Covid - 19 the non-political thread

[BillyStubbsTears]

That is good news, but absolutely not unexpected. The rate of infection has been coming down throughout the entire lockdown period. That was the point of it.

The big question now is what happens as we are now easing the lockdown. That 39,000 new cases per week at the end of May equates to about 58 new cases per week per 100,000 population. That compares with Germany's lockdown easing process, where they have legislated that if any Lander's rate goes UP to 50 cases per week per 100,000, they have to go back into lockdown. We are coming OUT of lockdown with a higher rate than that and a still barely functioning TTI system which is not expected to be fully up to speed before September.

Hopefully we will ride this out.

[Not Now Kato]

That is good news, but absolutely not unexpected. The rate of infection has been coming down throughout the entire lockdown period. That was the point of it.

The big question now is what happens as we are now easing the lockdown. That 39,000 new cases per week at the end of May equates to about 58 new cases per week per 100,000 population. That compares with Germany's lockdown easing process, where they have legislated that if any Lander's rate goes UP to 50 cases per week per 100,000, they have to go back into lockdown. We are coming OUT of lockdown with a higher rate than that and a still barely functioning TTI system which is not expected to be fully up to speed before September.

Hopefully we will ride this out.

I'm not sure it will be an easy ride BST, the government has made a hash of things so far it's very difficult to believe they'll get the next bit right.
 
The New European sums up the journey so far very well indeed....
 
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/uk-population-being-fooled-by-government-1-6684939?fbclid=IwAR3RVQE0adqLasn6-L6mhQOIVyweTGohoItQTtO-NUEYv9IN0uKx5Hu5Kfo
 

[i_ateallthepies]

If it is going exactly according to their plan and with the Gove comment about "running it hot" and Johnson's statement of pride in how they have handled it you could be forgiven for supposing that is exactly what is happening.  They're only making a hash of it if it hasn't turned out the way they hoped.

[silent majority]

Can I just remind everybody this is the non-political thread? Its an area for people to discuss the virus in how it affects them, what they feel about it, news on vaccines etc.

Certain individuals seem to interpret my comments that I'm supporting the government by proposing such a thread, nothing could be further from the truth, but I'm happy to comment on the government on the other thread, this one is reserved for discussion on the virus itself.

[Not Now Kato]

My apologies SM

[silent majority]

An excellent article here from Fergus Walsh about the Corona virus;

Fergus Walsh: Was coronavirus here earlier than we thought?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52935644

[RobTheRover]

I'm certain I had it in the first week of February.

I was in meetings in London for 2 days at the end of January. I was sat eating breakfast in the hotel and reading the news on my phone. It had just been announced that flights in and out of China were suspended by BA. I looked round the hotel dining room and it must have been 60 or 70 percent Chinese folk in there. I thought these poor buggers aren't getting home any time soon.

The week after I felt shocking. Aching all over, sleeping on and off all day, dizzy when I stood up, dry cough. I didn't have breathing difficulties though. I just laid on the sofa for a week, drifting in and out of sleep. Went back to work after 10 days, and joked that I'd had coronavirus.

I don't think it's much of a joke now. I wouldn't mind taking the antibodies test just to confirm mind.

[Donnywolf]

Lots of people suspecting that too RTR - myself and Mrs DW amongst them.

Would like Anti body test for us too

[silent majority]

The company I work for has obtained 50,000 test kits and a million pieces of PPE. I’ve received my PPE but I’m waiting for the test which we all have to undergo before attending any company office.

I don’t think I’ve had CV-19 though, so it probably won’t help.

[Filo]

Lots of people suspecting that too RTR - myself and Mrs DW amongst them.

Would like Anti body test for us too

There are people that have blood tests everday for other things, it’s surely not beyond the realms of possibility to conduct an ant body test at the same time?

[scawsby steve]

I'm certain I had it in the first week of February.

I was in meetings in London for 2 days at the end of January. I was sat eating breakfast in the hotel and reading the news on my phone. It had just been announced that flights in and out of China were suspended by BA. I looked round the hotel dining room and it must have been 60 or 70 percent Chinese folk in there. I thought these poor buggers aren't getting home any time soon.

The week after I felt shocking. Aching all over, sleeping on and off all day, dizzy when I stood up, dry cough. I didn't have breathing difficulties though. I just laid on the sofa for a week, drifting in and out of sleep. Went back to work after 10 days, and joked that I'd had coronavirus.

I don't think it's much of a joke now. I wouldn't mind taking the antibodies test just to confirm mind.

Those are exactly the same symptoms that I had Rob, about the end of February. Put me on my back for 3 days.

[drfchound]

Similar for me too, it lasted three or four days and I was totally washed out.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Do you think some of you may have had normal flu?

It is highly unlikely that there were more than a couple of thousand cases in the entire country in mid Feb. The chances of three regulars in here having it are statistically straining credibility.

[drfchound]

Do you think some of you may have had normal flu?

It is highly unlikely that there were more than a couple of thousand cases in the entire country in mid Feb. The chances of three regulars in here having it are statistically straining credibility.

I had a flu jab BST.
Could I have had such a bad dose of something bearing that in mind.
Also, no one knows how many people in the country might have had the virus at that time.

[Filo]

Do you think some of you may have had normal flu?

It is highly unlikely that there were more than a couple of thousand cases in the entire country in mid Feb. The chances of three regulars in here having it are statistically straining credibility.

I had a flu jab BST.
Could I have had such a bad dose of something bearing that in mind.
Also, no one knows how many people in the country might have had the virus at that time.

The flu jab doesn’t cover every variant of flu

[EasyforDennis]

Lots of people suspecting that too RTR - myself and Mrs DW amongst them.

Would like Anti body test for us too

There are people that have blood tests everday for other things, it’s surely not beyond the realms of possibility to conduct an ant body test at the same time?

All it takes is an extra sample and the results could be back within 24 hours. So why the problem?

[Filo]

Lots of people suspecting that too RTR - myself and Mrs DW amongst them.

Would like Anti body test for us too

There are people that have blood tests everday for other things, it’s surely not beyond the realms of possibility to conduct an ant body test at the same time?

All it takes is an extra sample and the results could be back within 24 hours. So why the problem?

Who knows ?
For me it’s the logical thing to do, surely it’s in the populations best interests to do that

[drfchound]

Do you think some of you may have had normal flu?

It is highly unlikely that there were more than a couple of thousand cases in the entire country in mid Feb. The chances of three regulars in here having it are statistically straining credibility.

I had a flu jab BST.
Could I have had such a bad dose of something bearing that in mind.
Also, no one knows how many people in the country might have had the virus at that time.

The flu jab doesn’t cover every variant of flu

Agreed, but it isn’t beyond the realms of possibility that quite a few people have had Covid but it hasn’t been reported.
I think I have read a few rumours that there hasn’t been enough testing !!
It has been reported that the virus was in the community before it was officially announced.

[EasyforDennis]

Lots of people suspecting that too RTR - myself and Mrs DW amongst them.

Would like Anti body test for us too

There are people that have blood tests everday for other things, it’s surely not beyond the realms of possibility to conduct an ant body test at the same time?

All it takes is an extra sample and the results could be back within 24 hours. So why the problem?

Who knows ?
For me it’s the logical thing to do, surely it’s in the populations best interests to do that

The logical thing to do would seem obvious to everyone with an ounce of common sense. So that rules out Boris and his gang doesn't it? I'm just waiting to see what happens when using the track and trace system one of the members of nhs staff is found positive and all her/his colleagues have to go into 14 day isolation. How is that going to work in the emergency departments?

[Filo]

Do you think some of you may have had normal flu?

It is highly unlikely that there were more than a couple of thousand cases in the entire country in mid Feb. The chances of three regulars in here having it are statistically straining credibility.

I had a flu jab BST.
Could I have had such a bad dose of something bearing that in mind.
Also, no one knows how many people in the country might have had the virus at that time.

The flu jab doesn’t cover every variant of flu

Agreed, but it isn’t beyond the realms of possibility that quite a few people have had Covid but it hasn’t been reported.
I think I have read a few rumours that there hasn’t been enough testing !!
It has been reported that the virus was in the community before it was officially announced.

I agree, my comment was just a fact, my opinion is that CV19 has been around linger than what we thought and possibly many early deaths were misdiagnosed as pneumonia

[EasyforDennis]

Do you think some of you may have had normal flu?

It is highly unlikely that there were more than a couple of thousand cases in the entire country in mid Feb. The chances of three regulars in here having it are statistically straining credibility.

Well if we are to believe what Johnson is saying, we have the capacity to do 200k tests a day!!






I had a flu jab BST.
Could I have had such a bad dose of something bearing that in mind.
Also, no one knows how many people in the country might have had the virus at that time.

The flu jab doesn’t cover every variant of flu

Agreed, but it isn’t beyond the realms of possibility that quite a few people have had Covid but it hasn’t been reported.
I think I have read a few rumours that there hasn’t been enough testing !!
It has been reported that the virus was in the community before it was officially announced.

[drfchound]

Do you think some of you may have had normal flu?

It is highly unlikely that there were more than a couple of thousand cases in the entire country in mid Feb. The chances of three regulars in here having it are statistically straining credibility.

I had a flu jab BST.
Could I have had such a bad dose of something bearing that in mind.
Also, no one knows how many people in the country might have had the virus at that time.

The flu jab doesn’t cover every variant of flu

Agreed, but it isn’t beyond the realms of possibility that quite a few people have had Covid but it hasn’t been reported.
I think I have read a few rumours that there hasn’t been enough testing !!
It has been reported that the virus was in the community before it was officially announced.

I agree, my comment was just a fact, my opinion is that CV19 has been around linger than what we thought and possibly many early deaths were misdiagnosed as pneumonia

Also Filo, I am not claiming that I might have had Covid, just stating that I had similar symptoms to Rob and Steve.
In my case, it was in January.

[BigH]

Has anyone had an antibody test yet that detects whether you've had it?

[EasyforDennis]

Has anyone had an antibody test yet that detects whether you've had it?

As far as I'm aware only NHS staff have had the antibody test.

[drfchound]

Has anyone had an antibody test yet that detects whether you've had it?

As far as I'm aware only NHS staff have had the antibody test.

Apparently Superdrug are offering an antibody test for £69.
It involves the taking a blood sample and sending it off to an accredited lab for testing.
They (Superdrug) say that they have suspensed the use of their finger prick testing which is supposedly unreliable.

[BigH]

Mate of mine who's a doctor in a hospital put his hand up to trial a vaccine and was gobsmacked to find that his antibody test - part of the preliminaries - had come back positive.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Do you think some of you may have had normal flu?

It is highly unlikely that there were more than a couple of thousand cases in the entire country in mid Feb. The chances of three regulars in here having it are statistically straining credibility.

I had a flu jab BST.
Could I have had such a bad dose of something bearing that in mind.
Also, no one knows how many people in the country might have had the virus at that time.

We have a very good idea of how many people had CV-19 at the time. Because we know the subsequent death rates and we know from studies all around the world that the Infection Fatality Rate is around 1%.  Knowing those two things makes it relatively easy to work back to figure out how many were infected at a given time.

Using that approach, epidemiologists have estimated that there were around 100,000 new cases a day by 24 March. And because we know that the new cases were doubling every 3-4 days, that suggests that there would have been 500-1500  new cases a day at the start of March and maybe 2-20 per day at the start of Feb.

[ravenrover]

Speculation now that cases could have been around as early as November

[drfchound]

I wonder how many a day there could have been.

[BillyStubbsTears]

If there WERE cases in the UK in November, they must have been VERY well isolated from the rest of the community.

The doubling rate pre-lockdown is pretty well established at somewhere between 3-4 days. SO, if there had been say ONE case in the country on 30 November, and if that case had been circulating in the community, infecting other people and if there had been ZERO other cases coming into the country, by lockdown on 24 March (115 days later) , there would have been time for 30-40 doublings by the end of February, meaning that by lockdown, there would have been time for somewhere between 1 billion and 1 trillion people in Britain to have been infected.

I think we can safely assume that there were no cases in Britain in November. Or if there were, they locked themselves in lead-lined boxes. My best guess is that the first cases in Britain were sometime in mid-to late-January. That would give time for the 15 or 16 doublings (45-65 days) to get us to the estimated 100,000 infections per day by lockdown.