Viking Supporters Co-operative
Viking Chat => Off Topic => Topic started by: BillyStubbsTears on November 29, 2019, 02:36:07 pm
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10 days ago, the average of the last 5 polls was
Con 43
Lab 29.4
Now it's
Con 42
Lab 33.2
There's not a chance in a million of a Labour majority. But the general consensus is if the gap is down to 5-7 points, Johnson won't have a majority either.
All to play for.
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... and (broken record) 42 % of the vote would get him / them 260 - 270 ish Seats which would not be anywhere near the balance of Seats held by the rest if we used a PR type vote
One for the future but lets hope (well I personally hope) for a neck and neck hung Parliament so after all Pinocchios wheeling dealing conspiring and evading we end up almost as we were when he called the Election he did not want :evil: :evil: :evil:
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Lib Dem to labour is the shift probably. They're having a poor campaign. Stopping Brexit completely was just stupid from them. People's vote or honour it.
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Agree
They missed a trick by panicking with Johnson desperately trying to "engineer" a GE. Looked like he had run out of methods when Swinson threw him a lifeline and probably handed us all B****t after all
All they had to do (after Pinocchio had got his deal through HOC) was to say OK OK we will go ahead and pass the deal again if you put it to the people for a confirmatory vote
a Your Deal
b Remain
We could have now been relaxing / luxuriating with a decision made once and for all and "getting it" all sorted
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Agree
They missed a trick by panicking with Johnson desperately trying to "engineer" a GE. Looked like he had run out of methods when Swinson threw him a lifeline and probably handed us all B****t after all
All they had to do (after Pinocchio had got his deal through HOC) was to say OK OK we will go ahead and pass the deal again if you put it to the people for a confirmatory vote
a Your Deal
b Remain
We could have now been relaxing / luxuriating with a decision made once and for all and "getting it" all sorted
It's OK Wolfie; we'll be getting it all sorted very soon.
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Lib Dem to labour is the shift probably. They're having a poor campaign. Stopping Brexit completely was just stupid from them. People's vote or honour it.
One of the odd things about this GE has been seeing people change their political allegiances. A relative who’s lifelong Labour is now voting Brexit Party and another fella at work who’s voted (and been a member of) the Lib Dems since 1992 is now moving to Labour.
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Lib Dem to labour is the shift probably. They're having a poor campaign. Stopping Brexit completely was just stupid from them. People's vote or honour it.
One of the odd things about this GE has been seeing people change their political allegiances. A relative who’s lifelong Labour is now voting Brexit Party and another fella at work who’s voted (and been a member of) the Lib Dems since 1992 is now moving to Labour.
Good observation Herbert. Most lifelong Labour voters I know, many of them ex-miners like myself, say they will either be voting BP or abstaining.
Some of them say they won't ever vote Labour again in their lives.
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Could be a right mess
I have postal voted for Labour in Don Valley despite the present MP being one I do not agree with in any way shape or form
Pundits / pollsters say she is in danger of losing her seat but surely she is a shoe in ?
There will be all those who voted Leave and who will reward her loyalty to their views in Parliament AND those like me who still want to Remain and MUST vote to ensure the Tories do not oust Labour in the one Constituency I can vote in
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There was a fascinating poll came out the other day from Kantar
CON: 43% (-2)
LAB: 32% (+5)
LD: 14% (-2)
it was fascinating because they showed their unweighted polling (Billy & I discussed this the other day) which was
CON: 36% (-4)
LAB: 35% (+5)
LD: 16% (-)
They also say that 20% of the public are still undecided.
There is not a chance in a million of a Labour majority ehh....
https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1199321058488266763
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Wilts.
I pointed out to you at the time that you had totally misread that poll.
Those 36-35-16 figures were NOT the unweighted raw data. Those were the weighted proportion of their responders who had voted for each of the parties at the 2017 GE. They were showing that they were selecting and weighting in such a way that they had a representative sample in terms of previous votes.
It's bad enough that there's so much fakery coming from the other side without you inadvertently adding to it.
EDIT.
For the record my memory was wrong. We didn't talk about a Kantar poll, we talked about a ComRes one.
https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=274705.msg923104#msg923104
I haven't seen that Kantar one. I'll dig it out this weekend if I have time.
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Worth a look Billy.
It doesn't mean the 'ordinary' polls are wrong - but it does show there is a lot more uncertainty around than the pollsters - or more accurately the media - are leading us to believe.
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You DO accept that your man Leftie Stats was totally wrong about that ComRes poll?
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Yes I don't think that ComRes poll was showing the unweighted results (as you rightly pointed out) unlike this Kantar one. Which makes this Kantar one a lot more interesting. The data tables are on the link.
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Yes I don't think that ComRes poll was showing the unweighted results (as you rightly pointed out) unlike this Kantar one. Which makes this Kantar one a lot more interesting. The data tables are on the link.
There is only one poll that counts it's on the 12 th December.
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Still narrowing.
https://mobile.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1200824832042164225
Getting close to Hung Parliament territory.
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Still narrowing.
https://mobile.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1200824832042164225
Getting close to Hung Parliament territory.
Who on Earth are Britain Elects? Some of those tweets smack of desperation.
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They collate the polling results from different companies. That a problem SS? Collecting facts?
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They collate the polling results from different companies. That a problem SS? Collecting facts?
Then why are they different to all the other polls, who by the way are collecting facts?
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Steve let it be, they had no sleep last night after the polls yesterday, let them have a bit of an uplift.
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What in God's name are you on about?
That Twitter feed collects and publishes EVERY poll.
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BST is correct it does. The thing with polls is one tells you next to nothing often. But grouped together they show trends. Watch the trends not them in isolation.
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Which is precisely what I've been saying BFYP.
Two weeks ago, the typical average of the polls had the Tories 12-13 points ahead.
The last six have had Tory leads of
11
7
11
7
8
6
No matter what you think of individual polls, the trend is clearly that Labour is narrowing the gap. If that continues at that rate for the final 10-11 days, we're looking at a hung parliament.
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You might want to add tonight's 15 then which in itself was a slight narrowing on before.
Of course it is an odd election so hard to read how it may fall in a lot of close seats thus as you say 1% movement could be all the difference.
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Yep BFYP.
There's a 13 and a 15 tonight from the two pollsters who have been consistently giving the Tories very large leads. But as you say, the 15 has come down quite a way from 19 last week.
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YouGov poll just out gives 9 point Tory lead - Labour up 2.
Which if my maths are correct means that in the polls conducted over the past week the Tory lead averages 9 points.
Just prior to polling day in 2017 the average was 7 points.
Just saying like
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Me
Personally will be glad when the whole thing is over, nothing much will change most people’s lives whoever wins,let’s just hope whatever the outcome our country becomes a better place
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Amen to that
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YouGov poll just out gives 9 point Tory lead - Labour up 2.
Which if my maths are correct means that in the polls conducted over the past week the Tory lead averages 9 points.
Just prior to polling day in 2017 the average was 7 points.
Just saying like
YouGov poll just out gives 9 point Tory lead - Labour up 2.
Which if my maths are correct means that in the polls conducted over the past week the Tory lead averages 9 points.
Just prior to polling day in 2017 the average was 7 points.
Just saying like
Labour did superbly well in the last two weeks last time, can they do it again? Maybe so, itll be a tall order. The story really seems to be lib dems moving to labour largely, the lib dems are doing really poorly and that's a huge help for labour really. The lib dems offer isnt bad but it doesn't appeal enough to anyone unless you're a die hard 100% remainer. I like a number of their policies but in some they go too far. This is what Corbyn was after with his brexit referendum, it entices enough people back given labours other policies.
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YouGov poll just out gives 9 point Tory lead - Labour up 2.
Which if my maths are correct means that in the polls conducted over the past week the Tory lead averages 9 points.
Just prior to polling day in 2017 the average was 7 points.
Just saying like
YouGov poll just out gives 9 point Tory lead - Labour up 2.
Which if my maths are correct means that in the polls conducted over the past week the Tory lead averages 9 points.
Just prior to polling day in 2017 the average was 7 points.
Just saying like
Labour did superbly well in the last two weeks last time, can they do it again? Maybe so, itll be a tall order. The story really seems to be lib dems moving to labour largely, the lib dems are doing really poorly and that's a huge help for labour really. The lib dems offer isnt bad but it doesn't appeal enough to anyone unless you're a die hard 100% remainer. I like a number of their policies but in some they go too far. This is what Corbyn was after with his brexit referendum, it entices enough people back given labours other policies.
Jo Swinson on the radio earlier today has said that she’d oppose any efforts by a Labour government to carry out a renationalisation programme. This is exactly the type of thing that will dissuade many Labour supporters from moving to the Lib Dem’s. The Lib Dem’s are more like the Tories than they’d ever care to admit.
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Some more trends from Britain Elects.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1200862658515406849?s=20
Both Tories and Labour going up at the expense of the LDs and Brexit Party.
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YouGov poll just out gives 9 point Tory lead - Labour up 2.
Which if my maths are correct means that in the polls conducted over the past week the Tory lead averages 9 points.
Just prior to polling day in 2017 the average was 7 points.
Just saying like
YouGov poll just out gives 9 point Tory lead - Labour up 2.
Which if my maths are correct means that in the polls conducted over the past week the Tory lead averages 9 points.
Just prior to polling day in 2017 the average was 7 points.
Just saying like
Labour did superbly well in the last two weeks last time, can they do it again? Maybe so, itll be a tall order. The story really seems to be lib dems moving to labour largely, the lib dems are doing really poorly and that's a huge help for labour really. The lib dems offer isnt bad but it doesn't appeal enough to anyone unless you're a die hard 100% remainer. I like a number of their policies but in some they go too far. This is what Corbyn was after with his brexit referendum, it entices enough people back given labours other policies.
Jo Swinson on the radio earlier today has said that she’d oppose any efforts by a Labour government to carry out a renationalisation programme. This is exactly the type of thing that will dissuade many Labour supporters from moving to the Lib Dem’s. The Lib Dem’s are more like the Tories than they’d ever care to admit.
It wouldn't surprise me all that greatly if, in the event of a Hung Parliament, the LDs cut a deal with the Tories (Confidence and Supply rather than Coalition) on the condition that there is another Brexit Referendum, ie Johnson's Deal vs. Remain.
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That would suit me AND I can see it happening IF a big IF it ends hung
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It would greatly surprise me if the Tories cut any deal with anyone that involves a 2nd referendum. Have you not read the posts by the Tory/Brexit supporters on this site they would go mad. The Tory Party would disintegrate.
If you are thinking of voting LD on that premise - get real lads/lassies - on both the LD's and Tories
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YouGov poll just out gives 9 point Tory lead - Labour up 2.
Which if my maths are correct means that in the polls conducted over the past week the Tory lead averages 9 points.
Just prior to polling day in 2017 the average was 7 points.
Just saying like
YouGov poll just out gives 9 point Tory lead - Labour up 2.
Which if my maths are correct means that in the polls conducted over the past week the Tory lead averages 9 points.
Just prior to polling day in 2017 the average was 7 points.
Just saying like
Labour did superbly well in the last two weeks last time, can they do it again? Maybe so, itll be a tall order. The story really seems to be lib dems moving to labour largely, the lib dems are doing really poorly and that's a huge help for labour really. The lib dems offer isnt bad but it doesn't appeal enough to anyone unless you're a die hard 100% remainer. I like a number of their policies but in some they go too far. This is what Corbyn was after with his brexit referendum, it entices enough people back given labours other policies.
Jo Swinson on the radio earlier today has said that she’d oppose any efforts by a Labour government to carry out a renationalisation programme. This is exactly the type of thing that will dissuade many Labour supporters from moving to the Lib Dem’s. The Lib Dem’s are more like the Tories than they’d ever care to admit.
And ultimately this is why it wont happen. Even if labour get a sniff on a hung parliament the lib dems etc would never let them get half the things through. Labour need a majority to put things through, which they have next to no chance of.
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It would greatly surprise me if the Tories cut any deal with anyone that involves a 2nd referendum. Have you not read the posts by the Tory/Brexit supporters on this site they would go mad. The Tory Party would disintegrate.
If you are thinking of voting LD on that premise - get real lads/lassies - on both the LD's and Tories
You'd think so, but consider the alternatives. If the GE results in a Hung Parliament it's very unlikely that Johnson's Deal would get through Parliament unamended. Alternatively you could have a minority Labour Government, but Corbyn would then go and negotiate his own deal. Most Brexiteers would probably consider that to be a different flavour of Remain, and that would be put against Actual Remain in a Referendum.
At least a Tory-LD pact would allow the Tories to set the terms of the Referendum, ie Johnson's Deal (which the Tory Brexiteers seem prepared to stomach) vs. Remain.
All hypothetical of course, but not out of the question, I'll submit.
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YouGov poll just out gives 9 point Tory lead - Labour up 2.
Which if my maths are correct means that in the polls conducted over the past week the Tory lead averages 9 points.
Just prior to polling day in 2017 the average was 7 points.
Just saying like
YouGov poll just out gives 9 point Tory lead - Labour up 2.
Which if my maths are correct means that in the polls conducted over the past week the Tory lead averages 9 points.
Just prior to polling day in 2017 the average was 7 points.
Just saying like
Labour did superbly well in the last two weeks last time, can they do it again? Maybe so, itll be a tall order. The story really seems to be lib dems moving to labour largely, the lib dems are doing really poorly and that's a huge help for labour really. The lib dems offer isnt bad but it doesn't appeal enough to anyone unless you're a die hard 100% remainer. I like a number of their policies but in some they go too far. This is what Corbyn was after with his brexit referendum, it entices enough people back given labours other policies.
Jo Swinson on the radio earlier today has said that she’d oppose any efforts by a Labour government to carry out a renationalisation programme. This is exactly the type of thing that will dissuade many Labour supporters from moving to the Lib Dem’s. The Lib Dem’s are more like the Tories than they’d ever care to admit.
She's doing because it's her only electoral possibility.
The LD's have (from memory) 20 of their top 25 targets in Tory held seats. So they need to attract centrist Tory Remain type voters. So she's appealing to them by saying she'd clip Corbyn's wings if the LDs end up supporting a minority Lab Govt.
On the moral side, if Lab get 36% of the vote and 240/650 seats, there is no way they have a mandate to carry out their most ambitious policies.
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"Jo Swinson says she won’t back Corbyn. But ultimately she’ll have to
Vernon Bogdanor
If there is a hung parliament, the Lib Dems will end up backing Labour. They know their supporters want a second referendum''
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/02/jo-swinson-corbyn-hung-parliament-lib-dems-support-labour
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According to the latest data from Election Maps Uk (which collates data from 9 Opinion Polls) the Tory lead ranges from a high of 15 points to a low of 6 points.
It’ll be interesting to see how the estimated 3.2 million newly registered voters affect things.
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The rolling poll average is still saying 10-11% gap. But that's still including several high ones from a week or two ago. The more recent ones have mostly narrowed to 7-9%.
As you say, the really interesting thing will be if they are accounting for the 2million under 35s who registered in the last week or so. If they are mainly Labour, (and all the polls says a big majority of under 35s are Lab supporters) that could really make a difference.
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Just read somewhere (maybe a different thread on here) that the Polls are always based on a certain age Group. Think it said 25 to 65
The writer said so that looks good for Labour because the 3.5 million "new" Voters will support Labour en masse
Looks a bit wishy washy for me. Theres only 1 Poll that counts as they say .... I will wait with bated breath for 10.01 PM on Dec 12th and hope to see David Dumbledore or someone similar saying " Ladies and Gentlemen the exit Polls say its as you were. A hung Parliament with the Tories being the biggest Party"
Then I will laugh like f*** and go to bed thinking of Swinson jumping into bed with Johnsons successor and refusing to go into a Coalition unless there is at least a Peoples vote
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Interesting - SavantaComRes poll out just now
CON: 42% (=)
LAB: 36% (+4)
LDM: 11% (-1)
BXP: 4% (+1)
GRN: 2% (=)
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1203347824789856256
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One poll is not enough, but the trend is Remainers returning to Labour.
Keep 30% of Leavers, and with the new voters on the roster it becomes much more likely for Labour to be the movers in a hung parliament.
No doubt stories like this in the Torygraph will keep some Tories at home:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10439030/Millionaire-Tory-MP-claimed-expenses-to-heat-stables.html
YouGove man needs to keep his stables warm....what's wrong with that?
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It's down to those Remain supporters in Lab-Tory marginals who left Labour in their millions earlier this year and supported the LDs.
If they dig their heels in, Johnson is PM for 5 years.
And lifelong LD supporters too.
The stupidity of our electoral system, means that an LD supporter voting Labour in, say, Don Valley, is more likely to result in a hung Parliament and the LDs having a say in Govt than they would if that voter votes LD and let's the Tories win the seat and a majority. Truly a crazy system.
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https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1204053905602166785
Not saying that one is right, because there have been several over the weekend with much bigger leads for the Tories.
But.
If it IS right, according to the Electoral Calculus website, we're in hung parliament territory again.
https://twitter.com/zimussolini/status/1204054015610408960
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Will Corbyn step down when labour fails to get a majority again?
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I've no idea Ldr. Go and ask him.
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If todays polls are correct the only thing narrowing will be the noose around Corbyn's neck.
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If todays polls are correct the only thing narrowing will be the noose around Corbyn's neck.
Do you see different polling to the rest of us selby?
This is todays ICM poll - highest Labour share with that particular pollster since January and a probable hung parliament
CON: 42% (-)
LAB: 36% (+1)
LDEM: 12% (-1)
BREX: 3% (-)
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1204053905602166785
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Or Survation yesterday who have tended to be very accurate over the last few elections.
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 45% (+3)
LAB: 31% (-2)
LDEM: 11 (-)
BREX: 4% (+1)
GRN: 2% (-2)
via @Survation, 05 - 07 Dec
Chgs. w/ 30 Nov
https://t.co/m1hoBpI81D
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But that was yesterday Selby said today's polls? What other poll has come out today Ldr?
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Apologies, the survation one was tweeted today at 00.09 😁
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Will Corbyn step down when labour fails to get a majority again?
He'll probably retire and pull the ladder up behind him.
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........And thank God Labour aren't in power!
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Yes Survation got the 2017 prediction pretty well done. But they were awful in the EU elections earlier this year.
Funny thing is, since the pollsters work to a 95% confidence that they have the parties' support right to within +/-3%, both Survation and ICM could be right.
Con 42-43.
Lab 33-34
LD 11-12
Would fit both of them. And that's about the average of the last couple of weeks.
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Aaand...there goes the grown up discussion for the evening.
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BST that is where I think itll come out, about a 7% lead overall, labour are good at getting their core vote out and todsys poor press for the pm will help at the last minute.
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........And thank God Labour aren't in power!
And sing the National Anthem.
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BST that is where I think itll come out, about a 7% lead overall, labour are good at getting their core vote out and todsys poor press for the pm will help at the last minute.
What poor press?
Edit: my bad. Thought Labour had poor press. Couldn't find what had happened now.
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YouGov MRP polling just out
CON: 339 (-20)
LAB: 231 (+20)
SNP: 41 (-2)
LD: 15 (+2)
OTH: 24 (-)
That's a 40 seat swing to Labour in a week - from fieldwork done last week before hospitalgate of course.
If 15 more seats swing on Thursday a certain Mr B Johnson may require new employment soon.
https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1204521628589264896
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And presumably that's not taking tactical voting into account.
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And presumably that's not taking tactical voting into account.
It's probably why johnson is in full panic mode :)
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The sample ended today 105000 people. He should be nervous rightly so, we could easily be on course for no winners all around.
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If that poll is right, all it needs is a few thousand Lab and LD supporters to do the sensible thing and vote tactically across 15-20 seats and Johnson is toast.
That means folk holding their nose and voting for not their first preference but against the Tories.
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If only Andrew Neil could empty chair him tomorrow night, spend half an hour highlighting all the unanswered questions
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I've cast my tactical postal vote. I had to hold my nose to do it. But I did it. For the good of the country :)
Cheers
BobFG
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I've cast my tactical postal vote. I had to hold my nose to do it. But I did it. For the good of the country :)
Cheers
BobFG
Bob F*cking G?
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If 60 yrs old is the new 40 yrs old, is 20 yrs old the new 10 yr old and shouldn't be allowed to vote until they are 30yrs old and their brains have developed?
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If 60 yrs old is the new 40 yrs old, is 20 yrs old the new 10 yr old and shouldn't be allowed to vote until they are 30yrs old and their brains have developed?
To be fair some 60 year olds clearly haven't developed.
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Final ComRes poll just out
CON 41% (-)
LAB 36% (+3)
LD 12% (-)
Other 11% (-3)
Get out and vote
https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1204868699808784387
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Final ComRes poll just out
CON 41% (-)
LAB 36% (+3)
LD 12% (-)
Other 11% (-3)
Get out and vote
https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1204868699808784387
The only poll that counts is the one tomorrow.
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Great insight CR :)
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Very close in a number of key seats.
If you are Labour in Don Valley, Rother Valley or Bassetlaw.......make sure friends and family get out to vote.
Give people a lift, don't wake up on Friday and regret not doing it.
https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1204881951590670337
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Very close in a number of key seats.
If you are Labour in Don Valley, Rother Valley or Bassetlaw.......make sure friends and family get out to vote.
Give people a lift, don't wake up on Friday and regret not doing it.
https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1204881951590670337
But what if the people who you give a lift to vote for someone other than a Labour.
You are assuming everyone thinks like you do albie.
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Youv'e lost me, Hound. I wasn't assuming any such thing.
I said "if you vote Labour", and people needing help to vote should be assisted.
Most of the people needing that help are likely in those seats to be past Labour voters.
How they might choose to vote is for the privacy of the polling station.
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No, you didn’t say “if you vote Labour” you said “if you are Labour”.
You didn’t in the first post, say anything about the people you were advocating others to give a lift to being former labour voters.
I just said that the people given a lift might vote for someone else.
I am guessing that on Friday morning you would be gutted if you had helped Labour to be beaten.
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must be playing pedantic bungo again?
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Sydney, for the first time in my long life, that is the first time I have ever seen the need for labour voters to be encouraged to get out and vote in those constituencies because they absolutely need to.
I suggest there is a little hint there somewhere.
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I'd stick to your usual wind-up posts Selby it's too late for subtle :)
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Interesting.
When the polls opened this morning, the best price you could get on a Tory majority was 1/3.
Now it's gone out to 4/9. Pretty much every bookie is lengthening the odds.
Still big favourite of course, but...
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We all know Bad weather favours the conservatives for what it's worth
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Never understood that CLH
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Never understood that CLH
i am only repeating what they churn out year after year maybe tories have had more cars in years gone by
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Old people stay in when cold to avoid death
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We all know Bad weather favours the conservatives for what it's worth
We don't know that actually.
There's research been done that suggests it takes an inch of rain on polling day to knock 1% off the turnout, and there's no evidence it benefits any party.
Just another myth from years ago. Been a lot of that on here recently.
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I think the Turnout will be big, I’ve not seen the amount of cars outside our polling station before
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I do think it's going to be close and for once i agree with Filo.You would have thought with our Politics in the state it's in, the turnout would be low but maybe people want to go out and protest vote against their normal party...
I guess the exit Poll once the polls close will be the first major clue..
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Ed Milliband outside polling Station with his mate taking exit poll he's worried.
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They do it as a matter of course.
It's about ticking off known supporters so that activists don't waste time door knocking people who have already voted. Happens everywhere.
Milliband is not going to lose.
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I think the Turnout will be big, I’ve not seen the amount of cars outside our polling station before
It could be albie and his mates dropping people off coz they can’t get out by themselves. 😇
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Social media tells us it's a labour landslide, of course they are more vocal but it reminds me of the last few elections. The left and labour are brilliant at vocally supporting their side on the day.
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They do it as a matter of course.
It's about ticking off known supporters so that activists don't waste time door knocking people who have already voted. Happens everywhere.
Milliband is not going to lose.
Flinty under pressure says Yougov Poll
She got my vote even though I did not want to reward her with it. It became a tactical vote and roll on a better candidate except the Tory trying to win the seat now
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Social media tells us it's a labour landslide, of course they are more vocal but it reminds me of the last few elections. The left and labour are brilliant at vocally supporting their side on the day.
The younger generations tend to be on social media and more of them are Labour supporters than not. I think it could show the polls have underestimated the youth numbers but otherwise it's probably as is. We're still unfortunately heading for a Conservative win.