Viking Supporters Co-operative

Viking Chat => Viking Chat => Topic started by: Colin C No.3 on April 29, 2024, 06:53:03 pm

Title: It’s time.
Post by: Colin C No.3 on April 29, 2024, 06:53:03 pm
Time to pay those monies towards the Rovers academy GazLaz. Thought I’d mention it (guess I just beat you to the punch?) so that the monies can be paid before the telephone lines at Rovers go in to ‘meltdown’ with supporters clambering for tickets.

Joe finished the season having scored 15 goals from ‘open play’, that’s £50 you ‘pledged’ for those 5 goals your stats ‘never saw coming’.

Rovers finished in a fantastic 5th place. Another £50 from you who believed the Rovers would not finish in the top half of the league, that’s £10 for each place Rovers finished above 10th.

I’ll pledge the same amount because as I’ve said before, it was never about the money, it was about belief in the manager & this group of players.

I will be calling Rovers tomorrow & pledging my £100, (if you need confirmation I will tell you who I spoke to & that although Colin C is the ‘handle’ I use on the forum, I will explain there will be another £100 coming for the academy from another source & if asked they can tell you Colin C has donated).

I trust your £100 will be forthcoming.

We have many, many differences on views expressed on this forum & will no doubt continue to have but, our one common ‘bond’ is the Rovers.

Here’s to ‘crossing swords’ in League 1 next season.

Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: GazLaz on April 29, 2024, 07:18:11 pm
I was waiting to see what he contributed in the playoffs. Even though those goals don’t count to the official tally they will be added to the donation tally.
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: Mike_F on April 30, 2024, 11:14:21 am
Good to see you both keeping true to your word. Regardless of your disagreements hopefully this'll be a "bury the hatchet" moment.
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: Paul Simpson on April 30, 2024, 01:34:33 pm
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: sedwardsdrfc on April 30, 2024, 06:31:53 pm


Agreed
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: scawsby steve on April 30, 2024, 07:21:11 pm
Well done to both of you. Very generous.
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: Colin C No.3 on April 30, 2024, 09:55:44 pm
C’mon Joe, get a hat trick in both legs…..all from open play!
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: WarwickRover on April 30, 2024, 10:04:54 pm
Perhaps you get more wrong than right on your forecasts ….. across a variety of subjects . Fair play to you accepting you lost the wager…. You topped it up. Well done and congratulations to Colin C vis via Doncaster Academy
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: drfcsteve on May 01, 2024, 07:12:58 am
Perhaps you get more wrong than right on your forecasts ….. across a variety of subjects . Fair play to you accepting you lost the wager…. You topped it up. Well done and congratulations to Colin C vis via Doncaster Academy


From what I’ve seen it’s more that folk ignore when Gaz gets something right but like to pile on when he gets something wrong.
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: Pancho Regan on May 01, 2024, 07:57:38 am
Perhaps you get more wrong than right on your forecasts ….. across a variety of subjects . Fair play to you accepting you lost the wager…. You topped it up. Well done and congratulations to Colin C vis via Doncaster Academy


From what I’ve seen it’s more that folk ignore when Gaz gets something right but like to pile on when he gets something wrong.

From what I've seen it's more a case that GazLaz uses the rafts of data and statistics at his disposal to make sweeping statements and definitive conclusions about players.
Mostly negative ones over the course of this season.

Fortunately, football doesn't work like that and I'm extremely glad it doesn't.

Anyway, fair play to GazLaz for stepping up to the plate regarding the outcome of the 'wager', and to ColinC for having the balls and the belief to lay the wager in the first place, and to match GazLaz's contribution despite winning the bet.
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: MachoMadness on May 01, 2024, 10:10:46 am
Perhaps you get more wrong than right on your forecasts ….. across a variety of subjects . Fair play to you accepting you lost the wager…. You topped it up. Well done and congratulations to Colin C vis via Doncaster Academy


From what I’ve seen it’s more that folk ignore when Gaz gets something right but like to pile on when he gets something wrong.

From what I've seen it's more a case that GazLaz uses the rafts of data and statistics at his disposal to make sweeping statements and definitive conclusions about players.
Mostly negative ones over the course of this season.

Fortunately, football doesn't work like that and I'm extremely glad it doesn't.

Anyway, fair play to GazLaz for stepping up to the plate regarding the outcome of the 'wager', and to ColinC for having the balls and the belief to lay the wager in the first place, and to match GazLaz's contribution despite winning the bet.
Past 3 months or so excepted, there hasn't exactly been much to be positive about on a player front for a few years now.
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: Drover on May 01, 2024, 04:06:32 pm
Well done both of you,proud of you to be Rovers family   :clapping: :scarf:
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: graingrover on May 01, 2024, 04:54:03 pm
Would you believe that people who can so generous can be equally as nasty on here .
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: i_ateallthepies on May 01, 2024, 05:04:01 pm
I agree, graingrover but if you are including Gazlaz in that judgement then I would have to disagree.  He's been the target of nastiness from a couple of people and for the most part has turned the other cheek.
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: idler on May 01, 2024, 05:19:45 pm
The thing is Gazlaz looks at things dispassionately for his job whereas most fans look at it as a fan first and foremost.
Hat I would like to know from Gazlaz is how are chances against MK Dons have narrowed over the last 20 odd games. We have a far better chance than earlier in the season of turning them over now. Even though we did beat them at home.
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: GazLaz on May 01, 2024, 06:06:08 pm
The thing is Gazlaz looks at things dispassionately for his job whereas most fans look at it as a fan first and foremost.
Hat I would like to know from Gazlaz is how are chances against MK Dons have narrowed over the last 20 odd games. We have a far better chance than earlier in the season of turning them over now. Even though we did beat them at home.

Neutral ground, one off game back when we played them in January MK would have been 1.85 (just bigger than 4/5) to beat us over 90mins. Now they would probably go off about 2.25 (5/4) at Wembley over 90mins.
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: idler on May 01, 2024, 06:50:57 pm
Thanks Gaz. It’s nice to get a feel for how things are going.
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: Colin C No.3 on May 01, 2024, 07:35:29 pm
Let’s hope this small ‘donation’ helps us to produce ‘our own’ Joe Ironside.

For me this was never intended to be a Colin C vs GAzLaz ‘choice’ between forum contributors.

Neither was it ‘blind faith’ vs stats.

It was about that ‘gut feeling’ you have as a supporter when the odds don’t look to be in ‘your favour’ as your team is floundering & all the ‘forecasts’ about players & the manager are brought into doubt. It’s so easy to go with the flow of data showing how unlikely it will be (we’re talking January) to reach the top ten place when your club lies 20th in position.

‘Easy’ to doubt Joe Ironside ever reaching 20 league goals for the first time in his career whether that be pens or otherwise.

I’ve never studied a spread sheet & in doing so then felt  comfortable in ‘dissing’ a player due to said stats.

I watch a player who game after game sweats blood for the shirt.

Call me ‘old fashioned’.

I’ll settle with that.

As for ‘gut feelings’ idler, what are yours ‘saying to you’? I hope you take comfort from the stats GazLaz has provided for you. I know your question wasn’t addressed to me so forgive for interceding.

This ‘gut’ of mine tells me we will be watching League 1 football next season……for what it’s worth.
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: idler on May 01, 2024, 09:07:39 pm
Let’s hope this small ‘donation’ helps us to produce ‘our own’ Joe Ironside.

For me this was never intended to be a Colin C vs GAzLaz ‘choice’ between forum contributors.

Neither was it ‘blind faith’ vs stats.

It was about that ‘gut feeling’ you have as a supporter when the odds don’t look to be in ‘your favour’ as your team is floundering & all the ‘forecasts’ about players & the manager are brought into doubt. It’s so easy to go with the flow of data showing how unlikely it will be (we’re talking January) to reach the top ten place when your club lies 20th in position.

‘Easy’ to doubt Joe Ironside ever reaching 20 league goals for the first time in his career whether that be pens or otherwise.

I’ve never studied a spread sheet & in doing so then felt  comfortable in ‘dissing’ a player due to said stats.

I watch a player who game after game sweats blood for the shirt.

Call me ‘old fashioned’.

I’ll settle with that.

As for ‘gut feelings’ idler, what are yours ‘saying to you’? I hope you take comfort from the stats GazLaz has provided for you. I know your question wasn’t addressed to me so forgive for interceding.

This ‘gut’ of mine tells me we will be watching League 1 football next season……for what it’s worth.
I’ve been having gut feelings about Rovers games since 1958 Colin and have probably been wrong as many or more times than being right. My gut feeling is that with this team we will always have a fair chance. By the same token History also points to not having the rub of the Green and slipping up. I am cautiously optimistic but taking nothing for granted. All I ask is that we give it our best shot and on our day we can beat any of the other three.
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: Pancho Regan on May 03, 2024, 09:48:30 pm
Thanks Gaz. It’s nice to get a feel for how things are going.

Really Dave?

I’m sure you have your own feeling for how things are going without having to refer to another source.
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: Pancho Regan on May 03, 2024, 09:51:03 pm
Perhaps you get more wrong than right on your forecasts ….. across a variety of subjects . Fair play to you accepting you lost the wager…. You topped it up. Well done and congratulations to Colin C vis via Doncaster Academy


From what I’ve seen it’s more that folk ignore when Gaz gets something right but like to pile on when he gets something wrong.

From what I've seen it's more a case that GazLaz uses the rafts of data and statistics at his disposal to make sweeping statements and definitive conclusions about players.
Mostly negative ones over the course of this season.

Fortunately, football doesn't work like that and I'm extremely glad it doesn't.

Anyway, fair play to GazLaz for stepping up to the plate regarding the outcome of the 'wager', and to ColinC for having the balls and the belief to lay the wager in the first place, and to match GazLaz's contribution despite winning the bet.
Past 3 months or so excepted, there hasn't exactly been much to be positive about on a player front for a few years now.

That depends whether you’re a positive supporter or a negative one.

I’ve been taking a lot of pleasure from the performances of Joe Ironside, Luke Molyneux and Owen Bailey all season.

Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: GazLaz on May 03, 2024, 10:11:14 pm
Thanks Gaz. It’s nice to get a feel for how things are going.

Really Dave?

I’m sure you have your own feeling for how things are going without having to refer to another source.

Yes Dave. Never have any interest in other peoples opinions or conclusions. That’s just a ridiculous thing to do.
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: Chris Black come back on May 03, 2024, 10:19:31 pm
Hahaha.
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: idler on May 03, 2024, 10:20:02 pm
Thanks Gaz. It’s nice to get a feel for how things are going.

Really Dave?

I’m sure you have your own feeling for how things are going without having to refer to another source.
I do have my own feelings Neil but it is always nice to have other insights.  Sometimes hope and expectation can cloud judgement  it we always know that it is possible to defy the odds. Otherwise why would we follow the Rovers for decades after what we have been through.
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: Pancho Regan on May 04, 2024, 07:43:02 pm
Thanks Gaz. It’s nice to get a feel for how things are going.

Really Dave?

I’m sure you have your own feeling for how things are going without having to refer to another source.
I do have my own feelings Neil but it is always nice to have other insights.  Sometimes hope and expectation can cloud judgement  it we always know that it is possible to defy the odds. Otherwise why would we follow the Rovers for decades after what we have been through.

Agree totally Dave.

I’m just saying I don’t personally feel the need to check in with GazLaz to get a feel for how things are going.
I see what I see when I watch my team, and I’ve had confidence all season that GM and this squad would deliver a good season for us.
I don’t need stats to inform my opinion, that’s all.
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: Pancho Regan on May 04, 2024, 07:49:02 pm
Thanks Gaz. It’s nice to get a feel for how things are going.

Really Dave?

I’m sure you have your own feeling for how things are going without having to refer to another source.

Yes Dave. Never have any interest in other peoples opinions or conclusions. That’s just a ridiculous thing to do.

I enjoy reading lots of opinions and conclusions on here GazLaz.

Just not everyone’s.

 I think your obsession with data and stats is not for me; I don’t need data to tell me how we’re doing, I can see it with my own eyes and feel it in my own soul.

I’ve had faith in this manager and this group all season.
You haven’t.
That’s fine, ‘vive la difference’.



Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: NickDRFC on May 04, 2024, 08:46:19 pm
Question for all the data haters - if it’s such nonsense, why does every football club in the country rely on it?
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: Bollinger on May 04, 2024, 10:16:25 pm
Question for all the data haters - if it’s such nonsense, why does every football club in the country rely on it?

They don’t. They use it. It is an element. A point of interest and reference but they don’t ‘rely’ on it.
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: Drover on May 04, 2024, 10:29:47 pm
Question for all the data haters - if it’s such nonsense, why does every football club in the country rely on it?

They don’t. They use it. It is an element. A point of interest and reference but they don’t ‘rely’ on it.


 :that:
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: Darren on May 04, 2024, 10:39:56 pm
Question for all the data haters - if it’s such nonsense, why does every football club in the country rely on it?
I'm 63 this year and have supported my club since i was eleven, not once have me and my mates sat on a coach or train on our way to a away match or in a Donny boozer before a home match and said "Anyone seen the latest data? Because that will really influence my love of our club today!
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: Colin C No.3 on May 05, 2024, 12:09:46 am
Question for all the data haters - if it’s such nonsense, why does every football club in the country rely on it?
I'm 63 this year and have supported my club since i was eleven, not once have me and my mates sat on a coach or train on our way to a away match or in a Donny boozer before a home match and said "Anyone seen the latest data? Because that will really influence my love of our club today!

You’re quite right. When you’re on your way to watch your team play you’re buzzing. That’s ‘the love’ & long may it remain.

We want ‘bairns’ in their mum & dad’s arms at games. Seven to ten year olds, twelve to fourteen, fifteen to eighteen, eighteen to eighty.

When 15,000 turned out to watch Rovers’ inaugural game at the Keepmoat, what percentage do you think had looked at ‘the stats’ before they attended that day?

When 25,000 plus turned up at Wembley to see us beat ‘mighty’ Leeds & win promotion into the Championship, who ‘fretted’ about xg’s?

I follow the Rovers because they happen to be ‘my club’. Through thick or thin.

Do I really need a ‘bookie’ to tell me the odds on us winning or losing this or that game to influence whether or not I attend a game or believe a certain set of unprecedented results would see us in ‘X’ position?

Nah.

Not for me ta.

But all the best to you who ‘feel the need’.
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: Iberian Red on May 05, 2024, 12:19:00 am
This thread is like a meeting of The Flat Earth Society.

"F#£kin,science, stats,load of shite"
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: NigelJ on May 05, 2024, 12:23:34 am
Question for all the data haters - if it’s such nonsense, why does every football club in the country rely on it?
I'm 63 this year and have supported my club since i was eleven, not once have me and my mates sat on a coach or train on our way to a away match or in a Donny boozer before a home match and said "Anyone seen the latest data? Because that will really influence my love of our club today!

You’re quite right. When you’re on your way to watch your team play you’re buzzing. That’s ‘the love’ & long may it remain.

We want ‘bairns’ in their mum & dad’s arms at games. Seven to ten year olds, twelve to fourteen, fifteen to eighteen, eighteen to eighty.
Don't let any eleven year olds in, we don't want them!
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: GazLaz on May 05, 2024, 07:05:58 am
Question for all the data haters - if it’s such nonsense, why does every football club in the country rely on it?

They don’t. They use it. It is an element. A point of interest and reference but they don’t ‘rely’ on it.



You are wrong in your assessment of its influence in modern day football. Decent example perhaps being Luton. They openly say, without pivoting their approach to being data driven they wouldn’t be in the Premier League. It’s no longer a reference point for most clubs, it’s the back bone of their operation.

That part of football not being for every fan is fine, I’ve said before, there are many different facets of football that different people get different things out of… but without being patronising, smug or whatever else will get thrown at me. If you don’t realise the value of data and accept it’s massive importance in football (in life in general these days) it’s because you don’t understand it and how it is applied.
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: Bollinger on May 05, 2024, 08:15:59 am
Question for all the data haters - if it’s such nonsense, why does every football club in the country rely on it?

They don’t. They use it. It is an element. A point of interest and reference but they don’t ‘rely’ on it.




You are wrong in your assessment of its influence in modern day football. Decent example perhaps being Luton. They openly say, without pivoting their approach to being data driven they wouldn’t be in the Premier League. It’s no longer a reference point for most clubs, it’s the back bone of their operation.

That part of football not being for every fan is fine, I’ve said before, there are many different facets of football that different people get different things out of… but without being patronising, smug or whatever else will get thrown at me. If you don’t realise the value of data and accept it’s massive importance in football (in life in general these days) it’s because you don’t understand it and how it is applied.


I know more than you would realise. My job takes me into 52 of the FL clubs on a regular basis. It’s the emphasis of the use of the words ‘rely’ I am objecting to. Inevitably this came up at a coaching seminar a few months ago and one well known manager pointed out that, ‘It’s A tool we use. It’s not THE tool.’
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: GazLaz on May 05, 2024, 09:39:36 am
Question for all the data haters - if it’s such nonsense, why does every football club in the country rely on it?

They don’t. They use it. It is an element. A point of interest and reference but they don’t ‘rely’ on it.




You are wrong in your assessment of its influence in modern day football. Decent example perhaps being Luton. They openly say, without pivoting their approach to being data driven they wouldn’t be in the Premier League. It’s no longer a reference point for most clubs, it’s the back bone of their operation.

That part of football not being for every fan is fine, I’ve said before, there are many different facets of football that different people get different things out of… but without being patronising, smug or whatever else will get thrown at me. If you don’t realise the value of data and accept it’s massive importance in football (in life in general these days) it’s because you don’t understand it and how it is applied.


I know more than you would realise. My job takes me into 52 of the FL clubs on a regular basis. It’s the emphasis of the use of the words ‘rely’ I am objecting to. Inevitably this came up at a coaching seminar a few months ago and one well known manager pointed out that, ‘It’s A tool we use. It’s not THE tool.’


Obviously not the only tool. Doesn’t mean it can’t be the most important.

Once you can get an accurate as possible reflection of what is happening during a game of football you can use it for pretty much anything (football related obviously!). There is so much happening on a pitch, 22 players, thousands of actions a game, various hand stated during the match etc that it’s impossible for a human to consume everything. Analytics is the only way to get anywhere close.

It’s there and can give you a huge head start. Take what I do for example. We have been the most successful (ROI wise) football betting syndicate in the country in recent seasons. Obviously much much larger syndicates, of which there are only a few leg really, have their ROI limited due to scale etc, but within that sector we have done great. The reason for that is that we have been the best at adding that “human” input into our trading. Thats our edge. I understand the necessity of that as much as anyone.

The thing is, without having models that can also compete with the very very best (Asian bettors, Tony Bloom and Matt Benham and the like) we wouldn’t have a really accurate baseline figure to allow that human input and decision making at the end, to have the impact it does. We are looking for 3%, 4%, 5% (if that) mistakes in the markets. It’s the same in a professional football environment. You can set up a really solid structure based on data and then gain a real edge by getting the human, unquantifiable stuff right as well. The main key to this data structure is that you can maintain consistency LONG TERM, that consistency is much harder to maintain using human decision making alone.
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: DonnyOsmond on May 05, 2024, 10:03:46 am
And different clubs use it to different levels.
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: The Dav on May 05, 2024, 10:47:28 am
My old director once said to me ‘if you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it’ this was business related off course, and I get we’re talking football now,  however I do recognise that while we are all fans, football at a league level is a business ! Look at the wonga involved !
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: graingrover on May 05, 2024, 11:13:43 am
It is exciting to imagine what generative AI will do for football  anaytics .
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: Avsuptem on May 05, 2024, 12:18:52 pm
It's a well known fact that 90% of statistics are made up and the other half are just wrong anyway.
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: WarwickRover on May 05, 2024, 03:11:23 pm
Question for all the data haters - if it’s such nonsense, why does every football club in the country rely on it?

They don’t. They use it. It is an element. A point of interest and reference but they don’t ‘rely’ on it.




You are wrong in your assessment of its influence in modern day football. Decent example perhaps being Luton. They openly say, without pivoting their approach to being data driven they wouldn’t be in the Premier League. It’s no longer a reference point for most clubs, it’s the back bone of their operation.

That part of football not being for every fan is fine, I’ve said before, there are many different facets of football that different people get different things out of… but without being patronising, smug or whatever else will get thrown at me. If you don’t realise the value of data and accept it’s massive importance in football (in life in general these days) it’s because you don’t understand it and how it is applied.


I know more than you would realise. My job takes me into 52 of the FL clubs on a regular basis. It’s the emphasis of the use of the words ‘rely’ I am objecting to. Inevitably this came up at a coaching seminar a few months ago and one well known manager pointed out that, ‘It’s A tool we use. It’s not THE tool.’


Obviously not the only tool. Doesn’t mean it can’t be the most important.

Once you can get an accurate as possible reflection of what is happening during a game of football you can use it for pretty much anything (football related obviously!). There is so much happening on a pitch, 22 players, thousands of actions a game, various hand stated during the match etc that it’s impossible for a human to consume everything. Analytics is the only way to get anywhere close.

It’s there and can give you a huge head start. Take what I do for example. We have been the most successful (ROI wise) football betting syndicate in the country in recent seasons. Obviously much much larger syndicates, of which there are only a few leg really, have their ROI limited due to scale etc, but within that sector we have done great. The reason for that is that we have been the best at adding that “human” input into our trading. Thats our edge. I understand the necessity of that as much as anyone.

The thing is, without having models that can also compete with the very very best (Asian bettors, Tony Bloom and Matt Benham and the like) we wouldn’t have a really accurate baseline figure to allow that human input and decision making at the end, to have the impact it does. We are looking for 3%, 4%, 5% (if that) mistakes in the markets. It’s the same in a professional football environment. You can set up a really solid structure based on data and then gain a real edge by getting the human, unquantifiable stuff right as well. The main key to this data structure is that you can maintain consistency LONG TERM, that consistency is much harder to maintain using human decision making alone.

I agree.... modelling will outperform solely human input over the medium to long term ..... hands down IMO

BTW is 3%, 4%, 5% (which IMO is a fantastic return) ROI%? (i'm assuming it is)

A few questions please, what is the volume of bets you would typically have on a full UK Saturday programme and do you bet on other european leagues?

I appreciate slightly off the original topic but if you wish to take any response off line then fine or if you wish not to answer then also fine
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: Chris Black come back on May 05, 2024, 03:15:23 pm
Winnings tax free so you’d only need to be confident of return of much less eg 3pc to be net well ahead of anything you can get as fixed income or savings, and not too far off long run net equity returns factoring in CGT.
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: GazLaz on May 12, 2024, 11:39:12 am
Right then, £100 the final figure? Just call up and make a payment to the Academy, right?
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: GazLaz on May 21, 2024, 01:36:37 pm
Paid to the academy.
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: donnievic on May 21, 2024, 01:57:54 pm
Get effort lads well done both but top half is 12th and above not 10th lol
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: Pancho Regan on May 21, 2024, 02:38:48 pm
Paid to the academy.

Well done GazLaz
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: Dutch Uncle on May 21, 2024, 02:59:43 pm
Question for all the data haters - if it’s such nonsense, why does every football club in the country rely on it?

They don’t. They use it. It is an element. A point of interest and reference but they don’t ‘rely’ on it.


A good example of a 'decision support system', not a 'decision making system'. I worked for decades in that type of work in a completely different domain. I was always careful to explain that to the human decision makers.
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: IDM on May 22, 2024, 09:59:40 am
This thread is like a meeting of The Flat Earth Society.

"F#£kin,science, stats,load of shite"

I believe the analytical stats are ideal for the coaching side to use, if they help them work out how to improve performances.  I get that they are useful in the betting industry, but I don’t bet so I don’t really care.

As for the “average” football fan, I don’t see stats being important.  How do you measure the feeling when Trotta hit the bar, when Sharp scored vs Boro, Jones’ winner at Stevenage etc.

Spectating enjoyment can be ruined by abysmal officiating or opposition shithousery (Cotteril’s Portsmouth for example) regardless if our team stats were actually good?

Like someone else said, I get a feeling for how well a player has performed by observation.  That will always be subjective and lead to debate - for example lots of folks thought Paul Keegan was crap, but I thought he was very effective in his role.  What were his stats?  I couldn’t give a toss.!

Stats are fine, but for me the stats that count are goals for and against.
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: pigeonhole on May 22, 2024, 12:13:09 pm
This thread is like a meeting of The Flat Earth Society.

"F#£kin,science, stats,load of shite"

I believe the analytical stats are ideal for the coaching side to use, if they help them work out how to improve performances.  I get that they are useful in the betting industry, but I don’t bet so I don’t really care.

As for the “average” football fan, I don’t see stats being important.  How do you measure the feeling when Trotta hit the bar, when Sharp scored vs Boro, Jones’ winner at Stevenage etc.

Spectating enjoyment can be ruined by abysmal officiating or opposition shithousery (Cotteril’s Portsmouth for example) regardless if our team stats were actually good?

Like someone else said, I get a feeling for how well a player has performed by observation.  That will always be subjective and lead to debate - for example lots of folks thought Paul Keegan was crap, but I thought he was very effective in his role.  What were his stats?  I couldn’t give a toss.!

Stats are fine, but for me the stats that count are goals for and against.

You see, I would be interested to see Paul Keegan's stats because there must have been something I was missing.  To the casual observer he couldn't trap a bag of cement, had no discernible vision, skill or pace.  People say he fulfilled a destructive role but was often the wrong side of the ball chasing shadows. 

His stats might point out that he ran 20km a game, was like lightning over the first 2 yards and did, in fact, stifle several opposition attacks per game. 

I think you sometimes you need more information to override innate biases.  Stats will help.
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: Reg of the Rovers on May 22, 2024, 12:33:45 pm
Agree Pigeonhole, and also being clear what you are measuring. Different attributed individuals make a good team - pace, delivery and shot accuracy good for Hurst, but Keegan as case in point is a much blunter tool - interceptions made, tackles won, strength, athleticism, ball turnover etc - and I also thought he had that hard-man persona that gives the oppo a little bit extra doubt. As they say in the Blind Side, the first cheque you cash is for the mortgage, but the second cheque is for the insurance. Horses for courses, and all that.
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: drfcsteve on May 22, 2024, 12:59:39 pm
I think there’s some confusion on data. I don’t think anyone is saying you have to look at the data to enjoy watching a game as a fan. But obviously you do need to look at the data if you are the manager, if you are responsible for recruiting players, etc.

As has been pointed out the clubs that do look very closely at the data, Brighton, Brentford, Luton, have massively overachieved. It doesn’t mean all their fans have to watch games with a spreadsheet open.
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: MachoMadness on May 22, 2024, 01:16:51 pm

I think there’s some confusion on data. I don’t think anyone is saying you have to look at the data to enjoy watching a game as a fan. But obviously you do need to look at the data if you are the manager, if you are responsible for recruiting players, etc.

As has been pointed out the clubs that do look very closely at the data, Brighton, Brentford, Luton, have massively overachieved. It doesn’t mean all their fans have to watch games with a spreadsheet open.
This.

I don't think anyone is suggesting fans go to games with calculators and note pads out. No one on this forum has ever suggested they didn't enjoy a game because Mark Wilson's performance rated a 5.9 rather than a 6.2 on whatever ratings metric they use. But when it comes to player ID it's crucial, you can't just sign players based on gut feelings and passing observations anymore.

As it's part of the club's operation then it's only natural to talk about it the same way we talk about the formation we play or the state of the pitch.
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: drfcsteve on May 23, 2024, 09:07:47 am
I’d argue Brentford Brighton and Luton are all similar size clubs to ourselves, albeit their fan bases have grown as they’ve climbed the leagues, as you’d expect. We’ve played at the same level as all three in recent memory. Just shows what is possible.
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: Chris Black come back on May 23, 2024, 09:17:48 am
All three have definitely been proper shite in living memory and at least as bad as we have been, but historically all three are bigger clubs and have had stints in top flight in living memory in case of Brighton and Luton, while Brentford hasn’t been in top flight for a decent while but are a London club which gives advantages. I get their gates are not amazing but they’ve had some history in top tier and have won or played in finals of proper trophies, even if some time ago.
Title: Re: It’s time.
Post by: big fat yorkshire pudding on May 23, 2024, 12:38:12 pm
Do not discount the money they spent to get there though, huge sums.  Brighton were losing 20m+ a year in the championship. Luton even as smaller spenders last year lost over £8m it's a big ask with or without data.