Viking Supporters Co-operative
Viking Chat => Off Topic => Topic started by: albie on May 20, 2019, 07:49:06 pm
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I thought it might be helpful to explain how it works on Thursday:
https://theconversation.com/european-elections-guide-whats-actually-on-the-ballot-paper-116975
Some might not be aware of the differences between the election of MEP's and the UK system for a GE.
I know there is another thread on the "Brexit Deal", but this is different...it is about the process, not about whether you are leave or remain!
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It will probably be the lowest ever turn out for voters.
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It will probably be the lowest ever turn out for voters.
I think it'll be one of the higher Euro election turnouts. Not that its a high bar to beat.
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Crazy result in donny, 45% for Brexit party....
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I think its more of a case of telling the Government do what you were told rather than party politics
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So, the election results have told us what we already knew.
There's a hardcore anti-EU group of 40-45% of the population. That group voted overwhelmingly for (Farage's) UKIP in 2014. They've voted overwhelmingly in similar numbers for (Farage's) BP this week.
That makes sense. Some folk will follow a Fuhrer...sorry...Leader wherever he takes them, because it's easier to give your support to a larger than life personality, than to get down an dirty with the detail of policy.
That much was expected and it happened. No big earthquake there
The really interesting thing is what's happened on the elsewhere.
The Tory and Lab votes have collapsed. Again, as we expected. But look where they have gone. There's been a far bigger increase in the Remain supporting parties' vote share (LD, Green, ChUK, PC, SNP) than there has in the vote share of Brexit + UKIP over UKIP last time.
That's a massive outcome.
The country has shifted strongly towards Remain supporting parties.
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I think its more of a case of telling the Government do what you were told rather than party politics
So you tell them what to do by telling them to feck off, do you? I always thought telling someone to feck off meant you were telling them to feck off.
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Crazy result in donny, 45% for Brexit party....
Not sure why that is particularly surprising.
Donny voted hugely for Brexit in 2010. It's not really surprising that a party avowedly supporting Brexit this week picks up 45%.
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I thought the Brexit Party were standing for a No Deal Brexit as their only issue? How come as soon as they start winning they want to be included in the negotiations? If they want no deal they wouldn't need to negotiate, they'd just leave...
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Ahh Glyn.
That faux naivete!
You know as well as I do, you little tinker, that the true aim of Farage is to shift the Tory party to the Right. And that what he's doing tonight is pivoting and offering an olive branch to Raab and Johnson. (Because one of them will be PM in 6 weeks time.)
He's saying, "You go Hard Right and we'll support you. You cut funding for schools and the NHS, and give us tax cuts, and we'll support you. We've got the power to support you because 45% of folk in Donny voted for us.
"No! I know! I can't believe it either! They must be even f**king thicker than we imagined!"
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So are we talking about 45% of the votes cast, or 45% of the eligible electorate?
Big difference, and numbers matter!
So if the turnout was, say 35%...then we are talking about 45% of that 35%...or not?
The overall number is not too different from the last EU election.
Higher turnout, nearly all UKIP follows Farrago to Brexit.
Remain vote split between more parties, but also holds up.
As a small part of the EU whole, the real story is probably the breakdown of the trad power blocks, with populism on the rise in some places.
Oh, and the Greens steadily improving across Europe.
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Remain - 41%
No Deal - 35%
Leave with a deal - 24%
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Remain - 41%
No Deal - 35%
Leave with a deal - 24%
That's pretty much my reading of it, other than that the 24% will contain a certain number who would prefer Remain or No Deal, but stuck with the big two through tribal loyalty.
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Remain - 41%
No Deal - 35%
Leave with a deal - 24%
That's pretty much my reading of it, other than that the 24% will contain a certain number who would prefer Remain or No Deal, but stuck with the big two through tribal loyalty.
Yeah, my girlfriend went Labour and she's pro-remain. The high majority of Labours members are remain so give them to that remain margin and Tories to leave and it's a higher win for remain.
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So, the election results have told us what we already knew.
There's a hardcore anti-EU group of 40-45% of the population. That group voted overwhelmingly for (Farage's) UKIP in 2014. They've voted overwhelmingly in similar numbers for (Farage's) BP this week.
That makes sense. Some folk will follow a Fuhrer...sorry...Leader wherever he takes them, because it's easier to give your support to a larger than life personality, than to get down an dirty with the detail of policy.
That much was expected and it happened. No big earthquake there
The really interesting thing is what's happened on the elsewhere.
The Tory and Lab votes have collapsed. Again, as we expected. But look where they have gone. There's been a far bigger increase in the Remain supporting parties' vote share (LD, Green, ChUK, PC, SNP) than there has in the vote share of Brexit + UKIP over UKIP last time.
That's a massive outcome.
The country has shifted strongly towards Remain supporting parties.
😂😂😂😂, how's your pint of bitter tasting today? Extra bitter I assume?
Youve belated on about what you think people want for the last two years. YOU COULDN'T HAVE BEEN MORE WRONG.
Not ashamed to admit, I'm feeling a bit smug this morning.
It's probably now time you accepted it for your own mental health. Seriously.
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So, the election results have told us what we already knew.
There's a hardcore anti-EU group of 40-45% of the population. That group voted overwhelmingly for (Farage's) UKIP in 2014. They've voted overwhelmingly in similar numbers for (Farage's) BP this week.
That makes sense. Some folk will follow a Fuhrer...sorry...Leader wherever he takes them, because it's easier to give your support to a larger than life personality, than to get down an dirty with the detail of policy.
That much was expected and it happened. No big earthquake there
The really interesting thing is what's happened on the elsewhere.
The Tory and Lab votes have collapsed. Again, as we expected. But look where they have gone. There's been a far bigger increase in the Remain supporting parties' vote share (LD, Green, ChUK, PC, SNP) than there has in the vote share of Brexit + UKIP over UKIP last time.
That's a massive outcome.
The country has shifted strongly towards Remain supporting parties.
😂😂😂😂, how's your pint of bitter tasting today? Extra bitter I assume?
Youve belated on about what you think people want for the last two years. YOU COULDN'T HAVE BEEN MORE WRONG.
Not ashamed to admit, I'm feeling a bit smug this morning.
It's probably now time you accepted it for your own mental health. Seriously.
Fair play taking some votes off the Tories after only becoming a party a few week ago but the parties with the ideology you believe in only coming 2nd isn't anything to be smug about. What happened to that 17.4 million?
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BST. If you genuinely believe Farage is a Fuhrer why aren't you shitting yourself after all the poison you've spread about him?
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The country has shifted strongly towards Remain supporting parties.
That may be what you want to happen but it's not possible to deduce that from these results.
Turnout was around 37-38% so slightly up on 2014 but 32% of people who voted in 2017 and 34% of people who voted in 2016 didn't vote on Thursday. All you can say about these voters is that around 50% of people who normally vote don't feel strongly one way or the other. Or they would have voted.
Factor in the joint Labour/Cons vote - who again don't feel strongly enough one way or the other - and that's at least 60% of the electorate.
Well done to Brexit Party, Lib Dems & the Greens for getting their message across and voters out - but attempting to interpret this as any more than a protest vote, both ways, is highly disingenuous.
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.The reality of it all.....
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BS
I appreciate that you do gut instinct and headlines rather than facts, but I'm boring in that I do the facts first, and reach my conclusions after looking at those facts.
So let's have a look at the facts.
Here's the vote share
Hard Brexit supporting parties
BP 31.6
UKIP 3.3
Total 34.9
Remain supporting parties
LD 20.3
Green 12.1
SNP 3.6
PC 1.0
ChUK 3.4
Total 40.4
Then you've got 9.1% Con who would probably break more for Hard Brexit and 14.1% Lab who would probably break more to soft Brexit/Remain.
You see a resounding success for Hard Brexit there? Nope, me neither.
What about the change in vote share from 2014?
Hard Brexit parties
BP +31.6
UKIP -24.2
Net +7.4
Strongly Remain
LD +13.4
Green +4.2
SNP +1.1
PC +0.3
ChUK +3.4
Net +22.4
You see a Hard Brexit wave barrelling over the nation there and sweeping Remain support away? Nope. Me neither.
Last night told us what the polls have been saying for months. Opinions have hardened. Parties that try to ride both horses get hammered. 30-35% of the population do want a Hard Brexit. 40+% want Brexit cancelled.
You go ahead an have your smug warm feeling about the Farageist being the biggest single party, but the actual facts don't support what you want them to. What Farage has actually done is to sweep up those who voted UKIP in 2014 and add about 3% extra on top. Whereas the unambiguously Remain supporting parties have added seven times that amount to their 2014 performance.
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Bravo, BST. Exactly how I kind of saw it without the opportunity to pull the figures through. The centrist "see which way the wind blows" of elements of Labour and Conservative have served neither party well. People want a clear message and have told the parties that in no uncertain terms.
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Wilts
Yeah. I get it.
Polls can't be trusted to give you a picture of what the country thinks (unless they support Corbyn, in which case they can).
You also can't draw any conclusions from actual elections either.
I see the theme.
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Correction to my earlier post in the interest of being fair and truthful.
Wasn't fair to say "What Farage has actually done is to sweep up those who voted UKIP in 2014 and add about 3% extra on top."
That's just comparing BP's result last night to UKIP's in 2014.
What I SHOULD have done is to compare the combined BP/UKIP result last night to UKIP in 2014. That's 34.9 vs 27.5.
So, the Hard Brexiters swept up all the support from 2014 and added 7.4% on top. Which is about 1/3rd of what the Hard Remainers added to their 2014 performance
Here's the fascinating point for me though.
The Hard Brexit parties added 7.4% to their 2014 performance. Let's assume that All of that came from Hard Brexit supporters who previously voted Tory (that won't be true, because I've no doubt some are ex-Lab supporters, but stick with it - this is just illustrating a point.)
But the Tories are down 14.9% on their 2014 showing.
So, more of the electorate who supported the Tories in 2014 have now gone somewhere else, other than to a Hard Brexit party than the ones who HAVE moved to a Hard Brexit party.
That might be the real big finding of last night.
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BS
I appreciate that you do gut instinct and headlines rather than facts, but I'm boring in that I do the facts first, and reach my conclusions after looking at those facts.
So let's have a look at the facts.
Here's the vote share
Hard Brexit supporting parties
BP 31.6
UKIP 3.3
Total 34.9
Remain supporting parties
LD 20.3
Green 12.1
SNP 3.6
PC 1.0
ChUK 3.4
Total 40.4
Then you've got 9.1% Con who would probably break more for Hard Brexit and 14.1% Lab who would probably break more to soft Brexit/Remain.
You see a resounding success for Hard Brexit there? Nope, me neither.
What about the change in vote share from 2014?
Hard Brexit parties
BP +31.6
UKIP -24.2
Net +7.4
Strongly Remain
LD +13.4
Green +4.2
SNP +1.1
PC +0.3
ChUK +3.4
Net +22.4
You see a Hard Brexit wave barrelling over the nation there and sweeping Remain support away? Nope. Me neither.
Last night told us what the polls have been saying for months. Opinions have hardened. Parties that try to ride both horses get hammered. 30-35% of the population do want a Hard Brexit. 40+% want Brexit cancelled.
You go ahead an have your smug warm feeling about the Farageist being the biggest single party, but the actual facts don't support what you want them to. What Farage has actually done is to sweep up those who voted UKIP in 2014 and add about 3% extra on top. Whereas the unambiguously Remain supporting parties have added seven times that amount to their 2014 performance.
Wow, think your clutching at straws, still.
Fact is, the brexit party Dominated.
If the majority wanted to remain (which they certainly don't) then the lib dems would have done better, which they didn't.
Here's a point for you, a large majority DO want a hard brexit.
The rest (remain, and deal) can't decide what they want. It's those idiots who have caused this whole mess.
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So in conclusion, people want to leave but likely with a deal? Doesn't tell us that much other than the splits are not that unchanged.
I imagine the Tories and labour would both fair better with alternate leaders....
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BS
I appreciate that you do gut instinct and headlines rather than facts, but I'm boring in that I do the facts first, and reach my conclusions after looking at those facts.
So let's have a look at the facts.
Here's the vote share
Hard Brexit supporting parties
BP 31.6
UKIP 3.3
Total 34.9
Remain supporting parties
LD 20.3
Green 12.1
SNP 3.6
PC 1.0
ChUK 3.4
Total 40.4
Then you've got 9.1% Con who would probably break more for Hard Brexit and 14.1% Lab who would probably break more to soft Brexit/Remain.
You see a resounding success for Hard Brexit there? Nope, me neither.
What about the change in vote share from 2014?
Hard Brexit parties
BP +31.6
UKIP -24.2
Net +7.4
Strongly Remain
LD +13.4
Green +4.2
SNP +1.1
PC +0.3
ChUK +3.4
Net +22.4
You see a Hard Brexit wave barrelling over the nation there and sweeping Remain support away? Nope. Me neither.
Last night told us what the polls have been saying for months. Opinions have hardened. Parties that try to ride both horses get hammered. 30-35% of the population do want a Hard Brexit. 40+% want Brexit cancelled.
You go ahead an have your smug warm feeling about the Farageist being the biggest single party, but the actual facts don't support what you want them to. What Farage has actually done is to sweep up those who voted UKIP in 2014 and add about 3% extra on top. Whereas the unambiguously Remain supporting parties have added seven times that amount to their 2014 performance.
Wow, think your clutching at straws, still.
Fact is, the brexit party Dominated.
If the majority wanted to remain (which they certainly don't) then the lib dems would have done better, which they didn't.
Here's a point for you, a large majority DO want a hard brexit.
The rest (remain, and deal) can't decide what they want. It's those idiots who have caused this whole mess.
A large majority. 34.9%.
Quality maths, that.
At the end of the day, only around 30 of the 73 MEPs elected want no deal. The rest want to remain or Soft Brexit.
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BS
I really, really hope your job doesn't involve numbers.
How in God's name do you draw the conclusion that a large majority want No Deal?
BFYP
How on earth do you come to that conclusion? 76% of people voted for parties that explicitly want a No Deal Brexit or Re2/Revoke.
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Billy, do you realise how laughable the remain parties claiming they won that election is.
Listen to talk radio, people with that opinion are being ridiculed on the airwaves, they are losing their credibility.
How long has it been Billy since you had a result in an election you thought was right, there have not been many lately surely.
Soubry even claimed that chuk did well because they were a new party, that brought the house down.
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Although turnout increased for an EU election, the majority chose NOT to vote.
So the key takeaway from this is that the "Dont give a toss party" have routed the mainstream players...again.
The question going forward is how to bring the disaffected back into the democratic arena?
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OK guys, once again it's down to me to bring some common sense and perspective to this debate. All the pundits and experts of all political persuasions have said that last night's results have only shown what people already knew, that the country is completely split down the middle on Brexit, and there are no numbers in Parliament for any way out of this.
I said the day after the 2016 Referendum that the Liberalist Establishment of Britain would never let us leave the EU, and that's exactly what's happening. Come October 31st, we'll ask for another extension, and it will be granted, and the sh*tshow will just go on and on.
All this means is that the country is bitterly divided, and that bitterness will never ever go away. I saw it after the miners' strike; brother against brother, father against son, friends against friends.
That's what we've got coming. Thanks a lot David Cameron.
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OK guys, once again it's down to me to bring some common sense and perspective to this debate. All the pundits and experts of all political persuasions have said that last night's results have only shown what people already knew, that the country is completely split down the middle on Brexit, and there are no numbers in Parliament for any way out of this.
I said the day after the 2016 Referendum that the Liberalist Establishment of Britain would never let us leave the EU, and that's exactly what's happening. Come October 31st, we'll ask for another extension, and it will be granted, and the sh*tshow will just go on and on.
All this means is that the country is bitterly divided, and that bitterness will never ever go away. I saw it after the miners' strike; brother against brother, father against son, friends against friends.
That's what we've got coming. Thanks a lot David Cameron.
Not wrong at all. Wonder what the outcome will be? Whatever it is will leave a very bitter half the population and nothing will "bring the country back together".
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I actually think if there was a general election now, labour would be gone in Donny now. Additionally across the country it would be so split into 5 parties more than ever. At least it might break the 2 party trend
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Lastly the Doncaster result also shows this forum doesn't reflect the Doncaster public's thoughts
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Selby
Look at the numbers. Tell me what you see.
If you see a clear triumph for Hard Brexit, point it out.
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Lastly the Doncaster result also shows this forum doesn't reflect the Doncaster public's thoughts
Course it doesn't. You're absolutely right. Everyone knows Donny fans are far smarter than normal people.
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Wilts
Yeah. I get it.
Polls can't be trusted to give you a picture of what the country thinks (unless they support Corbyn, in which case they can).
You also can't draw any conclusions from actual elections either.
I see the theme.
My conclusion from this election is that only 36.7% of the electorate took part in it. So at least 33% of people who voted in the last GE did vote last week.
If you want to draw conclusions by ignoring a third of the voting public that's fine. But just like your ignoring of any poll that is positive towards Corbyn it's not statistics - its propoganda.
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Billy , all the remainer parties polled 40% of the vote, the Brexit party polled 34% of the vote add the tory 9% and the labour 14% and with both parties having it in their manifestos to respect the referendum, which to my knowledge is still those parties aspiration, and in fact have just spent the last six weeks trying to agree a way to come out.
Unless the voters for both parties still don't know what they were voting for like you and many others did't in the last general election, the vote for out has extended it's lead.
Or did you campaign in the knowledge you were telling lies while out on the stump?
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If Thorneberry looks at a map of the English constituencies where they returned the Brexit party, and pushes the Labour Party into campaigning to stay in the EU, there is a good chance she will finish the Labour Party in their northern and midlands heartlands for ever.
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Billy , all the remainer parties polled 40% of the vote, the Brexit party polled 34% of the vote add the tory 9% and the labour 14% and with both parties having it in their manifestos to respect the referendum, which to my knowledge is still those parties aspiration, and in fact have just spent the last six weeks trying to agree a way to come out.
Unless the voters for both parties still don't know what they were voting for like you and many others did't in the last general election, the vote for out has extended it's lead.
Or did you campaign in the knowledge you were telling lies while out on the stump?
If the Tories and Labour wanted the same thing we wouldn't have had 5 extensions. The fact also is that Labour members nearly 90% want a 2nd referendum, so they're more likely remainers x
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Billy , all the remainer parties polled 40% of the vote, the Brexit party polled 34% of the vote add the tory 9% and the labour 14% and with both parties having it in their manifestos to respect the referendum, which to my knowledge is still those parties aspiration, and in fact have just spent the last six weeks trying to agree a way to come out.
Unless the voters for both parties still don't know what they were voting for like you and many others did't in the last general election, the vote for out has extended it's lead.
Or did you campaign in the knowledge you were telling lies while out on the stump?
He thinks because some of the remainers are telling the party to change their stance 2 a second referendum that equals labour being remain.
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Labour lost votes in both remain and leave areas. There is no easy answer or quick fix for them.
https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1132847063564259328
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Wilts.
We've just had a national election. Where getting on for 40% of the electorate voted. And Labour got what I think is its lowest vote share in a national election since 1918. And you say that suggesting there might be hard lessons for Labour to take from that is propaganda. I'll give the Far Left their due. They always did stick to their guns despite the evidence of the real world.
But, tell you what. I'll bite.
My take is that Labour is haemorrhaging votes to other centre-Left parties because of its refusal to take a Remain stand. Your take, I'm guessing, is that you can't draw any such conclusions. I assume what you mean is that you can't be sure that the people who voted last week are representative of the people who would vote in a General Election. That argument has some merit, as smaller turnout elections do tend to be more skewed towards people with passionate views but the question is, by how much.
Let's have a look at the numbers.
The 2017 GE turnout was 68.8% and Labour got 40.0% of the vote.
Last week's turnout was 36.7% and 14.1% of those voted Labour.
Let's assume Labour HASN'T lost support since 2017. For that to be the case, Labour's support among the 32.1% of folk who didn't vote last week would have to be 70%. That stretches credulity way beyond breaking point. So I think it's safe to assume that last week's election shows that Labour has lost a lot of support since 2017.
And where has it gone?
Well the LDs, Greens and ChUK combined last week polled about 6million on a 36.7% turnout, compared with 2.9million in 2017 on a 68.8% turnout.
Draw you own conclusions. I can see a great big bleeding obvious one with flashing lights on it.
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Selby
You're telling me you think every single person who voted Labour last week is in favour of Brexit? The 2017 manifesto is utterly irrelevant. Labour party policy on that subject was changed at the 2018 Conference. Although, admittedly, you wouldn't necessarily know that if you listen to Corbyn's inner circle.
But even if you DO choose that bizarre interpretation of the numbers, equating the sort of Brexit that Labour would accept to the sort that Farage wants makes me think you've been asleep these past three months.
You're making the daft mistake that I keep hammering on about. Assuming that all types of Brexit are one and the same thing, and that anyone who supports, say a Norway deal would choose No Deal over Remain if the Norway deal wasn't available.
It's nonsense from a simple logic point of view. And it flies in the face of literally dozens of polls from the past 3 years.
But here we are, three years on, making the same fundamental error that we had in the 2016 vote. Assuming that "Brexit" is a well-defined concept that everyone agrees on. If you would spend a moment to consider how ridiculous that is, I think the whole reason why we're in this shit tip would be a lot clearer for you.
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BST,
Just to be clear....what are you saying about the intentions of the 32.1% who voted Labour in a GE, but chose not vote in the EU election?
The EU elections lend themselves to proxy voting. It is seen by some as an opportunity to fire a shot over the bows, but they then revert back in a GE.
I would be very hesitant to draw a conclusion about a future GE on the basis of a frustration vote for the EU ticket!
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Albie.
I fully agree that it's not black and white. But to respond by simply ignoring the self-evident fact that Labour has a massive problem on its hands with lost Remain support is simply perverse.
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#Kier4PM
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BST,
The data does not support the claim that Labour has a "massive problem" with the Remain vote.
This is a narrative running in some circles, but it is not backed up with empirical evidence, or none that you have shown.
I will ask again........what assumption are you making about Labour supporters who did not vote in the EU election?
The thing that seems perverse to me is to assume Remainers will not vote Labour in a GE, even if they support the party on other issues.
It seems to me that when voters are faced with a manifesto for a GE, they will choose on a range of policy offers, and will likely hold a "Brexit" position in that context.
It is surely obvious that an early GE is needed to change the HoC numbers.
The public vote needs to be on a full policy offer, not a narrow Brexit position.
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BS
I really, really hope your job doesn't involve numbers.
How in God's name do you draw the conclusion that a large majority want No Deal?
BFYP
How on earth do you come to that conclusion? 76% of people voted for parties that explicitly want a No Deal Brexit or Re2/Revoke.
On an assumption which is what it is that they would prefer a deal over the other option. But yes I take your point the numbers dont lie.
If this was a gen election though (and they are totally different), we'd have a Brexit party government. Now that wont happen but if they aren't careful he Tories and labour could be finished.....
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Albie
That post depressingly sums up the conviction on the Left.
The Left doesn't WANT Brexit to dominate therefore they assume that it DOESN'T dominate.
Thing is, out there in the real world, it DOES dominate. And you can have the best other policies in the world, but they won't win an election if you are driving away millions of potential supporters to the LDs and Greens and even the no-hopers like ChUK.
I appreciate your conviction that voters will be savvy enough to vote Labour even if they think Labour will not back them on the central political issue of our lifetimes. I had similar thoughts in 2010, when it seemed a no-brainer to me that folk on the Left should vote Labour because the alternative was Austerity. Imagine my naive shock at the number of folk on the Left who didn't vote Labour as a matter of principle over the fact that Blair and Brown were Red Tories.
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Billy, when it comes to politics compared to you I am a thicko. Brexit to me has meant going short or long ( mainly short) on some investment opportunities thrown up by the political situation.
Personally it has been that good, let it roll on.
Albie I think the days of believing any parties manifesto's are now long gone, Farage will be able to rubbish and call lies to anything the tories or labour put in them.
If the Labour party make remaining part of those promises, the chances of their MP's in this area and other heartlands will be reduced considerably, and if the Brexit party stands in those constituencies they will have a good chance of taking their place, and could have the ballance of power with the tories in a brexit alliance.
That is the risk the Labour party would take.
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Selby. I don't like the thought of anyone being called thick. There are different takes.
I do agree that Labour is in a nightmarish situation and I've been saying this has been coming for two years. You're right that supporting Ref2 will alienate Lab Brexit supporters. Trouble is NOT supporting Ref2 will alienate Lab Remain supporters and according to the latest polling figures, they make up 75% of current Labour support.
Albie says it doesn't matter. Labour's leadership can go against party policy and the Members' overwhelming wishes and not vigorously pursue Ref2. That will piss off Lab Remainers but they'll still vote Labour anyway because...well because. Fascinatingly, I never hear that argument used the other way. If that was a valid argument, then presumably Lab Brexit supporters would still vote Lab if Labour came out for Ref2.
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Billy, Billy, Billy,
You are a fantasist of the first order. Not sure Politics is your first game!
Labour has been following party policy set out at Conference.
You have been arguing for a departure from policy because of your misunderstanding of how the party works.
I did not say it didn't matter what Labour did, I said the extent to which it mattered is open to question, because voting in an EU election is not the same as voting in a GE.
The reason Ref2 is less viable than earlier is precisely illustrated by the EU result.
Ref2 would deliver a split outcome on tribal lines. It would do nothing to change the numbers game in the HoC.
The most likely scenario is a no confidence vote forcing the new Tory leader to call a GE.
If a Boris or Raab wins the leadership, then remain Tories must consider the options to prevent a disastrous no deal.
Supporting a no confidence motion might be the only way that they can intervene.
All speculation, I know.
Still no answer to my question about the Labour voters absent from the EU vote would fall in a GE?
It seems an important question to me.
Evidential difficulty there, me old fruit?
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Again on Labour policy the assumption Billy is making is that the Lib Dems took Labour votes across the country. They didn't. Labour did badly in both remain and leave areas, the Lib Dems didn't do that well in leave areas.
https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1132989546386403328
In fact the Lib Dem votes was heavily concentrated in metropolitan areas/university towns and the Home Counties. They hardly registered in the Midlands, Yorkshire, Lancashire or the North East.
https://twitter.com/skwawkbox/status/1132994679602143242
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Wilts.
1) Right. So now we ARE drawing conclusions from this vote are we? Page one of the playbook - deny. Page two - if denial doesn't work, dissemble. Trust me. I used to know the playbook word for word.
2) On which theme, anyone relying of SkwakBox for a balanced take is well off down the dissembling road. Me, I prefer to look at the numbers myself rather than being told what to think by a neo-Stalinist Twitter feed run by someone in Len McCluskey's top pocket.
And here are the vote shares.
First one, Lab vote share. Second one, combined vote share if the avowedly pro-Remain parties (LD, Green, ChUK).
Yorks
16
31
North West
22
33
North East
19
29
That doesn't look like Remain parties struggling to make an impression in the Northern Heartlands.
If you want, we can drill down further into these post-industrial towns where Remain is apparently Blasphemy.
Just take the NE region. There, the combined vote of LD, Green and ChUK comfortably beat the Lab vote in Gateshead, Hartlepool, Middlesbrough, Redcar, South Tyneside and Sunderland.
I have this nagging feeling that Skwawkbox won't be pushing those numbers.
3) The Dr Jennings data are interesting although I'd make three points i) There's a clear slope to the Lab data best fit line. Looks like about -12.5 at the left hand side and -7.5 at the right. ii) But I'd say to him as one data analyst to another, that fitting a linear least-squares fit to data with outliers as wild as the ones at 40 and 62 on the x-axis, and a very big cluster of results that sit above the line is...debate able. iii) Far bigger than those nerdy points though is the implicit assumption you make that in Leave supporting areas, the supporters Labour lost last week were Leave supporters. I'm a traditional Labour supporter in a Leave area. I voted Remain in 2016 and I didn't vote for Labour last week. I could feel off a dozen friends and family who fit into the same category.
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BS
I really, really hope your job doesn't involve numbers.
How in God's name do you draw the conclusion that a large majority want No Deal?
BFYP
How on earth do you come to that conclusion? 76% of people voted for parties that explicitly want a No Deal Brexit or Re2/Revoke.
A majority in South yorkshire, and vast swathes of the country, yes.
Keep living in denial and blatantly ignore yet another democratic vote, if you want.
Me? I'll live in the real world.
-
BS.
Right. So we've got that established then. A large majority in the country as a whole DON'T want a No Deal Brexit. Agreed?
-
BS
I really, really hope your job doesn't involve numbers.
How in God's name do you draw the conclusion that a large majority want No Deal?
BFYP
How on earth do you come to that conclusion? 76% of people voted for parties that explicitly want a No Deal Brexit or Re2/Revoke.
A majority in South yorkshire, and vast swathes of the country, yes.
Keep living in denial and blatantly ignore yet another democratic vote, if you want.
Me? I'll live in the real world.
This remainiac mob are in denial. They will tell you black is white to suit their own agenda. It's a shame they are in the minority again. :)
-
Talking about painting Black as White and being in denial :-
best not to believe the Brexit Broadcasting Corporation , or tabloids
remain won
1. Isolated Brit @IsolatedBrit 1d1 day ago
More
Isolated Brit Retweeted Mike Galsworthy
Dear #BBC: I'm paying my licence fee, but if I want intelligent #Brexit analysis, I have to get it from a private citizen broadcasting from his living room.
Analysis: Brexit Party made almost zero gain over 2014 UKIP & assorted nationalist parties...
People's Vote UK and 4 others follow
Will Hutton @williamnhutton 20h20 hours ago
More
A week ago Remain hoped that if we pulled out all the stops and voted tactically we might get 36, even 37 Remain MEPs. We did it! We have 37. And even on a close definition of Remain excluding Labour we beat Leave. This is not a mandate for No Deal on Oct 31st - or even leaving.
-
Talking about painting Black as White and being in denial :-
best not to believe the Brexit Broadcasting Corporation , or tabloids
remain won
1. Isolated Brit @IsolatedBrit 1d1 day ago
More
Isolated Brit Retweeted Mike Galsworthy
Dear #BBC: I'm paying my licence fee, but if I want intelligent #Brexit analysis, I have to get it from a private citizen broadcasting from his living room.
Analysis: Brexit Party made almost zero gain over 2014 UKIP & assorted nationalist parties...
People's Vote UK and 4 others follow
Will Hutton @williamnhutton 20h20 hours ago
More
A week ago Remain hoped that if we pulled out all the stops and voted tactically we might get 36, even 37 Remain MEPs. We did it! We have 37. And even on a close definition of Remain excluding Labour we beat Leave. This is not a mandate for No Deal on Oct 31st - or even leaving.
Do you mean the Brexit Bashing Corporation the home of anti British, anti Christian, pro muslim, pro gay, pro EU thought?
-
BS.
Right. So we've got that established then. A large majority in the country as a whole DON'T want a No Deal Brexit. Agreed?
Don't agree, I dare say there are huge numbers who want no deal over a bad deal, or a deal they don't like.
So I still say there's a majority who would prefer a no deal, countrywide.
-
Right.
So all those polls that say nowhere remotely close to a majority want No Deal?
The vote last week where 35% voted for parties whose policy is No Deal and 65% voted for parties whose policies are expressedly NOT No Deal?
We ignore all that evidence, right?
-
BS.
Right. So we've got that established then. A large majority in the country as a whole DON'T want a No Deal Brexit. Agreed?
Don't agree, I dare say there are huge numbers who want no deal over a bad deal, or a deal they don't like.
So I still say there's a majority who would prefer a no deal, countrywide.
Correct. It's a shame none of our politicians can see this.
-
Right.
So all those polls that say nowhere remotely close to a majority want No Deal?
The vote last week where 35% voted for parties whose policy is No Deal and 65% voted for parties whose policies are expressedly NOT No Deal?
We ignore all that evidence, right?
At this stage people are still living in hope of getting a good deal. When that disappears, it will be no deal as the fall back option.
If you can't see that, your living in cloud cookoo land.
-
The WUMs are out in force today.
A majority want No Deal. :laugh:
-
Wilts.
1) Right. So now we ARE drawing conclusions from this vote are we? Page one of the playbook - deny. Page two - if denial doesn't work, dissemble. Trust me. I used to know the playbook word for word.
2) On which theme, anyone relying of SkwakBox for a balanced take is well off down the dissembling road. Me, I prefer to look at the numbers myself rather than being told what to think by a neo-Stalinist Twitter feed run by someone in Len McCluskey's top pocket.
What a load of claptrap and rubbish all you do (again) is show your own bias and prejudice.
Nowhere, ever, have I denied any results anywhere. I deny your analysis of the results and extrapolating them into a future GE because:
a) the turnout was 36.7%
b) several analysts have shown the uneven nature of them, particularly the Lib Dem vote.
c) in several leave areas where the Labour vote went down - the remain vote did not go sequentially up
Do you know what that Skwakbox link shows - an illustration of what I have just described, this composite of two maps showing the vote share taken from the BBC webpages. Thats propoganda now is it!
-
BS.
Right. So we've got that established then. A large majority in the country as a whole DON'T want a No Deal Brexit. Agreed?
Don't agree, I dare say there are huge numbers who want no deal over a bad deal, or a deal they don't like.
So I still say there's a majority who would prefer a no deal, countrywide.
Do you have any evidence for that or have I missed something? As I said in my post to Billy (twice) it is impossible to extrapolate from the EU election what a majority in the country want.
The turnout in the referendum was 72%. In the EU Election it was 36.7%. The only sensible, accurate conclusion you can take from that is that half the people who voted in the last referendum didn't vote last Thursday.
How do you know how this other 36% will vote? Because they certainly didn't support the Brexit Party last week?
-
BS.
Right. So we've got that established then. A large majority in the country as a whole DON'T want a No Deal Brexit. Agreed?
Don't agree, I dare say there are huge numbers who want no deal over a bad deal, or a deal they don't like.
So I still say there's a majority who would prefer a no deal, countrywide.
Do you have any evidence for that or have I missed something? As I said in my post to Billy (twice) it is impossible to extrapolate from the EU election what a majority in the country want.
The turnout in the referendum was 72%. In the EU Election it was 36.7%. The only sensible, accurate conclusion you can take from that is that half the people who voted in the last referendum didn't vote last Thursday.
How do you know how this other 36% will vote? Because they certainly didn't support the Brexit Party last week?
It's like polling though, you take a large number of people and see what the percentages are, so even if a larger percentage did vote it would be likely that the vote percentages we're still very similar, maybe with some slight changes here and there.
-
Wilts.
You consistently deny that we can draw any conclusions from polling. Then show poll figures which back up your argument.
You denied that we can draw any conclusions from last week's vote. Then showed analyses which purport to show an argument about where parties' support is.
It's from the same stable as your claim that you couldn't draw any conclusions about responsibility for Salisbury or Douma, followed by lots of arguments about why Russia probably wasn't responsible.
I fully understand an approach that is predicated upon questioning uncertain data, but if that's your approach then be consistent. Otherwise it looks like cherry picking.
Regarding SkwawkBox, I read it regularly. Which is why I know that it is a classic example of an organisation that presents highly skewed views. That image is a perfect example. It compares a dominant Leave party with one member of a fragmented Leave coalition. And I see that today it's doing hit pieces on Paul Mason for being a traitor to the cause for daring to question if the Dear Leaders' inner circle is infallible.
-
So, the election results have told us what we already knew.
There's a hardcore anti-EU group of 40-45% of the population. That group voted overwhelmingly for (Farage's) UKIP in 2014. They've voted overwhelmingly in similar numbers for (Farage's) BP this week.
That makes sense. Some folk will follow a Fuhrer...sorry...Leader wherever he takes them, because it's easier to give your support to a larger than life personality, than to get down an dirty with the detail of policy.
That much was expected and it happened. No big earthquake there
The really interesting thing is what's happened on the elsewhere.
The Tory and Lab votes have collapsed. Again, as we expected. But look where they have gone. There's been a far bigger increase in the Remain supporting parties' vote share (LD, Green, ChUK, PC, SNP) than there has in the vote share of Brexit + UKIP over UKIP last time.
That's a massive outcome.
The country has shifted strongly towards Remain supporting parties.
Just goes to show that both the Greens and Lib Dem’s do NOT believe in Democracy...
To try and overturn a referendum result that adhered to a democratic process is wrong....
the majority voted to leave the EU...
just because these democratically elected MPs appear to have no clue how to crawl , from under the EU stranglehold and actually do there jobs is not acceptable.....the voters voted and the message was clear...
We didn’t vote for a second referendum just in case the first one didn’t go as planned...
-
Billy
I shall repeat again I have never denied anything. I have told you what conclusions I draw from last weeks vote.
I also disagree with the conclusions you drew from that vote and given you evidence why - three times now.
Apologies if I am not allowed to disagree with you or that you dont like where evidence comes from but I am afraid it shows the Brexit Party took votes from Labour all across the country but the Lib Dems didnt. And a 36.7% turnout shows 33% of voters didn't support either option on offer last week.
-
Wilts.
You can disagree with me all you want. Equally, I can point out where you're being inconsistent or not interpreting the data correctly.
For example, claiming that the data "shows the Brexit Party took votes from Labour all across the country but the Lib Dems didnt" is such utter nonsense that it barely deserves answering. But since you appear to believe it, I suppose I ought to do.
Lord Ashcroft (yes, yes, I KNOW!) has a poll out today dissecting last week's results. About 1/8th of the people who voted Labour in 2017, and also voted last week, switched to BP. Compared to over 50% who switched to LD, Green or ChUK.
I agree that the movement from Lab to Remain supporting alternatives wasn't uniform across the country. But the absolute numbers are so large that, even where the movement was lowest, it was still greater than the numbers who moved from Lab to BP.
And THAT reflects the poll at the start of the year, saying that if Lab went into a GE supporting Ref2, they'd lose 2% support. Whereas is they went in supporting Brexit, they'd lose 16%.
You can put whatever spin you want and choose whatever detailed numbers you want. The big picture is massive and undeniable.
-
Talking about painting Black as White and being in denial :-
best not to believe the Brexit Broadcasting Corporation , or tabloids
remain won
1. Isolated Brit @IsolatedBrit 1d1 day ago
More
Isolated Brit Retweeted Mike Galsworthy
Dear #BBC: I'm paying my licence fee, but if I want intelligent #Brexit analysis, I have to get it from a private citizen broadcasting from his living room.
Analysis: Brexit Party made almost zero gain over 2014 UKIP & assorted nationalist parties...
People's Vote UK and 4 others follow
Will Hutton @williamnhutton 20h20 hours ago
More
A week ago Remain hoped that if we pulled out all the stops and voted tactically we might get 36, even 37 Remain MEPs. We did it! We have 37. And even on a close definition of Remain excluding Labour we beat Leave. This is not a mandate for No Deal on Oct 31st - or even leaving.
Do you mean the Brexit Bashing Corporation the home of anti British, anti Christian, pro muslim, pro gay, pro EU thought?
Yeah, they never give Nigel Farage any screen time, the bas**rds.
-
Talking about painting Black as White and being in denial :-
best not to believe the Brexit Broadcasting Corporation , or tabloids
remain won
1. Isolated Brit @IsolatedBrit 1d1 day ago
More
Isolated Brit Retweeted Mike Galsworthy
Dear #BBC: I'm paying my licence fee, but if I want intelligent #Brexit analysis, I have to get it from a private citizen broadcasting from his living room.
Analysis: Brexit Party made almost zero gain over 2014 UKIP & assorted nationalist parties...
People's Vote UK and 4 others follow
Will Hutton @williamnhutton 20h20 hours ago
More
A week ago Remain hoped that if we pulled out all the stops and voted tactically we might get 36, even 37 Remain MEPs. We did it! We have 37. And even on a close definition of Remain excluding Labour we beat Leave. This is not a mandate for No Deal on Oct 31st - or even leaving.
Do you mean the Brexit Bashing Corporation the home of anti British, anti Christian, pro muslim, pro gay, pro EU thought?
I'm not gay myself but what's wrong with being gay?
-
Let me get this right.
The BBC that runs live radio broadcasts of church services every day is anti-Christian?
Christ (!) there's some b*llocks poured out on here. It's like a word processor set onto automatic to churn out trite general moans.
-
So, the election results have told us what we already knew.
There's a hardcore anti-EU group of 40-45% of the population. That group voted overwhelmingly for (Farage's) UKIP in 2014. They've voted overwhelmingly in similar numbers for (Farage's) BP this week.
That makes sense. Some folk will follow a Fuhrer...sorry...Leader wherever he takes them, because it's easier to give your support to a larger than life personality, than to get down an dirty with the detail of policy.
That much was expected and it happened. No big earthquake there
The really interesting thing is what's happened on the elsewhere.
The Tory and Lab votes have collapsed. Again, as we expected. But look where they have gone. There's been a far bigger increase in the Remain supporting parties' vote share (LD, Green, ChUK, PC, SNP) than there has in the vote share of Brexit + UKIP over UKIP last time.
That's a massive outcome.
The country has shifted strongly towards Remain supporting parties.
Just goes to show that both the Greens and Lib Dem’s do NOT believe in Democracy...
To try and overturn a referendum result that adhered to a democratic process is wrong....
the majority voted to leave the EU...
just because these democratically elected MPs appear to have no clue how to crawl , from under the EU stranglehold and actually do there jobs is not acceptable.....the voters voted and the message was clear...
We didn’t vote for a second referendum just in case the first one didn’t go as planned...
I think you must have have missed the bit of conversation that asked how has Remain has stopped wrexit?
-
Talking about painting Black as White and being in denial :-
best not to believe the Brexit Broadcasting Corporation , or tabloids
remain won
1. Isolated Brit @IsolatedBrit 1d1 day ago
More
Isolated Brit Retweeted Mike Galsworthy
Dear #BBC: I'm paying my licence fee, but if I want intelligent #Brexit analysis, I have to get it from a private citizen broadcasting from his living room.
Analysis: Brexit Party made almost zero gain over 2014 UKIP & assorted nationalist parties...
People's Vote UK and 4 others follow
Will Hutton @williamnhutton 20h20 hours ago
More
A week ago Remain hoped that if we pulled out all the stops and voted tactically we might get 36, even 37 Remain MEPs. We did it! We have 37. And even on a close definition of Remain excluding Labour we beat Leave. This is not a mandate for No Deal on Oct 31st - or even leaving.
Do you mean the Brexit Bashing Corporation the home of anti British, anti Christian, pro muslim, pro gay, pro EU thought?
I'm not gay myself but what's wrong with being gay?
Nothing, but I don't want it rammed down my throat all the time, or anywhere else for that matter!
-
So, the election results have told us what we already knew.
There's a hardcore anti-EU group of 40-45% of the population. That group voted overwhelmingly for (Farage's) UKIP in 2014. They've voted overwhelmingly in similar numbers for (Farage's) BP this week.
That makes sense. Some folk will follow a Fuhrer...sorry...Leader wherever he takes them, because it's easier to give your support to a larger than life personality, than to get down an dirty with the detail of policy.
That much was expected and it happened. No big earthquake there
The really interesting thing is what's happened on the elsewhere.
The Tory and Lab votes have collapsed. Again, as we expected. But look where they have gone. There's been a far bigger increase in the Remain supporting parties' vote share (LD, Green, ChUK, PC, SNP) than there has in the vote share of Brexit + UKIP over UKIP last time.
That's a massive outcome.
The country has shifted strongly towards Remain supporting parties.
Just goes to show that both the Greens and Lib Dem’s do NOT believe in Democracy...
To try and overturn a referendum result that adhered to a democratic process is wrong....
the majority voted to leave the EU...
just because these democratically elected MPs appear to have no clue how to crawl , from under the EU stranglehold and actually do there jobs is not acceptable.....the voters voted and the message was clear...
We didn’t vote for a second referendum just in case the first one didn’t go as planned...
I think you must have have missed the bit of conversation that asked how has Remain has stopped wrexit?
I didn’t want to dissect that deep and get embroiled in stats and suppositions, ....
Any one who can say that the greens plus Lib Dems euro election result equates to a “ remain vote” is deluded.....
The referendum happened
The result was passed
We have elected to leave the EU
I don’t remember a caveat stating that if we voted to leave, actually means we want to remain!
I personally would welcome a new referendum just to see the faces of those who think it’s a foregone conclusion that the scaremongering has worked.....lol
-
And what scaremongering is that?
-
Get the' sens to Bentley. There's still food on the shelves and it's almost June.
-
So, the election results have told us what we already knew.
There's a hardcore anti-EU group of 40-45% of the population. That group voted overwhelmingly for (Farage's) UKIP in 2014. They've voted overwhelmingly in similar numbers for (Farage's) BP this week.
That makes sense. Some folk will follow a Fuhrer...sorry...Leader wherever he takes them, because it's easier to give your support to a larger than life personality, than to get down an dirty with the detail of policy.
That much was expected and it happened. No big earthquake there
The really interesting thing is what's happened on the elsewhere.
The Tory and Lab votes have collapsed. Again, as we expected. But look where they have gone. There's been a far bigger increase in the Remain supporting parties' vote share (LD, Green, ChUK, PC, SNP) than there has in the vote share of Brexit + UKIP over UKIP last time.
That's a massive outcome.
The country has shifted strongly towards Remain supporting parties.
Just goes to show that both the Greens and Lib Dem’s do NOT believe in Democracy...
To try and overturn a referendum result that adhered to a democratic process is wrong....
the majority voted to leave the EU...
just because these democratically elected MPs appear to have no clue how to crawl , from under the EU stranglehold and actually do there jobs is not acceptable.....the voters voted and the message was clear...
We didn’t vote for a second referendum just in case the first one didn’t go as planned...
I think you must have have missed the bit of conversation that asked how has Remain has stopped wrexit?
I didn’t want to dissect that deep and get embroiled in stats and suppositions, ....
Any one who can say that the greens plus Lib Dems euro election result equates to a “ remain vote” is deluded.....
The referendum happened
The result was passed
We have elected to leave the EU
I don’t remember a caveat stating that if we voted to leave, actually means we want to remain!
I personally would welcome a new referendum just to see the faces of those who think it’s a foregone conclusion that the scaremongering has worked.....lol
The earlier conversation was about the failure of wrexiteers to complete the task and that it wasn't Remain that stopped you.
-
Ahh Glyn.
That faux naivete!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPlcT-dBdtE (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPlcT-dBdtE)