Viking Supporters Co-operative
Viking Chat => Off Topic => Topic started by: IC1967 on April 29, 2015, 09:06:06 am
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Right. The time has come to test out whether my total demolition job on left wing socialist ideology has paid off. I know a lot of us will be voting tactically as our first past the post system is totally unfair. However for the purposes of this poll I'd appreciate it if you would pick who you really want and assume we had proportional representation. For example I'll be kicking things off by picking UKIP but will actually be voting Labour in Doncaster.
I'm hoping that I've totally discredited Labour and this will be reflected in the above poll.
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I thought you were voting tactically to try to keep Labour out? Though any result other than a Labour win in Donny would be as likely as our current team winning six on the bounce.
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TRB
Hang on? I thought Nigel was standing against Ed and was going to take him a ta-ta?
Or was it Jeremy, I forget now.
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Ed's now 1.67 on Betfair to be the next PM after pretty relentless recent support. CON are 1.3 to get most seats, it's a bizarre system we have.
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Ed's now 1.67 on Betfair to be the next PM after pretty relentless recent support. CON are 1.3 to get most seats, it's a bizarre system we have.
Sounds about right to me. A good bet would be how long it will take after the election to form a Government. It may take 2-3 weeks unless two parties are willing to enter a coalition.
The only party that seems keen on a coalition is the Lib Dems and it is hard to see them holding the balance of power on their own.
PS. When they say "the next PM" it is worth checking the timescale. If the Tories are the largest single party but well short of a majority then Cameron will have to stay on as PM until he or Miliband can form a government.
PPS. What odds on a 1974-style second General Election in the autumn?
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TRB
No doubt in that scenario, The Sun and the Mail will run those headlines screaming for the "squatter" to get out of Downing Street, like they did in 2010?
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Can someone educate me, who has first dibs at being a minority government if a majority can't be created?
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Gaz
No standard approach to who has first dibs.
The key is that someone needs to be able to survive a vote of confidence in the House. Any Party that can't get enough support (or agreements to abstain) to survive such a vote, cannot form a Govt.
They'll all be negotiating behind the scenes and doing "what if" analyses to see if they can buy off small parties. No one will want to go into a vote of confidence without having a good idea that they will win in. It would be humiliating to lose such a vote.
So the serious attempt at forming a Govt will come from the party that feels confident enough to face a vote of confidence.
But there's a catch. The PM remains PM until he either loses a VoC or accepts that he can't win one and goes to the Queen to resign. So in that sense, Cameron gets the first go. Even if Miliband thinks he can put an agreement forward that would result in him surviving a VoC, he doesn't get the chance to try it unless Cameron resigns or has a go at a VoC himself and loses.
Could take weeks. A few years ago, Belgium went 18 months or so without a Govt after a split election result.
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PS
In simple terms, the Tories probably need 290 seats to be able to survive a VoC (assuming they have, say 25 LDs, 2UKIP and 8 DUP votes on their side in a VoC.
Labour could probably survive a VoC with 265 votes if SNP, SDLP, PC, Greens agree to support them in a VoC. Maybe less if the LDs came in board as well. But who can tell who the LDs would support, eh?
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TRB
No doubt in that scenario, The Sun and the Mail will run those headlines screaming for the "squatter" to get out of Downing Street, like they did in 2010?
I'm sure there will be plenty of ill-informed comment if that scenario does come about. Of course there was a fairly recent precedent from February 1974 when Ted Heath hung on for a few days in hopes of cutting a deal with Jeremy Thorpe's Liberals.
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I thought you were voting tactically to try to keep Labour out? Though any result other than a Labour win in Donny would be as likely as our current team winning six on the bounce.
No. You need to read the 'I've changed my mind' thread. I want Labour to win and form a government that lasts about 2 years before it falls apart and then they will be unelectable for a generation.
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Hmm...funny how UKIP shoots up the moment Mick (and presumably his other aliases) pops up again..! ;)
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Hmm...funny how UKIP shoots up the moment Mick (and presumably his other aliases) pops up again..! ;)
Hahahaha! The mods know there is no alias foul play at work here. Interesting results so far. UKIP/Tories getting a bigger share than Labour.
My work has been worthwhile.
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I love the way Mick, our Resident Idiot, simply can't bring himself to let anything go! Now that I don't get to see the shite he souts, it's really both entertaining and informative simply seeing when and how often I get the fantastic line " You are ignoring this User" He rises to the bait every single time. And quite often he gets in such a lather that he has to relieve himself two or even three times. Bloke's a tosser in every sense.
BobG
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I love the way Mick, our Resident Idiot, simply can't bring himself to let anything go! Now that I don't get to see the shite he souts, it's really both entertaining and informative simply seeing when and how often I get the fantastic line " You are ignoring this User" He rises to the bait every single time. And quite often he gets in such a lather that he has to relieve himself two or even three times. Bloke's a tosser in every sense.
BobG
Hahahahahaha! I'd have a word with your psychiatrist mate. Tell him to clear his appointment list and get yourself booked in. He'll have his hands full sorting you out. I'd first ask him to sort out your homo erotic tendencies where you can't seem to post without indulging in this kind of fantasy.
IC1967
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Hmm...funny how UKIP shoots up the moment Mick (and presumably his other aliases) pops up again..! ;)
Hahahaha! The mods no there is no alias foul play at work here. Interesting results so far. UKIP/Tories getting a bigger share than Labour.
My work has been worthwhile.
It's first past the post so tough tits.
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Hmm...funny how UKIP shoots up the moment Mick (and presumably his other aliases) pops up again..! ;)
Hahahaha! The mods no there is no alias foul play at work here. Interesting results so far. UKIP/Tories getting a bigger share than Labour.
My work has been worthwhile.
It's first past the post so tough tits.
There speaks the voice of a democrat.
Interesting poll results so far. Just shows that Labour have lost a lot of support over the last 5 years. UKIP showing up strongly at the expense of Labour for the most part I'd bet. When you think UKIP only had 3% of the vote at the last election it is plain to see they've made huge strides.
This is not the general election where we break through. It's the next one. Just look how quickly Labour were wiped out in Scotland. The same can happen in England.
2 years of a shambolic Labour government should do the trick.
Get in.
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Wales don't seem to be happy with how Labour have been doing things. The NHS is in a right state there apparently.
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When it's the Westminster Parliament that controls the purse strings for the Welsh Assembly just how much influence and power do you think ANY party has in Wales Gaz?
The Welsh Govt has been well and truly hamstrung by the lack of Westminster funding for Wlaes. It's so bad that the Welsh generally, of all parties, have been banging on for a while now about the desparate need to bring their funding upto the level enjoyed by Scotland! And no one could say that the Scots are overly well endowed by London could they?!!!! From memory, health in the Welsh Assembly is under funded by over £3BN compared to Scotland and Scotland is underfunded by billions more compared to England and that, again, is underfunded by billions more compared to the south of England.
Don't you remember what the first act of the wonderful Cameron Govt was back in 2010? To refuse a measly couple of huindred million guarantee (a guarantee! Not yer actual money) to Sheffield Forgemasters which would have allowed them to buy the kit to enhance their already top level status to being one of the few world leaders? The Tories were taking their revenge. And they've done exactly the same to Wales and Scotland ever since too. Areas that don't vote Tory get their funding chopped off at the knees. So don't blame the Labour Govt in Wales. They've done a f***ing fantastic job in the circumstances.
BobG
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Over here in Northern Ireland I'm feeling a little left out of this poll with those options......
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Over here in Northern Ireland I'm feeling a little left out of this poll with those options......
The hard truth is that in England we couldn't care less about Northern Ireland. It's about time you joined up with the South and became one great country again. It won't happen though because us English give you too much money.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/1580787/How-the-Barnett-formula-works.html
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When it's the Westminster Parliament that controls the purse strings for the Welsh Assembly just how much influence and power do you think ANY party has in Wales Gaz?
The Welsh Govt has been well and truly hamstrung by the lack of Westminster funding for Wlaes. It's so bad that the Welsh generally, of all parties, have been banging on for a while now about the desparate need to bring their funding upto the level enjoyed by Scotland! And no one could say that the Scots are overly well endowed by London could they?!!!! From memory, health in the Welsh Assembly is under funded by over £3BN compared to Scotland and Scotland is underfunded by billions more compared to England and that, again, is underfunded by billions more compared to the south of England.
Don't you remember what the first act of the wonderful Cameron Govt was back in 2010? To refuse a measly couple of huindred million guarantee (a guarantee! Not yer actual money) to Sheffield Forgemasters which would have allowed them to buy the kit to enhance their already top level status to being one of the few world leaders? The Tories were taking their revenge. And they've done exactly the same to Wales and Scotland ever since too. Areas that don't vote Tory get their funding chopped off at the knees. So don't blame the Labour Govt in Wales. They've done a f***ing fantastic job in the circumstances.
BobG
Total cobblers. England is the poor relation when it comes to who gets the most money.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/1580787/How-the-Barnett-formula-works.html
IC1967
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Over here in Northern Ireland I'm feeling a little left out of this poll with those options......
The hard truth is that in England we couldn't care less about Northern Ireland. It's about time you joined up with the South and became one great country again. It won't happen though because us English give you too much money.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/1580787/How-the-Barnett-formula-works.html
Well that's not true.
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Over here in Northern Ireland I'm feeling a little left out of this poll with those options......
The hard truth is that in England we couldn't care less about Northern Ireland. It's about time you joined up with the South and became one great country again. It won't happen though because us English give you too much money.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/1580787/How-the-Barnett-formula-works.html
Well that's not true.
What's not true?
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Over here in Northern Ireland I'm feeling a little left out of this poll with those options......
The hard truth is that in England we couldn't care less about Northern Ireland. It's about time you joined up with the South and became one great country again. It won't happen though because us English give you too much money.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/1580787/How-the-Barnett-formula-works.html
That bit.
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Over here in Northern Ireland I'm feeling a little left out of this poll with those options......
The hard truth is that in England we couldn't care less about Northern Ireland. It's about time you joined up with the South and became one great country again. It won't happen though because us English give you too much money.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/1580787/How-the-Barnett-formula-works.html
That bit.
You're entitled to your opinion. I beg to differ. In fact Northern Irish Catholics are more in favour of keeping the union than the English are. With good reason. Northern Ireland costs England a fortune. The sooner we get rid the better.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/edwest/100095628/northern-ireland-catholics-are-now-more-unionist-than-the-english-can-the-united-kingdom-last/
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Interesting that you are putting forward another reason for the Conservative and Unionist Party not to exist, I wonder what David Cameron thinks of that?
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Interesting that you are putting forward another reason for the Conservative and Unionist Party not to exist, I wonder what David Cameron thinks of that?
The Tories couldn't care less about Northern Ireland. They'd be glad to see the back of it. Once Scotland goes the inevitable way of independence they'll just need to change their name to the Conservative party and we can work towards getting rid of Wales and Northern Ireland too.
At the very least they should only get the same money as England. If they don't like it, tough titty.
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Oh I think you may be a somewhat wrong there. Anyway I thought you were a big picture type of person, have you forgotten that all our positions of influence in the UN, G8 etc are held as the United Kingdom. If that goes... we shall be as influential as Switzerland.
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Oh I think you may be a somewhat wrong there. Anyway I thought you were a big picture type of person, have you forgotten that all our positions of influence in the UN, G8 etc are held as the United Kingdom. If that goes... we shall be as influential as Switzerland.
Good. We've been living on past glories for far too long.
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That's really quite funny Wilts. Our Resident Idiot didn't know that the Tory party comprises the Conservative AND the Unionist parties. Has done for a very long time too. So the Tory party of which he is so proud have had a significant stake in Northern Ireland for a very long time. They do care. They have to. Why, do you think. the Tory govt has not attacked the funding of N Ireland to anything like the degree it has in Wales, Scotland and northern England?!
Mick lad. It's time you stopped frothing at the mouth and learned a few facts. Even though I can't see your posts you are making me laugh out loud just about every single day still. This one's a cracker. Go do another one. You might just calm down a bit and be able to learn to think before you write.
BobG
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That's really quite funny Wilts. Our Resident Idiot didn't know that the Tory party comprises the Conservative AND the Unionist parties. Has done for a very long time too. So the Tory party of which he is so proud have had a significant stake in Northern Ireland for a very long time. They do care. They have to. Why, do you think. the Tory govt has not attacked the funding of N Ireland to anything like the degree it has in Wales, Scotland and northern England?!
Mick lad. It's time you stopped frothing at the mouth and learned a few facts. Even though I can't see your posts you are making me laugh out loud just about every single day still. This one's a cracker. Go do another one. You might just calm down a bit and be able to learn to think before you write.
BobG
Of course I knew the name of the party. What you lefties need to realise is that it's just a name. Once we get rid of the other sponging parts of the UK it can easily be changed.
Now just admit it daft Bob, you are secretly reading all my posts. You just can't help yourself. We all know it and you say you're not reading them because it's a convenient excuse for not answering my pertinent questions. Pathetic.
At least you've stopped with the homo erotic nonsense.
IC1967
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You're just like Pavlov's dog y'know Mick.
BobG
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You're just like Pavlov's dog y'know Mick.
BobG
That's a much better criticism. See. There's no need to swear and indulge your homo erotic fantasies. You strike me as having a reasonable amount of intelligence. If you're going to have a go at me use your brain and try to stop posting like someone who has spent all his life in the gutter.
You should see some of the abuse I've had thrown at me. Take a leaf out of my book. On the whole I've managed to rise above it.
Ask yourself a question. Who is the better man? The abuser/bully or the person on the receiving end who rises above it?
I think you know the answer.
Now get an abject apology sorted for all the horrid things you've said about me and maybe we can start afresh.
Get on with it man. You'll feel so much better.
IC1967
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Well. I'm feeling very pleased with myself today. Who'd have thought that on such a hard left forum that UKIP and the Tories would have a bigger share of the vote than Labour.
It just goes to show that my exposing leftie ideology for what it is has changed a lot of minds.
This has given me great encouragement and given me fresh impetus to carry on my good work as the voice of reason.
Silly Billy's blood pressure will be off the scale.
Get in.
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Pavlov's dog redoubled! You really are very funny Mick. You are so, so, SO bloody predictable. It's hysterical. I bet I could tell you what your next post is going to be about.
Love an kisses
BobG
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Pavlov's dog redoubled! You really are very funny Mick. You are so, so, SO bloody predictable. It's hysterical. I bet I could tell you what your next post is going to be about.
Love an kisses
BobG
Look. I've been accused of being contradictory without a shred of evidence. You claim you've blocked me then reply to my posts! Now that's what I call a contradiction. You couldn't make it up.
Look. Since you've obviously not blocked me could you please answer the questions on TTIP. Foolish Wilts would be very grateful if you could clear that one up as I've been running rings around him on that one.
I must congratulate you on the tenor of your recent responses. You've still got a way to go, but you're getting there.
It might not be a bad idea to go back over all your posts attacking me and cleaning them up. This would restore a small bit of your credibility around here.
Not quite sure you've managed to get rid of the homo erotic tendencies ending your post with 'Love and kisses' but it is an improvement.
Keep up the good work. Hopefully you'll get there in the end.
Now where the hell is that abject apology?
IC1967
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That's really quite funny Wilts. Our Resident Idiot didn't know that the Tory party comprises the Conservative AND the Unionist parties. Has done for a very long time too. So the Tory party of which he is so proud have had a significant stake in Northern Ireland for a very long time. They do care. They have to. Why, do you think. the Tory govt has not attacked the funding of N Ireland to anything like the degree it has in Wales, Scotland and northern England?!
Mick lad. It's time you stopped frothing at the mouth and learned a few facts. Even though I can't see your posts you are making me laugh out loud just about every single day still. This one's a cracker. Go do another one. You might just calm down a bit and be able to learn to think before you write.
BobG
Bob- I think the Unionist bit these days only relates to the fact that the Conservative Party is in favour of maintaining the Union. They have no formal links to any of the Unionist Parties in NI.
They did link up with the Ulster Unionists before the last GE but it caused controversy and the one UU MP left the party because she would not take the Tory whip at Westminster. She was elected as an Independent Unionist.
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Ooh I love it when someone abuses me personally by name - it means you are really getting to them. No need to answer the question about TTIP Bob, it is actually about Mick's ability to read and the extend of his truthfullness and dishonesty. Which I have conclusively proven is non-existant.
And just to confirm that he claims to have known something that his earlier statement shows he didn't! Contradictory as ever.
Should I add this to your list of apologies Mick or do you prefer to give me one all-embracing one?
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Ooh I love it when someone abuses me personally by name - it means you are really getting to them. No need to answer the question about TTIP Bob, it is actually about Mick's ability to read and the extend of his truthfullness and dishonesty. Which I have conclusively proven is non-existant.
And just to confirm that he claims to have known something that his earlier statement shows he didn't! Contradictory as ever.
Should I add this to your list of apologies Mick or do you prefer to give me one all-embracing one?
What on earth does 'the extend of his truthfullness' mean?
:crying:
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Heading back towards being evens each in the PM market. Ed's poor performance on QT resulted in a massive drift.
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Gaz
In betting money perhaps. Not in the polls. Three polls yesterday. Labour ahead in 2. Level in 1.
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Yes I saw that as well, I'm inclined to follow bet fair though as opposed to the polls. To be honest in truth I don't think anyone has a clue what will happen, I think there could be a very turbulent month coming up, and it might end up being uncertain for a lot longer than that. I think the chances of another GE in the next year is only about 3/1 ish.
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One thing is pretty clear. Whoever is PM after next week, we are going to be in utterly unchartered waters. It's not going to be like 2010 where there was a solid numerical majority for a pair of parties combined. It wasn't absolutely nailed in in those circumstances that there HAD to be a stable coalition (could have been a minority Tory Govt with LD support on a case by case basis). But once the LDs had chosen to go the coalition route, that WAS a stable grouping.
This is not going to happen after next week. Firstly, unless the polls are way off or unless there is a major swing in the last week, no pair of parties are going to have anything close to even a wafer-thin majority, nevermind the clunking great 60-odd seat majority that the current coalition has had.
So, whoever does manage to cobble something together next week, it'll be a rickety edifice, relying on back room deals and arm-twisting to work. It'll mean that the PM has the outward appearance of being weak, even though behind the scenes, there'll be some fearfully hard and tough politicking going on.
Just remember that it could be either Miliband or Cameron who ends up in the unenviable position. The loser will make a big play on the winner being a haplessly weak PM, at the beck and call of smaller parties. That will be irrelevant. The winner will be trying to do their best with a horrifically difficult situation.
Fascinating politics, the like of which we've never seen in this country.
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Even the minority Labour government supported by the Libs in the 70's wasn't in such a tough position as this is going to be. You can see the headlines in the Mail now, can't you, if it's Milliband who gets the short straw?
BobG
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Yes I saw that as well, I'm inclined to follow bet fair though as opposed to the polls. To be honest in truth I don't think anyone has a clue what will happen, I think there could be a very turbulent month coming up, and it might end up being uncertain for a lot longer than that. I think the chances of another GE in the next year is only about 3/1 ish.
More likely than 3-1 against, I would think. Well worth a bet.
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Yes I saw that as well, I'm inclined to follow bet fair though as opposed to the polls. To be honest in truth I don't think anyone has a clue what will happen, I think there could be a very turbulent month coming up, and it might end up being uncertain for a lot longer than that. I think the chances of another GE in the next year is only about 3/1 ish.
More likely than 3-1 against, I would think. Well worth a bet.
I see you lefties are getting worried. So you should be. Why on earth do you think I now want Labour to form a minority government? It will be shambolic from start to finish (2 years max). Look what's happened to them in Scotland. The same thing can happen to them in England.
If I were you I'd be voting to keep Labour out. I still think the Tories will get an overall majority. Worst case they'll form a coalition with the LibDems again.
I'm praying I'm wrong as a Labour victory will see them finished.
Come on Ed! Get your finger out!
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Right. This poll has been up long enough. The results are conclusive.
This forum is now more right wing than left wing.
Billy bullshit and his cronies have failed miserably and the voice of reason has triumphed against overwhelming odds.
Get in.
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One thing is pretty clear. Whoever is PM after next week, we are going to be in utterly unchartered waters. It's not going to be like 2010 where there was a solid numerical majority for a pair of parties combined. It wasn't absolutely nailed in in those circumstances that there HAD to be a stable coalition (could have been a minority Tory Govt with LD support on a case by case basis). But once the LDs had chosen to go the coalition route, that WAS a stable grouping.
This is not going to happen after next week. Firstly, unless the polls are way off or unless there is a major swing in the last week, no pair of parties are going to have anything close to even a wafer-thin majority, nevermind the clunking great 60-odd seat majority that the current coalition has had.
So, whoever does manage to cobble something together next week, it'll be a rickety edifice, relying on back room deals and arm-twisting to work. It'll mean that the PM has the outward appearance of being weak, even though behind the scenes, there'll be some fearfully hard and tough politicking going on.
Just remember that it could be either Miliband or Cameron who ends up in the unenviable position. The loser will make a big play on the winner being a haplessly weak PM, at the beck and call of smaller parties. That will be irrelevant. The winner will be trying to do their best with a horrifically difficult situation.
Fascinating politics, the like of which we've never seen in this country.
I suppose the only possible parallel would be the December 1923 GE when the Tories under Baldwin were the largest party but we ended up with a short lived minority Labour government with Liberal support. However it was very much a three -party situation. There could be several parties holding the balance of power this time.
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Yes I saw that as well, I'm inclined to follow bet fair though as opposed to the polls. To be honest in truth I don't think anyone has a clue what will happen, I think there could be a very turbulent month coming up, and it might end up being uncertain for a lot longer than that. I think the chances of another GE in the next year is only about 3/1 ish.
More likely than 3-1 against, I would think. Well worth a bet.
I see you lefties are getting worried. So you should be. Why on earth do you think I now want Labour to form a minority government? It will be shambolic from start to finish (2 years max). Look what's happened to them in Scotland. The same thing can happen to them in England.
If I were you I'd be voting to keep Labour out. I still think the Tories will get an overall majority. Worst case they'll form a coalition with the LibDems again.
I'm praying I'm wrong as a Labour victory will see them finished.
Come on Ed! Get your finger out!
And it's clearly demonstrated just how UKIP are going to split the Tory vote and let Labour in.
Get in.
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Greens and Lib Dems holding the balance of power, hmm, well...
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Yes I saw that as well, I'm inclined to follow bet fair though as opposed to the polls. To be honest in truth I don't think anyone has a clue what will happen, I think there could be a very turbulent month coming up, and it might end up being uncertain for a lot longer than that. I think the chances of another GE in the next year is only about 3/1 ish.
More likely than 3-1 against, I would think. Well worth a bet.
I see you lefties are getting worried. So you should be. Why on earth do you think I now want Labour to form a minority government? It will be shambolic from start to finish (2 years max). Look what's happened to them in Scotland. The same thing can happen to them in England.
If I were you I'd be voting to keep Labour out. I still think the Tories will get an overall majority. Worst case they'll form a coalition with the LibDems again.
I'm praying I'm wrong as a Labour victory will see them finished.
Come on Ed! Get your finger out!
And it's clearly demonstrated just how UKIP are going to split the Tory vote and let Labour in.
Get in.
I see Mick is applying his policy of laying off his bets to his predictions now.
It's understandable given how often he's made a cock of himself by predicting that A would happen only to see B happen, where B is the complete opposite of A.
But I'm sure there's a word for people like that. Not sure which one matches best.
Spineless?
Gutless?
Laughable?
Take your pick.
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Must say it's a closer vote than I thought it would be
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Who did you think would pull away Bpool?
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Yes I saw that as well, I'm inclined to follow bet fair though as opposed to the polls. To be honest in truth I don't think anyone has a clue what will happen, I think there could be a very turbulent month coming up, and it might end up being uncertain for a lot longer than that. I think the chances of another GE in the next year is only about 3/1 ish.
More likely than 3-1 against, I would think. Well worth a bet.
I see you lefties are getting worried. So you should be. Why on earth do you think I now want Labour to form a minority government? It will be shambolic from start to finish (2 years max). Look what's happened to them in Scotland. The same thing can happen to them in England.
If I were you I'd be voting to keep Labour out. I still think the Tories will get an overall majority. Worst case they'll form a coalition with the LibDems again.
I'm praying I'm wrong as a Labour victory will see them finished.
Come on Ed! Get your finger out!
And it's clearly demonstrated just how UKIP are going to split the Tory vote and let Labour in.
Get in.
I hope you're right but must ask how you have come to this conclusion based on 51 votes on a forum. Correct me if I'm wrong but a sample size of only 51 is not something to be basing such a bold statement on.
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Who did you think would pull away Bpool?
Are you thick? It's obvious he thought Labour would easily win the poll. Well it just goes to show how persuasive my arguments have been and how you have failed abysmally every time you've gone up against me.
You thought you were Billy know it all. You must be sick as a pig at my powers of persuasion. Well I've got some advice for you. Get over yourself.
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Yes I saw that as well, I'm inclined to follow bet fair though as opposed to the polls. To be honest in truth I don't think anyone has a clue what will happen, I think there could be a very turbulent month coming up, and it might end up being uncertain for a lot longer than that. I think the chances of another GE in the next year is only about 3/1 ish.
More likely than 3-1 against, I would think. Well worth a bet.
I see you lefties are getting worried. So you should be. Why on earth do you think I now want Labour to form a minority government? It will be shambolic from start to finish (2 years max). Look what's happened to them in Scotland. The same thing can happen to them in England.
If I were you I'd be voting to keep Labour out. I still think the Tories will get an overall majority. Worst case they'll form a coalition with the LibDems again.
I'm praying I'm wrong as a Labour victory will see them finished.
Come on Ed! Get your finger out!
And it's clearly demonstrated just how UKIP are going to split the Tory vote and let Labour in.
Get in.
I see Mick is applying his policy of laying off his bets to his predictions now.
It's understandable given how often he's made a cock of himself by predicting that A would happen only to see B happen, where B is the complete opposite of A.
But I'm sure there's a word for people like that. Not sure which one matches best.
Spineless?
Gutless?
Laughable?
Take your pick.
Excuse me. I've been consistent in predicting a Tory majority. No change there. The next likeliest scenario IMHO is a Tory LibDem coalition. No change there.
Recently I changed my mind about what I wanted the outcome to be. I want Labour to form a minority government that will fail abysmally and be unelectable for a generation.
You sir are trying to make out I've changed my prediction to suit the current polls. I haven't. You as usual try to twist things to suit your own agenda. You're just a bad loser and everyone can see through your stupidity when you make the above remarks.
Get over yourself and get an abject apology sorted pronto.
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Ha ha ha ha!!!!
Our Resident Idiot is getting even worse! THREE consecutive posts now! You poor dear Mick. Didn't the thrapping work very well then? You have to do it again? Can't get it up these days what with all that sitting around you do? Poor lad. Or is it verbal diarroeah you've got?
Ladies and Gentlemen: I give you our Resident Idiot, Mick. The Pavlovian bitch. The pillock who can't construct a post. The fool who can't restrain himself. The liar who never stops lying. The loser who makes predictions and then backtracks on pretty well all of them when events prove him wrong - again. The laughing stock who spouts so much shite you have to wonder just what happens every 28 days? Oh. And did I say he is a liar? Thats l i a r.
Mick me lad. Tell me. How long is your nose?
BobG
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I thought I'd copy you Mick. Just this once like.
I thought folk might like to be reminded of your most salient trait: you lie. Yep. You are a liar Mick. Incontrovertibly and unceasingly. What's it like to not know the meaning of truth? To know that every single person on this forum - except your made up clones of course - despises you as a result? Mind, I suppose our Resident Idiot is so dense and impervious to thought that he'll never know the full meaning.
Keep it up Mick lad. You're giving us endless hours of entertainment. I might even type out some of the choice quotes I got from my one of my friends. He's the psychologist I told you about. He's rather concerned about you actually. He thinks you are in pretty urgent need of serious help. I told him you didn't need help. What you need is a rope.
BobG
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I genuinely fear for your mental health daft Bob. Your obsession with having a go at me (even though allegedly you don't read my posts) is incomprehensible. Your constant use of homo erotic comments is very worrying.
You sound like a very sad old man who is very bitter and twisted. You need to be spending more time with your psychologist mate but as a patient.
Get well soon.
IC1967
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Two words: Pavlov. Dog.
BobG
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Two words: Pavlov. Dog.
BobG
One word: LIAR
(explanation for daft Bob's mates - never reads my posts but is constantly replying to them).
IC1967
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Two words: Pavlov. Dog.
BobG
You missed out the other important element - Saliva.
But I see Mick's quite kindly just supplied some.
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Well. I'm feeling very pleased with myself today. Who'd have thought that on such a hard left forum that UKIP and the Tories would have a bigger share of the vote than Labour.
It just goes to show that my exposing leftie ideology for what it is has changed a lot of minds.
This has given me great encouragement and given me fresh impetus to carry on my good work as the voice of reason.
Silly Billy's blood pressure will be off the scale.
Get in.
And if you add Green & Labour its bigger than Tory/Ukip. Bellend.
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Well. I'm feeling very pleased with myself today. Who'd have thought that on such a hard left forum that UKIP and the Tories would have a bigger share of the vote than Labour.
It just goes to show that my exposing leftie ideology for what it is has changed a lot of minds.
This has given me great encouragement and given me fresh impetus to carry on my good work as the voice of reason.
Silly Billy's blood pressure will be off the scale.
Get in.
And if you add Green & Labour its bigger than Tory/Ukip. Bellend.
Excuse me. If you're having the Greens then I'm having the LibDems.
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The point is the Greens are far to the left of Labour. Your argument you claim is you've smashed the lefties. Clearly not. Jog on you crank.
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The point is the Greens are far to the left of Labour. Your argument you claim is you've smashed the lefties. Clearly not. Jog on you crank.
The biggest cranks are the Greens.
Look. It's very simple. Before I started posting on this forum Labour would have won this poll by a landslide. I'm sure the hardcore lefties on this forum have been shocked at just how many people I've turned to the right side.
It is clear that I have overwhelmingly won the debate with you lefties. I will continue to be the voice of reason and look forward to support for the right to continue to grow.
Now if I could just offer you some advice. Don't just vote Labour because that's what your mum and dad did. That is not a good enough reason. Losing the potty mouth would also be an improvement.
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Yup. There's Pavlov's bitch again. Right on Mick. Never let us down do you?
Oh. And don't forget the rope.
BobG
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Yes I saw that as well, I'm inclined to follow bet fair though as opposed to the polls. To be honest in truth I don't think anyone has a clue what will happen, I think there could be a very turbulent month coming up, and it might end up being uncertain for a lot longer than that. I think the chances of another GE in the next year is only about 3/1 ish.
More likely than 3-1 against, I would think. Well worth a bet.
I see you lefties are getting worried. So you should be. Why on earth do you think I now want Labour to form a minority government? It will be shambolic from start to finish (2 years max). Look what's happened to them in Scotland. The same thing can happen to them in England.
If I were you I'd be voting to keep Labour out. I still think the Tories will get an overall majority. Worst case they'll form a coalition with the LibDems again.
I'm praying I'm wrong as a Labour victory will see them finished.
Come on Ed! Get your finger out!
And it's clearly demonstrated just how UKIP are going to split the Tory vote and let Labour in.
Get in.
I'm not quite sure that it will work out that way. UKIP followers are across the board at present but I think they will vote tactically come Thursday and that the Lib/Dem voting % and number of seats will be higher than predicted .
A minority Labour Govt propped up by the SNP will become somewhat burdensome to a Labour party short on strength in depth and at odds with the SNP in many areas. Hate to agree with Mick but this could damage the Labour party in much the same way as the L/Dems were damaged during the last Parliament. Either way this is a completely new direction for British politics.
Ed is on a loser either way, the SNP smell blood and many concessions ?
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Yes I saw that as well, I'm inclined to follow bet fair though as opposed to the polls. To be honest in truth I don't think anyone has a clue what will happen, I think there could be a very turbulent month coming up, and it might end up being uncertain for a lot longer than that. I think the chances of another GE in the next year is only about 3/1 ish.
More likely than 3-1 against, I would think. Well worth a bet.
I see you lefties are getting worried. So you should be. Why on earth do you think I now want Labour to form a minority government? It will be shambolic from start to finish (2 years max). Look what's happened to them in Scotland. The same thing can happen to them in England.
If I were you I'd be voting to keep Labour out. I still think the Tories will get an overall majority. Worst case they'll form a coalition with the LibDems again.
I'm praying I'm wrong as a Labour victory will see them finished.
Come on Ed! Get your finger out!
And it's clearly demonstrated just how UKIP are going to split the Tory vote and let Labour in.
Get in.
I'm not quite sure that it will work out that way. UKIP followers are across the board at present but I think they will vote tactically come Thursday and that the Lib/Dem voting % and number of seats will be higher than predicted .
A minority Labour Govt propped up by the SNP will become somewhat burdensome to a Labour party short on strength in depth and at odds with the SNP in many areas. Hate to agree with Mick but this could damage the Labour party in much the same way as the L/Dems were damaged during the last Parliament. Either way this is a completely new direction for British politics.
Ed is on a loser either way, the SNP smell blood and many concessions ?
Hoola, me and you have got it sussed. I'm as right wing as they come but for the longer term good of the country I'm praying red Ed becomes prime minister. I think he'll do anything he can to get power and he will have his own interests at heart rather than that of the country. This spells long term disaster for Labour.
Silly Billy knows this and I imagine he is a very unhappy bunny at the moment. He can't win. Either we get a Tory government or we get a shambolic Labour government.
Get in.
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Mick I love the fact that you actually think the crap that you write on this forum has actually persuaded people to vote for UKIP rather than Labour! Nothing to do with the failed coalition government that have looked after the rich and taken from the poor!
The people that are and will be voting for UKIP do not understand what this party is and what this party truly stand for other than the rubbish that Farage has been feeding the British press with over the past few years. I don't even think half of the UKIP politicians even quite understand, looking at the majority of the ones I have seen on TV I would be surprised if they even have as many brain cells as you Mick put together. I am sure they do not know that Farage was a dirty scheming money making Banker who's beliefs are far worse than the Tory party.
I am not a fan of Ed by any stretch of the imagination but I would rather vote for a weak Labour party than see the dispicable Tories back in power again!
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Mick I love the fact that you actually think the crap that you write on this forum has actually persuaded people to vote for UKIP rather than Labour! Nothing to do with the failed coalition government that have looked after the rich and taken from the poor!
The people that are and will be voting for UKIP do not understand what this party is and what this party truly stand for other than the rubbish that Farage has been feeding the British press with over the past few years. I don't even think half of the UKIP politicians even quite understand, looking at the majority of the ones I have seen on TV I would be surprised if they even have as many brain cells as you Mick put together. I am sure they do not know that Farage was a dirty scheming money making Banker who's beliefs are far worse than the Tory party.
I am not a fan of Ed by any stretch of the imagination but I would rather vote for a weak Labour party than see the dispicable Tories back in power again!
I'm glad you will be voting Labour. I want them to form a weak government. This will destroy them. I'm glad most of you lefties haven't worked that one out.
Us Ukippers know what UKIP stands for. Out of the EU. That's it.
Sorted.
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Brilliant! So now you've said (at some point or other) you want the Tories, UKIP and Labour to win! :woot:
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Nick the flying Brick is standing in Doncaster North, he intends to abolish gravity and turn Conisborough Castle into an intergalactic space port :--)
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Nick the flying Brick is standing in Doncaster North, he intends to abolish gravity and turn Conisborough Castle into an intergalactic space port :--)
Sounds as sensible as a lot of the stuff I've heard in this election.
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I must say I am disappointed to see how Mick has affected voting intentions on the forum.
Out of, what is it 1700 registered voters, of which 300 or so are reguarly active, 60 have voted. That's 20% of regular users which leads me to conclude, 80% of the forum had been bored s******s by his witterings and will not be participating in the election.
Well done Mick, influencing people to stay away in their droves since c2010.
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Watch this space.
I'll be making an extremely accurate prediction of what's going to happen before midnight on Thursday (in terms of number of seats for the major parties).
This will save you all having to stay up all night to see what's going to happen.
Trust me. I know what I'm talking about. I'll be going to bed before midnight and getting up at about 8.00am to watch the news to find out I was right.
How about telling us on Thursday before 10pm so that we get your predictions before the exit polls are revealed?
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I must say I am disappointed to see how Mick has affected voting intentions on the forum.
Out of, what is it 1700 registered voters, of which 300 or so are reguarly active, 60 have voted. That's 20% of regular users which leads me to conclude, 80% of the forum had been bored s******s by his witterings and will not be participating in the election.
Well done Mick, influencing people to stay away in their droves since c2010.
Stats eh! Funny really how they can be used to make a point. The turnout for IC's poll isn't really THAT bad if you consider how much better it is that the Pessimists v Optimists competition, of which about 13% take part (based on your figures).............And that is the most popular score prediction competition in the history of this forum!
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I'll be voting Labour. But then I'm a fan of social justice.
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I think it's a great turnout considering most people don't even bother reading Off Topic (I'm reliably informed the numbers have gone up a lot since I started posting). Then if you factor in that most people couldn't care less about politics I think I have every right to be well pleased with myself.
The lefties are just very annoyed that I've turned the forum from hard left to right wing. They can't believe it and are struggling desperately to justify themselves.
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Ah yes of course, thanks BB, I had forgotten the correlation between the poll that defines how events in the immediate future will be decided for the benefit of us all, one that people have fought and died to participate in and uphold, and next week's general election.
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Mick I love the fact that you actually think the crap that you write on this forum has actually persuaded people to vote for UKIP rather than Labour! Nothing to do with the failed coalition government that have looked after the rich and taken from the poor!
The people that are and will be voting for UKIP do not understand what this party is and what this party truly stand for other than the rubbish that Farage has been feeding the British press with over the past few years. I don't even think half of the UKIP politicians even quite understand, looking at the majority of the ones I have seen on TV I would be surprised if they even have as many brain cells as you Mick put together. I am sure they do not know that Farage was a dirty scheming money making Banker who's beliefs are far worse than the Tory party.
I am not a fan of Ed by any stretch of the imagination but I would rather vote for a weak Labour party than see the dispicable Tories back in power again!
Just take a look at this before you make your generalisations!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFCfEdxd4Sc&feature=share
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Right. I've decided to bring my prediction forward so as to stop any nonsense that it wasn't totally my own work.
Here it is.
Tories 289
Labour 279
LibDems 29
SNP 50
UKIP 2
Greens 1
This will mean a minority Labour government.
Get in.
Quoted and saved to avoid a back track ;)
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Hang on. I thought laddo was predicting a Tory majority last week. Have I missed some earth-shattering political event that has shaved 15% off the Tories' projected seats?
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My hunch is it won't be as tight as everyone thinks, one of the major parties will perform better than expected. Which one it will be though? No idea.
I think Tories could benefit from the 'shy Tory' effect, but then on the day how many will think they fancy the change back to Labour? Could go either way really.
It's gonna be fun!
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Hang on. I thought laddo was predicting a Tory majority last week. Have I missed some earth-shattering political event that has shaved 15% off the Tories' projected seats?
Don't worry, he'll soon be back on here waffling about how he actually wants a minority Labour government and that therefore he's still right, as if what he's predicted and what he wants are both the same thing. ;)
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On a local level for Thorne and Moorends council I could vote for up to 9 people out of about 15, I had no idea who about half of them were despite being born and bred DN8 - How can you vote for people you dont know?
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After careful study of runners and riders this Is predicted outcome.
CON 282
LAB 275
LIB 18
UKIP 1
Green 1
SNP 52
PlaidC 3
Minor 0
N.Ire 18
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My hunch is it won't be as tight as everyone thinks, one of the major parties will perform better than expected. Which one it will be though? No idea.
I think Tories could benefit from the 'shy Tory' effect, but then on the day how many will think they fancy the change back to Labour? Could go either way really.
It's gonna be fun!
I've kept expecting the polls to move one way or the other but apart from the odd percentage point here and there they haven't. One thing I did expect was a drift of UKIP voters back to the main parties, especially the Tories, but their percentage has held up pretty well. Even so, they'll do well to end the night with more than 3 seats.
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After careful study of runners and riders this Is predicted outcome.
CON 282
LAB 275
LIB 18
UKIP 1
Green 1
SNP 52
PlaidC 3
Minor 0
N.Ire 18
Very similar from me:
Con 283
Lab 271
LD 31
SNP 49
UKIP 3
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With the polls so close, it's a fool who put's hos balls on the line on the final result.
But since I'm a fool, I'll go for
CON 275
LAB 280
LIB 28
UKIP 2
Green 1
SNP 42
PlaidC 3
Minor 1
N.Ire 18
I'm working on the gut instinct (from the Independence referendum) that the SNP support is a bit over-estimated in the polls, because they are so aggressive in their pitch that waverers don't want to admit being against them, but may vote against them in the polling booth.
I also think that the LDs will survive to a greater extent than they deserve from tactical voting. Although I'll be out ferrying voters to the polling booths in Sheffield Hallam to try to get rid of Clegg.
Anyone's guess really. The final result could be anything from Con 260-300 and Lab 250-290.
One thing's for sure. It won't be the Tory majority that d**khead was predicting last week.
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With the polls so close, it's a fool who put's hos balls on the line on the final result.
But since I'm a fool, I'll go for
CON 275
LAB 280
LIB 28
UKIP 2
Green 1
SNP 42
PlaidC 3
Minor 1
N.Ire 18
I'm working on the gut instinct (from the Independence referendum) that the SNP support is a bit over-estimated in the polls, because they are so aggressive in their pitch that waverers don't want to admit being against them, but may vote against them in the polling booth.
I also think that the LDs will survive to a greater extent than they deserve from tactical voting. Although I'll be out ferrying voters to the polling booths in Sheffield Hallam to try to get rid of Clegg.
Anyone's guess really. The final result could be anything from Con 260-300 and Lab 250-290.
One thing's for sure. It won't be the Tory majority that d**khead was predicting last week.
Right here's mine and BTW I will also be ferrying both L/Dems and Tories in Sheff. Hallam....stay at home you're wasting your time Billy ! Overturning such a huge majority would be a miracle . A 3rd. placed Labour overturning a 15,000 majority. Jeez they (
Labour ) would deserve power if they could do that !
Conservative. 283
Labour............ 275
L/Dems.......... 33
UKIP............... 2
Greens............ 1
Galloway......... 1
Plaid C ............ 4
N.Ireland.......... 18
& SNP The rest (33). I too think they have been over-hyped .
There is going to be tactical voting the like we have never seen before IMO.
It is NOW time for some form of PR surely ?
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DC just gone a shade of odds on to be PM after the election.
Get in.
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DC just gone a shade of odds on to be PM after the election.
Get in.
Do you understand how bookies set their odds?
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Having been one yes.
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Gaz.
Over the past month, the polls haven't changed by so much as a quarter of one per-cent. Lab and Con are absolutely level pegging.
Yet the Tories are 1/5 to have the largest number of seats. And they are only 10-12/1 against having an overall majority (Lab 33-80/1).
Whatever is influencing the bookies' odds, it sure ain't any basic facts out there
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Gaz.
Over the past month, the polls haven't changed by so much as a quarter of one per-cent. Lab and Con are absolutely level pegging.
Yet the Tories are 1/5 to have the largest number of seats. And they are only 10-12/1 against having an overall majority (Lab 33-80/1).
Whatever is influencing the bookies' odds, it sure ain't any basic facts out there
You've changed your tune. Wasn't long ago you were quoting the bookies when it suited your point of view. Typical of you.
Just be grateful I let you off with that bet about who would win when the odds were massively in your favour.
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Gaz.
Over the past month, the polls haven't changed by so much as a quarter of one per-cent. Lab and Con are absolutely level pegging.
Yet the Tories are 1/5 to have the largest number of seats. And they are only 10-12/1 against having an overall majority (Lab 33-80/1).
Whatever is influencing the bookies' odds, it sure ain't any basic facts out there
I'm guessing a lot of people believe in shy Tories. I expect the Tory and Lib DEm votes to be a little higher than expected. Its all about the marginals though and the potential for a party with less votes overall winning is very real .
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Right. As electioneering has now stopped I think it's time to call the result of the poll.
Tories/UKIP 30
Labour 28
So by an overwhelming majority of two, I now officially declare this forum to be right wing.
For the purposes of this result I've decided to ignore the Greens and the LibDems and to just stick to the three main parties in the country. The Greens are ignored because they cannot be classed as left wing as they are so out of touch with reality there needs to be a new classification for them all on their own. The LibDems have also been ignored because it's hard to know what they stand for these days. They could be either right wing or left wing depending on which of the two main parties they decide to do a deal with.
Get in.
(Please note any further votes will now be ignored. You've had your chance).
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BFYP
The Shy Tory issue was a BIG effect in 1992. That became folklore. Since then polling companies have radically changed their approaches and there's little evidence of it these days.
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Gaz.
Over the past month, the polls haven't changed by so much as a quarter of one per-cent. Lab and Con are absolutely level pegging.
Yet the Tories are 1/5 to have the largest number of seats. And they are only 10-12/1 against having an overall majority (Lab 33-80/1).
Whatever is influencing the bookies' odds, it sure ain't any basic facts out there
The polls are worthless really this time around. The knowledge people need to get the edge is inside info to who is prepared to work with who in the eventuality of a hung parliament. Betfair will know who the PM will be before the rest of us trust me.
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BFYP
The Shy Tory issue was a BIG effect in 1992. That became folklore. Since then polling companies have radically changed their approaches and there's little evidence of it these days.
BST. Are you saying that the methodologies don't take account of the situation in Scotland? Above you say that you think the polls have over-estimated the SNP vote because of their aggressive campaigning style. Like you, I think that was probably the case in the Referendum. Wouldn't the pollsters have found a way of teasing out the intentions of "shy non-Nats?"
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BFYP
The Shy Tory issue was a BIG effect in 1992. That became folklore. Since then polling companies have radically changed their approaches and there's little evidence of it these days.
I disagree but then I would wouldn't I?
I'm with BFYP the Tories and the L/Dems will be less inclined to share their voting intentions.
The L/Dem vote will hold up in their core areas and the UKIP vote will collapse once it dawns on these knobs that they are supporting sweet fa with little or no result.
Disaffected "supposed" UKIP supporters will return to their Tory roots and not risk a Labour Government.... Jeez that's an horrific thought !!
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Right. As electioneering has now stopped I think it's time to call the result of the poll.
Tories/UKIP 30
Labour 28
So by an overwhelming majority of two, I now officially declare this forum to be right wing.
For the purposes of this result I've decided to ignore the Greens and the LibDems and to just stick to the three main parties in the country. The Greens are ignored because they cannot be classed as left wing as they are so out of touch with reality there needs to be a new classification for them all on their own. The LibDems have also been ignored because it's hard to know what they stand for these days. They could be either right wing or left wing depending on which of the two main parties they decide to do a deal with.
Get in.
(Please note any further votes will now be ignored. You've had your chance).
Polling closes at 10pm, not when you decide you like the result.
I wonder if Filo can list who's voted. I'm sure the usernames that have would be interesting to study...
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I thought it was a secret ballot! :s
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You're not suggesting our very own multiple personalities disorder sufferer might have tried to swing the vote in his/their favour?
That wouldn't be very democratic, would it?
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The Tories are as right wing as Labour are left wing. That is, not very. Those distinctions don't mean diddly squat. That mad-mick has based his act on these distinctions is quite adorable. But 30 years in the past.
I'm not really bothered what will happen today. Hope the Greens get more votes than they did last time and hope there is a serious discussion about our antiquated voting system.
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You're not suggesting our very own multiple personalities disorder sufferer might have tried to swing the vote in his/their favour?
That wouldn't be very democratic, would it?
I'm quite happy for the mods to check for any voting irregularities. They won't find any.
I am IC1967 and I am one of a kind.
You lefties just need to get used to being in the minority from now on.
Get in.
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The Tories are as right wing as Labour are left wing. That is, not very. Those distinctions don't mean diddly squat. That mad-mick has based his act on these distinctions is quite adorable. But 30 years in the past.
I'm not really bothered what will happen today. Hope the Greens get more votes than they did last time and hope there is a serious discussion about our antiquated voting system.
Whatever the outcome, I reckon that the major winners of this election will be a greater diversity of voting (as in, more people not *just* voting red or blue), and a genuine hunger for proportional representation. I will laugh my tits off if the Tories fail to govern after winning the largest share of the vote. Given that they were against it (which led to the Lib Dems vetoing the boundary changes which almost certainly would have ensured an outright victory for the Bullingdon Boys), it'd serve 'em right.
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You're not suggesting our very own multiple personalities disorder sufferer might have tried to swing the vote in his/their favour?
That wouldn't be very democratic, would it?
It would be interesting to see how many of those who voted are 'regular' forum users, that's all...
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I thought it was a secret ballot! :s
I'm not asking to know how anybody voted!
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BFYP
The Shy Tory issue was a BIG effect in 1992. That became folklore. Since then polling companies have radically changed their approaches and there's little evidence of it these days.
BST. Are you saying that the methodologies don't take account of the situation in Scotland? Above you say that you think the polls have over-estimated the SNP vote because of their aggressive campaigning style. Like you, I think that was probably the case in the Referendum. Wouldn't the pollsters have found a way of teasing out the intentions of "shy non-Nats?"
TRB
It's about timescales. The pollsters had years to get to the bottom of the "Shy Tory" effect of 1992 (and it was already apparent, though not to the same extent in 1987).
The rise of the SNP has caught everyone by surprise. There'll be no way of calibrating approaches until after we have some election results in to see how the methods are working.
Similarly with UKIP. There is a consistent theme that UKIP get higher poll figures in on-line polls compared to telephone polls. No polling company is actively allowing for a Shy-Kipper effect in their figures, but if that is genuinely IS a Shy-Kipper effect, then the on-line pollsters will have significantly underestimated the UKIP vote. Which COULD end up affect a lot of marginal seats. UKIP are still unlikely to get more than 3-4 seats themselves, but they could well end up tipping the balance in a lot of other seats.
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You're not suggesting our very own multiple personalities disorder sufferer might have tried to swing the vote in his/their favour?
That wouldn't be very democratic, would it?
It would be interesting to see how many of those who voted are 'regular' forum users, that's all...
Well I voted! ...........
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Right. As electioneering has now stopped I think it's time to call the result of the poll.
Tories/UKIP 30
Labour 28
So by an overwhelming majority of two, I now officially declare this forum to be right wing.
For the purposes of this result I've decided to ignore the Greens and the LibDems and to just stick to the three main parties in the country. The Greens are ignored because they cannot be classed as left wing as they are so out of touch with reality there needs to be a new classification for them all on their own. The LibDems have also been ignored because it's hard to know what they stand for these days. They could be either right wing or left wing depending on which of the two main parties they decide to do a deal with.
Get in.
(Please note any further votes will now be ignored. You've had your chance).
Polling closes at 10pm, not when you decide you like the result.
I wonder if Filo can list who's voted. I'm sure the usernames that have would be interesting to study...
Boom!!! Roasted!!!
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Right. As electioneering has now stopped I think it's time to call the result of the poll.
Tories/UKIP 30
Labour 28
So by an overwhelming majority of two, I now officially declare this forum to be right wing.
For the purposes of this result I've decided to ignore the Greens and the LibDems and to just stick to the three main parties in the country. The Greens are ignored because they cannot be classed as left wing as they are so out of touch with reality there needs to be a new classification for them all on their own. The LibDems have also been ignored because it's hard to know what they stand for these days. They could be either right wing or left wing depending on which of the two main parties they decide to do a deal with.
Get in.
(Please note any further votes will now be ignored. You've had your chance).
Polling closes at 10pm, not when you decide you like the result.
I wonder if Filo can list who's voted. I'm sure the usernames that have would be interesting to study...
I hear what you say. As the voice of reason I'm prepared to compromise. Any votes cast before 8.15pm today will be counted. Any votes cast after this time will be invalid. I can't be fairer than that.
For your information I voted UKIP. If others feel they want forum members to know their allegiance then please feel free to declare your vote and your reasons why (if you want to).
Even though I've allowed extra time for you lefties to get your act together I still declare the forum is now officially right wing by a majority of one (30 to 29).
Get in.
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Well put it like this, if I lived in Donny my X would have been for Ed. and my family all would have too.. As it is Jo Rust got our vote.. (she is hoping to be working for Ed...... ;) )
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I'll just leave this here... :whistle:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tml1jteOUR0
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I didn't vote for two reasons:
a) the poll is invalid as it does not contain a full list of all the parties standing in the election - including all the left-wing choices
b) I refuse on principle to participate in anything madmick has organised
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And this... :pinch:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FK-oWA7Oj8
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Jo Rust
I bet she never sleeps. ;)
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Labour lot seem more buoyant so far, it's gonna be a fun night.
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If that exit poll is right on BBC cons have annihilated labour
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Surely won't happen can't see Tories getting that.
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It doesn't square with the polls throughout the campaign.
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I'm not so sure labour should have distanced themselves earlier from the snp
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It doesn't square with the polls throughout the campaign.
Exactly. The Tory campaign has been awful too in my view. Disaster for ed if it happens. I can't see it .
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Personally I think they have underestimated the numbers of Lib Dem Mps that will still be standing after the election. Also they may have overestimated the SNP. I'll be interested to look again when a few marginals and Scottish seats come in.
Mind you, I'd love to see Paddy Pantsdown eating his hat!
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It just shows how bad Ed is he can't rally his troops to beat the worst government in recent times.
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Everyone seems to be questioning the exit polls. I would love to know their methodology but cant be arsed to look it up.
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Well, if that's the case then A LOT of people have voted for Cameron (he's a very nice man), kicked the Lib Dems (weirdly, because they sided with the Tories who A LOT of people have voted for, it seems) and had no faith in Miliband/continue to blame Labour for the recession...
There's nowt as queer as folk.
I said today that two leaders will be out of a job in the morning (or soon after). One of the them was Clegg and I can't see Ed staying on much longer now...
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Cameron is a polished and better speaking Miliband. Incredible how fear rules this country (england) and how conservative people are. Great for the greens if they can get another seat, though.
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The You Gov exit poll for The Sun gives 284 Con, 263 Lab, 31 LD, 48 SNP.
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Okay, so a number of polls are giving different results (though broadly similar) - it's going to be a long night...
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YouGov don't do an exit poll. It's just an online poll done during Election Day.
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Disaster for Labour. Tories have battered them senseless.
When are Labour going to learn that a left wing agenda is never going to go down well with the English electorate.
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To be fair you seem to have been proved right
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To be fair you seem to have been proved right
I think so. I think I was the only one despite overwhelming odds predicting a Tory majority. I could be right or worst case not far off.
Silly Billy has got a lot of humble pie to eat predicting a Labour win.
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When are Labour going to learn that a left wing agenda is never going to go down well with the English electorate.
Apart from all those that voted Labour in the North of England and London you mean?
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When are Labour going to learn that a left wing agenda is never going to go down well with the English electorate.
Apart from all those that voted Labour in the North of England and London you mean?
It isn't enough though is it?
Looks like the shy Tory effect was true again. Amazing how their vote has gone given a real tough parliament. Might even end up with a majority, if you had money on that lend me a tenner as so unexpected. 64 seats to go for Tories and Balls could go yet
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It is actually as I predicted, the Lib Dem seats would be the deciding factor. If you look at the percentage of votes it hasn't changed much from last time, Labour up slightly more than Tory, it is the Lib Dem seats that have gone. Would the people who voted Lib Dem last time to keep the Tories out - still vote for them when they put the Tories in? It would appear not.
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Not forgetting the 40 seat Labour has lost in Scotland
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One of the scary things is the 3.3 million that have voted for UKIP!
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I think Sturgeon's strong campaign intimating that they would hold Labour to ransom had a massive effect in England, voters went to the Tories to ensure that Scotland didn't control Westminster, personally I hope Scotland are made to pay for this, they got the Government they didn't want, but they got what they deserved through their stupidness!
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Well, that's a tad disappointing.
Congratulations to the Tories. They've exceeded all polling expectations and I'm genuinely shocked by the result.
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Filo
I think you're bang on the money there.
Fair play to the SNP. They have got PRECISELY the result they wanted. Total domination of Scotland with an overall Tory Govt. That is perfect for them. There'll be a referendum within 4 years and I suspect that will be the end of the UK this time.
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Not forgetting the 40 seat Labour has lost in Scotland
If the Lib Dem vote had held up, then Labour + SNP + Lib Dem would have stopped at Tory majority.
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Not forgetting the 40 seat Labour has lost in Scotland
If the Lib Dem vote had held up, then Labour + SNP + Lib Dem would have stopped at Tory majority.
The Lib Dems were always going to be wiped out from the day they jumped into bed with the Tories, I just wish Clegg would have got defeated
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I dont know Billy, the Scots didnt want to be independent a few months ago. What they want is a party who represent their interests. However another 3-4 years of Tory government could certainly see them off.
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Balls goes - it's almost the perfect night for Tories!
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Balls out for Labour
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Well done done IC1967 no betting slip needed
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-32655131
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It is actually as I predicted, the Lib Dem seats would be the deciding factor. If you look at the percentage of votes it hasn't changed much from last time, Labour up slightly more than Tory, it is the Lib Dem seats that have gone. Would the people who voted Lib Dem last time to keep the Tories out - still vote for them when they put the Tories in? It would appear not.
Thing is they didnt vote Labour either . Strangely enough they voted for UKIP & Greens where the Tories were weak and solidly Tory where the Tories were the 2nd party.
Bizarre knee-jerk reactions but if this Government messes it up ; they will go Lib/Dem en masse again . By 2020 UKIP will be a busted flush on their narrow agenda.
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Re. UKIP. If Cameron does go ahead with the promised EU referendum then that issue will be settled one way or another for some time.
That might still leave the issue of immigration, of course, but on that front they would be competing with other right wing parties and would therefore have lost their distinctness.
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Re. UKIP. If Cameron does go ahead with the promised EU referendum then that issue will be settled one way or another for some time.
That might still leave the issue of immigration, of course, but on that front they would be competing with other right wing parties and would therefore have lost their distinctness.
Correct RB and therefore the "protest" vote will come back to the Lib/Dems as you can be sure they will be working doubly hard at local level to regain those constituencies in the South - West and London especially. It will take time but it will happen.
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TRB
He'll go ahead with the referendum. He's toast if he doesn't.
Whether that settles the matter is a moot point. By far the most likely outcome is a series of small concessions and a IN vote. He simply won't get major concessions on this timescale, and (assuming the economy continues its limping improvement) people's bile against the EU will diminish. (Check the historical poll figures. Economy-down, EU antipathy-up and vice versa for 40 years.)
But do you think that an outcome like that would placate the 60-100 rabidly anti-EU MPs on the right of the Tory party? Do you think they'd consider that to have been a fair choice?
If Labour has any hope at all for 2020 (and I'm struggling to see much after that shattering defeat) it is that the Tory right is now empowered. It couldn't hurt Cameron in Parliament last time round becaus he had 57 LDs to support him. This time it can because Cameron has no protection on his left flank. There's a lot of right wing Tory MPs who viscerally loathe Cameron's politics. And given that he won't lead the Tories into the next Election, there will be some ruthless fighting for the philosophical heart of the party. Mainly over Europe.
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Good post Billy and that's how I see it. In fighting could cause fractures in the Tory party from the far Right. These will start to show a couple of years into this Parliament whether that will make Labour and Lib/Democrats more electable next time round is anyone's guess.....forget UKIP. The fractured opposition to the Tories did not help. The rise of UKIP helped to cause this mess. They and their agenda will simply melt away come the next election.