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It will be a massive step if we can win our next three games (which will be difficult, no doubt):v Carlisle (H)v Portsmouth (H)v Scunthorpe (A)If we do that, having to go into the last six matches needing roughly 8 points will give us a great chance.Given that in the next three rounds of fixtures we've got:Brentford v SwindonCrewe v Sheff UtdWalsall v TranmereBrentford v PrestonMilton Keynes v TranmereYeovil v SwindonCarlisle v YeovilSheff Utd v BrentfordSwindon v Notts County...optimistically we could have something like a 9 point cushion over 3rd before the end of March. Nowhere near done and dusted by then of course because our run-in is a tough one, but how damaging could that sort of gap be to the chasing pack psychologically with only 6/7 games left?Let's get them next three games won!
There's always a team or two who go on a long unbeaten run at the end of the season, say 9 wins out of 10, and reach the play offs or get promoted.
In our last L1 promotion season 207/8 we managed 3 wins 3 loses and 3 draws in our last 9 games , that's 12 points at 1.33 points a game.That sort of form this time round would leave us on 80 points , not enough for automatic promotion IMO.
Quote from: IDM on March 12, 2013, 09:21:23 amThere's always a team or two who go on a long unbeaten run at the end of the season, say 9 wins out of 10, and reach the play offs or get promoted.I'd say that there are SOMETIMES teams who come through with an excellent late run. But it's by no means guaranteed.By the way, to put it into perspective, Sheffield Weds last season had one of the THE most spectacular late runs to make promotion. They won 11 and drew 3 of there last 14 games. 2.57 points per game which is astonishing form.If Bournemouth manage to repeat that sort of form for the final 9 games, they'll still only get 81 points. THAT is how far out of the running Bournemouth now are for automatic promotion.If Tranmere or Brentford repeated that sort of form, they'd still only get 86 and 87 points respectively. And let's be honest, there's no sign whatsoever that either of those clubs are going to hit that sort of form, especially given the list of teams they still have to play. Even if Tranmere and Brentford manage to suddenly hit very good form and get 2 points per game from now on (and that would take a BIG swing in form, at a time when they both have very difficult run-ins) they'll only end up with 81 points apiece.So I'm sticking with what I've said for a few weeks. Realistically, 84-85 points will be ample for a top-2 place. And there are only four sides who can manage to get that many points. Every point that Yeovil, Blades and Swindon drop from now on is crucial for us.
Here's my prediction;Sheff Utd 91 +32Doncaster 86 +22Swindon 85 +39Bournemouth 82 +24MK Dons 82 +23Coventry 81 +28---------------------Yeovil 80 +17Tranmere 70 +11Id be happy with that, apart from blades being above us but still wouldn't be suprised if they drop some unexpected points. Coventry and MK Dons i am suprised to see there but they do seem to have easiest run in.