 3-1. Despite that, everyone knew they were down and other results ensured they were mathematically relegated before their final game of the season at Wrexham.

So, strictly speaking, they didn't go down on the final day of the season and their position was even worse than ours is now. Still, I have often wondered how O'Driscoll would perform in a relegation dogfight and the precedents are not encouraging.

I may have mis read the figures TRB but according to the Football365 site, after 45 games they had 44 points and Notts County had 47. Goal differences were about identical, so they could have stayed up if they'd won their last match and Notts County had lost. As it was the results were the other way round.

As for Bournemouth having been in the relegation zone for the last dozen games or so, that's true, but I see it as a function if the fact that they weren't quite as handily placed as us in mid Nov ( we were 7th-10th, they were 12th-14th). As you say, the collapses have been ominously similar from November onwards.

You're also right to be worried about O'Driscoll in a dogfight. He got something if a reputation at Bournemouth as a serial bottler, after that 01-02 collapse, the following season in Div 4 when they were in the top 3 for most of the season but dipped in the last few weeks to finish 4th (although they did win the play offs of course). Then in 03-04 back in Div 3, they managed 1 win from the last 8 games to drop out if the play offs. And mist infamously if all, the following season they needed one win from their last 7 home games to make the play-offs, but managed 2 draws and 5 defeats. The Bournemouth fans still curse his insistence in playing 1 up front in that run.

Then of course our own situation in 07-08, when we managed just 12 points from the last 10 games and missed out on automatic promotion by losing at a relegation battler on the final day.

Something of a pattern...

[The Red Baron]

That had me reaching for the Rothmans (the yearbook, rather than a ciggy to calm the nerves!) and you're right. They did have a second half collapse of the same kind of proportions as this season.

If I can find a light at the end of this particular tunnel, it is that Bournemouth dropped into the bottom four (this being what is now League One) at the beginning of March. Apart from briefly moving out when they beat one of their main rivals, Northampton Town, 5-1, they stayed there until the end of the season. I was a bit of a groundhopper in those days and went to their final home game of the season, when they beat Chesterfield 3-1. Despite that, everyone knew they were down and other results ensured they were mathematically relegated before their final game of the season at Wrexham.

So, strictly speaking, they didn't go down on the final day of the season and their position was even worse than ours is now. Still, I have often wondered how O'Driscoll would perform in a relegation dogfight and the precedents are not encouraging.

I may have mis read the figures TRB but according to the Football365 site, after 45 games they had 44 points and Notts County had 47. Goal differences were about identical, so they could have stayed up if they'd won their last match and Notts County had lost. As it was the results were the other way round.

As for Bournemouth having been in the relegation zone for the last half dozen games or so, that's true, but I see it as a function if the fact that they weren't quite as handily placed as us in mid Nov ( we were 7th-10th, they were 12th-14th). As you say, the collapses have been ominously similar from November onwards.

I've just checked the excellent statto.com and you are correct. Bournemouth did have a mathematical chance going into the final game. They had to win, Notts County had to lose. Though no-one I spoke to at that final home game gave them a cat in hell's chance of staying up.

From where we are now, we're more likely to be in the same sort of position Notts County were on the final day. This is the scenario that's really troubling me. We go up to Middlesbrough one or two points above the dotted line, but knowing that anything less than a win could allow Scunny, Preston or Palace (or any two from three) overtake us.

[The Red Baron]

I mentioned this scenario 18 months ago as a daft tongue in cheek comment. Looks like I was more prescient than I thought.

In 2000-01, O'Driscoll's Bournemouth were buttressed by a dynamic loan striker, Jermain Defoe, who transformed the team and scored for fun. The loan signing was a massive success and took the club to within striking distance of the play-offs, with a certain James Hayter as his striking partner. Sound familiar from last season?

Read on...

But that signing covered up deficiencies in the rest of the squad and the chickens came home to roost the following season. In 01-02, they started off decently. By November, they were in 12th place  and looking handily placed for a push for the play offs. But they collapsed. In the final 28 games they got 3 wins. James Hayter's goals dried up - he'd scored 6 by mid-Nov but managed 2 in the final 26 games.  Worse still, they were leaking goals, conceding at the rate of 2 per game fir the second half of the season. They collapsed and they were relegated on the final day of the season.

Old Mother Billy's crystal balls have just been flung across the living room...

Based on this - how f**ked are we, and is there a way out?

Palace, in my opinion, really is our biggest game since that final at the Britannia. Absolute must win.

To me, the Palace game still comes into the \"must not lose\" category rather than the \"must win.\" I would say that we probably need one more win to feel relatively safe, and Palace possibly offers the best chance of that out of the remaining fixtures.

Other than that, we have to hope that Leicester's fading play-off chances have fizzled out by the time we play them and that maybe Barnsley and/or  Boro are in summer holiday mode.

[Dagenham Rover]

I mentioned this scenario 18 months ago as a daft tongue in cheek comment. Looks like I was more prescient than I thought.

In 2000-01, O'Driscoll's Bournemouth were buttressed by a dynamic loan striker, Jermain Defoe, who transformed the team and scored for fun. The loan signing was a massive success and took the club to within striking distance of the play-offs, with a certain James Hayter as his striking partner. Sound familiar from last season?

Read on...

But that signing covered up deficiencies in the rest of the squad and the chickens came home to roost the following season. In 01-02, they started off decently. By November, they were in 12th place  and looking handily placed for a push for the play offs. But they collapsed. In the final 28 games they got 3 wins. James Hayter's goals dried up - he'd scored 6 by mid-Nov but managed 2 in the final 26 games.  Worse still, they were leaking goals, conceding at the rate of 2 per game fir the second half of the season. They collapsed and they were relegated on the final day of the season.

Old Mother Billy's crystal balls have just been flung across the living room...

Based on this - how f**ked are we, and is there a way out?

Palace, in my opinion, really is our biggest game since that final at the Britannia. Absolute must win.

To me, the Palace game still comes into the \"must not lose\" category rather than the \"must win.\" I would say that we probably need one more win to feel relatively safe, and Palace possibly offers the best chance of that out of the remaining fixtures.

Other than that, we have to hope that Leicester's fading play-off chances have fizzled out by the time we play them and that maybe Barnsley and/or  Boro are in summer holiday mode.

As long as we are not as well

    oh we already seem to be

[BillyStubbsTears]

Actually TRB I guess there's a perfectly obvious reason why O'Driscoll's sides struggle in a dogfight.

He crafts sides of fragile beauty. Brian Sewell would crack one off over them if they were in the British Museum.

But what he doesn't ever do is produce a side that you'd want with you in the trenches. And that's where we are right now. Just like his sides were at the end of the season in 02, 03, 04 and 08 when they came up short in a dogfight in the regular season.

[steve@dcfd]

The parallel between those two season and the last season and present are striking. But in the first year the I wonder if the Bourmouth board gave Sean the the resources to get near the playoffs but in the second year expected him to manage with players of less quality.
Last season Sean was given the resources eventually wiith the signing of quality loaness which got us close to the playoffs. Then apart from spending money on striker he was asked to manage with inferior loaness and the quality of the squad has diminished. Sean has his faults but so does our chairman and board, it was said when clubs came sniffing he was backed to the hilt by the board, but he has had keep a squad going with players who are no where near the loaness from last year. Thats why results have taken a nose dive. The injuries have disguised the problem we have always had this season. So maybe Sean teams are no good in a dog fight, maybe we are looking to review his position. But JR and the boards strategy likes Bourmouths in the second year has been wrong this season. Results and crowds have taken a turn for the worst. But this has been coming and unless you watch football through rose tinted glasses it was expected.

[RobTheRover]

2 wins for me.

palace and Barnsley

Palace will concede against us, no question. Barnsley will \"do us a favour\" to keep at least 1 local derby next year (no blunts or scunny, in all likelihood).  Lump on an Oakwell win now!!!

[RedJ]

I pose the question again - how buggered do you all think we are?

[VikingJames]

I pose the question again - how buggered do you all think we are?

More buggered than most people realise.

Win or bust against Palace IMO. I can't see us winning any of the others. That's not negative, it's not knee jerk - it's an honest assessment after watching us drop like a stone down the table over the last 3 months.

[RedJ]

I pose the question again - how buggered do you all think we are?

More buggered than most people realise.

Win or bust against Palace IMO. I can't see us winning any of the others. That's not negative, it's not knee jerk - it's an honest assessment after watching us drop like a stone down the table over the last 3 months.

My opinion too. We may be able to snatch a draw at Oakwell, too, but not hopeful..

[Red Rover]

I mentioned this scenario 18 months ago as a daft tongue in cheek comment. Looks like I was more prescient than I thought.

In 2000-01, O'Driscoll's Bournemouth were buttressed by a dynamic loan striker, Jermain Defoe, who transformed the team and scored for fun. The loan signing was a massive success and took the club to within striking distance of the play-offs, with a certain James Hayter as his striking partner. Sound familiar from last season?

Read on...

But that signing covered up deficiencies in the rest of the squad and the chickens came home to roost the following season. In 01-02, they started off decently. By November, they were in 12th place  and looking handily placed for a push for the play offs. But they collapsed. In the final 28 games they got 3 wins. James Hayter's goals dried up - he'd scored 6 by mid-Nov but managed 2 in the final 26 games.  Worse still, they were leaking goals, conceding at the rate of 2 per game fir the second half of the season. They collapsed and they were relegated on the final day of the season.

Old Mother Billy's crystal balls have just been flung across the living room...

Brilliant post! Lets hope lightning doesnt strike twice!

[DRFC-PERKINS]

People seem to forget this is football and anything can happen, there are 4 games left and let's face it if we do go down I know I'll be singing rovers till I die at boro regardless what happens.

[RobTheRover]

Spot on!

[graingrover]

But we are not talking about a motivator ! SOD has always said it is all about taking responsibility so he does not see himself as someone who should tell his players how to position themselves at corners nor at free kicks . He is happy for the team to decide among themselves how to go about it . He even went as far on Rovers Player as to say the players had asked him to leave them to decide how to go about set pieces .
   OK if you are a true TEAM ... but this last  Saturday we were in the end fielding 5 loanees who had never been integrated into any of this liberal thinking and who could have been forgiven for thinking it meant PLAY FOR YERSEN !Which most loanees will do anyway.
     I think the JR / SOD love affair is under tremendous stress and the above is an inevitable consequence of the appointment of a guy who does not take charge but delegates responsibility to a set of individuals to work it out for thrmselves . That's fine when they are fully integrated but our lot are a bit like ships crossing in the night between the Isle of Groins and the Isle of Hernias!
        Give them a very clear instruction how to play the next few games or we will go down as a nice  to know and nice to look at failure of Football Management.

[graingrover]

Having just listened to SOD's post match interview he is also angry at the players not having taken their responsibilities ! He also says he has to take the ultimate responsibility cos he trains them every day. BUT SHAUN for God's sake recognise you cannot do that with loaness NONE of whom need Rovers to secure a roof over their head for the future .