Viking Supporters Co-operative
Viking Chat => Viking Chat => Topic started by: les@donr on February 17, 2018, 03:56:43 pm
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Target for us to guarantee L1 football next season. Get 50 asap, then prepare for next season.
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In the 36 seasons since the 3 points per win, the fourth from bottom club in this Division has had 50 or more points on 15 occasions. So 50 points has given on average about a 58% chance of survival.
54 points has been relegated once, 53 on 2 occasions, 52 on 2 occasions and 51 on 3 occasions.
So 52 points has given about an 86% chance of survival and 53 about 92% and 54 about 97%
I won't sleep easy until we have 54, but then I'm a pessimist about these sorts of things.
Edit: The lowest number of points for a 5th from bottom place was 45 in 1999-00.
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Three more wins should do it for me, if we pick up an 'average' set of results to the end of the season (i.e. equal wins, losses and draws from now) we'll do it comfortably.
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average a point per game and we finish on 54..
Surely we can do better?
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50 should be our minimum target for safety.
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Yes, three more wins should be good enough but can we get them?
Under Ferguson we haven’t finished a season well yet so hopefully that will change.
Fifty points as a minimum requirement should be achievable, 54 sounds so much more right now given our one win in a dozen or so games since the turn of the year.
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I expect us to go out and try to get as many points as possible to the end of the season, not just set a points target where we think we would be safe.
Any capitulation resembling the end to the last two seasons and I would expect the board to take appropriate action, and heads on the management side to roll.
I hope that scenario does not raise its ugly head, but mid table respectability, and forward thinking for next season should be the ambition for the rest of this season.
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:that:
My opinion is always to try and take the most amount of points we can from the next game. Then worry about the next one after that.
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I think it goes without the need to say it that the team will be trying to get as many points as possible up to the end of the season.
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Out of the 11 games left only 4 are against teams above us. One of those is Southend who are 1 place above & another is against Gillingham who I think are 3 places above. The other 2 are Wigan & Blackburn. So assuming we will lose against those 2 we have 9 games against teams who are below or very close to us. If we don't get 12 points from those 9 games quite frankly we don't deserve to stay up!!
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What about Bradford
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Even two years ago when we got relegated we got 9 points from the remaining 11 games
So even if we only match that we will comfortably stay up
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Under Penney, his stock response was "50 points first" whether that was in division 3 or league 1 - it served him pretty well i would say.
Similarly Sheff Utd this season under Wilder.
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The algorithms are saying we will finish on 56/57 points.
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If only we can go from draws to win/lose we'll be fine.
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If only we can go from draws to win/lose we'll be fine.
like sheff united
played 34 won 17 drawn 4 lost 13 49 40 GD +9 55 points
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Well it looks as though Rochdale haven’t given up hope of staying up.
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They're still further behind us than their games in hand will help them though.
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They are 13 points behind us. Even including tonight’s win, you have to go back to before Halloween to find the time it’s taken them to get their last 13 points.
Not saying they can’t turn their form round, but if they catch us, we’ll very much deserve to go down. I’ll be amazed if they finish within 10 points of us.
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They're still further behind us than their games in hand will help them though.
I wasn’t including us in my post.
I just said that they haven’t given up hope of avoiding the drop.
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The algorithms are saying we will finish on 56/57 points.
The algorithms are saying we will finish on 56/57 points.
Bloody algorithms coming over here, doing our maths. Get back to Algorithia!
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We have eleven games to go.. plenty of oppprtunities to get enough points of our own without looking at other teams (yet)..
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The algorithms are saying we will finish on 56/57 points.
The algorithms are saying we will finish on 56/57 points.
Bloody algorithms coming over here, doing our maths. Get back to Algorithia!
Haha Hard Brexit!!
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Rochdale STILL not given up hope yet.
1-0 at Rotherham is a good win for them.
Four games in hand over Northampton and only seven points behind them.
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As long as it doesn’t drag us into I hope Rochdale pull it off
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It is perhaps worth gently reminding ourselves that after today, we have won one game in the last twelve.
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We have yes, but we've not lost many either. If we carry on drawing most weeks with the occasional win we will be safe comfortably
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If we draw every game between now and the end of the season it will probably be enough to keep us up.
Happy with the result today on a dreadful pitch. We do seem more resilient than we did earlier in the season.
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CBCB
Yeah, it’s always good to be reminded of that.
Is it also perhaps worth gently reminding you that, after we found our feet in September, we have picked up points at top-half of the table rate for nearly 2/3rds of a season?
Or that we’ve lost only 5 league games out of 21 since the clocks went back despite those games including away matches against 6 of the top 8 and despite long term injuries having robbed us of for much of that time, up to half a first XI in
McCullough
Kiwomya
Butler
Baudry
Andrew
plus assorted others?
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Decent bit of perspective there BST.
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It is perhaps worth gently reminding ourselves that after today, we have won one game in the last twelve.
CBCB
Yeah, it’s always good to be reminded of that.
Is it also perhaps worth gently reminding you that, after we found our feet in September, we have picked up points at top-half of the table rate for nearly 2/3rds of a season?
Or that we’ve lost only 5 league games outbif 21 since the clocks went back despite those games including away matches against 6 of the top 8 and despite long term injuries having robbed us of for much of that time, up to half a first XI in
McCullough
Kiwomya
Butler
Baudry
Andrew
plus assorted others?
Both posts very relevant and true.
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Also since the turn of the year we have ten points out of eleven league games - less than a point a game, which is relegation form.
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Grand
So we’ve had three periods this season.
First 8 games. Finding our feet. Poor form. 6 points. Relegation form.
Next 17 games. Hitting our stride. Fixtures on balance a bit easier than average. 27 points. Play-off form.
Last 11 games. Very tough run of matches. (8/11 against sides in the top half 5/11 games away matches against sides in the top half). String of disruptive injuries. Poor return. 10 points. Relegation form.
Thing is, that all adds up to 43 points from 36 games which is mid-table form. Teams go through spells of good and bad form over a season.
Ten years ago this very week we were just finishing a run of 40 points from 16 games and about to dive into a season-ending collapse of 12 points from the final 10 games. That final ten games didn’t make the 07/08 squad crap or O’Driscoll a bad manager. But if you only focussed on that spell and the distinctly average first 20 games of the season, whilst ignoring the purple patch in the middle, you could convince yourself that he was shite.
Given that the injury crisis seems to be settling and that we have a relatively less tough than average run to the end of the season, I expect us to finish 13th or 14th and we’ll wonder what all the fuss was about.
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I don't think we will go down this season but equally it is a little optimistic to think we will finish 13th or 14th this season.
If you look at the last five seasons in League One, the lowest points total to finish 14th was 57 points (when Crawley finished 14 in 2013/14).
To even match that lowest total and finish 14th, we would have to get another 14 points from the remaining 10 games. That looks somewhat ambitious, although not impossible.
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Fair point. But then the joint 14th best sides in the division at the moment (Oxford & Blackpool) are currently on target for 55.2 points, taking their season average. We’re the 16th best and we’re on target for 54.9.
On paper we have a significantly easier run in than either of those sides.
Plus, I’m an optimist. It gets me through the day.
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I don't think we will go down this season but equally it is a little optimistic to think we will finish 13th or 14th this season.
If you look at the last five seasons in League One, the lowest points total to finish 14th was 57 points (when Crawley finished 14 in 2013/14).
To even match that lowest total and finish 14th, we would have to get another 14 points from the remaining 10 games. That looks somewhat ambitious, although not impossible.
We're one point off 14th with a game in hand so not really sure that to think we may finish there is a little optimistic
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Comrade. The season doesn’t finish for two months yet.
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My concern is we are not pulling away from the relegation zone at one given time it ended up being 7 points and now it's 5. Say we draw our next game and others win we could then trickle down for even 2 or 3 points away I think we just need to get a run of game together where we win a few and pull a bit of distance away from the danger zone.
Is there any great deal of difference or incentive in monetary terms to finish for example 12th from where we are now?
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Fair point. But then the joint 14th best sides in the division at the moment (Oxford & Blackpool) are currently on target for 55.2 points, taking their season average. We’re the 16th best and we’re on target for 54.9.
On paper we have a significantly easier run in than either of those sides.
Plus, I’m an optimist. It gets me through the day.
Equally fair points. However, even the 55 points would mean we have to accrue points faster than we have done over the last 11 league games and frankly, we have to win a few games - something we have done only once over the last 12 games.
We are digging in any getting good draws but we are still averaging less than a point a game at the most crucial time of the season.
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CBCB
Then we should count ourselves lucky that we don’t have a large number of top 10 sides to play and that it looks like our injury crisis is passing. Since those two things are the dominating issues relating to our recent form. And we should also think ourselves lucky that none of the other sides around us are in particularly scintillating form.
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Three of our last four defeats have been to teams outside the top 10 though - in fact we have done half decent on this run against the better placed sides.
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Comrade. The season doesn’t finish for two months yet.
Correct
It's not optimistic though is it.
We've been where we are now all season
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Three of our last four defeats have been to teams outside the top 10 though - in fact we have done half decent on this run against the better placed sides.
Not quite true. Oxford were 8th when we lost to them.
IMHO I think this season opponents' current form may well be more important for us than their league position. We can be glad we don't have to play Rochdale again, and our next opponents Bradford are top ten but falling like a stone. We are probably more likely to beat Oxford than Bury at the momemt.
Everyone is understandably mesmerised by our disastrous run 2 seasons ago. It is worth noting how monstrously bad it was - in the league we went 16 without a win, and only 4 draws in that time. At one point we went through a sequence of 11 defeats and one draw in twelve games.
Our 'bad run' at the moment consists of 1 win, 7 draws and 3 defeats in 11 matches. 7 of those 11 have been away, 5 against top sides and one (Southend) against a side with a good home record. Our only home defeat was when we had only one centre back and he went off injured after 20 minutes (when we were actually leading). Our only other home matches have been the win against Fleetwood, the draw against in form Plymouth when the referee was a tad unhelpful in a Mr Russell kind of way, and an admittedly bad performance against Charlton when we were fortunate to get a point.
This is very very different from 2 years ago. This team is much better, has much better spirit, and with simply a fair rub of the green with referees and injuries in the last 10 games we should have no problems in doing more than survive.
I think recent previous seasons' experiences have made us overly fearful. A win against Bradford would make everything seem a bit different.
Edit: Especially if Marquis can avoid a booking.
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Dutch. The last four defeats do not include Oxford. I know one of these was in’t cup but I am talking about the current run we are on, since turn of year.
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Dutch. The last four defeats do not include Oxford. I know one of these was in’t cup but I am talking about the current run we are on, since turn of year.
OK CBCB. I was counting league matches only. However our cup defeat to in form Rochdale lends extra weight to my point about playing in-form sides being more significant than highly placed ones. It is still (for now) miles away from the situation two years ago.
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Am certainly with you on that Dutch. I do not think we will go down this season.
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Am certainly with you on that Dutch. I do not think we will go down this season.
By the way, with a monniker like yours I should have known you would know all about away matches at Oxford......... ;)
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Excellent post that Dutch, a very sensible look at our recent fortunes.
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(https://experimental361.files.wordpress.com/2018/03/l1-final-102.png)
Starts with yesterdays game. We've got one of the easiest run ins left.
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Us and Oldham look to have a good run in hope it pans out that way it a couple of wins and a few defeats for the bottom 4 will make us safe
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Statistics and form mean nothing. The only predictable thing about the remaining results for ourselves and the rest of the league is their unpredictability. We are down until results tell us otherwise.
We have managed to snatch disaster from the Jaws of safety all too often with the exception of Brentford. I don't know how DF and the players are prepared for this run-in, but I hope it's a different approach to what's been applied before.
Do we have any evidence to suggest this crop of players are mentally tough enough and resilient? Absolutely not.
We are going to need to call upon that other ingredient. Luck.
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See How Many Points Comp just started - please enter before Bradford Game
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Starting to look as though Rochdale might not be getting out of the mire.
A 2-0 loss tonight leaves them six points adrift of fifth bottom but they do still have a game in hand.
We slip back to six points clear of the bottom four after Northampton’s draw with the Shrews but we have a game in hand over them.
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seven teams have to finish the season better than us, for us to go down.. Some a little better, some a lot better..
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seven teams have to finish the season better than us, for us to go down.. Some a little better, some a lot better..
Yes mate I understand that.
The thing is that three years ago I came away from that 2-1 win at Leeds thinking we were safe.
This is the Rovers we are talking about and we have recent history of not finishing seasons well.
Hopefully this season we can buck the trend.
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Starting to look as though Rochdale might not be getting out of the mire.
A 2-0 loss tonight leaves them six points adrift of fifth bottom but they do still have a game in hand.
We slip back to six points clear of the bottom four after Northampton’s draw with the Shrews but we have a game in hand over them.
On New Years Day we were 7 points clear and had played a match more than 4th bottom.
It’s generally held that we haven’t been in form in 2018 but we have pulled slightly away from the relegation zone.
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Starting to look as though Rochdale might not be getting out of the mire.
A 2-0 loss tonight leaves them six points adrift of fifth bottom but they do still have a game in hand.
We slip back to six points clear of the bottom four after Northampton’s draw with the Shrews but we have a game in hand over them.
On New Years Day we were 7 points clear and had played a match more than 4th bottom.
It’s generally held that we haven’t been in form in 2018 but we have pulled slightly away from the relegation zone.
To be fair, we have only lost three of our last sixteen league games.
That in itself is pretty good.
We just haven’t won enough.
Draws have been the main results.
In reality though BST, if we were seven points clear of the bottom four on NY day then we have slipped a point closer today.
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Hound.
No, that’s not a sensible way to look at it. We’d played a game more than the 4th bottom then. Now we have a game in hand. We’re clearly in a better position now than we were then.
Plus, back then the 4th bottom side had 21 games left to catch up 7 points in us. Now the 4th bottom has 8 games left to catch up 6 points.
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If we assume 50 pts is the target, we need 0.44 pts per game to reach that target, the teams below us need the followin
Blackpool 0.44 ppg
Oxford. 0.50 ppg
Walsall. 0.66 ppg
Fleetwood 0.88 ppg
Wimbledon 0.88 ppg
Oldham. 1.00 ppg
Northampton 1.25 ppg
Mk Dons. 1.33 ppg
Rochdale. 1.45 ppg
Bury. 2.22 ppg
I think looking at that, we're almost safe now
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Filo
I said a while ago that a team could get 46 points and stay up this season. Not sure I totally believe that now but I still think 50 will not be needed.
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seven teams have to finish the season better than us, for us to go down.. Some a little better, some a lot better..
Yes mate I understand that.
The thing is that three years ago I came away from that 2-1 win at Leeds thinking we were safe.
This is the Rovers we are talking about and we have recent history of not finishing seasons well.
Hopefully this season we can buck the trend.
We don't have to finish the season well, not particularly.. 2 wins from 9 should be plenty - but I would think we may get 3 or 4 anyway..
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I think it's fair to say our goal difference is worth another point on most of the teams below us
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Hound.
No, that’s not a sensible way to look at it. We’d played a game more than the 4th bottom then. Now we have a game in hand. We’re clearly in a better position now than we were then.
Plus, back then the 4th bottom side had 21 games left to catch up 7 points in us. Now the 4th bottom has 8 games left to catch up 6 points.
That is a fair point about the number of games remaining.
However, even though I believe we should be in a safe enough position now to stay up I will feel much better if we can win two more matches.
As I said earlier, after the Leeds match three years ago everyone thought we had done enough.
The collapses of the last two seasons also leave people feeling insecure, we have recent bad history at the end of the season.
To repeat though, I think we will stay up now.
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As we've seen with our team, it doesn't take much for our wheels to fall off. Only as recently as Rotherham it shows the inconceivable can happen.
There's no room for complacency at least until we're mathematically safe. If and when that happens, the players need to be driven to keep performing until the last kick of the final game.
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A bit like they did on Monday night then?
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Without doubt. There has to be a shift in mentality for this squad to succeed going forward. Accepting some of our squad are inexperienced, they need to show they've learnt the hard way and develop a ruthless never say die attitude.
Other than Marquis, Butler and perhaps Copps, it's harder to see that will to win in the rest of the squad. That's why DF can't afford to let up and put to bed recent seasons poor finishes to a season.
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We need a positive end to the season to carry some momentum into next season. I feel happy that we'll stay up but we need to be pushing for a top half or top ten finish. Good for fans, good for the team and a statement of what next season may hold for any prospective signings
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Without doubt. There has to be a shift in mentality for this squad to succeed going forward. Accepting some of our squad are inexperienced, they need to show they've learnt the hard way and develop a ruthless never say die attitude.
Other than Marquis, Butler and perhaps Copps, it's harder to see that will to win in the rest of the squad. That's why DF can't afford to let up and put to bed recent seasons poor finishes to a season.
id say young alfie beeston has that in spades!!!!, he's learning the way to play the game off John M very quickly.....
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Hound.
No, that’s not a sensible way to look at it. We’d played a game more than the 4th bottom then. Now we have a game in hand. We’re clearly in a better position now than we were then.
Plus, back then the 4th bottom side had 21 games left to catch up 7 points in us. Now the 4th bottom has 8 games left to catch up 6 points.
[/q.
That is a fair point about the number of games remaining.
However, even though I believe we should be in a safe enough position now to stay up I will feel much better if we can win two more matches.
As I said earlier, after the Leeds match three years ago everyone thought we had done enough.
The collapses of the last two seasons also leave people feeling insecure, we have recent bad history at the end of the season.
To repeat though, I think we will stay up now.
Sorry to be pedantic, Hound, but that great win at Leeds was 4 years ago; that's how quick time flies. I too remember leaving the ground feeling elated that we were now 8 points clear of relegation, with just 7 games left. We couldn't possibly f**k it up could we? We did.
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Sorry for appearing to be computer semi-literate, which I probably am, but I've not been posting very long, so can anyone explain why my last post seemed to answer BST's quote and not Hound's, as was intended, and how do I prevent this from happening?
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I'd guess you've clicked in the text box underneath BST's quote rather than at the bottom so it's put it in the middle (which is easily done if there's a decent gap between text).
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Steve, you can still go back to the post and modify it.
Delete what you typed and then restyle it after my post.
PS: 4 years !!
Time flies mate.
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I'd guess you've clicked in the text box underneath BST's quote rather than at the bottom so it's put it in the middle (which is easily done if there's a decent gap between text).
Thanks a lot, RedJ, mate; I now realise what I've done. Incidently, I've noticed that you, Hound, Alias, and I seem to have a similar view on football. Great minds eh?
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Steve, you can still go back to the post and modify it.
Delete what you typed and then restyle it after my post.
PS: 4 years !!
Time flies mate.
Thanks Hound, I've only just got round to doing it. It's now in the right order, but why is it still in the blue box?
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Steve, you can still go back to the post and modify it.
Delete what you typed and then restyle it after my post.
PS: 4 years !!
Time flies mate.
Thanks Hound, I've only just got round to doing it. It's now in the right order, but why is it still in the blue box?
Probably because you need to leave a few lines of empty space before typing.
I usually leave half a dozen lines clear.
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It looks like Walsall won’t be going in front of us tonight.
Wigan 3-0 up nearing Half time.
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Steve, you can still go back to the post and modify it.
Delete what you typed and then restyle it after my post.
PS: 4 years !!
Time flies mate.
Thanks Hound, I've only just got round to doing it. It's now in the right order, but why is it still in the blue box?
You need to make sure your text is after the bit that says [/quote], that part is where the blue box will end and the white begins when you hit post.
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I still stand by the magic figure of 50 points will see us safe. It would take almost promotion form for any of the bottom 4 to overtake us.
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I'm absolutely certain we'll comfortably stay up this season; and, as I've said in another post, if Fergie makes the right signings in the summer, we could be challenging for the play-offs next season.
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I don`t think 50 points will be enough to avoid a last game lottery and thus putting us all through it yet again.
54 points just might see us avoiding the last day jitters so it's important to accumulate those points as quickly as possible. I too remember the buzz that followed the Leeds game and even the press fell into the trap of declaring us safe after that result.
I suspect there will be plenty of caution out there with folk not renewing season memberships just yet.
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I think 48 points will be enough to survive
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I'm not sure that too many will be watching what league we will be in before renewing Baz.
We always renewed even on relegation. I only stopped because I felt I usually had to attend with my season ticket whereas I now choose my matches so I'm not travelling on my own a lot and paying a fortune for petrol.
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I'd guess you've clicked in the text box underneath BST's quote rather than at the bottom so it's put it in the middle (which is easily done if there's a decent gap between text).
Thanks a lot, RedJ, mate; I now realise what I've done. Incidently, I've noticed that you, Hound, Alias, and I seem to have a similar view on football. Great minds eh?
Aah so thats why you used to pick me ;)
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We need a positive end to the season to carry some momentum into next season. I feel happy that we'll stay up but we need to be pushing for a top half or top ten finish. Good for fans, good for the team and a statement of what next season may hold for any prospective signings
Definitely. We need to keep the foot on the gas, for all the reasons you stated above.
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We need a positive end to the season to carry some momentum into next season. I feel happy that we'll stay up but we need to be pushing for a top half or top ten finish. Good for fans, good for the team and a statement of what next season may hold for any prospective signings
Definitely. We need to keep the foot on the gas, for all the reasons you stated above.
Agreed need 3/4 more positive results should see us through and understand first 1000 ST been renewed. That was a good result on Monday night and if we carry on in the same vein - we SHOULD have a launch pad to mount an attack on those top places next season. We now have some decent players that we need to retain . Soon it will be time to consider who should stay or go
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I'd guess you've clicked in the text box underneath BST's quote rather than at the bottom so it's put it in the middle (which is easily done if there's a decent gap between text).
Thanks a lot, RedJ, mate; I now realise what I've done. Incidently, I've noticed that you, Hound, Alias, and I seem to have a similar view on football. Great minds eh?
Aah so thats why you used to pick me ;)
You were a good defender, Raven, and it was quite an honour to play for Scawsby Rangers then, particularly when you consider that we had some K form players in the team, who'd earned money in the game.
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Two more wins should secure safety on 52 points.. the bottom 4 teams need 1.5 points per game to get to 51.. we need to get points at half that rate..
Of course, we should aim for more..
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We've reached the big 50, should now be safe.
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Unless we have another one of the big end of season collapses then we are safe.
Don't think we will cock it up this time.
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We're looking much harder to beat these days. A bit functional at times but I make it only 3 league defeats since the Oxford game in mid December.
A few too many draws maybe, but if we can cash in on some winnable home games and finish in the top half that'll be a decent season overall.
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I imagine now even if we lost every game we’d be safe.
It’s been a very good season from October onwards.
Pressure will be on next season to be in and around the playoffs and I think if we’re not in the top half after ten games the knives will be back out
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CBCB
Yeah, it’s always good to be reminded of that.
Is it also perhaps worth gently reminding you that, after we found our feet in September, we have picked up points at top-half of the table rate for nearly 2/3rds of a season?
Or that we’ve lost only 5 league games out of 21 since the clocks went back despite those games including away matches against 6 of the top 8 and despite long term injuries having robbed us of for much of that time, up to half a first XI in
McCullough
Kiwomya
Butler
Baudry
Andrew
plus assorted others?
A typical season so far under DF.?
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50 points. BUT what a shit game we set off ok they could not get the ball, and then we went backwards 2 shots on target to there 1 could not pick a man o the match from any of them but if i had to i would say Tommy Rowe. nether keeper had anything to do, i just wonder how many daisy chains they both made
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We've reached the big 50, should now be safe.
I think we will be safe Les, but not if we end up losing our next 7 games, and stay on 50 points.
Bury and Northampton won't reach 50, and MK Dons might or might not. But I think all other teams may well reach 50. One win from our last seven will see us safe IMHO.
As I said much earlier in this thread, a team has been relegated from this league with 50 or more points in 15 of the 36 seasons since 3 points for a win, so it does happen. The highest points to be relegated is 54.
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We've reached the big 50, should now be safe.
I think we will be safe Les, but not if we end up losing our next 7 games, and stay on 50 points.
Bury and Northampton won't reach 50, and MK Dons might or might not. But I think all other teams may well reach 50. One win from our last seven will see us safe IMHO.
Dutch its not only MK and Rochdale that have to win most of there games for us to go down its most of the teams below us that have to do the same if and IF WE LOSE all ours
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Look at the table again Vicar. All except Bury, Northampton and maybe MK Dons could easily get 50 points, even allowing for taking points off each other.
But I don't think we will finish on 50 points.
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Last season when we were safe to go up ! We suddenly went on free points give away. Nah we need to play until it’s over and then look back and cry at the points we lost from winning positions.
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Still believe survival will be fairly high this season so will stick by 52 points to see us completely safe.
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Still believe survival will be fairly high this season so will stick by 52 points to see us completely safe.
That would be my guess as well Les
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Good yardstick next week - my dons away! Result there and I think we'll be ok.
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The next two games look very winnable. Personally I hope we win at MK next Saturday. It would hammer a nail in their coffin and would mean I've seen us win away this season!
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Look at the table again Vicar. All except Bury, Northampton and maybe MK Dons could easily get 50 points, even allowing for taking points off each other.
But I don't think we will finish on 50 points.
no nether do I, if we lose again Bury they all need sacking
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Our home form is good; one defeat in the League since late October and that in a game where we got very unlucky losing both centre backs to injury.
And five of our last seven games are at home.
My hunch is that fourth from bottom will end up on 49 points.
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I think we are safe, our form is not relegation form, 3 points next week against Franchise will seal our position in L1 for next season.
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Cannot see us going down now. It has never really looked on cards and we look good to stay clear of any trouble. After two years ago this is no mean achievement so well done to Ferguson and the team for building some solidity.
Interesting that in 2018 we have lost more than we have won, conceded as many as we have scored and averaged at just over a point a game. There was a golden spell of four wins and a draw out of six games leading up to Christmas that really did us well.
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Mathematically, after today's results, 61 points is the current required total to absolutely guarantee safety.
There's still plenty of work to be done.
Wimbledon losing to Charlton this week would see the tally required drop by a further two points - a draw and it drops to 60, at least, before considering any results elsewhere.
What a load of tosh, you are suggesting the bottom 4 win every game left to the end of the season . What's that, about 20 odd wins on the spin combined lol. Sod their form for the first 40 games shall we?
Mark my words, we are already safe, no more work at all needed. Feel free to bookmark this and bring it up later..
..plenty of work to be done!! .. brilliant. .
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Despite being the biggest pessimist going I don't think we have anything to worry about. However it would be good to finish this season strongly.
12 points from the last seven games would be a decent return.
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Adam read the post properly, the key word is "mathematically", and we are not talking about just the bottom 4 winning all their games. Glad you are so confident, me I just want us 4 points clear when we play Wigan
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Adam read the post properly, the key word is "mathematically", and we are not talking about just the bottom 4 winning all their games. Glad you are so confident, me I just want us 4 points clear when we play Wigan
Continue to read the post even more carefully and you will come across the key sentence, "there's still plenty of work to be done" that's the kicker. So the current safe position we are in isn't really all that safe . When someone is talking about 61 pts, 60 pts etc.. when never in the history of ever has that amount been needed. Statistically 48 is enough based on the huge amount of games played all ready.. everyone needs to relax....
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Mathematically, after today's results, 61 points is the current required total to absolutely guarantee safety.
There's still plenty of work to be done.
Wimbledon losing to Charlton this week would see the tally required drop by a further two points - a draw and it drops to 60, at least, before considering any results elsewhere.
What a load of tosh, you are suggesting the bottom 4 win every game left to the end of the season . What's that, about 20 odd wins on the spin combined lol. Sod their form for the first 40 games shall we?
Mark my words, we are already safe, no more work at all needed. Feel free to bookmark this and bring it up later..
..plenty of work to be done!! .. brilliant. .
On that note, I was idly wondering how many points you need to aim for at the first day of the season to be absolutely mathematically guaranteed to achieve safety.
I reckon it’s 82. As in, I think it is technically possible for the 4th bottom side to hit 81 points.
When does next season start?
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I think its 69 actually, for every win there's a loss, so 23 wins is the most every team can get if its averaged out.
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Adam read the post properly, the key word is "mathematically", and we are not talking about just the bottom 4 winning all their games. Glad you are so confident, me I just want us 4 points clear when we play Wigan
Continue to read the post even more carefully and you will come across the key sentence, "there's still plenty of work to be done" that's the kicker. So the current safe position we are in isn't really all that safe . When someone is talking about 61 pts, 60 pts etc.. when never in the history of ever has that amount been needed. Statistically 48 is enough based on the huge amount of games played all ready.. everyone needs to relax....
I think what is meant is that there is more work to be done by a combination of our own results and opponents of relegation threatened teams helping to bridge that 11 point mathematical gap with a combination of our points won and other teams’ points lost. It may be all 11 can come from the latter.
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It is 81 for 4th, bst is right, can you imagine needing a championship winning amount to avoid relegation. Crazy...
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I think its 69 actually, for every win there's a loss, so 23 wins is the most every team can get if its averaged out.
Close but there’s an aspect you’re not taking into account.
EDIT. Just seen your follow up.
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Last season the results faltered after it was mathematically impossible not to be promoted. That was why it happened, players thought job done. As it’s not mathematically impossible for us to go down you’d like to think the players won’t be thinking job done
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Rigo
Actually we’re both wrong.
Assume the bottom 3 lose every game against the top 21.
Assume the top 21 win every other game against each other. That gives the top 21 69 points.
So far it’s as you say. But then the top 21 win EVERY game against the bottom 3, home AND away. That’s 6 games = 18 points. So in theory, all the top 21 could hit 87 points. So, the lowest number of points any side could have to get to be mathematically certain of not being relegated is 88.
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Rigo
Actually we’re both wrong.
Assume the bottom 3 lose every game against the top 21.
Assume the top 21 win every other game against each other. That gives the top 21 69 points.
So far it’s as you say. But then the top 21 win EVERY game against the bottom 3, home AND away. That’s 6 games = 18 points. So in theory, all the top 21 could hit 87 points. So, the lowest number of points any side could have to get to be mathematically certain of not being relegated is 88.
The top.20 wining every other game against the other 19 sides gives 57 pts, Plus the 8 won games home and away v the bottom 4 is 24 more pts, so 81 in total?
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Argh!
Wish I’d never started it!
I actually think Rigo was right and I mis-read his post.
Top 21 play a total of 40 games against the rest of the top 21. They each win 20 and lose 20. That’s 60 points. Then those 21 all win all six games against the bottom 3. That’s another 18 points. So top be sure of finishing outside relegation places you need 79 points. As Rigo said.
It’s interesting that even as late as now, the target for mathematical certainty is 62 points. That shows how little the options close down over the first 80-odd% of the season. From now to May, that figure will drop down dramatically to maybe 47-52 points as the possible alternative sets of results become more constricted.
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Have we forgot the bottom 4, not 3 get relegated.
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No Adam.
The key target is one point more than the fourth bottom can get. So what matters is, how many points is the maximum that the 4th bottom can get. So you want the bottom three to get as few as possible so that there’s more points to grab for the rest of the sides.
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No BST, that makes no sense, why would you only want the bottom 3 to get as least as possible, making the 4th bottom potentially get more, to make the safe 5th from bottom harder to get..
You want all 4 relegation places to get as small a tally as possible...
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No BST, that makes no sense, why would you only want the bottom 3 to get as least as possible, making the 4th bottom potentially get more, to make the safe 5th from bottom harder to get..
You want all 4 relegation places to get as small a tally as possible...
Adam, I think you may understandably be mixing up this mathematical puzzle/theoretical exercise to construct the highest possible points needed to be better then 4th bottom (i.e. 4th bottom as high as possible), and the everyday looking at the table trying to keep the 4th bottom the lowest possible points.
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So Rigo, that raises the question of what ACTUALLY is the least number of points a side can get and stay up.
I think it’s 8.
Assume bottom 5 lose every match against every one of the top 19. Draw all their matches against each other. That means all the bottom 5 have 8 points. Presumably the one with the highest goal difference would stay up. I don’t THINK it’s possible to actually get fewer points than this and stay up.
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For what it is worth as a comparison, in the 36 seasons since 3 points per win in this League, 4th bottom has ranged between 43 and 54 points (average 48.5), and 5th bottom has ranged between 45 and 54 (average 50.6). Every season had 46 games.
So 54 is the highest to be relegated and 45 the lowest to survive.
Of course everything above does not allow for any points deductions.
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For what it is worth as a comparison, in the 36 seasons since 3 points per win in this League, 4th bottom has ranged between 43 and 54 points (average 48.5), and 5th bottom has ranged between 45 and 54 (average 50.6). Every season had 46 games.
So 54 is the highest to be relegated and 45 the lowest to survive.
Of course everything above does not allow for any points deductions.
Good point Dutch, now that throws a whole new light on this.
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But the 5th bottom team could have survived with the same points total as 4th bottom but a better goal difference. Or even the same goal difference but better goals scored etc.
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Adam read the post properly, the key word is "mathematically", and we are not talking about just the bottom 4 winning all their games. Glad you are so confident, me I just want us 4 points clear when we play Wigan
Continue to read the post even more carefully and you will come across the key sentence, "there's still plenty of work to be done" that's the kicker. So the current safe position we are in isn't really all that safe . When someone is talking about 61 pts, 60 pts etc.. when never in the history of ever has that amount been needed. Statistically 48 is enough based on the huge amount of games played all ready.. everyone needs to relax....
I think what is meant is that there is more work to be done by a combination of our own results and opponents of relegation threatened teams helping to bridge that 11 point mathematical gap with a combination of our points won and other teams’ points lost. It may be all 11 can come from the latter.
Correct DU until we are mathematically safe there is work to be done
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#mindblown.. theoretically tho, 1 pt is enough.. lol
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I wish Rachel Riley was doing this, at least there’d be summats to look at while listening to the tedium 😂
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Adam read the post properly, the key word is "mathematically", and we are not talking about just the bottom 4 winning all their games. Glad you are so confident, me I just want us 4 points clear when we play Wigan
Continue to read the post even more carefully and you will come across the key sentence, "there's still plenty of work to be done" that's the kicker. So the current safe position we are in isn't really all that safe . When someone is talking about 61 pts, 60 pts etc.. when never in the history of ever has that amount been needed. Statistically 48 is enough based on the huge amount of games played all ready.. everyone needs to relax....
I think what is meant is that there is more work to be done by a combination of our own results and opponents of relegation threatened teams helping to bridge that 11 point mathematical gap with a combination of our points won and other teams’ points lost. It may be all 11 can come from the latter.
Correct DU until we are mathematically safe there is work to be done
So are you saying that a team currently sitting on 60 pts should be sweating, cos the team 4th from bottom can achieve 61pts? Have they got work to do.
Last season folks were saying we needed 10 more pts than we currently ended up with to guaranteed promotion when there was about 7 games left. I was a lone voice in the dark saying we needed about 3 more points in early April, as the chasing pack simply.would not overtake us based in their current showing. I was proved correct.. the 4th placed team gained points at the same points they had over the previous 40 games. Sod the "we need 18 points as they have 6 games left" rubbish. When they have only been only gaining points at 1.7 pts per game etc.. if bookies.use this system to work out.odds, why shouldn't we. ?
Rochdale are on a run, no one else is, so there is no evidence to show that the bottom 4 or 5 will no gather more than 47 pts...
Oh.. and one thing that no one is mentioning is that we need to lose.every game left for the chasing pack to catch us. Let's forget that we have lost once at home since november. We should.really be looking up and thinking how high can we finish..
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Adam
No-one is saying DRFC need 60 or 61 points to avoid relegation in practice.
As a theoretical mathematical exercise, the worst case is that as of today 61 points would be needed, covering all mathematical cases (including infinitesimally likely ones). As we count down there will (hopefully) come a day when we say 'now we can no longer be relegated'. With any luck that might be for example with 3 matches left to play and we are 9 or more points clear. In the final table it may be that it transpired that all along we actually needed 52 or 54 or maybe our current 50 points to survive. But we don't know that yet.
This is just a count down to the mathematical certainty of when (hopefully) relegation is avoided.
I fully agree with your last sentence - I am optimistically hoping we might sneak 10th place, but 12-14th would be OK.
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My prediction that a side could stay up on 46 points is looking dodgy.
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My prediction that a side could stay up on 46 points is looking dodgy.
you wont be far off bst, 4th from bottom won't better 47 pts..
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We are safe as houses. Never even looked to be relegation threatened. 48/49 points is about most 21st will achieve.
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My prediction that a side could stay up on 46 points is looking dodgy.
you wont be far off bst, 4th from bottom won't better 47 pts..
Intuition would tell you its going to be higher than 46 points, as bst says. All that needs to happen is Oldham need 2 points from 7 games, Wimbledon 3 points from 6 games, and Rochdale 4 points from 7 games. In other words, beyond terrible form for all 3 teams and, without looking, I imagine some play each other.
edit: and Oldham's, Wimbledon's, Rochdale's and MK Dons' form has all picked up lately.
If you extend each team's 8 game form for the rest of the season you get a table like this, and 51 points needed to stay up.
9th Scunthorpe 65
10th Doncaster 61
11th Britstol Rover 61
12th Fleetwood 60
13th Southend 59
14th Bradford 57
15th Blackpool 57
16th Gillingham 55
17th Oldham 55
18th Rochdale 53
19th Oxford 52
20th Walsall 52
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21st Wimbledon 50
22nd Mk Dons 49
23rd Northampton 43
24th Bury 33
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Copps
Aye. That’s more or less the method I’ve used in recent seasons and it’s consustently predicted similar final points tallies for each position from January onwards.
It’s certainly not worked this season. Back in Feb, it was predicting that the 3rd and 4th bottom sides would get 45/46 points. For once, the form of several sides in the bottom 6-7 has improved at the same time and that’s screwed up that predictor. In previous seasons, for each side that improved, another one dipped, so the points prediction for each final position remained roughly constant.
I still don’t think the 4th bottom will get 50 points. There are some tough run ins for the bottom sides and I think it might be 48-49. Rochdale will do very well to continue their current form. They’ve had a hellishly busy schedule and by the end of this month they’ll have played 20 matches in 74 days. There’ll be some heavy legs in tha squad.
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What we need is a good graph.
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Steffie always looked good.
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I don't really care what the mathematics are, the team should be still firing on all cylinders and showing they have the heart and desire to finish this season on the highest total possible in order to show the previous capitulations are a thing of the past.
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I don't really care what the mathematics are, the team should be still firing on all cylinders and showing they have the heart and desire to finish this season on the highest total possible in order to show the previous capitulations are a thing of the past.
It would be nice to see that for a change.
Also a good finish to the season and say, a tenth place finish, would give floating fans an incentive to buy tickets for next season.
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We are safe according to the BBC.
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I believe we are too but until it’s mathematically so I still wouldn’t rest we need to push all the way get high as we can. Makes us a better prospect for any future transfers.
If we can finish say 8th within 8-10 points of the playoffs would mean we can say to any potential signings that we are pushing for playoffs, if we finish any lower than say 16th then that would be a difficult sell against other clubs higher in the league for the same players
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Got to keep going until the fat lady says its over. Keep the fans turning out with a glimmer of hope and to wet their appetite for next season.
In addition, we might even get a cameo from Danny Andrew to show what we could have had on that left side if it weren't for the roll of a dice.
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It’s still mathematically possible to get into playoffs let’s stop thinking relegation. This squad of players need to get results in every game we got left. Performance is good but results are better.