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Viking Chat => Viking Chat => Topic started by: DonnyOsmond on July 03, 2019, 08:46:43 pm

Title: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: DonnyOsmond on July 03, 2019, 08:46:43 pm
Just seen this on Twitter. From the shots he's making he should be getting around a similar number of goals per game as Marquis gets.  :blink:

Surely we can do better?

(https://i.imgur.com/4jnRObY_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium)

Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: IDM on July 03, 2019, 08:57:28 pm
Yes we can do better, those colours in that chart do not do it any favours..

Alfie May hasn’t been our best scorer yet he continues to make good contributions.
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: Bentley Bullet on July 03, 2019, 09:04:03 pm
If you compare a player who in your mind can do no wrong, to a player who you think can do no right, your opinion is bound to be questionable.
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: donny dave on July 03, 2019, 10:43:25 pm
So what is the point of this thread, to have a go at a ROVERS Player.
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: Chris Black come back on July 03, 2019, 10:55:24 pm
He isn’t very good at finishing and that if anything appears to have got worse the longer he has been with us.

On the flip side, he works hard, presses, has a good attitude and at least gets in good positions.

He does this season need to prove that he has at least improved his finishing/goals ratio. At present for someone playing in front three his return is very poor.
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: Bentley Bullet on July 03, 2019, 11:06:02 pm
He was our joint third highest scorer last season!
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: Canadian Rover on July 03, 2019, 11:07:35 pm
Good squad player. Puts in a shift and is creative still making progress in the pro game. I'd like to see a chart on £ per goal.
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: Draytonian III on July 03, 2019, 11:11:34 pm
Dear oh dear, isn’t there pubs open where you live, next time you feel so negative either go for a pint or go on the Notts County forum, either way it should cheer you up for an hour or so .
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: Retdon1 on July 03, 2019, 11:12:53 pm
Not good enough for league 1 level in my opinion. Can’t fault the lads work rate but ability wise, not at the level we need
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: SouthStandFan on July 03, 2019, 11:16:26 pm
Seems like a nice guy and gives his all but I agree he is not League 1 standard in my opinion
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: Bentley Bullet on July 03, 2019, 11:18:31 pm
He was our joint third highest scorer last season!
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: SouthStandFan on July 03, 2019, 11:22:39 pm
four of seven goals were in a one sided FA cup game against Chorley

this is a statistical anomaly, not a true representation of his average performance.
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: 5minstogo on July 03, 2019, 11:30:56 pm
He's improving year on year. He's under contract so we get to see what a new manager thinks. Happy 26th birthday Alfie!
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: Bentley Bullet on July 04, 2019, 12:10:28 am
four of seven goals were in a one sided FA cup game against Chorley

this is a statistical anomaly, not a true representation of his average performance.

You can look at his record as negatively as you want, although I find that sort of treatment from a Rovers fan about a Rovers player quite a glaring anomaly of loyalty.

A player whose starts/minutes on the pitch is limited to such 'trivial' games can only do his best in them, and as joint third top scorer May's 'best' was surely good enough.
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: RoversAlias on July 04, 2019, 12:47:43 am
I think he's done well when played wide of the front three at times, look at the way he set us away for what was nearly the winning goal at Charlton. He has good movement, energy and presses superbly well. His only real flaw is his finishing, it can be excellent (goal v Blackpool in the cup for instance) but just isn't consistent enough. Let's hope that improves this season.
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: PDX_Rover on July 04, 2019, 02:50:02 am
Alfie’s developed in my view. It can happen.
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: phil old leake on July 04, 2019, 05:39:39 am
If only every player on the pitch had his energy and enthusiasm
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: SouthStandFan on July 04, 2019, 07:02:03 am
four of seven goals were in a one sided FA cup game against Chorley

this is a statistical anomaly, not a true representation of his average performance.

You can look at his record as negatively as you want, although I find that sort of treatment from a Rovers fan about a Rovers player quite a glaring anomaly of loyalty.

A player whose starts/minutes on the pitch is limited to such 'trivial' games can only do his best in them, and as joint third top scorer May's 'best' was surely good enough.

Is it the norm on this forum then that whenever you dare to show anything less than high praise for a player or the club you are deemed disloyal or not a true fan.

It has happened two or three times to me and I've only made a handful or posts. Apparently because I don't rate Alfie May I'm disloyal, because I don't agree to double the cost of bronze membership I'm not willing to fund the club.

The club and players do not warrant blind loyalty. They are open to critique. Yes there has been massive leaps in where we are as a club in the last 10-20 years, but that doesn't mean it is perfect and I wish we could discuss it without being accused of not being a true fan.
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: DonnyOsmond on July 04, 2019, 07:19:38 am
I didn't realise all we could post was positive stuff on here.

The discussion is about how he should really be averaging similar goals per game to Marquis.
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: RobTheRover on July 04, 2019, 07:26:23 am
four of seven goals were in a one sided FA cup game against Chorley

this is a statistical anomaly, not a true representation of his average performance.

You can look at his record as negatively as you want, although I find that sort of treatment from a Rovers fan about a Rovers player quite a glaring anomaly of loyalty.

A player whose starts/minutes on the pitch is limited to such 'trivial' games can only do his best in them, and as joint third top scorer May's 'best' was surely good enough.

Is it the norm on this forum then that whenever you dare to show anything less than high praise for a player or the club you are deemed disloyal or not a true fan.

It has happened two or three times to me and I've only made a handful or posts. Apparently because I don't rate Alfie May I'm disloyal, because I don't agree to double the cost of bronze membership I'm not willing to fund the club.

The club and players do not warrant blind loyalty. They are open to critique. Yes there has been massive leaps in where we are as a club in the last 10-20 years, but that doesn't mean it is perfect and I wish we could discuss it without being accused of not being a true fan.

No, it's a forum. Things get debated. People will have other opinions to you.
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: SouthStandFan on July 04, 2019, 08:17:44 am
four of seven goals were in a one sided FA cup game against Chorley

this is a statistical anomaly, not a true representation of his average performance.

You can look at his record as negatively as you want, although I find that sort of treatment from a Rovers fan about a Rovers player quite a glaring anomaly of loyalty.

A player whose starts/minutes on the pitch is limited to such 'trivial' games can only do his best in them, and as joint third top scorer May's 'best' was surely good enough.

Is it the norm on this forum then that whenever you dare to show anything less than high praise for a player or the club you are deemed disloyal or not a true fan.

It has happened two or three times to me and I've only made a handful or posts. Apparently because I don't rate Alfie May I'm disloyal, because I don't agree to double the cost of bronze membership I'm not willing to fund the club.

The club and players do not warrant blind loyalty. They are open to critique. Yes there has been massive leaps in where we are as a club in the last 10-20 years, but that doesn't mean it is perfect and I wish we could discuss it without being accused of not being a true fan.

No, it's a forum. Things get debated. People will have other opinions to you.

You're completely missing my point. I've tried to display a different opinion and the answer on more than one occassion hasn't been "I disagree, here's why....". It has been "you must not be a loyal rovers fan who wants the best for the club"


I thought it was a discussion forum not an obsession forum that's all I'm saying.
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: sedwardsdrfc on July 04, 2019, 08:24:20 am
There is such thing as a good squad player and May is one of those he has a great attitude and does cause teams problems when he comes off the bench (ok a few more goals would be great). Players like him and Blair have a big impact on the squad as a whole even if they aren't in the team. It's easy to underestimate that value
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: DonnyBazR0ver on July 04, 2019, 08:26:11 am
It doesn't matter a jot what we think anyway. I'm sure the manager will assess Alfie and make his own mind up. I'm sure for this reason, we'll see Alfie given a chance. That may also be true of Kiwomya and every other player in the squad.

Alfie does alot of good things on the pitch but just lacks a little on the conversion rate. If he can just put a few more away, we'll all be happy.
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: DonnyOsmond on July 04, 2019, 08:40:06 am
It doesn't matter a jot what we think anyway. I'm sure the manager will assess Alfie and make his own mind up. I'm sure for this reason, we'll see Alfie given a chance. That may also be true of Kiwomya and every other player in the squad.

Alfie does alot of good things on the pitch but just lacks a little on the conversion rate. If he can just put a few more away, we'll all be happy.

Yeah if he got some shooting practise in he could be quality. He's clearly getting in the right positions and getting shots off from that xG, just needs to convert them.
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: NickDRFC on July 04, 2019, 08:50:36 am
It doesn't matter a jot what we think anyway. I'm sure the manager will assess Alfie and make his own mind up. I'm sure for this reason, we'll see Alfie given a chance. That may also be true of Kiwomya and every other player in the squad.

Alfie does alot of good things on the pitch but just lacks a little on the conversion rate. If he can just put a few more away, we'll all be happy.

If it doesn’t matter what we think then wants the point in discussing any Rovers players or matters at all?!

If we were starting with Alfie come August I’d say we’d be unlikely to be in the play off mix again, but as others have said he’s a good option to bring off the bench with his energy and tenacity. Although his finishing is still weak I actually think other technical aspects of his game (passing, movement, first touch) have improved a decent amount since he first arrived.
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: the vicar on July 04, 2019, 08:56:29 am
They should l
So what is the point of this thread, to have a go at a ROVERS Player.
they should leave Alfie alone the lad tries his best and in truth he does worry teams when he comes off the bench so just let him play and see what he can do
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: IDM on July 04, 2019, 09:13:06 am
If Alfie May had been signed to be the club's leading striker then yes, the OP's argument would have more validity, or if we are expecting Alfie to take over the leading role assuming Marquis leaves this window.

Does anyone realistically expect we would have two strikers scoring at the rate Marquis has done? 

Alfie May brings other benefits to the game than scoring goals, he is similar to Marquis in his tenacity and workrate.  Don't forget May joined us from the 8th tier where he was prolific, so is he going to be the same at the 3rd tier? 

We need a squad where players can come on and affect the game.  We need players who can effectively be the main striker when others are rested such as in the Checkatrade or vs lower level teams in the cup.

We should judge May and any other player on the entirety of their contributions to the squad perhaps?

I also think the negative response to the OP may be due to that we haven't kicked a ball in anger in the new season yet - who's to say that May won't get 10-15 quality league 1 goals this time around??
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: DonnyBazR0ver on July 04, 2019, 09:15:41 am
It doesn't matter a jot what we think anyway. I'm sure the manager will assess Alfie and make his own mind up. I'm sure for this reason, we'll see Alfie given a chance. That may also be true of Kiwomya and every other player in the squad.

Alfie does alot of good things on the pitch but just lacks a little on the conversion rate. If he can just put a few more away, we'll all be happy.

If it doesn’t matter what we think then wants the point in discussing any Rovers players or matters at all?!

If we were starting with Alfie come August I’d say we’d be unlikely to be in the play off mix again, but as others have said he’s a good option to bring off the bench with his energy and tenacity. Although his finishing is still weak I actually think other technical aspects of his game (passing, movement, first touch) have improved a decent amount since he first arrived.

Agree, it's when people start arguing amongst themselves to prove a point as fact rather than an opinion, often throwing insults around. It becomes more about them than the subject.
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: drfchound on July 04, 2019, 07:22:39 pm
four of seven goals were in a one sided FA cup game against Chorley

this is a statistical anomaly, not a true representation of his average performance.





All of his goals count in the seasons tally, irrespective of how and when they come.

In the women’s World Cup, Alex Morgan has scored seven so far for the USA.
Five of those came in a very one sided game against Thailand.
If she is still the leading scorer after the Final maybe they should give the Golden Boot to Ellen White because her goals were more evenly spread out.
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: Danmckay456 on July 04, 2019, 07:24:23 pm
A player should work hard for the team that’s his job , And as a striker he will always be judged on goals a big season for Alfie next season could be make or break as a rovers player
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: Bentley Bullet on July 04, 2019, 08:10:17 pm
A player should work hard for the team that’s his job , And as a striker he will always be judged on goals a big season for Alfie next season could be make or break as a rovers player
But he's not being judged on goals by some in this debate, is he?
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: SouthStandFan on July 04, 2019, 09:38:14 pm
four of seven goals were in a one sided FA cup game against Chorley

this is a statistical anomaly, not a true representation of his average performance.





All of his goals count in the seasons tally, irrespective of how and when they come.

In the women’s World Cup, Alex Morgan has scored seven so far for the USA.
Five of those came in a very one sided game against Thailand.
If she is still the leading scorer after the Final maybe they should give the Golden Boot to Ellen White because her goals were more evenly spread out.

Not at all. People are saying "but he's our third top scorer", which I'm saying is not an impressive claim and does not validate him as a decent player. I like the guy. I agree he has a good work ethic. So would I if rovers gave me his wages! But he's getting paid to finish chances and he's evidently, factually, statistically not doing it at the level expected of a league one striker.
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: sha66y on July 04, 2019, 10:05:47 pm
Perhaps he’s just not a striker in the broader sense of the word, but an attacking midfielder that scores on occasion..... and knows how to get in the face of the opposition creating opportunities for the goal scorer..

I actually like to see Alfie on the pitch, he adds something that the opposition don’t like
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: DonnyOsmond on July 04, 2019, 10:06:17 pm
four of seven goals were in a one sided FA cup game against Chorley

this is a statistical anomaly, not a true representation of his average performance.

Based just on League One games. FA Cup not included.
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: SouthStandFan on July 04, 2019, 10:21:06 pm
So he got three league goals in a season? And you're using that as a measure of being a valid League One striker?
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: DonnyOsmond on July 04, 2019, 10:44:56 pm
So he got three league goals in a season? And you're using that as a measure of being a valid League One striker?

Isn't it just 2 L1 goals he got? 9 in the cups, 4 in the FA Cup, 4 in JPT and 1 in EFL Cup.
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: SouthStandFan on July 04, 2019, 10:55:37 pm
I can only find a total of 7... Not sure and it is by the by I suppose. I don't want to denigrate the lad as like I have said I think he is a good guy and a hard worker.

I can see him doing better in league 2. 
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: Canadian Rover on July 05, 2019, 12:21:24 am
Can't quite believe we have a thread slating a player before the season starts. :headbang: and to see what he works like with a new manager...my God some people see a half empty glass.
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: andyst79 on July 05, 2019, 06:45:14 am
Hopefully we will see further improvement from him next season. With a new manager we could potentially play a different way or with a new system & without Marquis as the focal point of the attack we need someone to step up to the plate. Hopefully we can have a couple of strikers that maybe compliment each other well & can weigh in with the goals between them.
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: DonnyOsmond on July 05, 2019, 08:03:17 am
Can't quite believe we have a thread slating a player before the season starts. :headbang: and to see what he works like with a new manager...my God some people see a half empty glass.

No. It's a thread about a stat from one of our players from the season that's just finished.
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: phil old leake on July 05, 2019, 02:05:03 pm
He might improve his goal record with a good run of starts.  I’d like to see him start and do his normal last 15 minutes thing at the start of a game.  A lot of full backs won’t like being ran out from minute 1
Title: Re: Alfie May's Expected Goals
Post by: WheatleyRover on July 06, 2019, 10:25:08 am
Love Alfie May one of the hardest working players we have