Viking Supporters Co-operative
Viking Chat => Off Topic => Topic started by: Branton Red on September 02, 2023, 07:42:11 pm
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1/9/23 The ONS updates 2020 and 2021 GDP growth figures www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/articles/impactofbluebook2023changesongrossdomesticproduct/2023-09-01
- GDP fell 10.4% in 2020 (Covid year) - not 11.0% as previously reported
- GDP rose 8.7% in 2021 - not 7.6% as previously reported
This means: -
1) Instead of the UK economy still now being smaller than pre-pandemic. Actually it was higher than pre-pandemic levels as early as the end of 2021.
2) Since the start of 2020 the UK is not the slowest growing economy in the G7. Actually it has grown considerably faster than Germany and at a similar rate to France and Italy.
3) Since 2016 it was previously thought the UK economy had grown at a similar rate to France and Germany but faster than Italy. Actually since 2016 the UK has grown faster than each of Germany, France and Italy.
All this despite the UK economy being hit harder by Covid in 2020 than these other economies (due to the UK's higher reliance on service industries).
Also many economists (inc the IMF www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=287684.0) believe the UK will economically out perform much of the rest of Western Europe in the second half of the current decade.
Would/could the UK economy have performed even better if we'd stayed in the EU? Yes. However the comparative data against other countries suggests any such betterment could only sensibly be relatively small.
The economic impact of Brexit has provably been incredibly mild.
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1/9/23 The ONS updates 2020 and 2021 GDP growth figures www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/articles/impactofbluebook2023changesongrossdomesticproduct/2023-09-01
- GDP fell 10.4% in 2020 (Covid year) - not 11.0% as previously reported
- GDP rose 8.7% in 2021 - not 7.6% as previously reported
This means: -
1) Instead of the UK economy still now being smaller than pre-pandemic. Actually it was higher than pre-pandemic levels as early as the end of 2021.
2) Since the start of 2020 the UK is not the slowest growing economy in the G7. Actually it has grown considerably faster than Germany and at a similar rate to France and Italy.
3) Since 2016 it was previously thought the UK economy had grown at a similar rate to France and Germany but faster than Italy. Actually since 2016 the UK has grown faster than each of Germany, France and Italy.
All this despite the UK economy being hit harder by Covid in 2020 than these other economies (due to the UK's higher reliance on service industries).
Also many economists (inc the IMF www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=287684.0) believe the UK will economically out perform much of the rest of Western Europe in the second half of the current decade.
Would/could the UK economy have performed even better if we'd stayed in the UK? Yes. However the comparative data against other countries suggests any such betterment could only sensibly be relatively small.
The economic impact of Brexit has provably been incredibly mild.
Wait for the cavalry.
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1/9/23 The ONS updates 2020 and 2021 GDP growth figures www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/articles/impactofbluebook2023changesongrossdomesticproduct/2023-09-01
- GDP fell 10.4% in 2020 (Covid year) - not 11.0% as previously reported
- GDP rose 8.7% in 2021 - not 7.6% as previously reported
This means: -
1) Instead of the UK economy still now being smaller than pre-pandemic. Actually it was higher than pre-pandemic levels as early as the end of 2021.
2) Since the start of 2020 the UK is not the slowest growing economy in the G7. Actually it has grown considerably faster than Germany and at a similar rate to France and Italy.
3) Since 2016 it was previously thought the UK economy had grown at a similar rate to France and Germany but faster than Italy. Actually since 2016 the UK has grown faster than each of Germany, France and Italy.
All this despite the UK economy being hit harder by Covid in 2020 than these other economies (due to the UK's higher reliance on service industries).
Also many economists (inc the IMF www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=287684.0) believe the UK will economically out perform much of the rest of Western Europe in the second half of the current decade.
Would/could the UK economy have performed even better if we'd stayed in the UK? Yes. However the comparative data against other countries suggests any such betterment could only sensibly be relatively small.
The economic impact of Brexit has provably been incredibly mild.
Popcorn at the ready .
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ONS revising their figures around covid recovery shows justification of Brexit. Well OK if you say so..
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ONS revising their figures around covid recovery shows justification of Brexit. Well OK if you say so..
What these revised figures show is that between 2016 (year of the referendum) and 2022 comparative economic growth figures for the 4 biggest European economies were as follows: -
UK 9.5%; France 8.3%; Germany 7.8%; Italy 5.5%
And for 2020 (year we left the EU) to the end of 2022 the comparative growth figures were: -
UK 1.3%; Italy 1.0%; France 0.9%; Germany 0.6%
And that is despite the UK suffering more than these economies from Covid in 2020 when comparative economic falls were: -
UK -10.4%; Italy -9.0%; France -7.9%; Germany -3.7%
www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD for the data (2020 and 2021 updated for UK as per OP)
Therefore there is simply no sensible argument to be had that Brexit has been an economic nightmare.
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The UK tends to zigzag more. Economically we don't try to flatten out the hits as much as they do in Europe. The highs are higher the lows are lower and it tends to happen faster here.
You need to take a longer term overview.
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The UK tends to zigzag more. Economically we don't try to flatten out the hits as much as they do in Europe. The highs are higher the lows are lower and it tends to happen faster here.
You need to take a longer term overview.
Ok if 7 years from 2016-2022 isn't long enough for you.
Using IMF forecast data comparative estimated economic growth for 2016 through to 2028 (13 years): -
UK 19.6%; France 18.0%; Germany 15.7%; Italy 11.6%
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The UK tends to zigzag more. Economically we don't try to flatten out the hits as much as they do in Europe. The highs are higher the lows are lower and it tends to happen faster here.
You need to take a longer term overview.
Ok if 7 years from 2016-2022 isn't long enough for you.
Using IMF forecast data comparative estimated economic growth for 2016 through to 2028 (13 years): -
UK 19.6%; France 18.0%; Germany 15.7%; Italy 11.6%
The Conservative party don't trust economic forecasts from the likes of the IMF.
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what I don't understand is what has brexit changed that could possibly have improved the UK's economy?
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what I don't understand is what has brexit changed that could possibly have improved the UK's economy?
Brexit doesn't change the economy that much. In fact it certainly makes things more difficult for the UK.
What it does do, for better or worse is give us more political Independance.
When Gove tore up EU rules on nutrient neutrality regarding housing development, despite personally promising the UK would not backtrack on environmental legislation... It made me understand we've been had.
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what I don't understand is what has brexit changed that could possibly have improved the UK's economy?
Brexit doesn't change the economy that much. In fact it certainly makes things more difficult for the UK.
What it does do, for better or worse is give us more political Independance.
When Gove tore up EU rules on nutrient neutrality regarding housing development, despite personally promising the UK would not backtrack on environmental legislation... It made me understand we've been had.
Exactly this, it's driving with the handbrake on.
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what I don't understand is what has brexit changed that could possibly have improved the UK's economy?
Brexit doesn't change the economy that much. In fact it certainly makes things more difficult for the UK.
What it does do, for better or worse is give us more political Independance.
When Gove tore up EU rules on nutrient neutrality regarding housing development, despite personally promising the UK would not backtrack on environmental legislation... It made me understand we've been had.
Exactly this, it's driving with the handbrake on.
I didn't mind. I believe we are in a very steadily shrinking global economy, or about to embark on that. I felt localism and political Independance was important.
These days, I've given up. Watching the weird weather and ever increasing temperatures... Well make your own mind up.
Never mind the fact there's hardly any growth in the global economy because ecoñomic rescources are being exhausted.
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''Would/could the UK economy have performed even better if we'd stayed in the EU? Yes. However the comparative data against other countries suggests any such betterment could only sensibly be relatively small.
The economic impact of Brexit has provably been incredibly mild''
To speak directly to this Branton, and I don't wish to be a doomsayer over the economy, but the few points I can think of where efficiencies could possibly improve are where hundreds (maybe thousands) of smaller businesses have cut production or closed this has been taken up by the uk's larger enterprises. The other is possibly less people travelling to Europe for hols.
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What Brexit has done is allow the government to scrap environmental protection regulations so that companies & farmers can dump raw sewage in rivers & across beaches & allow housebuilders to build where they want.
What it hasn't done is help British production & manufacturing output which has fallen for the past 13 months straight. As the new figures show:
For example, according to the previous data, the gross value added to the economy by agriculture increased by 11.7 per cent between the date of the Brexit referendum in 2016 and the end of 2021. Yet the new data shows a contraction of 7 per cent.
And this is by no means the biggest change. Basic iron and steel manufacturing increased by 56 per cent between 2019 and the end of 2021, according to the previous figures. The update changed that to a 66 per cent decline.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-economy-gdp-growth-jeremy-hunt-b2403325.html
https://www.ft.com/content/19746fd9-d5d0-4e02-920c-745611705ecf
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The UK tends to zigzag more. Economically we don't try to flatten out the hits as much as they do in Europe. The highs are higher the lows are lower and it tends to happen faster here.
You need to take a longer term overview.
Ok if 7 years from 2016-2022 isn't long enough for you.
Using IMF forecast data comparative estimated economic growth for 2016 through to 2028 (13 years): -
UK 19.6%; France 18.0%; Germany 15.7%; Italy 11.6%
Were the IMF estimates made before or after the glorious Liz Truss era?
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The UK tends to zigzag more. Economically we don't try to flatten out the hits as much as they do in Europe. The highs are higher the lows are lower and it tends to happen faster here.
You need to take a longer term overview.
Ok if 7 years from 2016-2022 isn't long enough for you.
Using IMF forecast data comparative estimated economic growth for 2016 through to 2028 (13 years): -
UK 19.6%; France 18.0%; Germany 15.7%; Italy 11.6%
Were the IMF estimates made before or after the glorious Liz Truss era?
After
In April 2023 - click on the link I provided.
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Are these gdp figures still accurate Branton?
https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN02784/SN02784.pdf
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I became interested in INEOS after the thread about their CEO, ‘Yorkshires Richest man!
I did some reading and this is interesting
https://www.ineos.com/big-boats/
They took a gamble in 2010 and realised that most of Europe had become totally dependant on Cheap Russian Oil and Gas.
They used German, Danish and Spanish technology to design the largest Ethanol transporters ever built, they had the Fleet built in a Yard in China, the ships burn their own Cargo for propulsion, BAKKEN Shale Oil and Ethanol gas are Produced 300 miles inland from the Philadelphia area Coat, they secured a Pipe line and developed the Marcus Hook Facility near Philadelphia, they then, invested heavily in Grangemouth and also in Norway,when the fleet went into service circa 2016 they started to import Ethanol into Grangemouth and Also Norway, our UK gas market prices made this economically viable …Boom!!!! We get the pandemic and fuel prices rocket,it has an effect on the UK but boy it hammered Germany, Italy, and France. Then we have the War and that has dealt a crippling blow to the German economy,as they were still totally reliant on Russian Oil and Gas, they then had to buy on the competitive World market and this has had massive consequences for their industrial out put, France also took a hit as half their nuclear capacity was out of service, due to long term maintenance, the Gamble paid off for INEOS and they have been making money hand over fist. They have also recently purchased their own oil field in the BAKKEN Shale deposit for $1.4 billion. Thereby securing their supplies, watch their growth I don’t doubt that they will buy several more fields. When you Google them they have their fingers in lots of pies.
Well worth looking at if you are into buying shares!
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The UK tends to zigzag more. Economically we don't try to flatten out the hits as much as they do in Europe. The highs are higher the lows are lower and it tends to happen faster here.
You need to take a longer term overview.
Ok if 7 years from 2016-2022 isn't long enough for you.
Using IMF forecast data comparative estimated economic growth for 2016 through to 2028 (13 years): -
UK 19.6%; France 18.0%; Germany 15.7%; Italy 11.6%
Were the IMF estimates made before or after the glorious Liz Truss era?
After
In April 2023 - click on the link I provided.
This one?
https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/GBR#featured
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Are these gdp figures still accurate Branton?
https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN02784/SN02784.pdf
No - the bar chart is now wrong as the ONS has massively upgraded UK GDP growth for 2020 and 2021 - see my OP.
Now for 2020 (year we left the EU) to the end of 2022 the comparative growth figures were: -
UK 1.3%; Italy 1.0%; France 0.9%; Germany 0.6%
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The UK tends to zigzag more. Economically we don't try to flatten out the hits as much as they do in Europe. The highs are higher the lows are lower and it tends to happen faster here.
You need to take a longer term overview.
Ok if 7 years from 2016-2022 isn't long enough for you.
Using IMF forecast data comparative estimated economic growth for 2016 through to 2028 (13 years): -
UK 19.6%; France 18.0%; Germany 15.7%; Italy 11.6%
Were the IMF estimates made before or after the glorious Liz Truss era?
After
In April 2023 - click on the link I provided.
This one?
https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/GBR#featured
Glyn
This is best to use for comparatives www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD - an interactive map by year. 2020 and 2021 figures for the UK having since been updated as per the OP
The IMF also later upgraded it's UK 2023 forecast from -0.3 to +0.4 - as per the link you provided
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The UK tends to zigzag more. Economically we don't try to flatten out the hits as much as they do in Europe. The highs are higher the lows are lower and it tends to happen faster here.
You need to take a longer term overview.
Ok if 7 years from 2016-2022 isn't long enough for you.
Using IMF forecast data comparative estimated economic growth for 2016 through to 2028 (13 years): -
UK 19.6%; France 18.0%; Germany 15.7%; Italy 11.6%
Were the IMF estimates made before or after the glorious Liz Truss era?
After
In April 2023 - click on the link I provided.
This one?
https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/GBR#featured
Glyn
This is best to use for comparatives www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD - an interactive map by year. 2020 and 2021 figures for the UK having since been updated as per the OP
The IMF also later upgraded it's UK 2023 forecast from -0.3 to +0.4 - as per the link you provided
That only goes up to the present, where's the forecasts to 2028 you're talking about? That's what I've been looking for.
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Glyn
Scroll down the page slightly. Click on the green box that says 2023 just under the world map and drag to the right to get 2024-28 forecast data
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Glyn
Scroll down the page slightly. Click on the green box that says 2023 just under the world map and drag to the right to get 2024-28 forecast data
That just shows the estimate per year (ie UK growth 2028 forecast at 1.5%), not overall from 2016 to 2028.
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Making some very uncomfortable reading for certain individuals on this thread.
Its very noticeable that certain others are keeping their heads very much down rather than thrash about like some others, looking for some salvation.
You can hear the veritable gnashing of teeth from here.!!
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Glyn
Scroll down the page slightly. Click on the green box that says 2023 just under the world map and drag to the right to get 2024-28 forecast data
That just shows the estimate per year (ie UK growth 2028 forecast at 1.5%), not overall from 2016 to 2028.
Yes it gives the base data (and that they are forecasting the UK will outperform each of Germany, France and Italy in each of 2025/6/7/8) which can be used to calculate the comparative performance over time.
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Glyn
Scroll down the page slightly. Click on the green box that says 2023 just under the world map and drag to the right to get 2024-28 forecast data
That just shows the estimate per year (ie UK growth 2028 forecast at 1.5%), not overall from 2016 to 2028.
Yes it gives the base data (and that they are forecasting the UK will outperform each of Germany, France and Italy in each of 2025/6/7/8) which can be used to calculate the comparative performance over time.
Are you telling me you added together every individual years's growth for all these countries to get the totals you quoted, even though the years of negative growth percentages will skew the final figure? It needs to be based on the effect of a single index per country over the whole period to have the true total, which I can't see anywhere.
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No I haven't 'added them together'.
We're comparing growth over a period of time.
So for instance 2016-2018. You start each country at a base of 100 and apply the growth each year as a %. This works out the growth over a period.
E.g. UK growth of 2.2% in 2016; 2.4% in 2017; 1.7% in 2018.
Start at 100; after 2016 102.20; after 2017 104.65 (102.20 x 1.024); after 2018 106.43 (102.2 x 1.024 x 1.017)
So we know in the 3 years 2016-8 the UK economy grew overall 6.43%.
Do the same for e.g. France starting again at a base of 100 calculated the same way and you get your comparative.
I've just input the GDP growth data for each country into a spreadsheet using the above formula to work it out.
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Where is Billy when you need him, he has used to these figures and quoted them on numerous occasions as has Glynn, they are the experts, probably being sick., And Syd has appeared again at the wrong time, oh dear it must be like losing a referendum again.
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This yah-boo shite is very tiring, if expected from one or two in here who seem to become more immature by the year.
Branton. I'd intended to respond to your original post about the IMF figures several weeks ago, but the discussion moved on.
Forgive me, as a mere amateur, telling a professional like you how to deal with these figures, but, well you do keep going off at the wron angle because of your utter certainty that Brexit isn't a problem. And as a result, in the very IMF link that you posted several weeks ago, the problem is there, staring you in the face, but you don't see it.
Before I point it out to you, a bit of history and, if you'll allow me, a suggestion on how to interpret data.
The UK joined the EEC in the 70s because the evidence was clear. For two decades, Britain's economy had not grown as strongly as those of other leading nations. Not just other European nations, but all advanced economies. We had grown, but nowhere near as fast as they had. The EEC was seen as the cure to this, by opening the economy to competition, and to a much bigger market to sell into, eventually frictionlessly.
The argument of those of us who have seen Brexit as a major problem is not that it would smash our economy to pieces overnight. It was that it would send us on a different, lower growth trajectory than we would otherwise have been on.
To properly assess that, you don't compare figures from 2 or 3 countries since the Brexit vote. You need to look at the long historical trend of UK performance against all the leading economies (because concentrating on two or three will overstate effects like the short-run economic policies of those countries, or the effects of exogenous shocks on their economies, and make it harder to answer the real question - what has Brexit done to the long run trajectory of the UK economy relative to where it WAS going?)
The graph at the bottom of this page gives a blunt but instructive first order answer to that question. That's from IMF data from the link you posted. The blue line shows UK GDP as a % of the GDP of the G7 nations in total from 1981 (when the data starts) to 2015. There are major, short term ups and downs of course. There are recessions and better times that affect the ratio. But the long run trend is clear (the thin blue dotted line - that's a least squares regression linear fit, not a "by eye" line). A steady, slow long run improvement in the size of our economy relative to the overall G7. From about 7% of the G7 in 1981 to about 8.5% by 2015. That is precisely what membership of the trading bloc was supposed to help us achieve. In simple terms, we grew richer at a faster rate than the rest of the G& for three decades.
So what about the data after the 2016 vote? The IMF data is the thick orange dashed line. The best fit linear trend since 2015/16 is given by the thin dotted orange line. There's been a clear and absolutely unambiguous fall in the ratio. The trajectory pivoted around 2016. The thick black dashed line by the way takes into account the recent ONS correction that you are heralding as the argument clincher. If you screw your eyes up really tight, you can just see the effect of the correction at the end.
You can want Brexit not to be a problem with all your heart. But the figures are there telling the story if you're really prepared to look for them.
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None of which is to say that it won't turn around. But that graph shows what HAS happened, not guesstimates about what might happen in the future. We moved onto a very different trajectory after 2015/16.
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Billy
I'd like to investigate the data you're referring and respond.
However when I click the link you've posted I just get an error message.
Perhaps you can help me out there?
The obvious answer to your point is how do the similar graphs for the other European G7 members compare i.e. Germany/France/Italy.
i.e. Is there a Brexit issue or more broadly a European one?
Clearly the fact that I've proven the UK has outperformed these countries since 2016 means the answer to this is an obvious one.
You really can't summarily dismiss the fact that the UK has, and is forecast to continue to, outperform the other big European economies over nearly a decade and a half from the Brexit vote.
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I didn't post a link. Just a graph. The data is in the IMF dataset that you linked to.
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I didn't post a link. Just a graph. The data is in the IMF dataset that you linked to.
Got it. Apologies wasn't coming up before.
The answer to your point is how do the similar graphs for the other European G7 members compare i.e. Germany/France/Italy.
i.e. Is there a Brexit issue or more broadly a European one?
Clearly the fact that I've proven the UK has outperformed these countries since 2016 means the answer to this question is an obvious one.
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Apologies. It's a click or two away.
This is where I got the data from.
https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPD@WEO/MAE
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Same graph for Germany.
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Billy
You're comparing UK GDP versus the G7's collective GDP over time.
The US makes up approx 2/3rds of the G7's total GDP.
I'll repeat 2016-2022 GDP growth for European G7 members plus add the US in: -
US 15.0%; UK 9.5%; France 8.3%; Germany 7.8%; Italy 5.5%
The US economy growing so comparatively strongly, and the US being such a comparatively bigger economy, is diluting the share of G7 GDP of the other countries.
All your graph is confirming is that the US has grown remarkably fast versus Western Europe over the last 7 years. Hardly advocating the EU btw.
It says nothing whatsoever about Brexit or a respondent change in the UK's growth prospects.
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Branton.
Are you suggesting the data is skewed by something very positive happening to the US economy around 2016? Something that negatively affected the UK ratio, but didn't do so anything like to the same extent to the German ratio?
I can feel Ockham's Razor sharpening.
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Are you seriously suggesting that the US economy performing so comparatively well in this period is due to Brexit?
PS the US performed similarly to the European nations in 16/17 - only from 2018 did the US economy begin to do much better.
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Branton.
Read my post again. I'm saying nothing of the sort.
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Ok apologies - that was how I read you're previous post.
The reason the UK ratio was hit more than Germany's (despite the fact that the UK has grown faster than Germany in 2016-22) is because the graph is clearly from simplistic data not taking into consideration exchange rate movements. The £ fell in value in 2016 after the referendum which is where the difference in UK v Germany graphs lies.
I provide evidence that the UK has/is expected to grow faster than the other 3 big European G7 economies over the short to medium term (13 years!) after the referendum/Brexit up to 2028 at least. 3 countries that have stayed in the EU so provide a good comparison.
You criticise me for only comparing to 3 countries.
You then provide a graph which effectively solely proves: -
- The UK (as has the rest of Western Europe) performed worse than one economy (US) which isn't even in the EU over only 7 years.
- That the EUs main economic rival is massively outperforming it
- That the £ fell in value in 2016 (which we already knew)
Amateur hour.
You can't blame each of France, Germany, Italy under performing economically against the UK consistently over a forecast 13 years on their short-run economic policies or the effects of exogenous shocks.
You can want Brexit to be a major problem with all your heart but you are only fooling yourself if you a) ignore what the actual economic data is telling you and b) concoct ludicrous stories which may convince yourself that you're right but don't hold up to any form of serious professional scrutiny.
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No I haven't 'added them together'.
We're comparing growth over a period of time.
So for instance 2016-2018. You start each country at a base of 100 and apply the growth each year as a %. This works out the growth over a period.
E.g. UK growth of 2.2% in 2016; 2.4% in 2017; 1.7% in 2018.
Start at 100; after 2016 102.20; after 2017 104.65 (102.20 x 1.024); after 2018 106.43 (102.2 x 1.024 x 1.017)
So we know in the 3 years 2016-8 the UK economy grew overall 6.43%.
Do the same for e.g. France starting again at a base of 100 calculated the same way and you get your comparative.
I've just input the GDP growth data for each country into a spreadsheet using the above formula to work it out.
Well, I've just worked out the 2016-2028 growth according to those figures for the UK and it came to 17.51% not the 19.6% you came up with. So I checked it and it came up 17.51% again.
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Hey Glyn
This reminds me of being audited at work :)
These are the figures I used 2016 2.2%; 2017 2.4%; 2018 1.6%; 2019 1.7%; 2020 -10.4%; 2021 8.7%; 2022 4.0%; 2023 0.4%; 2024 1.0%; 2025 2.2%; 2026 2.0%; 2027 1.8%; 2028 1.5%
All from the IMF. Except 2020 and 2021 updated by the ONS as per the OP and 2023 IMF forecast updated to 0.4% - as per link you posted.
Your number is still higher than Germany and Italy and only fractionally behind France so I don't think alters my main argument re Brexit not being a nightmare economically
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Hey Glyn
This reminds me of being audited at work :)
These are the figures I used 2016 2.2%; 2017 2.4%; 2018 1.6%; 2019 1.7%; 2020 -10.4%; 2021 8.7%; 2022 4.0%; 2023 0.4%; 2024 1.0%; 2025 2.2%; 2026 2.0%; 2027 1.8%; 2028 1.5%
All from the IMF. Except 2020 and 2021 updated by the ONS as per the OP and 2023 IMF forecast updated to 0.4% - as per link you posted.
Your number is still higher than Germany and Italy and only fractionally behind France so I don't think alters my main argument re Brexit not being a nightmare economically
Well, I did used to be an Excise & Inland Customs auditor..! I just don't always take figures at face value, I like to check them.
I get where you've got your percentages from now, but it does beg the question that if the UK GDP figures have been updated since that graph was made, have the other countries GDP's been updated too and that the graph data is out-of-date for them too?
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Ha ha fair enough! It shows! And yes fair point - so do I in fact.
Here you go BBC article on the ONS upgrade www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66680188
States 3rd last paragraph that France/Germany/Italy haven't updated their numbers similarly.
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Ha ha fair enough! It shows! And yes fair point - so do I in fact.
Here you go BBC article on the ONS upgrade www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66680188
States 3rd last paragraph that France/Germany/Italy haven't updated their numbers similarly.
That paragraph is referring to their own national statistics (like our ONS who the article is about), not the IMF figures though.
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Ha ha fair enough! It shows! And yes fair point - so do I in fact.
Here you go BBC article on the ONS upgrade www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66680188
States 3rd last paragraph that France/Germany/Italy haven't updated their numbers similarly.
That paragraph is referring to their own national statistics (like our ONS who the article is about), not the IMF figures though.
You ask much more pertinent questions than the 20 somethings that come auditing me!
And you've caught me out as well.
I assumed the IMF change to the UK's 2023 forecast was a stand alone thing - there was much brouhaha in the press about it at the time if you remember.
Turns out they reconsidered all country forecasts at the same time for 2023 and 2024 (not 2025-8) and updated the 2022 figures (inc UK). My mistake.
That was in July www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/07/10/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2023
I'd previously stated 2016-28 actual/forecast growth as: -
UK 19.6%; France 18.0%; Germany 15.7%; Italy 11.6%
After the IMFs July update it is now: -
UK 19.8%; France 18.0%; Germany 15.7%; Italy 12.2%
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Branton
Are you saying that, to assess our economic performance after the Brexit vote, we should simply ignore the huge drop in the value of sterling that occurred immediately after the vote and take the next day as the datum?
That seems to me to be what you are saying. But there are at least 3 problems with that.
1) The devaluation of sterling meant that the market immediately viewed our economy as producing significantly less worth than it had previously. In simple terms, we were a lot poorer in global terms than we would otherwise have been. One unit of our output would be able to buy much less on global markets than we had previously assumed. (That devaluation by the way isn't just an abstract problem. It led to a jump in inflation and 2-3 years of falling real wages for all of us.)
2) A devalued currency is the classic means of giving a weak economy a chance to reboot and grow, because it makes its exports cheaper on the global market. All other things being equal, it leads to a boost in economic output. So at least some of the growth we've had since then (growth from a greatly depressed baseline) is due to that. It seems you want to embrace the growth figures, while ignoring the big initial drop in the datum level. I'm only an amateur as you keep pointing out and you are the professional, but may I say that seems to be a little inconsistent.
3) You yourself have previously pointed out that our currency has regained much of the value it lost in late June 2016. All other thing being equal, that would eliminate the drop in relative GDP that the devaluation produced. But it hasn't. At best our economy has levelled off relative to G7 levels over the past few years.
I'll stick to my interpretation if you will allow me to as an amateur observer. We appear to have moved from a long term trend of improvement relative to the G7 before 2016 to one of, at best, stagnation at a lower level.
As for IMF predictions of future growth, they don't havecthe best track record on that. Have a look at their predictions of our growth in the early 2010s which consistently, and by a wide margin proved hopelessly optimistic compared to what actually happened.
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Not an economist either so I look for real world evidence .............
https://www.trusselltrust.org/news-and-blog/latest-stats/end-year-stats/#:~:text=There%20are%20more%20than%201300,run%20from%20schools%20and%20hospitals.
The UK is not robinson crusoe as far as having foodbanks but the trend of usage doesn't show much optimism.
Added: from the link
"There are more than 1300 food bank centres in the Trussell Trust’s UK-wide network. The Independent Food Aid Network has identified at least 1,172 independent food banks, while there are also Salvation Army food banks as well as food banks run from schools and hospitals''
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It isn’t just the UK that relies on food banks.
From the Australian 2022 food bank report:
Over 2 million households in Australia (21%) have experienced severe food insecurity in the last 12 months
“
Same amount of income (husband works) and I am a mum on carers payment for a special needs child. Same bills, same groceries, same amount of clothing/shoes, same amount of fuel for the vehicle etc – the only thing that has changed is that the prices of all the normal things have gone up but income/payments remain the same. So that means now we have to cut down on groceries. Adults go without meals so the kids can eat. So, cutting down on groceries is our only option.
We don’t do anything. We don’t go out for restaurant meals or takeaway, no holidays, don’t buy coffees from cafes. We go out the house for work, grocery shopping, taking kids to school and picking them up, driving to medical appointments and to the local park so our kids can do something over the weekend that is free and close to home. It’s really sad that it’s come to this.
”
A mum in country Queensland.
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Germany has 2,000 https://www.dw.com/en/german-food-banks-in-crisis/a-66244397
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/50324852
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Not surprised sprot ........
''Germany is not only UNHCR's second-largest donor, but also has become the third largest refugee-hosting country in the world, with 2.2 million refugees, and an important resettlement country. Since the outbreak of the war on the Ukraine, over 900.000 refugees from Ukraine have received temporary protection in Germany''
https://www.google.com/search?q=how+mant+refugees+have+settled+in+germany&rlz=1C1VDKB_en-GBAU957AU957&oq=how+mant+refugees+have+settled+in+germany+&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOdIBCTE3MTUyajBqN6gCALACAA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
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Here you go Sydders
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwi5_M-XgpGBAxWzRkEAHagzD9EQFnoECBAQAw&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FAskAnAustralian%2Fcomments%2F125jdjy%2Fwhy_doesnt_australia_try_to_increase_their%2F%23%3A~%3Atext%3DIt%2520can%2520hopefully%2520support%2520100%2Ctry%2520to%2520increase%2520their%2520population%253F&usg=AOvVaw1VsJ0s-O70fhqaEt54_dKr&opi=89978449
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Another one for you Sydders https://www.mediapart.fr/en/journal/france/281121/seven-million-people-france-rely-food-banks-reports-leading-charity
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Are your posts related to the OP sprot?
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Are your posts related to the OP sprot?
It's a reply to your post slippery Syd !
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I guess that's you having a pop at me rather than the topic then sprot?
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I guess that's you having a pop at me rather than the topic then sprot?
I was pointing out that food banks are not exclusive to Britain, it's rather sad that Germany also has a problem with folks struggling to feed themselves, tonight on France 24 they announced asylum applications in Europe were 519,000 which is a third higher than last year , Germany having 30% of the figure.
Having just visited in June, I can confirm that the 'wirkschaft wonder jahren,are well and truly over!
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So countries taking in many more refugees than the UK sprot as has been pointed out by others, are their governments using the crisis to drive a culture war?
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So countries taking in many more refugees than the UK sprot as has been pointed out by others, are their governments using the crisis to drive a culture war?
War !!! In Germanys case they can’t even agree how to re build their Armed Forces , culture war what’s that by the way?
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So countries taking in many more refugees than the UK sprot as has been pointed out by others, are their governments using the crisis to drive a culture war?
War !!! In Germanys case they can’t even agree how to re build their Armed Forces , culture war what’s that by the way?
easy peasy sprot, it's what you get when you get when you cross a hollowed out political party and rich supporters with zero conscience.
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Looks like the uk has dodged a bullet in that the EU are about to increase demands from member states for their 21-27 budget to the tune of around £56billion at a time when Germany, Italy and France are all suffering financial struggles.
The EU are quite literally running out of other peoples money.
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So countries taking in many more refugees than the UK sprot as has been pointed out by others, are their governments using the crisis to drive a culture war?
War !!! In Germanys case they can’t even agree how to re build their Armed Forces , culture war what’s that by the way?
easy peasy sprot, it's what you get when you get when you cross a hollowed out political party and rich supporters with zero conscience.
Which parties in which Euro Zone countries are you on about Sydders?
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hang on a sec sprot I'll get you a clean bib
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Jeeez, nothing changes.
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hang on a sec sprot I'll get you a clean bib
Why do I need a clean Bib?
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So countries taking in many more refugees than the UK sprot as has been pointed out by others, are their governments using the crisis to drive a culture war?
War !!! In Germanys case they can’t even agree how to re build their Armed Forces , culture war what’s that by the way?
easy peasy sprot, it's what you get when you get when you cross a hollowed out political party and rich supporters with zero conscience.
Like this one for example? https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjc4N7cwJiBAxV4V0EAHQDQB-sQFnoECBEQAw&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fuk-news%2F2022%2Fdec%2F09%2Flabour-would-fast-track-asylum-cases-from-safe-countries-to-clear-backlog%23%3A~%3Atext%3DCooper%2520told%2520Radio%25204%27s%2520Today%2Cswiftly%2520decided%2520and%2520swiftly%2520returned.&usg=AOvVaw1DSP096Qgxk_LaGXQlbMra&opi=89978449
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There is still room for the Albanians sproty.
There are still a few shops in Copley Road that don’t have Albanians running them.
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Try Googling “Albanian cannabis farms uk”
Epidemic levels in parts of the uk .
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It didn't take long for thread to degenerate from the economy into xenophobic stereotypes, did it?
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Try Googling “Albanian cannabis farms uk”
Epidemic levels in parts of the uk .
Try googling racism in the police force and you'll find the same result.
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Try Googling “Albanian cannabis farms uk”
Epidemic levels in parts of the uk .
Try googling racism in the police force and you'll find the same result.
Well the Police Force is recruited from Joe Public,Which says a lot about our society ,where should it be recruited from?
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It didn't take long for thread to degenerate from the economy into xenophobic stereotypes, did it?
Is google racist then?
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Try Googling “Albanian cannabis farms uk”
Epidemic levels in parts of the uk .
Try googling racism in the police force and you'll find the same result.
Well the Police Force is recruited from Joe Public,Which says a lot about our society ,where should it be recruited from?
The non-paedophilic, non-racist, non-misognist, non-criminal part of it.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/paedophile-police-officers-met-police-laxton-addis-images-watkinson-b1083768.html
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/paedophile-police-officer-who-groomed-29556160
https://www.hackneygazette.co.uk/news/23679078.met-police-officer-filmed-sex-tape-paedophiles-house/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-66686561
https://www.cps.gov.uk/north-west/news/former-police-officer-guilty-child-sex-offences
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Back on topic it's good to see Rishi using his background and contacts to get the amazing trade deals we were promised that the rest of the world would be desperate to have because of Brexit.
Oh.....
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/09/08/narendra-modi-postpones-rishi-sunak-talks-ahead-g20-summit/
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It didn't take long for thread to degenerate from the economy into xenophobic stereotypes, did it?
Is google racist then?
Did you try googling racism in the police force?
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It didn't take long for thread to degenerate from the economy into xenophobic stereotypes, did it?
Is google racist then?
Did you try googling racism in the police force?
Google racism in the nhs, prison service, fire service. Government .
Any walk of life for that matter.
My comment about Albanian crime in the uk was not racist. It’s fact.
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Mine about the police force is fact.
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Billy
In response to your Reply 47 above. Virtually every sentence is theoretically or factually incorrect.
Your graph shows a fall in Sterling then the very strong relative growth of by far the G7s largest economy (US) – and nothing else. It's startling that you insist otherwise on being informed.
It categorically does not show a fall in UK growth prospects (apart from against the booming US).
In the UK we transact and measure the value of our incomes and wealth in £s not $s. This is a fundamental point you are ignoring.
It makes no difference to UK residents that our incomes and wealth are lower in foreign currencies – except when we go on foreign holidays. Your datum level argument is complete nonsense.
Yes movements in exchange rates impact economic growth but not simply or proportionally as your interpretation of the graph suggests you think. It depends on the country.
One with a large trade surplus benefits from a lower exchange rate as it's exports become cheaper. Hence why China deliberately seeks to devalue it's currency (fancy ringing Xi and telling him he's depressing his country's future growth rate?!).
One with a large trade deficit (i.e. UK) is likely to suffer from a lower exchange as the benefits of having cheaper exports are outweighed by the extra cost of imports. However you are completely wrong to say the fall in the £ in 2016 resulted in 2-3 years of falling real wages – look it up.
Your analysis that some of the UK's superior growth is due to the fall in the £ is both theoretically incorrect and not backed up by trade data.
GDP growth figures are impacted by every and all economic factors from inflation, unemployment, wage growth and changes in foreign currency rates. Your accusation that I'm ignoring exchange rates movements is therefore completely wrong and perplexing.
Here's a lesson on interpretation in economics. For future events: Theory first; Data second. For past events: Data first; Theory second.
The UK has provably grown faster than each of the 3 big EU economies both since the referendum; since leaving the EU; and since leaving the Single Market.
Time for you to accept this FACT and confront what it is showing you.
And please stop your professional/amateur schtick. When you come out with such drivel it makes you look exceedingly foolish.
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And Billy.
This fully deserves a separate post.
I know you were insulted previously when I proclaimed you to be a hypocrite. So look away now.
How often have you referenced, ridiculed and denigrated Michael Gove (not incorrectly) for his comment on economic experts because their opinions countered his argument:
“I think the people in this country have had enough of experts from organisations with acronyms saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong”
And yet when you're confronted with expert economic opinion which contradicts your opinion you are guilty of the self-same thing. Pathetic!
Economic forecasting is not easy. The IMF provides regular forecasts on practically every nation. It is very easy to find examples of where they were wrong historically. But that does not detract from their expertise – which is far higher than yours or mine.
Their record on comparative economic performance, which is what I'm referencing, is actually very good – as you'd expect from such experts.
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Questions for the experts
Per capita GDP, distribution and wealth accumulation, how does social mobility affect this. Do countries that distribute wealth more fairly have better structured economies albeit possibly with a smaller economy overall.
Is it possible that those that live in countries with higher levels of social mobility receive a larger share of distributed wealth which gives them a better standard of living than those that don't.
Are any of the above valid questions?
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Mine about the police force is fact.
Mine about the nhs is fact.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwj1rvCFzJ-BAxW4WUEAHfu0B0AQFnoECBEQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bmj.com%2Fcontent%2F382%2Fbmj.p1595&usg=AOvVaw10nWSmpqHqyul0VDI1j7IO&opi=89978449
You clearly have a hang up with the police in particular.
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Mine about the police force is fact.
Mine about the nhs is fact.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwj1rvCFzJ-BAxW4WUEAHfu0B0AQFnoECBEQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bmj.com%2Fcontent%2F382%2Fbmj.p1595&usg=AOvVaw10nWSmpqHqyul0VDI1j7IO&opi=89978449
You clearly have a hang up with the police in particular.
I guess educating the xenophobes would be a good place to start aye?
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It didn't take long for thread to degenerate from the economy into xenophobic stereotypes, did it?
It never does must like the ones where every Immigrant used the streets of Hexthorpe as a toilet
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Xenophobia seems to haunt every corner of our so called democratic and fair society. Every organisation we look at in this country seems riddled with this anti- social disease.
Just when is our society going to grow up, we call out Hungary etc whilst treating non- white Brits as 2nd class citizens
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When those at the top of the food chain show that something is acceptable then it's more readily adopted by those on the next tier, and so on. It's been a repeating theme in right wing politics and instead of people refusing to accept it some of them join the cheer squad. It's a waste of energy and disrupts life everywhere it rears its head. It's totally not exclusive to right wing politics.
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Questions for the experts
Per capita GDP, distribution and wealth accumulation, how does social mobility affect this. Do countries that distribute wealth more fairly have better structured economies albeit possibly with a smaller economy overall.
Is it possible that those that live in countries with higher levels of social mobility receive a larger share of distributed wealth which gives them a better standard of living than those that don't.
Are any of the above valid questions?
Hey Sydney
You need the Gini Index which measures a country's level of inequality. The lower the number (out of 100) the lower the inequality.
There are several countries with very low Gini scores and very high GDP per capita e.g. Scandinavia and Benelux countries.
So you can have low inequality and high living standards.
The counter argument, esp for the big Western economies, is the US. It's Gini score is atrociously high but it's GDP per capita is much higher than most other big economies and, as I've alluded to above, it's economic growth rate in recent years is much higher too.
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Branton.
I truly don't know how to respond to an argument that says:
1) I'm going to use IMF figures which give GDP in constant dollars.
2) I'm going to get really condescending cross at someone who takes into account the effect of sterling value falling in 2016.
and
3) I'm going to use the post 2016 growth figures, and ignore the fact that they cover a period in which sterling appreciated to close to its pre-Brexit vote value.
If that's the state of the discussion, I'm more than happy to stop using the "expert/amateur" thing that you yourself introduced.
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PS.
Hand up from me on the real wage thing. I should have said "suppressed real wages" rather than "falling". From the 2016 vote, real wage growth dropped rapidly from the ~2-3% it had been for the previous 3 years (since the end of Hard Austerity). It went negative for 12-15 months then slowly recovered to pre-Brexit vote levels. The three year period was the length of time that real wage growth was suppressed below the prior level.
I assume you accept that 3 years of suppressed real wage growth (which scrubbed about £2-2.5k per year off real wages) was the direct result of the jump in inflation which followed the crash in sterling, which itself was due to the vote?
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Billy
The OP is comparing UK GDP growth versus countries which use the Euro.
The £:Euro exchange rate has stayed pretty constant since 2016.
No reason to believe it shouldn't continue to do so up to 2028.
I am taking into account the 2016 fall in Sterling with the historic comparisons - as GDP growth is all encompassing.
It is you that are irrelevantly bringing comparison to US economic growth into the equation.
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Billy
The IMF statistics may be in constant dollars but they are converted into $ using Purchasing Power Parity not the prevailing exchange rate on the foreign currency markets.
I think that may be the root cause of your misinterpretation here.
To explain if a widget cost £1 in the UK but $2 in the US the PPP rate would be 1:2. This would not be the same as the exchange rate on the foreign currency market and would remain the same even after a sudden movement of the exchange rate - as seen in 2016.
Therefore the GDP growth figure I quoted are very much comparable country to country and movements in the exchange rate do not impact the relevance of the numbers as comparatives as you are suggesting as your primary argument.
Though obviously exchange rate movements will impact on what the GDP growth figures are in the first place - just like unemployment rates, inflation etc etc - so as I explained previously I am taking into account exchange rate movements
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Questions for the experts
Per capita GDP, distribution and wealth accumulation, how does social mobility affect this. Do countries that distribute wealth more fairly have better structured economies albeit possibly with a smaller economy overall.
Is it possible that those that live in countries with higher levels of social mobility receive a larger share of distributed wealth which gives them a better standard of living than those that don't.
Are any of the above valid questions?
Hey Sydney
You need the Gini Index which measures a country's level of inequality. The lower the number (out of 100) the lower the inequality.
There are several countries with very low Gini scores and very high GDP per capita e.g. Scandinavia and Benelux countries.
So you can have low inequality and high living standards.
The counter argument, esp for the big Western economies, is the US. It's Gini score is atrociously high but it's GDP per capita is much higher than most other big economies and, as I've alluded to above, it's economic growth rate in recent years is much higher too.
Thanks Branton, an article, based on a study suggested that if people believe/know distribution is fair they can accept inequality. Still have plenty to read.