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Viking Chat => Viking Chat => Topic started by: normal rules on March 14, 2026, 07:04:13 pm

Title: 10pts?
Post by: normal rules on March 14, 2026, 07:04:13 pm
I reckon 10 pts from last ten games will ensure safety.
The first of which should come at home to pv.
Anything from Barnsley and Bolton would be a bonus.
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: les@donr on March 14, 2026, 07:24:32 pm
I think we might get draws at Bolton and Barnsley.
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: DearneValleyRover on March 14, 2026, 07:30:05 pm
I think 50 will be enough this season but I don’t have BST’s legendary computer program to confirm it
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: Padge_DRFC on March 14, 2026, 07:40:12 pm
Mate who is a Barnsley fan says they're useless. I thought they were poor at our place. 2 chances 2 goals from memory
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: Petche on March 14, 2026, 07:53:01 pm
Mate who is a Barnsley fan says they're useless. I thought they were poor at our place. 2 chances 2 goals from memory

One of many games this season we should have won!
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: TonySoprano on March 14, 2026, 08:33:22 pm
48 will do it
 
Win at Bolton, and then party at Oakwell after we beat them to secure safety  :party:
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: normal rules on March 14, 2026, 08:56:40 pm
48 will do it
 
Win at Bolton, and then party at Oakwell after we beat them to secure safety  :party:


That’s not the rovers way is it?
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 14, 2026, 09:52:05 pm
I think 50 will be enough this season but I don’t have BST’s legendary computer program to confirm it

Been too busy this year I'm afraid, and in any case it was utter crack blast year. Might have a go this week if things at work slow down a bit.
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 14, 2026, 10:10:50 pm
My gut feeling is that 47 points will be enough. Blackpool were bleeding awful today. Worst I've seen all season. They've only got 9 points in their last 14 games. On today's showing, it'd be a brave punter who bet on them topping that in the remaining 9 games.
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: normal rules on March 14, 2026, 10:20:46 pm
Saw an interesting stat on Facebook . Rovers are third in the league of “big chances “ created in lge one this season . Even more than Lincoln .
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: andysly on March 14, 2026, 11:08:07 pm
I thought a couple of weeks ago it might take as much as 52 to be safe, but maybe 48 will do it now.
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: Usher wide. on March 14, 2026, 11:12:00 pm
Saw an interesting stat on Facebook . Rovers are third in the league of “big chances “ created in lge one this season . Even more than Lincoln .

And there’s me worrying!

Facebook. The place to go to when you’re at your wits end…..& receive plenty of ideas on how ‘best to end it all’!
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: ForsolongaRover on March 14, 2026, 11:18:32 pm
Mate who is a Barnsley fan says they're useless. I thought they were poor at our place. 2 chances 2 goals from memory

It’s all relative though isn’t it - they are having their worst season for some time, aren’t they?
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: Move DRFC on March 14, 2026, 11:59:28 pm
You'd think Vale, Rotherham and Northampton are very likely to have taken up three of the spots. Orient should be ok considering their squad and manager. Wigan too probably have enough quality. Keep an eye on Exeter who are in freefall.
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: Sprotyrover on March 15, 2026, 12:35:21 am
Listening to Grant Mcann post match interview we currently averaging 2 points a game since Wimbledon!
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: Pliskin on March 15, 2026, 12:44:34 am
Blackpool's remaining home fixtures:
 - Port Vale
 - Burton
 - Exeter
 - Peterborough
 - Leyton Orient

As poor as they looked today, I don't think we can write them off just yet.
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: RoversInSpain on March 15, 2026, 03:19:32 pm
Highest total points for a relegation from league 1 was Plymouth in 2018/19 season with 50 points. This was a rare event, and generally 45 or less would take you down.
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: ncRover on March 15, 2026, 04:11:00 pm
I think Exeter will drop in.

No win in 11 games and that was Port Vale.
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: Dutch Uncle on March 15, 2026, 04:43:09 pm
Highest total points for a relegation from league 1 was Plymouth in 2018/19 season with 50 points. This was a rare event, and generally 45 or less would take you down.

If we go back to when 3 points per win was introduced in 1981-82 and when tier 3 was called Division 3, the highest number of points to be relegated was 54 in 1988-89. Northamption and Southend both finished with 54 points, Northampton survived but Southend were relegated on goal difference.

In the 41 seasons since then the team in 20th place has averaged 50.1 points (highest 54, lowest 40) and the team in 21st place has averaged 48.2 (also Highest 54, lowest 40)
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: GazLaz on March 15, 2026, 05:17:47 pm
I think Exeter will drop in.

No win in 11 games and that was Port Vale.

Between Blackpool and Exeter for the third relegation spot for me.
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: Fal on March 15, 2026, 06:12:04 pm
I think Exeter will drop in.

No win in 11 games and that was Port Vale.

Between Blackpool and Exeter for the third relegation spot for me.

What about the 4th?
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 15, 2026, 06:15:57 pm
Highest total points for a relegation from league 1 was Plymouth in 2018/19 season with 50 points. This was a rare event, and generally 45 or less would take you down.

If we go back to when 3 points per win was introduced in 1981-82 and when tier 3 was called Division 3, the highest number of points to be relegated was 54 in 1988-89. Northamption and Southend both finished with 54 points, Northampton survived but Southend were relegated on goal difference.

In the 41 seasons since then the team in 20th place has averaged 50.1 points (highest 54, lowest 40) and the team in 21st place has averaged 48.2 (also Highest 54, lowest 40)


Grand work as ever Dutch. Is there any perceptible trend over time in these figures? My gut feeling is that the survival target has been at the lower end of these numbers in the past 10-15 years.
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: Dutch Uncle on March 15, 2026, 06:48:13 pm
Highest total points for a relegation from league 1 was Plymouth in 2018/19 season with 50 points. This was a rare event, and generally 45 or less would take you down.

If we go back to when 3 points per win was introduced in 1981-82 and when tier 3 was called Division 3, the highest number of points to be relegated was 54 in 1988-89. Northamption and Southend both finished with 54 points, Northampton survived but Southend were relegated on goal difference.

In the 41 seasons since then the team in 20th place has averaged 50.1 points (highest 54, lowest 40) and the team in 21st place has averaged 48.2 (also Highest 54, lowest 40)


Grand work as ever Dutch. Is there any perceptible trend over time in these figures? My gut feeling is that the survival target has been at the lower end of these numbers in the past 10-15 years.

In 10 year chunks:

1981-90: 20th 50.7, 21st 49.1
1991-00: 20th 50.8, 21st 48.7
2001-10: 20th 50.2, 21st 48.4
2011-20: 20th 49.8, 21st 47.3
2021-26: 20th 44.8, 21st 43.8

So yes it does seem to be decreasing
(Just noticed I haven't updated my figures since 2021-22, our last season in Tier 3 - will do over the coming days)

BTW for the COVID season I took the ppg and multiplied it by 46 for a comparable full season total



Edit: just updated to include the last three seasons which as can be seen above have produced very low figures
In fact the 44 year average is now down to: 20th 49.9, 21st 48.0
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: RoversInSpain on March 15, 2026, 07:03:27 pm
Stunning stuff DU
So 51 points does it ….
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: Dutch Uncle on March 15, 2026, 07:10:48 pm
In an average year ....................... :blush:

The annual question - how is this year panning out compared to an average year  :lol:
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: RoversInSpain on March 15, 2026, 07:13:55 pm
Some fans will say it’s been very average.
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 15, 2026, 07:24:14 pm
Highest total points for a relegation from league 1 was Plymouth in 2018/19 season with 50 points. This was a rare event, and generally 45 or less would take you down.

If we go back to when 3 points per win was introduced in 1981-82 and when tier 3 was called Division 3, the highest number of points to be relegated was 54 in 1988-89. Northamption and Southend both finished with 54 points, Northampton survived but Southend were relegated on goal difference.

In the 41 seasons since then the team in 20th place has averaged 50.1 points (highest 54, lowest 40) and the team in 21st place has averaged 48.2 (also Highest 54, lowest 40)


Grand work as ever Dutch. Is there any perceptible trend over time in these figures? My gut feeling is that the survival target has been at the lower end of these numbers in the past 10-15 years.

In 10 year chunks:

1981-90: 20th 50.7, 21st 49.1
1991-00: 20th 50.8, 21st 48.7
2001-10: 20th 50.2, 21st 48.4
2011-20: 20th 49.8, 21st 47.3

So yes it does seem to be decreasing
(Just noticed I haven't updated my figures since 2021-22, our last season in Tier 3 - will do over the coming days)

BTW for the COVID season I took the ppg and multiplied it by 46 for a comparable full season total

Brilliant stuff Dutch!  I wonder if this is a function of more clubs hitting financial problems these days? So if you are bad, you're further away from the average these days than 40 years ago
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: Dutch Uncle on March 15, 2026, 07:31:27 pm
Highest total points for a relegation from league 1 was Plymouth in 2018/19 season with 50 points. This was a rare event, and generally 45 or less would take you down.

If we go back to when 3 points per win was introduced in 1981-82 and when tier 3 was called Division 3, the highest number of points to be relegated was 54 in 1988-89. Northamption and Southend both finished with 54 points, Northampton survived but Southend were relegated on goal difference.

In the 41 seasons since then the team in 20th place has averaged 50.1 points (highest 54, lowest 40) and the team in 21st place has averaged 48.2 (also Highest 54, lowest 40)


Grand work as ever Dutch. Is there any perceptible trend over time in these figures? My gut feeling is that the survival target has been at the lower end of these numbers in the past 10-15 years.

In 10 year chunks:

1981-90: 20th 50.7, 21st 49.1
1991-00: 20th 50.8, 21st 48.7
2001-10: 20th 50.2, 21st 48.4
2011-20: 20th 49.8, 21st 47.3

So yes it does seem to be decreasing
(Just noticed I haven't updated my figures since 2021-22, our last season in Tier 3 - will do over the coming days)

BTW for the COVID season I took the ppg and multiplied it by 46 for a comparable full season total

Brilliant stuff Dutch!  I wonder if this is a function of more clubs hitting financial problems these days? So if you are bad, you're further away from the average these days than 40 years ago

Or possibly more money filtering down with more 'bigger' clubs playing in Tier 3 - and the difference between top and bottom of the Divison increasing (the top teams seem to be more successful than previously - and I haven't even got Birmingham's record last season in my data)
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: GazLaz on March 15, 2026, 07:37:38 pm
I think Exeter will drop in.

No win in 11 games and that was Port Vale.

Between Blackpool and Exeter for the third relegation spot for me.

What about the 4th?

I meant the final spot!
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: Metalmicky on March 15, 2026, 07:44:23 pm
My thoughts are that 48 will be enough.  Any points from our next two games would be great, but I hope that our Port Vale game will provide 3 of the points needed... and our home games against Mansfield and Reading may see us safe
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: Petche on March 15, 2026, 07:46:13 pm
My thoughts are that 48 will be enough.  Any points from our next two games would be great, but I hope that our Port Vale game will provide 3 of the points needed... and our home games against Mansfield and Reading may see us safe

I don't fancy us against Reading - our ultimate bogey team.
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: RoversInSpain on March 15, 2026, 07:50:07 pm
Crikey, don’t want to rely on any result v Reading, the biggest bogey of all bogies they are. Remember a championship game going horribly wrong v them lot

Though I will mention 7-5
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: ForsolongaRover on March 15, 2026, 09:11:10 pm
I agree with Dutch and BST.

If you look at the Form Table the current bottom 4 feature in the bottom six for all of the 6, 8, and 10 match sequences and broadly speaking, are getting worse.

Rovers have declined marginally in the same sequences, but are still “mid-table” in form and averaging well over a point a game.

So, irrespective of my personal reservations about team selection and the manner of our performances, we seem to be doing enough.
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: GazLaz on March 15, 2026, 09:38:40 pm
I agree with Dutch and BST.

If you look at the Form Table the current bottom 4 feature in the bottom six for all of the 6, 8, and 10 match sequences and broadly speaking, are getting worse.

Rovers have declined marginally in the same sequences, but are still “mid-table” in form and averaging well over a point a game.

So, irrespective of my personal reservations about team selection and the manner of our performances, we seem to be doing enough.

The underlying numbers have been pretty much mid table all season. We are on a trajectory to align with them.
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 15, 2026, 10:07:12 pm
I agree with Dutch and BST.

If you look at the Form Table the current bottom 4 feature in the bottom six for all of the 6, 8, and 10 match sequences and broadly speaking, are getting worse.

Rovers have declined marginally in the same sequences, but are still “mid-table” in form and averaging well over a point a game.

So, irrespective of my personal reservations about team selection and the manner of our performances, we seem to be doing enough.

The underlying numbers have been pretty much mid table all season. We are on a trajectory to align with them.

I don't have the numbers, but the evidence of my eyes says we've rarely looked like a relegation side this season. Just really December where we started to look like we'd lost confidence and shape. Apart from that, we've had matches where we've collapsed, sure, but in most defeats we never looked like a well-beaten team. The away match at Lincoln is a perfect example. Other than half a dozen canings, we've generally looked competitive, even when not winning for weeks.
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: In the box on March 15, 2026, 10:15:27 pm
I reckon 10 pts from last ten games will ensure safety.
The first of which should come at home to pv.
Anything from Barnsley and Bolton would be a bonus.
I think you right about the 10 points   , I didn’t think this would be our position at the start of the season . Learning curve for next season .
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: normal rules on March 18, 2026, 08:20:51 am
Well there’s a point I didn’t see coming . 9 from 9 now .
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: Lincoln Rover on March 18, 2026, 09:37:01 am
I’m guessing 10 more from now. 54 to be safe
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: drfchound on March 18, 2026, 07:28:13 pm
A short while ago I asked if anyone thought we couldn’t get the 15 points I thought we needed from fifteen remaining matches.
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: Prez on March 20, 2026, 02:02:28 pm
Blackpool's remaining home fixtures:
 - Port Vale
 - Burton
 - Exeter
 - Peterborough
 - Leyton Orient

As poor as they looked today, I don't think we can write them off just yet.

Nope and neither the other teams. Wigan play 7 of the bottom 9, Burton, Orient and Exeter all have the vast majority of their remaining fixtures against teams in the bottom 10.

Think 52 points will be needed to stay up.
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: Pancho Regan on March 20, 2026, 11:12:14 pm
I agree with Dutch and BST.

If you look at the Form Table the current bottom 4 feature in the bottom six for all of the 6, 8, and 10 match sequences and broadly speaking, are getting worse.

Rovers have declined marginally in the same sequences, but are still “mid-table” in form and averaging well over a point a game.

So, irrespective of my personal reservations about team selection and the manner of our performances, we seem to be doing enough.

The underlying numbers have been pretty much mid table all season. We are on a trajectory to align with them.

This is the sort of mumbo-jumbo that makes me smile and shake my head.
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: normal rules on March 21, 2026, 05:07:46 pm
Well well. 4 points from two games where i personally didn’t think any would be coming . 6 pts from 8 games should do it now.
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: jmt23 on March 21, 2026, 05:14:42 pm
It’s a tight league this year, teams around us keep picking up draws and wins unexpectedly. It’s such a shame, in the main we’ve been better than a relegation battle.
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: les@donr on March 21, 2026, 06:40:59 pm
Win on Tuesday and we’re almost there, the only team who could realistically catch us is Blackpool, can’t see it happening.
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: big fat yorkshire pudding on March 21, 2026, 06:56:36 pm
Somewhat abnormal that the 4th relegation spot is heading for higher points than normal.  I feel like Exeter are the prime targets for that spot. Awful form.
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: big fat yorkshire pudding on March 21, 2026, 06:57:18 pm
Worth adding over the last 10 games we would be 7th in the form table. I'm not sure if having to play a number of the bottom teams helps or hinders us.
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: Barmby Rover on March 21, 2026, 06:57:52 pm
3 points is the interesting one now, can we overtake Barnsley before the end of the season? It would not surprise me if we did.
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: normal rules on March 24, 2026, 09:52:34 pm
Well, well. 3pts from seven games then. (Imho)
I started this thread thinking the first pts would come next at home to PV.
And here we are 7 points later.
Perhaps I should re name the thread 10pts from a playoff slot.
Surely not?

Regarding form, rovers are 7th (last ten) and 6th (last 6 games)
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: Alan Southstand on March 25, 2026, 11:30:53 am
We have a nice natural break from the maelstrom of games we’ve just been through. A good opportunity to recharge the batteries ready for a strong run-in?
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: IDM on March 25, 2026, 12:22:24 pm
It won’t harm the players to have a little respite..
Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: normal rules on April 03, 2026, 10:19:58 pm
3 pts from six games then . Should be well within rovers grasp . Surely ?
Huge game for Exeter on Monday points wise.
Bogey team game v reading who are wanting a p/o slot.
Cobblers dead and buried ? Pressure off?
Lincoln coasting and prob promotion nailed on before our game.
Stevenage still in with a playoff chance.
Posh last game for mid table obscurity?

I’d happily lose every game if it meant we could beat Lincoln at home for the three points to keep rovers safe. I’d love rovers to spoil their run .

Title: Re: 10pts?
Post by: IDM on April 04, 2026, 03:50:49 pm
It won’t harm the players to have a little respite..

Perhaps I was wrong, maybe it would have been better to have stayed match sharp.?