Viking Supporters Co-operative
Viking Chat => Off Topic => Topic started by: River Don on May 01, 2022, 06:08:36 pm
-
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/may/01/bank-of-england-duty-bound-to-trigger-recession-to-curb-inflation
It's pretty clear we're already heading into a recession, why make it worse?
Particularly when clamping down on demand in the UK will have next to no effect on international energy prices.
-
Contracting disposable income will reduce energy demand.
-
There are two main components to the current inflation. Global commodity costs and domestic demand rebounding post-COVID.
Both of those should be transient. So inflationary pressures should fade away over time.
In that light, dramatically raising interest rates to choke off demand and curb I flatiron would be a massive overreaction.
-
Contracting disposable income will reduce energy demand.
Yes. So why raise interest rates?
-
One overlooked matter is actually what's happening to the dollar. The dollar has gone through the roof of late and that's going to cause problems in itself given how many markets are based around it (eg oil).
-
One way to help would be to open up immigration, reduce the worker shortage and boost production. Are there any trading blocs nearby we could join to make goods cheaper?
-
Contracting disposable income will reduce energy demand.
Yes. So why raise interest rates?
Because there is an inbuilt conservativism in many Central Banks that sees inflation as their biggest enemy, rather than loss of economic growth. That can work if you also have a Govt prepared to support growth through public spending. But we have Sunak in charge of that angle. He's a committed Austerian.
-
Contracting disposable income will reduce energy demand.
Yes. So why raise interest rates?
It raises the cost of borrowing so also reduces disposable income, especially of those with a mortgage.
-
Contracting disposable income will reduce energy demand.
Yes. So why raise interest rates?
It raises the cost of borrowing so also reduces disposable income, especially of those with a mortgage.
I think the rise in energy and food costs are already reducing disposable income significantly. The retailers are already seeing people cutting back.
-
I think they are wanting to deal with inflation but what we are facing is stagflation.
The huge rises in the cost of energy and fuel are rippling through the global economy.
There's not a lot you can do about stagflation is there?
-
Think we need to look at how other nations have dealt with energy pricing rather than pass everything on to the end user. Then again how many tories will be milking this and making money
-
I think they are wanting to deal with inflation but what we are facing is stagflation.
The huge rises in the cost of energy and fuel are rippling through the global economy.
There's not a lot you can do about stagflation is there?
There is RD; a targeted growth strategy.
That would require a degree of strategic thinking around investment and funding that has been singularly lacking from this government to date.
-
The only growth strategy likely to work in this situation is cheaper energy. I don't see any easy ways of delivering that quickly.
-
If only we had a source of energy just sitting underground that we could dig up for ourselves and so not be beholden to foreign countries for our energy needs. :silly:
-
If only we had a source of energy just sitting underground that we could dig up for ourselves and so not be beholden to foreign countries for our energy needs. :silly:
It's not going to be an inexpensive solution, not easy to start up again and it's particularly polluting.
Opening up new fields in the North Sea seems to be the preffered option. Even then though, it'll be sold on the international markets, meaning significantly lower prices are unlikely.
-
The only growth strategy likely to work in this situation is cheaper energy. I don't see any easy ways of delivering that quickly.
We could start by massive Govt investment in uprating home insulation.
We could also allow onshore wind turbine development. Both of those decisions would get money circulating round the economy, boosting jobs, and reducing our dependence on foreign fossil fuels
-
The only growth strategy likely to work in this situation is cheaper energy. I don't see any easy ways of delivering that quickly.
We could start by massive Govt investment in uprating home insulation.
We could also allow onshore wind turbine development. Both of those decisions would get money circulating round the economy, boosting jobs, and reducing our dependence on foreign fossil fuels
Certainly they could roll out an insulation programme this summer which might help a lot of people this winter.
They have been resisting this idea for a longtime, instead offering subsidy for heat pumps, which won't be effective unless you have a well insulated house!
-
The only growth strategy likely to work in this situation is cheaper energy. I don't see any easy ways of delivering that quickly.
We could start by massive Govt investment in uprating home insulation.
We could also allow onshore wind turbine development. Both of those decisions would get money circulating round the economy, boosting jobs, and reducing our dependence on foreign fossil fuels
Never had an issue with wind turbines until I camped at a site with one in the next field last year. Horrendous noise it made, wouldn't want that next door to my house at all. We've plenty more offshore space we could use first.
-
just who invented the definition of a recession ? A word at a stroke implying "doom and depression"
yes a lot of posters on here have gums that are in recession ( ok receeding but it sounds gud )
definition
a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.
CLH says so wot !!
ok i am going to invent a new buzz word (copyright CLH)
a Tricession
a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in three successive quarters
as i said a recession is a nice word to spread doom and depression - trouble is very few people know what the definition is
the defintion reminds me of our current definition of "shots on target" in a football match
A football fans definition of a shot on target includes when a defender blocks a shot on target etc - but to the doomsters (The Sports Press Football TV commentators etc) who are trying to make out a teams performance is worse than it is ..... and to make a "cheap fake headline" ... they invent the "new" definition. An obvious target at the moment would be Man U or even the England team
ask the man in the street what the definition of a recession is and he aint got a clue .. but it sounds GUD as i say
rant over
-
The off-season getting into full swing I see
-
The off-season getting into full swing I see
but do you agree yes or no -- you typed before you had time to actually read the thread
sorry mate you have been caught out
i was thinking of you when i came across the domain in sydney Australia during the night :headbang: :headbang: :headbang:
-
Not more than the first line no, correct
-
In 1974, American economist Julius Shiskin came up with a few rules of thumb to define a recession: The most popular was two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. A healthy economy expands over time, so two quarters in a row of contracting output suggests there are serious underlying problems, according to Shiskin. This definition of a recession became a common standard over the years.
-
thanks for that
there is a top quality national hunt horse with that same name -- that explains it
"Never in the history of posting on the drfc-vsc website have so many - sport of kings followers - learnt so much from a single post"
I am sure a commentator at The Cheltenham Festival next year would love to drop that fact into his commentary :scarf:
-
Shishkin.
The Russian word for Pinecone apparently.
-
Are you sure RD?
-
just who invented the definition of a recession ? A word at a stroke implying "doom and depression"
yes a lot of posters on here have gums that are in recession ( ok receeding but it sounds gud )
definition
a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.
CLH says so wot !!
ok i am going to invent a new buzz word (copyright CLH)
a Tricession
a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in three successive quarters
as i said a recession is a nice word to spread doom and depression - trouble is very few people know what the definition is
the defintion reminds me of our current definition of "shots on target" in a football match
A football fans definition of a shot on target includes when a defender blocks a shot on target etc - but to the doomsters (The Sports Press Football TV commentators etc) who are trying to make out a teams performance is worse than it is ..... and to make a "cheap fake headline" ... they invent the "new" definition. An obvious target at the moment would be Man U or even the England team
ask the man in the street what the definition of a recession is and he aint got a clue .. but it sounds GUD as i say
rant over
Who gives a shit what 'the man in the street' thinks about economic term definitions if he knows nothing about economics?
-
BoE next sitting 5 may and there is an anticipated rise to 1% on the cards.
-
BoE next sitting 5 may and there is an anticipated rise to 1% on the cards.
I still don't understand why that should be, when the economy is already slowing.
-
BoE next sitting 5 may and there is an anticipated rise to 1% on the cards.
I still don't understand why that should be, when the economy is already slowing.
The economy may be slowing, but prices continue to rise. PWC are predicting possible inflation this year to peak between 8-11%.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwj5tKvAhcP3AhXNfMAKHchrBr4QFnoECBMQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pwc.co.uk%2Fservices%2Feconomics%2Finsights%2Fuk-economic-outlook.html&usg=AOvVaw2Da8e-JUwSdWxKfJkfU6eL
-
Interest rates are the only thing the BoE has to try to rein in inflation.
-
just who invented the definition of a recession ? A word at a stroke implying "doom and depression"
yes a lot of posters on here have gums that are in recession ( ok receeding but it sounds gud )
definition
a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.
CLH says so wot !!
ok i am going to invent a new buzz word (copyright CLH)
a Tricession
a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in three successive quarters
as i said a recession is a nice word to spread doom and depression - trouble is very few people know what the definition is
the defintion reminds me of our current definition of "shots on target" in a football match
A football fans definition of a shot on target includes when a defender blocks a shot on target etc - but to the doomsters (The Sports Press Football TV commentators etc) who are trying to make out a teams performance is worse than it is ..... and to make a "cheap fake headline" ... they invent the "new" definition. An obvious target at the moment would be Man U or even the England team
ask the man in the street what the definition of a recession is and he aint got a clue .. but it sounds GUD as i say
rant over
Who gives a shit what 'the man in the street' thinks about economic term definitions if he knows nothing about economics?
And yet the man in the street (well, lots of them, and women) are the ones who hold the key as to who is in government.
-
just who invented the definition of a recession ? A word at a stroke implying "doom and depression"
yes a lot of posters on here have gums that are in recession ( ok receeding but it sounds gud )
definition
a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.
CLH says so wot !!
ok i am going to invent a new buzz word (copyright CLH)
a Tricession
a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in three successive quarters
as i said a recession is a nice word to spread doom and depression - trouble is very few people know what the definition is
the defintion reminds me of our current definition of "shots on target" in a football match
A football fans definition of a shot on target includes when a defender blocks a shot on target etc - but to the doomsters (The Sports Press Football TV commentators etc) who are trying to make out a teams performance is worse than it is ..... and to make a "cheap fake headline" ... they invent the "new" definition. An obvious target at the moment would be Man U or even the England team
ask the man in the street what the definition of a recession is and he aint got a clue .. but it sounds GUD as i say
rant over
Who gives a shit what 'the man in the street' thinks about economic term definitions if he knows nothing about economics?
And yet the man in the street (well, lots of them, and women) are the ones who hold the key as to who is in government.
Then they should listen to people who know what they're talking about to get a good idea of the true situation and make an informed decision, and not to someone making it up as they go along, no?
-
just who invented the definition of a recession ? A word at a stroke implying "doom and depression"
yes a lot of posters on here have gums that are in recession ( ok receeding but it sounds gud )
definition
a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.
CLH says so wot !!
ok i am going to invent a new buzz word (copyright CLH)
a Tricession
a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in three successive quarters
as i said a recession is a nice word to spread doom and depression - trouble is very few people know what the definition is
the defintion reminds me of our current definition of "shots on target" in a football match
A football fans definition of a shot on target includes when a defender blocks a shot on target etc - but to the doomsters (The Sports Press Football TV commentators etc) who are trying to make out a teams performance is worse than it is ..... and to make a "cheap fake headline" ... they invent the "new" definition. An obvious target at the moment would be Man U or even the England team
ask the man in the street what the definition of a recession is and he aint got a clue .. but it sounds GUD as i say
rant over
Who gives a shit what 'the man in the street' thinks about economic term definitions if he knows nothing about economics?
And yet the man in the street (well, lots of them, and women) are the ones who hold the key as to who is in government.
Then they should listen to people who know what they're talking about to get a good idea of the true situation and make an informed decision, and not to someone making it up as they go along, no?
Glyn, you know as well as I do that not everyone is interested in studying economics, just the same as they are not interested in politics.
They all still have the opportunity to vote in an election, however not all of them do that either.
-
In this case and typically of the dismal science, we have one ex senior policy maker saying put interest rates up because inflation and one saying leave well alone it will make the slow down worse.
Personally I don't see the point. The BoE upping interest rates will have next to no impact on the imported inflation associated with hydrocarbons.
-
A rise to 1% confirmed .
No surprise there.
More to come no doubt.
-
A rise to 1% confirmed .
No surprise there.
More to come no doubt.
Well probably but Bailey said this:
“The MPC simply doesn’t have the tools to offset a supply side shock like this. That would mean raising interest rates to the point that spending was so weak that the prices of other, domestically produced, goods and services fell. That would be damaging and would go against our mandate to avoid causing excessive volatility in output.
-
In this case and typically of the dismal science, we have one ex senior policy maker saying put interest rates up because inflation and one saying leave well alone it will make the slow down worse.
Personally I don't see the point. The BoE upping interest rates will have next to no impact on the imported inflation associated with hydrocarbons.
Just out of interest, it isn't Andrew Sentance saying we should put up rates is it? He's predicted 12 of the last 1 spikes in inflation.
-
A rise to 1% confirmed .
No surprise there.
More to come no doubt.
Well probably but Bailey said this:
“The MPC simply doesn’t have the tools to offset a supply side shock like this. That would mean raising interest rates to the point that spending was so weak that the prices of other, domestically produced, goods and services fell. That would be damaging and would go against our mandate to avoid causing excessive volatility in output.
Absolutely. Interest rates control demand. Govt policy deals with supply.
-
In this case and typically of the dismal science, we have one ex senior policy maker saying put interest rates up because inflation and one saying leave well alone it will make the slow down worse.
Personally I don't see the point. The BoE upping interest rates will have next to no impact on the imported inflation associated with hydrocarbons.
Just out of interest, it isn't Andrew Sentance saying we should put up rates is it? He's predicted 12 of the last 1 spikes in inflation.
In this case it was Posen but no doubt Sentence would agree. I can't remember now but it might have been Haldane who urged caution.
-
That's intesting RD. Posen was very dovish on interest rates when he was on the MPC.
-
That's intesting RD. Posen was very dovish on interest rates when he was on the MPC.
It's in the original link on this thread (he's blaming Brexit) . It was Blanchflower urging caution.
-
just who invented the definition of a recession ? A word at a stroke implying "doom and depression"
yes a lot of posters on here have gums that are in recession ( ok receeding but it sounds gud )
definition
a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.
CLH says so wot !!
ok i am going to invent a new buzz word (copyright CLH)
a Tricession
a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in three successive quarters
as i said a recession is a nice word to spread doom and depression - trouble is very few people know what the definition is
the defintion reminds me of our current definition of "shots on target" in a football match
A football fans definition of a shot on target includes when a defender blocks a shot on target etc - but to the doomsters (The Sports Press Football TV commentators etc) who are trying to make out a teams performance is worse than it is ..... and to make a "cheap fake headline" ... they invent the "new" definition. An obvious target at the moment would be Man U or even the England team
ask the man in the street what the definition of a recession is and he aint got a clue .. but it sounds GUD as i say
rant over
Who gives a shit what 'the man in the street' thinks about economic term definitions if he knows nothing about economics?
And yet the man in the street (well, lots of them, and women) are the ones who hold the key as to who is in government.
Then they should listen to people who know what they're talking about to get a good idea of the true situation and make an informed decision, and not to someone making it up as they go along, no?
Glyn, you know as well as I do that not everyone is interested in studying economics, just the same as they are not interested in politics.
They all still have the opportunity to vote in an election, however not all of them do that either.
But I didn't say anybody should study economics. Just to listen to those that have.
-
Interest rates are the only thing the BoE has to try to rein in inflation.
Not quite true, there is the control of the money supply as well.
-
just who invented the definition of a recession ? A word at a stroke implying "doom and depression"
yes a lot of posters on here have gums that are in recession ( ok receeding but it sounds gud )
definition
a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.
CLH says so wot !!
ok i am going to invent a new buzz word (copyright CLH)
a Tricession
a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in three successive quarters
as i said a recession is a nice word to spread doom and depression - trouble is very few people know what the definition is
the defintion reminds me of our current definition of "shots on target" in a football match
A football fans definition of a shot on target includes when a defender blocks a shot on target etc - but to the doomsters (The Sports Press Football TV commentators etc) who are trying to make out a teams performance is worse than it is ..... and to make a "cheap fake headline" ... they invent the "new" definition. An obvious target at the moment would be Man U or even the England team
ask the man in the street what the definition of a recession is and he aint got a clue .. but it sounds GUD as i say
rant over
Who gives a shit what 'the man in the street' thinks about economic term definitions if he knows nothing about economics?
And yet the man in the street (well, lots of them, and women) are the ones who hold the key as to who is in government.
Then they should listen to people who know what they're talking about to get a good idea of the true situation and make an informed decision, and not to someone making it up as they go along, no?
Glyn, you know as well as I do that not everyone is interested in studying economics, just the same as they are not interested in politics.
They all still have the opportunity to vote in an election, however not all of them do that either.
But I didn't say anybody should study economics. Just to listen to those that have.
Slight amendment then Glyn.
Not everyone is interested in listening to people who have studied economics, just the same as they are not interested in politics.
They all still have the opportunity to vote in an election, however not all of them do that either.
-
Interest rates are the only thing the BoE has to try to rein in inflation.
Not quite true, there is the control of the money supply as well.
Thanks Glyn
-
Interest rates are the only thing the BoE has to try to rein in inflation.
Not quite true, there is the control of the money supply as well.
Thanks Glyn
There's also the issue of government bonds, but it's a very indirect way of pressuring the banks and other financial institutions that buy them.
-
Bloody hell Glyn are we done now ;)
-
I think they are wanting to deal with inflation but what we are facing is stagflation.
The huge rises in the cost of energy and fuel are rippling through the global economy.
There's not a lot you can do about stagflation is there?
We only have two of the the three requirements of stagflation - low growth and high inflation. For it to be stagflation we'd need to have high unemployment too, which we don't - if you believe the government that is.
-
I think they are wanting to deal with inflation but what we are facing is stagflation.
The huge rises in the cost of energy and fuel are rippling through the global economy.
There's not a lot you can do about stagflation is there?
We only have two of the the three requirements of stagflation - low growth and high inflation. For it to be stagflation we'd need to have high unemployment too, which we don't - if you believe the government that is.
If things carry on like this it won't be long before we see unemployment rising.
One or two wobbles on the stock markets recently too.
-
I think they are wanting to deal with inflation but what we are facing is stagflation.
The huge rises in the cost of energy and fuel are rippling through the global economy.
There's not a lot you can do about stagflation is there?
We only have two of the the three requirements of stagflation - low growth and high inflation. For it to be stagflation we'd need to have high unemployment too, which we don't - if you believe the government that is.
If things carry on like this it won't be long before we see unemployment rising.
One or two wobbles on the stock markets recently too.
There are some standout wobbles on the markets. But the FTSE 100 is only 0.5% down over 6 months . And actually 5.5% up over the last 12 months .
That’s said the ftse 250 is down 11% on the year.
-
I think they are wanting to deal with inflation but what we are facing is stagflation.
The huge rises in the cost of energy and fuel are rippling through the global economy.
There's not a lot you can do about stagflation is there?
We only have two of the the three requirements of stagflation - low growth and high inflation. For it to be stagflation we'd need to have high unemployment too, which we don't - if you believe the government that is.
If things carry on like this it won't be long before we see unemployment rising.
One or two wobbles on the stock markets recently too.
A big lump gone off my pension fund in the last week or so.
-
I think they are wanting to deal with inflation but what we are facing is stagflation.
The huge rises in the cost of energy and fuel are rippling through the global economy.
There's not a lot you can do about stagflation is there?
We only have two of the the three requirements of stagflation - low growth and high inflation. For it to be stagflation we'd need to have high unemployment too, which we don't - if you believe the government that is.
If things carry on like this it won't be long before we see unemployment rising.
One or two wobbles on the stock markets recently too.
A big lump gone off my pension fund in the last week or so.
Not half, bit of a killer of late but it'll rebound.
Glyn, no doubt unemployment stats are low, don't know how others are doing but recruiting right now is very difficult.
-
I think they are wanting to deal with inflation but what we are facing is stagflation.
The huge rises in the cost of energy and fuel are rippling through the global economy.
There's not a lot you can do about stagflation is there?
We only have two of the the three requirements of stagflation - low growth and high inflation. For it to be stagflation we'd need to have high unemployment too, which we don't - if you believe the government that is.
If things carry on like this it won't be long before we see unemployment rising.
One or two wobbles on the stock markets recently too.
There are some standout wobbles on the markets. But the FTSE 100 is only 0.5% down over 6 months . And actually 5.5% up over the last 12 months .
That’s said the ftse 250 is down 11% on the year.
The FTSE isn't as much of an indicator of the health of the UK economy as it used to be in the past. Most big companies are now so global that their profits could easily have been gained in countries other than the UK.
-
GDP fell 0.1% last month.
We are already on the verge.