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Viking Chat => Viking Chat => Topic started by: BillyStubbsTears on April 06, 2024, 05:27:54 pm

Title: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on April 06, 2024, 05:27:54 pm
72 points as of tonight.

Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: Peebles Rover on April 06, 2024, 05:29:18 pm
Yikes, so we’d have to win the next 5, or 11 wins on the trot!
Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: dickos1 on April 06, 2024, 05:29:59 pm
I can’t see Crewe getting more than 70, I think they’re the ones to catch.
Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: PDX_Rover on April 06, 2024, 05:30:21 pm
Well, we’ve won the last 6. Why not?
Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on April 06, 2024, 05:32:58 pm
Yikes, so we’d have to win the next 5, or 11 wins on the trot!

Realistically it was always likely to require that sort of run.
Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: Peebles Rover on April 06, 2024, 05:38:44 pm
I can’t see Crewe getting more than 70, I think they’re the ones to catch.

I think they had 3 tricky games out of 4 when I looked
Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: Michael Shaw on April 06, 2024, 05:39:03 pm
Live in hope, and wait and see what happens.
Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: idler on April 06, 2024, 05:39:31 pm
Billy, if there is a plus and minus%,
is it more likely to be less rather than more points or doesn’t it work like that?
Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: GazLaz on April 06, 2024, 05:41:03 pm
Billy, if there is a plus and minus%,
is it more likely to be less rather than more points or doesn’t it work like that?

Doesn’t really work like that same chance of it being a point more as a point less.
Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: idler on April 06, 2024, 05:42:34 pm
Cheers Gaz.
Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: Sprotyrover on April 06, 2024, 05:49:27 pm
I assume we need to keep winning and hope the others around us jostling for a play off place falter, has anybody been feverishly looking at rivals run ins?
Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on April 06, 2024, 05:59:17 pm
Billy, if there is a plus and minus%,
is it more likely to be less rather than more points or doesn’t it work like that?

As Gaz says, it doesn't really work like that. It just extrapolates everybody's recent form through to the end of the season.

It kind of assumes that sides having exceptional runs of form (us, Crawley) get balanced out by sides having bad runs (Crewe, Barrow).

It absolutely doesn't say Crawley will keep on winning and Crewe not winning, which is why I say not to focus on a particular side.

There's no guarantee with this of course. Crewe, Barrow, Crawley and Walsall might all average 2 points a game from here on, in which case we are screwed. But that's unlikely.

For the record, since I started looking up, rather than down with this model, about 4-5 weeks ago, it's been consistently predicting 71-73 points for 7th place, apart from once briefly spiking at 75.

I think 72 is a decent bet, but it could be a bit higher or lower.

I think what it's saying is this:

If we get 15 points from the last 5 games, we're probably slightly odds on to grab 7th, but not guaranteed.

If we get 13 points, we're probably 2-3/1 against.

Anything less and it's very long odds against.
Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: Upton Rover on April 06, 2024, 06:07:52 pm
I can’t see Crewe getting more than 70, I think they’re the ones to catch.
Crawley are the ones to catch for us
Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: normal rules on April 06, 2024, 06:28:37 pm
Rovers to thump walsall 4-0 would level gd with them.
After the last few games, anything is possible.
Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: karlos on April 06, 2024, 06:32:24 pm
I have
1 Stockport
2 Wrexham
3 mk dons
4 Mansfield
5 Crawley 75pts
6 Crewe 74pts
7 DRFC 73pts
Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: Padge_DRFC on April 06, 2024, 06:37:46 pm
Look at Barrow's fixtures. They're the ones to catch I think.
Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: idler on April 06, 2024, 06:38:32 pm
There is probably more pressure on those above us as it is theirs to lose. We are just still living the dream with (I hope) no recriminations if/when we lose. These last few games have been unbelievable. What a run after such a disjointed campaign in parts.
Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: big fat yorkshire pudding on April 06, 2024, 06:43:57 pm
Of course some of those teams including us have to play each other, meaning some will get the points. Interesting though.

Highly unlikely we'll win all 5 and I think we have to.
Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: DonnyBazR0ver on April 06, 2024, 06:47:35 pm
Of course some of those teams including us have to play each other, meaning some will get the points. Interesting though.

Highly unlikely we'll win all 5 and I think we have to.

So far we've been doing quite well in the unlikely stakes.

Gotta love every minute that's left of this season.
Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: EasyforDennis on April 06, 2024, 06:49:13 pm
IF we do make that 7th place we will definitely be favourites to win the play offs.
Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: Filo on April 06, 2024, 06:50:21 pm
IF we do make that 7th place we will definitely be favourites to win the play offs.

Was thinking that myself, the other three teams will be shitting it if we make it
Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: dickos1 on April 06, 2024, 06:58:18 pm
I can’t see Crewe getting more than 70, I think they’re the ones to catch.
Crawley are the ones to catch for us

I think Crawley will finish above Crewe comfortably
Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: POD on April 06, 2024, 07:14:02 pm
I can’t see Crewe getting more than 70, I think they’re the ones to catch.
Crawley are the ones to catch for us

I think Crawley will finish above Crewe comfortably

I agree.   They have to play three of the bottom four in their last 5 games… Colchester, Sutton and Grimsby.   

Their other two games are v Barrow and Wrexham which are more difficult but I would agree that Crewe or even Barrow might be the ones to catch.   
Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: Arsenal Of The North on April 06, 2024, 07:42:22 pm
Well, we’ve won the last 6. Why not?

Leeds won 15 on the bounce in arguably one of hardest leagues in the world, I’m sure mighty donny can muster 5 more wins

Come on you reds
Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: Chris Black come back on April 06, 2024, 07:44:32 pm
They have a long and established record of cheating though, which thankfully we do not.
Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: drfchound on April 06, 2024, 09:19:24 pm
I can’t see Crewe getting more than 70, I think they’re the ones to catch.
Crawley are the ones to catch for us

I think Crawley will finish above Crewe comfortably

I agree.   They have to play three of the bottom four in their last 5 games… Colchester, Sutton and Grimsby.   

Their other two games are v Barrow and Wrexham which are more difficult but I would agree that Crewe or even Barrow might be the ones to catch.

Sutton are in great recent form so that one won’t be easy either.
Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: drfchound on April 06, 2024, 09:23:00 pm
I have
1 Stockport
2 Wrexham
3 mk dons
4 Mansfield
5 Crawley 75pts
6 Crewe 74pts
7 DRFC 73pts

If that turns out right we would play Mansfield in the play off semi final matches.
Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: Campsall rover on April 06, 2024, 09:40:29 pm
I can’t see Crewe getting more than 70, I think they’re the ones to catch.
Crawley are the ones to catch for us

I think Crawley will finish above Crewe comfortably

I agree.   They have to play three of the bottom four in their last 5 games… Colchester, Sutton and Grimsby.   

Their other two games are v Barrow and Wrexham which are more difficult but I would agree that Crewe or even Barrow might be the ones to catch.
Colchester and Sutton are fighting for their lives. No easy games. Football is not played on paper.
Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: Lesonthewest on April 07, 2024, 09:28:37 am
I remember Grant saying a while ago we won't see the best of us until around January time, he was almost spot on, had he been right, we would be in the play offs now.
Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: ravenrover on April 07, 2024, 11:54:20 am
I have
1 Stockport
2 Wrexham
3 mk dons
4 Mansfield
5 Crawley 75pts
6 Crewe 74pts
7 DRFC 73pts

If that turns out right we would play Mansfield in the play off semi final matches.
MKD have played 2 games more than Mansfield,  and most of the other teams around them, with just a point in it
Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: drfchound on April 07, 2024, 12:06:04 pm
I have
1 Stockport
2 Wrexham
3 mk dons
4 Mansfield
5 Crawley 75pts
6 Crewe 74pts
7 DRFC 73pts

If that turns out right we would play Mansfield in the play off semi final matches.
MKD have played 2 games more than Mansfield,  and most of the other teams around them, with just a point in it

Yes, it could change.
I did say though “if that turns out right”.
Mansfield do seem to have gone into a sticky patch.
Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: Avsuptem on April 07, 2024, 12:36:01 pm
I don't think.its going to work as we hope or as the modelling predicts. If Crewe get just 2 wins from their last 4 games they will still be on 73 but most likely with a better goal difference than us. So, we need Crawley to have an unlikely dip in form and/or Barrow to implode. We could well find our selves on 73 points in 8th place which would be nothing more than the bittersweet dissapointing irony that is the traditional lot of a DRFC supporter.
Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on April 07, 2024, 01:27:25 pm
I don't think.its going to work as we hope or as the modelling predicts. If Crewe get just 2 wins from their last 4 games they will still be on 73 but most likely with a better goal difference than us. So, we need Crawley to have an unlikely dip in form and/or Barrow to implode. We could well find our selves on 73 points in 8th place which would be nothing more than the bittersweet dissapointing irony that is the traditional lot of a DRFC supporter.

It's actually very simple.

We need to win our last five and hope that one of Crawley, Barrow and Crewe don't do better than about 1.25 PPG in their other games and Walsall don't win their last 4.

If we do win our last 5, I'd say it's about 4/6 on that we'll get 7th place.
Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: philsky on April 07, 2024, 01:51:47 pm

Three home games now - I can see us winning them; 67 points and fully in the mix.









Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: drfchound on April 07, 2024, 04:02:30 pm

Three home games now - I can see us winning them; 67 points and fully in the mix.

We should run out to “Let it be” for the last three home games.
Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: philsky on April 07, 2024, 04:05:21 pm

Three home games now - I can see us winning them; 67 points and fully in the mix.

We should run out to “Let it be” for the last three home games.

Should make it £1 for a kid
Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: drfchound on April 07, 2024, 04:07:49 pm

Three home games now - I can see us winning them; 67 points and fully in the mix.

We should run out to “Let it be” for the last three home games.

Should make it £1 for a kid

Yep, agreed.
Try to fill the stadium.
People are taking interest due to our current run of form.
Walking round the lake on the way to the Wrexham game I met a pal, with his wife, and they said they were going to their first Rovers match for many years.
Title: Re: Model prediction for 7th place
Post by: normal rules on April 07, 2024, 07:53:13 pm
I’m surprised the donnybob challenge hasn’t been declared for Tues night.