Viking Supporters Co-operative
Viking Chat => Off Topic => Topic started by: SydneyRover on October 25, 2021, 10:34:45 am
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Off topic wouldn't be the same without a regular chat about the NHS.
Sunak allocating £5.9bn to NHS for new facilities and equipment, will this and the money from the increased NI cover all the problems.
In 2020 it was estimated that £6bn would be required to catch up with maintenance.
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The wife’s just had some great treatment from the NHS which required her to have crutches and a walking frame.
For some reason they don’t want this equipment back.
Seems a waste of money if they do that all the time ;)
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Rishi Sunak has declared on the Andrew Marr show morning that a person earning 24 k only pays £180 tax a year. Slightly concerning given he is the chancellor.
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Back in the day, a Chancellor was expected to resign if he gave so much as a hint to the public about what was going to be in the Budget before it was announced to Parliament. Sunak and the Cabinet have been leaking this Budget across the media for the past week.
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Rishi Sunak has declared on the Andrew Marr show morning that a person earning 24 k only pays £180 tax a year. Slightly concerning given he is the chancellor.
He’s the richest man in parliament, most of his wealth is offshore avoiding tax and he complains about the average working mans tax liabilities
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Extra NHS funding, big rise in living wage (too much in one hit I would say given it's a mix of private/public cost and small businesses can't afford it), additional other funding. What's the catch? Got to be some cost to it and he's known to be quite keen on managing the cost. They've already done the NI increase so they won't be pushing income taxes upwards.
We will see the full package ultimately. I suspect there will be some changes to the way certain things are calculated to magically have found room in the finances....
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I Expect an increase in CGT.
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Rishi Sunak has declared on the Andrew Marr show morning that a person earning 24 k only pays £180 tax a year. Slightly concerning given he is the chancellor.
I think he was referring to the extra that would be paid with NI increase as opposed to a higher amount if income tax was raised
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Rishi Sunak has declared on the Andrew Marr show morning that a person earning 24 k only pays £180 tax a year. Slightly concerning given he is the chancellor.
I think he was referring to the extra that would be paid with NI increase as opposed to a higher amount if income tax was raised
Selective hearing perhaps.
Probably from someone on Twitter who got his facts wrong.
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Rishi Sunak has declared on the Andrew Marr show morning that a person earning 24 k only pays £180 tax a year. Slightly concerning given he is the chancellor.
He’s the richest man in parliament, most of his wealth is offshore avoiding tax and he complains about the average working mans tax liabilities
On reading this decided to check his pedigree etc out ...he has the "type of brains " The encumbent PM hasn't got ....
And his brains are above his belt....as opposed to ....
Yes married into a family worth billions ...now onto the subject of off shore investments
Is steve bruce goingto pay full tax on his alleged £8 million pay off (barcelona manager gets 18 million euros if he is sacked
Rashford is said to earn £10.4 million a year of course his financial advisers have never heard of the phrase "off shore"
Colemans first rule of football bigotry states :-
Criticise a politicians "financial management" but never a footballers
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Public sector workers set for payrise.
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And the national living wage by 6.62%
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Fascinating media management going on here.
I heard Sunak on the radio the other day saying he can afford these extras because the economy is doing better than expected.
But he knows what the ONS is going to be saying about how "well" the economy is doing and he knows that information is going to be published tomorrow. It's going to say broadly what the IMF is currently saying - that Britain's economy has suffered a worse hit in the past two years than any other G7 country.
(https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-I-E_fJ5A5VQ/YXVSnQ53AaI/AAAAAAAAFWg/2WXAu62GSR4AftJtBvFPITA_7dC3QyO_ACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h448/IMF%2Bforecast.JPG)
What you will hear tomorrow is a lot of crowing about how our economy is growing at record rates THIS year. And it is. But only because it shrank at even greater record rates last year. We ARE growing faster than most other countries this year, but that's a natural consequence of SOME of the damage of last year, when we had the worst hit of any G7 country, unwinding. It's like saying the fact that your body would bounce off the floor twice as high if you fell from a 10th floor window compared to falling from a 5th floor window is something to boast about. And the real problems then set in after that. Our growth is forecast to collapse down to historically low levels again from 2022 onwards.
So what is the solution? The obvious thing is to do what the Americans are doing. Keep on borrowing heavily. Keep on pumping money into the economy to get growth boosted. But Sunak is ideologically against that. He's going to be saying a lot about debt and deficit and how we have to pay it all back and why we have to cut our cloth and a load of economcally illiterate bullshit like that.
Even the IMF which normally supports balanced budgets is screaming at Sunak not to be stupid. It's just said in a report:
"Arresting momentum in the recovery could also risk a larger permanent output loss, given the stronger link between scarring and the speed of the recovery...for now, we think policy should err on the side of providing more rather than less support. With monetary policy space also heavily constrained, policy must now plan for fiscal capacity to play a greater role in macroeconomic stabilisation. "
In layman's terms, that means "For f**k's sake, do NOT make the mistake that we made in 2010, of obsessing about the deficit and cutting Govt spending. You MUST keep borrowing and spending if you are going to stop the economy tanking."
Sunak will not so that. And he doesn't want that to be the theme of Budget discussions. Which is why he's distracting everyon with carefully planned leaks of all the little bits of good news, while he hides the longer term plans to rein in spending in the weeds of his speech tomorrow.
Clever politicians. Shite Chancellor.
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Budget Bingo.
Watch out for this one as Sunak's justification for the swingeing cuts in public spending that are coming.
"A 1% rise in interest rates would add £25bn to interest payments on Govt debt."
If he says that, it means he's learned zero from the catastrophe of Austerity and he's prioritising the deficit uber alles again.
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Anyone want to count references to levelling up?
A few of the announced policies seem quite sensible, the devil will be in the detail as ever.
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In the big scheme of things, there's only one issue that matters.
Is this Govt going to prioritise helping the economy out of COVID by continuing to borrow heavily and invest (in particular in the infrastructure we need for a net zero economy) or are we going to repeat the disaster of Austerity and prioritise the debt.
Everything else is secondary. Get that decision wrong and we are on a permanently poorer and weaker path.
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Sunak's a Commie.
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The GDP growth projections were quickly glossed over, but they are horrific.
Once the immediate bounce back is out of the way, growth for 2023-2025 is projected to be 2.1%, 1.2% and 1.6%.
That compares with the long term average from 1950, right up until Austerity f**ked us over, of 2.3%.
We've just given up and accepted that sluggish economic growth is the norm now. By 2025, we will have had 15 years of below trend growth. The result is that by then, the economy will be producing £200bn per year less than it would have done if the earlier growth rate had continued.
The scale of these mistakes is so big, it's almost impossible to take in.
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Where were the actual figures for the past years so we could compare them against what was 'projected' in previous budgets?
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Lots of hoo-ha about 'simplifying' alcohol duty - which sounded just as complicated as it is at the moment - yet nothing about any 'simplification' of the just-as-convoluted tobacco duty. Presumably because he wouldn't have been able to make out he was making cuts.
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The GDP growth projections were quickly glossed over, but they are horrific.
Once the immediate bounce back is out of the way, growth for 2023-2025 is projected to be 2.1%, 1.2% and 1.6%.
That compares with the long term average from 1950, right up until Austerity f**ked us over, of 2.3%.
We've just given up and accepted that sluggish economic growth is the norm now. By 2025, we will have had 15 years of below trend growth. The result is that by then, the economy will be producing £200bn per year less than it would have done if the earlier growth rate had continued.
The scale of these mistakes is so big, it's almost impossible to take in.
All that despite very high spending I'd say which is what you called for. It will be interesting to see the remainder of the full details but seamt very high spending for a Tory chancellor.
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Got to say Rachel Reeves was absolutely fantastic in her reply. Maybe Labour isn’t quite dead and buried. The next Labour leader? ….
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She may well be the next leader of the opposition, but I reckon there's more chance of Sunak being the next Prime Minister.
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Of course Sunak has more chance of being the next leader of the Conservative party. He's the only credible contender.
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Public sector workers set for payrise.
Which will be wiped out by predicted 4% inflation.
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What’s is the diff between long haul and ultra long haul flights?
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She may well be the next leader of the opposition, but I reckon there's more chance of Sunak being the next Prime Minister.
Agree completely, and as one wise man once said….
“Democracy gives every man the right to be his own oppressor”
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Of course Sunak has more chance of being the next leader of the Conservative party. He's the only credible contender.
I specifically said Prime Minister, of course.
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Of course Sunak has more chance of being the next leader of the Conservative party. He's the only credible contender.
I specifically said Prime Minister, of course.
Probably before the next election so I'd agree.
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Of course Sunak has more chance of being the next leader of the Conservative party. He's the only credible contender.
I specifically said Prime Minister, of course.
Probably before the next election so I'd agree.
I'd go further and say probably after the next election also.
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Good news for drinkers of Asti, Tia Maria and Malibu then.
It gets more like the 70s all the time.
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The GDP growth projections were quickly glossed over, but they are horrific.
Once the immediate bounce back is out of the way, growth for 2023-2025 is projected to be 2.1%, 1.2% and 1.6%.
That compares with the long term average from 1950, right up until Austerity f**ked us over, of 2.3%.
We've just given up and accepted that sluggish economic growth is the norm now. By 2025, we will have had 15 years of below trend growth. The result is that by then, the economy will be producing £200bn per year less than it would have done if the earlier growth rate had continued.
The scale of these mistakes is so big, it's almost impossible to take in.
All that despite very high spending I'd say which is what you called for. It will be interesting to see the remainder of the full details but seamt very high spending for a Tory chancellor.
The point is it is NOT very high spending. here have been many things announced but you have to look at the big picture. Look at the amount being taken out of the economy by the reduction in UC, the increases in NI and the increase in Corporation Tax. Put together, they mean that the deficit will be back to effectively zero in real terms by 23/24, possibly a year earlier.
THAT is why the longer term growth predictions are so awful. Because Sunak is prioritising the deficit, not growth.
Compare that to America where Biden is pouring money into the economy to get it firing. And watch the divergence over the next few years.
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Is he? I haven't read the documents or figures but it's widely being reported that isn't the case? (Weirdly just came up on my twitter feed).
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1453400804765970441?t=0nGwyHuvpS6grs-RkTXIJw&s=19
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BFYP
Those numbers are exactly the point I was making. You can't look at the deficit in isolation. You have to consider the macroeconomic circumstances.
Here are the predicted deficit figures in £bn
22/23 - 83
23/24 - 61
24/25 - 46
25/26 - 44
GDP is currently about £2000bn.
Growth is forecast at:
22/23 - 6.6% - £130bn
23/24 - 2.1% - £40bn
24/25 - 1.2% - £25bn
25/26 - 1.6% - £35bn
And then there's inflation which is likely to be 3-4% over that period. Which means GDP will grow by another £60-80bn per year over that period.
So in every year from next year, the deficit is going to be much less than GDP growth. In other words, they are planning for the overall debt/GDP ratio to start falling from next year. With the result being that GDP growth returns to pitifully low rates.
Compare that to America where they are turbocharging growth by more deficit spending.
I don't expect Newton-Dunn to point that out. Because his employer is invested in telling the story that the Tories are doing the right thing. He doesn't even properly contextualise the figures he shows without the analysis above. In 23/24, the projected deficit will be LOWER than it was forecast to be before COVID. That is frankly insane, in an economy that will still be recovering from COVID.
It's Austerity all over again, but skilfully presented as Not Austerity.
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Going back to your opening post Syd, more than enough, sort out the shift patterns four on four off to keep the equipment going twenty four hours, get rid of layers of management., sort out the buyers especially the brown envelope brigade, and reward GP's on a similar wage structure to that of other countries such as France.
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Other concern of course is that there was very little in the Budget about the scale of investment needed for decarbonising the economy.
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Going back to your opening post Syd, more than enough, sort out the shift patterns four on four off to keep the equipment going twenty four hours, get rid of layers of management., sort out the buyers especially the brown envelope brigade, and reward GP's on a similar wage structure to that of other countries such as France.
When politicians talk about a 24 hour economy selby, they usually mean a 24 hour economy for others, certainly not them (look at the regular weeks off that johnson takes to get his beauty sleep) those higher up the food chain certainly don't volunteer.
As for the brown envelope, that was recycled long ago, now it is done right in front of your face look at the PPE contracts, look at advantages given to developer mates.
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Good news for drinkers of Asti, Tia Maria and Malibu then.
It gets more like the 70s all the time.
You know how we used to take the p*ss out of East Germany. A country that believed it was living the dream - because it's leader told everyone it was - even though everyone in the West looked on it as some kind of freak show.
I think we're in for a spell of that now.
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Interesting times in the Tory party. Here's the Big Picture of the Budget.
1) Govt spending is high. That's mainly inevitable due to an aging population and higher health and care costs. It's added to slightly by Johnson's desire to spend and the need to roll back some of the worst effects of Osborne's Austerity [1]
2) But Sunak is a deficit hawk. So he's pairing this with massive tax rises. Get this. By 2024, this Govt will be taking more in tax as a % of GDP than any Govt since Clement Attlee's.[2]
3) But the Tory backwoodsmen want tax cuts. Apparently Sunak got an ear bashing from the backbenchers last night about tax. Which might explain his frankly bizarre interview on R4 this morning, where he repeatedly insisted that his (very good) cut in the UC taper rate was a tax cut, when it is of course a benefit increase.
There's going to be some serious tension in the Tory ranks.
[1] There was one truly disgusting moment yesterday. Tory MPs cheering when Sunak announced that by 2025, education spending would finally get back to 2010 levels. No apology from the party that has cut £1500 per pupil per year while also cutting the top rate of tax, effectively subsidising rich families who send their kids to private schools.
[2] And this is why the Budget is a disaster on a macroeconomic level. Until we recover fully from the effect of COVID, we need to be spending and NOT taxing. Instead, the big tax rises will suck demand out of the economy, which basically puts us on a long term low growth path. This is a choice by Sunak. It doesn't have to be that way.
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The GDP growth projections were quickly glossed over, but they are horrific.
Once the immediate bounce back is out of the way, growth for 2023-2025 is projected to be 2.1%, 1.2% and 1.6%.
That compares with the long term average from 1950, right up until Austerity f**ked us over, of 2.3%.
We've just given up and accepted that sluggish economic growth is the norm now. By 2025, we will have had 15 years of below trend growth. The result is that by then, the economy will be producing £200bn per year less than it would have done if the earlier growth rate had continued.
The scale of these mistakes is so big, it's almost impossible to take in.
All that despite very high spending I'd say which is what you called for. It will be interesting to see the remainder of the full details but seamt very high spending for a Tory chancellor.
The point is it is NOT very high spending. here have been many things announced but you have to look at the big picture. Look at the amount being taken out of the economy by the reduction in UC, the increases in NI and the increase in Corporation Tax. Put together, they mean that the deficit will be back to effectively zero in real terms by 23/24, possibly a year earlier.
THAT is why the longer term growth predictions are so awful. Because Sunak is prioritising the deficit, not growth.
Compare that to America where Biden is pouring money into the economy to get it firing. And watch the divergence over the next few years.
has Biden not had to more than half what he was going to spend?
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strewth ..............
''This is actually awful. Yet more years of real incomes barely growing. High inflation, rising taxes, poor growth keeping living standards virtually stagnant for another half a decade''
says Paul Johnson Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
https://twitter.com/PJTheEconomist/status/1453350780124160007?s=20
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strewth ..............
''This is actually awful. Yet more years of real incomes barely growing. High inflation, rising taxes, poor growth keeping living standards virtually stagnant for another half a decade''
says Paul Johnson Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
https://twitter.com/PJTheEconomist/status/1453350780124160007?s=20
It’s almost like the conservatives have gone all socialist.
Some will be happy with this.
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strewth ..............
''This is actually awful. Yet more years of real incomes barely growing. High inflation, rising taxes, poor growth keeping living standards virtually stagnant for another half a decade''
says Paul Johnson Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
https://twitter.com/PJTheEconomist/status/1453350780124160007?s=20
It’s almost like the conservatives have gone all socialist.
Some will be happy with this.
I think some will be yes and would be delighted if this was a red budget not a blue one. Some parts of this just don't sit comfortably to me, there are real question marks around the size of the state and the lack of efficiency in using public funds. They say it's a squeeze on the middle incomes, I'm not sure what that covers right now, it's a squeeze on everyone.
The inflation problem is not unique to us (Germany already at 5% and with less levers than us to control it).
BST your point on growth is fair, but after the brexit we have this is massively higher than the post brexit predictions isn't it?
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But a country in private hands has led nothing being done about shit pouring into rivers, train transport chaos and the biggie the underfunding and selling off of parts of the NHS and absolute mayhem of a response to covid resulting in 10s of thousands of excess deaths etc.
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strewth ..............
''This is actually awful. Yet more years of real incomes barely growing. High inflation, rising taxes, poor growth keeping living standards virtually stagnant for another half a decade''
says Paul Johnson Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
https://twitter.com/PJTheEconomist/status/1453350780124160007?s=20
It’s almost like the conservatives have gone all socialist.
Some will be happy with this.
I think some will be yes and would be delighted if this was a red budget not a blue one. Some parts of this just don't sit comfortably to me, there are real question marks around the size of the state and the lack of efficiency in using public funds. They say it's a squeeze on the middle incomes, I'm not sure what that covers right now, it's a squeeze on everyone.
The inflation problem is not unique to us (Germany already at 5% and with less levers than us to control it).
BST your point on growth is fair, but after the brexit we have this is massively higher than the post brexit predictions isn't it?
No BFYP, it isn't massively higher than the post-Brexit predictions. It's about on par with them, actually a little lower, once the post-COVID bounce back has ended.
In 2019, the OBR had a prediction of long-term growth of 1.5% per year. At this Budget, the predictions for 2025 and 26 were 1.2% and 1.6%.
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This is the thing about Brexit by the way. Assuming we left without a catastrophic No Deal scenario, absolutely no-one said that there'd be immediate disaster. What we said was that there would be a long, slow, grinding reduction in growth and therefore in wealth and living standards. You wouldn't notice it overnight, but you damn well would over 15 years.
Brexit supporters meanwhile have crowed about the fact that nothing feels different in their pockets, so all the doom and gloom predictions must have been wrong.
Re-visit this in 5, 10 and 15 years and see how people are feeling then.
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bang on there, they are cheering ' it doesn’t seem much worse ' after less than a year as some sort of victory. Still waiting to hear of even one verifiable benefit.
Mugdoch and the rest off the right wing non domicile, non tax paying off shore billionaires that own most of our media have a lot to answer for.
Not to mention the Brexit Broadcasting Corporation.
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This is the thing about Brexit by the way. Assuming we left without a catastrophic No Deal scenario, absolutely no-one said that there'd be immediate disaster. What we said was that there would be a long, slow, grinding reduction in growth and therefore in wealth and living standards. You wouldn't notice it overnight, but you damn well would over 15 years.
Brexit supporters meanwhile have crowed about the fact that nothing feels different in their pockets, so all the doom and gloom predictions must have been wrong.
Re-visit this in 5, 10 and 15 years and see how people are feeling then.
BST, with your incomparable foresight, do you ever feel guilty about wasting your invaluable time on a third division off-topic football forum?
Doesn't your country need you far more than we do?