Viking Supporters Co-operative
Viking Chat => Viking Chat => Topic started by: colincramb on February 19, 2025, 08:16:41 am
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Go on BST, please do your magic and give us some good news…
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Maybe he hasn’t just because it’s not good news?! :whistle:
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No news is good news ?
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Love the BST end of season run-in totaliser thingy
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Love the BST end of season run-in totaliser thingy
So do I, but there are posters waiting to jump on and criticise every post he makes, probably thinks its not worth it
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Probably just about impossible to call too, this season, so many dropping points every week.
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Probably just about impossible to call too, this season, so many dropping points every week.
There you go Filo, exept this time he’s been jumped on BEFORE posting owt.
Unbelievable.
Eh?
I'm not jumping on anyone, wind yer neck in.
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Sorry spud, put wrong quote in.
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Sorry spud, put wrong quote in.
No worries mate, you had me thinking lol.
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I've never noticed BST getting any more criticism than anyone else on the football forum; in fact, he probably gets more likes than negative responses.
Some people making unnecessary mischief here.
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I've never noticed BST getting any more criticism than anyone else on the football forum; in fact, he probably gets more likes than negative responses.
Some people making unnecessary mischief here.
Brilliant SS.
That should be in Tim Vine one liners tho.
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In the meantime, pib posted some points projections on this thread.
https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=293522.30
Also based on PPG here's another projection from Soccerstats.
https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=england4&tid=pp
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I've never noticed BST getting any more criticism than anyone else on the football forum; in fact, he probably gets more likes than negative responses.
Some people making unnecessary mischief here.
Absolutely correct SS.
I often click the like button on some of BSTs posts on the football threads.
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It's coming lads and lasses.
I set up the spreadsheet last week but I've knackered my back and been in bed all week so haven't put the data in yet. Feeling a bit better tonight, so might do it.
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Spreadsheets have a different meaning in my house.
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In the meantime, pib posted some points projections on this thread.
https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=293522.30
Also based on PPG here's another projection from Soccerstats.
https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=england4&tid=pp
t
Crikey, that soccer stats model has us finishing 5th and only just at that.
I think that’s probably a pretty accurate prediction of where we might end up.
Only 3 of the next 7 at home and some difficult away games at Salford, Crewe and bromley.
We’ve given ourselves a tough task.
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In the meantime, pib posted some points projections on this thread.
https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=293522.30
Also based on PPG here's another projection from Soccerstats.
https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=england4&tid=pp
t
Crikey, that soccer stats model has us finishing 5th and only just at that.
I think that’s probably a pretty accurate prediction of where we might end up.
Only 3 of the next 7 at home and some difficult away games at Salford, Crewe and bromley.
We’ve given ourselves a tough task.
It's looking that way. I think we needed a really good if not a flawless February.
Early season I predicted Walsall, Wimbledon as us for Automatic. Wimbledon aren't conceding many and might even be the ones who could catch Walsall.
Sadly, I think Notts Co are looking more likely to get the other auto spot. I can't bring myself to consider Bradford or Port Vale.
We seem to be having too many backs to the wall performances to have any confidence we could put a run together, although that looked very unlikely last season. I think we're too short of firepower when last season we had Ironside, Molyneux, Adelakun and Biamou etc contributing during the run.
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On top of that, can anyone ever remember a more crucial set of fixtures in the last few weeks of the season as we have this year?
April 12- Wimbledon (home)
April 26- Bradford (home)
May 3rd - Notts County (away)
Jesus.
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Spreadsheets have a different meaning in my house.
Met my wife on a grad scheme for an accountancy firm. First line of the best man’s speech was “from spreadsheets to bedsheets”. Still the best opening to a speech I’ve ever heard!
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Spreadsheets have a different meaning in my house.
Met my wife on a grad scheme for an accountancy firm. First line of the best man’s speech was “from spreadsheets to bedsheets”. Still the best opening to a speech I’ve ever heard!
That is very fine work!
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On top of that, can anyone ever remember a more crucial set of fixtures in the last few weeks of the season as we have this year?
April 12- Wimbledon (home)
April 26- Bradford (home)
May 3rd - Notts County (away)
Jesus.
Is the Jesus game home or away?
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We might need Jesus after that run of games is all said and done
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Spreadsheets have a different meaning in my house.
Met my wife on a grad scheme for an accountancy firm. First line of the best man’s speech was “from spreadsheets to bedsheets”. Still the best opening to a speech I’ve ever heard!
At least it wasn't 'from Excel to Ex-Hell'!
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In my day it would have been from Lotus to Symphony :lol:
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on the footballwebpages.co.uk - I came across "the" or "a" prediction thing which has my beloved Carlisle on 26 points for the season - i am sure they meant 62 ! so here it is
https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/league-two/league-table/predicted
and here is a screen print of it
As for the "pantomine" style dangers to Rovers getting third -- in my world "they are behind you"
namely PV & Bradford
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Notts County need to keep their injured players so ! they have to be very carefull "managing" McGoldrick
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on the footballwebpages.co.uk - I came across "the" or "a" prediction thing which has my beloved Carlisle on 26 points for the season - i am sure they meant 62 ! so here it is
https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/league-two/league-table/predicted
and here is a screen print of it
As for the "pantomine" style dangers to Rovers getting third -- in my world "they are behind you"
namely PV & Bradford
"
Notts County need to keep their injured players so ! they have to be very carefull "managing" McGoldrick
So according to this, they predict us to win 5 and draw 2 of our last 7 home games (which include Walsall, Wimbledon and Bradford), but not to win another away game for the rest of the season, despite having the most away points and joint most away wins in the division. That would be surprising.
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On top of that, can anyone ever remember a more crucial set of fixtures in the last few weeks of the season as we have this year?
April 12- Wimbledon (home)
April 26- Bradford (home)
May 3rd - Notts County (away)
Jesus.
Is the Jesus game home or away?
Another game we don't like crosses
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They reckon 6th on here.
https://theanalyst.com/competition/english-league-two
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They reckon 6th on here.
https://theanalyst.com/competition/english-league-two
If it turns out like that we will (I think) be playing three games in a row against Notts County.
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They reckon 6th on here.
https://theanalyst.com/competition/english-league-two
If it turns out like that we will (I think) be playing three games in a row against Notts County.
And I think GM will fail for the 3rd time in the play offs.
Top 3 is an absolute must.
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They reckon 6th on here.
https://theanalyst.com/competition/english-league-two
If it turns out like that we will (I think) be playing three games in a row against Notts County.
And I think GM will fail for the 3rd time in the play offs.
Top 3 is an absolute must.
Tend to agree. We haven't really laid a glove on the teams around us so to have to beat two of them to go up doesn't fill me with confidence. DP's team in 03/04 didn't really have a great record against the top 7 either (Mansfield aside), was just a case of smashing the lower end of the table which is something we need to find a way to do.
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Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.
Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.
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Just had a quick look to last seasons table & Wrexham occupied 3rd spot on 59 points from 32 games. All to play for, really need to put a run together now.
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On top of that, can anyone ever remember a more crucial set of fixtures in the last few weeks of the season as we have this year?
April 12- Wimbledon (home)
April 26- Bradford (home)
May 3rd - Notts County (away)
Jesus.
Is the Jesus game home or away?
- it’s on the shores of the Sea of Galilee. Only loaves and fishes and red wine available on the concourse.
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On top of that, can anyone ever remember a more crucial set of fixtures in the last few weeks of the season as we have this year?
April 12- Wimbledon (home)
April 26- Bradford (home)
May 3rd - Notts County (away)
Jesus.
Is the Jesus game home or away?
If it's away, can you tell me how to get there please?
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On top of that, can anyone ever remember a more crucial set of fixtures in the last few weeks of the season as we have this year?
April 12- Wimbledon (home)
April 26- Bradford (home)
May 3rd - Notts County (away)
Jesus.
Is the Jesus game home or away?
If it's away, can you tell me how to get there please?
it's at High Cross Warwickshire near Rugby if you are trying to get there
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On top of that, can anyone ever remember a more crucial set of fixtures in the last few weeks of the season as we have this year?
April 12- Wimbledon (home)
April 26- Bradford (home)
May 3rd - Notts County (away)
Jesus.
Is the Jesus game home or away?
If it's away, can you tell me how to get there please?
Camels
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Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.
Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.
Teams around us will all drop points, some will definitely have a wobble.
Don’t forget they all play each other too so not all of them will end the season unscathed.
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if we had drawn all 3 matches at Chessie, home to Grimsby and also at Morecambe - we would be on a 7 game unbeaten run with the same amount of points and we would be a lot more optimistic ??
ignoring the goal difference loss !!
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Walsall, Wimbledon, Notts County and us have been the best four teams in L2 since day one. No reason to think that won’t be the top 4 come the end of the season.
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On top of that, can anyone ever remember a more crucial set of fixtures in the last few weeks of the season as we have this year?
April 12- Wimbledon (home)
April 26- Bradford (home)
May 3rd - Notts County (away)
Jesus.
Is the Jesus game home or away?
If it's away, can you tell me how to get there please?
it's at High Cross Warwickshire near Rugby if you are trying to get there
Nailed on 3 points there. They are terrible on crosses.
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It's coming lads and lasses.
I set up the spreadsheet last week but I've knackered my back and been in bed all week so haven't put the data in yet. Feeling a bit better tonight, so might do it.
this is really "weird" (apologies for using someone's catchphrase)
I have been going on at Mrs Coleman for 6 weeks about going to see a proper Chiropractic /Chinese Acupuncturist - she made the appointment on Monday and today was the day 11 am - she feels much better already - has a trapped nerve she has now booked 6x one hour sessions for £345* plus paid for some herbal pads to stick on her back at night
Today included having the needles (twenty of them all over the place) in for 20 minutes plus the massage for 10 minutes .
Alternatively you might simply buy a bottle of "Wong To Yick" "Wood Lock" no that's not the name of the North Korean goalscorer who put Italy out of the World cup (that was Pak do Ik)
Here is a scan of the stuff - it's nearly empty -- it used to be imported from Hong Kong our bottle has an Expiry Date of 2011 and it still works - they even sell it on ebay . Mrs Coleman says Chemists sell it Mrs BST I am sure will rub it in for you
*My Carlisle winnings will pay for that
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It's coming lads and lasses.
I set up the spreadsheet last week but I've knackered my back and been in bed all week so haven't put the data in yet. Feeling a bit better tonight, so might do it.
this is really "weird" (apologies for using someone's catchphrase)
I have been going on at Mrs Coleman for 6 weeks about going to see a proper Chiropractic /Chinese Acupuncturist - she made the appointment on Monday and today was the day 11 am - she feels much better already - has a trapped nerve she has now booked 6x one hour sessions for £345 plus paid for some herbal pads to stick on her back at night
Today included having the needles (twenty of them all over the place) in for 20 minutes plus the massage for 10 minutes .
Alternatively you might simply buy a bottle of "Wong To Yick" "Wood Lock" no that's not the name of the North Korean goalscorer who put Italy out of the World cup (that was Pak do Ik)
Here is a scan of the stuff - it's nearly empty -- it used to be imported from Hong Kong our bottle has an Expiry Date of 2011 and it still works - they even sell it on ebay . Mrs Coleman says Chemists sell it Mrs BST I am sure will rub it in for you
Are you okay?
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If you had proper back pain you would not be Ok
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Our lass goes to choirpractice at our local church every week, and it costs her nowt.
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I make an eight hour round trip every 12 weeks to get Botox treatment for migraines. It does help, but with an injection needle put into my head, neck, back and forehead, the treatment is very painful. I have to take a couple of days off work to recover.
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After a couple of bottles of Australian Shiraz, 13.5% I get a really stingy arse the following morning – Any thoughts?
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After a couple of bottles of Australian Shiraz, 13.5% I get a really stingy arse the following morning – Any thoughts?
Stop sitting on nettles whilst you drink it
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After a couple of bottles of Australian Shiraz, 13.5% I get a really stingy arse the following morning – Any thoughts?
And your farts smell like spunk?
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Medical treatment in Chinese pharmacies and hospitals ( in large cities) cities invariable offer Western or Chinese medical treatment. Acupuncture, massage and natural products typify the Chinese way . I bet the way players get treatment in China is very different too.
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Medical treatment in Chinese pharmacies and hospitals ( in large cities) cities invariable offer Western or Chinese medical treatment. Acupuncture, massage and natural products typify the Chinese way . I bet the way players get treatment in China is very different too.
I wonder what treatment said players receive dealing with the record amounts of pollution in China brought about by western governments transferring production there and having huge ships transporting goods halfway round the world whilst pronouncing their green credentials?
How many different user names have you had now?
Very Woke...
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You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....
Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.
So, here's this evening's prediction.
1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65
Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.
88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.
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It's a really, really shit league this season.
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Why do you say that.?
What is “shit” about it.?
Walsall aside (at the moment), loads of teams including ours are in the frame to compete for automatic promotion whilst in danger of missing the play offs. In terms of the overall competition that’s quite exciting isn’t it?
That we are in second place despite not being in the best of form performance wise, is more reflective of this being the 4th division IMHO.
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Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.
Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.
We have won 6 games out of the last 8, 18 points from 24.
That’s remarkable form yet you’re talking like we’ve been on some kind of terrible run
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Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.
Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.
We have won 6 games out of the last 8, 18 points from 24.
That’s remarkable form yet you’re talking like we’ve been on some kind of terrible run
We've won 7 of the last 10.
Every one was against a bottom half CORRECTION a top 10 side. We've played 3 games in that run against top half 10 sides, lost all three and looked distinctly second best.
That's my point.
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You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....
Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.
So, here's this evening's prediction.
1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65
Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.
88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.
But we’re currently 2nd, if we average 2 points a game then we will finish in the top 3,
Last 10 games were averaging 2.1and last 20 were averaging 1.9.
So the form we’re in and have been for 20 games now would be border line good enough, a light improvement and we’re there
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Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.
Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.
We have won 6 games out of the last 8, 18 points from 24.
That’s remarkable form yet you’re talking like we’ve been on some kind of terrible run
We've won 7 of the last 10.
Every one was against a bottom half side. We've played 3 games in that run against top half sides, lost all three and looked distinctly second best.
That's my point.
We didn’t look distinctly second best at chesterfield,
Wimbledon only drew today against a midtable side, you can only beat what’s in front of you and we’re doing that most weeks currently
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Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.
Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.
We have won 6 games out of the last 8, 18 points from 24.
That’s remarkable form yet you’re talking like we’ve been on some kind of terrible run
We've won 7 of the last 10.
Every one was against a bottom half side. We've played 3 games in that run against top half sides, lost all three and looked distinctly second best.
That's my point.
Kind of agree with that. We’ve played two abysmal teams this week and laboured past them.
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Newport 16th
Bromley 10th
Swindon 15th
Crewe 7th
Salford 9th
Carlisle 24th
Walsall 1st
Cheltenham 11th
Wimbledon 3rd
Tranmere 22nd
Colchester 12th
Bradford 5th
Notts County 4th
So if we get 4 wins from the bottom half sides we need to win 4 sides in the top half to get promotion. I think 82 with some draws thrown in will be enough…
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Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.
Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.
We have won 6 games out of the last 8, 18 points from 24.
That’s remarkable form yet you’re talking like we’ve been on some kind of terrible run
We've won 7 of the last 10.
Every one was against a bottom half side. We've played 3 games in that run against top half sides, lost all three and looked distinctly second best.
That's my point.
In that run of 10 games, we've played against sides that were in the following positions on the day we played them.
Fleetwood: 16th (W)
Port Vale: 6th (L)
Gillingham: 14th (W)
Harrogate: 18th (W)
Barrow: 15th (W)
MK Dons: 11th (W)
Chesterfield: 10th (L)
Grimsby: 9th (L)
Morecambe: 23rd (W)
Accrington: 21st (W)
Great that we've got 7 wins out of ten from those. Really. But that is undoubtedly one of the easiest runs of 10 games you're going to have all season. And in that run, we've only fractionally exceeded the PPG that's likely to be necessary to secure 3rd place (2.10 Vs 1.91).
I'm sure I'm wrong and you're now going to tell me why though.
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And your farts smell like spunk?
[/quote]
Now that is really strange…!
I’ve not noticed a spunk whiff - more fruity with a usually a hint of poultry
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You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....
Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.
So, here's this evening's prediction.
1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65
Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.
88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.
But we’re currently 2nd, if we average 2 points a game then we will finish in the top 3,
Last 10 games were averaging 2.1and last 20 were averaging 1.9.
So the form we’re in and have been for 20 games now would be border line good enough, a light improvement and we’re there
I'll have a bet with you.
If we average 2 points a game from here on in, we'll not finish in the top 4.
£20 to a charity of your choice.
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Ok!
The average points for 3rd place over last 3 years has been 83 points, we would have 84 so not sure why you’re so confident
It’s obviously going to be very very close
Average for 4th place is 79. So we would comfortably make that
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Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.
Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.
We have won 6 games out of the last 8, 18 points from 24.
That’s remarkable form yet you’re talking like we’ve been on some kind of terrible run
We've won 7 of the last 10.
Every one was against a bottom half side. We've played 3 games in that run against top half sides, lost all three and looked distinctly second best.
That's my point.
We didn’t look distinctly second best at chesterfield,
Wimbledon only drew today against a midtable side, you can only beat what’s in front of you and we’re doing that most weeks currently
Were you actually at the Chesterfield match and watching it?
We were absolutely dreadful. We were cut open every time they launched anything resembling a meaningful attack. We flattered to deceive in the first half, while producing little in the way of actual threat before our goal. Then came out in the second half like our half time oranges had been laced with Mogadon.
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Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.
Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.
We have won 6 games out of the last 8, 18 points from 24.
That’s remarkable form yet you’re talking like we’ve been on some kind of terrible run
We've won 7 of the last 10.
Every one was against a bottom half side. We've played 3 games in that run against top half sides, lost all three and looked distinctly second best.
That's my point.
We didn’t look distinctly second best at chesterfield,
Wimbledon only drew today against a midtable side, you can only beat what’s in front of you and we’re doing that most weeks currently
Were you actually at the Chesterfield match and watching it?
We were absolutely dreadful. We were cut open every time they launched anything resembling a meaningful attack. We flattered to deceive in the first half, while producing little in the way of actual threat before our goal. Then came out in the second half like our half time oranges had been laced with Mogadon.
Yes I was there and I thought we were very good in the first half, by far the better side.
And in no way were we distinctly second best,
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Ok!
The average points for 3rd place over last 3 years has been 83 points, we would have 84 so not sure why you’re so confident
It’s obviously going to be very very close
Because I'm looking at how many sides are currently both above us in ppg, and a staging something above or very close to 2ppg already. Past average means nugget all.
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Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.
Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.
We have won 6 games out of the last 8, 18 points from 24.
That’s remarkable form yet you’re talking like we’ve been on some kind of terrible run
We've won 7 of the last 10.
Every one was against a bottom half side. We've played 3 games in that run against top half sides, lost all three and looked distinctly second best.
That's my point.
We didn’t look distinctly second best at chesterfield,
Wimbledon only drew today against a midtable side, you can only beat what’s in front of you and we’re doing that most weeks currently
Colchester are decent we drew against them too. And they’re now unbeaten in 8.
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Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.
Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.
We have won 6 games out of the last 8, 18 points from 24.
That’s remarkable form yet you’re talking like we’ve been on some kind of terrible run
We've won 7 of the last 10.
Every one was against a bottom half side. We've played 3 games in that run against top half sides, lost all three and looked distinctly second best.
That's my point.
We didn’t look distinctly second best at chesterfield,
Wimbledon only drew today against a midtable side, you can only beat what’s in front of you and we’re doing that most weeks currently
Were you actually at the Chesterfield match and watching it?
We were absolutely dreadful. We were cut open every time they launched anything resembling a meaningful attack. We flattered to deceive in the first half, while producing little in the way of actual threat before our goal. Then came out in the second half like our half time oranges had been laced with Mogadon.
Yes I was there and I thought we were very good in the first half, by far the better side.
And in no way were we distinctly second best,
I really should know better. If you honestly think we weren't distinctly second best in that game and that controlling play in the middle of the park while creating sod all and conceding every time the opposition got the ball in our box is grand, we are watching different sports.
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Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.
Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.
We have won 6 games out of the last 8, 18 points from 24.
That’s remarkable form yet you’re talking like we’ve been on some kind of terrible run
We've won 7 of the last 10.
Every one was against a bottom half side. We've played 3 games in that run against top half sides, lost all three and looked distinctly second best.
That's my point.
We didn’t look distinctly second best at chesterfield,
Wimbledon only drew today against a midtable side, you can only beat what’s in front of you and we’re doing that most weeks currently
Colchester are decent we drew against them too. And they’re now unbeaten in 8.
That wasn't in the last 10 games. Which I always take as my touchstone for recent form.
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Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.
Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.
We have won 6 games out of the last 8, 18 points from 24.
That’s remarkable form yet you’re talking like we’ve been on some kind of terrible run
We've won 7 of the last 10.
Every one was against a bottom half side. We've played 3 games in that run against top half sides, lost all three and looked distinctly second best.
That's my point.
Kind of agree with that. We’ve played two abysmal teams this week and laboured past them.
This.
We CAN still do it, but not playing like we've played for the past 2 months. We need a distinct improvement because the next 13 games are FAR tougher than the past 10.
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You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....
Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.
So, here's this evening's prediction.
1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65
Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.
88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.
But we’re currently 2nd, if we average 2 points a game then we will finish in the top 3,
Last 10 games were averaging 2.1and last 20 were averaging 1.9.
So the form we’re in and have been for 20 games now would be border line good enough, a light improvement and we’re there
Highlighted text is factually wrong.
We've averaged 1.75 ppg over the past 20 games. That isn't remotely close to the level likely to be needed to achieve a top 3 position this year.
I'll stick my neck out and say a side that averages 1.75ppg for the season this year might JUST squeak 6th place.
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We're getting to the stage where form goes out of the window. Yes, of course we'd expect to be beating Accrington and Morecombe but these are no gimme, and both of those clubs will be fighting for their lives and will probably take points off our rivals.
There's alot more than form needed to win games. Character, guile, bravery, camaraderie a bit of luck too.
Missing players through suspension is not going to help us. Someone said Kelly is a bit part player, whether that's true or not, we need everyone as subs can help win or lose games no matter how few minutes they might get. The teams that finish 90+ minutes with the freshest legs and clearest heads are mote likely. An 80 minute table will look so much different to the actual table for the last dozen games.
We've seem teams at the top end get squeaky bums and drop points while trying to get over the line. For those reasons, I don't think 88 points will be needed. Achieving two points per game is really difficult for most teams with the exception of those who are streets ahead. Maybe Walsall? but definitely not as clear cut as previous seasons.
Woody, Tom and Billy will hopefully have a big influence as we enter the run in just by their experience.
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Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.
Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.
We have won 6 games out of the last 8, 18 points from 24.
That’s remarkable form yet you’re talking like we’ve been on some kind of terrible run
We've won 7 of the last 10.
Every one was against a bottom half side. We've played 3 games in that run against top half sides, lost all three and looked distinctly second best.
That's my point.
Kind of agree with that. We’ve played two abysmal teams this week and laboured past them.
This.
We CAN still do it, but not playing like we've played for the past 2 months. We need a distinct improvement because the next 13 games are FAR tougher than the past 10.
We have got worse as the season has gone on. We are lucky we have good players that can step up the pace against teams they are better than.
We start games ok because they go out there with a tempo and step onto teams but this can’t be maintained because there’s no real structure behind it so consistency can’t be maintained.
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Despite all the doom and gloom from some quarters, we have maintained our position in the top three and make no mistake, fans of other clubs will be saying similar things that certain members of our fan base are saying.
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You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....
Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.
So, here's this evening's prediction.
1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65
Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.
88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.
But we’re currently 2nd, if we average 2 points a game then we will finish in the top 3,
Last 10 games were averaging 2.1and last 20 were averaging 1.9.
So the form we’re in and have been for 20 games now would be border line good enough, a light improvement and we’re there
Highlighted text is factually wrong.
We've averaged 1.75 ppg over the past 20 games. That isn't remotely close to the level likely to be needed to achieve a top 3 position this year.
I'll stick my neck out and say a side that averages 1.75ppg for the season this year might JUST squeak 6th place.
Correct me if I’m wrong but the first of 20 games was Bradford away, we’ve gained 38 points in those 20 games which equates to 1.9 points per game
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Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.
Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.
We have won 6 games out of the last 8, 18 points from 24.
That’s remarkable form yet you’re talking like we’ve been on some kind of terrible run
We've won 7 of the last 10.
Every one was against a bottom half side. We've played 3 games in that run against top half sides, lost all three and looked distinctly second best.
That's my point.
Kind of agree with that. We’ve played two abysmal teams this week and laboured past them.
To be fair, almost everyone labours past these two teams
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Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.
Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.
We have won 6 games out of the last 8, 18 points from 24.
That’s remarkable form yet you’re talking like we’ve been on some kind of terrible run
We've won 7 of the last 10.
Every one was against a bottom half side. We've played 3 games in that run against top half sides, lost all three and looked distinctly second best.
That's my point.
We didn’t look distinctly second best at chesterfield,
Wimbledon only drew today against a midtable side, you can only beat what’s in front of you and we’re doing that most weeks currently
Were you actually at the Chesterfield match and watching it?
We were absolutely dreadful. We were cut open every time they launched anything resembling a meaningful attack. We flattered to deceive in the first half, while producing little in the way of actual threat before our goal. Then came out in the second half like our half time oranges had been laced with Mogadon.
Yes I was there and I thought we were very good in the first half, by far the better side.
And in no way were we distinctly second best,
I really should know better. If you honestly think we weren't distinctly second best in that game and that controlling play in the middle of the park while creating sod all and conceding every time the opposition got the ball in our box is grand, we are watching different sports.
Everyone around me at chesterfield was commenting on how we had played in that first half, comments on here by almost everyone were regards how well we played in the first half.
You might not agree with that but to suggest we were distinctly second best is nonsense
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Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.
Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.
We have won 6 games out of the last 8, 18 points from 24.
That’s remarkable form yet you’re talking like we’ve been on some kind of terrible run
We've won 7 of the last 10.
Every one was against a bottom half side. We've played 3 games in that run against top half sides, lost all three and looked distinctly second best.
That's my point.
Kind of agree with that. We’ve played two abysmal teams this week and laboured past them.
To be fair, almost everyone labours past these two teams
Almost all of Accrington’s defeats have been by a one goal margin.
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Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.
Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.
We have won 6 games out of the last 8, 18 points from 24.
That’s remarkable form yet you’re talking like we’ve been on some kind of terrible run
We've won 7 of the last 10.
Every one was against a bottom half side. We've played 3 games in that run against top half sides, lost all three and looked distinctly second best.
That's my point.
Kind of agree with that. We’ve played two abysmal teams this week and laboured past them.
This.
We CAN still do it, but not playing like we've played for the past 2 months. We need a distinct improvement because the next 13 games are FAR tougher than the past 10.
We have got worse as the season has gone on. We are lucky we have good players that can step up the pace against teams they are better than.
We start games ok because they go out there with a tempo and step onto teams but this can’t be maintained because there’s no real structure behind it so consistency can’t be maintained.
Interesting post this as you could take it from different points of view.
'We have got worse as the season has gone on ....' but we are 2nd in the league. (not sure what criteria you are using to say we are worse but thats not my point)
To be fair we could be getting worse and that by chance we are punching above our weight, i.e been lucky. Or we could be better and that our results should be better i.e we've been unlucky.
what are we? a lucky team or unlucky team?
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You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....
Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.
So, here's this evening's prediction.
1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65
Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.
88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.
But we’re currently 2nd, if we average 2 points a game then we will finish in the top 3,
Last 10 games were averaging 2.1and last 20 were averaging 1.9.
So the form we’re in and have been for 20 games now would be border line good enough, a light improvement and we’re there
Highlighted text is factually wrong.
We've averaged 1.75 ppg over the past 20 games. That isn't remotely close to the level likely to be needed to achieve a top 3 position this year.
I'll stick my neck out and say a side that averages 1.75ppg for the season this year might JUST squeak 6th place.
Correct me if I’m wrong but the first of 20 games was Bradford away, we’ve gained 38 points in those 20 games which equates to 1.9 points per game
You're wrong.
Right that the last 20 matches started at Bradford. But our run since then is:
P20 W10 D5 L5 Pts35 PPG1.75
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I keep saying it, but this could be the shittest promotion in our history.
If it happens, I'll be over the moon because I'm sick of this awful division.
I do worry that we'll come straight back down, but that's for another day.
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Skybet has us 4th favourites for promotion at present behind Walsall, Notts and Wimbledon.
That’s the most accurate prediction you can get.
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Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.
Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.
We have won 6 games out of the last 8, 18 points from 24.
That’s remarkable form yet you’re talking like we’ve been on some kind of terrible run
We've won 7 of the last 10.
Every one was against a bottom half side. We've played 3 games in that run against top half sides, lost all three and looked distinctly second best.
That's my point.
Kind of agree with that. We’ve played two abysmal teams this week and laboured past them.
This.
We CAN still do it, but not playing like we've played for the past 2 months. We need a distinct improvement because the next 13 games are FAR tougher than the past 10.
We have got worse as the season has gone on. We are lucky we have good players that can step up the pace against teams they are better than.
We start games ok because they go out there with a tempo and step onto teams but this can’t be maintained because there’s no real structure behind it so consistency can’t be maintained.
Interesting post this as you could take it from different points of view.
'We have got worse as the season has gone on ....' but we are 2nd in the league. (not sure what criteria you are using to say we are worse but thats not my point)
To be fair we could be getting worse and that by chance we are punching above our weight, i.e been lucky. Or we could be better and that our results should be better i.e we've been unlucky.
what are we? a lucky team or unlucky team?
If I was a betting man I would say we have more chance of promotion than not achieving promotion
You can't really look at tables without taking matches played into account.
In terms of PPG, we are currently 6th. After a dozen games we were 4th.
Yes it's tight margins and yes we could still do it. But the stats and the performances both say to me that we so far this season, we've been not quite there. And I don't think the performances have significantly improved recently, barring the MK Dons game in which I thought we were superb.
EDIT. I'd add I thought we were also superb at Barrow which is the one and only time this season we've demolished a side who set up with a low block against us.
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I'm assuming your stats re ppg is based on this seasons games, 33 games ... is this a sufficient number of games to draw inference?
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Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.
Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.
We have won 6 games out of the last 8, 18 points from 24.
That’s remarkable form yet you’re talking like we’ve been on some kind of terrible run
We've won 7 of the last 10.
Every one was against a bottom half side. We've played 3 games in that run against top half sides, lost all three and looked distinctly second best.
That's my point.
Kind of agree with that. We’ve played two abysmal teams this week and laboured past them.
To be fair, almost everyone labours past these two teams
Almost all of Accrington’s defeats have been by a one goal margin.
Morecambe have lost 11 games 1-0,
Just seems an extreme negative viewpoint to state we struggled to win away from home in these 2 games.
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Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.
Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.
We have won 6 games out of the last 8, 18 points from 24.
That’s remarkable form yet you’re talking like we’ve been on some kind of terrible run
We've won 7 of the last 10.
Every one was against a bottom half side. We've played 3 games in that run against top half sides, lost all three and looked distinctly second best.
That's my point.
Kind of agree with that. We’ve played two abysmal teams this week and laboured past them.
To be fair, almost everyone labours past these two teams
Almost all of Accrington’s defeats have been by a one goal margin.
Morecambe have lost 11 games 1-0,
Just seems an extreme negative viewpoint to state we struggled to win away from home in these 2 games.
I couldn’t agree more.
We are coming into the time of year when teams fighting off relegation start to pick up unexpected points.
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I'm assuming your stats re ppg is based on this seasons games, 33 games ... is this a sufficient number of games to draw inference?
The most important time to see who got the best ppg is after 46 games.
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Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.
Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.
We have won 6 games out of the last 8, 18 points from 24.
That’s remarkable form yet you’re talking like we’ve been on some kind of terrible run
We've won 7 of the last 10.
Every one was against a bottom half side. We've played 3 games in that run against top half sides, lost all three and looked distinctly second best.
That's my point.
We didn’t look distinctly second best at chesterfield,
Wimbledon only drew today against a midtable side, you can only beat what’s in front of you and we’re doing that most weeks currently
Colchester are decent we drew against them too. And they’re now unbeaten in 8.
That wasn't in the last 10 games. Which I always take as my touchstone for recent form.
So you’ll agree we’re in great form if that’s your touchstone, yet you’ve just said we need to significantly improve on the last two months, which covers those ten games.
A big contradiction in there.
And we all know at this point of the season there aren’t any easy games, whoever we face,
Almost all are going to be playing for something
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I'm assuming your stats re ppg is based on this seasons games, 33 games ... is this a sufficient number of games to draw inference?
I'm sorry, I don't understand your point.
It's a fact that there are currently 5 sides who have earned more points per game so far this season than we have. I'm drawing no inference other than staying that as a fact.
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Points per game is only relevant once all the games are finished
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Points per game is only relevant once all the games are finished
But other league tables aren't?
Thread going THAT way is it?
Have fun. I'm out.
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I would’ve thought after last seasons thread you would’ve knocked it on the head this year
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If we maintain. 1.75 pts per game say, up to the last 4 games, we are likely be in the mix. Anything can happen from there.
Last season for example, other than Stockport and ourselves who were way above 2 pts per game for the last 12, the other promotion hopefuls were
Wrexham 2.00ppg
Mansfield 1.67ppg
MK Dons 1.67ppg
Crawley 1.08ppg
Crewe 0.60ppg
Of course, there were some extreme variations but the beauty of 3 points per game means owt can happen to any team, we should know that..
After 33 games last season we had 39 points in 20th place!
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If we maintain. 1.75 pts per game say, up to the last 4 games, we are likely be in the mix. Anything can happen from there.
Last season for example, other than Stockport and ourselves who were way above 2 pts per game for the last 12, the other promotion hopefuls were
Wrexham 2.00ppg
Mansfield 1.67ppg
MK Dons 1.67ppg
Crawley 1.08ppg
Crewe 0.60ppg
Of course, there were some extreme variations but the beauty of 3 points per game means owt can happen to any team, we should know that..
After 33 games last season we had 39 points in 20th place!
Yes, agreed, we'd be in the mix. But if that did happen, I reckon the most likely outcome is that we'd need to win the last 4.
Me, I'd look at the rest of the season like this.
If my predictor is right and 3rd place is going to need say 86 points at the low end we've got a mountain to climb. That's 28 points needed from 13 games.
P13 W9 D1 L3
The others around us can do it slightly easier. Bradford, Wimbledon and Notts C can all hit that target with 29 from 14
P14 W9 D2 L3
Port Vale can do it with 31 from 15
P15 W10 D1 L4.
There's not MUCH in it for sure and you wouldn't bet on any specific team hitting that target. But chances are a couple will. And in that case, the probability, is that we won't. (Because there's more ways of being one of three who don't hit it, than one of two who do.
If we ARE going to make it, we've got to be realistic. We have as hard a run in as you can imagine. In the final 7 games we play the 4 sides currently occupying the top 4 places in the PPG table, plus Cheltenham and Colchester who have both been in play-off form for a couple of months. If we go into that run needing to win 6 of them, chances are it ain't going to happen.
So this next 6 games are absolutelt vital. I reckon we probably need a return of summat like P6 W4 D1 L1. That'd still leave us likely needing to win 5 of the last 7 which is still a massive ask. Let's start chalking the wins off.
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Yes, I think we'll need 9 wins, which means our home form must improve.
Plus, statistically, the 15 min period between 45 and 60 mins is our downfall for conceding the most goals than any other period. That doesn't say much for McCanns h/t teamtalk. That's got to be reversed.
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I keep saying it, but this could be the shittest promotion in our history.
If it happens, I'll be over the moon because I'm sick of this awful division.
I do worry that we'll come straight back down, but that's for another day.
No chance it could be worse than that league 2 season under ferguson.
16/17 when we won the league at Easter but still finished 3rd.
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I would’ve thought after last seasons thread you would’ve knocked it on the head this year
Why do you have to be such a div?
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Points per game is only relevant once all the games are finished
How is PPG table not relevant now but in your mind the league table right now is relevant ? Making it up as you go along for whatever suits
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Points per game is only relevant once all the games are finished
How is PPG table not relevant now but in your mind the league table right now is relevant ? Making it up as you go along for whatever suits
I spent all last season trying to explain to all you negative folk that the league table is irrelevant until the end of the season
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Points per game is only relevant once all the games are finished
How is PPG table not relevant now but in your mind the league table right now is relevant ? Making it up as you go along for whatever suits
I spent all last season trying to explain to all you negative folk that the league table is irrelevant until the end of the season
You have now dropped the ppg relevance , ppg gives an accurate picture of how a team is currently performing, it does away with the games in hand and gives a true reflection of where we are in relation to other teams
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I would’ve thought after last seasons thread you would’ve knocked it on the head this year
Why do you have to be such a div?
All it shows, Colin, is that he talks out of his a*^% but we knew that before today.
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Points per game is only relevant once all the games are finished
What on earth are you talking about?
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Points per game is only relevant once all the games are finished
How is PPG table not relevant now but in your mind the league table right now is relevant ? Making it up as you go along for whatever suits
I spent all last season trying to explain to all you negative folk that the league table is irrelevant until the end of the season
And you’ve spent all this season saying “look at the league table”
“ we’re second” “we’re third” “we’re sixth” etc
Have you not?
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I see that Opta are predicting us as a 6th place finish on 78-79 points. Feels about right to me given how we’ve been playing.
My ‘Hail Mary’ for an automatic place is that Wood comes back for the last 10 games and gives us the leadership that we’ve been lacking all season and which was so instrumental to our push last year. Wishing on a star stuff I know.
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Thanks BST. You did warn us we might not like it and it has sparked some great debate.
I can't help agreeing with the majority that we are just going to fall short of the automatics and that isn't based on the ppg, just the evidence of my own eyes.
I was there yesterday and Tuesday and we are not quite right still in terms of performance but I see today that Grant has acknowledged that we need to be better going forward.
I am hopeful, not based on anything I've seen, that we will suddenly click and even if we don't win games, we will start to look more threatening ( we have in spells recently MK Dons and Palace at home spring to mind)
That said, one goal leads always lead to nervous performances, especially this time of year and we have had good chances to kill the opposition off in the two recent victories- Streete and Gibson in both games- which we haven't taken.
The other thing that gives me confidence we can get over the line is our bench and Grant's changes. He is proactive, the subs impact the game and we always look better.
Team selection to begin with is a debate for another time
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Honestly, I'd be fine if we finished 4th, and got a favourable tie in the play offs, with home advantage in the 2nd leg.
Feel we got cheated out of Wembley last season and I'm still gutted about that, and it's the best way to get promoted as we all know :rtid:
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If we maintain. 1.75 pts per game say, up to the last 4 games, we are likely be in the mix. Anything can happen from there.
Last season for example, other than Stockport and ourselves who were way above 2 pts per game for the last 12, the other promotion hopefuls were
Wrexham 2.00ppg
Mansfield 1.67ppg
MK Dons 1.67ppg
Crawley 1.08ppg
Crewe 0.60ppg
Of course, there were some extreme variations but the beauty of 3 points per game means owt can happen to any team, we should know that..
After 33 games last season we had 39 points in 20th place!
Yes, agreed, we'd be in the mix. But if that did happen, I reckon the most likely outcome is that we'd need to win the last 4.
Me, I'd look at the rest of the season like this.
If my predictor is right and 3rd place is going to need say 86 points at the low end we've got a mountain to climb. That's 28 points needed from 13 games.
P13 W9 D1 L3
The others around us can do it slightly easier. Bradford, Wimbledon and Notts C can all hit that target with 29 from 14
P14 W9 D2 L3
Port Vale can do it with 31 from 15
P15 W10 D1 L4.
There's not MUCH in it for sure and you wouldn't bet on any specific team hitting that target. But chances are a couple will. And in that case, the probability, is that we won't. (Because there's more ways of being one of three who don't hit it, than one of two who do.
If we ARE going to make it, we've got to be realistic. We have as hard a run in as you can imagine. In the final 7 games we play the 4 sides currently occupying the top 4 places in the PPG table, plus Cheltenham and Colchester who have both been in play-off form for a couple of months. If we go into that run needing to win 6 of them, chances are it ain't going to happen.
So this next 6 games are absolutelt vital. I reckon we probably need a return of summat like P6 W4 D1 L1. That'd still leave us likely needing to win 5 of the last 7 which is still a massive ask. Let's start chalking the wins off.
On the other hand if we beat Walsall, Wimbledon, Bradford & Notts Co (extremely tough ask I know but 3 are at home!) we would hopefully have a good chance of top 3 so long as we keep up our current form alongside those predictions.
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You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....
Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.
So, here's this evening's prediction.
1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65
Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.
88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.
Interesting. Very surprised by the high predicted points totals for 2nd and 3rd. Looking at season-to-date PPG this was recently tracking at 81-83 points, so to see 86-88 is surprising, albeit I understand this methodology is probably more nuanced in taking into account recent form.
Not saying this prediction won’t be accurate, and not particularly disagreeing, but it did prompt me to dive a bit deeper.
For 2nd and 3rd place teams to reach 89 and 88 points respectively, of the realistic contenders, it would require the following teams to have the following PPG record between now and the end of the season. (BTW I know this model isn’t about individual teams, but individual teams do actually have to play out the real-life scenario, and below are the ones who are realistically the most likely to do it)
Rovers: 2.38 PPG for 89 points, 2.31 PPG for 88.
Wimbledon: 2.28 PPG for 89, 2.21 PPG for 88.
Notts County: 2.28 PPG for 89, 2.21 PPG for 88.
Bradford: 2.28 PPG for 89, 2.21 PPG for 88.
Port Vale: 2.26 PPG for 89, 2.2 PPG for 88.
The one thing that’s been nagging at me since reading this is, only Walsall so far this season have averaged 2 PPG or more over the season. The rest of the runners and riders have been much more inconsistent.
I think the “last 8 games PPG” might be skewing this a bit. Maybe this makes it more accurate, or maybe it makes it less accurate: https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=england4&tid=re (if the link doesn’t work, find “relative form” table)
Notts County, Bradford, Rovers and Port Vale are all over performing their season-to-date PPG in the last 8 games by between 20-34%. But 14-15 games is a big chunk of the season (30% ish) - have any of these teams shown so far that they are likely to not only sustain that over the last 13-15 games, but also combine this with the previous 8, so effectively keep up the sort of run required to get to 88-89 points over the course of 21-23 games? It would take ages to do the maths on that which I haven’t got time to do, but it feels unlikely because if they had it in them, we’d have more teams closer to Walsall’s current tally surely?
Maybe they will. Surely that would be quite unusual though because it would mean those teams being in better-than-title-form for nearly half a season, in what feels like a division full of competitive but quite inconsistent teams? It seems to me like there is a chance this will settle down and we might find that the 5 teams in contention for 2nd/3rd place (assuming Walsall are already in a strong enough position to be near-certs) will drop back towards something resembling their season-long PPG over the run-in.
Using season-to-date PPG model here’s the projection, ordered this time in terms of highest PPG, not the PPG of the teams that are currently there:
1st: 94.76 points (2.06 PPG)
2nd: 81.88 points (1.78 PPG)
3rd: 81.88 points (1.78 PPG)
4th: 81.88 points (1.78 PPG)
5th: 81.42 points (1.77 PPG)
6th: 80.6 points (1.76 PPG)
Soccer Stats “projected points” table, which takes into account the strength of run-in opponents and home/away records, predicts the following expected points, in order of most to least:
Walsall: 93.38
Wimbledon: 83.26
Port Vale: 82.98
Bradford: 81.55
Rovers: 80.54
Notts: 79.50
This isn’t a million miles away from the above season-to-date PPG projection.
There is also the run-in to take into account. Here’s the “Opponents remaining PPG” for us and the teams around us:
Wimbledon: 1.30
Port Vale: 1.30
Bradford: 1.36
Rovers: 1.36
Notts: 1.44
Again, really close, but suggests we have a similar difficulty run-in to Bradford, slightly easier than Notts County, and slightly more difficult than Vale and Wimbledon.
Whichever way you look at it, it looks like it’s going to be incredibly tight. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if 2nd and 3rd place are decided on the final day.
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Honestly, I'd be fine if we finished 4th, and got a favourable tie in the play offs, with home advantage in the 2nd leg.
Feel we got cheated out of Wembley last season and I'm still gutted about that, and it's the best way to get promoted as we all know :rtid:
How were we cheated out of a Wembley appearance last season? We lost 0-2 fair and square as far as i can recall, and a penalty shoot out is a lottery.
I don’t want to have to be in the play offs, if that should now be an absolute minimum.
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Honestly, I'd be fine if we finished 4th, and got a favourable tie in the play offs, with home advantage in the 2nd leg.
Feel we got cheated out of Wembley last season and I'm still gutted about that, and it's the best way to get promoted as we all know :rtid:
How were we cheated out of a Wembley appearance last season? We lost 0-2 fair and square as far as i can recall, and a penalty shoot out is a lottery.
I don’t want to have to be in the play offs, if that should now be an absolute minimum.
I’m not 100% sure I am remembering correctly but didn’t we have a couple of really decent pen shouts turned down late in the second leg match.
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You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....
Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.
So, here's this evening's prediction.
1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65
Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.
88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.
Interesting. Very surprised by the high predicted points totals for 2nd and 3rd. Looking at season-to-date PPG this was recently tracking at 81-83 points, so to see 86-88 is surprising, albeit I understand this methodology is probably more nuanced in taking into account recent form.
Not saying this prediction won’t be accurate, and not particularly disagreeing, but it did prompt me to dive a bit deeper.
For 2nd and 3rd place teams to reach 89 and 88 points respectively, of the realistic contenders, it would require the following teams to have the following PPG record between now and the end of the season. (BTW I know this model isn’t about individual teams, but individual teams do actually have to play out the real-life scenario, and below are the ones who are realistically the most likely to do it)
Rovers: 2.38 PPG for 89 points, 2.31 PPG for 88.
Wimbledon: 2.28 PPG for 89, 2.21 PPG for 88.
Notts County: 2.28 PPG for 89, 2.21 PPG for 88.
Bradford: 2.28 PPG for 89, 2.21 PPG for 88.
Port Vale: 2.26 PPG for 89, 2.2 PPG for 88.
The one thing that’s been nagging at me since reading this is, only Walsall so far this season have averaged 2 PPG or more over the season. The rest of the runners and riders have been much more inconsistent.
I think the “last 8 games PPG” might be skewing this a bit. Maybe this makes it more accurate, or maybe it makes it less accurate: https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=england4&tid=re (if the link doesn’t work, find “relative form” table)
Notts County, Bradford, Rovers and Port Vale are all over performing their season-to-date PPG in the last 8 games by between 20-34%. But 14-15 games is a big chunk of the season (30% ish) - have any of these teams shown so far that they are likely to not only sustain that over the last 13-15 games, but also combine this with the previous 8, so effectively keep up the sort of run required to get to 88-89 points over the course of 21-23 games? It would take ages to do the maths on that which I haven’t got time to do, but it feels unlikely because if they had it in them, we’d have more teams closer to Walsall’s current tally surely?
Maybe they will. Surely that would be quite unusual though because it would mean those teams being in better-than-title-form for nearly half a season, in what feels like a division full of competitive but quite inconsistent teams? It seems to me like there is a chance this will settle down and we might find that the 5 teams in contention for 2nd/3rd place (assuming Walsall are already in a strong enough position to be near-certs) will drop back towards something resembling their season-long PPG over the run-in.
Using season-to-date PPG model here’s the projection, ordered this time in terms of highest PPG, not the PPG of the teams that are currently there:
1st: 94.76 points (2.06 PPG)
2nd: 81.88 points (1.78 PPG)
3rd: 81.88 points (1.78 PPG)
4th: 81.88 points (1.78 PPG)
5th: 81.42 points (1.77 PPG)
6th: 80.6 points (1.76 PPG)
Soccer Stats “projected points” table, which takes into account the strength of run-in opponents and home/away records, predicts the following expected points, in order of most to least:
Walsall: 93.38
Wimbledon: 83.26
Port Vale: 82.98
Bradford: 81.55
Rovers: 80.54
Notts: 79.50
This isn’t a million miles away from the above season-to-date PPG projection.
There is also the run-in to take into account. Here’s the “Opponents remaining PPG” for us and the teams around us:
Wimbledon: 1.30
Port Vale: 1.30
Bradford: 1.36
Rovers: 1.36
Notts: 1.44
Again, really close, but suggests we have a similar difficulty run-in to Bradford, slightly easier than Notts County, and slightly more difficult than Vale and Wimbledon.
Whichever way you look at it, it looks like it’s going to be incredibly tight. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if 2nd and 3rd place are decided on the final day.
Great work.
Yes we have the most difficult run-in on paper compared to the teams that can overtake us with their games in hand.
Port Vake currently have a striker shortage though. Notts and Wimbledon aren’t blowing teams away. Bradford seem very solid, but I see Pattison went off in the first half who’s been an important player for them - could be out injured?
Average league table position of opposition remaining:
Port Vale 13.53
Wimbledon 12.4
Bradford 11.79
Notts 11.07
Doncaster 10.69
-
You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....
Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.
So, here's this evening's prediction.
1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65
Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.
88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.
Interesting. Very surprised by the high predicted points totals for 2nd and 3rd. Looking at season-to-date PPG this was recently tracking at 81-83 points, so to see 86-88 is surprising, albeit I understand this methodology is probably more nuanced in taking into account recent form.
Not saying this prediction won’t be accurate, and not particularly disagreeing, but it did prompt me to dive a bit deeper.
For 2nd and 3rd place teams to reach 89 and 88 points respectively, of the realistic contenders, it would require the following teams to have the following PPG record between now and the end of the season. (BTW I know this model isn’t about individual teams, but individual teams do actually have to play out the real-life scenario, and below are the ones who are realistically the most likely to do it)
Rovers: 2.38 PPG for 89 points, 2.31 PPG for 88.
Wimbledon: 2.28 PPG for 89, 2.21 PPG for 88.
Notts County: 2.28 PPG for 89, 2.21 PPG for 88.
Bradford: 2.28 PPG for 89, 2.21 PPG for 88.
Port Vale: 2.26 PPG for 89, 2.2 PPG for 88.
The one thing that’s been nagging at me since reading this is, only Walsall so far this season have averaged 2 PPG or more over the season. The rest of the runners and riders have been much more inconsistent.
I think the “last 8 games PPG” might be skewing this a bit. Maybe this makes it more accurate, or maybe it makes it less accurate: https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=england4&tid=re (if the link doesn’t work, find “relative form” table)
Notts County, Bradford, Rovers and Port Vale are all over performing their season-to-date PPG in the last 8 games by between 20-34%. But 14-15 games is a big chunk of the season (30% ish) - have any of these teams shown so far that they are likely to not only sustain that over the last 13-15 games, but also combine this with the previous 8, so effectively keep up the sort of run required to get to 88-89 points over the course of 21-23 games? It would take ages to do the maths on that which I haven’t got time to do, but it feels unlikely because if they had it in them, we’d have more teams closer to Walsall’s current tally surely?
Maybe they will. Surely that would be quite unusual though because it would mean those teams being in better-than-title-form for nearly half a season, in what feels like a division full of competitive but quite inconsistent teams? It seems to me like there is a chance this will settle down and we might find that the 5 teams in contention for 2nd/3rd place (assuming Walsall are already in a strong enough position to be near-certs) will drop back towards something resembling their season-long PPG over the run-in.
Using season-to-date PPG model here’s the projection, ordered this time in terms of highest PPG, not the PPG of the teams that are currently there:
1st: 94.76 points (2.06 PPG)
2nd: 81.88 points (1.78 PPG)
3rd: 81.88 points (1.78 PPG)
4th: 81.88 points (1.78 PPG)
5th: 81.42 points (1.77 PPG)
6th: 80.6 points (1.76 PPG)
Soccer Stats “projected points” table, which takes into account the strength of run-in opponents and home/away records, predicts the following expected points, in order of most to least:
Walsall: 93.38
Wimbledon: 83.26
Port Vale: 82.98
Bradford: 81.55
Rovers: 80.54
Notts: 79.50
This isn’t a million miles away from the above season-to-date PPG projection.
There is also the run-in to take into account. Here’s the “Opponents remaining PPG” for us and the teams around us:
Wimbledon: 1.30
Port Vale: 1.30
Bradford: 1.36
Rovers: 1.36
Notts: 1.44
Again, really close, but suggests we have a similar difficulty run-in to Bradford, slightly easier than Notts County, and slightly more difficult than Vale and Wimbledon.
Whichever way you look at it, it looks like it’s going to be incredibly tight. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if 2nd and 3rd place are decided on the final day.
Great work.
Yes we have the most difficult run-in on paper compared to the teams that can overtake us with their games in hand.
Port Vake currently have a striker shortage though. Notts and Wimbledon aren’t blowing teams away. Bradford seem very solid, but I see Pattison went off in the first half who’s been an important player for them - could be out injured?
Average league table position of opposition remaining:
Port Vale 13.53
Wimbledon 12.4
Bradford 11.79
Notts 11.07
Doncaster 10.69
Bradford are excellent at home, but their away record isn’t as good at 14th best in the division, and 3 wins from 15 games.
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Love the BST end of season run-in totaliser thingy
So do I, but there are posters waiting to jump on and criticise every post he makes, probably thinks its not worth it
The evidence is here to see on four pages.
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Love the BST end of season run-in totaliser thingy
So do I, but there are posters waiting to jump on and criticise every post he makes, probably thinks its not worth it
This sort of analysis is endlessly fascinating. The effort that people put into it is admirable. I used to do it when my brain worked more efficiently, so it is joy to benefit from the work of others.
The evidence is here to see on four pages.
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Honestly, I'd be fine if we finished 4th, and got a favourable tie in the play offs, with home advantage in the 2nd leg.
Feel we got cheated out of Wembley last season and I'm still gutted about that, and it's the best way to get promoted as we all know :rtid:
How were we cheated out of a Wembley appearance last season? We lost 0-2 fair and square as far as i can recall, and a penalty shoot out is a lottery.
I don’t want to have to be in the play offs, if that should now be an absolute minimum.
Calm yourself down fella, I'm saying it's how I felt given the circumstances, 10 in a row, being 2-0 up in the first leg, penalties at their end, and the antics of their goalkeeper, which was cheating in my opinion.
No way we are finishing top 3, 4th would be brilliant.
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Love the BST end of season run-in totaliser thingy
So do I, but there are posters waiting to jump on and criticise every post he makes, probably thinks its not worth it
Don’t count me in that group Filo.
I’m more than happy to read the predictions and see how they change over the ensuing weeks to their conclusions.
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I’m of the opinion that 84 points will be enough to get an automatic place.
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Honestly, I'd be fine if we finished 4th, and got a favourable tie in the play offs, with home advantage in the 2nd leg.
Feel we got cheated out of Wembley last season and I'm still gutted about that, and it's the best way to get promoted as we all know :rtid:
How were we cheated out of a Wembley appearance last season? We lost 0-2 fair and square as far as i can recall, and a penalty shoot out is a lottery.
I don’t want to have to be in the play offs, if that should now be an absolute minimum.
Calm yourself down fella, I'm saying it's how I felt given the circumstances, 10 in a row, being 2-0 up in the first leg, penalties at their end, and the antics of their goalkeeper, which was cheating in my opinion.
No way we are finishing top 3, 4th would be brilliant.
Perfectly calm thank you..
Disappointed yes, I get it, and frustrated. But not cheated.
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Now is the time we have to move up a gear. I still think we're in a good position for a automatic spot. I have a funny feeling Walsall will fall away as will another. Hopefully not us but it happens most seasons. You always get a team come from nowhere and challenge.
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https://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-league-two/
Predictor for anyone who fancies it.
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That looks like a bit of fun DO.
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Points per game is only relevant once all the games are finished
How is PPG table not relevant now but in your mind the league table right now is relevant ? Making it up as you go along for whatever suits
I spent all last season trying to explain to all you negative folk that the league table is irrelevant until the end of the season
And you’ve spent all this season saying “look at the league table”
“ we’re second” “we’re third” “we’re sixth” etc
Have you not?
No I haven’t!
If the league table wasn’t there for reference and a stranger came across this forum they would be convinced we were in a relegation battle and not sitting in 2nd place
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I’m of the opinion that 84 points will be enough to get an automatic place.
Me too,
Billy thinks 84 won’t get us even into 4th.
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Points per game is only relevant once all the games are finished
What on earth are you talking about?
It’s not difficult,
Points per game is irrelvent until everyone has played the same number of games.
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Points per game is only relevant once all the games are finished
What on earth are you talking about?
It’s not difficult,
Points per game is irrelvent until everyone has played the same number of games.
Sorry that doesn’t make sense.
If all the teams have played the same amount of games, either during or at the end of the season, then the table itself is absolute and accurate. Any extrapolation would leave clubs in the same positions. So therefore ppg becomes pointless.
It is when teams have played a different amount of games that ppg helps to compare. A team could have 2ppg but be quite a few places off top spot if they’ve had a few postponements and a cup run. Of course, there is never a guarantee of ppg continuing the same for the rest of the season..
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Oh how I wish we had beaten Chessie and Grimsby !
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Points per game is only relevant once all the games are finished
What on earth are you talking about?
It’s not difficult,
Points per game is irrelvent until everyone has played the same number of games.
Wgat a complete load of cack.
If you really believe this, your saying you'd rather have 50 points after 30 games than 49 points after 25.
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You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....
Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.
So, here's this evening's prediction.
1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65
Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.
88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.
Interesting. Very surprised by the high predicted points totals for 2nd and 3rd. Looking at season-to-date PPG this was recently tracking at 81-83 points, so to see 86-88 is surprising, albeit I understand this methodology is probably more nuanced in taking into account recent form.
Not saying this prediction won’t be accurate, and not particularly disagreeing, but it did prompt me to dive a bit deeper.
For 2nd and 3rd place teams to reach 89 and 88 points respectively, of the realistic contenders, it would require the following teams to have the following PPG record between now and the end of the season. (BTW I know this model isn’t about individual teams, but individual teams do actually have to play out the real-life scenario, and below are the ones who are realistically the most likely to do it)
Rovers: 2.38 PPG for 89 points, 2.31 PPG for 88.
Wimbledon: 2.28 PPG for 89, 2.21 PPG for 88.
Notts County: 2.28 PPG for 89, 2.21 PPG for 88.
Bradford: 2.28 PPG for 89, 2.21 PPG for 88.
Port Vale: 2.26 PPG for 89, 2.2 PPG for 88.
The one thing that’s been nagging at me since reading this is, only Walsall so far this season have averaged 2 PPG or more over the season. The rest of the runners and riders have been much more inconsistent.
I think the “last 8 games PPG” might be skewing this a bit. Maybe this makes it more accurate, or maybe it makes it less accurate: https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=england4&tid=re (if the link doesn’t work, find “relative form” table)
Notts County, Bradford, Rovers and Port Vale are all over performing their season-to-date PPG in the last 8 games by between 20-34%. But 14-15 games is a big chunk of the season (30% ish) - have any of these teams shown so far that they are likely to not only sustain that over the last 13-15 games, but also combine this with the previous 8, so effectively keep up the sort of run required to get to 88-89 points over the course of 21-23 games? It would take ages to do the maths on that which I haven’t got time to do, but it feels unlikely because if they had it in them, we’d have more teams closer to Walsall’s current tally surely?
Maybe they will. Surely that would be quite unusual though because it would mean those teams being in better-than-title-form for nearly half a season, in what feels like a division full of competitive but quite inconsistent teams? It seems to me like there is a chance this will settle down and we might find that the 5 teams in contention for 2nd/3rd place (assuming Walsall are already in a strong enough position to be near-certs) will drop back towards something resembling their season-long PPG over the run-in.
Using season-to-date PPG model here’s the projection, ordered this time in terms of highest PPG, not the PPG of the teams that are currently there:
1st: 94.76 points (2.06 PPG)
2nd: 81.88 points (1.78 PPG)
3rd: 81.88 points (1.78 PPG)
4th: 81.88 points (1.78 PPG)
5th: 81.42 points (1.77 PPG)
6th: 80.6 points (1.76 PPG)
Soccer Stats “projected points” table, which takes into account the strength of run-in opponents and home/away records, predicts the following expected points, in order of most to least:
Walsall: 93.38
Wimbledon: 83.26
Port Vale: 82.98
Bradford: 81.55
Rovers: 80.54
Notts: 79.50
This isn’t a million miles away from the above season-to-date PPG projection.
There is also the run-in to take into account. Here’s the “Opponents remaining PPG” for us and the teams around us:
Wimbledon: 1.30
Port Vale: 1.30
Bradford: 1.36
Rovers: 1.36
Notts: 1.44
Again, really close, but suggests we have a similar difficulty run-in to Bradford, slightly easier than Notts County, and slightly more difficult than Vale and Wimbledon.
Whichever way you look at it, it looks like it’s going to be incredibly tight. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if 2nd and 3rd place are decided on the final day.
Great analysis pib and yes, I took find it hard to believe that a total as high as 88 will be required for 3rd spot.
But I've frequently thought "Yeah, THAT doesn't sound right" over the years when I've cracked out these predictions and more often than not found them to be actually quite close to the mark.
There's no saying they will be right this time and they aren't always. And in any case, they are rarely spot on - more an indication of a likely range as things currently look. So I'd read "88" as "Likely but not certain to be in the range 86-90"
You're right by the way that the high totals currently predicted are because several sides have been in excellent form recently (in terms of PPG over the past 10 games). Specifically, Bradford and Notts C, then slightly behind them us, PV and Wimbledon.
For what it's worth (and DON'T read the model like this) the predicted points total per side of you extrapolate current PPG through to the end of the season are:
1st place: 90 Walsall
2nd 89: Bradford
3rd 88 Notts C
4/5th 85 Donny/Wimbledon
6th 82 PV
Here's the thing though. That's not how it works. The idea is that the model reckons SOME team will end up in 2nd with 89, and one in 3rd with 88.
And yes, it's very unlikely that any specific one of the five teams in 2-6th place at the moment will get 89 points and finish second. Because that will take a hell of a run of form as you say. But it's less unlikely that ONE of thosr five will have that run. Similar argument for 88 points for 3rd place.
The limitations of the model are clear, and you correctly identified them. It depends on the assumption that on average (not for each team) current PPG more or less continues. That can produce very weird predictions when there are the rare cases where teams already near the top are in exceptional form which clearly cannot continue.
So, a few weeks ago, with Bradford and Walsall both in long term stellar form, it was predicting that first place would get 104 points and second place would get 96 or something like that. That was never realistic.
We'll see how these predictions settle down over the next 2-3 weeks. Usually by mid March they are closing in quite accurately.
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Points per game is only relevant once all the games are finished
What on earth are you talking about?
It’s not difficult,
Points per game is irrelvent until everyone has played the same number of games.
Remind me again of how automatic promotion and play off positions were decided when the season was aborted due to covid and teams had played a different amount of games.
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The only advantage I can think of from having played more games is that having an extra midweek game might fatigue our rivals more (when you include the travel, where applicable) and also have a knock-on effect on their following Saturday game due to them having fewer rest/preparation days. Could this take away a fraction of the advantage of having games in hand? Might be clutching at straws though as it's all a bit intangible.
FWIW we'll not have to wait long until the games played (mostly) level out....
Tuesday 25th Feb
Bromley v Bradford
Cheltenham v Walsall
Tuesday 11th March
Wimbledon v Cheltenham
Colchester v Port Vale
Grimsby v Notts County
Tuesday 25th March
Port Vale v Barrow
Mostly tough-looking games-in-hand for our promotion rivals on paper, so you never know. Cheltenham are in good form and have a big say, Colchester away is a tricky game-in-hand for Vale, as is Notts County's visit to Grimsby. Bradford have to go to Bromley who are no mugs, and Bradford's away record as previously highlighted is not great (W3, D6, L6).
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For goodness sake people lighten up. Billy was asked to put up his prediction, however he bases it. It is not tablets of stone people have their own opinions , that's fine but to attack this bit of fun in the way some are doing is ridiculous
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You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....
Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.
So, here's this evening's prediction.
1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65
Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.
88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.
Interesting. Very surprised by the high predicted points totals for 2nd and 3rd. Looking at season-to-date PPG this was recently tracking at 81-83 points, so to see 86-88 is surprising, albeit I understand this methodology is probably more nuanced in taking into account recent form.
Not saying this prediction won’t be accurate, and not particularly disagreeing, but it did prompt me to dive a bit deeper.
For 2nd and 3rd place teams to reach 89 and 88 points respectively, of the realistic contenders, it would require the following teams to have the following PPG record between now and the end of the season. (BTW I know this model isn’t about individual teams, but individual teams do actually have to play out the real-life scenario, and below are the ones who are realistically the most likely to do it)
Rovers: 2.38 PPG for 89 points, 2.31 PPG for 88.
Wimbledon: 2.28 PPG for 89, 2.21 PPG for 88.
Notts County: 2.28 PPG for 89, 2.21 PPG for 88.
Bradford: 2.28 PPG for 89, 2.21 PPG for 88.
Port Vale: 2.26 PPG for 89, 2.2 PPG for 88.
The one thing that’s been nagging at me since reading this is, only Walsall so far this season have averaged 2 PPG or more over the season. The rest of the runners and riders have been much more inconsistent.
I think the “last 8 games PPG” might be skewing this a bit. Maybe this makes it more accurate, or maybe it makes it less accurate: https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=england4&tid=re (if the link doesn’t work, find “relative form” table)
Notts County, Bradford, Rovers and Port Vale are all over performing their season-to-date PPG in the last 8 games by between 20-34%. But 14-15 games is a big chunk of the season (30% ish) - have any of these teams shown so far that they are likely to not only sustain that over the last 13-15 games, but also combine this with the previous 8, so effectively keep up the sort of run required to get to 88-89 points over the course of 21-23 games? It would take ages to do the maths on that which I haven’t got time to do, but it feels unlikely because if they had it in them, we’d have more teams closer to Walsall’s current tally surely?
Maybe they will. Surely that would be quite unusual though because it would mean those teams being in better-than-title-form for nearly half a season, in what feels like a division full of competitive but quite inconsistent teams? It seems to me like there is a chance this will settle down and we might find that the 5 teams in contention for 2nd/3rd place (assuming Walsall are already in a strong enough position to be near-certs) will drop back towards something resembling their season-long PPG over the run-in.
Using season-to-date PPG model here’s the projection, ordered this time in terms of highest PPG, not the PPG of the teams that are currently there:
1st: 94.76 points (2.06 PPG)
2nd: 81.88 points (1.78 PPG)
3rd: 81.88 points (1.78 PPG)
4th: 81.88 points (1.78 PPG)
5th: 81.42 points (1.77 PPG)
6th: 80.6 points (1.76 PPG)
Soccer Stats “projected points” table, which takes into account the strength of run-in opponents and home/away records, predicts the following expected points, in order of most to least:
Walsall: 93.38
Wimbledon: 83.26
Port Vale: 82.98
Bradford: 81.55
Rovers: 80.54
Notts: 79.50
This isn’t a million miles away from the above season-to-date PPG projection.
There is also the run-in to take into account. Here’s the “Opponents remaining PPG” for us and the teams around us:
Wimbledon: 1.30
Port Vale: 1.30
Bradford: 1.36
Rovers: 1.36
Notts: 1.44
Again, really close, but suggests we have a similar difficulty run-in to Bradford, slightly easier than Notts County, and slightly more difficult than Vale and Wimbledon.
Whichever way you look at it, it looks like it’s going to be incredibly tight. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if 2nd and 3rd place are decided on the final day.
Great analysis pib and yes, I took find it hard to believe that a total as high as 88 will be required for 3rd spot.
But I've frequently thought "Yeah, THAT doesn't sound right" over the years when I've cracked out these predictions and more often than not found them to be actually quite close to the mark.
There's no saying they will be right this time and they aren't always. And in any case, they are rarely spot on - more an indication of a likely range as things currently look. So I'd read "88" as "Likely but not certain to be in the range 86-90"
You're right by the way that the high totals currently predicted are because several sides have been in excellent form recently (in terms of PPG over the past 10 games). Specifically, Bradford and Notts C, then slightly behind them us, PV and Wimbledon.
For what it's worth (and DON'T read the model like this) the predicted points total per side of you extrapolate current PPG through to the end of the season are:
1st place: 90 Walsall
2nd 89: Bradford
3rd 88 Notts C
4/5th 85 Donny/Wimbledon
6th 82 PV
Here's the thing though. That's not how it works. The idea is that the model reckons SOME team will end up in 2nd with 89, and one in 3rd with 88.
And yes, it's very unlikely that any specific one of the five teams in 2-6th place at the moment will get 89 points and finish second. Because that will take a hell of a run of form as you say. But it's less unlikely that ONE of thosr five will have that run. Similar argument for 88 points for 3rd place.
The limitations of the model are clear, and you correctly identified them. It depends on the assumption that on average (not for each team) current PPG more or less continues. That can produce very weird predictions when there are the rare cases where teams already near the top are in exceptional form which clearly cannot continue.
So, a few weeks ago, with Bradford and Walsall both in long term stellar form, it was predicting that first place would get 104 points and second place would get 96 or something like that. That was never realistic.
We'll see how these predictions settle down over the next 2-3 weeks. Usually by mid March they are closing in quite accurately.
It'll be possibly one of the most interesting seasons to-date in terms of how this model plays out.
Take your point about it being unlikely one of the teams doesn't have that sort of run. That makes me think that 88-89 might be required for 2nd, but possibly a lower total might be OK for third. Probably too early to tell though, and like you say, a few more weeks will likely tell us if the exceptional form of some of the teams will continue, or revert back to something resembling the first half of the season.
Another thing that surprised me about the high totals of 88-89 for 3rd-2nd (and I know this is more anecdotal, and previous seasons are to a large extent irrelevant), is that would better what Wrexham/Mansfield got last year (88 and 86 respectively). It felt last year that the top 3 were SO much better than the rest of the division, in a way that it doesn't feel like anybody except Walsall is this year. To think that two of Rovers, Wimbledon, Port Vale, Bradford or Notts County would better these totals, and get to within 3-4 points of what Stockport achieved last year just doesn't feel right.
There's not much I can statistically offer to back this up though, other than the fact that those two teams had both scored over 60 goals at this stage last season (Stockport had 71), whereas the five teams behind Walsall this season are in the 40s for goals scored, with only Notts County hitting 50, which hints at a much closer division this time.
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The only advantage I can think of from having played more games is that having an extra midweek game might fatigue our rivals more (when you include the travel, where applicable) and also have a knock-on effect on their following Saturday game due to them having fewer rest/preparation days. Could this take away a fraction of the advantage of having games in hand? Might be clutching at straws though as it's all a bit intangible.
FWIW we'll not have to wait long until the games played (mostly) level out....
Tuesday 25th Feb
Bromley v Bradford
Cheltenham v Walsall
Tuesday 11th March
Wimbledon v Cheltenham
Colchester v Port Vale
Grimsby v Notts County
Tuesday 25th March
Port Vale v Barrow
Mostly tough-looking games-in-hand for our promotion rivals on paper, so you never know. Cheltenham are in good form and have a big say, Colchester away is a tricky game-in-hand for Vale, as is Notts County's visit to Grimsby. Bradford have to go to Bromley who are no mugs, and Bradford's away record as previously highlighted is not great (W3, D6, L6).
It's not going to be easy for any team. Things can change very quickly in football and to date, the table has been kind to us, as when we've slipped up, so have others.
I guess most of us feel the way we've played doesn't warrant being in 2nd place.
Most pointers suggest we'll just fall short of Automatic and the gut says we can't afford any more slip ups and we maybe have to pull a big one out of the bag at some point by beating our closest rivals, almost feeling like knock out football.
The only thing that matters is the next game, it's that simple.
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Some great stuff in this thread. The Danish wit and raconteur Storm Pedersen once said, ‘predictions are very difficult, especially for the future’, so I won’t add to the predictions here. But for some context I will put up the historical average points for positions 1-8 in this division in the 43 seasons since 3 points per win was introduced. For seasons with less than 46 matches played, I have used the dreaded ppg to give a 46-game total for a fair comparison. Note this is not just the COVID season, there were some seasons with only 22 clubs and 42 matches played)
1st: Avg 90.4, High 102, Low 82
2nd: Avg 84.9, High 97, Low 79
3rd: Avg 82.1, High 91, Low 75
4th: Avg 79.2, High 88, Low 72
5th: Avg 75.8, High 82, Low 70
6th: Avg 73.4, High 81, Low 69
7th: Avg 71.5, High 79, Low 68
8th: Avg 69.4. High 76, Low 62
So, the highest points scored which did not make 3rd was 88 by Bournemouth in 1981-82 when there were no playoffs and 4th secured automatic promotion. The highest in fourth place, which missed out on auto and entered the playoffs was by Accrington Stanley 85 in 2015-16, and they missed out on goal difference only.
So yes, it looks like a high number this year, but 88 would be ground-breaking.
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Points per game is only relevant once all the games are finished
What on earth are you talking about?
It’s not difficult,
Points per game is irrelvent until everyone has played the same number of games.
Bloody hell, maths ain’t your strong point is it? If you believe what you’ve just said then you might be best leaving the thread to the adults that can interpret and analyse data without just one agenda
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Whilst the quality of football across the division feels spectacularly poor, this is proving to be a very competitive season at the top end. As a result, any points predictor like this is fascinating (or I think so anyway). As an eternal optimist I retain the belief that we can get enough points to see us over the line, and that we have a strong enough squad (and good enough manager) to navigate the additional challenges we’re going to face. However a glance at the table shows it’s very precariously balanced and I don’t think we can criticise a calculation model for saying we might not make it! This is a dynamic situation and if we keep on winning (or others start to falter) then the prediction will naturally change from where it is right now. I have to believe that we have more in us in terms of performance, and that the results will come with that. But that’s the nature of a football fan isn’t it. I’m also very biased by my own admission and have been wrong more times than I could ever care to remember! So I find prediction modelling grounding and fascinating.
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Honestly, I'd be fine if we finished 4th, and got a favourable tie in the play offs, with home advantage in the 2nd leg.
Feel we got cheated out of Wembley last season and I'm still gutted about that, and it's the best way to get promoted as we all know :rtid:
How were we cheated out of a Wembley appearance last season? We lost 0-2 fair and square as far as i can recall, and a penalty shoot out is a lottery.
I don’t want to have to be in the play offs, if that should now be an absolute minimum.
Calm yourself down fella, I'm saying it's how I felt given the circumstances, 10 in a row, being 2-0 up in the first leg, penalties at their end, and the antics of their goalkeeper, which was cheating in my opinion.
No way we are finishing top 3, 4th would be brilliant.
Perfectly calm thank you..
Disappointed yes, I get it, and frustrated. But not cheated.
OK, I see your completely missing the point, let's move on.
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Just a note:
Here's an indication of how sensitive the model is to results at the moment Bradford and Walsall are playing at Bromley and Cheltenham tomorrow.
If Bradford and Walsall both win, the predictor would say this.
1st 90 93
2nd 89 91
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65
If they both lose, it will say
1st 90 88
2nd 89 86
3rd 88 85
4th 85 85
5th 85 84
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70 71
9th 69
10th 65 66
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As I said further up the thread, I like this and how it evolves as time goes by.
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Some good food for thought on this thread; well done all those who have put in the time and effort to come up with the various predictions.
Based purely on the games I've watched, and despite the fact that I always err on the side of positivity regarding Rovers, I have a sneaking concern that we don't quite have what it takes to finish in the top three. It hurts even typing that!
I'm a little concerned that we have almost never managed an emphatic victory, and our relatively poor goal difference is evidence of that. I fear that may come back to haunt us.
Those defeats to Chesterfield and Grimsby may prove pivotal come the end of the season.
I always take great encouragement from Grant's post-match interviews. I don't think there is a more honest manager in the league, and he never tries to hide from reality regarding our performances.
He is the first to recognise that we regularly fail to kill teams off, and too often end up scraping a win when we could / should have won more comfortably. The first step towards improvement is recognising where the shortcomings are, and Grant gets it.
I keep thinking we will click and blow some team away with a dominant performance and a big win, but it has arguably happened only a couple of times this season.
On the other hand, having said all that, we sit 2nd in the table coming to the end of February and there are many points still to play for. Our recent form is excellent, with 6 League wins wrapped around those two defeats. That bodes well for the run-in if we can keep it up.
It's going to be a white-knuckle ride but we can do it!
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Something positive for our next few fixtures:
Newport’s away league position is worse than their actual league position
Bromley’s home league position is worse than their actual league position
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Has anyone mentioned one game at a time?
Sorry, 2025 boring fart award goes to…
It is absolutely tights as a …
It’s good stuff though, we are right in there, lose the plot for a couple of games then scrap out a couple of wins, Bogey team coming next.
What more do we want? It’s great really.
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Some great stuff in this thread. The Danish wit and raconteur Storm Pedersen once said, ‘predictions are very difficult, especially for the future’, so I won’t add to the predictions here. But for some context I will put up the historical average points for positions 1-8 in this division in the 43 seasons since 3 points per win was introduced. For seasons with less than 46 matches played, I have used the dreaded ppg to give a 46-game total for a fair comparison. Note this is not just the COVID season, there were some seasons with only 22 clubs and 42 matches played)
1st: Avg 90.4, High 102, Low 82
2nd: Avg 84.9, High 97, Low 79
3rd: Avg 82.1, High 91, Low 75
4th: Avg 79.2, High 88, Low 72
5th: Avg 75.8, High 82, Low 70
6th: Avg 73.4, High 81, Low 69
7th: Avg 71.5, High 79, Low 68
8th: Avg 69.4. High 76, Low 62
So, the highest points scored which did not make 3rd was 88 by Bournemouth in 1981-82 when there were no playoffs and 4th secured automatic promotion. The highest in fourth place, which missed out on auto and entered the playoffs was by Accrington Stanley 85 in 2015-16, and they missed out on goal difference only.
So yes, it looks like a high number this year, but 88 would be ground-breaking.
I agree with this Dutch,
If we get 2 points a game from now on in, 84 points will be enough in my opinion.
A small improvement on this form and we’re almost guaranteed a top 3 spot.
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Some good food for thought on this thread; well done all those who have put in the time and effort to come up with the various predictions.
Based purely on the games I've watched, and despite the fact that I always err on the side of positivity regarding Rovers, I have a sneaking concern that we don't quite have what it takes to finish in the top three. It hurts even typing that!
I'm a little concerned that we have almost never managed an emphatic victory, and our relatively poor goal difference is evidence of that. I fear that may come back to haunt us.
Those defeats to Chesterfield and Grimsby may prove pivotal come the end of the season.
I always take great encouragement from Grant's post-match interviews. I don't think there is a more honest manager in the league, and he never tries to hide from reality regarding our performances.
He is the first to recognise that we regularly fail to kill teams off, and too often end up scraping a win when we could / should have won more comfortably. The first step towards improvement is recognising where the shortcomings are, and Grant gets it.
I keep thinking we will click and blow some team away with a dominant performance and a big win, but it has arguably happened only a couple of times this season.
On the other hand, having said all that, we sit 2nd in the table coming to the end of February and there are many points still to play for. Our recent form is excellent, with 6 League wins wrapped around those two defeats. That bodes well for the run-in if we can keep it up.
It's going to be a white-knuckle ride but we can do it!
Great Post, & we need to stick by Grant come what may. He will get us there.
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Points per game is only relevant once all the games are finished
How is PPG table not relevant now but in your mind the league table right now is relevant ? Making it up as you go along for whatever suits
I spent all last season trying to explain to all you negative folk that the league table is irrelevant until the end of the season
There goes the 'negative' word, bit early that even by your standards. Your post sounds a little condescending too.
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I'd suggest that pretty definitively the PPG table by this time in the season indicates how well we have collected points per game so far this season. And that's not irrelevant. Ever.
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Has anyone checked other League 2 clubs to see if they’re discussing this topic
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Has anyone checked other League 2 clubs to see if they’re discussing this topic
If they're not, there's something wrong or maybe over confident. No doubt many Walsall fans will be looking over their shoulders.
Also interesting to hear 'experts' analysis of League Two after the weekends results.
https://youtu.be/N6yQzvIwCcM?si=qsrOElDV6FFVEhGo
They seem to be more positive about Bradford and maybe Port Vale given the injury problems there. Otherwise, they
suggests it's anyone's race, albeit Walsall have a bit in hand.
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You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....
Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.
So, here's this evening's prediction.
1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65
Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.
88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.
If the third place team gets 88 points I’ll be genuinely amazed.
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The only advantage I can think of from having played more games is that having an extra midweek game might fatigue our rivals more (when you include the travel, where applicable) and also have a knock-on effect on their following Saturday game due to them having fewer rest/preparation days. Could this take away a fraction of the advantage of having games in hand? Might be clutching at straws though as it's all a bit intangible.
FWIW we'll not have to wait long until the games played (mostly) level out....
Tuesday 25th Feb
Bromley v Bradford
Cheltenham v Walsall
Tuesday 11th March
Wimbledon v Cheltenham
Colchester v Port Vale
Grimsby v Notts County
Tuesday 25th March
Port Vale v Barrow
Mostly tough-looking games-in-hand for our promotion rivals on paper, so you never know. Cheltenham are in good form and have a big say, Colchester away is a tricky game-in-hand for Vale, as is Notts County's visit to Grimsby. Bradford have to go to Bromley who are no mugs, and Bradford's away record as previously highlighted is not great (W3, D6, L6).
Maybe someone has already expressed agreement with this and perhaps it is not at all in dispute, but having to play more than a once a week successively is a very salient factor. It weighs significantly on fitness, stamina and the risk of injury and must reduce the effectiveness of a team to have to play twice a week. If the club only have a small squad it is worse.
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You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....
Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.
So, here's this evening's prediction.
1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65
Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.
88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.
If the third place team gets 88 points I’ll be genuinely amazed.
I agree it does seem unfeasibly high. I'm just putting out what the model says. It's not a very sophisticated one, but it has been very close much more often than it's been wildly off the mark.
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It'll be at least 3 points less than 88 like it always is.
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You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....
Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.
So, here's this evening's prediction.
1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65
Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.
88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.
If the third place team gets 88 points I’ll be genuinely amazed.
I agree it does seem unfeasibly high. I'm just putting out what the model says. It's not a very sophisticated one, but it has been very close much more often than it's been wildly off the mark.
Without consistency models are worth nothing!
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I couldn't disagree more.
No model is ever either 100% accurate or consistent in its inaccuracy. The question is, are they useful?
In this case, this really simple model typically gets the final points total for each position right to within a couple of points about 80% of the time.
Some years it is spookily accurate, even when predicting what appears to be very unlikely scenarios.
Might well be wrong this year of course.
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Has anyone checked other League 2 clubs to see if they’re discussing this topic
There's a lot of positivity amongst the Bradford fans, which is understandable, although they've had several false dawns over recent seasons of course. They reckon Alexander has finally got them playing as a team.
A couple of them on their forum are suggesting 82 points will be enough for auto promotion and they are confident they can achieve that.
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I am enjoying this excellent thread. As a person who has spent my life in Operations Research, and including much use of modelling and simulation, I would like to make a few comments – no negativity intended to anyone in any sense.
First with regards to simple data, points-per-game (ppg) is probably the best way of comparing clubs’ performances that have already happened in a season – i.e. I am not talking about any predictions or guides to future performance. That is why ppg was used to adjudicate final positions in the aborted COVID season. It is simple, understandable, and consistent across all clubs. To go any deeper into e.g. current form, ranking of opposition left to play brings more complications and potentially loss of fairness/consistency/transparency.
Then there is a wise old saying in the modelling and simulation community ‘all models are wrong, some are useful.’ Models, by definition, look at a subset of reality. Does that subset contain all the major driving factors? Sometimes it can be good to look in more detail, but also sometimes the possible benefit of adding more factors is not worth the effort required and can confuse more than illuminate.
In this case, IMHO current form can add usefully to simple ppg for predictions. The ranking of opposition left is also possibly useful, but there is the question of whether to be ranked by table position or current form or some combination of both. Deeper analysts might wish to think about player availability (squad size, injuries and possible suspensions – how many players on a high number of yellows, quality of reserve players), past head-to-head data, do teams play well or badly against certain type teams/tactics, but IMHO that falls in the category of more work than benefit. Then there are always the things that can’t be modelled well – sheer luck with referee decisions, run of the ball, the effect of an early goal on teams, weather and playing conditions on the day. In this case, for us supporters, IMHO it is better to have a simple model and update and track it. BST’s model seems to do that, and IMHO is useful.
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I find the ppg very telling .
Despite rovers lge position , all 4 clubs directly below have a better ppg. With the points being so close and with em all having games in hand it’s no surprise I guess.
Wombles, county and Bradford are all on 1.781ppg and PV are on 1.774. Whereas rovers are on 1.757. A win changes the score by around 0.05. So a win v Newport still only puts rovers on very similar ppg as the three teams directly below. A defeat for Bradford tonight will be a big boost. But they will
Then be on exact same ppg as rovers.
The gd has me concerned. It could make a big difference. It could be the diff between auto and playoffs .
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Walsall, Wimbledon, Notts County and us have been the best four teams in L2 since day one. No reason to think that won’t be the top 4 come the end of the season.
i watched the first half of Morecambe v Walsall and Walsall were not the better side - I was keeping an eye on Hull at Sunderland and watched that second half as I lad backed Hull to stay up after those January "proper" signings .
It seems Morecambe had a player sent off after 52 minutes
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/live/c6262egzr4qt
"Two second-half goals gave League Two leaders Walsall victory over a struggling Morecambe side who ended the game with 10 men.
The contest was evenly poised until the 50th minute when Morecambe defender Rhys Williams was sent off for pulling back Jamie Jellis as he looked to run onto a long through ball.
To make matters worse for the home side, the Saddlers took the lead from the resulting free-kick as Taylor Allen curled the ball over the wall and into the goal off the foot of the right-hand post.
Despite being a man down, Morecambe looked to hit back with Marcus Dackers missing a golden chance to equalise when he headed a pinpoint Adam Lewis cross over from close range.
He was made to pay for the miss when Jellis scored a second three minutes from the end when he fired past goalkeeper Harry Burgoyne from the edge of the box.
Morecambe had the better chances of the first half but Lee Angol twice failed to find the target from close range."
now Notts County
-- yes they have Jones - "the old man" etc OUT INJURED
Amazingly Tranmere were much the better side for well over 70 minutes (they recently got a couple of Liverpool loanees)
here i the bbc version which doesn't do Tranmere justice Notts County for some reason were hopeless
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/live/cdryr7jgeg0t
"Late goals from Charlie Whittaker and Alassana Jatta fired promotion-chasing Notts County to a 2-1 win over Tranmere.
Nigel Adkins' side, who saw substitute Kristian Dennis grab a consolation effort, were the better side for long periods.
But they were made to pay for failing to exploit their superiority and remain in deep trouble at the other end of the table.
Despite entering the contest without a win in eight, Rovers carried a threat.
Omari Patrick tested Alex Bass after combining with Jake Garrett before Josh Davison fired over from the edge of the box.
Sam Finley and Chris Merrie were also presented with opportunities to hand Adkins' men the advantage.
Cameron Norman appeared to have done exactly that after meeting a cross by the influential Garrett only for Bass to again intervene.
If Norman could attribute that miss to the County goalkeeper's agility, he had only himself to blame on the stroke of half-time after heading wide from close range.
Whittaker and Jatta punished those misses with clinical 80th and 83rd-minute finishes from Mai Traore assists before Dennis' 88th-minute consolation."
as I keep saying in my world the dangers to us are behind us Bradford and PV
and don't underestimate any of these teams at the bottom Tranmere v Accrington should be "gud un" tonight bare knuckle fight ?
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I am enjoying this excellent thread. As a person who has spent my life in Operations Research, and including much use of modelling and simulation, I would like to make a few comments – no negativity intended to anyone in any sense.
First with regards to simple data, points-per-game (ppg) is probably the best way of comparing clubs’ performances that have already happened in a season – i.e. I am not talking about any predictions or guides to future performance. That is why ppg was used to adjudicate final positions in the aborted COVID season. It is simple, understandable, and consistent across all clubs. To go any deeper into e.g. current form, ranking of opposition left to play brings more complications and potentially loss of fairness/consistency/transparency.
Then there is a wise old saying in the modelling and simulation community ‘all models are wrong, some are useful.’ Models, by definition, look at a subset of reality. Does that subset contain all the major driving factors? Sometimes it can be good to look in more detail, but also sometimes the possible benefit of adding more factors is not worth the effort required and can confuse more than illuminate.
In this case, IMHO current form can add usefully to simple ppg for predictions. The ranking of opposition left is also possibly useful, but there is the question of whether to be ranked by table position or current form or some combination of both. Deeper analysts might wish to think about player availability (squad size, injuries and possible suspensions – how many players on a high number of yellows, quality of reserve players), past head-to-head data, do teams play well or badly against certain type teams/tactics, but IMHO that falls in the category of more work than benefit. Then there are always the things that can’t be modelled well – sheer luck with referee decisions, run of the ball, the effect of an early goal on teams, weather and playing conditions on the day. In this case, for us supporters, IMHO it is better to have a simple model and update and track it. BST’s model seems to do that, and IMHO is useful.
Yes, of course, these exercises are useful and in this case, a bit of fun too.
Whatever model BST is using, then I think the fun comes from the accuracy of the original forecast. If you keep adjusting the forecast, then obviously it's going to be more accurate the nearer we get to completion. But the true accuracy of the model should be measured against that original forecast to determine whether another factor needs to be introduced. For example the percentage of matches that go against form, which as you point out could be for any number of reasons, like injuries, suspensions etc.etc.
As said previously, in the last quarter of the season, there's the fight factor, with clubs somehow finding an extra 10% performance to fight off relegation, fight for the play offs and fight for Automatic which means PPG becomes less of an indicator of where teams are going.
I think this is the reason we all think the 88 pts is too high for 3rd but that said, it's not a million miles away.
Maybe we could add a factor of 5% for 'Squeaky bum time'. Plus 5% on the points projections for those in the relagation zone. And minus 5% for those in the play off/automatic zones? Ha ha.
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We’ve not been great for most of this season. Grimly stacking up points on a consistent basis. Are we in poor form or is this is playing to at or near our ability? Either way we need to start playing more consistently better than we have done for most of this season, to make a really strong case for the automatics. It’s been an odd season.
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I suppose it would be possible to get a reasonably accurate prediction of how many points team positions would finish on if you took a look at the final league table over the last ten years and took an average from that.
So how ever many points the top side ended with each year, added together and then divided by ten.
Then the same again with second, third and fourth places etc.
It might even give a more accurate guess at how the end of season points stacked up.
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I suppose it would be possible to get a reasonably accurate prediction of how many points team positions would finish on if you took a look at the final league table over the last ten years and took an average from that.
So how ever many points the top side ended with each year, added together and then divided by ten.
Then the same again with second, third and fourth places etc.
It might even give a more accurate guess at how the end of season points stacked up.
So, with my above thoughts in mind I did a quick look back over the last eleven seasons, then ignored the covid year and took an average of ten seasons and came up with the following for the top ten placings:
1st. 89 points
2nd. 85 points
3rd. 83 points
4th. 79 points
5th. 76 points
6th. 74 points
7th. 73 points
8th. 70 points
9th. 68 points
10th. 66 points
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To get to 83 the currently third placed side would need 1.85 ppg.
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To get to 83 the currently third placed side would need 1.85 ppg.
….and we need 1.923 ppg.
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I suppose it would be possible to get a reasonably accurate prediction of how many points team positions would finish on if you took a look at the final league table over the last ten years and took an average from that.
So how ever many points the top side ended with each year, added together and then divided by ten.
Then the same again with second, third and fourth places etc.
It might even give a more accurate guess at how the end of season points stacked up.
Have put up the last 43 years stats (since 3 points per win introduced) earlier at reply #136 in this admittedly long thread Hound :thumbsup:
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I suppose it would be possible to get a reasonably accurate prediction of how many points team positions would finish on if you took a look at the final league table over the last ten years and took an average from that.
So how ever many points the top side ended with each year, added together and then divided by ten.
Then the same again with second, third and fourth places etc.
It might even give a more accurate guess at how the end of season points stacked up.
Have put up the last 43 years stats (since 3 points per win introduced) earlier at reply #136 in this admittedly long thread Hound :thumbsup:
Ah, sorry Dutch, I hadn’t noticed that.
Having seen it now it isn’t too far away from what I came up with is it.
I rounded mine up or down on the decimal points whereas you kept yours (with the decimal points included).
No more than a point difference in all places.
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To get to 83 the currently third placed side would need 1.85 ppg.
….and we need 1.923 ppg.
And if Wimbledon draw their game in hand they also would require 1.923ppg. If they lose their game in hand they would need 2ppg. If my Auntie had b*llocks.....
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I find the ppg very telling .
Despite rovers lge position , all 4 clubs directly below have a better ppg. With the points being so close and with em all having games in hand it’s no surprise I guess.
Wombles, county and Bradford are all on 1.781ppg and PV are on 1.774. Whereas rovers are on 1.757. A win changes the score by around 0.05. So a win v Newport still only puts rovers on very similar ppg as the three teams directly below. A defeat for Bradford tonight will be a big boost. But they will
Then be on exact same ppg as rovers.
The gd has me concerned. It could make a big difference. It could be the diff between auto and playoffs .
If Bradford lose tonight they will be on a lower ppg than us at 1.727ppg. If they draw they will be on the same as us.
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To get to 83 the currently third placed side would need 1.85 ppg.
….and we need 1.923 ppg.
And if Wimbledon draw their game in hand they also would require 1.923ppg. If they lose their game in hand they would need 2ppg. If my Auntie had b*llocks.....
Agreed Bessie, and that is why I spoke about watching how things evolve as matches go by.
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No stopping Bradford. That 25 points from the past 10 games since Cook got injured.
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Whereas Walsall have only got 15 points from last 10 games, and we have got 21.
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Whereas Walsall have only got 15 points from last 10 games, and we have got 21.
True. But context. They'd got 52 points from the first 23 games and we'd only got 37.
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No stopping Bradford. That 25 points from the past 10 games since Cook got injured.
Said for years he potentially limits them as a team. Really good striker for the level but possible he’s so much of a focal point that he limits them in other areas. Good case study for individual players being great but a net negative for the team. Ronaldo in his last season at Juve for example.
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Either way we need to start playing more consistently better than we have done for most of this season,
Is winning 6 from 8 not a sign that we have seen an upturn?
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No stopping Bradford. That 25 points from the past 10 games since Cook got injured.
spurs always had better results when kane was injured as well..
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Either way we need to start playing more consistently better than we have done for most of this season,
Is winning 6 from 8 not a sign that we have seen an upturn?
It's an upturn in results certainly. But that was generally a set of matches against really weak sides. We've got a far harder run in that that. If we can win 3/4s of the games we have left, I'll ll be chuffed to bits.
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How realistic is that we can achieve a higher goal difference than 2 of Walsall, Notts, Bradford and Wimbledon?
We need an extra point really.
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Whereas Walsall have only got 15 points from last 10 games, and we have got 21.
True. But context. They'd got 52 points from the first 23 games and we'd only got 37.
Of course which is why they’re so far clear, but since their striker went back to stoke their form has been midtable. Let’s hope it stays like that
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Whereas Walsall have only got 15 points from last 10 games, and we have got 21.
True. But context. They'd got 52 points from the first 23 games and we'd only got 37.
Of course which is why they’re so far clear, but since their striker went back to stoke their form has been midtable. Let’s hope it stays like that
If they keep on picking up 1.5 ppg, Walsall will end up with 87 points.
Given goal difference, to top that we'd need 2.3 ppg from now to the end of the season. That'd mean we'd have picked up 51 points in the 2nd half of the season
Might change, but I've seen nothing this season to suggest we are remotely that good.
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I think our run in is a difficult one. Lots of top half teams.
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Bookies now have us 5th favourites for promotion
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Brilliant result for Bradford last night. On current form they will take some stopping and could win the whole thing if they find consistency away from home.
Looking at all the analysis I'm going to predict we'll need something in between BST's model and the "PPG extrapolated to the end of the season" model, given the form of us and the sides we're battling with, so something around 82-84 points.
24-26 points from 13 games required, so near enough title form. 8 wins from 13, or 7 wins and a fair few draws. A big ask no doubt, but not beyond the realms of possibility. It will require a decent uplift vs season-to-date PPG performance though.
Some points will be more equal than others though. If three of those wins come against Wimbledon, Bradford and Notts County, we'll have a much better chance than if they're picked up in other games but we drop points against those three. They're massive games.
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Whereas Walsall have only got 15 points from last 10 games, and we have got 21.
True. But context. They'd got 52 points from the first 23 games and we'd only got 37.
Of course which is why they’re so far clear, but since their striker went back to stoke their form has been midtable. Let’s hope it stays like that
If they keep on picking up 1.5 ppg, Walsall will end up with 87 points.
Given goal difference, to top that we'd need 2.3 ppg from now to the end of the season. That'd mean we'd have picked up 51 points in the 2nd half of the season
Might change, but I've seen nothing this season to suggest we are remotely that good.
“but I've seen nothing this season to suggest we are remotely that good”
How many times did you say this last season though Billy?
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Whereas Walsall have only got 15 points from last 10 games, and we have got 21.
True. But context. They'd got 52 points from the first 23 games and we'd only got 37.
Of course which is why they’re so far clear, but since their striker went back to stoke their form has been midtable. Let’s hope it stays like that
If they keep on picking up 1.5 ppg, Walsall will end up with 87 points.
Given goal difference, to top that we'd need 2.3 ppg from now to the end of the season. That'd mean we'd have picked up 51 points in the 2nd half of the season
Might change, but I've seen nothing this season to suggest we are remotely that good.
“but I've seen nothing this season to suggest we are remotely that good”
How many times did you say this last season though Billy?
It’s not last season, is it dickos ffs. He’s making a comment based on THIS season’s performances. You can understand that, can’t you?
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One thing for sure, looks like it’s gonna be an exciting end to the season, come on rovers let’s go on another good run.
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Also the games in hand aren’t taken for several weeks yet I see. That’s going to be an added uncertainty.
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Whereas Walsall have only got 15 points from last 10 games, and we have got 21.
True. But context. They'd got 52 points from the first 23 games and we'd only got 37.
Of course which is why they’re so far clear, but since their striker went back to stoke their form has been midtable. Let’s hope it stays like that
If they keep on picking up 1.5 ppg, Walsall will end up with 87 points.
Given goal difference, to top that we'd need 2.3 ppg from now to the end of the season. That'd mean we'd have picked up 51 points in the 2nd half of the season
Might change, but I've seen nothing this season to suggest we are remotely that good.
“but I've seen nothing this season to suggest we are remotely that good”
How many times did you say this last season though Billy?
It’s not last season, is it dickos ffs. He’s making a comment based on THIS season’s performances. You can understand that, can’t you?
And last seasons performances were far worse but we all saw what happened.
Just pointing out that things change, teams improve, teams drop off as Crewe did last season. That kind of thing happens every season, you can understand that can’t you?
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Yes Dickos, but you cannot EXPECT that to happen. Last season was a once a century turn round. We ALL want that to happen, but on average, any team is as likely to have worse form in the run in as they are to have better form.
In 22/23, at this time of the season, you were saying that if we improved we could still make the playoffs. We didn't. We got much worse. That's the balance.
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The thing is we’ve not looked like building any sustained momentum. Yes, we’ve picked up points but we’ve never looked anything like that team that put that run together at the end of last season.
If I had a £1 for every time someone on here wrote ‘when it clicks’, I’d be well on the way to paying for next season’s ticket!
Fingers are crossed for a strong finish but I can’t see it………..yet.
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The thing is we’ve not looked like building any sustained momentum. Yes, we’ve picked up points but we’ve never looked anything like that team that put that run together at the end of last season.
If I had a £1 for every time someone on here wrote ‘when it clicks’, I’d be well on the way to paying for next season’s ticket!
Fingers are crossed for a strong finish but I can’t see it………..yet.
We've won 7 of the last 10 Alan. 2nd only to Bradford.
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The thing is we’ve not looked like building any sustained momentum. Yes, we’ve picked up points but we’ve never looked anything like that team that put that run together at the end of last season.
If I had a £1 for every time someone on here wrote ‘when it clicks’, I’d be well on the way to paying for next season’s ticket!
Fingers are crossed for a strong finish but I can’t see it………..yet.
We've won 7 of the last 10 Alan. 2nd only to Bradford.
And that's great
But every one of those was against sides outside the top 10 when we played them.
We haven't beaten a side in the top 10 in over 4 months. In fact we haven't taken a point off a side in the top 10 since mid-Nov. And 7 of our last 13 games are against sides currently in the top 10.
It's bleeding obvious that we have to improve significantly to make the top 3. Not just a little improvement and a bit of luck here and there.
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The thing is we’ve not looked like building any sustained momentum. Yes, we’ve picked up points but we’ve never looked anything like that team that put that run together at the end of last season.
If I had a £1 for every time someone on here wrote ‘when it clicks’, I’d be well on the way to paying for next season’s ticket!
Fingers are crossed for a strong finish but I can’t see it………..yet.
We've won 7 of the last 10 Alan. 2nd only to Bradford.
And that's great
But every one of those was against sides outside the top 10 when we played them.
We haven't beaten a side in the top 10 in over 4 months. In fact we haven't taken a point off a side in the top 10 since mid-Nov. And 7 of our last 13 games are against sides currently in the top 10.
It's bleeding obvious that we have to improve significantly to make the top 3. Not just a little improvement and a bit of luck here and there.
See this is what worries me when I look at our remaining fixtures. It makes games like today even more important to bag the 3 points, whilst hoping that one or more of the others slips up.
Based on our recent home performances though, I wouldn’t be surprised to see us drop 2 points today.
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In some respects, this is among the most important games of the season. We are now in March, on the run in, know the task ahead. We are playing an opponent that has injury and suspension issues. It's a game that any promotion hunting side should be looking forward to optimistically. If we can't get up for this game and find a way to win, you do wonder what we can pull out of the bag for the remainder of the season.
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The thing is we’ve not looked like building any sustained momentum. Yes, we’ve picked up points but we’ve never looked anything like that team that put that run together at the end of last season.
If I had a £1 for every time someone on here wrote ‘when it clicks’, I’d be well on the way to paying for next season’s ticket!
Fingers are crossed for a strong finish but I can’t see it………..yet.
We've won 7 of the last 10 Alan. 2nd only to Bradford.
And that's great
But every one of those was against sides outside the top 10 when we played them.
We haven't beaten a side in the top 10 in over 4 months. In fact we haven't taken a point off a side in the top 10 since mid-Nov. And 7 of our last 13 games are against sides currently in the top 10.
It's bleeding obvious that we have to improve significantly to make the top 3. Not just a little improvement and a bit of luck here and there.
I was responding to Alan's point that we don't have momentum. 7 from 10 is by most measures, momentum. It's hard to change who you play - it's a fixed variable.
As for making predictions about what's going to happen from now until the end of the season, I think the odds of several scenarios happening are barely distinguishable from each other currently, and a knats cock of variance is going to change the picture week by week. I certainly don't know how you've come to the conclusion that we need 'significant improvements' for automatic. For me, it's reasonably conceivable we could actually play slightly worse and still get promoted.
A lot of over-analysis going on.
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We need more performances & results at home like Accrington & Tranmere & no more performances & results like Bromley & Grimsby.
It has to start today, the first day of March. We’re now into ‘the run in’ where the teams who finish in the automatic places deserve to be there.
We concentrate on winning, not drawing, winning every game we play from now until May.
Analysing the fixtures won’t win us them. Playing them to the very best of our abilities might.
I shall be concentrating on the latter.
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Sarcevic off injured for Bradford
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Sarcevic off injured for Bradford
some other Bradford player off injured as well --- not watching that match but he is Mr Bradford just as George Byas is Mr POrt Vale
just backed bradford at 12/1 to win this match !!
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Salford one up. Adelakun with the assist.
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Port Vale struggled to a 1-1 with Tranmere. Bradford got last minute winner at Salford. That’s a bit unfortunate.
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Sarcevic off injured for Bradford
some other Bradford player off injured as well --- not watching that match but he is Mr Bradford just as George Byas is Mr POrt Vale
just backed bradford at 12/1 to win this match !!
Guess who backed a 12/1 winner backed Bradford when they were 1-0 down :scarf: :scarf: :scarf: :scarf:
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Port Vale struggled to a 1-1 with Tranmere. Bradford got last minute winner at Salford. That’s a bit unfortunate.
Is it? I looked at it more like two of the chasing pack (Salford and Vale) dropped points.
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Looking forward to the update
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If today told u anything then it told u that anyone can take points from anyone. So to keep spouting the narrative about only playing teams in the bottom half etc etc is just nonsense
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You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....
Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.
So, here's this evening's prediction.
1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65
Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.
88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.
Update
1st place: 90 93
2nd 89 90
3rd 88 88
4th 85 83
5th 85 81
6th 82 79
7th 75 74
8th 70 72
9th 69 71
10th 65 67
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For what it's worth, I really cannot believe those top three points totals will all come to pass. They are based on the fact that the three sides in positions 2-4 currently all have an excellent ppg over the last 10 games (Bradford 2.5, us 2.4, Notts C 2.3). I'll be amazed if all three clubs maintain that to the end of the season.
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City play Notts County two games before they play us so somebody will be dropping points in those games.
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The statistical points projection has slightly condensed after yesterday.
1. Walsall 89.95
2. Bradford 85.04
3. Port Vale 81.63
4. Wimbledon 81.44
5. Rovers 80.68
6. Notts Co 78.96
7. Grimsby 72.85
A team on the march at the mo (other than Bradford) is Swindon on 44 points, currently projected to get 61.06 pts, but worth remembering we were on a mere 39 points at the same stage last season. Our match up with them at home next week will also be a good marker.
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Yeah most have Port Vale, Notts County, Rovers and Wimbledon within a point or two. Crazy tight.
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The statistical points projection has slightly condensed after yesterday.
1. Walsall 89.95
2. Bradford 85.04
3. Port Vale 81.63
4. Wimbledon 81.44
5. Rovers 80.68
6. Notts Co 78.96
7. Grimsby 72.85
A team on the march at the mo (other than Bradford) is Swindon on 44 points, currently projected to get 61.06 pts, but worth remembering we were on a mere 39 points at the same stage last season. Our match up with them at home next week will also be a good marker.
No way in a million years are Walsall getting 23 points from their final 12 games.
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The statistical points projection has slightly condensed after yesterday.
1. Walsall 89.95
2. Bradford 85.04
3. Port Vale 81.63
4. Wimbledon 81.44
5. Rovers 80.68
6. Notts Co 78.96
7. Grimsby 72.85
A team on the march at the mo (other than Bradford) is Swindon on 44 points, currently projected to get 61.06 pts, but worth remembering we were on a mere 39 points at the same stage last season. Our match up with them at home next week will also be a good marker.
No way in a million years are Walsall getting 23 points from their final 12 games.
Unlikely, but what were we saying this time last season? Funny old game.
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The only time we will know for certain how many points every team will get is after the last match of the season.
The predictor thing will get more accurate as games go by, which is expected of course.
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Based on recent performances we can say that it has clicked now. Which means we should be good for 85 points, that would surely be enough.
Alan Southstand, please put my pound on the slate.
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The only time we will know for certain how many points every team will get is after the last match of the season.
The predictor thing will get more accurate as games go by, which is expected of course.
B*GGER this "pointless "but "bonding" thread .The most important match of the season is tomorrow night and you all don't know which match it is
it's Lazarus Carlisle v Riderless Walsall ( the saddle slipped many weeks ago)
If Carlisle can win this then the 3 instant promotion places without any doubt do open up like the parting of the Red Sea as well mannered Walsall stand aside. and be "pulled up" lame - the other 5 of us Bradford Rovers Notts County PV & Wimbledon are going to collect points - nearly all wins -in fact we have the hardest match on Tuesday
Rachel might not know what 5 into 3 places is but it is a lot better than 5 into 2 places.
AND Remember when doing your top of the tree calculations Walsall have played 18 home (meaning they have 5 at home to play and 7 away )
and only 16 away ... whilst PV have played only 15 home and 17 away which is easily forgotten
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The most important game is ours, always is, end of.
If Rachel is who I think I you mean, please leave politics to the other board?
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The only time we will know for certain how many points every team will get is after the last match of the season.
The predictor thing will get more accurate as games go by, which is expected of course.
B*GGER this "pointless "but "bonding" thread .The most important match of the season is tomorrow night and you all don't know which match it is
it's Lazarus Carlisle v Riderless Walsall ( the saddle slipped many weeks ago)
If Carlisle can win this then the 3 instant promotion places without any doubt do open up like the parting of the Red Sea as well mannered Walsall stand aside. and be "pulled up" lame - the other 5 of us Bradford Rovers Notts County PV & Wimbledon are going to collect points - nearly all wins -in fact we have the hardest match on Tuesday
Rachel might not know what 5 into 3 places is but it is a lot better than 5 into 2 places.
AND Remember when doing your top of the tree calculations Walsall have played 18 home (meaning they have 5 at home to play and 7 away )
and only 16 away ... whilst PV have played only 15 home and 17 away which is easily forgotten
Did a cuckoo just fly over?
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The most important game is ours, always is, end of.
If Rachel is who I think I you mean, please leave politics to the other board?
the well used phrase "You must be fun at parties " deserves another outing
Perhaps your "Labour of Love" ? :suicide:
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The most important game is ours, always is, end of.
If Rachel is who I think I you mean, please leave politics to the other board?
the well used phrase "You must be fun at parties " deserves another outing
Perhaps your "Labour of Love" ? :suicide:
Order, order….
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The most important game is ours, always is, end of.
If Rachel is who I think I you mean, please leave politics to the other board?
the well used phrase "You must be fun at parties " deserves another outing
Perhaps your "Labour of Love" ? :suicide:
Grow up.
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Bit late for that, IDM
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Back on topic, let's see how this prediction looks after tonight's games.
My gut is the points required for each position will drop slightly.
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Back on topic, let's see how this prediction looks after tonight's games.
My gut is the points required for each position will drop slightly.
Any reason why in particular? I think on balance, our direct competitors for third probably have easier games tonight than we do. You can never been certain in football, but I’d be surprised if many of them (Walsall, AFC, Bradford, county, vale) drop points tonight.
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Not really, I can just see points being dropped..
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Hope you are right and that we can put another performance in to take home 3 points.
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For all the dominance of possession tonight, that's yet another defeat against a top 10 side.
It's now 128 days since we beat a side in the top 10, and 107 days since we took a point off one.
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Tonight’s dominance had nothing to do with possession, it was dominant in every way other than the most important bit.
Keep playing like that and we will get the 2 points a game and comfortably finish in the top 3, and I’ll win our bet
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The points predictor will have decreased after tonight’s results then I assume.
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Tonight’s dominance had nothing to do with possession, it was dominant in every way other than the most important bit.
Keep playing like that and we will get the 2 points a game and comfortably finish in the top 3, and I’ll win our bet
So that’s seven wins in the last eleven games, making it 21 points from them.
One short of two points per game.
Just one point short of target.
After our recent change to a more direct style of play we have upped our points gathering and as Dickos says, keep that up and we should get promoted.
-
Walsall 87
Bradford 85
Port Vale 79
Rovers 79
Wimbledon 78
Anything can happen and probably will. Big game Saturday.
-
You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....
Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.
So, here's this evening's prediction.
1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65
Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.
88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.
But we’re currently 2nd, if we average 2 points a game then we will finish in the top 3,
Last 10 games were averaging 2.1and last 20 were averaging 1.9.
So the form we’re in and have been for 20 games now would be border line good enough, a light improvement and we’re there
I'll have a bet with you.
If we average 2 points a game from here on in, we'll not finish in the top 4.
£20 to a charity of your choice.
Are you still confident 84 points wouldn’t get us 4th place billy?
-
Walsall 87
Bradford 85
Port Vale 79
Rovers 79
Wimbledon 78
Anything can happen and probably will. Big game Saturday.
Sorry, just to clarify, that's the statistical points projection based on PPG taking into account remaining opponents PPG.
-
Not taking any points from the chesterfield and Grimsby games could have really shafted us.
Bad week for us that. I think we’d need to produce something really special from here on in to make the top 3, or hope the teams around us have a massive wobble.
We are under strength upfront in comparison to last season . It’s been a lot poor displays at home and this has been the most frustrating part . With exception of Bromley away , every game we’ve lost so far were fair result and we’ve showed we can compete in games but seldom have we took teams to the cleaners. IMO there’s still plenty to play for but unless Ironside and Sharp suddenly start banging the goals in , it’s looking the play offs again and this time it’s all our own doing by not sorting the where the goals are coming from sooner . Let’s hope we don’t meet Bromely again along the way :chair:
-
Scoring goals isn’t an issue though, we’re the 3rd highest scorers in the league. Tonight it was obviously, but over the season so far scoring goals hasn’t been our issue
-
Our problem is how easy we are to score against. We are underperforming XGA by 11. TSL statistically is the second worst keeper in the league.
-
Our problem is how easy we are to score against. We are underperforming XGA by 11. TSL statistically is the second worst keeper in the league.
Statistically and actually.
He was on loan at Bromley last yr and their first choice kept him down to 1 performance. Their keeper made 7 saves tonight for a clean sheet, ours made none for a 1.0 loss.
Been saying it for months.
He is not a good keeper.
-
Basically a shot on target against us is a goal. His save percentage figures are dreadful.
-
Basically a shot on target against us is a goal. His save percentage figures are dreadful.
Totally agree
-
The only time we will know for certain how many points every team will get is after the last match of the season.
The predictor thing will get more accurate as games go by, which is expected of course.
B*GGER this "pointless "but "bonding" thread .The most important match of the season is tomorrow night and you all don't know which match it is
it's Lazarus Carlisle v Riderless Walsall ( the saddle slipped many weeks ago)
If Carlisle can win this then the 3 instant promotion places without any doubt do open up like the parting of the Red Sea as well mannered Walsall stand aside. and be "pulled up" lame - the other 5 of us Bradford Rovers Notts County PV & Wimbledon are going to collect points - nearly all wins -in fact we have the hardest match on Tuesday
Rachel might not know what 5 into 3 places is but it is a lot better than 5 into 2 places.
AND Remember when doing your top of the tree calculations Walsall have played 18 home (meaning they have 5 at home to play and 7 away )
and only 16 away ... whilst PV have played only 15 home and 17 away which is easily forgotten
the bloke on Sky sports was saying that TOP Walsall failing to beat BOTTOM Carlisle was a shock - as I said the most important match was the Carlisle match
from Walsall's point of view they lost 2 points to Bradford gained 1 point on ROvers Notts County & Wimbledon and stayed the same with P Vale - Technically they strengthened their Promotion chance BUT THEY ARE TOTALLY OUT OF FORM - THEY GOT OFF VERY LIGHTLY LAST NIGHT -
TO REPEAT everyone bar Bradford can argue they got off lightly. And Bradford made "Quantum Progress - We had 6 matches 1 winner 2 draws and 3 very unlikely defeats consequently filling the bookies satchels.
It was ironic that as the these matches were concluding over in New York just after 9p.m GMT .. The worlds biggest bookmaker which is British in inverted commas was announcing it's 2024 full year results --
Ladbrokes/Corals owners report Thursday
-
Our problem is how easy we are to score against. We are underperforming XGA by 11. TSL statistically is the second worst keeper in the league.
Shhh you're not allowed to criticise TSL.
He wasn't the issue last night though.
Our xGA is currently 3rd lowest (which is a compliment to our defence), and it's very close between those 3, Wimbledon were the best by a distance but they've turned average recently. Wouldn't be surprised if we had the lowest xGA by the end of the season. However, then to actually have a mid table goals conceded record is alarming.
We're third for xG over the season too. For xPoints we're 2nd and we could potentially end up 1st with how Walsall are going. Bradford have been over performing their numbers.
-
Our problem is how easy we are to score against. We are underperforming XGA by 11. TSL statistically is the second worst keeper in the league.
In terms of shot stopping, one aspect of being a goalkeeper.
Everything else he’s better than most in this league.
Think of the howlers we’ve seen from other keepers this year.
-
Our problem is how easy we are to score against. We are underperforming XGA by 11. TSL statistically is the second worst keeper in the league.
In terms of shot stopping, one aspect of being a goalkeeper.
Everything else he’s better than most in this league.
Think of the howlers we’ve seen from other keepers this year.
He's better than we've had recently in the air, his kicking is alright but if he concedes easier shots than most from 12 yards out then that's a worry and will cost us points... It's the same as having a keeper in who's shit in the air and being targeted for it.
-
Our problem is how easy we are to score against. We are underperforming XGA by 11. TSL statistically is the second worst keeper in the league.
In terms of shot stopping, one aspect of being a goalkeeper.
Everything else he’s better than most in this league.
Think of the howlers we’ve seen from other keepers this year.
He's better than we've had recently in the air, his kicking is alright but if he concedes easier shots than most from 12 yards out then that's a worry and will cost us points... It's the same as having a keeper in who's shit in the air and being targeted for it.
talking of goalkeepers
https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=292060.0
Managers can be very colour blind regarding goalkeepers abilities --
when Clough was manager at Sheff United he kept playing a young goalkeeper called George Long who made continual mistakes and I kept telling people he was hopeless but the manager(s) couldn't see it - took him 100 games to get rid
i think his father wrote his wikipedia page
-
Our problem is how easy we are to score against. We are underperforming XGA by 11. TSL statistically is the second worst keeper in the league.
In terms of shot stopping, one aspect of being a goalkeeper.
Everything else he’s better than most in this league.
Think of the howlers we’ve seen from other keepers this year.
He's better than we've had recently in the air, his kicking is alright but if he concedes easier shots than most from 12 yards out then that's a worry and will cost us points... It's the same as having a keeper in who's shit in the air and being targeted for it.
talking of goalkeepers
https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=292060.0
Managers can be very colour blind regarding goalkeepers abilities --
when Clough was manager at Sheff United he kept playing a young goalkeeper called George Long who made continual mistakes and I kept telling people he was hopeless but the manager(s) couldn't see it - took him 100 games to get rid
i think his father wrote his wikipedia page
You are Brian the Blade and I claim my £5
-
Not really, I can just see points being dropped..
Bump.!
-
Our problem is how easy we are to score against. We are underperforming XGA by 11. TSL statistically is the second worst keeper in the league.
Shhh you're not allowed to criticise TSL.
He wasn't the issue last night though.
Our xGA is currently 3rd lowest (which is a compliment to our defence), and it's very close between those 3, Wimbledon were the best by a distance but they've turned average recently. Wouldn't be surprised if we had the lowest xGA by the end of the season. However, then to actually have a mid table goals conceded record is alarming.
We're third for xG over the season too. For xPoints we're 2nd and we could potentially end up 1st with how Walsall are going. Bradford have been over performing their numbers.
xG and xGA etc in depth is all too much for us mere mortals - doesn’t change the result..
Mind you, I expect Swindon to turn up with their xTC perhaps..??
-
You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....
Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.
So, here's this evening's prediction.
1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65
Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.
88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.
But we’re currently 2nd, if we average 2 points a game then we will finish in the top 3,
Last 10 games were averaging 2.1and last 20 were averaging 1.9.
So the form we’re in and have been for 20 games now would be border line good enough, a light improvement and we’re there
I'll have a bet with you.
If we average 2 points a game from here on in, we'll not finish in the top 4.
£20 to a charity of your choice.
This is looking like being significantly wide of the mark. Are you still confident that 84 points won’t make 4th place?
-
The winner likely to get around 84/85 points now.
-
Yep.
Haven't updated the model but it's clear those initial predictions are going to be big overestimates.
-
You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....
Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.
So, here's this evening's prediction.
1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65
Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.
88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.
But we’re currently 2nd, if we average 2 points a game then we will finish in the top 3,
Last 10 games were averaging 2.1and last 20 were averaging 1.9.
So the form we’re in and have been for 20 games now would be border line good enough, a light improvement and we’re there
I'll have a bet with you.
If we average 2 points a game from here on in, we'll not finish in the top 4.
£20 to a charity of your choice.
This is looking like being significantly wide of the mark. Are you still confident that 84 points won’t make 4th place?
Shame you didn't take that bet when I offered it, eh?
For what it's worth, I'm still happy to honour it. Let me know the charity.
-
You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....
Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.
So, here's this evening's prediction.
1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65
Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.
88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.
But we’re currently 2nd, if we average 2 points a game then we will finish in the top 3,
Last 10 games were averaging 2.1and last 20 were averaging 1.9.
So the form we’re in and have been for 20 games now would be border line good enough, a light improvement and we’re there
I'll have a bet with you.
If we average 2 points a game from here on in, we'll not finish in the top 4.
£20 to a charity of your choice.
This is looking like being significantly wide of the mark. Are you still confident that 84 points won’t make 4th place?
Shame you didn't take that bet when I offered it, eh?
For what it's worth, I'm still happy to honour it. Let me know the charity.
And while you're raising that point Dickos, I'd have a lot more respect for you if you'd put your hand up yourself and accept that the numbers you quoted in that particular exchange were hopelessly wrong.
But I guess that would be asking a lot of you.
-
You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....
Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.
So, here's this evening's prediction.
1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65
Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.
88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.
But we’re currently 2nd, if we average 2 points a game then we will finish in the top 3,
Last 10 games were averaging 2.1and last 20 were averaging 1.9.
So the form we’re in and have been for 20 games now would be border line good enough, a light improvement and we’re there
I'll have a bet with you.
If we average 2 points a game from here on in, we'll not finish in the top 4.
£20 to a charity of your choice.
This is looking like being significantly wide of the mark. Are you still confident that 84 points won’t make 4th place?
Shame you didn't take that bet when I offered it, eh?
For what it's worth, I'm still happy to honour it. Let me know the charity.
Whilst I don’t really want to defend dickos, it looked to me like he did accept the bet when he immediately replied with “Ok!…”
That’s how I read it, anyway.
-
You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....
Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.
So, here's this evening's prediction.
1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65
Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.
88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.
But we’re currently 2nd, if we average 2 points a game then we will finish in the top 3,
Last 10 games were averaging 2.1and last 20 were averaging 1.9.
So the form we’re in and have been for 20 games now would be border line good enough, a light improvement and we’re there
I'll have a bet with you.
If we average 2 points a game from here on in, we'll not finish in the top 4.
£20 to a charity of your choice.
This is looking like being significantly wide of the mark. Are you still confident that 84 points won’t make 4th place?
Shame you didn't take that bet when I offered it, eh?
For what it's worth, I'm still happy to honour it. Let me know the charity.
Whilst I don’t really want to defend dickos, it looked to me like he did accept the bet when he immediately replied with “Ok!…”
That’s how I read it, anyway.
Yep I'll accept that. Apologies for missing it.
-
You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....
Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.
So, here's this evening's prediction.
1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65
Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.
88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.
But we’re currently 2nd, if we average 2 points a game then we will finish in the top 3,
Last 10 games were averaging 2.1and last 20 were averaging 1.9.
So the form we’re in and have been for 20 games now would be border line good enough, a light improvement and we’re there
I'll have a bet with you.
If we average 2 points a game from here on in, we'll not finish in the top 4.
£20 to a charity of your choice.
This is looking like being significantly wide of the mark. Are you still confident that 84 points won’t make 4th place?
Shame you didn't take that bet when I offered it, eh?
For what it's worth, I'm still happy to honour it. Let me know the charity.
And while you're raising that point Dickos, I'd have a lot more respect for you if you'd put your hand up yourself and accept that the numbers you quoted in that particular exchange were hopelessly wrong.
But I guess that would be asking a lot of you.
Which numbers were hopelessly wrong Billy?
-
You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....
Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.
So, here's this evening's prediction.
1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65
Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.
88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.
But we’re currently 2nd, if we average 2 points a game then we will finish in the top 3,
Last 10 games were averaging 2.1and last 20 were averaging 1.9.
So the form we’re in and have been for 20 games now would be border line good enough, a light improvement and we’re there
I'll have a bet with you.
If we average 2 points a game from here on in, we'll not finish in the top 4.
£20 to a charity of your choice.
This is looking like being significantly wide of the mark. Are you still confident that 84 points won’t make 4th place?
Shame you didn't take that bet when I offered it, eh?
For what it's worth, I'm still happy to honour it. Let me know the charity.
Bowel cancer U.K. please
Cheers
-
You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....
Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.
So, here's this evening's prediction.
1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65
Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.
88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.
But we’re currently 2nd, if we average 2 points a game then we will finish in the top 3,
Last 10 games were averaging 2.1and last 20 were averaging 1.9.
So the form we’re in and have been for 20 games now would be border line good enough, a light improvement and we’re there
I'll have a bet with you.
If we average 2 points a game from here on in, we'll not finish in the top 4.
£20 to a charity of your choice.
This is looking like being significantly wide of the mark. Are you still confident that 84 points won’t make 4th place?
Shame you didn't take that bet when I offered it, eh?
For what it's worth, I'm still happy to honour it. Let me know the charity.
And while you're raising that point Dickos, I'd have a lot more respect for you if you'd put your hand up yourself and accept that the numbers you quoted in that particular exchange were hopelessly wrong.
But I guess that would be asking a lot of you.
Which numbers were hopelessly wrong Billy?
You saying we'd averaged 1.9 ppg for the previous 20 games when the actual number was 1.75.
-
You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....
Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.
So, here's this evening's prediction.
1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65
Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.
88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.
But we’re currently 2nd, if we average 2 points a game then we will finish in the top 3,
Last 10 games were averaging 2.1and last 20 were averaging 1.9.
So the form we’re in and have been for 20 games now would be border line good enough, a light improvement and we’re there
I'll have a bet with you.
If we average 2 points a game from here on in, we'll not finish in the top 4.
£20 to a charity of your choice.
This is looking like being significantly wide of the mark. Are you still confident that 84 points won’t make 4th place?
Shame you didn't take that bet when I offered it, eh?
For what it's worth, I'm still happy to honour it. Let me know the charity.
Bowel cancer U.K. please
Cheers
Will do when the season ends.
-
You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....
Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.
So, here's this evening's prediction.
1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65
Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.
88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.
But we’re currently 2nd, if we average 2 points a game then we will finish in the top 3,
Last 10 games were averaging 2.1and last 20 were averaging 1.9.
So the form we’re in and have been for 20 games now would be border line good enough, a light improvement and we’re there
Highlighted text is factually wrong.
We've averaged 1.75 ppg over the past 20 games. That isn't remotely close to the level likely to be needed to achieve a top 3 position this year.
I'll stick my neck out and say a side that averages 1.75ppg for the season this year might JUST squeak 6th place.
Correct me if I’m wrong but the first of 20 games was Bradford away, we’ve gained 38 points in those 20 games which equates to 1.9 points per game
I did say at the time I could be wrong and asked you to correct me!
-
You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....
Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.
So, here's this evening's prediction.
1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65
Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.
88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.
But we’re currently 2nd, if we average 2 points a game then we will finish in the top 3,
Last 10 games were averaging 2.1and last 20 were averaging 1.9.
So the form we’re in and have been for 20 games now would be border line good enough, a light improvement and we’re there
Highlighted text is factually wrong.
We've averaged 1.75 ppg over the past 20 games. That isn't remotely close to the level likely to be needed to achieve a top 3 position this year.
I'll stick my neck out and say a side that averages 1.75ppg for the season this year might JUST squeak 6th place.
Correct me if I’m wrong but the first of 20 games was Bradford away, we’ve gained 38 points in those 20 games which equates to 1.9 points per game
I did say at the time I could be wrong and asked you to correct me!
I had already corrected you.
You restated the wrong number.
I corrected you again.
You didn't reply.
I've got many talents but mind reading whether folk accept facts when they don't say whether they do or not ain't one of them.
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Another round of fixtures where we've dropped points, but the damage could've been worse in terms of other results. Wimbledon winning wasn't ideal, but at least it was against another contender. The slight worry is Grimsby - might be a tall order but they're only six points off us with a game in hand, which is against Notts County, so it'd propel them into contention if they win that, with the form they're in.
SoccerStats 'relative form', which measures last 8 PPG vs season-to-date PPG, shows we've dropped below our season-average PPG in the last 8 games by 5% - 1.63 PPG in the last 8. Wimbledon and Notts are also down by 12% and 17% respectively though. I'm sure this will be reflected in BST's model with a drop off in expected points tallies for 3rd-5th.
Statistically our run-in is the 2nd toughest of the top 6, slightly - average PPG of remaining opponents 1.44 (Notts County's is 1.45). Wimbledon and PV have statistically easier runs, so could they string some form together? 3 of Vale's next 4 are at home against MK, Morecambe and Barrow, who have all averaged well under 1 point per game away from home over the season.
Their projected points table is now as follows:
Walsall: 85.57
Bradford: 83.13
Wimbledon: 80.13
Port Vale: 79.14
Rovers: 77.77
Notts: 74.62
Grimsby: 74.13
The games will level out tomorrow (except Port Vale), but as ever it's looking monumentally close, with a bit of an uptick needed from Rovers. Difficult to stress how important those home games against Wimbledon and Walsall will be, and probably Bradford as well.
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Hmm, so 4 wins and a draw for the play offs. Six wins and a draw for auto?
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Another round of fixtures where we've dropped points, but the damage could've been worse in terms of other results. Wimbledon winning wasn't ideal, but at least it was against another contender. The slight worry is Grimsby - might be a tall order but they're only six points off us with a game in hand, which is against Notts County, so it'd propel them into contention if they win that, with the form they're in.
SoccerStats 'relative form', which measures last 8 PPG vs season-to-date PPG, shows we've dropped below our season-average PPG in the last 8 games by 5% - 1.63 PPG in the last 8. Wimbledon and Notts are also down by 12% and 17% respectively though. I'm sure this will be reflected in BST's model with a drop off in expected points tallies for 3rd-5th.
Statistically our run-in is the 2nd toughest of the top 6, slightly - average PPG of remaining opponents 1.44 (Notts County's is 1.45). Wimbledon and PV have statistically easier runs, so could they string some form together? 3 of Vale's next 4 are at home against MK, Morecambe and Barrow, who have all averaged well under 1 point per game away from home over the season.
Their projected points table is now as follows:
Walsall: 85.57
Bradford: 83.13
Wimbledon: 80.13
Port Vale: 79.14
Rovers: 77.77
Notts: 74.62
Grimsby: 74.13
The games will level out tomorrow (except Port Vale), but as ever it's looking monumentally close, with a bit of an uptick needed from Rovers. Difficult to stress how important those home games against Wimbledon and Walsall will be, and probably Bradford as well.
It should be also noted that some of the so called easier games are against teams that are fighting for their league status and they will
inevitably up their performance levels, in effect making themselves harder to beat.
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Absolutely hound. I was looking at the last 10 fixtures earlier, and whilst I’m sure we’ll win some of them, it’s so unpredictable where those wins will come from. Tranmere seem to have improved since getting rid of Adkins and Carlisle seem to be harder to beat now under Mark Hughes.
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I think Port Vale and Notts will lose tomorrow night.
Neither are that good.
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I think Port Vale and Notts will lose tomorrow night.
Neither are that good.
Remarkably it would be the first league game in 2025 that Port Vale have lost. They’re unbeaten in 11 since the turn of the year. Although 6 of those have been draws.
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According to my meagre arithmetic skills as things stand now based on form over the last 10 games we will finish 2nd behind Bradford City, Notts County will be 3rd and Wimbledon could finish in 4th in front of Walsall.
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I know form counts in the BST stock market, but I'd be v surprised with Walsall finishing that poorly. For sure it's setting up for an epic arse squeaking finish, all positions up for grabs.
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Oooh I’m getting a ‘little Fatty ‘on thinking about what’s to come!
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Any update on the final points needed for top 3?..
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I know form counts in the BST stock market, but I'd be v surprised with Walsall finishing that poorly. For sure it's setting up for an epic arse squeaking finish, all positions up for grabs.
To be fair, and he’s said this many times, his model doesn’t predict where or with what points individual teams will finish. It indicates likely totals for each league position.
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It might be a bit more clear after Tuesday night’s games. Rovers v Walsall and Bradford City v Port Vale means some or all will drop points.A win for us and a draw for City would really put the cat among the pigeons. A must not lose game for us I think.
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Hands up. It's totally failed this year. Inevitable I guess, given that at the first prediction date there were 4-5 sides in extremely good runs of form. It was unlikely that could continue. One to ponder for how I use it going forward
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It might be a bit more clear after Tuesday night’s games. Rovers v Walsall and Bradford City v Port Vale means some or all will drop points.A win for us and a draw for City would really put the cat among the pigeons. A must not lose game for us I think.
Both games very likely to be low scoring and tight. 0-0/1-1 likely in both.
Swindon beating Wimbledon my bet of the night though. Odds against Draw no bet.
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A draw in both games is the most logical result, however logic rarely counts in football. A Rovers win would be a massive boost for our promotion hopes right now, and confidence boost for the remaining games. A win will be massive.
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I’m starting to think that 79 points would nick third place, particularly if we beat Wimbledon at home.
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A draw in both games is the most logical result, however logic rarely counts in football. A Rovers win would be a massive boost for our promotion hopes right now, and confidence boost for the remaining games. A win will be massive.
Why are you even posting about this?
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A draw in both games is the most logical result, however logic rarely counts in football. A Rovers win would be a massive boost for our promotion hopes right now, and confidence boost for the remaining games. A win will be massive.
Why are you even posting about this?
Must be less furious today
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A draw in both games is the most logical result, however logic rarely counts in football. A Rovers win would be a massive boost for our promotion hopes right now, and confidence boost for the remaining games. A win will be massive.
Why are you even posting about this?
Must be less furious today
Fickle t**t probably wants to go on Tuesday now.
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Wins for Rovers, PV, Notts and Wimbledon this Tuesday/Wednesday would leave the top 6 separated by just 3 points (71-68). Not sure any formula could have predicted this should it happen. Talk about shredded nerves…
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A couple will fall away, we just don't want to be one of them.
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Put a wadge down on Rovers to go up as Champions at the start of the season. Have continued to back them with odd tenners right up until Friday when we were still 8/1.
We’re now 4/1 having started the season at 12/1 & falling away to 18/1 at one point.
It’s either a set of carburettors or a bottle of screen wash.
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Put a wadge down on Rovers to go up as Champions at the start of the season. Have continued to back them with odd tenners right up until Friday when we were still 8/1.
We’re now 4/1 having started the season at 12/1 & falling away to 18/1 at one point.
It’s either a set of carburettors or a bottle of screen wash.
Currently 6/1 with bet365
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Put a wadge down on Rovers to go up as Champions at the start of the season. Have continued to back them with odd tenners right up until Friday when we were still 8/1.
We’re now 4/1 having started the season at 12/1 & falling away to 18/1 at one point.
It’s either a set of carburettors or a bottle of screen wash.
I put my bet on at 14/1 pre season.
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Walsall at 11-2 to make the play offs looks the value bet imho. Odds that will shorten after Tuesday night hopefully.
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It looks quite simple now. To be in the automatic places we will have to win just one of the games v Bradford, Notts County and Wimbledon whilst not losing either of the other 2. If we do not achieve that its probably the play offs for us.
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We’ve got 6 games left..
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It looks quite simple now. To be in the automatic places we will have to win just one of the games v Bradford, Notts County and Wimbledon whilst not losing either of the other 2. If we do not achieve that its probably the play offs for us.
You didn’t mention us going up as Champions.
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We live in hope.
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That game in hand is crucial, I’ll be watching somehow from Spain that day
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That game in hand is crucial, I’ll be watching somehow from Spain that day
The next game is the most crucial. Save our nervous energy thinking about all the permutations and other teams results. Just prepare for Wimbledon.
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It's Salford next up
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Salford after Wimbledon on 15th
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My mistake I remembered the thread about Salford possibly being on the 8th
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It looks quite simple now. To be in the automatic places we will have to win just one of the games v Bradford, Notts County and Wimbledon whilst not losing either of the other 2. If we do not achieve that its probably the play offs for us.
You didn’t mention us going up as Champions.
I still haven't given up hope of this. We've been shite and kept missing golden opportunities to kick on but we've still hung on in there and it's still very much in our hands.
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It looks quite simple now. To be in the automatic places we will have to win just one of the games v Bradford, Notts County and Wimbledon whilst not losing either of the other 2. If we do not achieve that its probably the play offs for us.
You didn’t mention us going up as Champions.
I still haven't given up hope of this. We've been shite and kept missing golden opportunities to kick on but we've still hung on in there and it's still very much in our hands.
Not very much, it is in our own hands. One game at a time.
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It looks quite simple now. To be in the automatic places we will have to win just one of the games v Bradford, Notts County and Wimbledon whilst not losing either of the other 2. If we do not achieve that its probably the play offs for us.
You didn’t mention us going up as Champions.
I still haven't given up hope of this. We've been shite and kept missing golden opportunities to kick on but we've still hung on in there and it's still very much in our hands.
Not very much, it is in our own hands. One game at a time.
It’s also in Bradford’s own hands.
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Would this be enough?
Wimbledon - lose
Salford - win
Tranmere - draw
Colchester - draw
Bradford - draw
Notts - win
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Would this be enough?
Wimbledon - lose
Salford - win
Tranmere - draw
Colchester - draw
Bradford - draw
Notts - win
Would be tight. That would leave us with 79 points and a goal difference very similar to what we have now. Meaning our opponents would need:
Bradford - 6 points from their remaining 4 games (leaving them on 79 and likely a better GD). So 2 wins from Swindon & Chesterfield (A) and Notts C & Fleetwood (H). Which you’d probably say is likely.
Port Vale - 7 points from 5 games (given their goal difference is slightly worse than ours. Bromley, Grimsby & Gillingham (H) and Carlisle & Wimbledon away so again I’d fancy them to get that many.
Walsall - 7 points from 5 games (with the expectation their GD would be superior). Easiest run in on paper with Harrogate & Accrington at home and Barrow, Newport & Crewe away. The way they’ve been dropping points who knows?
Wimbledon - 8 points from 4 games (after beating us, again with the expectation of a better GD). Someone’s dropping points with the PV game, and with trips to Grimsby & Gillingham and a home game against Chesterfield this is maybe a tall order.
Notts County - would need 4 wins so pretty unlikely, plus play Bradford.
I’d probably say we’d have a 50/50 chance on 79 points.
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The points the third placed team have achieved over the last 10 seasons.
14/15 - 85
15/16 - 85
16/17 - 85
17/18 - 84
18/19 - 79
19/20 - curtailed
20/21 - 79
21/22 - 80
22/23 - 83
23/24 - 86
Do we think 80/81 points will be enough this season to get over the line?
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Probably, the relative points haul for the top seven or so should be much closer than usual.
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Tranmere will still need to secure mathematical safety no matter what by the time we play them and they’re in a really good run of form.
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The points the third placed team have achieved over the last 10 seasons.
14/15 - 85
15/16 - 85
16/17 - 85
17/18 - 84
18/19 - 79
19/20 - curtailed
20/21 - 79
21/22 - 80
22/23 - 83
23/24 - 86
Do we think 80/81 points will be enough this season to get over the line?
81 probably, but depends where the points come from. If we got that many but lost to Notts or Wimbledon and drew with Bradford it would be less likely than if we beat all 3 and dropped points to Salford & Tranmere.
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79 will be enough this season
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Would this be enough?
Wimbledon - lose
Salford - win
Tranmere - draw
Colchester - draw
Bradford - draw
Notts - win
Would be tight. That would leave us with 79 points and a goal difference very similar to what we have now. Meaning our opponents would need:
Bradford - 6 points from their remaining 4 games (leaving them on 79 and likely a better GD). So 2 wins from Swindon & Chesterfield (A) and Notts C & Fleetwood (H). Which you’d probably say is likely.
Port Vale - 7 points from 5 games (given their goal difference is slightly worse than ours. Bromley, Grimsby & Gillingham (H) and Carlisle & Wimbledon away so again I’d fancy them to get that many.
Walsall - 7 points from 5 games (with the expectation their GD would be superior). Easiest run in on paper with Harrogate & Accrington at home and Barrow, Newport & Crewe away. The way they’ve been dropping points who knows?
Wimbledon - 8 points from 4 games (after beating us, again with the expectation of a better GD). Someone’s dropping points with the PV game, and with trips to Grimsby & Gillingham and a home game against Chesterfield this is maybe a tall order.
Notts County - would need 4 wins so pretty unlikely, plus play Bradford.
I’d probably say we’d have a 50/50 chance on 79 points.
Nick, With Bradford already on 73 points and then drawing with us, then another six points from their remaining four matches would put them on 80 points.
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Would this be enough?
Wimbledon - lose
Salford - win
Tranmere - draw
Colchester - draw
Bradford - draw
Notts - win
Would be tight. That would leave us with 79 points and a goal difference very similar to what we have now. Meaning our opponents would need:
Bradford - 6 points from their remaining 4 games (leaving them on 79 and likely a better GD). So 2 wins from Swindon & Chesterfield (A) and Notts C & Fleetwood (H). Which you’d probably say is likely.
Port Vale - 7 points from 5 games (given their goal difference is slightly worse than ours. Bromley, Grimsby & Gillingham (H) and Carlisle & Wimbledon away so again I’d fancy them to get that many.
Walsall - 7 points from 5 games (with the expectation their GD would be superior). Easiest run in on paper with Harrogate & Accrington at home and Barrow, Newport & Crewe away. The way they’ve been dropping points who knows?
Wimbledon - 8 points from 4 games (after beating us, again with the expectation of a better GD). Someone’s dropping points with the PV game, and with trips to Grimsby & Gillingham and a home game against Chesterfield this is maybe a tall order.
Notts County - would need 4 wins so pretty unlikely, plus play Bradford.
I’d probably say we’d have a 50/50 chance on 79 points.
Nick, With Bradford already on 73 points and then drawing with us, then another six points from their remaining four matches would put them on 80 points.
Yep you’re quite right, that would mean it’s an even higher chance that they’ll match 79 points as they would only need 5 from their remaining 4 games.
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4 wins puts us on 82 points - big ifs, obviously..
I reckon that’s enough for 3rd or even second..
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Tranmere will still need to secure mathematical safety no matter what by the time we play them and they’re in a really good run of form.
We are better than Tranmere.
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Tranmere will still need to secure mathematical safety no matter what by the time we play them and they’re in a really good run of form.
We are better than Tranmere.
That's what Chesterfield thought.
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Walsall, Wimbledon, Notts County and us have been the best four teams in L2 since day one. No reason to think that won’t be the top 4 come the end of the season.
i watched the first half of Morecambe v Walsall and Walsall were not the better side - I was keeping an eye on Hull at Sunderland and watched that second half as I lad backed Hull to stay up after those January "proper" signings .
It seems Morecambe had a player sent off after 52 minutes
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/live/c6262egzr4qt
"Two second-half goals gave League Two leaders Walsall victory over a struggling Morecambe side who ended the game with 10 men.
The contest was evenly poised until the 50th minute when Morecambe defender Rhys Williams was sent off for pulling back Jamie Jellis as he looked to run onto a long through ball.
To make matters worse for the home side, the Saddlers took the lead from the resulting free-kick as Taylor Allen curled the ball over the wall and into the goal off the foot of the right-hand post.
Despite being a man down, Morecambe looked to hit back with Marcus Dackers missing a golden chance to equalise when he headed a pinpoint Adam Lewis cross over from close range.
He was made to pay for the miss when Jellis scored a second three minutes from the end when he fired past goalkeeper Harry Burgoyne from the edge of the box.
Morecambe had the better chances of the first half but Lee Angol twice failed to find the target from close range."
now Notts County
-- yes they have Jones - "the old man" etc OUT INJURED
Amazingly Tranmere were much the better side for well over 70 minutes (they recently got a couple of Liverpool loanees)
here i the bbc version which doesn't do Tranmere justice Notts County for some reason were hopeless
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/live/cdryr7jgeg0t
"Late goals from Charlie Whittaker and Alassana Jatta fired promotion-chasing Notts County to a 2-1 win over Tranmere.
Nigel Adkins' side, who saw substitute Kristian Dennis grab a consolation effort, were the better side for long periods.
But they were made to pay for failing to exploit their superiority and remain in deep trouble at the other end of the table.
Despite entering the contest without a win in eight, Rovers carried a threat.
Omari Patrick tested Alex Bass after combining with Jake Garrett before Josh Davison fired over from the edge of the box.
Sam Finley and Chris Merrie were also presented with opportunities to hand Adkins' men the advantage.
Cameron Norman appeared to have done exactly that after meeting a cross by the influential Garrett only for Bass to again intervene.
If Norman could attribute that miss to the County goalkeeper's agility, he had only himself to blame on the stroke of half-time after heading wide from close range.
Whittaker and Jatta punished those misses with clinical 80th and 83rd-minute finishes from Mai Traore assists before Dennis' 88th-minute consolation."
as I keep saying in my world the dangers to us are behind us Bradford and PV
and don't underestimate any of these teams at the bottom Tranmere v Accrington should be "gud un" tonight bare knuckle fight ?
It's worth re-reading the above post --- I was shocked at the time how "Hopeless on paper" Tranmere performed so well and highlighted it - I expected them to beat Accrington but they lost 1-0
and Atkins was shown the door and here are there results "Amazing Jeff" don't ask about Runcorn Linnets - they must be very high in any form table !!!
Sat 22 Feb A Notts County League Two (0)1 - 2(0) 9,476 Dennis
Tue 25 Feb H Accrington Stanley League Two (0)0 - 1(0) 5,757
Wed 26 Feb A Runcorn Linnets Liverpool Cup QF (0)0 - 4(1) 382
Sat 1 Mar H Port Vale League Two (1)1 - 1(1) 6,974 Dennis ------ port vale stupidity gave them the goal !!!
Tue 4 Mar A Grimsby Town League Two (1)1 - 1(0) 4,854 Finley
Sat 8 Mar H Bromley League Two (1)2 - 1(1) 5,615 Hawkes, Patrick
Sat 15 Mar A Bradford City League Two (0)1 - 0(0) 18,845 Hawkes (pen)
Sat 22 Mar A Fleetwood Town League Two (0)0 - 0(0) 3,421 --------- LOST-----
Fri 28 Mar H Cheltenham Town League Two (1)2 - 0(0) 6,650 Dennis, Norman
Tue 1 Apr A Harrogate Town League Two (0)2 - 3(1) 3,325 Hendry, Patrick --------- LOST-----
Sat 5 Apr H Chesterfield League Two (0)4 - 0(0) 6,316 Norman, Hendry, Davison, Finley
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My gut feelings are telling me there's jeopardy in every game from now. Well and truly squeaky bum time. The fewer stats I read, the better I feel. 11 v 11 simples.
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My gut feelings are telling me there's jeopardy in every game from now. Well and truly squeaky bum time. The fewer stats I read, the better I feel. 11 v 11 simples.
The very fact that the distribution of points is more evenly spread than would normally be the case is a seemingly obvious indication of the relative strength (or lack of it) of the teams throughout League 2 this season. I’m sure this fact has not escaped most observers, but it has a continuous overbearing effect on results which those whose concentrate on the relative positions in the table ought not forget.
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As disappointing as the performance was against AFC Wimbledon, after the round of games this weekend we have actually improved our position for automatic performance:
Vale - they have gained two points on us
Bradford - we have gained a point on them
Walsall - we have gained a point on them
AFC Wimbledon - no change
Notts County - we have gained a point on them
Grimsby Town - no change
Colchester United - they have gained two points on us
Results wise, this has been a GOOD weekend for us. As bad as we might appear at times, this is a terrible league with a group of sides who are, Vale aside, unable to string two results together.
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these are not easy matches for Port Vale
Fri 18 Apr A Carlisle United League Two 3pm
Mon 21 Apr H Grimsby Town League Two 3pm
Sat 26 Apr A AFC Wimbledon League Two 12.30pm
Sat 3 May H Gillingham League Two 3pm
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I don’t think it’s necessarily a poor league there’s just a load of teams that are of a similar level.
Crewe for example made the playoffs last year but won’t this year, mk dons made the playoffs last year but won’t this year.
Which shows the league can’t be much worse than last year if at all
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Come on BST give us update on points required we’re getting giddy
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79 will be enough this season
2 weeks on and I think this was a good prediction
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79 will be enough this season
2 weeks on and I think this was a good prediction
Seconded. A win and a draw should be enough.
But what if NC need a draw for a PO slot last day and rovers need a point for auto ? It could happen and footy is a funny old game that throws up these scenarios.
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79 will be enough this season
2 weeks on and I think this was a good prediction
Seconded. A win and a draw should be enough.
But what if NC need a draw for a PO slot last day and rovers need a point for auto ? It could happen and footy is a funny old game that throws up these scenarios.
Shades of West Germany v Austria
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Come on BST give us update on points required we’re getting giddy
Heh!
Miles off this season mate. I'm with Dickos. 79 will do it.
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these are not easy matches for Port Vale
Fri 18 Apr A Carlisle United League Two 3pm
Mon 21 Apr H Grimsby Town League Two 3pm
Sat 26 Apr A AFC Wimbledon League Two 12.30pm
Sat 3 May H Gillingham League Two 3pm
I keep on mentioning the lesser teams and their "Jekyl and Hyde form" and today the record book shows second bottom Carlisle just beat table toppers Vale - yes it could have been a last minute draw but it wasn't
On this "Jekyl and Hyde theme " - How do we explain how Salford win 3-1 away at Notts County ( yet again I will mention their first goal was an absolute pinball wizard double fluke own goal) - then draw at home to us and then they get beaten at home by Relegation threatened Accrington - WHO LET A THREE GOAL LEAD AT 78 MINUTES over Tranmere slip in their last match ???
"J & H" performances even extended today to Grimsby 4-0 losers at home to Swindon and couldn't take advantage of a team who gifted 3 goals from throw ins to Bradford in their last match
At the moment we must be the most consistent team in the League - who is to say we might draw our next three matches ???
by the way we are 9/4 2nd favourites for the Title P Vale being 5/4 for what it is worth
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I backed us to win the title at 14/1 and my cash out has increased to marginally under four times my original stake money.
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After yesterday's performance and day out I've got the feeling we are guna do this now.
Rovers 3 wins - 84pts
Port Vale 2w 1d - 83pts
Bradford 1w 1d 1L - 78pts
Walsall 1w 1d 1L - 77pts
Wimbledon 1w 1d 1L - 74pts
Monday is massive now. We can do Grimsby a favour and hopefully they return that against PV! Come on you reds!!!!! Come on you Mariners!!!
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After yesterday's performance and day out I've got the feeling we are guna do this now.
Rovers 3 wins - 84pts
Port Vale 2w 1d - 83pts
Bradford 1w 1d 1L - 78pts
Walsall 1w 1d 1L - 77pts
Wimbledon 1w 1d 1L - 74pts
Monday is massive now. We can do Grimsby a favour and hopefully they return that against PV! Come on you reds!!!!! Come on you Mariners!!!
Love the positivity....
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After yesterday's performance and day out I've got the feeling we are guna do this now.
Rovers 3 wins - 84pts
Port Vale 2w 1d - 83pts
Bradford 1w 1d 1L - 78pts
Walsall 1w 1d 1L - 77pts
Wimbledon 1w 1d 1L - 74pts
Monday is massive now. We can do Grimsby a favour and hopefully they return that against PV! Come on you reds!!!!! Come on you Mariners!!!
Love the positivity....
:thumbsup:
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After yesterday's performance and day out I've got the feeling we are guna do this now.
Rovers 3 wins - 84pts
Port Vale 2w 1d - 83pts
Bradford 1w 1d 1L - 78pts
Walsall 1w 1d 1L - 77pts
Wimbledon 1w 1d 1L - 74pts
Monday is massive now. We can do Grimsby a favour and hopefully they return that against PV! Come on you reds!!!!! Come on you Mariners!!!
It's coming home!!!
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After yesterday's performance and day out I've got the feeling we are guna do this now.
Rovers 3 wins - 84pts
Port Vale 2w 1d - 83pts
Bradford 1w 1d 1L - 78pts
Walsall 1w 1d 1L - 77pts
Wimbledon 1w 1d 1L - 74pts
Monday is massive now. We can do Grimsby a favour and hopefully they return that against PV! Come on you reds!!!!! Come on you Mariners!!!
It's coming home!!!
Great shout. Now, about Saturday's lottery numbers......
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The only time we will know for certain how many points every team will get is after the last match of the season.
The predictor thing will get more accurate as games go by, which is expected of course.
B*GGER this "pointless "but "bonding" thread .The most important match of the season is tomorrow night and you all don't know which match it is
it's Lazarus Carlisle v Riderless Walsall ( the saddle slipped many weeks ago)
If Carlisle can win this then the 3 instant promotion places without any doubt do open up like the parting of the Red Sea as well mannered Walsall stand aside. and be "pulled up" lame - the other 5 of us Bradford Rovers Notts County PV & Wimbledon are going to collect points - nearly all wins -in fact we have the hardest match on Tuesday
Rachel might not know what 5 into 3 places is but it is a lot better than 5 into 2 places.
AND Remember when doing your top of the tree calculations Walsall have played 18 home (meaning they have 5 at home to play and 7 away )
and only 16 away ... whilst PV have played only 15 home and 17 away which is easily forgotten
Did a cuckoo just fly over?
With hindsight when I said that Carlisle v Walsall was the most important match of the season I believe I was right
FACT Carlisle didn't win but they stopped Walsall from winning whilst THE POWERS ABOVE DECIDED WE SHOULD SOMEHOW LOSE TO BROMLEY
SO if Carlisle had lost that match there would have been trouble at Mill FOR US
As time has shown it was Iberian Red who was in Cuckoo
Land MiLord
We got out of Jail that night DIDN'T LOSE ANOTHER MATCH AND THE REST IS HISTORY
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Translation please.!
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Translation please.!
SEE ABOVE
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Nope, still b*llocks.
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Nope, still b*llocks.
SOME OF OUR FANS HAVE VERY LITTLE INTELLIGENCE -PLEASE STOP PRETENDING YOU ARE ONE OF THOSE
I ACTUALLY BACKED PORT VALE FOR THE TITLE AT 33/1 that day before they drew 0-0 with Harrogate then backed them again at 50/1 - if they had a proper Manager they would have walked this League
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After yesterday's performance and day out I've got the feeling we are guna do this now.
Rovers 3 wins - 84pts
Port Vale 2w 1d - 83pts
Bradford 1w 1d 1L - 78pts
Walsall 1w 1d 1L - 77pts
Wimbledon 1w 1d 1L - 74pts
Monday is massive now. We can do Grimsby a favour and hopefully they return that against PV! Come on you reds!!!!! Come on you Mariners!!!
It's coming home!!!
Great shout. Now, about Saturday's lottery numbers......
I wasn't too far out!
Right teams in the right order but points were slightly out.
PV 1 win less than predicted finished on 80 and Wimbledon with 1 draw less than predicted finished on 73.
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Nope, still b*llocks.
SOME OF OUR FANS HAVE VERY LITTLE INTELLIGENCE -PLEASE STOP PRETENDING YOU ARE ONE OF THOSE
I ACTUALLY BACKED PORT VALE FOR THE TITLE AT 33/1 that day before they drew 0-0 with Harrogate then backed them again at 50/1 - if they had a proper Manager they would have walked this League
Pot to Kettle: “Colour Check, over”
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At the end of the day (season) we won the most games, lost the least (joint with PV) & had the best goal difference, which if I remember most people were saying our GD would go against us come end of season.
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At the end of the day (season) we won the most games, lost the least (joint with PV) & had the best goal difference, which if I remember most people were saying our GD would go against us come end of season.
I was one of those who expressed a worry about our (then) inferior GD Bessie Red.
A fantastic turn-around by Rovers to finish with the best GD in the division.
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At the end of the day (season) we won the most games, lost the least (joint with PV) & had the best goal difference, which if I remember most people were saying our GD would go against us come end of season.
I was one of those who expressed a worry about our (then) inferior GD Bessie Red.
A fantastic turn-around by Rovers to finish with the best GD in the division.
Your observation Pancho was a quite rational one. If we had continued the moderate form with narrow margins of victory with some defeats by 3 goal margins which was the established pattern up to then, our GD could well have counted against us.
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At the end of the day (season) we won the most games, lost the least (joint with PV) & had the best goal difference, which if I remember most people were saying our GD would go against us come end of season.
I was one of those who expressed a worry about our (then) inferior GD Bessie Red.
A fantastic turn-around by Rovers to finish with the best GD in the division.
Your observation Pancho was a quite rational one. If we had continued the moderate form with narrow margins of victory with some defeats by 3 goal margins which was the established pattern up to then, our GD could well have counted against us.
As Grant said though its a 46 game season and all that matters is where you are at the end of the 46th game.
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I think we should ask Grant for lottery numbers, and if truth be told, better just listen to him, seems to know what he’s spouting about- remarkable!
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I think we should ask Grant for lottery numbers, and if truth be told, better just listen to him, seems to know what he’s spouting about- remarkable!
Certainly a confirmation bias to his prediction skills. I heard plenty of managers saying the same thing at the start of the season and it didn’t materialise!