World war 3

[MrFrost]

Apparently news reports relating to World War 3 have risen 200 percent in the last 8 months.

Had a quick read of some of them. Very precarious times indeed.

I hope world 'leaders' sort their shit out soon or within the next few years there might be be much of a world left.

[BobG]

Have you spotted, Mr F, that applications from multi millionaire, and richer, Americans to become naturalised New Zealanders have gone through the roof this last 2 years? And that the number of applications is still increasing? There's a lot of very rich Yanks buying up very desirable properties in New Zealand these days.  Now why would they be doing that.....?

Read 'Stark' by Ben Elton. It's very topical. And scary.

BobG

[IDM]

Remember the crisis in The Ukraine about 3 years ago??  Divisions in a country bordering east and west, some pro Russian some pro west?  Russian military intervention??

That was spookily the same kind of tension-rising scenario that used to be played out in military exercises towards the end of the cold war.  Which then escalated into chemical and nuclear conflict..  All done to practice our readiness for war and associated procedures..

Unlikely these days, but spooky nonetheless.

[Dutch Uncle]

I believe a lot of the westrern military intelligence community have long admired many of the strategic scenarios created in the Tom Clancy books, although how they pan out at the tactical level has often been less realistic. IMHO one of his better books several years ago was based on a frighteningly recognisable Ukraine scenario.

[Sprotyrover]

 :suicide:west needs to wind its neck in! What the F### are NATO troops doing in Poland and the Baltic states in contravention of the promises made to Russia that it would never happen.?

[ballysbackin]

Something to do with  The Crimea and Syria possibly

[glosterred]

:suicide:west needs to wind its neck in! What the F### are NATO troops doing in Poland and the Baltic states in contravention of the promises made to Russia that it would never happen.?

Are the Baltic state not members of NATO and have asked for assistance?

[Sprotyrover]

NATO promised Russia that we would never put our troops into those countries, doing so is a provocation in Russian eyes,not in Putins eyes in the Russian people's eyes!

[BobG]

There are too many genies out of too many bottles. It might not be war that does for us, but when you remember that all of this lot need solutions before humanity can count itself secure, then I, for one, am glad I'm not 25 years old old.

- all soil gone within 60 years
- water wars
- lack of fuel
- destruction of biodiversity
- over population and consequent food pressures
- rampant personal greed meaning collective action becomes harder and harder
- natural resosurce exhaustion
- global warming
- rising sea levels. Just where are the Dutch going to go?
- increasing resistance to medicines
- pollution generally
- over fishing
- destruction of the Amazon rain forest. Where is oxygen going to come from?

I could go on. But I won't. It's all far too depressing.

BobG
 

[Sprotyrover]

There are too many genies out of too many bottles. It might not be war that does for us, but when you remember that all of this lot need solutions before humanity can count itself secure, then I, for one, am glad I'm not 25 years old old.

- all soil gone within 60 years
- water wars
- lack of fuel
- destruction of biodiversity
- over population and consequent food pressures
- rampant personal greed meaning collective action becomes harder and harder
- natural resosurce exhaustion
- global warming
- rising sea levels. Just where are the Dutch going to go?
- increasing resistance to medicines
- pollution generally
- over fishing
- destruction of the Amazon rain forest. Where is oxygen going to come from?

I could go on. But I won't. It's all far too depressing.

BobG
 

Just remember the words of the famous Monty Python song Bob and try to "Always look on the bright side of life!"👍🏻😀

[MrFrost]

There are too many genies out of too many bottles. It might not be war that does for us, but when you remember that all of this lot need solutions before humanity can count itself secure, then I, for one, am glad I'm not 25 years old old.

- all soil gone within 60 years
- water wars
- lack of fuel
- destruction of biodiversity
- over population and consequent food pressures
- rampant personal greed meaning collective action becomes harder and harder
- natural resosurce exhaustion
- global warming
- rising sea levels. Just where are the Dutch going to go?
- increasing resistance to medicines
- pollution generally
- over fishing
- destruction of the Amazon rain forest. Where is oxygen going to come from?

I could go on. But I won't. It's all far too depressing.

BobG
 

Genuinely makes me terrifed for my son's future.

[not on facebook]

It could be a a nuke or two that brings the world as we know it toady
to its knees ,one of the events that bob g had pointed out,religion with
the swelling of the Muslim faith across Europe ,left wing policy's and PC brigrade .

None of above will pan out this week or next year ,but it's the state
of the worlds standing in twenty to thirty or more years that worrys scares me shitless

Iam not scared for me as I will be six foot under by then and well gone,it's my kids world prospects in future that will be turning me in my grave.

It's got to the point where I think about pre warning my kids today not to have kids when they become of age as in my book that generation has no chance.

I hate it for my off spring to have to worry about theirs the way I do
about them today,as it scares me no end.

But you can't put a old head on young shoulders can you.

[andy didcott]

I'm not being funny Bob but where's all the soil going to go.

[MrFrost]

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/only-60-years-of-farming-left-if-soil-degradation-continues/

[not on facebook]

I'm not being funny Bob but where's all the soil going to go.

I must put my hands up and say that that one remark by bob made me mutter the words 'WTF is bob on'

Only possible answers I can come up with R

A.....glow worms will scoff it all

B.....trump will import it all as its reported he has lost his plot.

C.....or its used to fill in one hell of a massive sink hole

[andy didcott]

Cheers Mr F for that.

[Dutch Uncle]

NATO promised Russia that we would never put our troops into those countries, doing so is a provocation in Russian eyes,not in Putins eyes in the Russian people's eyes!

Sproty - could you link to a quote on that? I am sure there would have been caveats.

Russia has been a NATO Partnership for Peace member of NATO since 1994, and indeed have joined NATO in a number of Operations (notably Bosnia) and Exercises since then, including very senior Russian Generals. Closer relations developed after the NATO-Russia Council was established in 2002. However relations worsened following Russian involvement in Georgia, and then later to all intents and purposes suspended in 2014 following Russia's involvement in Ukraine.

Poland has been a full member of NATO since 1999, including host to a permanent NATO training establishment since 2004, and holding regular NATO Training events and exercises (I am aware of one as long ago as 2000).

Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have been full NATO Members since 2004

In 2016 NATO decided to station a multi-national battalion in each of the three Baltic countries and Poland in response to Russia's intervention in Ukraine and military activity in the Baltic region. A Battalion is a small unit and is not capable of offensive operations into or against Russia. By comparison in Cold War days Russia had probably more than 100 times more forces than that permanently in countries then neighbouring NATO (East Germany, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria). The Battalions' function is more tripwire, so that if Russia attacks, then NATO forces are attacked. It gives the Baltics confidence that Article V will be honoured, and more importantly sends a signal to Russia that any attack will be met by a NATO response.

Russian leadership is very capable of and experienced in dramatically overstating the situation for internal and external public consumption.

If you doubt NATO intentions I suggest visiting some of their open websites.  Bear in mind that any decision to take any military action is not the decision of any military figure in NATO. It can only be taken by the North Atlantic Council - a body whose members are the Heads of State of all NATO countries, and the vote has to be unanimous - any country however large or small has a veto. The US (supported by Tony Blair and dodgy intelligence) wished to launch the second war in Iraq in 2003 as a NATO operation. NATO said no (among others France said no giving rise to Americans renaming French Fries as Freedom Fries). NATO is not by nature an offensive organisation, it is far more defensive in nature. And it has protected the UK since 1949.

Finally any military person will tell you that war is hell, and to be avoided if at all possible. No military person wants to go to war as such, but is prepared to stand up if ordered by politicians. Politicians decide on wars, not the military. If you are a pacifist who believes no war should ever be fought then I can respect that. However my own feeling is occasionally situations can be so dangerous as to merit military action - for example Europe in 1939 resisting the Germans. If putting 4 small Battalions in the Baltics and Poland can deter a Russian attack then I feel that this is a reasonable step to take.

[Sprotyrover]

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/nato-s-eastward-expansion-did-the-west-break-its-promise-to-moscow-a-663315.html

[Sprotyrover]

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-shifrinson-russia-us-nato-deal--20160530-snap-story.html

[Dutch Uncle]

First of all Sproty, many thanks for putting those articles up - I now know more about what lies behind your post.

It is clear from those articles that there is some doubt about the truth of what happened in 1990. Certainly there was no NATO wide consensus and common position re possible future accession of former Warsaw Pact countries into NATO. Genscher was not German Chancellor, or even Defence Minister, so he could not speak for everyone.  I am sure he said a few encouraging things, possibly echoed by one of two others, but as I said NATO has to form a consensus on such matters (official NATO standpoint would need to be agreed in North Atlantic Council forum requiring a unamimous vote).  Gorbachev would certainly have known this, I am sure it never happened.

I think we need to separate out two things - accession of former WP countries and parts of USSR (i.e. Baltics) to join NATO, and the stationing of 4 Battalions of NATO forces in Poland and the 3 Baltics - a very small force, alongside national forces in those countries.

In my last post I already made my position clear on the second point - IMHO a necessary tripwire after Russian involvement in Ukraine, and with no offensive capability to threaten Russia.

The accession of WP/ex USSR countries is a different and murky issue. Without a NATO wide formal declaration it is IMHO difficult to expect loose comments from a few involved individuals at the time to be valid for years afterwards as the world changes. IMHO the USSR was not in a strong position in 1990, in particular having failed to find resources to keep up with US Ballistic Missile and Space Developments ('nicknamed Star Wars' at the time). In response to WP military withdrawals NATO did as promise removed and destroy huge numbers of forces and equipment from mainland Europe, and everyone was happy at the time (CFE).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_Conventional_Armed_Forces_in_Europe

Russian military operations in a number of areas including Chechnyya, Ingushetia and Georgia raised tensions over the years. More and more former WP countries felt threatened and wanted to join NATO. There are two sides to every story, but I feel that Russia has definitely always over-egged this one (as it often does).

[idler]

The Baltic states were worried for years about the number of Russians settling in their states thereby giving Russia the excuse to supposedly protect their citizens living there.

[wilts rover]

Conversely of course the entry of the former WP countries and especially the Baltic states to NATO will no doubt have given concern and raised tensions in Russia over the threat to its borders.

[BobG]

Am I being a bit dim here Brian? I thought France exited NATO donkeys years ago? Under de Gaulle?

And Mr Frost. Thank you. I did wonder if some on here might suspect I was smoking something interesting when I mentioned the potential ending of agriculture. So your link is splendid. Thank you. Like you, I am filled with worry about the long term future. And by long term I mean anything from 20 years on. I really am starting to think there are just too many genies on the loose now.  A major, major re-adjustment of one sort or another looks perfectly possible to me - despite Billy's boundless faith in technology and intelligence. Me? I think the human race is fundamentally stupid.

Sproty: that's good counsel that mate!

Cheers

Bob

[Dutch Uncle]

Bob

The are two parts of NATO - the political organisation (NATO) and the Integrated Military Structure (SHAPE). The media often misuse terms and confuse NATO and SHAPE. De Gaulle brought France out of SHAPE in 1967 (I think), but stayed part of NATO. It was always assumed that when necessary French military forces would all be made available to SHAPE if NATO (North Atlantic Council, on which France was still sitting) made a decision requiring forces.

France came back into SHAPE in 2009

https://www.quora.com/Why-did-France-leave-NATO

[not on facebook]

One I would not mind putting a monkey on with whatever bookies

is if there ever is a WWW 111 there will never be a WWW 1111

[RedJ]

Don't think there'd be much chance of you collecting your winnings, mate.

[not on facebook]

Don't think there'd be much chance of you collecting your winnings, mate.

If your a unlucky one to survive such war while you are dragging yer decaying in need of a good
wash/ shave body around while your body parts keep dropping off,your more than happy to pick up
any winnings that are due to me.

[ch-ch rover]

Bob G the Americans have been buying up NZ for the last 20 years along with the Chinese and Japonese the Russian and Chinese have built there own milk prossesing plants in the south island

[idler]

The Chinese have also been buying a lot of land in Australia according to the Aussies we were in China with.
The government then stepped in to stop or limit this.

[nightporter]

One I would not mind putting a monkey on with whatever bookies

is if there ever is a WWW 111 there will never be a WWW 1111