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Viking Chat => Viking Chat => Topic started by: Chris Black come back on April 27, 2019, 04:56:04 pm

Title: Permutations
Post by: Chris Black come back on April 27, 2019, 04:56:04 pm
Due to the calamitous defeat for Peterborough today and our draw, unless Peterborough beat Portsmouth away on Tuesday night, we are in the play offs.
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: Copps is Magic on April 27, 2019, 04:58:50 pm
Don't think that's correct is it? Coventry can still technically catch us.
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: drfchound on April 27, 2019, 04:59:33 pm
Don't think that's correct is it? Coventry can still technically catch us.






Only if they have two massive wins.
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: RobTheRover on April 27, 2019, 05:01:49 pm
Unlikely. They are 6 points behind us with 2 to play, and we have a 14 goal advantage on GD.

They would need to beat Shrewsbury tomorrow, say, 5-0 and then beat us 5-0 in the final match
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: Chris Black come back on April 27, 2019, 05:02:13 pm
Coventry are 14 goals behind us. That is not going to change in two games. Ain’t going to happen.

The only result that matters now is if Peterborough can beat Portsmouth at Fratton Park or not. Lose or draw and we are in play offs.

Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: Chris Black come back on April 27, 2019, 05:03:21 pm
Unlikely. They are 6 points behind us with 2 to play, and we have a 14 goal advantage on GD.

They would need to beat Shrewsbury tomorrow, say, 5-0 and then beat us 5-0 in the final match

You are confusing Coventry and Peterborough. The former are 14 goals worse than us, the latter are 10 goals.
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: drfchound on April 27, 2019, 05:05:36 pm
Unlikely. They are 6 points behind us with 2 to play, and we have a 14 goal advantage on GD.

They would need to beat Shrewsbury tomorrow, say, 5-0 and then beat us 5-0 in the final match

You are confusing Coventry and Peterborough. The former are 14 goals worse than us, the latter are 10 goals.






No he isn’t.
If they beat us 5-0 our goal difference would worsen by five, therefore making a 15 goal swing if they also win 5-0 tomorrow.
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: big fat yorkshire pudding on April 27, 2019, 05:06:31 pm
Peterborough will probably beat Portsmouth now.
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: Chris Black come back on April 27, 2019, 05:08:12 pm
Unlikely. They are 6 points behind us with 2 to play, and we have a 14 goal advantage on GD.

They would need to beat Shrewsbury tomorrow, say, 5-0 and then beat us 5-0 in the final match

You are confusing Coventry and Peterborough. The former are 14 goals worse than us, the latter are 10 goals.






No he isn’t.
If they beat us 5-0 our goal difference would worsen by five, therefore making a 15 goal swing if they also win 5-0 tomorrow.

Yes, true with the rounding up.
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: Copps is Magic on April 27, 2019, 05:08:47 pm
Its not beyond the realm of possibility for Coventry to get a big win against Shrewsbury. Then there IS something to play for in the last game. Its a thin something but something.

You can't suggest a permutation which isn't actually a permutation.
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: Chris Black come back on April 27, 2019, 05:09:41 pm
It is a pain about Coventry. Hopefully they will slip up tomorrow and we can all enjoy an easy day next Saturday.
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: Filo on April 27, 2019, 05:10:54 pm
Peterborough will not win both their final remaning games
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: normal rules on April 27, 2019, 06:16:02 pm
Assuming rovers make 6th. Would be nice if dingles slip up at Bristol rovers in their remaining game. Pompey then beat posh and Stanley in two remains games at home, meaning we would get dingles in playoffs. Just don’t want Pompey or Sunderland.
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: Colemans Left Hook on April 27, 2019, 06:19:27 pm
as i've just pointed out elsewhere Oxford play Luton away last match and Luton could end up 3rd ?? and I wouldn't be afraid of them
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: eric the red on April 27, 2019, 06:30:49 pm
Chris Black, enjoy Saturday because we are playing on Sunday!
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: eric the red on April 27, 2019, 06:38:17 pm
My apologies we are playing on Saturday, oops!
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: RoversAlias on April 27, 2019, 06:46:55 pm
as i've just pointed out elsewhere Oxford play Luton away last match and Luton could end up 3rd ?? and I wouldn't be afraid of them

Almost unthinkable until recently that Luton might be a Play Off opponent...now it could well happen. And they are the one side above us that we have beaten this season...
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: idler on April 27, 2019, 06:55:45 pm
My apologies we are playing on Saturday, oops!
Are you any relation to Eric the wrong? 😉
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: The Red Baron on April 27, 2019, 07:40:30 pm
I'm going to be a massive Pompey fan on Tuesday night. I might even invest in a silly hat and a bell.

I don't think Coventry can catch us. Even if they win next Saturday they won't turn around that goal difference. And they may drop points tomorrow against Shrewsbury.
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: steve@dcfd on April 27, 2019, 07:47:47 pm
If GM had continued with 4231 instead of changing  I believe we would have had 74 pts already and nothing to worry about,
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: Jim Dobbin on April 27, 2019, 08:21:08 pm
Assuming rovers make 6th. Would be nice if dingles slip up at Bristol rovers in their remaining game. Pompey then beat posh and Stanley in two remains games at home, meaning we would get dingles in playoffs. Just don’t want Pompey or Sunderland.

Chortle
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: Jonathan on April 27, 2019, 08:39:11 pm
If GM had continued with 4231 instead of changing  I believe we would have had 74 pts already and nothing to worry about,

Possibly. But I think it’s more important to point out that if GM hadn’t been appointed then I doubt we’d be anywhere near this position. It’s already a certainty that we will go into the last game of the season with a play off place in our own hands. Who wouldn’t have taken that last summer?

I said before the season that I thought we needed a manager that would get more from the team than the sum of the parts. We have got that in Grant McCann. So massive credit to him and to the board for appointing him.
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: steve@dcfd on April 27, 2019, 10:19:01 pm
If GM had continued with 4231 instead of changing  I believe we would have had 74 pts already and nothing to worry about,

Possibly. But I think it’s more important to point out that if GM hadn’t been appointed then I doubt we’d be anywhere near this position. It’s already a certainty that we will go into the last game of the season with a play off place in our own hands. Who wouldn’t have taken that last summer?

I said before the season that I thought we needed a manager that would get more from the team than the sum of the parts. We have got that in Grant McCann. So massive credit to him and to the board for appointing him.
Not disputing any of what you said but he also has to learn trying to stick rigidly to 433 can hinder the team. Copps for instance is not a front three player and gives more to the side by coming inside. Grant has got more from the team we will probably finish in 6th which is great. But like players he has his flaws, but he will make decisions to rectify them. But if we have started 4231 in the last 4 games I believe like the previous 4 we would have got more points.
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: tyke1962 on April 28, 2019, 10:15:03 am
Imagine Luton falling in to the play offs after leading the league for so long .

What a catastrophe , surely they would be spent for the play off campaign and ripe for Rovers to turn them over .
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: Chris Black come back on April 28, 2019, 10:22:06 am
Coventry City at home today to Shrewsbury. Both have similar records.

Coventry home record decidedly patchy - last ten home games in League One: won 4, drawn 3, lost 3.

Shrewsbury have similarly particularly away record in League One. Last ten games delivered: won 3, drawn 3, lost 4.

Draw would be great outcome.
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: RedJ on April 28, 2019, 10:30:41 am
Imagine Luton falling in to the play offs after leading the league for so long .

What a catastrophe , surely they would be spent for the play off campaign and ripe for Rovers to turn them over .

Aye, would be batshit that, being in pole position for absolutely ages then finishing third.

Oh, f**k...
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: olddonnyphart on April 28, 2019, 11:23:38 am
All these perms. That your all doing, only one simple perm is next Saturday we beat Coventry. That is the one that matters.
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: phil old leake on April 28, 2019, 11:58:59 am
I’m assuming that if we come sixth it’s barndle or Sunderland
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: RedJ on April 28, 2019, 12:01:55 pm
I’m assuming that if we come sixth it’s barndle or Sunderland

Could still mathematically be anyone above us that ends up in 3rd. We're the only ones that won't move up - and at this stage, very unlikely to move down.
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: NewDonny on April 28, 2019, 12:06:07 pm
Don't think that's correct is it? Coventry can still technically catch us.

Seriously, you think they are going to score 14 league goals in two games with us not scoring against them as well.

Come on behave!
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: dknward2 on April 28, 2019, 12:55:02 pm
If Coventry 5 nil today and beat us by 5 clear goals then they could overtake us.

That is a huge ask but could be done, if they lose or draw then season over for them.

Now on to Peterborough on Tuesday they lose then we are in the playoffs, a draw or win then prolongs the wait
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: RoversAlias on April 28, 2019, 01:01:38 pm
Don't think that's correct is it? Coventry can still technically catch us.

Seriously, you think they are going to score 14 league goals in two games with us not scoring against them as well.

Come on behave!

They don't need to score 14 goals. Every goal against us will bring that GD gap down by 2. Obviously it is extraordinarily unlikely, but not impossible, for them to beat us by 6 goals which would actually be a 12-goal swing between us, and if they win 2-0 today that would then be enough for them.

I remember a few years ago in the Championship, Cardiff and Preston were battling for the last Play Off spot and the side in 7th needed a big swing of 6 goals or so to make it. They then beat the side in 6th about 6-0 and sneaked in by a single goal.

EDIT: I've looked it up, and in 2008/09 Preston beat Cardiff into 6th spot on Goals Scored, by virtue of scoring one more than Cardiff. In the closing weeks of the season, Preston somehow thrashed Cardiff 6-0 meaning that that result was the difference. Cardiff would've beaten them to it on Goal Difference fairly comfortably otherwise, because that game alone brought about a 12-goal swing in the two teams' respective Goal Difference disparity.
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: NewDonny on April 28, 2019, 01:18:17 pm
Don't think that's correct is it? Coventry can still technically catch us.

Seriously, you think they are going to score 14 league goals in two games with us not scoring against them as well.

Come on behave!



They don't need to score 14 goals. Every goal against us will bring that GD gap down by 2. Obviously it is extraordinarily unlikely, but not impossible, for them to beat us by 6 goals which would actually be a 12-goal swing between us, and if they win 2-0 today that would then be enough for them.

I remember a few years ago in the Championship, Cardiff and Preston were battling for the last Play Off spot and the side in 7th needed a big swing of 6 goals or so to make it. They then beat the side in 6th about 6-0 and sneaked in by a single goal.

EDIT: I've looked it up, and in 2008/09 Preston beat Cardiff into 6th spot on Goals Scored, by virtue of scoring one more than Cardiff. In the closing weeks of the season, Preston somehow thrashed Cardiff 6-0 meaning that that result was the difference. Cardiff would've beaten them to it on Goal Difference fairly comfortably otherwise, because that game alone brought about a 12-goal swing in the two teams' respective Goal Difference disparity.

Please stop, they are currently adrift of our goal difference by 14 goals with 2 games to play one of which is against us. They are NOT GOING TO MAKE UP THAT DEFICIT.
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: RoversAlias on April 28, 2019, 01:20:49 pm
I did say it was extremely unlikely. Just explaining to you that they don't need to score 14 goals in these two games to do it.

Shrewsbury will beat them this afternoon and make the entire discussion irrelevant, hopefully.
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: Chris Black come back on April 28, 2019, 01:21:26 pm
Or draw. Their evenly matched results suggest a draw could be a result. That would be enough.
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: elmsallrover on April 28, 2019, 01:25:39 pm
as i've just pointed out elsewhere Oxford play Luton away last match and Luton could end up 3rd ?? and I wouldn't be afraid of them
not afraid of them totally outplayed us home and away
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: elmsallrover on April 28, 2019, 01:31:34 pm
Goal difference doesn't mean a thing if Peterborough win on Tuesday night just look at last Tuesday nobody gave Accrington a chance vs rovers and came away with a 2-1 win
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: Campsall rover on April 28, 2019, 02:41:39 pm
Goal difference doesn't mean a thing if Peterborough win on Tuesday night just look at last Tuesday nobody gave Accrington a chance vs rovers and came away with a 2-1 win
Exactly. Coventry are irrelevant unless they win 7 nil today.
It’s the team that DF perpetrates to be the manager of, that we hope, don’t find some form on Tuesday and turn over Pompey.
Can’t see it but .......  :facepalm: Football can throw up the unexpected and does. Frequently, that’s what makes this game what it is. Predictability would make it very boring. BUT I WILL TAKE BORING on Tuesday eve. PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: RoversAlias on April 28, 2019, 04:42:24 pm
as i've just pointed out elsewhere Oxford play Luton away last match and Luton could end up 3rd ?? and I wouldn't be afraid of them
not afraid of them totally outplayed us home and away

They can outplay us all they like so long as we beat them, as we did at the Keepmoat this season. They aren't some infallible force and we clearly had a massive off-day at their place, missing key players.
Title: Re: Permutations
Post by: Alan Southstand on April 28, 2019, 05:39:41 pm
One less permutation!