Viking Supporters Co-operative
Viking Chat => Viking Chat => Topic started by: Woodhead Passer on March 11, 2013, 09:48:52 pm
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Just had a go now with the remaining games, with this outcome;
1 Doncaster +22 86
2 Swindon +44 84
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3 Sheff Utd +29 84
4 Yeovil +21 83
5 Brentford +20 83
6 Bournemouth +20 79
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7 Tranmere +22 78
20 Colchester -26 45
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21 Scunthorpe -28 45
22 Bury -29 39
23 Hartlepool -32 35
24 Portsmouth -34 34
I feel that they are quite optimistic results with 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss. Just wondering what everyone else gets...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_div_2/predictor/default.stm
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Did one about 2 week ago had us finishing 3rd but think got most of the top side results wrong since then lol
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I have made my prediction that we will win the league with 86 points, Yeovil will finish in second with 81-2 points and Sheff U will have to make do with 3rd...
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I can't see it being that close at the finish. I think 3 will pull away a bit and you can normally rely on Blades to make it difficult for themselves in the run in. They do like their play-offs !
I can see Coventry making a late bid for the play-offs at the expense of Yeovil, Brentford or Bournemouth.
I think 84 will be good enough for promotion this season.
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Just done the predictor, I only looked at the top 9 sides and came up with this:
1. Doncaster - 87 pts (Win title at home to Notts Co, and lose at Brentford as pissed)
2. Sheff Utd - 86
3. Yeovil - 82
4. Brentford - 82
5. Swindon - 80
6. Coventry - 79 (GD +26)
7. Bournemouth - 79 (GD +19)
8. Walsall - 76
9. Tranmere - 69
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It will be a massive step if we can win our next three games (which will be difficult, no doubt):
v Carlisle (H)
v Portsmouth (H)
v Scunthorpe (A)
If we do that, having to go into the last six matches needing roughly 8 points will give us a great chance.
Given that in the next three rounds of fixtures we've got:
Brentford v Swindon
Crewe v Sheff Utd
Walsall v Tranmere
Brentford v Preston
Milton Keynes v Tranmere
Yeovil v Swindon
Carlisle v Yeovil
Sheff Utd v Brentford
Swindon v Notts County
...optimistically we could have something like a 9 point cushion over 3rd before the end of March. Nowhere near done and dusted by then of course because our run-in is a tough one, but how damaging could that sort of gap be to the chasing pack psychologically with only 6/7 games left?
Let's get them next three games won!
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Only 5 more wins needed. Let's tick em off.
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Not going to start predicting individual matches, but I'll re-state what I've been saying for a couple of weeks - the third place team will not get more than 84 points. In fact, I'm starting to think that might be a bit on the high side.
To get 85 points, the following is required
Swindon - 22 points from 10 games
Swindon aren't good enough to get more than 22 points from 10 matches with us, Yeovil, Blades and Brentford still to play
Blades - 20 points from 10 games
Blades will struggle to get 20 points from 10 matches with Walsall, Brentford, Tranmere and Swindon to play
Yeovil - 23 points from 10 games
Yeovil are the dark horses - they have only Swindon, Walsall and Notts C to play from the top half. But they cannot afford to lose many points if they are going to get to 85.
Rest of them are out of it.
And us?
17 points from 9 games. Hard but definitely do-able. 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats.
Start with a win tomorrow and count the f**kers off.
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That's how I see it BST. I think it'll be a three horse race.
The experienced good players we have are there for a reason and I'm sure they'll be using all their guile, gamesmanship and 'class' down the home stretch.
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For the record, when I say the other sides are out of it, what I mean is that if they get promoted, it's because we will have collapsed. I'm saying that none of Tranmere, Brentford and Bournemouth will get more than 80-81 points. If they get 81 points and overtake us on the way, it's our fault that we've let them catch us and there'll be a couple of sides who have done even better and secured the top 2 places.
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Our record so far is
28 pts from 18 games at home
40pts from 19 games away
Therefore at that rate
with 5 games at home 8 pts rounded up
With 4 games away 8 pts rounded down
Total = 16 pts
68+16 =84 pts
Therefore an improvement at home of two points would see us on 86pts.
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This whole debate shows what a massive result Satdi was. I'd discounted us getting owt from Bournemouth. If we had lost, we'd now be needing 6 wins 1 draw and 2 defeats to make 84 points. That looks really tough. As it is, it looks quite tough but do-able.
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The next 3 games are massive. If we win them (IF!) we can afford to draw against Swindon and the Trannies
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There are only two teams this season who have managed to get an average of 2 pts a game in a period that's us and Tranmere. So others have now got to play above their average to get 20 pts in the last 10 games. If Tranmere did it again then they can get 81 pts.
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There's always a team or two who go on a long unbeaten run at the end of the season, say 9 wins out of 10, and reach the play offs or get promoted.
If we are anywhere near that, we'll win the title. I don't see why we should be worried about dropping points at home to Tranmere and Swindon - cautious and careful yes, but we should be setting up to win those fixtures.
Let's start with 3 points tonight, then move on to Saturday....
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I have us and Yeovil as the top 2
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Ahh the BBC predictor. I love this time of year. Will have a go at it in a sec and see what I get.
Pretty much agree with BST though, 86 points should be ample :scarf:
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It will be a massive step if we can win our next three games (which will be difficult, no doubt):
v Carlisle (H)
v Portsmouth (H)
v Scunthorpe (A)
If we do that, having to go into the last six matches needing roughly 8 points will give us a great chance.
Given that in the next three rounds of fixtures we've got:
Brentford v Swindon
Crewe v Sheff Utd
Walsall v Tranmere
Brentford v Preston
Milton Keynes v Tranmere
Yeovil v Swindon
Carlisle v Yeovil
Sheff Utd v Brentford
Swindon v Notts County
...optimistically we could have something like a 9 point cushion over 3rd before the end of March. Nowhere near done and dusted by then of course because our run-in is a tough one, but how damaging could that sort of gap be to the chasing pack psychologically with only 6/7 games left?
Let's get them next three games won!
seeing them next three round of fixtures looks like the easiest game of the lot is sheff utds at Crewe,all others are teams playing each other or Preston started well under Grayson and notts county decent away form
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The home form Of rovers work lack Of form plays
Fcuk up with my confidence on 3pts for home win.
Even so on paper the next two home games on paper are more Than winable,just dont trust our home form 100per cent today.
As for scunny away Thats a win for sure
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I think 83 points will be good enough for promotion and 74 points for the play-offs, I also think the Fanchise will make them.
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There's always a team or two who go on a long unbeaten run at the end of the season, say 9 wins out of 10, and reach the play offs or get promoted.
I'd say that there are SOMETIMES teams who come through with an excellent late run. But it's by no means guaranteed.
By the way, to put it into perspective, Sheffield Weds last season had one of the THE most spectacular late runs to make promotion. They won 11 and drew 3 of there last 14 games. 2.57 points per game which is astonishing form.
If Bournemouth manage to repeat that sort of form for the final 9 games, they'll still only get 81 points. THAT is how far out of the running Bournemouth now are for automatic promotion.
If Tranmere or Brentford repeated that sort of form, they'd still only get 86 and 87 points respectively. And let's be honest, there's no sign whatsoever that either of those clubs are going to hit that sort of form, especially given the list of teams they still have to play. Even if Tranmere and Brentford manage to suddenly hit very good form and get 2 points per game from now on (and that would take a BIG swing in form, at a time when they both have very difficult run-ins) they'll only end up with 81 points apiece.
So I'm sticking with what I've said for a few weeks. Realistically, 84-85 points will be ample for a top-2 place. And there are only four sides who can manage to get that many points. Every point that Yeovil, Blades and Swindon drop from now on is crucial for us.
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In our last L1 promotion season 207/8 we managed 3 wins 3 loses and 3 draws in our last 9 games , that's 12 points at 1.33 points a game.
That sort of form this time round would leave us on 80 points , not enough for automatic promotion IMO.
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In our last L1 promotion season 207/8 we managed 3 wins 3 loses and 3 draws in our last 9 games , that's 12 points at 1.33 points a game.
That sort of form this time round would leave us on 80 points , not enough for automatic promotion IMO.
Part of that goes back to the way seasons used to go under SOD, usually a real pruple patch after Christmas with a bit of a slow down in spring. I see us winning 5 of our last 9 at least.
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I had us on 83, 2nd behind Swindon on 84. Blades slipped to 6th with B'mth Tranmer and Yeovil taking the other playoff places.
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Here's my prediction;
Sheff Utd 91 +32
Doncaster 86 +22
Swindon 85 +39
Bournemouth 82 +24
MK Dons 82 +23
Coventry 81 +28
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Yeovil 80 +17
Tranmere 70 +11
Id be happy with that, apart from blades being above us but still wouldn't be suprised if they drop some unexpected points. Coventry and MK Dons i am suprised to see there but they do seem to have easiest run in.
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I thought Yeovil had the best run in
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I don't think anyone will get 90 points this season.
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I can see Bournemouth going on that long unbeaten run with the fixtures they have coming up. Wouldnt be suprised to see them win 7 of their last 8 games but as you rightly point out, it will probably still not be enough for automatic.
I have Sheff Utd finishing top with 87, us with 86 and Bournemouth with 83.
There's always a team or two who go on a long unbeaten run at the end of the season, say 9 wins out of 10, and reach the play offs or get promoted.
I'd say that there are SOMETIMES teams who come through with an excellent late run. But it's by no means guaranteed.
By the way, to put it into perspective, Sheffield Weds last season had one of the THE most spectacular late runs to make promotion. They won 11 and drew 3 of there last 14 games. 2.57 points per game which is astonishing form.
If Bournemouth manage to repeat that sort of form for the final 9 games, they'll still only get 81 points. THAT is how far out of the running Bournemouth now are for automatic promotion.
If Tranmere or Brentford repeated that sort of form, they'd still only get 86 and 87 points respectively. And let's be honest, there's no sign whatsoever that either of those clubs are going to hit that sort of form, especially given the list of teams they still have to play. Even if Tranmere and Brentford manage to suddenly hit very good form and get 2 points per game from now on (and that would take a BIG swing in form, at a time when they both have very difficult run-ins) they'll only end up with 81 points apiece.
So I'm sticking with what I've said for a few weeks. Realistically, 84-85 points will be ample for a top-2 place. And there are only four sides who can manage to get that many points. Every point that Yeovil, Blades and Swindon drop from now on is crucial for us.
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Here's my prediction;
Sheff Utd 91 +32
Doncaster 86 +22
Swindon 85 +39
Bournemouth 82 +24
MK Dons 82 +23
Coventry 81 +28
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Yeovil 80 +17
Tranmere 70 +11
Id be happy with that, apart from blades being above us but still wouldn't be suprised if they drop some unexpected points. Coventry and MK Dons i am suprised to see there but they do seem to have easiest run in.
No Brentford in there.
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No Brentford in there.
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Yes i had them to lose tonight 2-1 but got that one wrong.Glad i got that one wrong though because i still see it between us, sheff u and swindon for automatic promotion.Brentford beating Swindon is a bonus for us.
Can see brentford losing 3 of their next 5. Sheff U away Coventry away and MK away. Also got Preston and Notts Co at home where i can see them also dropping points.
I did have Walsall to beat Tranmere 2-0 and Yeovil to draw tonight so i got them right. Happy with that. :rtid:
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MK Dons don't have a prayer. Tonight as good as kills their season I think.
Sheffield United would have to win 8 and draw 2 of their last 10 matches to get 91 points, now that on top of their current 6 game winning run seems extremely unlikely indeed but I hope I haven't jinxed that.
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To be fair, thats virtually identical to the run Sheff Weds went on to be promoted last season. Mind, they had to change their manager to achieve it. Taxi for Wilson?
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Alias, Sheff Utd are not on a winning run. They are unbeaten in 7 but have drawn 2 of those, 2 of the last three in fact. Also of their six home games played since boxing day, they have only won one of them, loosing 3.
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Mine came up like this...
(http://i49.tinypic.com/6xuvcy.png)
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Just done it, I get us 2nd, 87 points, level with Sheff U but worse goal difference.
Yeovil (84pts), Bournemouth(83pts), Swindon(82pts), Brentford(78pts) for play-offs
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Alias, Sheff Utd are not on a winning run. They are unbeaten in 7 but have drawn 2 of those, 2 of the last three in fact. Also of their six home games played since boxing day, they have only won one of them, loosing 3.
Sorry, I meant unbeaten. It would still be an almighty run of form if they somehow earned 26 points out of 30. I really cannot see that happening at all.
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Thing is with These prediction tables ,Its human nature to predict with yer Heart not with whats between yer ears
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Thing is with These prediction tables ,Its human nature to predict with yer Heart not with whats between yer ears
There'd be a few nil nils if the latter were the case :chair:
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Anyone thinking League 1 is predictable from here is not paying atttention! So, misguidedly I predict the only thing thats for sure is at least one team will cock up (Swindon/Sheff U??) and at least one will have a late surge - Yeovil/Bournemouth?
I get a feeling its Yeovil plus us for auto promotion.
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Anyone thinking League 1 is predictable from here is not paying atttention! So, misguidedly I predict the only thing thats for sure is at least one team will cock up (Swindon/Sheff U??) and at least one will have a late surge - Yeovil/Bournemouth?
I get a feeling its Yeovil plus us for auto promotion.
I'm with you.
Yeovil in the Championship will make a few heads turn, the PL CEO's will be very frightened they could 'do a Blackpool'.
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I have us as champions and our old friends Yeovil in second. Sheff Utd in 6th!
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Did mine a week or so ago and we went up 2nd 1 point behind Sheff U. To be honest I'd snap your arm off that. It would be nice to go up as champions but promotion will do.
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Just had a bash and got
Rovers 87
Yeovil 86
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Blades 85
Swindon 83
Bournemouth 83
Brentford 80
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Coventry 76
Tranmere 75
Orient 72
I also applied the points gained from the past 8 games (or 7 or 9 depending on how many remain for each team) to the current tallies. So, if recent form is anything to go by (probably not), we'd end up like this: (I've applied current GD and goals scored to split tied teams)
Brentford 83
Rovers 82
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Blades 82
Yeovil 81
Swindon 76
Orient 74
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Coventry 73
Walsall 73
Tranmere 70
Bournemouth 70
Right, I'd best go and do something useful now :coat:
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Thought I'd bump this thread to see what people are now predicting nearly a month on...
PREVIOUS-
1 Doncaster +22 86
2 Swindon +44 84
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3 Sheff Utd +29 84
4 Yeovil +21 83
5 Brentford +20 83
6 Bournemouth +20 79
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7 Tranmere +22 78
UPDATED-
1 Doncaster +21 85
2 Sheff Utd +23 84
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3 Bournemouth +21 83
4 Brentford +17 82
5 Yeovil +17 81
6 Swindon +37 79
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7 Walsall +13 75
8 Tranmere +14 71
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crickey, you're giving blunts alot molre credit than their own fans do!
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Forget Sheff U.
How many more times do I have to say it?
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Rovers as champions on 86 and Bournemouth as runners up. blades in 4th.
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Just done the predictor, I only looked at the top 9 sides and came up with this:
1. Doncaster - 87 pts (Win title at home to Notts Co, and lose at Brentford as pissed)
2. Sheff Utd - 86
3. Yeovil - 82
4. Brentford - 82
5. Swindon - 80
6. Coventry - 79 (GD +26)
7. Bournemouth - 79 (GD +19)
8. Walsall - 76
9. Tranmere - 69
Done it again
1. Rovers 87
2. Bournemouth 85
3. Sheffield 82
4. Brentford 81
5. Swindon 79
6. Yeovil 77
7. Walsall 73
8. Tranmere 69
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Not a deal of difference except Bournemouth's recent good form and Sheffield dropping some points has seen them swap places..
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Had a go on the predictor and think we will win 3 and draw 1 of our last four games which will see us win the title and Walsall will be denied by Swindons superior goal difference.
1. Rovers 88
2. Bournemouth 85
3. Sheffield United 81
4. Yeovil 81
5. Brentford 76
6. Swindon 75
7. Walsall 75
8. Leyton Orient 71
9. MK Dons 70
10. Tranmere 69
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Ain't done this yet but I reckon bournemouth and us will be close in automatics, their form is amazing and they don't look like losing at moment.. Hopefully we can do the same and power our way to the title! You reds!