Viking Supporters Co-operative
Viking Chat => Viking Chat => Topic started by: GazLaz on March 23, 2023, 09:27:18 pm
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What the hell has happened? The numbers I have used are pretty sophisticated xG figures that take into account every attack for each team during a game, quantify them and then generate a total figure.
We have fallen off a cliff after improving.
The improvement came from improving defensively, the attacking output remained stagnant.
We are in big trouble.
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It’s shite to watch and delivers terrible results. We visualise that every match.
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Don’t need to count every forward pass to figure out we’ve lost any semblance of a been a team that can win a game without extreme luck.
I wonder what’s been done during the week in training to lead to this. There has to be a reason or something we are doing that is just plain wrong.
Maybe we just practice 5 yard goal kicks. But we’re shite at those too. Certainly don’t practice throw ins.
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This does sum it up. But really didn't need software for it. Thanks Gazlaz for the info.
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They showed that XG for graph at the MTO event to demonstrate how we were making real progress under DS. It was on the back of three wins and was looking very healthy.
They clearly use and analyse these data to track and evaluate success/progress so with that in mind if I was Danny Schofield I'd be very concerned about my job security right now.
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What the hell has happened? The numbers I have used are pretty sophisticated xG figures that take into account every attack for each team during a game, quantify them and then generate a total figure.
We have fallen off a cliff after improving.
The improvement came from improving defensively, the attacking output remained stagnant.
We are in big trouble.
Interesting stuff Gaz.
I do a lot of time series analysis professionally and that often includes taking rolling averages to find trends in noisy data. I have a question about this. How does the rolling 8 game average work? Is it the average of the previous 8 games? In which case, how does that work at the start of the season? Does it roll over from last season?
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I would suggest, despite what some players say about Schofield, they have stopped playing for him, that drop off is of biblical proportions
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That's an interesting query which also leads me to thinking how it would work with a change of manager, the assumption being on the charts above that there would be an exponential demonstration of the impact that Schofield had as the first eight games under his leadership accrued with every passing game effectively deleting one of McSheffrey's from the front end of the data set.
It would also suggest that B isn't as impressive a stat for DS as it might first appear because it's partially inclusive of A whilst the delta at C moves out of the range.
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The data for match 32 is far worse than the data for match 30.
If the average is a lagging one, the average for match 30 is based on the data from matches 23-30 and the average for match 32 is based on the data from matches 25-32.
That implies that matches 23-24 were very good for us and 31-32 very bad.
23-24 were the wins against Rochdale and Carlisle. 31-32 were the abject defeats against Sutton and Bradford.
On one level then this is just a useful way of visualising what we all know from watching the performances. It kind of says that, up until the Sutton game, Schofield had got us performing at about 8-10th place standard. Sometimes a tad above, sometimes a tad below.
That's about the standard I think for the distinctly limited squad we've put together.
Again, as we know, the wheels have come off since then. Questions are: why and can he fix it?
Having calmed down a bit from Tuesday night, I'd be prepared to give him a bit of leeway on the "why". We've been badly disrupted by injuries (Maxwell, Lakin, Biggins, Anderson, Close all missing games, Rowe clearly not at 100%, now Miller out). For a squad as rank bad as the one we've put together over the past 2 years, it's always going to be tough to deal with that sort of disruption.
It also didn't help that at 0-0 at Sutton, Miller missed the easiest chance of the season when, once again, he refused to use his left foot to roll a ball into an empty net from 3 yards out. On such moments can form change...
The "can he improve it" question is harder. On one hand, I think until recently be had developed a style of play that at least got the side performing somewhere near the sum of its very limited parts. Could he do better with better recruitment? No reason to think not. But he's certainly not got the side playing to a standard better than the sum of its parts, which is the mark of an excellent manager
On balance, I think I'd give him the summer and first half of next season and hope for a bit of luck on injuries and a bit of professional diligence on recruitment.
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What the hell has happened? The numbers I have used are pretty sophisticated xG figures that take into account every attack for each team during a game, quantify them and then generate a total figure.
We have fallen off a cliff after improving.
The improvement came from improving defensively, the attacking output remained stagnant.
We are in big trouble.
Interesting stuff Gaz.
I do a lot of time series analysis professionally and that often includes taking rolling averages to find trends in noisy data. I have a question about this. How does the rolling 8 game average work? Is it the average of the previous 8 games? In which case, how does that work at the start of the season? Does it roll over from last season?
Yes it is and it isn’t carried over, I just built it up over the first 8 games, 1 game, 2 games rolling, 3 games rolling, up to 8.
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Cheers Gaz. Much appreciated.
You might want to try a centred 7 game rolling average.
So the value for match 30 for example is the average of matches 27-33 and you taper the average off at either end.
(So game 1 data is just game 1, game 2 data is average of games 1-3, game 3 is average of games 1-5, and the same at the latest end - game 37 is game 37, 36 is average of 35-37, 35 is average of 33-37).
Advantage of this is threefold.
1) It gives you a better feel at each stage for what was the form averaged out over the period for which your date is the centre, rather than using data from a long time earlier. This makes it easier to spot when major reversals of form started.
2) You get a better averaging at the start of the season.
3) You might just start to see when a change in form is starting to come in at the right end of you time series and be able to predict better where we are going (because you averaging at the end of the series isn't influenced by what happened 5,6,7,8 games ago).
Disadvantage is if you have one outlier performance in your most recent game, the final point on your graph can go up or down by a lot without it really being a trend.
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Interesting that the tumble started when Maxwell got injured.
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Should have said, the centred average will, for most of the data, more or less just shift the trend line you already have a few games to the left on the graph. But as I say, it makes it easier to see where the change in trend actually started.
I'd guess that, what looks like a big change in net xG around game 32 is actually telling us the real change was from games 28-29 onwards.
That's interesting, because we won those two matches (Tranmere and Swindon) and the next (Barrow) but the consensus was that we hadn't been particularly good in any of the games.
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Interesting that the tumble started when Maxwell got injured.
And (whisper it) Ro-Shaun Williams.
Interesting...
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Whisper it even more quietly. The dip also started about the time that Rowe came back from injury.
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Whisper it even more quietly. The dip also started about the time that Rowe came back from injury.
He’s gone hasn’t he?? Hope not admittedly. His technical ability had always been ordinary so when his physical assets go he’s done.
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Whisper it even more quietly. The dip also started about the time that Rowe came back from injury.
Think it's been widely acknowledged among the fanbase that he's been miles off it recently.
I'd still be interested to see how effective he'd be further forward, but it could just be that he's gone well past his best.
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Little bit unfair on Rowe I think. Played out of position since he came back into the team and it also looks like, we assume, he's not 100% fit. If he doesn't have a fitness issue then yes, he's not looking good. Would just like to see what he looks like playing in a more suitable role.
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Tommy seems to be slower in his thinking more than his physical speed. There was one situation early-ish in the game Tuesday where a Crawley long punt upfield was going out for a goal kick and Tommy was jogging along behind it to make sure it did. He carelessly stood off it by a couple of feet and the chasing striker just ghosted past him and back heeled it against Tommy for a corner. Gob-smackingly slack play.
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Rowe does seem to be gone. Hopefully he’s just playing with niggles out of necessity and with a bit of time he’s closer to the player we know.
Think DS should play Faulkner ahead of Rowe and use Rowe as experience from the bench till he’s actually fit
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He was our top scorer not long ago, God forbid we started him further forward & looked a bit more threatening.
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Close, Taylor, Anderson and Rowe. Probably our top earners? Certainly our four senior players in the squad. Lot of injuries there and loss of form.
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If they aren't our top earners, the recruitment over the past two years has been even worse than I thought.
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Copps said in his interview about building the team around Rowe and Anderson. I thought that was worrying. Yes good pros who it’s nice to have around the squad. They I would rather they aren’t expected to be 1st choice. Certainly can’t see Rowe been that player again. Hope I’m wrong
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Just revisiting this.
I said in March that the data said we were in big trouble. We picked up 4 points in the last 9 games after this.
Now the data is saying we’ve improved massively. We have to caveat all this in the near future due to the horrific injuries. In the short term we could really struggle until we get bodies back. In the medium term we will be ok. February to May is massive for us. A strong run in for us is needed so we can hit the ground running next season. I think it’s likely to happen.
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Although I have no understanding of xg and how it is calculated, I find these stats interesting, and more or less match our performances
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Interesting stuff Gaz. Thanks for posting that.
I'm going to take issue with some of what you said though, and in doing so, I'll be the lightning conductor again for some bile I suspect. But I can't help myself.
You're (rightly) pointing out that we have a horrific injury crisis. And it's absolutely right to view performances and results in that light. But we had a far worse crisis in terms of players available at the back end of last season, when things really collapsed.
Also, your figure screams very clearly that our data this season has only just briefly got up to the levels we were at for most of the period between matches 23-31 last year. I suspect that's because we are allowing so many more chances than the middle of last year, and not creating enough chnaces of our own to balance that. Is that right?
Whatever the reason, it puts an interesting perspective on the relative performances of Schofield and McCann. It looks like Schofield was, until the squad started falling apart and the wheels came off, actually quite effective at making us quite effective, even if it was grim to watch. My gut at the time said that we were being unfairly harsh on him, perhaps because some of us expected us to romp to promotion. Maybe part of the reason McCann is getting an easier time (more attractive football too, certainly) is because expectations are lower after last year? Having said that, it's now time for me to be retiring to the bunker.
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We were a low chance creation, more solid unit at our best under DS. Thats never going to be as easy on the eye as a higher chance creation, more open defensively team.
With DS, I couldn’t see where the improvement in front of goal was going to come from and I don’t think the players did either. That added to the demise when the system essentially started boring them too.
The solutions to McCann’s issues are potentially easier to find. We have to bin the 3 centre half system for me. More bodies defensively doesn’t necessarily mean more solidity. The amount of goals we concede by one of the centre halves getting dragged out of position and a deep runner exposing the space is incredible really.
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It’s shite, that’s what it is. Piss weak in defence and shipping goals pretty much every game.
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That’s really, really, really interesting stuff GazLaz.
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I don't think we needed a graph to tell us the centre halves were costing us goals.
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When DS took charge, my expectations were based on hope. When GM came, my expectations were based on belief.
I still haven’t given up on this season’s play off challenge (why does football make me think so naively at my age?), but I now accept that the problem isn’t laid just at the manager’s door.
The major difference between DS and GM is that I believe GM is still the one to take us up, eventually, but DS never was.
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We were a low chance creation, more solid unit at our best under DS. Thats never going to be as easy on the eye as a higher chance creation, more open defensively team.
With DS, I couldn’t see where the improvement in front of goal was going to come from and I don’t think the players did either. That added to the demise when the system essentially started boring them too.
The solutions to McCann’s issues are potentially easier to find. We have to bin the 3 centre half system for me. More bodies defensively doesn’t necessarily mean more solidity. The amount of goals we concede by one of the centre halves getting dragged out of position and a deep runner exposing the space is incredible really.
Interesting that our xG conceded suddenly went from actually very good to rapidly very bad from about match 30 last year (that was the win vs Barrow at home). That coincides with RS Williams getting injured (he didn't start a match between game 29 and game 45) and with Anderson having recurring injury problems (he started 6 of the last 17 games from match 30).
By the time we hit match 35, our defence was Olowu, Nelson and Rowe, with Brown and Seaman as wingbacks.
By match 40 it was Faulkner, Long and Nelson with Seaman and Molyneux at wingback.
Really not a surprise that we were offering lots of goal chances every week.
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RoShaun still free?
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I believe so - still don’t think he was as bad as he was made out to be, probably fit in ok in this team.
Be interesting to see how we fare with goals from set pieces, most other teams are dangerous and seem to have centre halves who can chip in with a few goals
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When DS took charge, my expectations were based on hope. When GM came, my expectations were based on belief.
I still haven’t given up on this season’s play off challenge (why does football make me think so naively at my age?), but I now accept that the problem isn’t laid just at the manager’s door.
The major difference between DS and GM is that I believe GM is still the one to take us up, eventually, but DS never was.
The major difference between McCann and DS (and Sheffers and Wellens) is that he's convinced Terry to splash the cash.
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I believe so - still don’t think he was as bad as he was made out to be, probably fit in ok in this team.
Be interesting to see how we fare with goals from set pieces, most other teams are dangerous and seem to have centre halves who can chip in with a few goals
His problem was you never knew when he was going to drop an absolute bollock. But overall, the numbers speak for themselves. We were a far better defensive unit with him than without him.
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Thanks for this Gazlaz - very interesting. My interpretation: -
McSheffrey - the start last season (14pts from 6 games) looks even more unrepresentative against performances than I thought even in hindsight.
Dismissing him still looks the right decision.
Schofield - we got the usual new manager bounce on appointing him which he sustained for a time before things fell off a cliff. And that fall preceded the major injury crisis at season end.
Dismissing him is confirmed as an absolute no-brainer - esp allied with the major fall in season ticket sales retaining him strongly looked like causing.
McCannn - the start this season (2pts from 7 games) was as bad as the performance data suggest. But he has overseen virtual continual progress through the season (despite what recent form in terms of points suggests).
It's fair to be asking why overall we're seemingly not performing as well as last year despite additional investment but whilst performances are improving (though we need to expect a short term drop off given the current injury situation) he is very much deserving of continued support.
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Is there hard empirical evidence of this "usual new manager bounce"?
Morecambe didn't have one. Before last Satdi, obviously.
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Is there hard empirical evidence of this "usual new manager bounce"?
Morecambe didn't have one. Before last Satdi, obviously.
Unfortunately Bradford seem to be having one :headbang:
www.goal.com/en-gb/news/what-is-new-manager-bounce-in-football/blt73eb2750d6754abc
Premier League but to quote from the above: -
"According to a Premier League report, since the start of 2017/18, there were 26 managerial changes in the top-flight competition in four complete seasons."
"If we go by statistics and data, the 'new manager bounce' phenomenon is actually real. Of the 26 managerial changes that took place, 20 of them averaged more points per match (ppm) in his first five matches in charge than his predecessor. In nine cases, the new man doubled the previous points average or did even better than that."
Of course a manager is more likely to be sacked after a poor run of results which is more likely to occur against better teams. If this occurs the following matches, on average, are statistically likely to be against relatively weaker teams.
Not that that matters here as Gazlaz's stats don't take into account the ability of opponents.
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It's just that we didn't get one when we recruited Moore. We'd just made the playoffs, and were rarely at that level of performance in Moore's first half season.
Or Butler. He lost 7 of his first 11 games.
Or Wellens. He lost 7 of his first 9 games.
Or McSheffrey. He lost 7 of his first 8 games.
So I'm wondering what was "usual" about Schofield's good start?
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Billy
You asked for empirical evidence.
You were given empirical evidence.
You ignore the empirical evidence because it doesn't fit your view.
"Usual" doesn't mean all the time. The 4 instances you quote: -
- 2 taking over in the close season. One where we lost our most consistent goalscorer in 50 years. One where the budget was cut considerably.
- 2 totally inexperienced managers taking over from managers with some experience and track record of previous success at a time of on-field crisis.
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BTW I'm not using the "new manager bounce" to dismiss Schofield's initial impact.
He clearly, at least initially, got the players motivated and working hard (remember the Stevenage game).
He also radically altered the way the team was tactically set up to play. Which initially improved performances.
Sadly this didn't last.
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Is there hard empirical evidence of this "usual new manager bounce"?
Morecambe didn't have one. Before last Satdi, obviously.
Nearly always the “bounce” is after managers get the sack when underlying data is good but results poor. Results then revert to where they should be based on performances. Can’t prove it obviously but I think it’s generally down to that extra few percent focus the new manager brings. Generally more to it than a new manager though.
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Branton.
There have been thousands of managerial changes in my lifetime. I'm not sure that a selection of 26 in one league is entirely representative. Of course, my selection of four (five actually - I missed McCann this season: a new manager who came with a huge investment and saw no bounce) of our recent ones isn't either.
What interests me is that Gaz's data supports what we saw with our eyes - Schofield's effect was to make us tighter, defensively. That appears to have been a long term effect. Again, we saw it with our own eyes. We were solid, but really dull.
And the collapse in that effect coincided with us losing our two most effective centre halves.
Might well be confirmation bias, but it supports what I've been saying all year. Schofield was nowhere near the disaster he's commonly believed to be. He was grimly effective with a shit hand, but couldn't do much when the shit melted and ran between his fingers.
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Great you’ve typed until you’ve convinced yourself you’re right. He still got sacked and he’s still got one of the worst records going.
No amount of nuisance or asking for stats then discounting them will make anyone other than you think he was decent.
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Peterborough was a battling performance, but it was only when rovers got a goal back did we see a real diff. The play became more direct and confidence grew.
Putting an exact finger on downturn in results is difficult though.
But I do wish rovers were a little more direct in the final third. And i can’t help but thinking the lack of overall directness is directly linked to levels of confidence. Or lack of.
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Branton.
There have been thousands of managerial changes in my lifetime. I'm not sure that a selection of 26 in one league is entirely representative. Of course, my selection of four (five actually - I missed McCann this season: a new manager who came with a huge investment and saw no bounce) of our recent ones isn't either.
What interests me is that Gaz's data supports what we saw with our eyes - Schofield's effect was to make us tighter, defensively. That appears to have been a long term effect. Again, we saw it with our own eyes. We were solid, but really dull.
And the collapse in that effect coincided with us losing our two most effective centre halves.
Might well be confirmation bias, but it supports what I've been saying all year. Schofield was nowhere near the disaster he's commonly believed to be. He was grimly effective with a shit hand, but couldn't do much when the shit melted and ran between his fingers.
Schofield WAS a disastrous appointment.
The feeling around the club was awful. He offered nothing that gave us any kind of hope or encouragement or belief.
No statistics or data analysis can account for the human touch. He was hugely responsible for a depressing negativity that ran through the club.
Nice bloke, I’m sure, but utterly out of his depth in that role.
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Think we can say Schofield was the wrong man for the job, but you could argue there was no right man for the job with the state we were in.
He inherited a poor, bloated squad full of sick notes. Years of baggage from previous regimes that we're still in the process of sorting. A horrendous injury crisis. Bugger all support on recruitment from those above him, with no money to spend. Our signings were dreadful. And all these problems were knotted together, so there's no easy fix. Maybe Schofield was a poor manager as well. We were never going to properly find out in those circumstances though. Pep Guardiola couldn't have turned us around at the end of the season.
Having said that it's no contest between him and McCann. McCann is proven quality. Schofield hasn't proven anything - but I do have some sympathy with him being the scapegoat for last season.
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Think we can say Schofield was the wrong man for the job, but you could argue there was no right man for the job with the state we were in.
He inherited a poor, bloated squad full of sick notes. Years of baggage from previous regimes that we're still in the process of sorting. A horrendous injury crisis. Bugger all support on recruitment from those above him, with no money to spend. Our signings were dreadful. And all these problems were knotted together, so there's no easy fix. Maybe Schofield was a poor manager as well. We were never going to properly find out in those circumstances though. Pep Guardiola couldn't have turned us around at the end of the season.
Having said that it's no contest between him and McCann. McCann is proven quality. Schofield hasn't proven anything - but I do have some sympathy with him being the scapegoat for last season.
This. My take is that, given how we have struggled to punch our weight this season with a large investment in the squad that Schofield never had, it is very unfair to scapegoat him for last season's performance. We'll never know what he would have been like as a manager for us, given anything like a half decent squad to work with over an extended period. But the fact that he got the squad he inherited winning 25 points from his first 16 games before the injuries destroyed us says he wasn't a shambles. Yes, the football was grim, but that's a better run than anything the previous 3 managers had managed, and on a par with what McCann has done with a much better squad. I really do think that some of the vitriol thrown his way is not a good reflection on this place.
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I think in 10 years when we look back it will be proven that DS is a decent coach but without the capacity to run a football club. Thats what we brought him in as though. He had a head of football to run the club and was essentially let down by him, albeit we didn’t give that experiment long to ride out. McSheffrey (and Butler) is likely to be the one we look back at and wonder “what the f**k were we doing then?”.
Grant is a very capable manager. The best we’ve had since Sean. It is a case of brushing the structural issues under the carpet for a short period though. I think Grant can possibly paper over the cracks in most departments while he is here. What we do when he leaves is the $64,000 question though. We made steps towards creating a sustainable structure but we scrapped that in the blink of an eye. That’s just another indicator that we don’t really have a medium to long term plan. Without said plan we can’t have medium to long term success, it’s as simple as that. Head of medical!!! What a waste of a wage that is. Paying Coppinger to do something and nothing, waste of a wage, jack of all trades master of none situation there.
I could find the club a data quant on 30k a year that would add more value to the football club than Coppinger and the medicine man put together. This is not just a DRFC issue admittedly, the point stands for 90% of the clubs in the country.
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If Schofield becomes a remotely successful manager at this level or above, I will be very, very surprised.
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If Schofield becomes a remotely successful manager at this level or above, I will be very, very surprised.
He will prove to be a decent coach/ assistant. Unlikely to be a good No1 as you say.
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He was supposed to be a top coach, even criticized some players technical ability, never once did any of the coaching staff while he was here take those players for one on one coaching sessions, or offer any advice how to overcome any problems.
He had half the team trying to play a system they were not equipped for, one of footballs all time great educated idiots.
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Schofield preferred to bury his head in the sand after a bad loss than to face uncomfortable truths.
It is for this reason that he would have got us relegated this year had he stayed. Everybody would have worked out The Process while he stood still.
He was also incredibly tedious and unlikeable.
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I think in 10 years when we look back it will be proven that DS is a decent coach but without the capacity to run a football club. Thats what we brought him in as though. He had a head of football to run the club and was essentially let down by him, albeit we didn’t give that experiment long to ride out. McSheffrey (and Butler) is likely to be the one we look back at and wonder “what the f**k were we doing then?”.
Grant is a very capable manager. The best we’ve had since Sean. It is a case of brushing the structural issues under the carpet for a short period though. I think Grant can possibly paper over the cracks in most departments while he is here. What we do when he leaves is the $64,000 question though. We made steps towards creating a sustainable structure but we scrapped that in the blink of an eye. That’s just another indicator that we don’t really have a medium to long term plan. Without said plan we can’t have medium to long term success, it’s as simple as that. Head of medical!!! What a waste of a wage that is. Paying Coppinger to do something and nothing, waste of a wage, jack of all trades master of none situation there.
I could find the club a data quant on 30k a year that would add more value to the football club than Coppinger and the medicine man put together. This is not just a DRFC issue admittedly, the point stands for 90% of the clubs in the country.
Wouldn't disagree.
Perhaps worth noting that none of the managers we've appointed since Moore have had any managerial experience of the divisions they've been managing in. You can even see that with McCann who has tried to adopt a footballing philosophy but probably now realises that L2 is, in the main, a physical league. However, I think he's a savvy manager and that from this point on we'll see more emphasis on that in terms of recruitment and team development.
The other change needed is that the footballing side of things needs to be run with a far greater passion; I hope TB brings this back. Blunt, as Chairman, was an unmitigated disaster; please God never let an accountant lead the club again.
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The quality of the goalkeeping is surely a facto as well as the performance of the defenders. And overall Mitchell was better than Jones. Mitchell got a lot of stick for some blunders towards the end of the season, but before that he was less likely to be excused by the oft-repeated and sympathetic phrase: “Jones had no chance”.
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The quality of the goalkeeping is surely a facto as well as the performance of the defenders. And overall Mitchell was better than Jones. Mitchell got a lot of stick for some blunders towards the end of the season, but before that he was less likely to be excused by the oft-repeated and sympathetic phrase: “Jones had no chance”.
Shock horror of the day.
A ForsolongaRover post criticising Louis Jones.
Who would have believed it?
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Even before the shit hit the fan with Schofield, his dad told me, and I quote "he's got f**k all money to play with and they're expecting him to have a go at promotion. Our Danny says he's working with Sunday league players".
I couldn't say anything at the time obviously but I knew then that we were in the shit.
I do think that Schofield tried a system and a way of playing that didn't suit the players or the division we are in.
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Even before the shit hit the fan with Schofield, his dad told me, and I quote "he's got f**k all money to play with and they're expecting him to have a go at promotion. Our Danny says he's working with Sunday league players".
I couldn't say anything at the time obviously but I knew then that we were in the shit.
I do think that Schofield tried a system and a way of playing that didn't suit the players or the division we are in.
Managers are generally only as good as their players. People talk about formations, tactics, good managers, bad managers, confidence, bla bla bla, but players are the vast majority of it. It’s the reason we are currently not a great side.
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Ben Whiteman left 3 years ago.
Since then, what fees have we received for players?
Those three children who went to Leeds and Man Utd. Ben Blythe. Knoyle at end of his contract.
Arguably Knoyle only one we have actually improved in any way and had him move to a bigger side, albeit for pennies given his contract remaining.
All the discussion about Club Doncaster and sustainability noticeably avoids the truth that our terrible recruitment means not only do the teams not perform and we go backwards, losing support on the way, but we hardly ever monetise any talent these days to deliver funds for future recruitment. This is at the very heart of why we are so terrible.
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I wouldn’t say even say we improved Knoyle. He was in the L2 team of the year before we signed him from Cambridge and he’s still at L2 level still now.
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True, although he went to a bigger club, albeit at the same level. They have money to burn seemingly and signed him, even if for relative pennies.
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Funny how much trouble some people will go to to try to convince us all that things have improved from last season, including complicated stats.
After 22 games last season W9 D4 L9 = 31 points and 10th in table.
After 22 games this season W7 D3 L12 = 24 points and 20th in table.
Certainly, these players have no respect for McCann even though he recruited most of them. We need a massive clear out.
IMO the problem is underfunding of the first XI and too much funding of charity and community projects. Wrexham prove what sufficient funding can achieve. Will Bramall rectify the situation? We can only wait and see, but we are undeniably dire at the moment and have been for far too long. It will be interesting to see what techniques will be employed next spring to encourage fans to buy season tickets for next season now that Ryan has tried a ST lottery and book signings.
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Funny how much trouble some people will go to to try to convince us all that things have improved from last season, including complicated stats.
After 22 games last season W9 D4 L9 = 31 points and 10th in table.
After 22 games this season W7 D3 L12 = 24 points and 20th in table.
Certainly, these players have no respect for McCann even though he recruited most of them. We need a massive clear out.
IMO the problem is underfunding of the first XI and too much funding of charity and community projects. Wrexham prove what sufficient funding can achieve. Will Bramall rectify the situation? We can only wait and see, but we are undeniably dire at the moment and have been for far too long. It will be interesting to see what techniques will be employed next spring to encourage fans to buy season tickets for next season now that Ryan has tried a ST lottery and book signings.
Underfunding of the first XI?
We kept the vast majority of last season's players and added 12 new ones. How much do you think we are paying on the playing squad?
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It feels like our relative budget started to moderate after Ferguson got us back into League One after he had got us relegated first, and we managed to keep touch for a while as he was able to recruit well, even if he was unable to manage them properly.
Then McCann got appointed into a decent squad, made a very small number of excellent recruitment decisions (mainly loans). Then he left and Moore arrived, who through brutal use of the loan system made us very competitive for a period, at the expense of not actually owning any or many of our best players.
Since then it has been relative moderation in playing budgets and this coupled with truly terrible recruitment decisions and no (zero) monetisation of note, has mean we have collapsed. We shouldn't expect huge transfer budgets by any stretch but we should expect good use of the budget we have, which clearly has not happened now for several seasons.
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BST, 12 new players who are not good enough (as only the blind can't see) is NOT putting in enough money for GOOD players to get up the table. At Meet The Owners all we hear is baffling sports science that is not working and Bramall talking about his charity and community work. The first XI is not his priority but it is what the fans care about. I stand by what I said.
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Funny how much trouble some people will go to to try to convince us all that things have improved from last season, including complicated stats.
After 22 games last season W9 D4 L9 = 31 points and 10th in table.
After 22 games this season W7 D3 L12 = 24 points and 20th in table.
Certainly, these players have no respect for McCann even though he recruited most of them. We need a massive clear out.
IMO the problem is underfunding of the first XI and too much funding of charity and community projects. Wrexham prove what sufficient funding can achieve. Will Bramall rectify the situation? We can only wait and see, but we are undeniably dire at the moment and have been for far too long. It will be interesting to see what techniques will be employed next spring to encourage fans to buy season tickets for next season now that Ryan has tried a ST lottery and book signings.
Underfunding of the first XI?
We kept the vast majority of last season's players and added 12 new ones. How much do you think we are paying on the playing squad?
The budget is up on last season but if you are not getting value for money it’s fairly irrelevant isn’t it. Our strike rate with signings just isn’t good enough.
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I'd guess the budget must be up at least £0.5m on last year. Probably closer to double that. VFM is absolutely the key thing though.
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The plan has gone to shit but that doesn’t mean all the signings in the summer aren’t up to standard.
I think Ironside Faal Nixon* Senior Westbrooke and Bailey have looked like very competent league 2 players.
No pace up front. Wingers were duds. The legs in midfield (Broadbent) wasn’t first XI ready and in the case of Rowe the legs have gone. The full backs capable of crossing and the defensive leader capable of organising the defence have been injured.
*edit
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The main problem is contracts were given out to players whilst McCann wasn't here.
Ironside, Faal, Bailey so far are really good signings
Senior and Nixon have done okay in games too. Sterry who knows yet
The rest not so much so.
If we were doing player of the season it would be a pick from the 3 good signings from the whole squad.
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Funny how much trouble some people will go to to try to convince us all that things have improved from last season, including complicated stats.
After 22 games last season W9 D4 L9 = 31 points and 10th in table.
After 22 games this season W7 D3 L12 = 24 points and 20th in table.
Certainly, these players have no respect for McCann even though he recruited most of them. We need a massive clear out.
IMO the problem is underfunding of the first XI and too much funding of charity and community projects. Wrexham prove what sufficient funding can achieve. Will Bramall rectify the situation? We can only wait and see, but we are undeniably dire at the moment and have been for far too long. It will be interesting to see what techniques will be employed next spring to encourage fans to buy season tickets for next season now that Ryan has tried a ST lottery and book signings.
Underfunding of the first XI?
We kept the vast majority of last season's players and added 12 new ones. How much do you think we are paying on the playing squad?
The budget is up on last season but if you are not getting value for money it’s fairly irrelevant isn’t it. Our strike rate with signings just isn’t good enough.
So with Wrexham's budget and Grant McCann as manager, do you not think Rovers would be in the top 3, because I do?
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Funny how much trouble some people will go to to try to convince us all that things have improved from last season, including complicated stats.
After 22 games last season W9 D4 L9 = 31 points and 10th in table.
After 22 games this season W7 D3 L12 = 24 points and 20th in table.
Certainly, these players have no respect for McCann even though he recruited most of them. We need a massive clear out.
IMO the problem is underfunding of the first XI and too much funding of charity and community projects. Wrexham prove what sufficient funding can achieve. Will Bramall rectify the situation? We can only wait and see, but we are undeniably dire at the moment and have been for far too long. It will be interesting to see what techniques will be employed next spring to encourage fans to buy season tickets for next season now that Ryan has tried a ST lottery and book signings.
Underfunding of the first XI?
We kept the vast majority of last season's players and added 12 new ones. How much do you think we are paying on the playing squad?
The budget is up on last season but if you are not getting value for money it’s fairly irrelevant isn’t it. Our strike rate with signings just isn’t good enough.
So with Wrexham's budget and Grant McCann as manager, do you not think Rovers would be in the top 3, because I do?
Not if the budget was spent badly we wouldn't.
Any amount of money is only as good as how it's spent, and for some time we've been guilty of spending badly by recruiting poorly.
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Funny how much trouble some people will go to to try to convince us all that things have improved from last season, including complicated stats.
After 22 games last season W9 D4 L9 = 31 points and 10th in table.
After 22 games this season W7 D3 L12 = 24 points and 20th in table.
Certainly, these players have no respect for McCann even though he recruited most of them. We need a massive clear out.
IMO the problem is underfunding of the first XI and too much funding of charity and community projects. Wrexham prove what sufficient funding can achieve. Will Bramall rectify the situation? We can only wait and see, but we are undeniably dire at the moment and have been for far too long. It will be interesting to see what techniques will be employed next spring to encourage fans to buy season tickets for next season now that Ryan has tried a ST lottery and book signings.
Underfunding of the first XI?
We kept the vast majority of last season's players and added 12 new ones. How much do you think we are paying on the playing squad?
The budget is up on last season but if you are not getting value for money it’s fairly irrelevant isn’t it. Our strike rate with signings just isn’t good enough.
So with Wrexham's budget and Grant McCann as manager, do you not think Rovers would be in the top 3, because I do?
Clearly Barrow have Wrexham's budget then? With an experienced FL manager?
What should the budget be to buy our way out of League 2?
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Budget isn’t everything.
We need players with character and a winning mentality.
Barrow will have one of the 5 lowest budgets in this league I expect and they are 2nd in the league with 5 consecutive wins behind them.
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Funny how much trouble some people will go to to try to convince us all that things have improved from last season, including complicated stats.
After 22 games last season W9 D4 L9 = 31 points and 10th in table.
After 22 games this season W7 D3 L12 = 24 points and 20th in table.
Certainly, these players have no respect for McCann even though he recruited most of them. We need a massive clear out.
IMO the problem is underfunding of the first XI and too much funding of charity and community projects. Wrexham prove what sufficient funding can achieve. Will Bramall rectify the situation? We can only wait and see, but we are undeniably dire at the moment and have been for far too long. It will be interesting to see what techniques will be employed next spring to encourage fans to buy season tickets for next season now that Ryan has tried a ST lottery and book signings.
How can you conclude that the players “have no respect for McCann” purely from our record this season?
There are umpteen factors that can go into this, one of which is that a lot of our players aren’t good enough, or fit enough, or both.
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Funny how much trouble some people will go to to try to convince us all that things have improved from last season, including complicated stats.
After 22 games last season W9 D4 L9 = 31 points and 10th in table.
After 22 games this season W7 D3 L12 = 24 points and 20th in table.
Certainly, these players have no respect for McCann even though he recruited most of them. We need a massive clear out.
IMO the problem is underfunding of the first XI and too much funding of charity and community projects. Wrexham prove what sufficient funding can achieve. Will Bramall rectify the situation? We can only wait and see, but we are undeniably dire at the moment and have been for far too long. It will be interesting to see what techniques will be employed next spring to encourage fans to buy season tickets for next season now that Ryan has tried a ST lottery and book signings.
McCann didn’t recruit the majority of them that’s one of the biggest problems
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Any chance of an update on both charts Gaz, when today's figures get added?
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Any chance of an update on both charts Gaz, when today's figures get added?
I’ll do it tomorrow. I know there was improvement in recent weeks prior to today.
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As of this weekend…
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Just noticed this. Cheers for the update.
No points for guessing when Close/Westbrooke played together. No news on Close currently but it didn't sound too bad and with Westbrooke back soon hopefully they'll both be together for this run of easier fixtures. We really need to add another option for those two in the summer, crazy we didn't in January TBF.
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Update.
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Update.
Fascinating.
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So, what is this update telling us?
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We’ve been on an upward trend and last half dozen games we have just about deserved to win each of them.
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Just noticed this. Cheers for the update.
No points for guessing when Close/Westbrooke played together. No news on Close currently but it didn't sound too bad and with Westbrooke back soon hopefully they'll both be together for this run of easier fixtures. We really need to add another option for those two in the summer, crazy we didn't in January TBF.
It would be interesting to plot the injuries on that timeline.
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Great to see the overall trend line though!!
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homework for Gaz Laz
from his financial point of view it would be interesting for him to apply the above "techniques " to both teams he selected to win this division
Stockport County ( slow start to the season - warp drive form and now mid table performances - can't score a goal )- and as for the imploding Notts County I warned you all about them in early December (yawn) - so no homework needed on them