Viking Supporters Co-operative

Viking Chat => Off Topic => Topic started by: Axholme Lion on January 24, 2020, 09:59:48 AM

Title: Coronavirus
Post by: Axholme Lion on January 24, 2020, 09:59:48 AM
Do you catch this by drinking lemonade?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: RobTheRover on January 24, 2020, 12:32:52 PM
Beer
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Donnywolf on January 25, 2020, 08:13:28 PM
Beer

Latest from Barge Inn by coincidence

https://www.facebook.com/bargeinnthorne/photos/a.364376320619164/1208489716207816/?type=3&theater
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: mushRTID on February 05, 2020, 06:47:43 PM
Surprised this hasn’t had more discussion.
How serious do we reckon this is?

Are we likely to get this under control?

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sprotyrover on February 05, 2020, 07:13:17 PM
Surprised this hasn’t had more discussion.
How serious do we reckon this is?

Are we likely to get this under control?


I hope so because according to the BBC last night the number of infected persons doubles every day. That could mean well over 1 Million infected within 2/3 weeks once you hit a Million you're at 12 million within 5 days.
3 days later you are looking at 100 million. Keep calm and carry on?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on February 05, 2020, 07:56:54 PM
Surprised this hasn’t had more discussion.
How serious do we reckon this is?

Are we likely to get this under control?


I hope so because according to the BBC last night the number of infected persons doubles every day. That could mean well over 1 Million infected within 2/3 weeks once you hit a Million you're at 12 million within 5 days.
3 days later you are looking at 100 million. Keep calm and carry on?

10 days after that, you're at 100 billion. I'd say we're in trouble.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Monkcaster_Rover on February 05, 2020, 08:17:42 PM
Aren't Australia cracking on with the cure for it? Sure I read they'd made decent head way into it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BigH on February 05, 2020, 09:01:33 PM
Surprised this hasn’t had more discussion.
How serious do we reckon this is?

Are we likely to get this under control?


I hope so because according to the BBC last night the number of infected persons doubles every day. That could mean well over 1 Million infected within 2/3 weeks once you hit a Million you're at 12 million within 5 days.
3 days later you are looking at 100 million. Keep calm and carry on?
Only it's not doubling every day is it. It's going up by c3000 every day (ok there was a spike of 5000 today) and has been largely contained outside of China.

That's not to say that it couldn't suddenly rip through but, right now, nothing like as bad as SARS was.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on February 05, 2020, 09:05:40 PM
Aren't Australia cracking on with the cure for it? Sure I read they'd made decent head way into it.

Were sterilising the joint by setting fire down everything we can  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on February 05, 2020, 09:37:15 PM
Surprised this hasn’t had more discussion.
How serious do we reckon this is?

Are we likely to get this under control?


I hope so because according to the BBC last night the number of infected persons doubles every day. That could mean well over 1 Million infected within 2/3 weeks once you hit a Million you're at 12 million within 5 days.
3 days later you are looking at 100 million. Keep calm and carry on?
Only it's not doubling every day is it. It's going up by c3000 every day (ok there was a spike of 5000 today) and has been largely contained outside of China.

That's not to say that it couldn't suddenly rip through but, right now, nothing like as bad as SARS was.

Not really right that, Big H.

There's already been 4 times as many cases of Coronavirus as SARS and nearly as many fatalities. It's inevitable that these numbers are going to increase greatly because it's already spread so far, and can be passed on asymptomatically, meaning it's nigh on impossible to contain it.

SARS had a much higher death rate once you'd contracted it, but this one is going to kill a lot more people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on February 07, 2020, 09:07:46 AM
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/02/05/chinas-coronavirus-not-remotely-control-world-economy-mounting2/

Grim reading. It looks like we're in for another big recession.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Donnywolf on February 07, 2020, 09:38:39 AM
Trying NOT to post anything political but dont worry folks as I am sure Hancock can be relied on for staying ahead of the coronavirus "curve" and delivering all of us from this mess
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on February 07, 2020, 09:46:51 AM
I have been visiting hospitals a lot recent, thanks to both parents having extended bouts of illness and I have to say, if this virus breaks out in the UK, I fear the NHS won't cope.

Already it's difficult to see a GP. A&E is already groaning under the strain and in the wards, there's a shortage of beds.

So it's vital they try and keep this thing out. At least until the weather warms up, there are reports that this Wuhan flu doesn't like warm conditions like regular winter flu. Fingers crossed that is correct, it might just give us some breathing space to get a vaccine sorted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on February 07, 2020, 02:37:39 PM
(https://www.owlstalk.co.uk/forums/uploads/monthly_2020_02/1596290458_received_262358388082884(002).thumb.jpeg.38dec9b8d1668190dd56330188208610.jpeg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BigH on February 07, 2020, 07:43:49 PM
Surprised this hasn’t had more discussion.
How serious do we reckon this is?

Are we likely to get this under control?


I hope so because according to the BBC last night the number of infected persons doubles every day. That could mean well over 1 Million infected within 2/3 weeks once you hit a Million you're at 12 million within 5 days.
3 days later you are looking at 100 million. Keep calm and carry on?
Only it's not doubling every day is it. It's going up by c3000 every day (ok there was a spike of 5000 today) and has been largely contained outside of China.

That's not to say that it couldn't suddenly rip through but, right now, nothing like as bad as SARS was.

Not really right that, Big H.

There's already been 4 times as many cases of Coronavirus as SARS and nearly as many fatalities. It's inevitable that these numbers are going to increase greatly because it's already spread so far, and can be passed on asymptomatically, meaning it's nigh on impossible to contain it.

SARS had a much higher death rate once you'd contracted it, but this one is going to kill a lot more people.

Hang on a sec, which bit? The stats - if you believe them - show it's not doubling every day.

The comment about SARS, I agree; sorry, I was looking at the mortality rate which was aggressive in the case of SARS.

However, the fact is that there's still a lot that's not known about this virus although, what's promising so far, is that it does look like it can be contained.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sprotyrover on February 07, 2020, 09:01:15 PM
Can you trust the Chinese govt?  very few of us would trust our own government. Why is the whole country in lock down? We are talking about 1.4 Billion people here!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BigH on February 07, 2020, 09:34:06 PM
Yep, a big question. Being cynical, it's easy to see the numbers being massaged.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on February 07, 2020, 10:58:12 PM
BigH.

I was meaning that saying it was nothing like as bad as SARS wasn't really right. Because it has spread far, far more widely and infected more people than SARS did, and by the end of the weekend, will have killed more people too. That was the only bit I was taking issue with. The other thing is that, because it spreads asymptomatically, it is going to be far harder than SARS to contain. SARS infected a total of about 8000 people in ten weeks before it was brought under control. Coronavirus infected that many in ten DAYS and its still infecting many more new cases per day than SARS ever did.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on February 08, 2020, 10:26:56 AM
According to the official figures so far there are 638 dead and 1,568 recovered.

These are Chinese figures, there might be some doubt about them but we can assume if they are massaged they have been adjusted to look good.

It is a different statistic but it looks quite a bit different to the official mortality rate of just over 2%.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on February 08, 2020, 10:39:46 AM
We all so know for certain, it has killed two doctors and one of them appeared to be a fit, healthy bloke in his late thirties.

I have seen a figure, I don't know if it is official, reporting it has infected 29% of health workers in Chinese hospitals.

I'd say this thing is looking like it is very virulent.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BigH on February 08, 2020, 10:42:43 AM
BigH.

I was meaning that saying it was nothing like as bad as SARS wasn't really right. Because it has spread far, far more widely and infected more people than SARS did, and by the end of the weekend, will have killed more people too. That was the only bit I was taking issue with. The other thing is that, because it spreads asymptomatically, it is going to be far harder than SARS to contain. SARS infected a total of about 8000 people in ten weeks before it was brought under control. Coronavirus infected that many in ten DAYS and its still infecting many more new cases per day than SARS ever did.
True.

I read a stat that the mortality rate in Wuhan us now around 4%. Scary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on February 08, 2020, 11:02:54 AM
We all so know for certain, it has killed two doctors and one of them appeared to be a fit, healthy bloke in his late thirties.

I have seen a figure, I don't know if it is official, reporting it has infected 29% of health workers in Chinese hospitals.

I'd say this thing is looking like it is very virulent.

I heard an epidemiologist in the radio yesterday suggesting that the key issue may be how much of the virus someone comes into contact with initially. Because we don't have innate immunity, if a victim comes into contact with a lot of the virus, it can do a lot of damage to the lungs before our immune system starts to figure out how to deal with it.

That would explain why health workers are being hit hard I guess.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on February 08, 2020, 11:13:53 AM
My niece has been teaching in China and is coming home for for her Sisters wedding next Saturday, luckily she has been in Russia for the last 3 weeks visiting friends and did not return the China because her employers told her not to because of the virus
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ravenrover on February 08, 2020, 12:12:54 PM
According to the official figures so far there are 638 dead and 1,568 recovered.

These are Chinese figures, there might be some doubt about them but we can assume if they are massaged they have been adjusted to look good.

It is a different statistic but it looks quite a bit different to the official mortality rate of just over 2%.
Think you could probably add a couple of zeros on those figures
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sprotyrover on February 10, 2020, 08:43:31 PM
Some disturbing stories circulating on social media,not going to quote any but I wouldn't trust our own Govt if this hit the UK big time and I certainly don't believe anything being peddled by the Chinese Government.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on February 13, 2020, 07:56:19 AM
I certainly don't believe anything being peddled by the Chinese Government.

As expected really...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51482994
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on February 13, 2020, 08:38:25 AM
Last nights release of Corvd 19 figures confirms a couple of things.

The rumours about the Chinese government tampering with the figures were true.

They haven't got this thing under any sort of control in China. In fact they only put out figures for Hubei and haven't released the daily figure for China as a whole. It suggests it's worse than we now know it to be.

Overnight there has been another jump in infections aboard the Japanese cruise ship too.

It's going to be very difficult to contain in China I think.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on February 13, 2020, 10:11:29 AM
RD.

It's the Chinese Government that removed the official who wasn't reporting correctly, replaced him, and released these updated figures.

It's a bit harsh to blame the Chinese Govt for a cover up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on February 13, 2020, 11:32:34 AM
BST

Well perhaps. It's odd that they have failed to release updated daily figures for the wider nation.

If that figure turns out to be substantially higher. My bet is it will. Then it points to a government cover up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on February 13, 2020, 12:02:42 PM
RD.

You might be right. But there's no sign of the Chinese national Govt covering things up. They have just sacked the head of the Communist party in Hubei province and released updated figures which (and this is the crucial thing) include a much wider definition of who is infected). Doing that first in the province most affected is logical.

It looks to me more like they are working out policy as they go, and finding some incompetent handling, than covering this up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ravenrover on February 13, 2020, 12:42:54 PM
Bearing in mind when I worked in China in the early 2000's the ordinary people I spoke to denied there had been a revolution when Mao came to power and that Tiananman didn't happen mmmm!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on February 13, 2020, 04:38:31 PM
It seems to be that earlier this week they started compiling the figures differently.

They stopped including people with symptoms of pneumonia, fever and so on IF they didn't test positive for Corvid 19. Things like this to massage the figures down, and send a message to the markets that China was going back to work and they had it all under control.

I don't think this would have been a decision taken by a couple of people locally in Hubei.

Now the figures based on the original system are out it looks like they are putting in people with a military background, closer to the top of the party in charge. My guess is there will be a further clamp down and quarentining but how long can they keep that up for?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on February 13, 2020, 04:47:18 PM
Why the number of coronavirus deaths has suddenly surged in Hubei is more difficult to explain.

Tonight's figures will be interesting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on February 13, 2020, 06:17:53 PM
There HASN'T been a surge today. They've just included cases that previously hadn't been classed as being coronavirus cases. So you shouldn't see this massive increase today as evidence of a huge upward slope on the trend. More a one-time step. (The opposite of  how Thatcher used to deal with unemployment - they couldn't get the actual figures to come down, so they changed the definition of "unemployed" and - whaddya know? - fewer people in the figures.)

But yes, it will be interesting to see what the trend looks like with this new definition of what constitutes a coronavirus case. And there may be more steps as other regions apply the new definition from Hubei.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on February 14, 2020, 09:15:04 AM
Well last nights figures were interesting. Revised down due to double counting apparently.

The Americans are doubting the politburo are being completely honest. So Christ knows where it's at.

There have been some figures from Tom Tom that suggest traffic levels are between 80-50% lower in Chinese cities than usual. That suggests the Chinese economy is far from getting back on track.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on February 20, 2020, 11:35:35 AM
For those wanting to see up to date figures I found this website...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on February 22, 2020, 10:12:14 AM
Somehow this story seems to have gone a bit quiet in the media. Perhaps they are getting a bit bored of reporting everyday mor people in China are infected.

The narrative still seems to be it's slowing down. Not to worry it's soon going to be over... Only China has now change the way it calculates official figures no fewer than five times. It looks very much like they are manipulating the figures to look good.

The outbreak in South Korea is most concerning. There the figures are reliable and they show it's going exponential, doubling with each passing day.

News as well that another Chinese doctor has died. This one was just 29.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on February 23, 2020, 11:37:41 AM
RD.

It's not doubling every day in South Korea. It did on Friday. The rate of increase was much lower yesterday.

That's not to say we are not on a knife edge. The spread in South Korea, Iran and Italy is very worrying. The concern is that, because it spreads asymptomatically, once it gets established in a country, you e lost the possibility to confine it.

My gut feeling is that it WILL become a pandemic. And the global deaths will be in the millions or tens of millions of it does. The next few weeks are probably crucial. But I just don't see how it's going to be confined. Closing down entire towns like they are doing in Italy may slow its spread, but I don't see that stopping it entirely.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: idler on February 23, 2020, 12:02:17 PM
In today's world with vast numbers in transit at any one time, by the time you realise it is here lots of potential carriers have already left the area.
You are always playing catch up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on February 23, 2020, 06:02:14 PM
Four Serie A matches cancelled this weekend.

I have to agree Billy, it's looking like a pandemic. In all seriousness I'm begining to wonder if we will be able to conclude the football season now.

Apparently the Chinese media are saying the Wuhan seafood market is not the source of the virus now... Which begs the question, where did it come from?

Attention turns to the markets opening on Monday now, will they start to reflect the growing concern yet, I wonder?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dagenham Rover on February 23, 2020, 06:13:14 PM
Its all Dean Koontz's fault

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weird/1244952/coronavirus-eyes-of-darkness-dean-koontz-wuhan-400-biological-weapon-spt
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on February 23, 2020, 06:46:08 PM
Jesus wept. Just read that Express story.

On the same page there's links to stories about:

1) How MH-370 was hijacked and flown exactly along borders to avoid detection, across Nepal which probably doesn't have any radars and then to Kazakhstan.

2) A UFO tracking the International Space Station.

3) Bigfoot seen on traffic CCTV.

4) African locust plague meaning it's the biblical end of the world.

All of a sudden, the Express's editorial policy on how fantastic Brexit will be looks more or less sane by comparison.

Who the f**k reads this shite though?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Not Now Kato on February 23, 2020, 06:48:09 PM
Jesus wept. Just read that Express story.

On the same page there's links to stories about:

1) How MH-370 was hijacked and flown exactly along borders to avoid detection, across Nepal which probably doesn't have any radars and then to Kazakhstan.

2) A UFO tracking the International Space Station.

3) Bigfoot seen on traffic CCTV.

4) African locust plague meaning it's the biblical end of the world.

All of a sudden, the Express's editorial policy on how fantastic Brexit will be looks more or less sane by comparison.

Who the f**k reads this shite though?

Leave voters?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on February 23, 2020, 07:05:47 PM
Long ago my grandad used to pull up at the paper shop in Warmsworth and send me in for a copy of the Express and a packet of Players Navy Cut.

Mind you times were different, the Express was still something like a newspaper and the shop keeper never queried why a kid was regularly buying packets of Players.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on February 23, 2020, 09:46:31 PM
Some extremely concerning comments coming from epidemiology experts.

Head of the WHO saying the window for being able to control the spread is closing. A UK epidemiology professor saying that the spread in South Korea, Iran and Italy is "extremely concerning" and saying "The tipping point after which our ability to prevent a global pandemic ends seems a lot closer after the past 24 hours."

I sense this is going to be a rough few months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: albie on February 24, 2020, 12:09:51 AM
Well, if the predictions are correct, then we have a rough ride ahead;
https://virologydownunder.com/past-time-to-tell-the-public-it-will-probably-go-pandemic-and-we-should-all-prepare-now/

Events like concerts, and football matches, might need to be audience free.
Closed door stadiums, with streaming the only option?

Who will be the first to blink and fess up, with the economic impact to reckon with?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on February 24, 2020, 10:51:17 AM
''Drone captures massive queue for masks in South Korea's Daegu city''

I think I'd pass on that one?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51611422
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on February 24, 2020, 11:07:28 AM
I'm assuming Centreplate have a kiosk handing them out?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on February 24, 2020, 01:09:15 PM
Interesting to see the death rate by age...

COVID-19 - Fatality Rate by AGE:

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.

AGE - DEATH RATE*
80+ years old - 14.8%
70-79 years old - 8.0%
60-69 years old - 3.6%
50-59 years old - 1.3%
40-49 years old - 0.4%
30-39 years old - 0.2%
20-29 years old - 0.2%
10-19 years old - 0.2%
0-9 years old - no fatalities
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on February 24, 2020, 06:22:29 PM
Quote

Attention turns to the markets opening on Monday now, will they start to reflect the growing concern yet, I wonder?

You called that one right RD.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51612520
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on February 25, 2020, 04:22:25 PM
Hall Cross academy in Doncaster asked staff and students who attended the school’s half-term ski trip to Italy to “remain at home and self-isolate for 14 days.

I don't suppose the kids will mind too much about a fortnight off school but what are parents and other family members supposed to do?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on February 25, 2020, 04:59:17 PM
The FTSE has just closed at its lowest point for a year, being lead by the biggest fallers in tourism and aviation.

I think it's fairly safe to say this is a pandemic. It's just a matter of how you define if the virus is under control within a country.

I'll bet there is an uncontrolled outbreak in the UK, probably in greater London before the week is out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rich1471 on February 25, 2020, 05:10:09 PM
Hall Cross academy in Doncaster asked staff and students who attended the school’s half-term ski trip to Italy to “remain at home and self-isolate for 14 days.

I don't suppose the kids will mind too much about a fortnight off school but what are parents and other family members supposed to do?
Don valley have done the same today as well
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on February 25, 2020, 05:36:35 PM
Not looking good in Iran. The WHO seem to think the Govt is massively underplaying the true number of cases. And the Govt appears more interested in blaming "conspiracies and fear-mongering of our enemies" than dealing with the problem. They've refused to seal off infected cities.

If the number of cases in Iran really IS only 95 as they claim, the fact that 16 of those have died is a big worry. Because that's a much higher death rate than anywhere else. And if there really ARE only 95 cases in a country of 80 million people, it's a massive coincidence that one of them is the Minister for Health.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on February 25, 2020, 06:56:30 PM
Whoa!

Apparently only half of the Chinese workforce is currently at work. That's the scale of the effect that Coronavirus is having.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jonathanjosephs/status/1232330952849969152?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1232330952849969152&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Flive%2Fworld-51628990

They are predicting that Chinese GDP growth will only be 3.6% this year. Put that in perspective, it's been between 6.5-15% every year since the early 1990s.

This is going to have massive repercussions for all of our economies.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on February 25, 2020, 07:36:14 PM
Audi have stopped production of their new electric vehicle today, due to a lack of parts from China.

Fiat had to halt production at a plant in Croatia and Italy last week due the same problem.

Jaguar announced they could only keep going for a few weeks until they would need more parts from China. They can't sell a vehicle that is only 95% complete.

Everything is so reliant on the Chinese workshop now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: silent majority on February 25, 2020, 08:04:30 PM
It's impacted massively at my place of work too with large parts of our product offering now out of stock and quoting April before deliveries can begin again.

An internal memo has advised everybody who has been travelling through Italy recently to work from home for the next 14 days.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: big fat yorkshire pudding on February 25, 2020, 10:02:10 PM
The FTSE has just closed at its lowest point for a year, being lead by the biggest fallers in tourism and aviation.

I think it's fairly safe to say this is a pandemic. It's just a matter of how you define if the virus is under control within a country.

I'll bet there is an uncontrolled outbreak in the UK, probably in greater London before the week is out.

Friday was a good time to sell.  Worth a gamble that it will be short lived so maybe not the worst time to buy.

The concern to me on this is if we know the full truth. Is it significantly worse than existing viruses, flus etc?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Pancho Regan on February 26, 2020, 08:45:15 AM
Perversely, this could be a blessing in disguise for Boris.

The damage to our economy caused by Brexit could get lost amidst the damage caused by this virus over coming months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on February 26, 2020, 09:01:32 AM
Austria, Croatia and Switzerland reported their first cases, all in people who recently traveled to Italy.

The EU refuse to close borders when clearly the freedom of movement is enabling this virus to spread much more rapidly.

I think governments including our own have failed to move quickly enough to prevent international travel. Particularly with China in the first month when the outbreak first became visible.

Even now there are aircraft coming into the country from East Asia.

Nothing is going to stop this thing but we could have done more to slow it down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on February 26, 2020, 10:42:45 AM
Nothing is going to stop this thing but we could have done more to slow it down.

The other side (i.e. the non-panic side) is that cases are going down in China.

Even those who've speculated the Chinese state has dramatically underestimated the number cases, still say the number of new cases is going down. So there isn't 'nothing' we can do, clearly.

https://www.ft.com/content/d3d41c7c-56db-11ea-a528-dd0f971febbc
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on February 26, 2020, 11:09:21 AM
I don't think the EU has the power to close a countries border RD, it would surely would be up to each individual coutry to make that move if required.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on February 26, 2020, 11:38:07 AM
I don't think the EU has the power to close a countries border RD, it would surely would be up to each individual coutry to make that move if required.

National governments have the power to implement border controls, Italy, France and Germany have declined to do so. I just think that is irresponsible.

Greece has just announced its first case. A woman travelling from Northern Italy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on February 26, 2020, 11:44:20 AM
Coops.

Yes but China had pretty much shut itself down to get the virus under control. Did you see the link I posted last night? Only 50% of workers are actually at their workplaces.

So yeah, you can control it. But at an eye-watering economic and social cost.

RD. Ditto. You close down borders in an economy as integrated as Europe's and there's an astronomical economic cost. Chances are, that would lead to more deaths in the long run. As we are seeing in this country, when you under perform economically, your life expectancy goes down. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on February 26, 2020, 12:21:26 PM
BST

The idea isn't to close things down in the long run. If they could slow its progress until the weather warms up it might have a tremendous benefit.

There is hope that like the winter flu this thing doesn't like sunlight and so will subside during the summer months.

Slow it down till then and it might give us some breathing space to get a vaccine underway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: adamtherover on February 26, 2020, 12:28:18 PM
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/coronavirus-news-%e2%80%93-live-outbreak-spreads-in-europe-as-major-us-city-declares-emergency-amid-warning-pandemic-a-question-of-when-not-if/ar-BB10pT19?li=BBoPWjQ

if you havnt seen it,  try and get hold of a copy of Contagion,   the matt damon flick from 2012.  It opens your eyes about the ease of how these things spread, plus the sheer panic once folk realise things are out of control. 

if you want to see the last 2 minutes, which is actually the first two minutes, showing how the virus started, here you go.  Probably not a million miles away from whats going on here??

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1HH1-ozS_A
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on February 26, 2020, 01:18:52 PM
BST

The idea isn't to close things down in the long run. If they could slow its progress until the weather warms up it might have a tremendous benefit.

There is hope that like the winter flu this thing doesn't like sunlight and so will subside during the summer months.

Slow it down till then and it might give us some breathing space to get a vaccine underway.

Doesn't have to be a long-run thing to cause massive economic damage. If you close borders for a fortnight, there'll be economic carnage.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on February 26, 2020, 02:57:15 PM
Economic carnage is already underway. It's inevitable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on February 26, 2020, 03:33:01 PM
To be honest right from the outset this outbreak has been characterised by delay and obfuscation. A single unwillingness to accept what is infront of our eyes for fear of what the immediate economic impact might be. Right from the first doctor who flagged up the issue and was silenced by the authorities. There have been opportunities to either stop or slow down the spread and delay has prevented it everytime.

Tonight President Trump is going to address the American nation to tell us all that Coronavirus is just fake news, America is in great shape and generally not to worry. Well, I think we should be worried.

The UK chief medical officer says we should be making efforts to contain and slow the virus because it can't be stopped now, in the hope the change in the seasons will come to our aid. It would be better if governments were taking that advice more seriously.

Everyone is so busy trying to keep calm that I wonder if it hasn't lead to a kind of complacency.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on February 26, 2020, 04:14:46 PM
According to this expert, border closures don't typically work anyway.
https://twitter.com/BBCWorldatOne/status/1232688430255149057?s=20

You have to factor in that we have different societal standards in the West. A couple of years after the SARS outbreak, I was at a conference where the keynote address was given by the Singaporean Health Minister. He set out how they'd controlled SARS when it reached Singapore. They imposed a curfew and required everyone to record their temperature and log it online every day. Anyone with a fever was instructed to stay at home on pain of arrest if they didn't.

He finished off the presentation with a twinkle in his eye and a smirk on his face. He said these measures were very effective and he couldn't see any reason why every country country implement them in future outbreaks. Knowing damn well of course that it would be impossible to do so in the West because we value freedom above collective responsibility.

But yes, if Trump is going to say that tonight, he's even more of a danger to the world than I thought he was.

I too think we should be worried. This is now looking like its not containable and we are going to have a global pandemic. The only question now is, can it be controlled so it's a long, slow thing that doesn't overwhelm health services. I do understand the official advice to stay calm though. If people start realising that we might be facing 1-2% of the population corking it over the next few months, there could be mass panic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on February 26, 2020, 04:18:50 PM
The UK chief medical officer says we should be making efforts to contain and slow the virus because it can't be stopped now.

Is he? I can't find that anywhere. What he is presenting seems to be a far more reasonable assessmen than you suggest

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51635901

if people start realising that we might be facing 1-2% of the population corking it over the next few months, there could be mass panic.

That would presume 100% of the population are going to get the virus! Which is not what the evidence is showing whatsoever.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on February 26, 2020, 04:25:52 PM
Alright Copps, he may not have put it so bluntly but this amounts to the same thing:


Whitty said the alternative scenario was that it was not possible to contain coronairus in China.

“It then starts to spread – possibly initially quite slowly – around the world,” he said.

“Then, at that point, unless the seasons come to our rescue, it’s going to come to a situation where we have it in Europe and in the UK in due course.”

Whitty said the government was currently working to a four-point strategy to deal with the unfolding threat.

“The first one is to contain; the second of these is to delay; the third of these is to do the science and the research; and the fourth is to mitigate so that we can actually brace the NHS,” he said.

The chief medical officer said the government now needed to do “a lot of planning” for its delay tactics.

“If we are going to get an outbreak here in the UK, and this is an ‘if’ not a ‘when’, but if we do, pushing it back into the summer period, away from the winter pressures on the NHS could buy us a bit more time to understand the virus better,” he said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on February 26, 2020, 04:32:38 PM
The UK chief medical officer says we should be making efforts to contain and slow the virus because it can't be stopped now.

Is he? I can't find that anywhere. What he is presenting seems to be a far more reasonable assessmen than you suggest

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51635901

if people start realising that we might be facing 1-2% of the population corking it over the next few months, there could be mass panic.

That would presume 100% of the population are going to get the virus! Which is not what the evidence is showing whatsoever.

I'm quoting a professor of epidemiology at Imperial College who was on Radio 4 PM programme a couple of weeks back. He said that if the disease takes hold, he'd expect 60-70% of the population to be infected, and death rates of maybe 2%. So somewhere between 1-2% of the population dying.

He might be wrong, but you can't assume that he is just because we haven't got mass infections yet. We are in the very early stages of the spread of the disease. So of course, you haven't got mass infection. Yet.

The case of the Diamond Princess is telling. even though they have tried to quarantine everyone by keeping people in their berths, there's still something like 20% of the people on board who have come down with the virus. The death rate hasn't been high, but I'd guess that's because there aren't so many really old people on board, who appear to be the ones particularly vulnerable.

I can imagine that there's going to be some grim calculations going on in the upper echelons of power. Since the fatality rate among under-50s appears to be very low, and only becomes really high when you get into the 70s and 80s, it's not a disease which is likley to severely affect the most economically productive age groups. Does that affect the trade-off between controlling the disease and causing economic damage by imposing lock-downs? In other words, do you accept that the disease isn't controllable, and accept serious numbers of very old people being left exposed by not taking decisions that will badly harm the economy and cause other major problems. Sounds almost sick to be thinking like that, but those in charge of Government policy are weighing up the cost-benefit issues of deciding to save lives or not every day. That's why we don't buy every single drug that is available, or install every imaginable safety system on railways.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Red Baron on February 26, 2020, 04:55:14 PM
I've always thought of cruises as an old person thing, so I'd be surprised if there weren't quite a lot of over-60s on the Diamond Princess.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on February 26, 2020, 04:56:01 PM
I always thought of cruises as hell on earth, and recent events have comfirmed my theory.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on February 26, 2020, 05:09:34 PM
TRB.

The latest figures are that ~3.5% of 60-70 year olds who get Coronavirus die from it.

There's 700 people on that boat who have come down with the virus. 7 have died. 36 are still in a critical or serious condition. So the fatality rate looks to be somewhere a bit north of 1% - possibly as high as 6% if all those who are in a critical/serious condition fail to pull through.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on February 26, 2020, 05:09:58 PM
I always thought of cruises as hell on earth, and recent events have comfirmed my theory.

I think we've found summat we agree on. It was only a matter of time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: albie on February 26, 2020, 05:53:23 PM
I can see the rationale of slowing it down.

Smear the early peak, then regroup for the second wave, when new interventions might be available.

The big question is whether getting infected gives a degree of immunity, or if a second infection becomes more powerful. this is what happened with Spanish Flu, I believe.

Then there is the possibility of mutation...either to weaken or strengthen the virus.

Still, we have the capable Matt Hancock in charge!
That is not cockney rhyming slang btw.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on February 26, 2020, 06:35:57 PM
Matt Hancock was a junior Treasury minister (Correction: he was chosen by George Osborne as an expert advisor on economics,!) at the time that Austerity started. He used to give speeches about the wonders of Expansionary Fiscal Contraction. The idea that cutting Govt spending would cause the economy to roar into life because everyone would feel more confident that the debt was under control.

It was absolute bullshit. No theoretical or empirical evidence to support it at all. But he believed it with a passion.

If he's not changed, I'm expecting him to be ordering a few hundredweight of leeches to cure us of Covid-19. That is not me being silly. It's literally the equivalent.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: idler on February 26, 2020, 07:58:41 PM
I always thought of cruises as hell on earth, and recent events have comfirmed my theory.
You don't know until you have tried it. I never thought that we would but have enjoyed them all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on February 26, 2020, 08:13:03 PM
Apparently one is not a real 'cruiser' until you can name all the boats, packages and costs off the top of ones head according to a rel that can? Idler.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: idler on February 26, 2020, 08:57:47 PM
I've a long way to go yet then Sydney. I was fancying the Baltic and St. Petersburg in June. Not so sure with this Coronavirus now in the mix.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on February 26, 2020, 09:13:58 PM
Got the ferry from Stockholm to Helsinki another from there to Tallin last year which we enjoyed, missed St Petersburg due to big visa cost.

Have never cruised and would be an unlikely starter at this point in time Idler.

norovirus coronovirus possibly monotovirus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: idler on February 26, 2020, 10:22:07 PM
Always plenty to do on a ship Sydney although I must admit P & O is far better than the one we did on a TUI ship.
If you go ashore in Russia and use a Russian Travel tour you don't need a visa.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on February 26, 2020, 11:37:19 PM
(https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2020/02/coal-crash-wsj-2_26_2020.png)

This graph tells you all you need to know about the state of the economy in China. There are lots of other measures people are using to decipher what is going on, there's still a massive drop in traffic levels for instance as measured by TomTom.

It's safe to say, they still aren't able to get people back to work yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: drfchound on February 27, 2020, 08:53:58 AM
I see that the people confined to the hotel in Tenerife are complaining about the lack of good food they have access to.
One woman phoned the BBC and said that for breakfast the hotel gave them jam on toast, for lunch it was cheese on toast and in the evening it was peanut butter on toast.
In its defence a hotel spokesman said that was the only food they could get under the guest room doors.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on February 27, 2020, 10:08:00 AM
I see that the people confined to the hotel in Tenerife are complaining about the lack of good food they have access to.
One woman phoned the BBC and said that for breakfast the hotel gave them jam on toast, for lunch it was cheese on toast and in the evening it was peanut butter on toast.
In its defence a hotel spokesman said that was the only food they could get under the guest room doors.

I think that should be the 'Dark Humour' thread I posted earlier.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Red Baron on February 27, 2020, 10:31:29 AM
Matt Hancock was a junior Treasury minister (Correction: he was chosen by George Osborne as an expert advisor on economics,!) at the time that Austerity started. He used to give speeches about the wonders of Expansionary Fiscal Contraction. The idea that cutting Govt spending would cause the economy to roar into life because everyone would feel more confident that the debt was under control.

It was absolute bullshit. No theoretical or empirical evidence to support it at all. But he believed it with a passion.

If he's not changed, I'm expecting him to be ordering a few hundredweight of leeches to cure us of Covid-19. That is not me being silly. It's literally the equivalent.

"A course of leeches"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T3D6Ecs7VhQ

Blackadder at his finest.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on February 27, 2020, 10:47:17 AM
BBC reporting 14% of people with Corona in China become re-infected. Now thats a worrying one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on February 27, 2020, 11:03:27 AM
BBC reporting 14% of people with Corona in China become re-infected. Now thats a worrying one.

There had to be some reason fit 30 year old doctors in China have been dying. I suspect they must have been victims of a reinfection.

The question is how serious is reinfection and what are the chances of it being fatal?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Red Baron on February 27, 2020, 11:15:38 AM
Apologies if someone has already posted a link to this site.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on February 27, 2020, 11:20:41 AM
The new coronavirus has an HIV-like mutation that means its ability to bind with human cells could be up to 1,000 times as strong as the Sars virus, according to new research by scientists in China and Europe.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3052495/coronavirus-far-more-likely-sars-bond-human-cells-scientists-say
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: drfchound on February 27, 2020, 11:43:29 AM
I see that the people confined to the hotel in Tenerife are complaining about the lack of good food they have access to.
One woman phoned the BBC and said that for breakfast the hotel gave them jam on toast, for lunch it was cheese on toast and in the evening it was peanut butter on toast.
In its defence a hotel spokesman said that was the only food they could get under the guest room doors.

I think that should be the 'Dark Humour' thread I posted earlier.







Hmmmm, maybe but it is corona virus related too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on February 28, 2020, 09:57:22 AM
BBC reporting 14% of people with Corona in China become re-infected. Now thats a worrying one.

Buried deep in the news is evidence from China now that those reinfected are not virulent apparently.

But also a dog has the virus also.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on February 28, 2020, 10:33:53 AM
The way they have dealt with those cases in the Tenerife hotel seems very illogical to me.

It's been widely reported that people are infectious before symptoms emerge. But they've let people leave the hotel if the arrived after the originally infected Italian left.

Which seems barmy. People who were there when the Italian was could have been infected by them but not show symptoms. They could then have infected later arrivers, who have now been allowed to leave because they themselves are showing no symptoms. Sounds like a recipe for spreading it to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on February 28, 2020, 12:18:50 PM
The PM has called an urgent Cobra meeting... For Monday.

Not really taking it seriously is he?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: drfchound on February 28, 2020, 12:36:53 PM
Will Grant McCann be going?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: RobTheRover on February 28, 2020, 12:45:24 PM
I'm puzzled over the RFU's decision to cancel the Ireland v Italy match without any ban then materialising on fans travelling.  There will be 10,000 Italians in Dublin on the lash.  And we know that rugby is a game most popular in Northern Italy, so guess where these fans will mostly be coming from.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Red Baron on February 28, 2020, 12:48:35 PM
As the ban on the game was initiated by the Irish Government rather than the Irish RFU, I guess there will be plans to turn back anyone arriving from Italy. Or does that require too much joined-up thinking?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Ldr on February 28, 2020, 02:40:32 PM
Only surprise for me is that Foxbat hasn't claimed it's all because of Brexit yet
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on February 28, 2020, 06:10:24 PM
Wow. I see the Dow Jones and the FTSE 100 are both down 13% on the week. That is once-a-decade territory.

Now I get why Trump was ranting about the coronavirus not being his fault earlier this week. He rambled on about it being fake news and saying that people should buy shares on the dip. He knows that the stock market is at the end of a long bull market and if this tips into a big rout and possible recession, he's toast in November. And then prosecuted in December, once he's lost the ability to protect himself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on February 28, 2020, 06:26:24 PM
Probably also why Trump was so keen to give Mike Pence complete responsibility for the Coronavirus situation in the States.

He's a great guy, Mike.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on February 28, 2020, 06:32:46 PM
It's more than once in a decade territory BST, markets have never before fallen so fast. Not even at the start of the Great Depression.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on February 28, 2020, 06:35:43 PM
That's not really right RD. It is if you're taking in points terms, but that's not fair. Because the stock markets are worth so much more these days. So you have to look at the percentage fall to be fair.

On Black Monday in 1987, the Dow Jones fell 22% in ONE DAY!

But it does feel like this is big stuff. The Dow Jones has been going through an almost non-stop climb for 11 years. It looks to be hugely over-valued by historical comparisons of sensible average growth. Back in the early 2000s the stock market was massively overvalued due to the dot com bubble. Investors were already twitchy and expecting a fall. It really came after the shock of 9/11. I wonder if Coronavirus might be the catalyst this time.

Not quite a perfect analogy as the US was already in recession when 9/11 happened, but the fall in the DJ over the next few months extended the recession badly hampered what became known as a jobless recovery. The USA isn't in recession right now, but economic growth has been slowing. This panic on the stock market and the effects of coronavirus could easily tip that into outright recession.



Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on February 28, 2020, 06:39:13 PM
Fair enough BST.

Still extraordinary though. What on earth can they do about it? No amount of interest rate cuts and QE is going to get sick and fearful people back to work.

All in all it is very worrying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on February 28, 2020, 08:05:26 PM
Well... I've seen enough.

First thing tomorrow I'm off to Aldi to stock up on dried and tinned food and enough frozen stuff to pack the freezer. And a load of toilet roll, cleaners and disinfectant.

Panic? More like a sensible precaution I think. If there is no problem it will all get used eventually.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BigH on February 28, 2020, 09:15:13 PM
That's not really right RD. It is if you're taking in points terms, but that's not fair. Because the stock markets are worth so much more these days. So you have to look at the percentage fall to be fair.

On Back Monday in 1987, the Dow Jones fell 22% in ONE DAY!

But it does feel like this is big stuff. The Dow Jones has been going through an almost non-stop climb for 11 years. It looks to be hugely over-valued by historical comparisons of sensible average growth. Back in the early 2000s the stock market was massively overvalued due to the dot com bubble. Investors were already twitchy and expecting a fall. It really came after the shock of 9/11. I wonder if Coronavirus might be the catalyst this time.

Not quite a perfect analogy as the US was already in recession when 9/11 happened, but the fall in the DJ over the next few months extended the recession badly hampered what became known as a jobless recovery. The USA isn't in recession right now, but economic growth has been slowing. This panic on the stock market and the effects of coronavirus could easily tip that into outright recession.




Time for a bit of perspective. The stock markets are back to where they were last October so it's hardly as if we're in apocalyptic territory (yet!).

China needs to get GDP growth back to 5%+ (from 4.2% at present) which is why they've taken the actions they have. God, how we'd die for growth like that. But for China it means that the state won't have to intervene to prop up SME lending which would otherwise mean ditching US treasuries which could potentially undermine the US economy.

There's a political element here. If borders end up getting closed then that could make a bad problem worse with trade flows being stopped and trade price inflation as a result. Now that really would hit share prices.





Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on February 28, 2020, 09:27:39 PM
China isn't getting back to anything soon. Their economy has all but ground to a halt.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: big fat yorkshire pudding on February 28, 2020, 10:41:54 PM
That's not really right RD. It is if you're taking in points terms, but that's not fair. Because the stock markets are worth so much more these days. So you have to look at the percentage fall to be fair.

On Black Monday in 1987, the Dow Jones fell 22% in ONE DAY!

But it does feel like this is big stuff. The Dow Jones has been going through an almost non-stop climb for 11 years. It looks to be hugely over-valued by historical comparisons of sensible average growth. Back in the early 2000s the stock market was massively overvalued due to the dot com bubble. Investors were already twitchy and expecting a fall. It really came after the shock of 9/11. I wonder if Coronavirus might be the catalyst this time.

Not quite a perfect analogy as the US was already in recession when 9/11 happened, but the fall in the DJ over the next few months extended the recession badly hampered what became known as a jobless recovery. The USA isn't in recession right now, but economic growth has been slowing. This panic on the stock market and the effects of coronavirus could easily tip that into outright recession.





I dont see it, I still see this as a slight overdue dip but it will quickly regain losses. A good time to buy most likely but there will be some sore investors around at the minute.

Interesting point on the infamous black monday.  Came up time and time again in economics lectures and a perfect opportunity for me to mention it's the day I was born...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on February 28, 2020, 11:24:06 PM
A slight overdue dip?

Are you serious? I mean really?

The whole bloody world is being exposed to a new virus that is spreading fast and is deadly. Never mind the talk of flu. The talk of 2% deaths as if that is not high enough.

Look at it man. Just look at it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on February 28, 2020, 11:43:05 PM
Sometimes I think I'm going mad.

People.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sandy Lane on February 29, 2020, 12:37:30 AM
This whole thing is awful. 

Here in the US we are woefully unprepared. I don’t want to get started, but here is a quick recap.  Trump has now rehired the CDC officials he had gutted from his administration back in 2018, so finally we have some education being provided. But we learned yesterday that any updates from them need to be cleared through VP Pence - so we are unsure whether it will be a watered down version. From the outset Trump has downplayed our cases and initially refused to listen to experts on how to handle ppl returning from affected areas so the California cases were bungled.

Imho If he stepped up to the crisis, put a plan in place, let medical professionals speak freely and showed leadership, we and our financial markets, would be in much better shape. Sadly I heard today that the markets this week are as bad as they were in the 2008 financial crisis.  There has been a lot of criticism of his handling of this from both dems and republicans (thankfully), so hopefully he steps up soon...

It’s also sad to see that Italy has been hit so hard, and my family has cancelled their annual trip. Their economy is going to take a huge hit, but I hope they continue to test and report accurately.  ** Rob, I did read that the English rugby team will be playing against Italy in Rome on the 14th unless there are updates I missed. **

Overall, from what I’ve read I fear this may be going the way of the 1918 Spanish flu which killed millions of people worldwide.  But If there is a silver lining it’s that children seem to be unaffected by this covid-19 virus.  Fingers crossed for all.

Thanks for the above links.  I found them very interesting and helpful, particularly for Italy’s coronavirus numbers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: big fat yorkshire pudding on February 29, 2020, 07:04:33 AM
A slight overdue dip?

Are you serious? I mean really?

The whole bloody world is being exposed to a new virus that is spreading fast and is deadly. Never mind the talk of flu. The talk of 2% deaths as if that is not high enough.

Look at it man. Just look at it.



Erm I wasnt talking about the virus?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on February 29, 2020, 08:18:20 AM
For trying to contain the virus, surely there are empty buildings all over the Country that the Government could requisition to be used as isolation centres
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: selby on February 29, 2020, 10:09:36 AM
  A good time to buy real shares , and short selective shares, most likely to buy as real share at the bottom.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ravenrover on March 01, 2020, 11:21:29 AM
For trying to contain the virus, surely there are empty buildings all over the Country that the Government could requisition to be used as isolation centres
Who do you suggest would care for these people in all these empty buildings?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 01, 2020, 01:49:01 PM
Good news on the virus protection front.

Matt Hancock says there is no need to shut down schools, cancel flights, large gatherings, sporting events or mass transits systems. Just sing God Save the Queen* and it will go away. Magic, thanks Matt! We will soon see who the unpatriotic ones are...

https://twitter.com/bbc5live/status/1234045151883997184

*He did not make it clear if this will work with both versions so I guess you takes your choice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 01, 2020, 02:00:04 PM
Not the most convincing performance was it? Sat there twisting his finger while he spoke, and grinding his teeth while he listened.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 01, 2020, 02:21:44 PM
Losing the battle to contain it, I think.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51697991
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 01, 2020, 06:09:23 PM
For trying to contain the virus, surely there are empty buildings all over the Country that the Government could requisition to be used as isolation centres
Who do you suggest would care for these people in all these empty buildings?

The 50k new nurses 🤪
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 01, 2020, 06:13:12 PM
Brilliant plan floated today by the Govt. We'll deal with this by bringing old doctors back out of retirement.

But.

Hang on.

People in their 70s who catch the virus are thirty times more likely to die than people in their 40s.

So the Govt is saying they expect retired doctors on comfortable pensions to literally risk their lives looking after people who are probably going to recover ok?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 01, 2020, 06:26:08 PM
Come on Billy thats a genius plan.

You either have more people helping with care of patients - or you save a fortune in pensions. Genius from Cummings, I mean Hancock..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: drfchound on March 01, 2020, 06:53:22 PM
I would have thought that people in their seventies were more likely to die than people in their forties anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 01, 2020, 06:57:28 PM
Wilts.

I wish you'd not mention Hancock's name in this context. It's truly terrifying that the nation's health is in the hands of someone whose entire career has been built on nothing but soundbites and having the right friends.

It's been a worry of mine for a long time, that we have a generation of politicians who are pygmies compared to the ones of the past. I guess that's what happens when first rate minds can earn a lot more in jobs where they are not savaged by the Press and ridiculed by people (like, to be fair, I've just done with Hancock.)

The Labour Deputy Leadership election has had me reflecting moodily on this. The big names are Rayner and Burgoyne. I've barely heard of the other three. And I'm a political obsessive.

Compare those two to the Labour Deputy Leadership contenders in 1980. Dennis Healey and Tony Benn. Whatever you think of their politics, they were political heavyweights with generations of serious, deep thinking and holding very high office behind them. And (and I don't think this is irrelevant) experience of service in WWII. Healey especially, was a Major in the Anzio campaign, which, apart from the training in organisation that would have entailed, meant he had experience of decision-making in the most stressful situations.

My fear over the past few years is that we simply don't have politicians of the calibre required to deal with a serious crisis. I think we'll find the answer to that over the rest of this year.

Might help if we had a full-time PM to take control. Johnson thinks of himself as a new Churchill. You reckon Churchill would have vanished for a fortnight while a threat like Coronavirus was growing?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 01, 2020, 06:58:37 PM
I would have thought that people in their seventies were more likely to die than people in their forties anyway.

Well aye. But would you be happy to put yourself in the front line, where, if you catch the virus, your chances of dying within a fortnight are 10-15%?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 02, 2020, 10:27:12 AM
Here's a thought.

The Govt says folk with Coronavirus should self-isolate. Which means, stay off work. Keep your kids off school and (predumably) stay off work to look after them.

How does that work for folk in the gig economy, or just about scraping by in a self-employed job?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bentley Bullet on March 03, 2020, 10:46:47 AM
The old doctors that are planned to be brought out of retirement won't be dealing directly with the virus. The idea is that they treat other conditions, leaving existing younger doctors with more time to deal with patients that are suspected with the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 03, 2020, 10:47:14 AM
Ah. That makes more sense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 03, 2020, 11:44:25 AM
I see Johnson has asked the MSM and social media not to spread false information.

Do you reckon he has ANY sense of irony?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 03, 2020, 11:49:12 AM
This from the BBC about Italy.

"Half of all confirmed coronavirus patients in the country have mild conditions and have been told to stay at home, according to Italian news agency Ansa.

Some 40% are in hospital and only 10% are in intensive care, Ansa reported."

Is that supposed to be re-assuring? ONLY 10% in intensive care? So what happens when 2-3 million people have the infection in a given country? There will ONLY be 250,000 people in intensive care?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Ldr on March 03, 2020, 11:58:18 AM
No that appears to be a statement of fact not an attempt at reassurance mate, happy to help
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 03, 2020, 12:00:18 PM
there wouldn't be room for 10% to go to ICU anywhere in the world there are not enough respirators or beds.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 03, 2020, 12:06:44 PM
No that appears to be a statement of fact not an attempt at reassurance mate, happy to help

Then it's a strange choice to use the word "only". That is a value-loaded word. It's not neutral.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Ldr on March 03, 2020, 12:07:57 PM
I can understand your thoughts there. I just didnt read the same into it. We are definitely wired differently you and i
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 03, 2020, 12:08:06 PM
there wouldn't be room for 10% to go to ICU anywhere in the world there are not enough respirators or beds.

Precisely my point. If 10% of infected people are so ill that they need ICU treatment, that's terrifying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 03, 2020, 12:09:07 PM
I do sometimes wonder if you're on happy pills Ldr. You don't seem phased by the thought of us losing a tenth of our wealth or a tenth of our population!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Ldr on March 03, 2020, 12:11:22 PM
I do sometimes wonder if you're on happy pills Ldr. You don't seem phased by the thought of us losing a tenth of our wealth or a tenth of our population!

I worry about things in my immediate sphere of control. The rest will happen regardless of whether I worry or not so I dont let things get to me mate
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 03, 2020, 12:37:29 PM
The 10% of our wealth WAS in your sphere of influence. You said yourself last night that you weren't massively bothered about that. Although a couple of years ago you did appear to be bothered about us losing a much smaller amount that we weren't actually losing. Seems like strange priorities.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Ldr on March 03, 2020, 12:42:27 PM
Acknowledging that, whilst a member of the eu I massively resented us putting more money in than we got out. Now we are out am comfortable with things that are worrying you as a price to pay for not being still involved. You know my thoughts on the march towards a federal Europe and am at ease with a cost to not be a part of that. Some things are worth more than money to people
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sprotyrover on March 03, 2020, 07:14:42 PM
Evening gang, just been announced that the worst case scenario for Uk could be 80% infected and 1% dead, however in another Breath WHO says death rate is 3.4% .so that's 55 million infected and 550,000 dead one using the WHO figure 1.8 million dead.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 03, 2020, 08:49:04 PM
Yes they used the 3% figure on Channel 4 news this evening for current death rate.

Of course the virus does have a disproportionate effect on the eldery and the UK does have a higher than average aging population.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 03, 2020, 08:57:32 PM
On the flip side, they are thinking that the longer they have to prepare, the better the knowledge will be of how to treat the symptoms, so they expect the death rate to come down over time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 03, 2020, 10:36:13 PM
From Australia.

The CMO has given the latest statistics on infections. He says there are now more than 90,000 cases globally, and 3,078 deaths. Italy has 2,036 cases, Iran 1,501 cases and 66 deaths,

Korea 4,212 cases, France 178, Germany 157. Australia has 40 cases, with 15 in NSW. Brendan Murphy notes again that Iran is likely significantly understating the size of its outbreak.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Donnywolf on March 04, 2020, 06:42:52 AM
Wilts.

I wish you'd not mention Hancock's name in this context. It's truly terrifying that the nation's health is in the hands of someone whose entire career has been built on nothing but soundbites and having the right friends.

It's been a worry of mine for a long time, that we have a generation of politicians who are pygmies compared to the ones of the past. I guess that's what happens when first rate minds can earn a lot more in jobs where they are not savaged by the Press and ridiculed by people (like, to be fair, I've just done with Hancock.)


Got to agree - he is SO BAD I now refer to him as Han-cog as I swear if you watch you can see his cogs (more likely his Cog) whirring. He looked way out of his depth

I have obviously been anti Tory since being of voting age but by god at least some of them in the past HAD nous,and credibility. The current crop of supposed Ministers are exactly the opposite

Well connected sound biters - briefed to the hilt - but often failing to remember what someone had told them

Hang-cog the other morning answered a single question about Corona 3 times - each with a slight twist but each broadly the same answer. His cog was obviously whirring enough to know if you answer the same question "at length" even 3 times then it runs down the clock and they cant ask you many more questions

Agree with BST that these MPs / Cabinet Ministers are the worst I have ever seen or heard since I cant remember when.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Donnywolf on March 04, 2020, 06:53:13 AM
AND on a totally different note

We are told - wash your hands thoroughly for at least 20 seconds. Sing the National Anthem twice to help you get the length of time right

What chance do we have when at a local Garden Centre yesterday a bloke in his 60s comes out of the s*****r and goes straight out without stopping to wash his hands ?

Unlikely he had CV but even without it his contamination was on each door he opened - in the Cafe where he returned to and on everything he touched in the Gift Shop or Bird food Bags and all the other stuff

Of course this is nothing new. Have a pee or worse in Supermarket bogs and march straight out. Lovely looking Granny Smith apple (my favourite) - oh no bit of a cut on it - so scruffy B puts it back and that and evert=ything else the dirty gits touch could impact on a customer who follows them

Sickening
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bentley Bullet on March 04, 2020, 09:19:05 AM
That's the trouble DW, no matter how many times and how long we wash our hands we're only as clean as the dirtiest person when coming out of the toilets.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Donnywolf on March 04, 2020, 09:31:10 AM
Dirty disgusting buggers - keep off my apples !

See a lot of it at Rovers in Bogs. Lots of people (Ill guess 25%) dont bother washing their paws even after a pee and then just leave.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Ldr on March 04, 2020, 01:42:55 PM
Just for perspective. Current uk coronavirus cases 53 (ITV website 04/04/2020) uk population estimate 66,435,600 (ons 2018 mid year estimate, released 26th june 2019) based on those figures an infection rate of 0.00008%
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 04, 2020, 02:06:21 PM
Ldr.

How many cancer cells do you think a person has when the cancer has just started?

How about 1? Then it doubles. And doubles again. And again...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Ldr on March 04, 2020, 02:10:38 PM
Do you just live for the glass to be half empty? Just a statement of current state of play nothing more
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 04, 2020, 02:14:35 PM
No. I live in a world where I go into things with my eyes open.

You reckon I WANT us to lose a tenth of our wealth and a hundredth of our population? Really?

What I want is for people in the country to start listening to folk who know their shit on these things, and start taking action to avoid these outcomes. I suspect I'll end up disappointed though, because we are living in an era where we are being told not to trust experts and to trust their gut instincts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Ldr on March 04, 2020, 02:15:22 PM
80 odd now just announced btw
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 04, 2020, 02:19:56 PM
80 odd now just announced btw

As I keep saying. It's not the  absolute numbers that matter at this stage. It's the rate that it's doubling at. 6 days ago it was about 20. So it's doubling every three days. We HAVE to get that rate down or it's going to be a very bad outcome.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Ldr on March 04, 2020, 02:22:56 PM
Agreed, suspect at this stage panic is more of an issue though, already seeing panic buying in stores
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 04, 2020, 02:32:03 PM
It's not "more" of an issue. There is no issue more important than us doing what we need to do to stop this spreading so fast.

Washing hands. Covering face when you sneeze. Avoid unnecessary contact and crowds. 

Simple stuff. Which is why it was so depressing to see our PM yesterday boasting that he'd been going round shaking hands with staff at a virus isolation ward. d**khead that he is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: drfchound on March 04, 2020, 04:32:32 PM
BST, will you be going to any football matches over the next few weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: selby on March 04, 2020, 05:17:42 PM
  29 of the thirty four announced today have a direct link to foreign travel either themselves or an associate mostly to Italy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: selby on March 04, 2020, 05:50:05 PM
  Like Israel we should be putting restrictions on travel to some EU and foreign countries
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: knockers on March 04, 2020, 05:50:17 PM
Pretty much every person that goes in the west stand bogs walks straight out. We’ve no chance of getting this type of person to change their filthy routine.
Unfortunately this is the world we live in and you’ve just got to look after yourself!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 04, 2020, 06:16:09 PM
BST, will you be going to any football matches over the next few weeks.

Probably not Hound. I'm not here for the Wimbledon match. Next home game is early April and we might be in a different place by then.

Like, 13th.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 04, 2020, 06:17:43 PM
  Like Israel we should be putting restrictions on travel to some EU and foreign countries

Except it doesn't work. Research shows that if you stop 99% of travellers, it only delays the peak of an outbreak by a week or two. But granted, it does appeal to folk who want to blame foreigners.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 04, 2020, 06:19:00 PM
And in the meantime, the economic costs are collosal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 04, 2020, 06:41:18 PM
Urge everyone to continue listenting to the experts very closely. Including the two professors on the video in this link.

These figures such as 80% infected and 1% mortality rate really need to be situated in a lot lot of context.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/world/deaths-from-covid-19-more-likely-among-the-elderly-985520.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: big fat yorkshire pudding on March 04, 2020, 07:41:14 PM
I'm still not too concerned but we shouldn't be flippant that it's ok to lose the elderly or people with existing conditions. It has profound impacts for us all and we are right to be wary.

Equally the balance between control and economics is huge as the indirect effect from that could end up far bigger.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 04, 2020, 08:05:28 PM
CiM.

Agreed, the 80% figure is the top end.

But in a normal flu outbreak, apparently 15% of the population catch flu. And that is an infection that we have some degree of natural immunity to.

As I say, the 60% figure I've mentioned was quoted by Neil Ferguson as a reasonable estimate. He said back in February "Given how transmissible this virus appears to be and the fact that at least all adults can be infected – we have much less data in children – then 60% is a reasonable figure for the epidemic size."

In fairness, he did say that it was difficult to predict at this stage.

60% of the population is, of course "a lot lower than 80%" so that's not contradicting Chris Whitty's words yesterday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 04, 2020, 08:46:12 PM
This is one such expert .............

''Whitty’s calm and measured approach, a prerequisite for any professional dealing in evidence, seems to have come as a shock to some commentators in the Westminster bubble. “He is properly impressive,” one journalist told the website Politico''

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/04/prof-chris-whitty-the-expert-we-need-in-the-coronavirus-crisis
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nudga on March 04, 2020, 10:15:41 PM
It's all f**kin bullshit. Big Pharma gonna make a packet out of vaccinating the young.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Red Baron on March 05, 2020, 10:29:09 AM
It's not "more" of an issue. There is no issue more important than us doing what we need to do to stop this spreading so fast.

Washing hands. Covering face when you sneeze. Avoid unnecessary contact and crowds. 

Simple stuff. Which is why it was so depressing to see our PM yesterday boasting that he'd been going round shaking hands with staff at a virus isolation ward. d**khead that he is.

I think the one about hand-shaking in the hospital might be one of Boris's "tall tales." Even if he'd wanted to shake hands with everyone I doubt many medical staff would be willing to do so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 05, 2020, 10:33:26 AM
TRB

Maybe. But it's telling about his psyche. All bravado and front.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: turnbull for england on March 05, 2020, 10:45:29 AM
He will be feeding his kids a wrestlers water burger next  ( John gummer?)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ravenrover on March 05, 2020, 12:55:29 PM
Love this
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 05, 2020, 01:07:40 PM
Parliament could be shut down until September, Coronavirus is a blessing for these set of corrupt bas**rds
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 05, 2020, 01:44:32 PM
Filo

That just means the Govt can operate with no scrutiny.

That is something to be highly worried about when you have the likes of Cummings, Johnson, Raab and Patel running the country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Red Baron on March 05, 2020, 03:01:17 PM
Parliament could be shut down until September, Coronavirus is a blessing for these set of corrupt bas**rds

Surely Parliament is the last place to be shutting down (as in, you shut just about anything else down first).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: drfchound on March 05, 2020, 04:11:41 PM
Parliament could be shut down until September, Coronavirus is a blessing for these set of corrupt bas**rds







Don’t MPs of all parties attend a Parliament.
I am guessing they are all under that same label Filo.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: selby on March 05, 2020, 05:18:17 PM
It looks like London is doing the same with this as everything else and keeping most of it for themselves.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 05, 2020, 05:35:06 PM
Parliament could be shut down until September, Coronavirus is a blessing for these set of corrupt bas**rds







Don’t MPs of all parties attend a Parliament.
I am guessing they are all under that same label Filo.

No not at all, the ones touting shutting parliament down are the same ones that tried twice last year, only this time theres no stopping them if they choose to do that, like BST says there will be no scrutiny then!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: albie on March 05, 2020, 05:50:19 PM
For those who like a bit more science in the explanation;
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615317/gene-sleuths-are-tracking-the-coronavirus-outbreak-as-it-happens/

This is looking difficult given the potential for re-infection and re-introduction. The extent of mutation is going to be a problem.

I reckon public gatherings are going to be closed in the near future. What that means for pubs, restaurants and the High St is very serious.

A key question is how long it will take to reach the peak infection across the population.....the difference between 1 month and 3 months is very important in terms of the restrictive measures taken.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bentley Bullet on March 05, 2020, 05:54:24 PM
Parliament could be shut down until September, Coronavirus is a blessing for these set of corrupt bas**rds







Don’t MPs of all parties attend a Parliament.
I am guessing they are all under that same label Filo.

No not at all, the ones touting shutting parliament down are the same ones that tried twice last year, only this time theres no stopping them if they choose to do that, like BST says there will be no scrutiny then!

There's no stopping them if they don't shut down parliament. They have no opposition!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Colemans Left Hook on March 06, 2020, 01:20:54 AM
personally i think they (the government) want to get the other side of the Cheltenham Festival before action is taken   :thumbdown:
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 06, 2020, 09:26:08 AM
We are going to have to cross our collective fingers and really hope that the government is across this virus (unlike it shambolic preparations to a no-deal brexit) as Polly Tonybee quoted in her column.

''Tim Cook, an ICU doctor, writing in the Guardian, gave a graphic picture of the lack of intensive care and critical care beds – Britain ranking 23rd out of 31 countries for provision, and almost bottom for the number of hospital beds overall''

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 06, 2020, 10:36:18 AM
I'm not sure this side of the crisis is the right time to be digging into the politics.

This is the time for the whole country getting ready to ride out the biggest crisis since the War.

Once it's over, THEN it's time to look into whether our political decisions over the past 50 years have undermined our resilience to this sort of crisis.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Ldr on March 06, 2020, 10:44:11 AM
To add a little further to the sensationalist story from the icu doctor in the Guardian.

https://twitter.com/AndyWelch13/status/1234830642719920129?s=19
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 06, 2020, 10:52:50 AM
Ldr.

Anyone who is blithely saying the NHS is ready for this is just as culpable to be honest.

Did you hear Chris Whitty yesterday? He said to the Parliament Select Committe that when this crisis breaks, they expect 50% of the infections to come over a 3 week period. The minimum total number of infections I've heard people talking about is 15% of the population, or about 10million people.

So that's a minimum of 5million people catching this over a 3 week period at the peak of the epidemic.

And in Italy, they are reporting that 10% of cases are having serious effects.

So that's half a million people becoming seriously ill over a 3 week period.

No health service, anywhere, ever in history is equipped to deal with those sorts of numbers while still functioning anything like normally.

This is why it is so important to limit the spread and try to reduce the total numbers. Washing hands a lot, avoiding unnecessary contact etc. And when the tsunami does come, listening to official advice about isolating ourselves.

This is likely to come very quickly. Sometime between the end of April and the middle of June. We have very little time to start psychologically preparing ourselves for the changes in lifestyle that we are going to need to implement very quickly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Ldr on March 06, 2020, 10:54:30 AM
Forgive me, I'll take the opinion of the medical director of one of the largest NHS trusts in the country over you at this stage mate
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 06, 2020, 11:14:03 AM
I'm not sure this side of the crisis is the right time to be digging into the politics.

This is the time for the whole country getting ready to ride out the biggest crisis since the War.

Once it's over, THEN it's time to look into whether our political decisions over the past 50 years have undermined our resilience to this sort of crisis.

fair comment
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 06, 2020, 11:23:22 AM
Forgive me, I'll take the opinion of the medical director of one of the largest NHS trusts in the country over you at this stage mate
Maybe you're right Ldr. Maybe he's been planning for this and they've got a pop up hospital oven ready, with a million ICU beds and 5 million staff.

If so, I'm going to look a right idiot in a few weeks time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Ldr on March 06, 2020, 11:27:00 AM
Forgive me, I'll take the opinion of the medical director of one of the largest NHS trusts in the country over you at this stage mate
Maybe you're right Ldr. Maybe he's been planning for this and they've got a pop up hospital oven ready, with a million ICU beds and 5 million staff.

If so, I'm going to look a right idiot in a few weeks time.

Mate, I suspect somewhere between the two extremes will be the eventual outcome. I look forward to buying you a pint at some stage in less troubled times
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 06, 2020, 11:32:59 AM
Between what two extremes?

Look at the numbers I set out above. That is the minimum scenario. 15% infection rate is what we get in a typical flu epidemic. And this is far more virulent than simple flu.

If the bloke you quoted is saying that the NHS has plans for how to operate in this crisis, I'm sure he's right. It would be the biggest dereliction of duty if they didn't.

If he's saying those plans are just to carry on working as normal, and that they'd be able to treat appropriately everyone who needs treatment, he's away with the fairies. And pointedly, that is absolutely NOT what Chris Whitty has been saying recently.

Look. There's no point in panicking. But the sort of complacency you are showing WILL lead to a lot more people dying if it is widespread throughout the country.

This is coming. It's going to be massive. And it's going to come very, very quickly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 06, 2020, 11:54:55 AM
Here's a run-down on the plan

Explained: UK's coronavirus action plan
What the government’s measures to fight the spread of Covid-19 mean in practice

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/03/explained-uk-coronavirus-action-plan

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nudga on March 06, 2020, 01:18:29 PM
Here's my simplistic view. Don't believe the propaganda being spewed out by mainstream media channels, don't panic and live life as normal.
There's something not right with this and I bet a pound to a pinch of shit that someone will make billions out of it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 06, 2020, 01:28:20 PM
Nudga mate.

That's dangerous b*llocks. This is real and it's very serious. We haven't had a threat like this since the days of the Luftwaffe. If folk don't pay attention,they are going to cause 10s maybe 100s of thousands of unnecessary deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 06, 2020, 01:32:08 PM
I'm not sure this side of the crisis is the right time to be digging into the politics.

This is the time for the whole country getting ready to ride out the biggest crisis since the War.

Once it's over, THEN it's time to look into whether our political decisions over the past 50 years have undermined our resilience to this sort of crisis.

fair comment

Saying that, when the key minister is simply lying about Govt preparedness, it doesn't help does it?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-51769184

Politics has become too much about managing public opinion. That sounded like what Hancock was doing last night. If that's the best he can do, he needs removing while we still have time, and replacing with someone with a track record of crisis management, even if they are not an MP.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: big fat yorkshire pudding on March 06, 2020, 02:23:27 PM
I'm not sure this side of the crisis is the right time to be digging into the politics.

This is the time for the whole country getting ready to ride out the biggest crisis since the War.

Once it's over, THEN it's time to look into whether our political decisions over the past 50 years have undermined our resilience to this sort of crisis.

fair comment

Saying that, when the key minister is simply lying about Govt preparedness, it doesn't help does it?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-51769184

Politics has become too much about managing public opinion. That sounded like what Hancock was doing last night. If that's the best he can do, he needs removing while we still have time, and replacing with someone with a track record of crisis management, even if they are not an MP.

Actually you'd argue it's acceptable to attempt to calm down panic buying wouldn't you?  The more the media ramp up there may be a problem the bigger people hoard and then we end up running out of things.....
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 06, 2020, 03:26:06 PM
BFYP.

Yes. Calming down panic buying is a sensible thing to do.

But lying to do that is bleeding stupid. That doesn't calm anyone down. That gives the impression of a Govt that is out of its depth.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Red Baron on March 06, 2020, 04:11:11 PM
One thing I've noticed is how few cases there appear to be in the Southern Hemisphere. It may be a reporting/ testing issue, although you'd think every country will be on the alert for Coronavirus. Or it is possible that the weather does make a big difference to the spread of it.

Here's hoping for an early and warm spring!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nudga on March 06, 2020, 04:16:17 PM
Nudga mate.

That's dangerous b*llocks. This is real and it's very serious. We haven't had a threat like this since the days of the Luftwaffe. If folk don't pay attention,they are going to cause 10s maybe 100s of thousands of unnecessary deaths.


BST, we've had bird flu, swine flu and the Sars virus.
All forgotten, has anybody had them since they came out?

Those virus's failed what they were intended to do, we didn't have the social media back then like we do now.
I wouldn't even trust any of the figures of illness banded about.

So let's stop footballers from shaking hands, those same footballers who are gozzing all over the pitch every 2 minutes.
Those samed footballers screaming in each others faces and sweating all over the place.
Mr Murdoch wouldn't be happy if his shit show go the plug pulled.

Seria A. Let's play the game behind closed doors.
Yeah cos the footballers, match officials, media, ground staff, club officials can't catch the virus and pass it on can they?

Some lucky Kitson is going to get a nice wedge of this £47 million "research" money.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 06, 2020, 04:20:23 PM
I suspect it's a bit of all of that TRB. Plus, probably the biggest issue is that there's simply less travel from most Southern hemisphere countries because most of them are relatively poor and the distances and costs of travel are so great. Australia has as many cases as us, proportionate to the population, so that would support the wealth/travel hypothesis.

The fascinating case is Russia. Only 6 cases there apparently. In a country where there is loads of travel to Italy. (I once waited 8 hours for a late flight at Naples airport. While I was waiting, 14 other flights landed: 7 of them from Russia. I can't begin to imagine what's the connection between Russia and Naples...)

Anyway. Looks like Putin really IS the great Czar protecting his people...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 06, 2020, 04:31:17 PM
Nudga.

SARS was contained and stopped from spreading by draconian isolation measures. So it only infected a few 1000 people in a handful of countries before it was stopped. The horse has bolted on that one with Covid-19. It's already infected 100,000+ in 100 countries and that number is growing by 300 cases a day.


The swine flu pandemic in 2009 only had a fatality rate of of about 0.05%. It still infected a billion people and killed several hundred thousand worldwide. And we had some basic immunity to that.

We've got zero immunity to Covid-19. And it looks like having a fatality rate 20 times that of Swine Flu. You could easily be looking at 3-4billion people worldwide catching this and 10-50million people worldwide dying of it. And quickly - that is the problem. When it catches hold in a country, if we follow what you are saying and do bugger all about it, it will rip through the population like a dose of salts and it will overwhelm the health services.

What you are saying is that you don't trust politicians. I get that, although I don;t agree that all politicians are liars. But it's not politicians who are raising the concerns on this. It's their chief scientific advisers. Who have career long track records of providing correct expert advice, and who stand to lose their reputations and their jobs if they get shit like this wrong.

You HAVE to take this seriously. It is a f**king enormous threat. I'm telling you, if everybody takes your attitude, this is going to be a catastrophe. It's perfectly possible that a quarter of a million people in the UK will die in a fortnight a few months down the line unless we get control of this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nudga on March 06, 2020, 04:58:55 PM
OK, no problem with your view at all Billy.
Watch this space though, the world's police and saviours (the USA) will find a miracle vaccination Big Pharma will make billions, oh, and that NHS back door for the USofA has just opened a little bit more.

Yes, I am very, very cynical with this world.

Power, greed, money, propaganda, control.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 06, 2020, 05:27:59 PM
And the Y2K virus came to nothing  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 06, 2020, 06:01:45 PM
OK, no problem with your view at all Billy.
Watch this space though, the world's police and saviours (the USA) will find a miracle vaccination Big Pharma will make billions, oh, and that NHS back door for the USofA has just opened a little bit more.

Yes, I am very, very cynical with this world.

Power, greed, money, propaganda, control.

Nudga.

There is no possibility whatsoever of anyone developing a vaccine quickly enough to get control of this. The vaccine is going to be there to give people immunity for later waves of Covid19. But it won't be ready for a year at least.

The carnage this thing is going to do will be played out round the world sometime between April and Xmas, depending on how quickly it spreads. The way it's spreading in the UK at the moment, the peak would hit us in about 5-6 weeks. I suspect it will slow down, but it will still be sometime in the next 3-4 months. So there ain't going to be a vaccine to save people. The one and only chance we've got to control this bas**rd is all of us listening to expert advice and doing what they tell us to do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nudga on March 06, 2020, 06:19:47 PM
OK, no problem with your view at all Billy.
Watch this space though, the world's police and saviours (the USA) will find a miracle vaccination Big Pharma will make billions, oh, and that NHS back door for the USofA has just opened a little bit more.

Yes, I am very, very cynical with this world.

Power, greed, money, propaganda, control.

Nudga.

There is no possibility whatsoever of anyone developing a vaccine quickly enough to get control of this. The vaccine is going to be there to give people immunity for later waves of Covid19. But it won't be ready for a year at least.

The carnage this thing is going to do will be played out round the world sometime between April and Xmas, depending on how quickly it spreads. The way it's spreading in the UK at the moment, the peak would hit us in about 5-6 weeks. I suspect it will slow down, but it will still be sometime in the next 3-4 months. So there ain't going to be a vaccine to save people. The one and only chance we've got to control this bas**rd is all of us listening to expert advice and doing what they tell us to do.


Like not shaking hands when we play football and then washing them.
OK.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 06, 2020, 06:34:48 PM
BFYP.

Yes. Calming down panic buying is a sensible thing to do.

But lying to do that is bleeding stupid. That doesn't calm anyone down. That gives the impression of a Govt that is out of its depth.

Such as this?

''On Thursday, Matt Hancock said: "We are working with the supermarkets to make sure that, if people are self-isolating, then we will be able to get the food and supplies that they need."

But supermarket sources said they had not discussed getting food to homes.

One executive said he was "baffled" by the suggestions.

An executive told BBC business editor Simon Jack: "Matt Hancock has totally made up what he said about working with supermarkets. We haven't heard anything from government directly."

He added that sales of cupboard basics such as pasta and tinned goods have "gone through the roof".''

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51769184
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BigH on March 06, 2020, 08:10:21 PM
Italy, 24 Feb:

124 cases, 2 deaths

5 Mar:

3089 cases, 107 deaths

Hubei, 20 Jan

258 cases, 3 deaths

30 Jan

c6500 cases, c160 deaths

So from where we are now, will be interesting to see what the situation looks like in 10 days time. A clue to the trajectory thereafter?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 06, 2020, 09:27:59 PM
This feels to me like a Very Bad Sign.

https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3074050/coronavirus-us-secretary-state-mike-pompeos-wuhan-virus

There are all sorts of indications that the Trump administration is botching the handling of the virus outbreak.

The fact that they are now calling it Wuhan Virus feels like they are already into Blame Mode.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 06, 2020, 09:35:39 PM
What else can we expect from these overblown delinquents
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ravenrover on March 06, 2020, 09:45:20 PM
Self isolate if you have the symptoms? How do you know? Could it just be flu? Way over the top at this stage, what happens when it hits Africa, that might be the time to worry JMHO
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rich1471 on March 06, 2020, 10:21:41 PM
second person died in Milton Keynes hospital 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nudga on March 06, 2020, 10:29:46 PM
This feels to me like a Very Bad Sign.

https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3074050/coronavirus-us-secretary-state-mike-pompeos-wuhan-virus

There are all sorts of indications that the Trump administration is botching the handling of the virus outbreak.

The fact that they are now calling it Wuhan Virus feels like they are already into Blame Mode.

Increase the panic, change the name to demonise a race /country.

Step 2 complete. Now the propaganda will be in over drive.


Step 3. No one is talking about Brexit and Prince Andrew and Trumps clandestine meetings with Russian officials.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: 5minstogo on March 06, 2020, 10:46:57 PM
Nice lady walked into Mexborough Surgery and declared she had symptoms causing mild panic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rtid88 on March 06, 2020, 10:56:55 PM
second person died in Milton Keynes hospital 
Somebody who was old and again already ill!
I'm with Nudga on this, I'm not getting swept up in all of the media hype!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: DonnyOsmond on March 06, 2020, 11:06:58 PM
Media hype? I think most places have mostly presented the facts. It's massively contagious, lives on surfaces potentially for days, so cover your mouth when you cough and make sure you then wash before touching anything.

For someone healthy to get it you'll more than likely be fine but someone elderly or someone with underlying health concerns might not do great. WHO said the mortality rate is 3.4% which is lower than the flu but how contagious it is is the main issue.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 06, 2020, 11:24:24 PM
This feels to me like a Very Bad Sign.

https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3074050/coronavirus-us-secretary-state-mike-pompeos-wuhan-virus

There are all sorts of indications that the Trump administration is botching the handling of the virus outbreak.

The fact that they are now calling it Wuhan Virus feels like they are already into Blame Mode.

Increase the panic, change the name to demonise a race /country.

Step 2 complete. Now the propaganda will be in over drive.


Step 3. No one is talking about Brexit and Prince Andrew and Trumps clandestine meetings with Russian officials.

Nudga.

No way in a million years does Trump want this blowing up. If there's one thing guaranteed to lose him the election in November, it's the US government looking hopeless as 3million Americans cork it this summer. That's why they are starting the blame game. Blame it on the Chinese. Stir up xenophobia and deflect attention from their own shortcomings.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 07, 2020, 01:56:08 AM
Peak stupidity brought to you by an Australian Doctor.

Victorian health authorities are trying to contact about 70 patients of a Melbourne doctor who has developed coronavirus after returning from the US

The doctor is the state’s 11th case of the novel coronavirus and the state health minister, Jenny Mikakos, says he attended work and treated patients after her was symptomatic.

“I have to say I am flabbergasted that a doctor that has flulike symptoms has presented to work,” Mikakos said.

“He became unwell with a runny nose on an internal flight from Denver to San Francisco on February 27, US time, then flew to from San Francisco to Melbourne on United Airlines flight UA60, arriving at approximately 9.30am Saturday 29 February.”

The doctor saw approximately 70 patients last week between Monday 2 March and Friday 6 March at the Toorak Clinic on Malvern Road. The clinic has been since closed.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/07/flabbergasted-melbourne-doctor-with-coronavirus-symptoms-continued-seeing-patients
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 07, 2020, 12:29:17 PM
I agree with others who have pointed out that panicking is far far more dangerous than the virus itself. Look at pretty much every contemporary famine - caused by panicking - stockpiling, hoarding, redistributing food unevenly, price hikes etc. and never actually a dramatic reduction in food production itself. Panicking will also put undue stress on healthcare systems and detract from those who genuinely need the care.

I have been trying to keep up with some of latest science behind the virus. Its extremely difficult, the first results you get on google are all media - msnbc, nbc etc. that is pretty terrible for humanity, I feel, that

Anyway:

I would urge people to find information for themselves: Go to scientific journal websites (lancet etc.) - most of it is now increasingly open access and easily understandable. Search for Youtube channels from experts/doctors also.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 07, 2020, 12:50:43 PM
All good advice Coops.

And let's hope the 0.6% mortality rate is right. (Although even if it is, and even if the rate of infection is no bigger than a normal flu pandemic - both of which are on the optimistic side - that's still 10million deaths worldwide and 100,000 in the UK.

My point, constantly, has been not about panicking. It's been about taking sensible, obvious precautions.

I've just been to CostCo to do our monthly big shop. Just seen a middle aged bloke sneeze all over a display of washing powder that folk are going to be picking up. That's disgusting behaviour at the best of times. In the current circumstances, it is appalling. But you will get a strain of idiots being prepared to do that if they think this is all overblown.

We have to make that sort of behaviour as unacceptable as smoking in front of kids. And we have about a month to do it. Which is why I'm getting so fraught with the "meh" brigade.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: adamtherover on March 07, 2020, 01:05:40 PM
Comments from a disease specialist..

I'm a doctor and an Infectious Diseases Specialist. I've been at this for more than 20 years seeing sick patients on a daily basis. I have worked in inner city hospitals and in the poorest slums of Africa. HIV-AIDS, Hepatitis,TB, SARS, Measles, Shingles, Whooping cough, Diphtheria...there is little I haven't been exposed to in my profession. And with notable exception of SARS, very little has left me feeling vulnerable, overwhelmed or downright scared.

I am not scared of Covid-19. I am concerned about the implications of a novel infectious agent that has spread the world over and continues to find new footholds in different soil.  I am rightly concerned for the welfare of those who are elderly, in frail health or disenfranchised who stand to suffer mostly, and disproportionately, at the hands of this new scourge. But I am not scared of Covid-19.

What I am scared about is the loss of reason and wave of fear that has induced the masses of society into a spellbinding spiral of panic, stockpiling obscene quantities of anything that could fill a bomb shelter adequately in a post-apocalyptic world. I am scared of the N95 masks that are stolen from hospitals and urgent care clinics where they are actually needed for front line healthcare providers and instead are being donned in airports, malls, and coffee lounges, perpetuating even more fear and suspicion of others. I am scared that our hospitals will be overwhelmed with anyone who thinks they " probably don't have it but may as well get checked out no matter what because you just never know..." and those with heart failure, emphysema, pneumonia and  strokes will pay the price for overfilled ER waiting rooms with only so many doctors and nurses to assess.

I am scared that travel restrictions will become so far reaching that weddings will be canceled, graduations missed and family reunions will not materialize. And well, even that big party called the Olympic Games...that could be kyboshed too. Can you even
imagine?

I'm scared those same epidemic fears will limit trade, harm partnerships in multiple sectors, business and otherwise and ultimately culminate in a global recession.

But mostly, I'm scared about what message we are telling our kids when faced with a threat. Instead of reason, rationality, openmindedness and altruism, we are telling them to panic, be fearful, suspicious, reactionary and self-interested.

Covid-19 is nowhere near over. It will be coming to a city, a hospital, a friend, even a family member near you at some point. Expect it.  Stop waiting to be surprised further. The fact is the virus itself will not likely do much harm when it arrives. But our own behaviors and "fight for yourself above all else" attitude could prove disastrous.

I implore you all. Temper fear with reason, panic with patience and uncertainty with education. We have an opportunity to learn a great deal about health hygiene and limiting the spread of innumerable transmissible diseases in our society. Let's meet this challenge together in the best spirit of compassion for others, patience, and above all, an unfailing effort to seek truth, facts and knowledge as opposed to conjecture, speculation and catastrophizing.

Facts not fear. Clean hands. Open hearts.
Our children will thank us for it.

#washurhands #geturflushot #respect #patiencenotpanic
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 07, 2020, 01:10:30 PM
Can't argue with any of that Adam.

There's a flipsude though. Panic is one enemy. Complacency is at least as big an enemy.heres the words of the head of the WHO, who we should probably listen to more than anyone.

"Ultimately, how deadly this virus will be depends not only on the virus itself, but on how we respond to it.

This is a serious disease. It is not deadly to most people, but it can kill.

We’re all responsible for reducing our own risk of infection, and if we’re infected, for reducing our risk of infecting others.

There’s something all of us can do to protect vulnerable people in our communities.

That’s why we keep talking about solidarity.

This is not just a threat for individual people, or individual countries.

We’re all in this together, and we can only save lives together."
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 07, 2020, 02:21:09 PM
Germany appears to have a fairly robust healthcare system

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Healthcare_in_Germany
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 07, 2020, 10:26:41 PM
Watch this.
https://www.channel4.com/news/this-is-the-most-frightening-disease-ive-ever-encountered-virus-expert-dr-richard-hatchett

Pass it round among everyone you know. And for Christ's sake, please convince everyone you know to take this seriously.

Stop looking out for reasons to ignore this. Start taking it seriously right now. Like this man says, and like the head of the WHO says, the ONLY way we are going to control the effects of this is by every single one of us doing whatever we can do to minimise transmission. If you don't engage with that, more people WILL die. It's that simple.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nudga on March 07, 2020, 10:50:34 PM
I got as far as he's getting £20 million. Of course he's going to peddle the frightening bed time stories, he's f**kin minted now.
What did I say about people making money out of this.
This is just the start.
He worked in the Bush administration FFS.
The same administration that found a couple of passports from a twisted, burning reckage of two fallen skyscrapers to set off a chain of events that's f**ked the world over to probably be never repaired again.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 07, 2020, 11:11:30 PM
f**king hell Nudga. I always had you down as someone with his head screwed on. But they've got you haven't they? You've gone full David Icke.

You reckon they've given him £20m to buy a super yacht? It's gone to his organisation, which is one of the ones that helps save us from the shite that Mother Nature chucks at us.

People like him are what keep us from sinking into a suspicious, pestilence-ridden existence. And right now, listening to him will help save countless lives worldwide. If you insist on it all being a con, YOU are to blame when this thing gets out of control.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 08, 2020, 12:22:10 AM
Like I keep saying. Get ready for massive changes in lifestyle.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51787238

We'll be where Italy now is within 2-3 weeks if our cases keep on doubling every other day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nudga on March 08, 2020, 05:27:20 AM
f**king hell Nudga. I always had you down as someone with his head screwed on. But they've got you haven't they? You've gone full David Icke.

You reckon they've given him £20m to buy a super yacht? It's gone to his organisation, which is one of the ones that helps save us from the shite that Mother Nature chucks at us.

People like him are what keep us from sinking into a suspicious, pestilence-ridden existence. And right now, listening to him will help save countless lives worldwide. If you insist on it all being a con, YOU are to blame when this thing gets out of control.


Oh wow, so for the first time in what, 10 or 12 years I don't agree with what you've post and you belittle me and liken me to David Icke and then BLAME me or people like me.

Well I blame you and sensationalist doom mongers like you that have been raping the super markets like we're heading for a f**kin Zombie apocalypse.

f**k it, I'll go David Icke on you again and tell you that I believe its NOT "mother nature" at work here.
Some daft Kitson has let the cat out of the bag.

But "they've" got you haven't "they" BST.

I'll raise your David Icke and give you The Media Machine.

And no, I don't believe he's got the full £20 mill to buy a yacht, of course some of it will go to "research" but he's gonna do well out of it.

Cancer is a bigger killer than this poxy flu virus but we're still processing and eating shit food that can lead to cancer and are going full steam into 5g, great idea that.

In years gone by, governments would have tried to keep a lid on this as much as they could so as not to cause national panic.
It just doesn't add up to me. So if you're just going to try and make me look stupid for being a free thinker and having a totally different take on it than you, then we'll just agree to disagree and leave it here and crack on and have a laugh in a different thread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 08, 2020, 11:34:36 AM
Nudga.

1) Flu viruses have always mutated. They've caused epidemics throughout history. This is no different.

2) I agree that there are plenty of other things that kill lots of people.

3) None of that changes how dangerous this is. This WILL overwhelm the NHS for a month or more if we don't get it under control.

Forgive me for responding aggressively, but frankly I'm frightened about the extent of the damage this is going to do to our country if we don't start taking it seriously and addressing our behaviour.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 08, 2020, 12:36:38 PM
This from the BBC website.

Quote
The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.

"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.

"One of the best health systems in the world, in Lombardy, is a step away from collapse," he said.

This is what is around the corner for us if we don't take some serious steps now. We have 2-3 weeks at current growth rates until we have a similar situation here.

Take. It. Seriously.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 08, 2020, 09:04:11 PM
San Marino is going to be an interesting case.

They have by far the highest infection rate in the world at present - 36 cases in a population of 33,000. That's 6 times the rate of South Korea and 8 times the rate of Italy. So it's like they are a week or so ahead of anywhere else in the world. So we might see from their numbers how this is going to progress.

Even better case might be Iceland. 55 cases in a population about the size of DMBC. That's about the same infection rate as South Korea.

They have the geographical position and financial clout to isolate themselves effectively. And a high quality health service. It'll be interesting to see how it progresses there. Can they contain it? And if they don't, how rapidly does it spread and how many people does it end up killing?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 08, 2020, 09:12:33 PM
Doncaster has zero cases at the moment
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 08, 2020, 09:29:30 PM
I've just received an e-mail from the son of the former Foreign Minister of Nigeria.

Apparently his dad managed to stash away extremely rare and valuable goods before he was deposed and the lad wants my assistance in getting them to the UK where we can sell them and share the vast profit.

Anybody got a box that can fit a dozen 4 packs of Andrex and 20 bottles of hand sanitizer?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dutch Uncle on March 08, 2020, 09:32:50 PM
I think this might be a good time to think about Pascal's wager:

Pascal argues that a rational person should live as though God exists and seek to believe in God. If God does not actually exist, such a person will have only a finite loss (some pleasures, luxury, etc.), whereas he stands to receive infinite gains (as represented by eternity in Heaven) and avoid infinite losses (eternity in Hell).


Either the novel coronavirus is a serious threat potentially leading to tens of millions of deaths, or some factor epidemiologist experts don't know yet, or currently underestimate, might mitigate it.

Either way please everyone buy into the precautions recommended and take it seriously until a moment comes when it can be proven to be well past its peak. If it fizzles you have lost nothing major. If it takes off then at least we have all given our best shot in trying to mitigate it.

And please don't be the one who spreads it to vulnerable immuno-compromised people - your body might handle the virus well but tens of millions of people, not all old, will not be so lucky.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 08, 2020, 09:35:09 PM
I've just received an e-mail from the son of the former Foreign Minister of Nigeria.

Apparently his dad managed to stash away extremely rare and valuable goods before he was deposed and the lad wants my assistance in getting them to the UK where we can sell them and share the vast profit.

Anybody got a box that can fit a dozen 4 packs of Andrex and 20 bottles of hand sanitizer?


Why would the son of the Former Foreign Minister of Nigeria contact you?

*carrying on the recent theme of taking everything serious
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 08, 2020, 09:41:18 PM
Dutch.

Amen to that. Every word.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 08, 2020, 09:41:58 PM
I've just received an e-mail from the son of the former Foreign Minister of Nigeria.

Apparently his dad managed to stash away extremely rare and valuable goods before he was deposed and the lad wants my assistance in getting them to the UK where we can sell them and share the vast profit.

Anybody got a box that can fit a dozen 4 packs of Andrex and 20 bottles of hand sanitizer?


Why would the son of the Former Foreign Minister of Nigeria contact you?

*carrying on the recent theme of taking everything serious

Dunno mate. I didn't see anything funny in it myself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 08, 2020, 09:46:26 PM
Britain 2019

Brexit means Brexit - we survived two World Wars so crashing out of the EU with no-deal will cause no problem at all.

Britain 2020

F*** off - that's my pack of Andrex
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sprotyrover on March 08, 2020, 09:54:08 PM
I've just received an e-mail from the son of the former Foreign Minister of Nigeria.

Apparently his dad managed to stash away extremely rare and valuable goods before he was deposed and the lad wants my assistance in getting them to the UK where we can sell them and share the vast profit.

Anybody got a box that can fit a dozen 4 packs of Andrex and 20 bottles of hand sanitizer?


Why would the son of the Former Foreign Minister of Nigeria contact you?

*carrying on the recent theme of taking everything serious
Don't trust that Nigerian Trickster he had a tenner out of me before I found out there was no stranded Oil tanker just off Laos😎
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 08, 2020, 09:56:09 PM
And something more profound too follow up what Dutch has said:

#CoronaVirus a brutal lesson in what "welfare," used often as a swear word, means. It means that plight of weak & vulnerable in society impacts us all. That a healthy citizenry benefits all. That collective good is the ultimate good. That no-one is immune from pain, misfortune.

https://twitter.com/ChrChristensen/status/1236675927117115393
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 08, 2020, 09:56:56 PM
It'd be well stranded if it was off the coast of Laos.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sprotyrover on March 08, 2020, 09:59:19 PM
And something more profound too follow up what Dutch has said:

#CoronaVirus a brutal lesson in what "welfare," used often as a swear word, means. It means that plight of weak & vulnerable in society impacts us all. That a healthy citizenry benefits all. That collective good is the ultimate good. That no-one is immune from pain, misfortune.

https://twitter.com/ChrChristensen/status/1236675927117115393
Sproty's top tip! Get your copy of the Metro news papar you can cut each page in half and that equates to 16 bum cleans...or in Mrs Sproty's case 4! 😉
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sprotyrover on March 08, 2020, 10:08:17 PM
The problem seems to be the ease at which it can be passed on, hence the mass lock downs in infected countries. It's a nasty cousin of the Common chuffing cold!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 08, 2020, 10:11:46 PM
And something more profound too follow up what Dutch has said:

#CoronaVirus a brutal lesson in what "welfare," used often as a swear word, means. It means that plight of weak & vulnerable in society impacts us all. That a healthy citizenry benefits all. That collective good is the ultimate good. That no-one is immune from pain, misfortune.

https://twitter.com/ChrChristensen/status/1236675927117115393

Very good point Wilts.

Some famous economist (I don't remember who but it wasn't a raving Commie) once said that people's attitude to "welfare" (as you define it) should be based on the assumption that one day, Fate would deal them a blow and they'd need Society to help them out.

We've had decades of thinking that "welfare" is something for other people - I work, you work, him over there, he scrounges off our efforts. And we've left our safety nets stretched and uncared for.

Another great economist, Hyman Minsky once said, "Success breeds a disregard of the possibility of failure". Those of us who have never had to fall back on the safety net have had years where we've never had to imagine that we might. I truly hope our welfare structures are strong enough to cope with what's coming over the next few months. And if they aren't we need to do some serious thinking about priorities afterwards.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 08, 2020, 10:12:25 PM
The problem seems to be the ease at which it can be passed on, hence the mass lock downs in infected countries. It's a nasty cousin of the Common chuffing cold!
That and the fact that it appears to have a mortality rate 20 times that of usual flu.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: albie on March 08, 2020, 10:53:07 PM
Graphic to show why introducing delay is important, and at an early date;
https://twitter.com/_MiguelHernan/status/1236330665093861379/photo/1

When you see age specific fatality ratios (best estimates), you see where the risk lies;

Age 50-59: 1.3%
Age 60-69: 4.6% (range 3.8-5.4)
Age 70-79: 9.8% (range 8.2-12)
Age 80+: 18% (range 14-22)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sprotyrover on March 08, 2020, 11:15:44 PM
It'd be well stranded if it was off the coast of Laos.
Lagos😂😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sprotyrover on March 08, 2020, 11:20:32 PM
Graphic to show why introducing delay is important, and at an early date;
https://twitter.com/_MiguelHernan/status/1236330665093861379/photo/1

When you see age specific fatality ratios (best estimates), you see where the risk lies;

Age 50-59: 1.3%
Age 60-69: 4.6% (range 3.8-5.4)
Age 70-79: 9.8% (range 8.2-12)
Age 80+: 18% (range 14-22)
Since China locked down its industry there has been a dramatic fall in Atmospheric pollution. Call me sad but why are we tolerating these dark Satanic mills to thrive and continue. We need to boycott their cheap tat until they do something about killing the planet... cmon Greta show us what you are made off!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 09, 2020, 10:06:46 AM
We are going to get a massive economic hit from Coronavirus.

On the positive side, there's nothing whatsoever to justify the Govt not borrowing to invest in infrastructure projects to boost the economy.

That's precisely what Osborne and Cameron refused to do a decade ago...because...debt.

Well guess what? That was bobbins then and it's even moreso now. The financial markets are prepared to pay the Govt to take their money right now!

https://mobile.twitter.com/bondvigilantes/status/1236925304775606272

That's right. We can borrow at negative interest rates.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 09, 2020, 10:09:43 AM
The spread of the disease is slowing down in..

China
S. Korea
Singapore
Hong Kong

Probably more
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 09, 2020, 10:22:40 AM
Four places where they have quickly taken drastic action to isolate suspected cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Colemans Left Hook on March 09, 2020, 12:54:01 PM
We are going to get a massive economic hit from Coronavirus.

On the positive side, there's nothing whatsoever to justify the Govt not borrowing to invest in infrastructure projects to boost the economy.

That's precisely what Osborne and Cameron refused to do a decade ago...because...debt.

Well guess what? That was bobbins then and it's even moreso now. The financial markets are prepared to pay the Govt to take their money right now!

https://mobile.twitter.com/bondvigilantes/status/1236925304775606272

That's right. We can borrow at negative interest rates.

which reminds me this "old chestnut"  i've known about this for a long while

2015 seems the swiss rates went negative (but the investor has probable currency gains)   long time since i remember at least 5 swiss francs to the pound 

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/switzerland/long-term-interest-rate


 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 09, 2020, 01:21:01 PM
Germany, once again, is the idiot in all this.

They can borrow for ten years at -0.8% at the moment. They cold borrow huge amounts, use it to invest in infrastructure that tey would own all over Europe, boost flagging economies and be paid by the banks for doing it!

But they won't because they have a pathological obsession with debt and inflation. Fighting a 90 year old demon when they should be dealing with today's problems.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: nightporter on March 09, 2020, 04:34:38 PM
How China slowed Coronavirus 

https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1237020518781460480
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 09, 2020, 05:21:53 PM
This.

Folk can't say on one hand "It's not dangerous - China has controlled it" and then on the other hand say that banning handshaking is a mad over-reaction.

It's a simple choice. We keep calm and carry on, and there WILL be tens of millions of cases in the UK by some point this year. Then it's a case of mitigating the worst effects, but with the very best will in the world, the worst effects will still be awful.

Or if we want to kill this outbreak, we need to accept a near- total shut down of our society.

What you cannot do, is say we don't need to do anything major, then complain with the crisis explodes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: drfchound on March 09, 2020, 05:37:53 PM
I’m a bit worried.
All day I have been singing Dean Martin and Bing Crosby songs.
I think I might have crooner virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 09, 2020, 06:10:19 PM
Meanwhile, the US and UK stock markets are down 20% in less than a month. Hard to see how this isn't pressaging a big recession.

And this...
https://mobile.twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1237001949293301761

Just astonishing. The US Govt can borrow with 30 year repayment terms at 0.8% interest!!

Like Krugman says there,that means the Market is saying it expects US growth to be negligible for the whole of the next generation.

It's starting to feel like Coronavirus is the knockout blow to an economic system that never did the simple stuff that was needed after the GFC.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: scawsby steve on March 09, 2020, 06:13:37 PM
I’m a bit worried.
All day I have been singing Dean Martin and Bing Crosby songs.
I think I might have crooner virus.

Thanks for that Hound. It's nice to hear a bit of humour after listening to all the apocalyptic armageddon doom and gloom merchants on here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 09, 2020, 06:22:52 PM
This guy is a genius.

Look at this tweet from Saturday.
https://mobile.twitter.com/silveraa/status/1236793716976672768

And this one from today.
https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1237024549046288385
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Donnywolf on March 09, 2020, 06:24:43 PM
I’m a bit worried.
All day I have been singing Dean Martin and Bing Crosby songs.
I think I might have crooner virus.

.... a lol from Mrs DW - she never did have any taste !
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 09, 2020, 09:04:02 PM
Whole of Italy now in lockdown - how on earth are they going to enforce that?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51810673
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: DonnyOsmond on March 09, 2020, 10:14:07 PM
Whole of Italy now in lockdown - how on earth are they going to enforce that?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51810673

Well they need to try something after having 97 deaths today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 09, 2020, 10:22:34 PM
That's nothing compared to what's coming. That's while they still have capacity to treat the critically ill cases. Think what happens when there are ten times as many infections and the ICUs are full.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 10, 2020, 12:19:04 PM
WHO figures seems to suggest the number of daily new cases globally has stabalised over the last 4/5 days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Mike_F on March 10, 2020, 12:35:54 PM
I see De Pfeffel Johnson has been taking a grilling form the notorious heavyweight journos, Schofield and Willoughby.

And his advice?

"Carry on and take this virus on the chin, lots of people will be absolutely fine."

Aye ok. And hundreds of thousands won't be fine at all. They'll be brown bread. Pushing up daisies. Joining the choir eternal. They will cease to be.

Out of interest what percentage of the nation's benefit spend is accounted for in the state pension? and what's the cash value of that?

And what if say around about the following percentages of claimants stopped claiming...

Quote from: Albie
Age 60-69: 4.6% (range 3.8-5.4)
Age 70-79: 9.8% (range 8.2-12)
Age 80+: 18% (range 14-22)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: idler on March 10, 2020, 12:51:04 PM
It's not just the amount spent on pensions it could also knock a large amount of benefits, hospital and medical expenses.
I'm sure that the hard nosed politicians won't have considered this though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Red Baron on March 10, 2020, 12:54:25 PM
I think that Johnson clip was from a few weeks ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Mike_F on March 10, 2020, 12:56:43 PM
Ah, apologies if that's the Case, TRB. I only saw it this morning but I guess that's social media for you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: albie on March 10, 2020, 05:35:27 PM
Helpful update summary from MIT;
https://www.technologyreview.com/f/615341/flu-vs-coronavirus-6-differences/

Key point to note is the time the virus can stay active for spreading. See the section on "shedding".

Rough ride ahead!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bristol Red Rover on March 10, 2020, 06:42:28 PM
Something I see a lot of people making a mistake on is seeing the deaths and seeing them as a proportion of totsl cases.

In the UK so far, 6 dead and 18 recovered, with 349 to go one of those ways. I'm not suggesting the mortality is 6/18 ie 33% in the UK, but it's far above 6/373 ie 1.6%.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 10, 2020, 07:10:00 PM
Why would it be far above 1.6%? The ONLY country that has done widespread testing, i.e. South Korea (who last I checked had tested over 200k people) are reporting a mortality rate of approximately 0.7%.

There are several promising treatments already on the horizon, or so I can decipher. One is using Chloroquine (a malaria medication that I have taken myself in the past) and a Zinc treatment Combo. Zinc supresses corona apparently but can't get naturally into cells. Chloroquine transports it into the cell.

There are also some drugs for ebola (And other diseases) that weren't effective but went through early stage trials, so don't need to go through them again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: DonnyOsmond on March 10, 2020, 07:12:18 PM
Doesn't seem to be growing too quickly here luckily. America will be one to watch with their lack of universal health care, people will be ignoring the symptoms because they can't afford the treatment or test.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bristol Red Rover on March 10, 2020, 07:14:40 PM
CIM - All active cases will become recovered or dead. In your version you are assuming they will all recover.

In S Korea, where the number of cases known is more acurate than here or even Italy, the mortality is somewhere between 0.7% (if all active cases recover), and 22% based on those cases that are no longer active ie dead or recovered.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 10, 2020, 07:25:36 PM
That is true, of course, but they estimate 99% of active cases in South Korea are mild, so in reality the mortality rate will broadly remain the same.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 10, 2020, 08:09:49 PM
WHO figures seems to suggest the number of daily new cases globally has stabalised over the last 4/5 days.

Yes, but that includes China, where the cases have dropped dramatically. Look at the daily increase outside China.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#case-dayly-outchina

Even that is a bit optimistic because it includes a big drop in new case from South Korea.

The increases in France, Spain, Germany, Switzerland, Norway and Denmark are a big concern.

Then there's the USA where they are hardly testing at all and have still got big increases,which suggests there are a lot of undiagnosed cases over there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nudga on March 10, 2020, 09:09:15 PM
Not heard anything about people getting the virus but are now well and fully recovered.
Just seem more interested in new cases which keeps the figures high.

Funny that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 10, 2020, 09:24:06 PM
Here is the data for active cases mapped as to yesterday. Make your own conclusions

https://twitter.com/MarkJHandley/status/1237119688578138112
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 10, 2020, 09:57:18 PM
Nudga.

Here you go.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Remember, that's only those who have been diagnosed and recovered. The real number is probably 5-10 times that.

But that would still make the fatality rate 1% of all those who get infected, which is frighteningly high.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: MachoMadness on March 10, 2020, 10:25:29 PM
https://youtu.be/cZFhjMQrVts

Worth taking 15 minutes to watch. Just. Take. Precautions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: albie on March 10, 2020, 11:20:46 PM
Nadine Dorries tests positive for the virus;
https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/10/nadine-dorries-becomes-uks-first-mp-diagnosed-coronavirus-12379100/?ITO=squid&ito=newsnow-feed

Tracing contacts is going to be fun.
HoC to self-isolate?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Glyn_Wigley on March 10, 2020, 11:59:05 PM
Nadine Dorries tests positive for the virus;
https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/10/nadine-dorries-becomes-uks-first-mp-diagnosed-coronavirus-12379100/?ITO=squid&ito=newsnow-feed

Tracing contacts is going to be fun.
HoC to self-isolate?

I bet she doesn't use the NHS.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 11, 2020, 12:51:46 AM
It's slowly emerging what a problem this virus is for the American system.

1) They have zero central control and co-ordination over their health care system. The hospitals are responsible to their shareholders when what you want now is someone sitting in Govt shouting "You! Stop doing hip replacements for 6 months and get some f**king ICU beds ready."

2) Americans at the moment are personally liable to pay for Coronavirus tests. Their insurance may cover it, but many insurance policies have deductibles - like the excess on your car insurance. So you need to be keeping tabs on the problem, but you're relying on folk to pay for that themselves.

3) THIRTY NINE states have no sick pay provisions.

So who is going to:

a) pay for a test, then

b) self isolate with no sick pay?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-us-canada-51803890
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: NickDRFC on March 11, 2020, 07:09:06 AM
I see tonight’s Man City vs Arsenal game has been postponed as the now-diagnosed Olympiakos chairman had met some Arsenal players at the end of February. Yet tomorrow Wolves are still being told to travel to...Olympiakos. I know it’s different governing bodies making the call but the inconsistency is baffling.

The Olympiakos chairman is also in charge at Forest, and Arsenal have played Portsmouth in the FA Cup since then. I except the dominoes to start falling pretty quickly now...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: big fat yorkshire pudding on March 11, 2020, 09:35:27 AM
Nadine Dorries tests positive for the virus;
https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/10/nadine-dorries-becomes-uks-first-mp-diagnosed-coronavirus-12379100/?ITO=squid&ito=newsnow-feed

Tracing contacts is going to be fun.
HoC to self-isolate?

I bet she doesn't use the NHS.

As a former NHS nurse I suspect she probably does.....
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 11, 2020, 10:55:08 AM
What is it they say about banks and insurance companies? They are like a man who sells you an umbrella when it is sunny and takes it away when the rain starts.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51826295

My mother and her husband paid a deposit a few months ago for a holiday to Portugal in May. They really don't want to take the holiday now because he is not massively well, he's 80 and is clearly in the biggest threat group. It's is highly likely that travel won't be possible by then anyway, and that they would get refunded. But they have to pay the balance of the holiday cost in a couple of days. If they don't pay it, they lose their deposit. If they do pay it, they are at the mercy of the Govt announcing that travel is banned, thereby kicking in their insurance. If that doesn't happen and they choose not to go because of his condition, they've lost the entire amount.

It's an impossible situation for them, and I'm sure it's being played out hundreds of thousands of times in other homes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: albie on March 11, 2020, 11:27:35 AM
As Dorries has been in contact with numerous people, in and out of government, then surely her contacts need to self isolate.

Just on a precautionary basis, that would include Johnson and Hancock.
About time these tosspots did what others are being urged to do, in the public good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Colemans Left Hook on March 11, 2020, 12:09:12 PM
is it me or are Russia not giving out any figures on this virus.?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: albie on March 11, 2020, 12:18:34 PM
According to the Evening Standard,

"Public Health England said it had assessed the risk of Ms Dorries’ individual close contacts and only those with symptoms needed to self-isolate."

This makes no sense at all.
By the time symptoms show it is too late, and the infection could have been passed on to others.

Not sure if this is the Evening Standard being economical with the truth...I can't believe PHE would say this!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 11, 2020, 12:20:29 PM
Of course they aren't giving correct data.

Neither are Turkey nor Saudi Arabia.

(Trump is desperate for widespread testing not to occur too - he is obsessed with "the numbers" because he knows it will do for him if there is a mass outbreak and the economy tanks. So his preference is for people not to know the extent of the outbreak for as long as possible.)

The leaders of those countries all have one thing in common. They've bullshitted their followers into believing that they are Strong Men who can protect the people.

This is cards on the table time now. We will see what they are actually made of. If they mismanage this and people get angry, it is not going to be pretty.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 11, 2020, 12:24:08 PM
There's also a little thing about our numbers that doesn't ring true.

Italy says 10% of diagnosed cases have required hospitalisation. We have 400 cases so that would be 40. But we haven't yet had a single case reported as serious or critical. And yet, 6 infected people have died. Did they never go through a "critical" phase?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 11, 2020, 12:45:07 PM
Haven’t had time to read through the whole thread but I have difficulty comprehending some things..

The main issue is the time between actually picking up the virus and being diagnosed.  Does a test show up as positive after a day, 3 days, longer.?

Surely if people are only tested when they feel unwell, then that’s too late to prevent further spread.?  By the time you’ve found the virus it’s been passed on..

Therefore can it be argued that all the potential containment measures like lockdowns or playing football matches behind closed doors are simply too late.?

Also, if we have a period of lockdown or working from home, how do we know when it’s safe to go back.?

This virus is killing people but so do other things.  Without wanting to get too controversial, and playing devils advocate, should we let nature take its course.?  What happens next time a similar new virus strain crops up.?  Do we shut down every time or accept that some things can’t be beaten.?

Let me be clear, I mean that last point on a global scale rather than any individual suffering and losing a family member because of this.

My worry is that it is already too late in this country - the virus is here and spreading faster than we can find it and stop it. 

If it had a mortality rate the same as flu, would we just let it go and work on new preventative jabs for vulnerable people.?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: casperjebba on March 11, 2020, 12:47:02 PM
How qualified this writer is, I don't know. But some interesting maths nonetheless...

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 11, 2020, 12:50:54 PM
Some hope perhaps....

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-scientists-In-three-weeks-we-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-619101
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Red Baron on March 11, 2020, 01:48:27 PM
There's also a little thing about our numbers that doesn't ring true.

Italy says 10% of diagnosed cases have required hospitalisation. We have 400 cases so that would be 40. But we haven't yet had a single case reported as serious or critical. And yet, 6 infected people have died. Did they never go through a "critical" phase?

The DoH doesn't seem to be reporting serious/ critical cases in its daily bulletin. Although yesterday I heard that approximately 20 ICU beds were currently occupied by Coronavirus patients.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Mike_F on March 11, 2020, 01:58:51 PM
Without wanting to get too controversial, and playing devils advocate, should we let nature take its course.?  What happens next time a similar new virus strain crops up.?  Do we shut down every time or accept that some things can’t be beaten.?

The issue I guess with that is because this one is so virulent, the natural course of things would lead to millions infected and tens of thousands hospitalised in a very short window therefore overwhelming healthcare provision and leading to more deaths not only from the virus but others who would miss out on treatment for other life-threatening conditions/injuries etc.

I don't doubt that this thing will spread and despite all precautions with regard to self isolation etc. the best hope we have is to flatten the curve a bit and give the NHS a fighting chance of keeping on top of the workload over a longer period of time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 11, 2020, 02:08:37 PM
Just seen that the UK are apparently up 73 cases today to 456.

I see the number being tested has risen quite sharply...

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 11, 2020, 02:45:34 PM
Without wanting to get too controversial, and playing devils advocate, should we let nature take its course.?  What happens next time a similar new virus strain crops up.?  Do we shut down every time or accept that some things can’t be beaten.?

The issue I guess with that is because this one is so virulent, the natural course of things would lead to millions infected and tens of thousands hospitalised in a very short window therefore overwhelming healthcare provision and leading to more deaths not only from the virus but others who would miss out on treatment for other life-threatening conditions/injuries etc.

I don't doubt that this thing will spread and despite all precautions with regard to self isolation etc. the best hope we have is to flatten the curve a bit and give the NHS a fighting chance of keeping on top of the workload over a longer period of time.

Also known as, if you have any mild illness (including Corona) DO NOT go to the hospital.

Another reason not to, if it turns out you don't have corona you have a high chance of actually catching it in a hospital. They have just done a randomised control test of hospital workers here in the Netherlands and 4% are infected (many would not have reported it without the random test).

One of the ways South Korea controlled the spread was by implementing 'drive-through' testing centres, avoiding the need for large amounts of people to gather in health centres.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 11, 2020, 02:47:50 PM
And I have just read the link MM posted above, and that is the official UK Gov advice also. The most responsible thing you can do is stay away from healthcare facilities.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 11, 2020, 03:09:12 PM
Just read on the bbc that Hungary is suspending all gatherings of over 100 people indoors, and over 500 outdoors, until further notice.  They have only 13 cases...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 11, 2020, 03:13:06 PM
Just read on the bbc that Hungary is suspending all gatherings of over 100 people indoors, and over 500 outdoors, until further notice.  They have only 13 cases...

Glad they didn't start that last week - I was in Budapest...... although to be fair we were seldom in crowds exceeding those limits.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: selby on March 11, 2020, 03:50:32 PM
Just watching interviews being conducted on Sky news in Wakefield shopping centre.
   There is a lot more people in that shopping centre than Rome.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 11, 2020, 04:42:25 PM
Without wanting to get too controversial, and playing devils advocate, should we let nature take its course.?  What happens next time a similar new virus strain crops up.?  Do we shut down every time or accept that some things can’t be beaten.?

The issue I guess with that is because this one is so virulent, the natural course of things would lead to millions infected and tens of thousands hospitalised in a very short window therefore overwhelming healthcare provision and leading to more deaths not only from the virus but others who would miss out on treatment for other life-threatening conditions/injuries etc.

I don't doubt that this thing will spread and despite all precautions with regard to self isolation etc. the best hope we have is to flatten the curve a bit and give the NHS a fighting chance of keeping on top of the workload over a longer period of time.

This.

Make some broad assumptions and you can see the extent of the problem.

Let's say we are lucky and only 20% of the population get infected. That's 14 million people.

In Italy, 1 in 10 is requiring hospital treatment. That 1.4million.

Experts say that in an normal flu epidemic, 50% of the cases come in three weeks at the peak. So that would mean 700,000 needing hospital treatment over a 3 week period.

But the NHS only has 100,000 beds. For everything.

Look at it like that and you can see that doing nothing is just not an option. It would be carnage. The death rate from Coronavirus would be massively higher, because people who would survive with treatment won't get treated. And people will die of other things, like strokes and heart attacks because they won't be able to get treatment.

So we HAVE to do something to slow down the spread around the time of the peak. Get the number of cases down to lower figures and give the NHS a chance to cope.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 11, 2020, 04:47:31 PM
I agree BST - my post above what rhetorical in nature.

However will attempts to slow things down work, if we are already chasing the spread of the virus that has previously been undetected..?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 11, 2020, 05:32:00 PM
That seems to be the risk Johnson took on Monday when he said it was not the right time to take stronger measures.

If Monday was not the right time to take measures to halt the spread of the virus when we had half the cases we have now, and he let Crufts and Cheltenham go ahead, when will be?

I can't work it out? Did he think it was not going to spread - or does he want people to catch it knowing 'most' people will only be lightly affected? Or is there some other cunning plan the whole world has missed?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: since-1969 on March 11, 2020, 06:14:48 PM


A reply sent to me from Marie at DRFC with regards to the clubs response  to the virus .


Hi Brian,

 

I have tried to give you a call in response to this but was unable to get through earlier, I hope you don’t mind me replying by email.

 

In terms of the current position, we are following guidance from Public Health England and the EFL and we continue to plan for Saturday’s match as usual.   We have put additional hygiene measures in place, such as additional cleaning of public areas, signage reminders of washing hands, front of staff house using antibacterial wipes regularly throughout the day on door handles and reception counters etc etc.  Catering staff have also been briefed by reinforcing existing rules and practices around food safety, personal hygiene and infection control.

 

Although the current guidance suggests that washing hands with soap and water is the most effective method, we are also trying to source wall mounted hand sanitiser units for supporters piece of mind.  As you may be aware, there is a widespread shortage of these available currently but we have an order which is due to be delivered this Friday.  I am a little cautious of announcing this publicly at this stage as I would rather have received the delivery and had them in place before confirming!

 

We have been through the stadium this week to ensure every soap dispenser is working and well stocked.  This will be checked again on Friday morning, along with paper towels dispensers as part of our pre-match checks.  We have put additional posters up in all toilets to remind people to wash their hands.

 

This information is planned to go out to supporters as part of the pre match communications (usually on a Friday).  As the situation is evolving, we thought it better to provide the most up to date information possible to supporters to be able to make an informed decision about their match day plans.

 

If you would like me to give you a call tomorrow to discuss further, please let me know a convenient time and I will get in touch.


Best wishes,

 

Marie
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 11, 2020, 06:20:49 PM
IDM

I don't know if it will work. But we have to try it. The peak is going to be very bad. It's a question of if we can stop it being very, VERY bad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: adamtherover on March 11, 2020, 06:29:22 PM
Without wanting to get too controversial, and playing devils advocate, should we let nature take its course.?  What happens next time a similar new virus strain crops up.?  Do we shut down every time or accept that some things can’t be beaten.?

The issue I guess with that is because this one is so virulent, the natural course of things would lead to millions infected and tens of thousands hospitalised in a very short window therefore overwhelming healthcare provision and leading to more deaths not only from the virus but others who would miss out on treatment for other life-threatening conditions/injuries etc.

I don't doubt that this thing will spread and despite all precautions with regard to self isolation etc. the best hope we have is to flatten the curve a bit and give the NHS a fighting chance of keeping on top of the workload over a longer period of time.

So we HAVE to do something to slow down the spread around the time of the peak. Get the number of cases down to lower figures and give the NHS a chance to cope.
Last week we had a 33% increase daily, today we have 25%, a bigger physical number, but in terms of actual growth into big numbers, is it slowing down?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 11, 2020, 06:30:35 PM
IDM

I don't know if it will work. But we have to try it. The peak is going to be very bad. It's a question of if we can stop it being very, VERY bad.

I have to agree but all I can see these measures doing is postponing the effects - with the benefit of spreading the load on the nhs.?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 11, 2020, 06:32:03 PM
Without wanting to get too controversial, and playing devils advocate, should we let nature take its course.?  What happens next time a similar new virus strain crops up.?  Do we shut down every time or accept that some things can’t be beaten.?

The issue I guess with that is because this one is so virulent, the natural course of things would lead to millions infected and tens of thousands hospitalised in a very short window therefore overwhelming healthcare provision and leading to more deaths not only from the virus but others who would miss out on treatment for other life-threatening conditions/injuries etc.

I don't doubt that this thing will spread and despite all precautions with regard to self isolation etc. the best hope we have is to flatten the curve a bit and give the NHS a fighting chance of keeping on top of the workload over a longer period of time.

So we HAVE to do something to slow down the spread around the time of the peak. Get the number of cases down to lower figures and give the NHS a chance to cope.
Last week we had a 33% increase daily, today we have 25%, a bigger physical number, but in terms of actual growth into big numbers, is it slowing down?

That’s detected cases, who’s to say there isn’t a big increase of undetected spread yet.?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: adamtherover on March 11, 2020, 06:33:37 PM
Of course, but I suppose apart from actual deaths, a lot of the numbers are open to scrutiny..   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 11, 2020, 06:37:20 PM
Adam

There are usually small increases right at the very start because no one is testing, then bigger increases in CONFIRMED cases for a period in the early stages as testing gets going, because there's a backlog of cases to confirm. The epidemiologists say that the real case numbers in typical epidemics grow at approximately 20% per day.

That's still scary though. It means that the real cases will grow 50-100 fold over a month. Which is pretty much what we have seen in the past month (4 cases on 9 Feb: 278 on 9 March: 450 today). So that would suggest that we'll have 20-40,000 cases by mid April, into the millions by early-May and probably a peak late May/early July unless we drastically slow the spread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 11, 2020, 06:39:25 PM
IDM

I don't know if it will work. But we have to try it. The peak is going to be very bad. It's a question of if we can stop it being very, VERY bad.

I have to agree but all I can see these measures doing is postponing the effects - with the benefit of spreading the load on the nhs.?

Because you want to get the numbers down to levels that can be coped with when they peak.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/science/coronavirus-curve-mitigation-infection.html

That said, I am very worried that that lovely graphic massively underestimates the amount by which the peak will be higher than the health system's capacity. But we've got to try.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 11, 2020, 06:41:17 PM
PS:

That's why anyone who ignores the advice on handwashing and the coming advice on social distancing is effectively complicit in mass deaths.

It is THAT serious folks. Wash your f**king hands 10 times a day and keep out of unnecessary crowds.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: adamtherover on March 11, 2020, 06:42:38 PM
Do you not think folk will self regulate their selves to an extent if numbers start to rise sharply regardless of any official plans?  Its not as clear cut as 2 plus 2 equals 10 million cases by thursday week.  Because the calculator says so?
Right now  numbers are small, folk are already stocking up, we have seen that,  there will be a bad day, and all if a sudden, no ones leaving the house...   
The media frenzy, if anything has made damn sure that no one is in the dark about this..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nudga on March 11, 2020, 06:45:39 PM
Well, this looks like the death of my business.
Folk have panicked and cancelled jobs, the phone hasn't rung and there's nothing coming through.
Couple this virus with the misinformation about woodburners and burning wood.

There will be millions like me in this position. There might not even be enough jobs out there when this calms down.

I'm not worried about the virus, I'm bloody scared about the future though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 11, 2020, 06:45:50 PM
Adam

It's not ME saying this is the typical rate of growth. It's global experts who have spent their life studying these things.

I don't understand why you feel the need to fight these facts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 11, 2020, 06:49:29 PM
Nudga.

Have a look at what was announced in the Budget. There's a lot of support for small businesses.

The single most stupid economic thing we could do is to allow perfectly sound businesses to go under because of what is a very short term problem. If we do that, we will be poorer for a generation because you don't re-invent those businesses by clicking your fingers.

In fairness, I think the Chancellor gets that and I think there will be massive Govt borrowing or money printing to address it.

IF they manage the economic right, your problem will be too much work in the second half of the year, as people spend on the stuff they've delayed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nudga on March 11, 2020, 06:51:11 PM
Thanks BST, yes I saw that and I'll be on the phone tomorrow, see what they can do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: adamtherover on March 11, 2020, 06:51:16 PM
Adam

It's not ME saying this is the typical rate of growth. It's global experts who have spent their life studying these things.

I don't understand why you feel the need to fight these facts.
facts about a brand new virus? 
And where am I fighting them, I'm quoting today's growth figures are less than last week, and I'm suggesting folk might show some common sense in relation to not being the next victim.  You are the only one who had already signed the death certificate on a million folk?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: adamtherover on March 11, 2020, 06:53:41 PM
Theres 2 cases in south Yorkshire, 2!!  That's some growth to be done before we run out of hospital beds.

This is my last post on the subject, stay safe everyone!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 11, 2020, 07:13:23 PM
Adam
Grab a calculator. Work out how many cases we'll have in South Yorkshire by mid-May if they double every five days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: turnbull for england on March 11, 2020, 08:27:46 PM
https://twitter.com/RedRiding65/status/1237508370149576704?s=09
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: 5minstogo on March 11, 2020, 10:17:32 PM
Theres 2 cases in south Yorkshire, 2!!  That's some growth to be done before we run out of hospital beds.

This is my last post on the subject, stay safe everyone!

4 in South Yorks. (2 in Barnsley , 1 in Rotherham and 1 in Sheffield) Plenty more in self isolation and awaiting testing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 12, 2020, 12:25:45 AM
Have to say, our numbers are looking increasingly iffy.

As a proportion of the population, the figures we in the UK are posting are WAY lower than comparable countries in Western Europe. We're seeing numbers down at the bottom end of the scale. Which, remarkably, is where you find a lot of countries with barely functioning democracies, and leaders with a track record of shovelling shit at their population.

Infections/million population
Italy 206
Norway 116
Denmark 89
Switzerland 75
Sweden 50
Spain 49
France 35
Netherlands 29
Belgium 27
Austria 27
Germany 23
.
.
.
UK 7
USA 4
Hungary 1.3
Saudi Arabia 1.3
Poland 0.8
Russia 0.1
Turkey 0.01
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 12, 2020, 01:17:47 AM
Well now!

A propos of that post, Trump has just announced that the USA is introducing travel restrictions from Europe.

But they won't include the UK...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 12, 2020, 02:11:53 AM
Well now!

A propos of that post, Trump has just announced that the USA is introducing travel restrictions from Europe.

But they won't include the UK...

Trump has out trumped himself. Set up a straw man while the virus spreads within the boarders
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: big fat yorkshire pudding on March 12, 2020, 07:54:33 AM
Indeed and how is the uk an exception to the eu given still have freedom.of movement it seems strange. I suspect travel bans will increase in the near future.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Ldr on March 12, 2020, 07:56:53 AM
UK and Ireland are not part of the schengen area
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 12, 2020, 08:19:34 AM
The UK being an Island may be helping us here
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: big fat yorkshire pudding on March 12, 2020, 08:21:34 AM
UK and Ireland are not part of the schengen area

But we still have to let eu citizens in as it stands who can then take a trip to America, doesnt as yet make sense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 12, 2020, 08:26:50 AM
It's just hit home for me. My sister has just lost her job, the business collapsed.

She worked in recruitment. Nobody is recruiting in London and jobs are going left, right and centre across the capital.

At least she's got a bit of redundancy pay and she won't be travelling on the tube at rush hour anymore.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Ldr on March 12, 2020, 08:35:07 AM
UK and Ireland are not part of the schengen area

But we still have to let eu citizens in as it stands who can then take a trip to America, doesnt as yet make sense.

That my friend is very true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 12, 2020, 08:46:59 AM


A reply sent to me from Marie at DRFC with regards to the clubs response  to the virus .


Hi Brian,

 

I have tried to give you a call in response to this but was unable to get through earlier, I hope you don’t mind me replying by email.

 

In terms of the current position, we are following guidance from Public Health England and the EFL and we continue to plan for Saturday’s match as usual.   We have put additional hygiene measures in place, such as additional cleaning of public areas, signage reminders of washing hands, front of staff house using antibacterial wipes regularly throughout the day on door handles and reception counters etc etc.  Catering staff have also been briefed by reinforcing existing rules and practices around food safety, personal hygiene and infection control.

 

Although the current guidance suggests that washing hands with soap and water is the most effective method, we are also trying to source wall mounted hand sanitiser units for supporters piece of mind.  As you may be aware, there is a widespread shortage of these available currently but we have an order which is due to be delivered this Friday.  I am a little cautious of announcing this publicly at this stage as I would rather have received the delivery and had them in place before confirming!

 

We have been through the stadium this week to ensure every soap dispenser is working and well stocked.  This will be checked again on Friday morning, along with paper towels dispensers as part of our pre-match checks.  We have put additional posters up in all toilets to remind people to wash their hands.

 

This information is planned to go out to supporters as part of the pre match communications (usually on a Friday).  As the situation is evolving, we thought it better to provide the most up to date information possible to supporters to be able to make an informed decision about their match day plans.

 

If you would like me to give you a call tomorrow to discuss further, please let me know a convenient time and I will get in touch.


Best wishes,

 

Marie


I can't see washing hands making a great deal of difference when the virus is transmitted through the air. Sit within a seat or two of someone spreading the virus and there you are at significantly greater risk. The bigger issue is probably pre match, half time and final whistle when there are so many gathering in the halls below the stands.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 12, 2020, 09:09:03 AM
If you are going to the match I'd suggest getting in early before queues and crowds develop. Stay in your seat at halftime. Wait for the crowds to subside at the final whistle.

If you are over 60 I'd seriously consider giving it a miss.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: DonnyOsmond on March 12, 2020, 09:29:04 AM
Seen rumours on Twitter that they're about to announce that games will be behind closed doors and on ifollow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 12, 2020, 09:53:03 AM
Wouldn't surprise me. They are announcing today that we are in the Delay phase. We are mike's behind other countries in taking serious social distancing steps, so I'd expect that to happen today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Red Baron on March 12, 2020, 10:11:47 AM
If you are going to the match I'd suggest getting in early before queues and crowds develop. Stay in your seat at halftime. Wait for the crowds to subside at the final whistle.

If you are over 60 I'd seriously consider giving it a miss.

I honestly think I'd be more likely to pick up Coronavirus in a supermarket queue than I would be at a football match.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 12, 2020, 10:27:42 AM
But if we restrict ourselves to only doing things which are essential like food shopping, and non essential things like football matches, then the risk of exposure is significantly reduced and the spread could slow..  not stop, but slow down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Donnywolf on March 12, 2020, 10:35:25 AM
I got slated for referring to Asian Flu on here a week or so ago as it had "no relevance" but that boomed from a start similar to this - and in 6 months from June 57 to Christmas 57 three thousand five hundred and fifty people in the UK were dead
We had no social media of course and even Telly was in its infancy and the Asian Flu would have been mentioned I am guessing only during news bulletins. I dont know I was only 6+ - but what I do know it eventually got me and my parents and brother and we were all bed ridden but recovered. I seem to remember we were in bed for "ages" probably a week
So this outbreak essentially (I am guessing) pretty similar to that is a frightening prospect and knowing what to do is difficult because everything you touch in the outside world carries a risk - and the risk is that someone has spread it via touching train seats doors - Open Door buttons - money they paid for Tickets which you get on your change etc etc. I could drive myself batty just thinking about it
However (eventually) I too would think I am more at risk of contracting it in a Supermarket than going to the Game tomorrow
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Donnywolf on March 12, 2020, 10:42:54 AM
But if we restrict ourselves to only doing things which are essential like food shopping, and non essential things like football matches, then the risk of exposure is significantly reduced and the spread could slow..  not stop, but slow down.

I am tending to agree with that IDM

If everyone (in theory) stayed at home and you had 100% confidence in its bio security and a regime at home which kept it that way then I think that its spread would be seriously curtailed

However for me that is "easy" as I have been retired from work many years ago - I could order food in via delivery (swabbing the Tins and of course bottles) and phone and skype everybody BUT I realise this cant be done by just anyone. They HAVE to go out to work and just "to live".

That would be a way I am sure to protect myself - and probably the way to go for me personally - I will have to make a serios judgement because I am in a vulnerable age bracket and have underlying health problems
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: idler on March 12, 2020, 11:31:32 AM
I have two friends on a 55 night round the world cruise. They payed a fortune for the cruise,excursions and over £1,000 in visa fees alone. There were 2,000 passengers at the start and now only 900 odd still aboard. They will be cruising around Australia for the next 14 days without landing. No refunds on their cancelled excursions just an on board spend allowance with only one shop and nothing that they want to buy. An unfortunate way to spend the holiday of a lifetime.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 12, 2020, 11:52:33 AM
Good article here....

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: silent majority on March 12, 2020, 12:05:57 PM
Just to add a bit of levity here;

Neville Sothall tweeted that we should all wear gloves, because when he wore gloves he caught f**k all!!

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: knockers on March 12, 2020, 12:17:16 PM
Neville Southall tweeted the same as well  ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 12, 2020, 01:16:56 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/51853524

Inevitable really.

It is starting to look like irresponsibility that we aren't doing similar.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: MachoMadness on March 12, 2020, 01:25:51 PM
https://www.politics.co.uk/news/2011/10/18/boris-reveals-his-political-hero-the-mayor-fr

Quite funny, when you think about it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 12, 2020, 02:42:21 PM
3 Leicester players in self isolation after showing symptoms.  Just a matter of time now...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 12, 2020, 02:51:39 PM
https://www.politics.co.uk/news/2011/10/18/boris-reveals-his-political-hero-the-mayor-fr

Quite funny, when you think about it.

It came out of Johnson's mouth. It'll be a lie.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 12, 2020, 02:57:44 PM
Not sure if posted but UK has had an increase of 130 cases today (now 590) and 2 further deaths - total now 10.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 12, 2020, 03:11:58 PM
Doubling time is currently 3.5 days. So.if that keeps up, we'll be at 2,500 this time next week, 10,000 the week after. That's, respectively,where Spain and Italy have been this week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 12, 2020, 03:23:19 PM
Stock markets are in free fall. FTSE100 is now down 29% in three weeks. Apparently this is the fastest ever drop of that scale.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 12, 2020, 03:25:01 PM
Doubling time is currently 3.5 days. So.if that keeps up, we'll be at 2,500 this time next week, 10,000 the week after. That's, respectively,where Spain and Italy have been this week.

That's about right - Italy had 655 cases on 27 Feb and 10,149 on 10 March.  Spain had 674 on 8 March and 3,003 on 12 March.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 12, 2020, 04:47:04 PM
Nicola Sturgeon has jumped the gun and revealed the details of the latest Cobra meeting before Boris Johnson.

Apparently we are now in the delay phase, though I think we've been in a delay phase for a longtime already.

She is saying they are going to ban gatherings of 500 or more. So I imagine that's it for the weekends football, it'll be behind closed doors.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 12, 2020, 04:54:32 PM
She was saying that before the cobra meeting, and it was a recommendation to avoid gathering smog over 500..

I’m following on the bbc ticker..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 12, 2020, 05:00:00 PM
Ah sorry, apparently they are bringing the new rules in on Monday, so this will be the last weekend.

The only question now as far as football goes is, as players begin falling sick will they manage to finish the season?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 12, 2020, 05:12:53 PM
According to the BBC just now, the government is only considering the question of banning major events including sporting fixtures..

He also says “the most dangerous period is not how, but some weeks away, depending how far it spreads”

Surely if it’s going to be more dangerous on a few weeks there should be more preventive measures now.?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ravenrover on March 12, 2020, 05:16:18 PM
I got slated for referring to Asian Flu on here a week or so ago as it had "no relevance" but that boomed from a start similar to this - and in 6 months from June 57 to Christmas 57 three thousand five hundred and fifty people in the UK were dead
We had no social media of course and even Telly was in its infancy and the Asian Flu would have been mentioned I am guessing only during news bulletins. I dont know I was only 6+ - but what I do know it eventually got me and my parents and brother and we were all bed ridden but recovered. I seem to remember we were in bed for "ages" probably a week
So this outbreak essentially (I am guessing) pretty similar to that is a frightening prospect and knowing what to do is difficult because everything you touch in the outside world carries a risk - and the risk is that someone has spread it via touching train seats doors - Open Door buttons - money they paid for Tickets which you get on your change etc etc. I could drive myself batty just thinking about it
However (eventually) I too would think I am more at risk of contracting it in a Supermarket than going to the Game tomorrow

Wolfie you are dead right about 1 thing in your post you definitely won't catch it at the game TOMORROW 😷😄
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 12, 2020, 05:26:15 PM
I can't understand why they are not following the Irish lead and closing schools. I suppose because they are aware of the strain it will put on working parents.

It is coming though. I really can't see them being able to sit exams this summer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sprotyrover on March 12, 2020, 05:29:43 PM
London Evening Standard...Boris states between 5 and 10,000 infected in UK
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 12, 2020, 05:35:30 PM
The bbc column discusses why the uk isn’t doing as much as other countries.

Apparently it is “because we have a relatively low number of confirmed cases, so there is no need to take steps that will have profound social and economic consequences”

What about the unconfirmed cases and the spread they don’t know about.?

Am I missing something here.?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 12, 2020, 05:38:53 PM
To be fair they have been randomly testing people coming into doctors surgeries to try and pick up if they are missing the virus.

The UK is at least doing quite a large amount of testing. Not the best but still a lot better than most.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 12, 2020, 05:48:17 PM
I’m not one to over react but I think our government is being blasé about this. Are other countries being over cautious.?

It’s my opinion but I don’t think the uk is doing anywhere near enough to contain the spread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: albie on March 12, 2020, 05:53:04 PM
The management of public opinion was the theme for the media.

Very surprised to hear them claim we are 4 weeks behind Italy....when I last looked it was about 11 days!

Why have they not closed the stock market down for a month to damp down the financial panic?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: i_ateallthepies on March 12, 2020, 06:59:08 PM
I’m not one to over react but I think our government is being blasé about this. Are other countries being over cautious.?

It’s my opinion but I don’t think the uk is doing anywhere near enough to contain the spread.

Check out the link Macho Madness posted in post 342 for confirmation that your opinion of the government's response is blasé.  The best evidence-based piece of analysis I think I have ever seen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 12, 2020, 06:59:14 PM
The management of public opinion was the theme for the media.

Very surprised to hear them claim we are 4 weeks behind Italy....when I last looked it was about 11 days!

Why have they not closed the stock market down for a month to damp down the financial panic?

The money men will make a lot of money out of this buying low and selling when the stock market recovers
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rich1471 on March 12, 2020, 07:14:23 PM
Your right filo the company I work for the shares have gone from 1.26 on the 27 Feb to 55p today and will go lower
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: drfchound on March 12, 2020, 07:16:31 PM
Anyone can take advantage of buying shares at their low point and making some money.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 12, 2020, 07:25:37 PM
When news first started to break, apparently a group of students clubbed together to buy hand sanitiser in bulk. They then split the packets and sold individual bottles online at a huge mark up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 12, 2020, 07:28:14 PM
The bbc column discusses why the uk isn’t doing as much as other countries.

Apparently it is “because we have a relatively low number of confirmed cases, so there is no need to take steps that will have profound social and economic consequences”

What about the unconfirmed cases and the spread they don’t know about.?

Am I missing something here.?

I think we are probably doing the right thing.

We aren't going to stop this now, so it's about spreading the duration. We need to turn the three week peak to a three month peak. So there WILL be a near closedown at the peak time. And it might well last three months. And it might still be 2-3 months away.

Being draconian now doesn't help. Slowing down the rate if spread when we only have a few hundred or thousand cases doesn't help. What you want to do is slow the rate of growth from half a million cases upwards. And if we shut down schools now, that's going to be an extra 2-3 months of parents having to be off work, for no benefit.

Save the big effort for when the tsunami breaks and it's really needed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 12, 2020, 07:30:03 PM
London Evening Standard...Boris states between 5 and 10,000 infected in UK

I hope to God that is right.

If there's 10,000 cases and only 10 deaths, maybe the death rate might be a lot lower than we think. I'd take a 0.1% death rate now. It will still mean 30-40,000 dead but that's at the very best end of what we can hope for.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 12, 2020, 07:35:22 PM
The mortality rate in Italy is looking closer to 5%, I'd snap your hand off for 0.1%

The UK has quite a lot in common with Italy, a large elderly population, lots of people with underlying health conditions, obesity, diabetes and so on.

This is really going to test the NHS.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 12, 2020, 07:59:40 PM
The bbc column discusses why the uk isn’t doing as much as other countries.

Apparently it is “because we have a relatively low number of confirmed cases, so there is no need to take steps that will have profound social and economic consequences”

What about the unconfirmed cases and the spread they don’t know about.?

Am I missing something here.?

I think we are probably doing the right thing.

We aren't going to stop this now, so it's about spreading the duration. We need to turn the three week peak to a three month peak. So there WILL be a near closedown at the peak time. And it might well last three months. And it might still be 2-3 months away.

Being draconian now doesn't help. Slowing down the rate if spread when we only have a few hundred or thousand cases doesn't help. What you want to do is slow the rate of growth from half a million cases upwards. And if we shut down schools now, that's going to be an extra 2-3 months of parents having to be off work, for no benefit.

Save the big effort for when the tsunami breaks and it's really needed.

I understand what you mean and I agree to an extent.

Where I have difficulty is the quantity of cases.. these are confirmed tested cases, but what about the underlying thousands of untested mild sufferers or non infected carriers.?

I saw on my local news tonight (east mids) that testing would be prioritised on the most ill patients in hospital, and that those self isolating with mild symptoms wouldn’t get tested.

That was on the bbc - yes it may be local but it gave the impression that the count of those infected may end up being artificially small.

I get the argument to spread the load on the nhs but apart from hand washing and old folks not going on cruises, there seems to be little control over this thing spreading..

Are countries like the Netherlands, Denmark, Spain, Czech Republic and Ireland etc making OTT reactions.?

I’m not one for panic measures at all but I have to say I am not reassured by what our government is doing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 12, 2020, 08:02:45 PM
The mortality rate in Italy is looking closer to 5%, I'd snap your hand off for 0.1%

The UK has quite a lot in common with Italy, a large elderly population, lots of people with underlying health conditions, obesity, diabetes and so on.

This is really going to test the NHS.

That's because they have tens of thousands undiagnosed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 12, 2020, 08:08:37 PM
Another factor to consider: in some Italian regions the median age is 47-49. In the UK its 40, and 36.5 in places like London.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 12, 2020, 08:09:35 PM
The mortality rate in Italy is looking closer to 5%, I'd snap your hand off for 0.1%

The UK has quite a lot in common with Italy, a large elderly population, lots of people with underlying health conditions, obesity, diabetes and so on.

This is really going to test the NHS.

That's because they have tens of thousands undiagnosed.

True but there are other factors. The lag between infection and death/recovery for instance. Really they should compare the deaths with  diagnosed from at least seven days before.

The WHO estimate 3.4% which governments have been quick to dismiss. I would not be so sure, it isn't closer to the truth.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: bpoolrover on March 12, 2020, 08:35:19 PM
The worry for Italy is they say it’s getting slightly better in some of the shut down areas and in 2 weeks hope to get them open a little, but surley it will just come back again the minute they do?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: albie on March 12, 2020, 08:48:57 PM
The elephant in the room is the potential for infection to be transmitted before a host shows symptoms.

All well and good telling people to self-isolate with symptoms, but it may be locking the stable door after the horse has bolted.

You could be sat next to someone at football who is infected but does not yet know it. I can't see how stadium events will observe the "social distancing" requirements of a 2m air gap, let alone manage surface contamination.

As we have no present immunity, a precautionary approach has advantages.
I have little faith in the competence of our decision makers......Johnson and Hancock are not fit to be in charge of a shopping trolley IMO.

I hope for the best, but fear it will be worse than it could be.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bristol Red Rover on March 12, 2020, 08:53:39 PM
One small illustration of the chaos. I was due to be filming in London next week for 4 days. Around 600 people would be working there and that's just been cancelled. I know other big shoots have also been cancelled.

I'm doing one with around 100 tomorrow but guessing most filming with over 100 people will go the same way next week, and who knows after that. That's a lot of money just in the cancellations never mind the whole knock on effect in the industry as things can't be simply moved around as key people are booked way into the future.

I think schools will be closed within the week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sprotyrover on March 12, 2020, 09:00:22 PM
London Evening Standard...Boris states between 5 and 10,000 infected in UK

I hope to God that is right.

If there's 10,000 cases and only 10 deaths, maybe the death rate might be a lot lower than we think. I'd take a 0.1% death rate now. It will still mean 30-40,000 dead but that's at the very best end of what we can hope for.
I found it a bit of a concern ,it means there are 5 to 10,000 folks out there who may still be in their work environment with a 'mild cold' merrily infecting all and sundry. And if there is a 5 day incubation period ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 12, 2020, 09:13:12 PM
I was just about to post something similar sproty.

Boris said he isn't closing anything down (unlike many other countries) because he want's to control the outbreak and 'flatten the curve'. How on earth is allowing 10000 infected people to go about there daily business and potentially mingle with crowds large and small 'controlling the outbreak'?

It seems like the opposite to me - they want  these people to go out and spread the virus.

Somebody tell me I am missing something?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: albie on March 12, 2020, 09:39:30 PM
I believe the relevant term is "culpable negligence", when you choose to avoid taking early actions to prevent later impacts.

Who knows if it applies here?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 12, 2020, 10:15:52 PM
Trouble with closing down stuff now is the time that would go on for.

Let's assume there are 10,000 cases now and 50% of us will get it. We are told the crisis time is the peak 3 weeks of the epidemic, at the start of which, 25% of infections have happened and another 50% will happen over those three weeks. THAT is when the total shutdown comes. And at the start of that, we have about 9 million total cases. So we are going to need about a 1000 fold increase in cases from now until the peak three weeks starts. That's 10 doublings.

If the doubling rate is 5 days, which again is the usual rate in epidemic, so we are told, that's 50 days from now, or 7 weeks.

So if we start closing stuff down now, we've got to keep these closures for 2 months before the peak period even starts. Probably longer, because closing down would probably slow the doubling rate. Then you keep the shutdown over the peak period, which again you try to extend over longer than 3 weeks. Then you keep the shutdown on past the peak, because there are still a lot of new cases coming in.



Are we really going to shut down the country for 6 months? Keep kids off school? Keep people off work? Shut down the leisure industry? Shut down large gatherings? The economic and social effects would be horrific.

It's a fine balance and I'm leaving to thinking we are, on balance, probably doing it right.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 12, 2020, 10:26:28 PM
But isn’t that assuming 50% of us will get it, regardless of how or when it slows down.?

If we slow down now, wouldn’t far less people catch it in the long term.? 

Are you saying we shut down when this thing is at its peak, rather than to stop it ever reaching such levels.?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 12, 2020, 10:33:09 PM
No IDM.

That's what the Chief Medical Officer said today. We cannot significantly change the total who will get it. We CAN slow down the rate, but if we go all in now, can we keep that up for 6 months? Maybe it's better to allow it to grow in numbers now, while it is still infecting sufficiently few people for the country to cope, and THEN  go heavy in maybe a month, when the numbers are transitioning from hundreds of thousands to millions. If we have to have a Draconian shutdown for three months, maybe we can cope with that. Having a closedown for months BEFORE that is asking a lot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bristol Red Rover on March 12, 2020, 10:38:01 PM
Trouble with closing down stuff now is the time that would go on for.


Exactly. Much as I'd like to dump a whole lot of anger at Johnson's door, I think the management so far is in the right ball park. Without everyone in quarantine for several months, there isn't another realistic option than to have gone about things as has been done so far. Even with that quarantine, it only takes one microscopic virus to land here and blow the whole plan apart, and that would happen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 12, 2020, 10:44:22 PM
That all sounds fine Billy provided you have unlimited resources and control of time. We are 17000 NHS beds and 40000 nurses short and apparently stretched to capacity already.

This Italian doctor thinks we are doing it wrong and we are going to be overwhelmed quicker than we think. I do hope he is wrong and you and Johnson are right:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-uk-us-response-criticism-boris-trump-italy-a9398166.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 12, 2020, 10:46:01 PM
No IDM.

That's what the Chief Medical Officer said today. We cannot significantly change the total who will get it. We CAN slow down the rate, but if we go all in now, can we keep that up for 6 months? Maybe it's better to allow it to grow in numbers now, while it is still infecting sufficiently few people for the country to cope, and THEN  go heavy in maybe a month, when the numbers are transitioning from hundreds of thousands to millions. If we have to have a Draconian shutdown for three months, maybe we can cope with that. Having a closedown for months BEFORE that is asking a lot.

I understand that, but I thought that a virus might ultimately spread less if restrained.

So regardless of how and when, the total spread would be the same anyway.?

The thought therefore is why are other countries not doing the same.? 

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: bpoolrover on March 12, 2020, 10:52:12 PM
While yes it comes down to boris he is going off what the medical and science people are telling him, what other option has he got but to follow there recommendations
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 12, 2020, 10:55:11 PM
Why is the advice in other counties different, in places like Hungary where there are far fewer cases they have more restrictive measures.?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 12, 2020, 10:57:54 PM
It could just be panic, iDM.

It takes some doing, looking at computer models, weighing up the risks, accepting early setbacks with the hope of acting later... All when there is fear in the air and more could be done immediately.

It's a leap of faith but given where we are.. I think it's probably our best shot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: bpoolrover on March 12, 2020, 11:00:03 PM
Why is the advice in other counties different, in places like Hungary where there are far fewer cases they have more restrictive measures.?
less people could have gone to said countries and passed it on?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 12, 2020, 11:25:46 PM
How on earth are we going to slow down the extent of the spread if testing is only going to focus on patients in hospitals.?

So folks with mild symptoms or even none, ie just carriers, go untested and then uncounted.?  What’s to stop them infecting more vulnerable people.?

I’m a reasonably educated guy and try and see things from a common sense perspective but I find all this really confusing.

To me, it appears that the UK has decided that this virus is here and can’t be stopped, and are only trying to control it to manage it in a timely fashion.?

They seem to accept there will be more deaths as an inevitability whereas it looks like other countries are tying to prevent the fatalities.?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 12, 2020, 11:26:41 PM
That all sounds fine Billy provided you have unlimited resources and control of time. We are 17000 NHS beds and 40000 nurses short and apparently stretched to capacity already.

This Italian doctor thinks we are doing it wrong and we are going to be overwhelmed quicker than we think. I do hope he is wrong and you and Johnson are right:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-uk-us-response-criticism-boris-trump-italy-a9398166.html

Wilts.

Don't do that "you and Johnson" silliness. It's not the time for politicking. I'm listening to the CSA and the CMO, not to Johnson.

As I've said elsewhere, there are massive questions on how we have funded the NHS for a decade and whether we are as prepared as we could have been. The time for political arguments about that is 6 months down the line, not now. Now is the time for getting the response as right as we can.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 12, 2020, 11:29:13 PM
Definitely not a time for politicking..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 12, 2020, 11:29:18 PM
No IDM.

That's what the Chief Medical Officer said today. We cannot significantly change the total who will get it. We CAN slow down the rate, but if we go all in now, can we keep that up for 6 months? Maybe it's better to allow it to grow in numbers now, while it is still infecting sufficiently few people for the country to cope, and THEN  go heavy in maybe a month, when the numbers are transitioning from hundreds of thousands to millions. If we have to have a Draconian shutdown for three months, maybe we can cope with that. Having a closedown for months BEFORE that is asking a lot.

I understand that, but I thought that a virus might ultimately spread less if restrained.

So regardless of how and when, the total spread would be the same anyway.?

The thought therefore is why are other countries not doing the same.? 



I questioned the numbers that we had last night, but maybe I'm wrong. The CSA and CMO are infinitely more likely to be correct than I am.

In which case, we ARE 2-4 weeks further back than most other European countries. So it is not necessarily the case that either they are right or we are. Maybe we are all making more or less the least bad decisions in our particular circumstances?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: albie on March 12, 2020, 11:33:05 PM
I just can't see how non-intervention does anything other than increase the rate of infection in the near term.

This has the effect of bringing the peak forwards, when the objective is to delay the peak, and extend it over a longer period to give relief to the NHS.

Johnson is being led by Cummings and his nudge theory unit. The big idea is that "herd immunity" will be achieved , and the virus will peter out as more become resistant.

We have no idea that this new virus will behave in this way. The evidence to date is that strong interventions at the earliest point have delivered measurable results in China, South Korea and Singapore.

Why we should ignore the emerging evidence base to test an ungrounded theory is just perplexing.
For your consideration;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUzGVw_iacs
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 12, 2020, 11:34:19 PM
No IDM.

That's what the Chief Medical Officer said today. We cannot significantly change the total who will get it. We CAN slow down the rate, but if we go all in now, can we keep that up for 6 months? Maybe it's better to allow it to grow in numbers now, while it is still infecting sufficiently few people for the country to cope, and THEN  go heavy in maybe a month, when the numbers are transitioning from hundreds of thousands to millions. If we have to have a Draconian shutdown for three months, maybe we can cope with that. Having a closedown for months BEFORE that is asking a lot.

I understand that, but I thought that a virus might ultimately spread less if restrained.

So regardless of how and when, the total spread would be the same anyway.?

The thought therefore is why are other countries not doing the same.? 



I questioned the numbers that we had last night, but maybe I'm wrong. The CSA and CMO are infinitely more likely to be correct than I am.

In which case, we ARE 2-4 weeks further back than most other European countries. So it is not necessarily the case that either they are right or we are. Maybe we are all making more or less the least bad decisions in our particular circumstances?

Would you argue that if a country had very few cases then stronger restrictions immediately may stop the spread.?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 12, 2020, 11:54:54 PM
I think we have to accept this thing is out of control and the opportunity to contain it is long since past.

We have to accept the state of our resources, if only the NHS had been better funded and prepared. There is nothing we can do about that now, we are where we are.

Other nations are taking different approaches, well there are different circumstances. Singapore recently experienced an outbreak of SARS and they were prepared for it to happen again. They have gone all out early to try and contain it, with some success but ultimately I don't think they will contain it. How long can they keep this all out war on the virus up for?

I'll give Johnson his due, he does appear to being lead by the experts on this. His press conferences have been much more reassuring than those in the States. Here we have a plan of action and they have experts explaining that plan and to my mind what they are saying does make sense. The virus can't be contained but we might control it somewhat and we can't just let the economy grind to a complete halt for long. That would have worse consequences.

It's easy to look back to the Spanish flu and say this worked best then but it's a different world now. Often the temptation is to fight old wars in the traditional way but this is a new challenge and it's different. I think we've got to trust in the experts and their computer models.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 13, 2020, 12:03:34 AM
He says the experts say closing schools could do more harm than good, but doesn’t expand on why, I’m the same day Ireland closed theirs..

I’m not saying either is the correct or best solution, I do find it very confusing..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 13, 2020, 12:07:16 AM
I just can't see how non-intervention does anything other than increase the rate of infection in the near term.

This has the effect of bringing the peak forwards, when the objective is to delay the peak, and extend it over a longer period to give relief to the NHS.

Johnson is being led by Cummings and his nudge theory unit. The big idea is that "herd immunity" will be achieved , and the virus will peter out as more become resistant.

We have no idea that this new virus will behave in this way. The evidence to date is that strong interventions at the earliest point have delivered measurable results in China, South Korea and Singapore.

Why we should ignore the emerging evidence base to test an ungrounded theory is just perplexing.
For your consideration;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUzGVw_iacs


I respectfully disagree with most of that.

1) The primary aim is not to slow down the arrival of the peak. There IS some benefit to that (pushing the peak into a time when the weather is better so there are fewer other respiratory illnesses) but that is secondary. The primary aim is to SPREAD the peak. There will be a huge spike in cases at the time of the peak and the crucial thing is to try to spread that glut over as many weeks as possible. If we are going to end up with tens of millions of cases, you spread the peak by taking drastic action when the total number of cases is starting to rise towards 1million plus. Taking drastic action now won't help that. But it will stretch our stamina. Impose drastic measures for two months and maybe we can bear it. Impose them for 6 months and we'll break.

2) No-one that I have seen is taking about herd immunity. If they are, they want putting in a sealed box for the duration. Thereis no way of getting immunity to this virus short of getting the virus. In the absence of a vaccine, you are not going to get herd immunity without people succumbing to the virus, so that is self-defeating. Cummings is a megalomaniac, but he's not stupid on basic science, and that would be a very, very stupid thing to propose.

3) Yes, strong action has halted the spread of the virus. But as I say, can you keep that up for the long haul? I'm not convinced that China, Taiwan and Singapore can keep this under control when it is on the loose in the rest of the world. If they CAN, it will be by essentially isolating themselves from the world for a very long period (at least 12 months until there is a vaccine). Do you think we have the social or political will to do that, or the economic resilience to cope with the consequences of doing it?

4) As for your video, I gave up after 45 seconds. I have no axe to grid for Johnson, but a video that takes his words on "taking it on the chin" totally out of context (he went on to say that that is not what we should do) is not helping. It's playing politics. This is absolutely NOT the time for that. For the record, I'd say it was a very clumsy thing for Johnson to say and a sensible politician would not have said it. But to imply that this is our policy is, frankly, disgraceful. https://fullfact.org/health/boris-johnson-coronavirus-this-morning/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 13, 2020, 12:08:28 AM
On reflection I think the thing with the schools is consistent.

We try and keep things ticking over, close them down as infections arise. It's about managing numbers. So more are infected early on and the health service is put under stress. But those cases are being dealt with. Then as the virus ramps up, as it is going to, then we chuck everything we have at it, in the hope the peak will be pushed down, back and out longer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 13, 2020, 12:11:43 AM
No IDM.

That's what the Chief Medical Officer said today. We cannot significantly change the total who will get it. We CAN slow down the rate, but if we go all in now, can we keep that up for 6 months? Maybe it's better to allow it to grow in numbers now, while it is still infecting sufficiently few people for the country to cope, and THEN  go heavy in maybe a month, when the numbers are transitioning from hundreds of thousands to millions. If we have to have a Draconian shutdown for three months, maybe we can cope with that. Having a closedown for months BEFORE that is asking a lot.

I understand that, but I thought that a virus might ultimately spread less if restrained.

So regardless of how and when, the total spread would be the same anyway.?

The thought therefore is why are other countries not doing the same.? 



I questioned the numbers that we had last night, but maybe I'm wrong. The CSA and CMO are infinitely more likely to be correct than I am.

In which case, we ARE 2-4 weeks further back than most other European countries. So it is not necessarily the case that either they are right or we are. Maybe we are all making more or less the least bad decisions in our particular circumstances?

Would you argue that if a country had very few cases then stronger restrictions immediately may stop the spread.?

Yes. I agree. But unless EVERY country does that, the virus is still around. So you can control your own outbreak, but you'd then need to shut yourself off from travel to and from the rest of the world. For a long time. And the economic consequences of that would kill a lot more people and ruin a lot more lives. That's why I'm far from convinced that the strong responses in the Far East have provided a long term solution for those countries.

China is saying that any visitor from anywhere will have to go into quarantine for 14 days. That effectively stops all visitors from going there. No business visits. No technical exchanges. No tourism. No political visits. They may well be able to do that for the year or more that they will need to do before a vaccine could be ready. Can we? I find it very hard to imagine that we could. Or should, because the economic consequences would be crippling, and would end up killing a lot more people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 13, 2020, 12:12:59 AM
On reflection I think the thing with the schools is consistent.

We try and keep things ticking over, close them down as infections arise. It's about managing numbers. So more are infected early on and the health service is put under stress. But those cases are being dealt with. Then as the virus ramps up, as it is going to, then we chuck everything we have at it, in the hope the peak will be pushed down, back and out longer.

Precisely. It's not guaranteed to work, but neither is lockdown for 6 months or more. It seems to me to be a best-guess compromise and that's about the best we can hope for at the moment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 13, 2020, 12:15:28 AM
He says the experts say closing schools could do more harm than good, but doesn’t expand on why, I’m the same day Ireland closed theirs..

I’m not saying either is the correct or best solution, I do find it very confusing..

They were discussing this on the radio while I was driving down the M1 tonight. The argument is a) Are you really going to stop kids mixing for 6 months and picking up the virus? and b) How many of them are going to end up being looked after by grandparents who are in the vulnerable demographics? So, good intentions might lead to vulnerable older people being far more exposed to the virus in large numbers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 13, 2020, 12:17:42 AM
Well BST,

it's new territory, nothing quite lke this has been faced before.

It is a best guess but it's an educated guess and at least there is a clear plan of action. That's reassuring at least.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 13, 2020, 03:02:26 AM
Meanwhile on another planet in a galaxy far far away ........................

''Donald Trump claimed ‘We have tested heavily’ but in fact just eight tests were carried out on Tuesday, as even allies speak out''

''Anger is mounting in the US over the Trump administration’s failure to test for coronavirus on a scale that could contain the outbreak and mitigate its most devastating impacts.

On Thursday the lack of testing capacity for Covid-19 was recognised in blunt terms by one of the top US officials dealing with the crisis. Dr Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, described the current state of affairs as “a failing” at a hearing of the House oversight committee''

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/coronavirus-us-testing-failures-trump-administration

''By contrast South Korea, which has been grappling with one of the most severe outbreaks of Covid-19 globally, tests roughly the same number, about 10,000 people, every day. In total, South Korea has tested 230,000 of its 51 million people – 130 times as many per capita as the US.

The aggressive use of testing to identify carriers of the disease and quarantine them has been credited as a major factor in South Korea’s relative success in dealing with the crisis''

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Ldr on March 13, 2020, 07:25:30 AM
Just a heads up, nurse at my work has advised to look for 70% alcohol content hand sanitizer not 100%. Something to do with how it reacts to cell membrane makes it more effective
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: idler on March 13, 2020, 07:33:01 AM
A guy in the pub was saying last night that he is going on a cruise in the summer and his cruise company have offered him an extra £400 on board spend not to cancel his holiday. There must be loads cancelling.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 13, 2020, 07:55:48 AM
Carnival have dropped anchor for two months

CARNIVAL CANCELS CRUISES AMID CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK, PRINCESS CRUISES LINE SUSPENDS OPERATIONS FOR TWO MONTHS
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 13, 2020, 08:32:55 AM
You know that film where the soldiers are building a bridge at a small hospital outpost. And then word comes the main force has been massacred and it is likely coming their way and the chief of engineers decides not to run but defend it. So they start to build defending walls and put up sandbags. Then they hear a drumming in the distance like a train.

Well, it feels like we're at that point where the sentry runs down off the hill and reports "Zulus Sir, thousands of 'em."
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Ldr on March 13, 2020, 08:41:29 AM
So learn to sing men of harlech and quit whinging 🤣
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 13, 2020, 09:05:29 AM
He says the experts say closing schools could do more harm than good, but doesn’t expand on why, I’m the same day Ireland closed theirs..

I’m not saying either is the correct or best solution, I do find it very confusing..

They were discussing this on the radio while I was driving down the M1 tonight. The argument is a) Are you really going to stop kids mixing for 6 months and picking up the virus? and b) How many of them are going to end up being looked after by grandparents who are in the vulnerable demographics? So, good intentions might lead to vulnerable older people being far more exposed to the virus in large numbers.

Makes sense, and I have probably fallen into the trap of only reading the summaries on the BBC - that sort of explanation wasn’t reported yesterday.

My point is that I am quite reasonable and look at things with common sense before any political ideals etc yet even I get confused with what I am being told.

I don’t say for one moment that I am anything special but there are so many, so many people go respond to headlines only and “Chinese whispers” rumours spread via social media.  For example yesterday someone in our office shouted across the room that all schools would close for a month, from someone “in the know” but this was whilst the government meeting was still going on.!

Yesterday’s announcements seem to show - and I hope I am wrong here - that the government expects more deaths.  Whereas the impression from other countries is that they are doing all they can to prevent fatalities.  I would think a lot of our population would have a difficulty with understanding this.

I get it, I see why we are doing what we are doing, but in the global perspective it’s far more confusing IMHO.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 13, 2020, 09:52:01 AM
Found this - I think the Government are essentially sticking to the framework...

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/213717/dh_131040.pdf
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ravenrover on March 13, 2020, 10:33:34 AM
In light of recent of panic buying UK supermarkets have introduced purchase limits.

Asda: 2 hand sanitisers, 24 toilet rolls max.

Tesco: 1 Hand sanitiser, 18 toilet rolls & 2kg rice.

Co-op: 12 rolls toilet paper, 1Kg rice.

Aldi: 2 Trumpets, 1 diving suit & a MIG welder.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 13, 2020, 10:37:30 AM
IDM

Governments giving an indication that they can keep this to low numbers of deaths are deceiving their populations.

Look at the evidence from the two nearest things we have to controlled experiments.

Diamond Princess ship. A closed environment with C-19. 20% infection rate, 1% mortality rate.


South Korea. Has by far the most aggressive testing policy, so their published figures of cases are probably closer to the real number of cases than anywhere else in the world. And so the mortality rate will be the most accurate, because that comes from dividing a known figure (number who have died from C-19) by the best estimate of an uncertain figure (total cases in SK).

Their mortality rate looks like it is settling down to about 1%.

So, if you don't totally contain this virus, it's not unreasonable to expect 20% of the population to get it. We don't know what that figure will be, but I've not heard a virologist anywhere suggest that it will be much lower than that. Most are saying much higher.

And it's not unreasonable to assume 1% of those die.

So for the UK, the lowest reasonable number of deaths is about 140,000.

Johnson was being perfectly correct yesterday in preparing us for that. Politicians who are not preparing their people in the same way are derelict in their duty.

The massive unknown know is, what happens to that death rate if serious cases can't get hospital treatment at the peak because the health service is overwhelmed. That's when it could get very scary. If the number of cases is much higher than 20% and the death rate goes up it's not a stretch to imagine 500,000 or more deaths.

And THAT is why everything should be focussed on flattening the peak. Not taking panic measures now. If we are not going to contain this (and I cannot see any realistic way that any country can) then we have to slow its spread when it really matters.

As for people using this crisis to make political points, I'd say this. In a couple of months, this thing could kill more British people than died in the whole of WWII. It is THAT serious. In WWII, normal politics was suspended. The country has to have a common front on this.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 13, 2020, 10:42:31 AM
Problem is, much of the population won’t look at things in that much detail.. there is a concern that the proposed measures won’t flatten the peak.?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 13, 2020, 10:44:42 AM
In which case, buckle up because the peak will be worse than anything you can imagine.

If we do not flatten the peak, and the fatality rate goes up because people who should survive cannot get treatment, you can expect 3-4 weeks where 50-100 times more people die than in normal times.

And THAT is why flattening the peak must happen. People like that agitator in the video that Albie posted last night don't help. We're not going to have a revolution in the next month and install a People's Republic that will take China-like measures. Like it or not, our national policy is Delay and Flatten. Not Contain.

Anyone who deliberately undermines that approach and doesn't encourage people to follow advice if Delay and Flatten is, for the next few months, the enemy. We can dissect whether the right decisions were taken after this is over.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 13, 2020, 10:52:40 AM
I understand the need for flattening, it’s more an issue of whether the current measures will achieve that..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 13, 2020, 11:08:30 AM
In which case, buckle up because the peak will be worse than anything you can imagine.

If we do not flatten the peak, and the fatality rate goes up because people who should survive cannot get treatment, you can expect 3-4 weeks where 50-100 times more people die than in normal times.

And THAT is why flattening the peak must happen. People like that agitator in the video that Albie posted last night don't help. We're not going to have a revolution in the next month and install a People's Republic that will take China-like measures. Like it or not, our national policy is Delay and Flatten. Not Contain.

Anyone who deliberately undermines that approach and doesn't encourage people to follow advice if Delay and Flatten is, for the next few months, the enemy. We can dissect whether the right decisions were taken after this is over.

Totally correct...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Donnywolf on March 13, 2020, 11:20:30 AM
I got slated for referring to Asian Flu on here a week or so ago as it had "no relevance" but that boomed from a start similar to this - and in 6 months from June 57 to Christmas 57 three thousand five hundred and fifty people in the UK were dead
We had no social media of course and even Telly was in its infancy and the Asian Flu would have been mentioned I am guessing only during news bulletins. I dont know I was only 6+ - but what I do know it eventually got me and my parents and brother and we were all bed ridden but recovered. I seem to remember we were in bed for "ages" probably a week
So this outbreak essentially (I am guessing) pretty similar to that is a frightening prospect and knowing what to do is difficult because everything you touch in the outside world carries a risk - and the risk is that someone has spread it via touching train seats doors - Open Door buttons - money they paid for Tickets which you get on your change etc etc. I could drive myself batty just thinking about it
However (eventually) I too would think I am more at risk of contracting it in a Supermarket than going to the Game tomorrow

Wolfie you are dead right about 1 thing in your post you definitely won't catch it at the game TOMORROW 😷😄

Hi Ravenrover

You were right about me being right  :laugh: :thumbsup: :laugh:
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: mushRTID on March 13, 2020, 11:27:51 AM
Is it in Donny yet?
I know it probably is but i mean confirmed. Not seen anything
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 13, 2020, 11:30:21 AM
Elite League ice hockey also cancelled........... puck you CV 19.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Red Baron on March 13, 2020, 11:41:12 AM
In which case, buckle up because the peak will be worse than anything you can imagine.

If we do not flatten the peak, and the fatality rate goes up because people who should survive cannot get treatment, you can expect 3-4 weeks where 50-100 times more people die than in normal times.

And THAT is why flattening the peak must happen. People like that agitator in the video that Albie posted last night don't help. We're not going to have a revolution in the next month and install a People's Republic that will take China-like measures. Like it or not, our national policy is Delay and Flatten. Not Contain.

Anyone who deliberately undermines that approach and doesn't encourage people to follow advice if Delay and Flatten is, for the next few months, the enemy. We can dissect whether the right decisions were taken after this is over.

Good to see someone talking sense on this. The CMO or Piers Morgan? I know who I'd rather trust.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 13, 2020, 12:45:35 PM
30 years ago, you know people would have taken the advice on board and society would have continued to operate. Now social media knows better, people on it have more credence than official channels because they have more followers and likes.

If Stormzy started giving out COVID-19 advice it would resonate more with some people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 13, 2020, 01:05:55 PM
apologies if already posted

''Scientists and medics are using this phrase a lot, and it means the highest potential rate of cases. For the UK, the peak is expected to fall in three months’ time, likely in the summer months, and tail off throughout the autumn, the government said. Vallance said that the UK is around four weeks behind Italy, where there have been 1,000 deaths and more than 15,000 cases. The peak also brings the biggest period of challenge for the NHS. There are 5,000 ventilated beds but the service is looking to increase that number. Without a cure, the main treatment is oxygen therapy, which can be provided through a mask, and the NHS is looking to increase supplies''

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/uk-governments-coronavirus-advice-and-why-it-gave-it
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 13, 2020, 01:39:31 PM
apologies if already posted

''Scientists and medics are using this phrase a lot, and it means the highest potential rate of cases. For the UK, the peak is expected to fall in three months’ time, likely in the summer months, and tail off throughout the autumn, the government said. Vallance said that the UK is around four weeks behind Italy, where there have been 1,000 deaths and more than 15,000 cases. The peak also brings the biggest period of challenge for the NHS. There are 5,000 ventilated beds but the service is looking to increase that number. Without a cure, the main treatment is oxygen therapy, which can be provided through a mask, and the NHS is looking to increase supplies''

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/uk-governments-coronavirus-advice-and-why-it-gave-it

I wonder..... could this oxygen therapy be administered at home.... my Mum (now dead God bless her) spent many years using a nebuliser at home to breath in various drugs - this was twenty years ago, but the one she had was linked to a tank of oxygen...   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 13, 2020, 02:29:33 PM
Number of cases up to 798......
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: big fat yorkshire pudding on March 13, 2020, 02:56:09 PM
apologies if already posted

''Scientists and medics are using this phrase a lot, and it means the highest potential rate of cases. For the UK, the peak is expected to fall in three months’ time, likely in the summer months, and tail off throughout the autumn, the government said. Vallance said that the UK is around four weeks behind Italy, where there have been 1,000 deaths and more than 15,000 cases. The peak also brings the biggest period of challenge for the NHS. There are 5,000 ventilated beds but the service is looking to increase that number. Without a cure, the main treatment is oxygen therapy, which can be provided through a mask, and the NHS is looking to increase supplies''

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/uk-governments-coronavirus-advice-and-why-it-gave-it

I wonder..... could this oxygen therapy be administered at home.... my Mum (now dead God bless her) spent many years using a nebuliser at home to breath in various drugs - this was twenty years ago, but the one she had was linked to a tank of oxygen...   

Fairly easy to have a nebuliser at home, I havent needed mine for 10 years now as my health is better, so it's also now defunct, but easy to use at home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 13, 2020, 03:02:10 PM
The case fatality rate from some countries based on existing data.

UK - 1.25%
South Korea - 0.84%
Netherlands - 0.62%
Germany - 0.22%

One of the things that has struck me so far is how the case mortality rate can differ based on location and time. In Wuhan as of Feb 1st it was 5.8% but 0.7% across the rest of China. Last I heard Italy is hovering at 5%. Demographics explain part of the difference, but it seems localised healthcare systems capacity to cope also make a significant difference.

Also read that at the height of the epidemic in China, only 5% of cases were recorded and diagnosed. The scientific lit seem to suggest around 80% of cases are mild (some undetectable) but alot of country specific data is suggestinging its much higher than that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Donnywolf on March 13, 2020, 03:51:10 PM
Number of cases up to 798......

.... and does anyone know how many of the 798 have been cured and moved on

798
-10 (dead unfortunately)
------
788
- ??? ("got over it")
------

------
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 13, 2020, 04:09:13 PM
You aint 'cured', you build up an immunity and move on. I read something about the recovered rate a few days ago (forget where) but apparently most countries don't actually measure that, so don't be waiting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 13, 2020, 04:37:40 PM
I just can't see how non-intervention does anything other than increase the rate of infection in the near term.

This has the effect of bringing the peak forwards, when the objective is to delay the peak, and extend it over a longer period to give relief to the NHS.

Johnson is being led by Cummings and his nudge theory unit. The big idea is that "herd immunity" will be achieved , and the virus will peter out as more become resistant.

We have no idea that this new virus will behave in this way. The evidence to date is that strong interventions at the earliest point have delivered measurable results in China, South Korea and Singapore.

Why we should ignore the emerging evidence base to test an ungrounded theory is just perplexing.
For your consideration;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUzGVw_iacs


I respectfully disagree with most of that.

1) The primary aim is not to slow down the arrival of the peak. There IS some benefit to that (pushing the peak into a time when the weather is better so there are fewer other respiratory illnesses) but that is secondary. The primary aim is to SPREAD the peak. There will be a huge spike in cases at the time of the peak and the crucial thing is to try to spread that glut over as many weeks as possible. If we are going to end up with tens of millions of cases, you spread the peak by taking drastic action when the total number of cases is starting to rise towards 1million plus. Taking drastic action now won't help that. But it will stretch our stamina. Impose drastic measures for two months and maybe we can bear it. Impose them for 6 months and we'll break.

2) No-one that I have seen is taking about herd immunity. If they are, they want putting in a sealed box for the duration. Thereis no way of getting immunity to this virus short of getting the virus. In the absence of a vaccine, you are not going to get herd immunity without people succumbing to the virus, so that is self-defeating. Cummings is a megalomaniac, but he's not stupid on basic science, and that would be a very, very stupid thing to propose.

3) Yes, strong action has halted the spread of the virus. But as I say, can you keep that up for the long haul? I'm not convinced that China, Taiwan and Singapore can keep this under control when it is on the loose in the rest of the world. If they CAN, it will be by essentially isolating themselves from the world for a very long period (at least 12 months until there is a vaccine). Do you think we have the social or political will to do that, or the economic resilience to cope with the consequences of doing it?

4) As for your video, I gave up after 45 seconds. I have no axe to grid for Johnson, but a video that takes his words on "taking it on the chin" totally out of context (he went on to say that that is not what we should do) is not helping. It's playing politics. This is absolutely NOT the time for that. For the record, I'd say it was a very clumsy thing for Johnson to say and a sensible politician would not have said it. But to imply that this is our policy is, frankly, disgraceful. https://fullfact.org/health/boris-johnson-coronavirus-this-morning/

Albie

I apologise about point 2 above. I was wrong on that. I'd missed the herd immunity discussion. I've just heard the CSA talking about it on the radio. He seems to be saying it is possible to use that to slow and spread the peak.

Like you, I'd be very concerned if that is a result of Cummings pushing the CSA into taking that stand.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 13, 2020, 04:49:34 PM
The case fatality rate from some countries based on existing data.

UK - 1.25%
South Korea - 0.84%
Netherlands - 0.62%
Germany - 0.22%

One of the things that has struck me so far is how the case mortality rate can differ based on location and time. In Wuhan as of Feb 1st it was 5.8% but 0.7% across the rest of China. Last I heard Italy is hovering at 5%. Demographics explain part of the difference, but it seems localised healthcare systems capacity to cope also make a significant difference.

Also read that at the height of the epidemic in China, only 5% of cases were recorded and diagnosed. The scientific lit seem to suggest around 80% of cases are mild (some undetectable) but alot of country specific data is suggestinging its much higher than that.

Copps.

Two points. Which act in opposite directions.

1) It's mostly inaccurate to base conclusions on fatality rates on recorded deaths/recorded cases. Because, as you say, the number of recorded cases is in general, a big underestimate of the actual number of cases. So if you DO do it that way, it tends to overestimate the death rate.

2) On the other hand, people don't die immediately when they get the virus. There's a delay of several days. So, when the number of cases is expanding rapidly, even if you know the actual number of cases now, you shouldn't calculate the death rate on recorded total deaths today/actual cases today. You should base it on recorded total deaths today/actual number of cases maybe a week ago. So the denominator is a lot smaller and the actual death rate a lot higher.

South Korea has tested a higher proportion of its population than anywhere. So they probably have the best estimate of total actual cases. And if you look at their recorded deaths/number of recorded cases a week ago, you get a death rate of about 1.1%. Accepting that they won't have picked up every case, that's probably a bit high. But it more or less agrees with what the experts are saying, that something around 1% or a bit less is what they expect. (And they will be doing FAR better modelling than my fag packet calcs here.)

It makes sense to plan for 1% and hope like hell that is pessimistic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: albie on March 13, 2020, 05:31:20 PM
BST,

Fair enough....it is changing rapidly and sometimes the news is behind the curve.

Cummings was meeting the big tech companies (the ones not clobbered in the budget) like Google to discuss working together on Coronavirus. This was just after Johnson did his press conference yesterday.

Cummings has been seeding the idea in soft media sources for the past few days (such as Robert Peston on Twitter).

Herd immunity is a reasonable observation applied to virus infections that behave like Flu. We do not know that is the case with Covid.

The issue is whether you think an early crossover to herd immunity is worth more than reaching that point at a later date. If you are smearing the peak and flattening the curve, you could argue that the later you reach that point, the better the management of the crises has been.

I agree with you about Johnson being quoted out of context in the video, but that was not the reason for posting it. The point is whether or not the UK is in front of the disease, or reactive.

BTW, when a link is posted it does not mean I agree with all of it. I rarely do, but sometimes there are other points of interest raised for debate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 13, 2020, 06:43:28 PM
The case fatality rate from some countries based on existing data.

UK - 1.25%
South Korea - 0.84%
Netherlands - 0.62%
Germany - 0.22%

One of the things that has struck me so far is how the case mortality rate can differ based on location and time. In Wuhan as of Feb 1st it was 5.8% but 0.7% across the rest of China. Last I heard Italy is hovering at 5%. Demographics explain part of the difference, but it seems localised healthcare systems capacity to cope also make a significant difference.

Also read that at the height of the epidemic in China, only 5% of cases were recorded and diagnosed. The scientific lit seem to suggest around 80% of cases are mild (some undetectable) but alot of country specific data is suggestinging its much higher than that.

Copps.

Two points. Which act in opposite directions.

1) It's mostly inaccurate to base conclusions on fatality rates on recorded deaths/recorded cases. Because, as you say, the number of recorded cases is in general, a big underestimate of the actual number of cases. So if you DO do it that way, it tends to overestimate the death rate.

2) On the other hand, people don't die immediately when they get the virus. There's a delay of several days. So, when the number of cases is expanding rapidly, even if you know the actual number of cases now, you shouldn't calculate the death rate on recorded total deaths today/actual cases today. You should base it on recorded total deaths today/actual number of cases maybe a week ago. So the denominator is a lot smaller and the actual death rate a lot higher.

South Korea has tested a higher proportion of its population than anywhere. So they probably have the best estimate of total actual cases. And if you look at their recorded deaths/number of recorded cases a week ago, you get a death rate of about 1.1%. Accepting that they won't have picked up every case, that's probably a bit high. But it more or less agrees with what the experts are saying, that something around 1% or a bit less is what they expect. (And they will be doing FAR better modelling than my fag packet calcs here.)

It makes sense to plan for 1% and hope like hell that is pessimistic.

Which is why I said case morality rate. They will work out the crude death rate eventually, and it will settle on a number.

The point for me is there are clear spatial and temporal differences case morality rates. I would defer to experts on why that is the case but it appears to be combition of a) evironmental/background factors (age, rate of smoking, underlying conditions etc.) and b) a peak in cases (i.e. Northern Italy, Wuhan) overwhelming the ability of healthcare services to offer intensive care.

Which seems to be justification for the flattening the curve approahcch.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: i_ateallthepies on March 13, 2020, 07:33:44 PM
I was listening to a Radio 5 interview yesterday with some professor expert on disease and she spoke about herd immunity.  As I understand what she said was that herd immunity can't happen until the population at large has built up immunity from previous rounds of the disease and that with a new virus such as Covid 19 everyone in the population is 'naive' and has no immunity until they've had and recovered from the illness.  Herd immunity, therefore has no relevance to us for this crisis.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ravenrover on March 13, 2020, 07:38:40 PM
Can someone explain the difference between the symptoms of flu to those of  coronavirus?
Pre Christmas I had a temperature aches and a persistant cough and felt absolutely crap, I had had my annual flu jab in Octobe, lasted about 2 weeks put that down to flu or was I wrong?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: MachoMadness on March 13, 2020, 07:41:21 PM
Coronavirus usually caused fever, a dry cough, and shortness of breath. Normal flu doesn't cause shortness of breath. It's when you get all 3 together that you should start to worry.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 13, 2020, 07:46:55 PM
Can someone explain the difference between the symptoms of flu to those of  coronavirus?
Pre Christmas I had a temperature aches and a persistant cough and felt absolutely crap, I had had my annual flu jab in Octobe, lasted about 2 weeks put that down to flu or was I wrong?

The first recorded case outside of China was 14th Jan in Thailand.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 13, 2020, 08:03:12 PM
I was listening to a Radio 5 interview yesterday with some professor expert on disease and she spoke about herd immunity.  As I understand what she said was that herd immunity can't happen until the population at large has built up immunity from previous rounds of the disease and that with a new virus such as Covid 19 everyone in the population is 'naive' and has no immunity until they've had and recovered from the illness.  Herd immunity, therefore has no relevance to us for this crisis.

Pies.

I'd also assumed that herd immunity couldn't be developed quickly enough to help out this time round.

If I understood the CSA today, I think the idea is that if enough fit and healthy people get C19 in the early days and develop immunity, they are not going to be vectors to transmit the virus later on. So that MAY slow the development of the inevitable peak,which is absolutely the outcome that we want.

It won't reduce the total numbers that get C19 but it is all about flattening the peak and I guess every potential gain helps.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 13, 2020, 08:05:54 PM
A very worrying article on what might be the 'true' mortality rate - which I hope is wrong.

At the moment the mortality rate is taken as the percentage of people who die that day from the number of people who have the virus that day. The authors here have theorised that with an incubation period the 'true' death rate is the no of people who died compared with the no of cases up to 14 days earlier.

This gives a mortality rate of 5% to 20%. As I said I do hope they are wrong.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30195-X/fulltext?fbclid=IwAR3OX6l3ZWRgecGAgZr0zGoBultIDZJnRa_w5aMulgy1G7NmuQZWeNwuirE
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 13, 2020, 08:16:27 PM
I mean, that is just one (extremely skewed in my opinion) way of looking at how you calculate a 'case morality rate'. The key is the last few lines of the first paragraph.

Quote
Notably, the full denominator remains unknown because asymptomatic cases or patients with very mild symptoms might not be tested and will not be identified. Such cases therefore cannot be included in the estimation of actual mortality rates, since actual estimates pertain to clinically apparent COVID-19 cases.

In plane speaking, this virus does not kill anywhere near 5-20% of people infected because we don't know how many people are infected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 13, 2020, 08:20:11 PM
Wilts.

That article is following the same principle that I said in point 2 here, albeit with a longer assumed time from infection to death.

https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=275849.msg954585#msg954585

Two observations.

1) Since they ignore the issue I raised in point 1 of that post, their figures will be a gross overestimate.

2) Assuming the figures on deaths from China and SK, (which appear to have capped new cases) are correct, the MAXIMUM death rates there are about 1-4%. Not using that information in their analysis seems to me to be a gross oversight. To the point that that article is potentially dangerous. I regularly write and review technical papers and reports, and I do see some utter nonsense get through the review process. But in the current circumstances, I'm shocked that a journal as authoritative as The Lancet has allowed that article to be published.

It'll be interesting to see the responses it provokes from other epidemiology experts. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 13, 2020, 08:20:27 PM
I mean, that is just one (extremely skewed in my opinion) way of looking at how you calculate a 'case morality rate'. The key is the last few lines of the first paragraph.

Quote
Notably, the full denominator remains unknown because asymptomatic cases or patients with very mild symptoms might not be tested and will not be identified. Such cases therefore cannot be included in the estimation of actual mortality rates, since actual estimates pertain to clinically apparent COVID-19 cases.

In plane speaking, this virus does not kill anywhere near 5-20% of people infected because we don't know how many people are infected.

Precisely.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ravenrover on March 13, 2020, 09:33:17 PM
Coronavirus usually caused fever, a dry cough, and shortness of breath. Normal flu doesn't cause shortness of breath. It's when you get all 3 together that you should start to worry.
It does when you are asthmatic
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ravenrover on March 13, 2020, 09:43:32 PM
Can someone explain the difference between the symptoms of flu to those of  coronavirus?
Pre Christmas I had a temperature aches and a persistant cough and felt absolutely crap, I had had my annual flu jab in Octobe, lasted about 2 weeks put that down to flu or was I wrong?

The first recorded case outside of China was 14th Jan in Thailand.
But of the symptoms are so flu like would they have known before that date? When did the Health Organisations identify it as a new strain of virus And do we really trust the Chinese Government as to when it all kicked off in China in the 1st place? Let alone the actual numbers of people suffering or carrying the illness?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 13, 2020, 10:16:26 PM
This is an excellent summary of the dilemma for Government in trying to judge the right response.

https://mobile.twitter.com/sjwrenlewis/status/1238579640513564676

By the way, Wren-Lewis is in no way a patsy of this Government. He's been excoriating in his criticism of the economic policy of the past ten years (he's a globally leading macroeconomist). But this is essential reading for everyone. No-one knows what the "right" response is. There are too many variables that we don't understand to be able to say "do THIS and you will minimise the worst effects."

I hope and trust that our Govt and scientific advisers are making honest attempts to do the best they can.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 13, 2020, 10:47:02 PM
Yesterday Johnson said there was no good reason for banning mass events and public gatherings as the science did not show this would be effective at halting the spread of the virus.

This evening Trump threatened to stop flights to the UK.

Johnson has just announced the UK will be banning mass gatherings from next week.

Good job he follows the evidence to make his policies ehh.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/uk-to-ban-mass-gatherings-in-coronavirus-u-turn
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 13, 2020, 11:13:36 PM
Can someone explain the difference between the symptoms of flu to those of  coronavirus?
Pre Christmas I had a temperature aches and a persistant cough and felt absolutely crap, I had had my annual flu jab in Octobe, lasted about 2 weeks put that down to flu or was I wrong?

Major signs from contracting Covid 19 are your face turns bright orange and you start rambling and babbling   :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bristol Red Rover on March 14, 2020, 01:25:06 AM
One possible important factor to consider is the amount of infected people with no symptoms at all. I heard today on the radio via some doc that on that cruise ship it was around 50% of those testing positive that had no symptoms. And then many with mild symptoms. If true, and it makes sense, the death rates are currently very over estiimated. I'm guessing most of the current confirmed cases in the UK, and elsewhere, are ones that are fairly serious.

Still a heck of a lot of people will die.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: albie on March 14, 2020, 02:16:25 AM
I have a difficulty with the assertion that policy is being "guided by the science" when that same policy is not open about the data which is informing decision makers.

The best way is to encourage discussion and potential disagreement by full disclosure. The scientific community can then make an informed view on the basis of common data assumptions.

Peer review is key to decision making in science. It is not a question of trust the CMO, or the CSO, it is a matter of critical assessment of the available evidence, as it changes across time and location.

Here is a pointer from Anthony Costello, ex WHO, about problem areas;
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1238425621375651840.html

No more briefings from Johnson, please......experts only, open about their disagreements.
BJ and Cummings have no democratic mandate for there current strategy devised inside a closed system.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 14, 2020, 04:33:15 AM
What a f***ing weasel, it's hard to believe this man belongs to the same species as the rest of us?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/video/2020/mar/13/coronavirus-trump-slams-reporter-for-nasty-question-over-pandemic-response-team-video
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 14, 2020, 08:17:16 AM
Lol

https://mobile.twitter.com/DailyMail/status/1238542657825263616
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: DonnyOsmond on March 14, 2020, 08:44:06 AM
Lol

https://mobile.twitter.com/DailyMail/status/1238542657825263616

Canada have said the same. America haven't been testing that many people so they have no idea the true figure there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 14, 2020, 08:50:13 AM
Yesterday the medical adviser defended our governments approach saying there is more likelihood to get the virus from family contact or close contact, as opposed to open areas.

So they think events like football are ok as the stadia are open air?  But what about in the crowded concourses and on public transport after the game.?  I found no mention of that, and that is a lack of logic which I cannot understand.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 14, 2020, 08:55:44 AM
Before reading the following tweet it is useful to remind yourself that the over 65's are the most vunerable group to covid-19 and the most likely to suffer serious complications/die, the government have not yet put in place any physical measures to stop the spread of covid-19, and people are panic buying toilet roll:

https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1238611490921484295
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 14, 2020, 08:59:16 AM
There was a government spokesperson on the bbc this morning going on about making money available to help deal with the virus.  The context was the potential for a lack of care workers for elderly and infirm people, especially if some
Of those care workers get the virus too.

How the hell would throwing emergency cash at this generate more trained and approved care workers in a short timescale.?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: idler on March 14, 2020, 09:44:10 AM
Before reading the following tweet it is useful to remind yourself that the over 65's are the most vunerable group to covid-19 and the most likely to suffer serious complications/die, the government have not yet put in place any physical measures to stop the spread of covid-19, and people are panic buying toilet roll:

https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1238611490921484295
Both me and my wife are over 65 Wilts and have little confidence in this government. I also think that the older generation were brought up to go to work and carry on as normal as possible whatever happened, so maybe don't panic as much as younger folk. This may change as more succumb and fatalities rise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ravenrover on March 14, 2020, 09:48:26 AM
Lol

https://mobile.twitter.com/DailyMail/status/1238542657825263616

Canada have said the same. America haven't been testing that many people so they have no idea the true figure there.
Neither does the UK
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 14, 2020, 10:54:25 AM
I have a difficulty with the assertion that policy is being "guided by the science" when that same policy is not open about the data which is informing decision makers.

The best way is to encourage discussion and potential disagreement by full disclosure. The scientific community can then make an informed view on the basis of common data assumptions.

Peer review is key to decision making in science. It is not a question of trust the CMO, or the CSO, it is a matter of critical assessment of the available evidence, as it changes across time and location.

Here is a pointer from Anthony Costello, ex WHO, about problem areas;
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1238425621375651840.html

No more briefings from Johnson, please......experts only, open about their disagreements.
BJ and Cummings have no democratic mandate for there current strategy devised inside a closed system.

Albie.

I entirely agree.

On that topic, something has just struck me. I've not seen anyone raise the issue of having a Coalition Govt for the next 6-9 months, as we did in the War. The threat, in terms of the number of deaths and the potential economic dislocation is at least as big. What we need as you say, is critical oversight and consensus on policy. And again, suspending traditional party politics would be THE clearest way of emphasising how serious this is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 14, 2020, 10:54:58 AM
Before reading the following tweet it is useful to remind yourself that the over 65's are the most vunerable group to covid-19 and the most likely to suffer serious complications/die, the government have not yet put in place any physical measures to stop the spread of covid-19, and people are panic buying toilet roll:

https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1238611490921484295
Both me and my wife are over 65 Wilts and have little confidence in this government. I also think that the older generation were brought up to go to work and carry on as normal as possible whatever happened, so maybe don't panic as much as younger folk. This may change as more succumb and fatalities rise.

This virus forces us to rely more on youth. It is the over 60s who need to isolate themselves, particularly at this stage.

If the virus grows amongst the young, then that is not such such an issue. Then the vexed question of herd immunity raises its head again. If we have a large population of immune younger people who are no longer contagious then it becomes much safer for the older community.

I heard a doctor on the radio yesterday who said if he could he would isolate all the vulnerable in Scotland and shift the rest of the population to Kent to contract the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 14, 2020, 10:56:17 AM
Lol

https://mobile.twitter.com/DailyMail/status/1238542657825263616

I'm assuming trump doesn't do irony Wilts?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 14, 2020, 10:59:51 AM
My take on the question of herd immunity.

The WHO and most countries are still advocating a scramble to try and contain the virus. They want to build a wall against the virus but I think we can see in the numbers that this is not really working. The hope is if they stay locked down hard and long enough some form of treatment might come along to save the day... But we know a vaccine is at least twelve months away and probably eighteen months away. Can the economy really sustain a hard lockdown for a whole year???

If it can't then the lockdown will begin to break and when it does there is every possibility that the virus will start again in a deadly second wave.

The WHO still hopes the virus can be contained and stopped.
The WHO thinks we can lockdown for an indefinite amount of time.
The WHO is hoping for a quick vaccine or treatment.

To me all these seem like vain hopes.

The UK government wants to delay the lock down right until the virus begins to really ramp up. That way there will be some early exposure of the population, whilst taking measures to isolate the vulnerable. The NHS can begin to deal with an increase in cases. When the lock down comes in an effort to suppress the peak and delay the virus, immunity in the population will be growing. The hope is when a shorter lockdown is lifted there won't be the second wave and the desperate need for a vaccine will be lessened. The hope is the economy will also cope better, this isn't putting money before lives. We all need a functioning economy to survive this.

It is a gamble but then the WHO are taking a gamble too and to me I think their approach is the more panic driven. The big objection the WHO seem to raise is that the UK approach is untested.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 14, 2020, 11:01:04 AM
What a f***ing weasel, it's hard to believe this man belongs to the same species as the rest of us?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/video/2020/mar/13/coronavirus-trump-slams-reporter-for-nasty-question-over-pandemic-response-team-video

https://mobile.twitter.com/mviser/status/1238558531562897414

Trump literally makes my skin crawl. He is the archetypal pathetic bully. He swing punches at people weaker than him, but when someone corners him, his response, ALWAYS is to cower and say "Wasn't me".

What a decline from the sort of thing a true leader says, like "The buck stops here" to "It wasn't me, Tony did it."

Utterly, absolutely pathetic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 14, 2020, 11:10:04 AM
I think policy U-turns are something we are going to have to get used to with a government hiring weirdo's and misfits.


''The WHO director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said all possible action should be taken: “Not testing alone. Not contact tracing alone. Not quarantine alone. Not social distancing alone. Do it all.”

Hours later, in a significant change of tack, Downing Street signalled it was preparing to stop large public events, including sports fixtures and concerts, to alleviate the pressure on police and the ambulance service. It did not specify what size of event would be affected, and the timing of the clampdown has yet to be decided, but it is expected to come into force in a week’s time''

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/uk-to-ban-mass-gatherings-in-coronavirus-u-turn

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 14, 2020, 11:14:44 AM
I actually think closing mass gatherings is sensible. Take the football, a lot of older people go to watch the football, it's an open invitation to the virus.

The same is true with church services, and I think they should be cancelled now.

Schools and universities though I think should remain open for the time being.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 14, 2020, 11:20:15 AM
totally agree RD, the decision not to act sooner was wrong, obviously wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 14, 2020, 11:30:37 AM
Sheffield University has a C-19 case and is stopping all face to face teaching.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thestar.co.uk/health/university-sheffield-confirms-staff-member-has-coronavirus-it-suspends-face-face-teaching-2450517%3famp

Sensible precaution.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 14, 2020, 11:34:29 AM
Sheffield University has a C-19 case and is stopping all face to face teaching.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thestar.co.uk/health/university-sheffield-confirms-staff-member-has-coronavirus-it-suspends-face-face-teaching-2450517%3famp

Sensible precaution.

Maybe. These are young people though.

Perhaps if they check who has been exposed and deep clean the buildings it ought to be enough to reopen quickly?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 14, 2020, 11:59:08 AM
I wonder what effect the possibility of being held corporately responsible for deaths will have on a decision like that.

Football matches are one thing. Spectators choose to go to them.

University classes are a requirement of being a student. The University requires students to attend large gatherings. I'd have thought it inevitable that there would be some students' families who would litigate if their child fell ill.

And then there's the practical issue. Some students would have chosen not to attend large classes. Is it fair for them to be penalised?

This is a little microcosm of the way in which C-19 will produce societal problems beyond the immediate health crisis.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bristol Red Rover on March 14, 2020, 12:07:10 PM
....On that topic, something has just struck me. I've not seen anyone raise the issue of having a Coalition Govt for the next 6-9 months, as we did in the War. The threat, in terms of the number of deaths and the potential economic dislocation is at least as big. What we need as you say, is critical oversight and consensus on policy. And again, suspending traditional party politics would be THE clearest way of emphasising how serious this is.

That's not going to happen, esp with the Tories. Even if they could work cross party, it would mean giving credibiity to some Labour MPs, probably including Corbyn and the leadership candidates.

I do wonder how much Cummings is trying to keep out of all this. For him and his needs, and all the elite wealthy, this is gold in the bank whatever happens.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 14, 2020, 12:12:38 PM
It is a can of worms for sure BST.

We have a teenager who has come home from school with news that a member of staff has reported having the symptoms. We don't know who it is but we do know it's not a teacher. We know this staff member hasn't been tested yet.

For now, we have been told school won't reopen until Wednesday when it's had a deep clean.

We are waiting for news but I can see the school being forced to close for some time because of the issues you mention.

Obviously our girl is devastated at the prospect of being forced to stay at home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 14, 2020, 12:14:36 PM
Sheffield University has a C-19 case and is stopping all face to face teaching.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thestar.co.uk/health/university-sheffield-confirms-staff-member-has-coronavirus-it-suspends-face-face-teaching-2450517%3famp

Sensible precaution.

Maybe. These are young people though.

Perhaps if they check who has been exposed and deep clean the buildings it ought to be enough to reopen quickly?

It's not that easy. Not all students are young. I have many over 50 that I teach/supervise - there is usually a small percentage in every class. And then there is the staff - the image of crusty old professors in a small room with books still holds true in many institutions. Universities are perfect breeding ground for the spread of the virus, having copious numbers of meetings is a requirement of the job (across academic departments, with societal stakeholders), my whole academic life is taken up with meetings, sometimes meetings about meetings. (as is international travel more common).

Then there's the students... halls of residence, travelling home in the holidays, generally a more carefree attitude to life .... you get the picture.

My university has advised staff to do all classes online for the remainder of the academic year. Its perfectly doable. I use a lot of interactive-digital material in my courses anyway so its already a commonly established practice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Red Baron on March 14, 2020, 12:25:08 PM
I have a difficulty with the assertion that policy is being "guided by the science" when that same policy is not open about the data which is informing decision makers.

The best way is to encourage discussion and potential disagreement by full disclosure. The scientific community can then make an informed view on the basis of common data assumptions.

Peer review is key to decision making in science. It is not a question of trust the CMO, or the CSO, it is a matter of critical assessment of the available evidence, as it changes across time and location.

Here is a pointer from Anthony Costello, ex WHO, about problem areas;
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1238425621375651840.html

No more briefings from Johnson, please......experts only, open about their disagreements.
BJ and Cummings have no democratic mandate for there current strategy devised inside a closed system.

Albie.

I entirely agree.

On that topic, something has just struck me. I've not seen anyone raise the issue of having a Coalition Govt for the next 6-9 months, as we did in the War. The threat, in terms of the number of deaths and the potential economic dislocation is at least as big. What we need as you say, is critical oversight and consensus on policy. And again, suspending traditional party politics would be THE clearest way of emphasising how serious this is.

As Jeremy Corbyn will no longer be Leader of the Opposition in a few weeks time, I think it becomes a greater possibility.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: tyke1962 on March 14, 2020, 12:27:02 PM
I have a difficulty with the assertion that policy is being "guided by the science" when that same policy is not open about the data which is informing decision makers.

The best way is to encourage discussion and potential disagreement by full disclosure. The scientific community can then make an informed view on the basis of common data assumptions.

Peer review is key to decision making in science. It is not a question of trust the CMO, or the CSO, it is a matter of critical assessment of the available evidence, as it changes across time and location.

Here is a pointer from Anthony Costello, ex WHO, about problem areas;
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1238425621375651840.html

No more briefings from Johnson, please......experts only, open about their disagreements.
BJ and Cummings have no democratic mandate for there current strategy devised inside a closed system.

Albie.

I entirely agree.

On that topic, something has just struck me. I've not seen anyone raise the issue of having a Coalition Govt for the next 6-9 months, as we did in the War. The threat, in terms of the number of deaths and the potential economic dislocation is at least as big. What we need as you say, is critical oversight and consensus on policy. And again, suspending traditional party politics would be THE clearest way of emphasising how serious this is.


The country voted emphatically not to have Labour representation inside Downing Street .

If we had a government without a majority then you'd probably make a decent point given the circumstances facing the UK at this moment .

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: big fat yorkshire pudding on March 14, 2020, 12:41:21 PM
Sheffield University has a C-19 case and is stopping all face to face teaching.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thestar.co.uk/health/university-sheffield-confirms-staff-member-has-coronavirus-it-suspends-face-face-teaching-2450517%3famp

Sensible precaution.

If only they'd done that when I was a student there and caught swine flu pretty badly.

Sensibke thing to do, these things spread through unis really quickly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: tyke1962 on March 14, 2020, 12:46:19 PM
A remarkable story , a million miles away from the selfish panic buyer's of today .



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-35064071
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 14, 2020, 12:49:46 PM
I have a difficulty with the assertion that policy is being "guided by the science" when that same policy is not open about the data which is informing decision makers.

The best way is to encourage discussion and potential disagreement by full disclosure. The scientific community can then make an informed view on the basis of common data assumptions.

Peer review is key to decision making in science. It is not a question of trust the CMO, or the CSO, it is a matter of critical assessment of the available evidence, as it changes across time and location.

Here is a pointer from Anthony Costello, ex WHO, about problem areas;
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1238425621375651840.html

No more briefings from Johnson, please......experts only, open about their disagreements.
BJ and Cummings have no democratic mandate for there current strategy devised inside a closed system.

Albie.

I entirely agree.

On that topic, something has just struck me. I've not seen anyone raise the issue of having a Coalition Govt for the next 6-9 months, as we did in the War. The threat, in terms of the number of deaths and the potential economic dislocation is at least as big. What we need as you say, is critical oversight and consensus on policy. And again, suspending traditional party politics would be THE clearest way of emphasising how serious this is.


The country voted emphatically not to have Labour representation inside Downing Street .

If we had a government without a majority then you'd probably make a decent point given the circumstances facing the UK at this moment .



We had a democratically elected Govt with a huge majority in May 1940. I don't understand your point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 14, 2020, 01:07:59 PM
I actually think closing mass gatherings is sensible. Take the football, a lot of older people go to watch the football, it's an open invitation to the virus.

The same is true with church services, and I think they should be cancelled now.

Schools and universities though I think should remain open for the time being.

Problem with football isn’t so much sitting in the open air stadia, more the crowds on the concourse and on public transport before and after.

That pisses me off that the government advisors have said nowt about that..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 14, 2020, 01:25:11 PM
I’ve heard this morning there is a confirmed case in Dunscroft
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ravenrover on March 14, 2020, 01:25:45 PM
Just lighten the mood
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sprotyrover on March 14, 2020, 02:01:30 PM
My observation, it's mainly the religious countries that are worst affected, elderly folks regularly go to church and in Italy/Spain/ Eire most days
The Muslim countries will suffer if I am unfortunately correct.yesterday Friday my mate was doing joinery work in Burngreave Mosque. it was Packed all day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bristol Red Rover on March 14, 2020, 02:07:49 PM
"Worst affected" -  we have a very varied take on how many cases there are in various countries, too many variables in the under reporting to get a real perspective. The key is anyway in the critical cases and deaths. The worst affected are ones with poorer health care services and less ability to avoid a spike in cases. But the picture is only barely emerging, and even then is dependent on political forces not giving out true figures even if they do have them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: tyke1962 on March 14, 2020, 03:24:37 PM
I have a difficulty with the assertion that policy is being "guided by the science" when that same policy is not open about the data which is informing decision makers.

The best way is to encourage discussion and potential disagreement by full disclosure. The scientific community can then make an informed view on the basis of common data assumptions.

Peer review is key to decision making in science. It is not a question of trust the CMO, or the CSO, it is a matter of critical assessment of the available evidence, as it changes across time and location.

Here is a pointer from Anthony Costello, ex WHO, about problem areas;
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1238425621375651840.html

No more briefings from Johnson, please......experts only, open about their disagreements.
BJ and Cummings have no democratic mandate for there current strategy devised inside a closed system.

Albie.

I entirely agree.

On that topic, something has just struck me. I've not seen anyone raise the issue of having a Coalition Govt for the next 6-9 months, as we did in the War. The threat, in terms of the number of deaths and the potential economic dislocation is at least as big. What we need as you say, is critical oversight and consensus on policy. And again, suspending traditional party politics would be THE clearest way of emphasising how serious this is.


The country voted emphatically not to have Labour representation inside Downing Street .

If we had a government without a majority then you'd probably make a decent point given the circumstances facing the UK at this moment .



We had a democratically elected Govt with a huge majority in May 1940. I don't understand your point.

Whilst this maybe a serious situation facing the UK and the rest of the world there's absolutely no way you can compare it to May 1940 .

The Luftwaffe aren't bombing our cities every evening and we have hundreds made homeless almost every night .

A decision isn't needed to be made about who goes to fight the Nazi's and who stays at home to service the war effort .

There isn't a decision to be made on rationing and there's unlikely to be given what we know already about the virus .

There's no need to seperate kids from their parents and evacuate them to the countryside .

The government has enough means to financially fight the crisis without having to go to Washington and borrow billions of dollars which will take 50 years to pay back plus interest .

It's a virus and there will be a vaccination , nobody is trying to invade us , conquer us and change our way of life forever .

It's unlikely the virus will claim 85 million lifes as WW2 did .

It's a crisis not a worldwide catastrophe .
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 14, 2020, 03:34:49 PM
This virus will kill a similar order of magnitude number of Britons as died in WWII.

In WWII, the deaths occurred over 6 years. This will mainly occur over a few weeks.

Worldwide, if the infection rate is 50% and the death rate 1%, both reasonable assumptions, there will be 40 million deaths in a few weeks.

It is a collosal global and national crisis.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 14, 2020, 03:34:59 PM
Allende Foster has revealed Northern Ireland is making preparations to close schools for a total of 16 weeks.

The time has not come yet but that's in the pipeline. It will be the same here.

It gives you some idea of the scale of this thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: tyke1962 on March 14, 2020, 04:07:32 PM
This virus will kill a similar order of magnitude number of Britons as died in WWII.

In WWII, the deaths occurred over 6 years. This will mainly occur over a few weeks.

Worldwide, if the infection rate is 50% and the death rate 1%, both reasonable assumptions, there will be 40 million deaths in a few weeks.

It is a collosal global and national crisis.

Just to offer a bit of perspective Billy .



https://fullfact.org/online/coronavirus-daily-deaths/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 14, 2020, 04:20:05 PM
This virus will kill a similar order of magnitude number of Britons as died in WWII.

In WWII, the deaths occurred over 6 years. This will mainly occur over a few weeks.

Worldwide, if the infection rate is 50% and the death rate 1%, both reasonable assumptions, there will be 40 million deaths in a few weeks.

It is a collosal global and national crisis.

Just to offer a bit of perspective Billy .



https://fullfact.org/online/coronavirus-daily-deaths/

It is important to note this doesn't compare like with like and it is important to remember we are only at the begining of this emergency.

Lies, damn lies and statistics.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: albie on March 14, 2020, 04:25:44 PM
Tyke,

I think you should consider the opinion of Richard Horton, editor of The Lancet;
https://twitter.com/richardhorton1

The letter to the Times sums up the need to provide the information to back up the policy choices of the government.

There is a concern that when Johnson talks about "the science", he means behavioral science, Dominic Cummings pet project. The wider scientific community mean Epidemiology should lead, with BS following behind that primary concern.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: tyke1962 on March 14, 2020, 04:45:31 PM
Tyke,

I think you should consider the opinion of Richard Horton, editor of The Lancet;
https://twitter.com/richardhorton1

The letter to the Times sums up the need to provide the information to back up the policy choices of the government.

There is a concern that when Johnson talks about "the science", he means behavioral science, Dominic Cummings pet project. The wider scientific community mean Epidemiology should lead, with BS following behind that primary concern.


I take your point albie .

I'm just extremely wary of Billy's back door Labour power share view and it's MP's and members intentions on let's say another high profile matter going on in Brussels and to underline the point the electorate don't want em in Downing Street full stop .

Whether the government is handling this crisis well I simply couldn't say .

Time will be its judge I guess .

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 14, 2020, 05:15:40 PM
Tyke.

Do you understand the concept of exponential growth in epidemics? If not, I suggest you do a bit of research before you wade in here again.

And suggesting I am wanting to get Labour into Government by the backdoor is beneath contempt. If that's you're level of contribution, you are going on block. Utterly contemptible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Ldr on March 14, 2020, 05:18:15 PM
To be fair to Tyke BST that's how it came across, intentional or not
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 14, 2020, 05:24:21 PM
Ldr.

That is 100% NOT what I meant and I fail to see how you come to that conclusion unless you go in EXPECTING someone to be looking for advantage out if a national crisis.

If you read the number of times I've said on here that this is not the time to be playing politics and then come to that conclusion, you might want to consider your own thought processes.

The reason you have National Coalition governments in moments of crisis is to make sure you are building your Govt from the best talent available, not (deliberately or inadvertently) taking decisions that ignore other possibilities because of ideological blind spots,  and taking as many people with you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Ldr on March 14, 2020, 05:25:49 PM
Mate, at times we all can fail to see how we come across to others, especially in text.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 14, 2020, 05:30:21 PM
Accepted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: adamtherover on March 14, 2020, 05:33:38 PM
This virus will kill a similar order of magnitude number of Britons as died in WWII.

In WWII, the deaths occurred over 6 years. This will mainly occur over a few weeks.

Worldwide, if the infection rate is 50% and the death rate 1%, both reasonable assumptions, there will be 40 million deaths in a few weeks.

It is a collosal global and national crisis.
Sorry BST but this is about as sensationising as you have ever been. Theres 150000 recorded cases,  that would figure would have to double 15 times, to reach half of the worlds population, look at the current new rate figures, they seem to average out about 10% of existing cases.  So would take 150 days to reach your claim that "a few weeks is all that's needed"

Plus lock down as.evident in China almost stops the disease in its tracks, do you think this this will run wild through the world unchecked!!
You accused me of fighting the facts, look at the china model, after lock down. But seem to ignore that completely when giving doomsday scenarios about millions dieing!!

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: tyke1962 on March 14, 2020, 05:34:45 PM
Tyke.

Do you understand the concept of exponential growth in epidemics? If not, I suggest you do a bit of research before you wade in here again.

And suggesting I am wanting to get Labour into Government by the backdoor is beneath contempt. If that's you're level of contribution, you are going on block. Utterly contemptible.

Fair enough Billy I'll withdraw my remark and apologise to you personally as a Labour member .

However given the way the last four years have played out and the colours shown by a significant number of Labour Remainers I wouldn't be withdrawing it as a collective thing .

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 14, 2020, 05:53:47 PM
Adam.

1) Listen to the epidemiologists who study these things every working day. They say epidemics generally double in numbers every 5 days.

So, 15 doublings would take 75 days. 10.5 weeks.

Even if they are wrong and the 10% per day increase is right the doubling rate is 7.2 days. So 15 doublings in 108 days, or 15 weeks.

The CSA said yesterday to expect the peak in 10-14 weeks.

Like I say, I just don't understand why you keep arguing with ME on this, when all I am doing is repeating what global experts in the subject are saying.

And yes, like I've been saying for weeks, China cut this by closing the country down. There is no country in the West willing or able to do this. Not least because of the number of people who simply will not accept expert advice.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: tyke1962 on March 14, 2020, 05:54:07 PM
If the government want to do something that will have a major impact on people's working lives especially those just about surviving which is significant then I suggest they raise the statutory sick pay entitlement to the level of the minimum wage .

This should be implemented straight away and remain as long as the virus remains an official pandemic .

Over to you Boris .
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: albie on March 14, 2020, 06:08:01 PM
New York Times has an article on the explosive potential of exponential growth;
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/science/coronavirus-math-mitigation-distancing.html?smtyp=cur

The cost of delay is many more infections in the near term.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: adamtherover on March 14, 2020, 06:11:46 PM
Adam.

1) Listen to the epidemiologists who study these things every working day. They say epidemics generally double in numbers every 5 days.

So, 15 doublings would take 75 days. 10.5 weeks.

Even if they are wrong and the 10% per day increase is right the doubling rate is 7.2 days. So 15 doublings in 108 days, or 15 weeks.

The CSA said yesterday to expect the peak in 10-14 weeks.

Like I say, I just don't understand why you keep arguing with ME on this, when all I am doing is repeating what global experts in the subject are saying.

And yes, like I've been saying for weeks, China cut this by closing the country down. There is no country in the West willing or able to do this. Not least because of the number of people who simply will not accept expert advice.


what part of anything ive wrote had anything to do with experts or their analysis?

And I quote  " there will be 40 million deaths in a few weeks"

No where have I said bad things are not going to happen, its your sheer insistence of the end of days is coming!!!!

If china started this thing in January and have only 80k cases and its stopped to a trickle, where are the 4 billion cases coming from.  That's a simple question with no scientific bias behind it, just wondering. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: adamtherover on March 14, 2020, 06:14:43 PM
For what its worth, if a full lock down is needed, I'm all for it, a couple of weeks of hardship hopefully financially helped by bojo,  and stop the spread!!
No one Is saying this thing ain't serious, just how serious is still to be determined..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 14, 2020, 06:19:40 PM
Adam.

You are constantly pushing back on what I write. But all I am writing is what experts are saying.

When you say "It's stopped to a trickle" in China that hasn't happened by the virus stopping itself.

It's happened because China closed itself down.

Barring one or two other places, that is simply not happening or going to happen. That means 6.5 billion people are exposed to this. .
Do the maths. 50% infection rate and 1% death rate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 14, 2020, 06:20:58 PM
Adam.
But it is NOT a couple of weeks.

It takes 6-8 weeks at least to eradicate it in your own country. Then you need to prevent it coming back in again from outside, by the most Draconian border controls. It is not going to happen here. We are not set up to do it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: adamtherover on March 14, 2020, 06:30:44 PM
And that's my point, italy is in lock down,  and their cases are currently at 16% gain over the last 24hrs, many probably infected before lock down.  The spread has effectively been halted.. are we saying that many countries no matter how bad it gets will.just permit it to run its course, even after seeing how other countries with early high rates dealt with it?  And even italy as a hot spot, is a 1 in 300 infected rate.  No one can predict how the worlds governments will react,  are we saying that bojo is ignoring the advice of his health advisers,  or are they happy that full lockdown isnt needed?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: adamtherover on March 14, 2020, 06:33:17 PM
Adam.
But it is NOT a couple of weeks.

It takes 6-8 weeks at least to eradicate it in your own country. Then you need to prevent it coming back in again from outside, by the most Draconian border controls. It is not going to happen here. We are not set up to do it.
WELL DONT WRITE IN A FEW WEEKS THEN!!!!!!  You saw what I stated "and I quote"  YOUR WORDS!!!

and is there really any need to shout?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ravenrover on March 14, 2020, 06:59:28 PM
BST can I ask you a simple question , do you believe the figures coming out of China?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rich1471 on March 14, 2020, 07:10:29 PM
French Prime Minister Edouard Philippe has ordered the closure of all non-essential public locations from midnight (23:00 GMT Saturday) in response to the coronavirus outbreak.

The measure applies to restaurants, cafes, cinemas and discos, as well as non-essential businesses.

Mr Philippe also called on French people to reduce their travel, especially between towns.

France reported a sharp rise in cases on Saturday, from 3,661 to 4,499.

It recorded 12 more deaths, bringing the toll to 79. from the bbc
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 14, 2020, 07:11:39 PM
Raven.

I'm not convinced to be honest. It looks too good to be true.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 14, 2020, 07:13:06 PM
If the government want to do something that will have a major impact on people's working lives especially those just about surviving which is significant then I suggest they raise the statutory sick pay entitlement to the level of the minimum wage .

This should be implemented straight away and remain as long as the virus remains an official pandemic .

Over to you Boris .

I think you have just highlighted here why there will not be a coalition government - the Labour Party, TUC & unions will be asking for measures to help the public and their members (especially NHS & care staff) whilst Johnson has made clear with the budget what his policy is. And it ain't sourcing extra ICU beds, ventilators, PPE equipment for GP's & care staff or a sick pay incentive for the gig economy workers.

I believe the Australian government have given a lump sum incentive to every Australian worker (is this correct Sydney)?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 14, 2020, 07:29:26 PM
The Chinese figures have to be taken with a pinch of salt.

They have changed how they measure the virus multiple times, the virus still seems to be holding back industry, when the Chinese claim things are getting back to normal.

Better to look at South Korea and Italy to get a less opaque view of how things really progress.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 14, 2020, 07:41:12 PM
Adam

1) I'm not sure where you are getting your numbers from. Italy has had a 19.8% increase today. It had a 16.9% increase on Friday and a 21% increase on Thursday. In what world is that an effective halting of the spread?

2) When I said "in a few weeks" I was talking about the time over which the peak of the epidemic will take, when it comes. It will be like nothing you can imagine, the way the numbers will rise.

3) Like I say, you CAN contain this. In theory. By closing down your country to a level that no one in Britain has ever experienced. Keeping that closedown for 6-8 weeks. And then isolating your country to the outside world for 18 months until there is a vaccine.

You think ANY country is going to be able to do that? China, apparently, has just done the easy and low cost bit of that. If they let down their guard once over keeping out infections from the outside world all that effort will be wasted.

And if you CAN do that, what is the economic cost? It will run into many tens of % of GDP. And modern democracies are simply not designed to withstand that sort of shock.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 14, 2020, 07:43:24 PM
Slightly off topic but related. It occurred to me seeing the news that Jet2 turned some of their flights to Spain around, very soon we are going to see an almost complete grounding of the airline industry.

That should give us some interesting data in relation to the concept of global dimming and perhaps reveal if the climate crisis is actually more advanced than we realise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ravenrover on March 14, 2020, 07:44:43 PM
Raven.

I'm not convinced to be honest. It looks too good to be true.
Thank you
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sandy Lane on March 14, 2020, 07:48:32 PM
Well at least for a change of scene, here is an update from New York. 

Mass closings have started here in upstate New York.  Seemed like this week is when it all just took off.  A town outside New York City is on lockdown (New Rochelle) and the National Guard is giving out food and meds to people in this area in hopes of containing it.  But I think containment is pretty much out the window now.

We are about 100 miles north of there but many schools are closing for a week or two and it was agreed that those schools won’t lose government aid.  A lot of them are teaching remotely, but it’s a question of whether schools in the poorer districts should remain open to help those kids who may need school breakfasts and lunches.  Plus they don’t have school provided computers for remote learning.

Supermarkets are surreal with empty shelves - yes toilet paper is gone but also chicken.  I guess we can’t get enough of our chlorinated chicken!  Lol

Trump has finally allowed the experts to speak though he can’t help himself and still downplays the severity of our outbreak.  We are finally setting up drive though test centers with testing kits which actually work.  Only two months too late.  The growth weekly is exploding now. They are saying within a week or 10 days we may be as bad as Italy is.

I am reading article after article that this is pretty much the end of Trump’s presidency as it’s clear his delay is costing us many many lives.  Once history is written we will see he didn’t need to kill someone on 5th Ave, because he will be indirectly responsible for many other deaths due to his inaction. 

Also (sort of) amusing are the people who for so long poo poo’d this as a hoax.  They now hopefully will realize where the ‘deep state’ really is.

Hope you are all well there, have food in the pantry and medication available.  Many shortages here, but it’s certainly worth the inconvenience if people are able to come through this alive and kicking.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: tyke1962 on March 14, 2020, 07:50:51 PM
If the government want to do something that will have a major impact on people's working lives especially those just about surviving which is significant then I suggest they raise the statutory sick pay entitlement to the level of the minimum wage .

This should be implemented straight away and remain as long as the virus remains an official pandemic .

Over to you Boris .

I think you have just highlighted here why there will not be a coalition government - the Labour Party, TUC & unions will be asking for measures to help the public and their members (especially NHS & care staff) whilst Johnson has made clear with the budget what his policy is. And it ain't sourcing extra ICU beds, ventilators, PPE equipment for GP's & care staff or a sick pay incentive for the gig economy workers.

I believe the Australian government have given a lump sum incentive to every Australian worker (is this correct Sydney)?

The one nation Tory and levelling up narrative clearly has an early test of it's substance then Wilts .

Obviously my gut instinct tells me how this plays out but despite my anti EU stance I didn't vote Tory and I never will .

Although I know many people who did and aren't exactly rolling in money , many of whom who I work with in the area between Barnsley and Huddersfield and we were told last week that statutory sick pay is all we will receive should we fall victim to the virus , self isolate as a precaution or the company shuts it doors for a number of weeks .

Some interesting conversations ahead potentially for Johnson's new found friends to think about .
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: adamtherover on March 14, 2020, 07:54:17 PM
Raven.

I'm not convinced to be honest. It looks too good to be true.
yet you accuse others of fighting the facts? 🤔🤔
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: drfcdrfc on March 14, 2020, 08:03:39 PM
To be fair to Tyke BST that's how it came across, intentional or not

I didn't see that, in any way, shape or form. To be fair, BST has been clear that this isn't about politics. Right now, it's far bigger. We all know this, surely?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: drfchound on March 14, 2020, 08:11:45 PM
Does anyone on this forum actually know anyone who has caught this virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: tyke1962 on March 14, 2020, 08:13:24 PM
Billly

If you have put me on Block , whatever that means on this board and I say this as you haven't acknowledge my apology to your good self .

Bit of a poor do in my opinion Billy , I thought the restriction on debate in this day and age was a Johnson government strategy .

Which makes you ..........
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 14, 2020, 08:19:04 PM
Does anyone on this forum actually know anyone who has caught this virus.

Yep. Mother of one of my eldest classmates.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 14, 2020, 08:20:51 PM
Tyke

I've had it up to my back teeth having the things I say twisted or ignored by you. There's no dialogue. Speak with you is like shovelling ideas into a black hole, and having your same argument come back every time. So I'm just going to step out now. Have fun.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 14, 2020, 08:24:55 PM
Raven.

I'm not convinced to be honest. It looks too good to be true.
yet you accuse others of fighting the facts? 🤔🤔

Adam.
I'm not saying they are wrong. I'm saying that it stretches credibility to drop new infections from 4 figures to single digits in a month. And of course, being the society it is, it is very difficult to hear any data that's not Govt approved.

South Korea had a similar scale of outbreak, mainly confined to one part of one city. They have had THE most aggressive lockdown of any democracy (and it is not a democracy like our western countries). And they are still having hundreds of cases per day.

Which makes me a little sceptical of the numbers from China.

Which numbers are YOU sceptical of? And why?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: adamtherover on March 14, 2020, 08:32:52 PM
It's not that I'm sceptical of any numbers, it's more the fact that worse case scenarios are being quoted!!!  For example  50% of the worlds population will be infected!! And so many million will die!!  Complete doomsday scenario!!  When in most probable outcomes. The worlds governments will lock down countries long before that as we have seen in china and in italy, hence incredibly low figures, even in the hot spots!!!
Left unchecked, i have no doubt it would be massive, but we have to trust the governement arent idiots..   we shall see..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 14, 2020, 08:44:31 PM
Adam

Why do you think those are gross exaggerations?

In 1919, the world population was less than 1/4 of what it is now. No one knows how many people the Spanish Flu killed, but the lowest estimate is 17 million.

Why should that not happen again?

And since the infection and mortality rates I've been putting up here are broadly what the experts are predicting, why do you not accept them?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: tyke1962 on March 14, 2020, 08:44:53 PM
Tyke

I've had it up to my back teeth having the things I say twisted or ignored by you. There's no dialogue. Speak with you is like shovelling ideas into a black hole, and having your same argument come back every time. So I'm just going to step out now. Have fun.

Billy I've never twisted one thing in the exchange's we've had and tried to stick to the facts as far as I know them .

There's is no fun to be had on Labour people with the working class at the top of their debate and a million mile apart on how that's best achieved .

It's actually a tragedy .

There's very little lad points for me personally in our exchanges just a sincere sense of sadness .

You see the future of the working class one way and I see it another , that's all that separates us because the reality is we want the same result .

Let's not be divided and conquered because that's the one trick Tory narrative both you and I are fully aware of .

Let's debate but agree to disagree .

Sounds like a plan don't you agree ?

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 14, 2020, 08:55:02 PM
Adam

Your government are following a strategy of 'herd immunity'. In order for that strategy to be effective at least 60% of the population need to be infected. With a projected death rate of 1%. They have yet to provided the data that this is based on to show how effective it will be.

Every other country with the virus (and several without) are following a different strategy as recommended by the WHO. They are attempting to eradicate the virus completely.

Your government do not believe that strategy will work. They are planning on a 60% infection rate. Sorry but that is what they are planning/doing/not doing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: albie on March 14, 2020, 09:04:16 PM
Cummings is floating some ideas via pet poodle Peston on the next steps;
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-14/elderly-to-be-quarantined-for-four-months-in-wartime-style-mobilisation-to-combat-coronavirus/

If the pushback is too strong, then it is just journo speculation. Plausible deniability its called.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 14, 2020, 09:05:21 PM
A remarkable story , a million miles away from the selfish panic buyer's of today .
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-35064071

It's a remarkable story Tyke, we visited the graveyard the last time we were in the UK.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: tyke1962 on March 14, 2020, 09:14:57 PM
Billy

If you view my opinions as twisting the facts then fair enough , you are entitled to your opinion .

Possibly and I say this in a fashion that it's intended to be I'm no different from  highly educated court room lawyers who defend their clients and the jury decide on their tactics , many times a person's life depends on it .

I'm from a union background where members expected to be represented and sometimes it was indefensible but I represented them none the less and trust me they kept their jobs when sometimes they possibly shouldn't have done .

It's what I did and I won't apologise for it given a man's life is sometimes determined on such things elsewhere .

That said whilst we disagree on the EU I still fundamentally believe we are better out of it as working class people .

I ain't ever going to take one step towards you on that matter , not now and not ever .





Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 14, 2020, 09:18:13 PM
Wilks/Tyke in reply the Australian government has promised $750 to every person receiving welfare. I was hoping that they would give them more but it was a good move.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 14, 2020, 09:26:31 PM
Tyke.

Your final paragraph is precisely the reason it is utterly pointless discussing with you.

If you decide that no argument, no fact, no new development would ever change your mind, then discussing anything is pointless.

Good luck.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 14, 2020, 09:32:52 PM
Lol

https://mobile.twitter.com/DailyMail/status/1238542657825263616

Lol 2
Chinese government accuses UK of human rights abuse because of its response to covid-19

https://twitter.com/L__Macfarlane/status/1238867860145016834
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 14, 2020, 09:36:17 PM
Wilks/Tyke in reply the Australian government has promised $750 to every person receiving welfare. I was hoping that they would give them more but it was a good move.

Thanks Sydney, I was sure I had read that somewhere.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: tyke1962 on March 14, 2020, 09:39:03 PM
A remarkable story , a million miles away from the selfish panic buyer's of today .
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-35064071

It's a remarkable story Tyke, we visited the graveyard the last time we were in the UK.

Those people gave the ultimate sacrifice , you simply can't do anymore than sacrifice your own life to save others .

Times are different I accept that but there wasn't a so much as a single toilet roll available when I went in Tesco's yesterday evening , it's a superstore ffs  !!! .

Society today has me question in so many things , I put Thatcher at the top of it and her mandate and legacy .

You tell me this country as a whole is a  a better place because of her and I'll debate with anyone until I take my last breath that it isn't and never will be .

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nudga on March 14, 2020, 09:42:53 PM
Slightly off topic but related. It occurred to me seeing the news that Jet2 turned some of their flights to Spain around, very soon we are going to see an almost complete grounding of the airline industry.

That should give us some interesting data in relation to the concept of global dimming and perhaps reveal if the climate crisis is actually more advanced than we realise.

At least those pesky chem trails will lift the social fog 😉
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: albie on March 14, 2020, 09:45:00 PM
Still do not understand why the UK thinks we are up to 4 weeks behind Italy;
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1238822732302815232/photo/1

This graph shows around a 12 day lag.
This is not a small difference....it is massive when you factor in the expected rate of exponential growth.

Getting this wrong would mean too little, way too late.
It also risks compromising measures introduced in other places. Ireland has a different regime in place across the NI border.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: tyke1962 on March 14, 2020, 09:45:08 PM
Tyke.

Your final paragraph is precisely the reason it is utterly pointless discussing with you.

If you decide that no argument, no fact, no new development would ever change your mind, then discussing anything is pointless.

Good luck.

Billy its actually the other way around , your pro EU soundbites were rejected by the referendum and the last GE .

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: adamtherover on March 14, 2020, 09:46:01 PM
Adam

Your government are following a strategy of 'herd immunity'. In order for that strategy to be effective at least 60% of the population need to be infected. With a projected death rate of 1%. They have yet to provided the data that this is based on to show how effective it will be.

Every other country with the virus (and several without) are following a different strategy as recommended by the WHO. They are attempting to eradicate the virus completely.

Your government do not believe that strategy will work. They are planning on a 60% infection rate. Sorry but that is what they are planning/doing/not doing.

they are not MY government mate, I certainly didnt vote for the c*nts!!!!!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: adamtherover on March 14, 2020, 09:56:16 PM
And that was the point raised in my last post, are the governement idiots?, is Bojo listening to his health advisors?  Etc..  the individual can only do so much, we are the whim of the men at the top!!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: drfchound on March 14, 2020, 09:57:58 PM
Adam

Your government are following a strategy of 'herd immunity'. In order for that strategy to be effective at least 60% of the population need to be infected. With a projected death rate of 1%. They have yet to provided the data that this is based on to show how effective it will be.

Every other country with the virus (and several without) are following a different strategy as recommended by the WHO. They are attempting to eradicate the virus completely.

Your government do not believe that strategy will work. They are planning on a 60% infection rate. Sorry but that is what they are planning/doing/not doing.

they are not MY government mate, I certainly didnt vote for the c*nts!!!!!!







They are your government Adam.
The other lot didn’t get enough votes to change that.

I know how you feel though as I didn’t vote to leave the EU.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 14, 2020, 10:04:42 PM
Still do not understand why the UK thinks we are up to 4 weeks behind Italy;
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1238822732302815232/photo/1

This graph shows around a 12 day lag.
This is not a small difference....it is massive when you factor in the expected rate of exponential growth.

Getting this wrong would mean too little, way too late.
It also risks compromising measures introduced in other places. Ireland has a different regime in place across the NI border.

Albie.

It's not about the reported cases and the growth rates in those. Because that depends on how good your testing system is. Just because the trends in REPORTED cases have a twelve day lag doesn't mean the lag in ACTUAL cases is the same.

They are basing the 4 week lag on epidemiology modelling.

Put simply (and it is more complex) the fact that Italy has over 1000 deaths and we have about 20 allows them to get a more accurate handle on likely actual numbers of cases and growth rates.

The epidemiologidts are looking at hard, accurate data (like deaths) and comparing the trend to those predicted by well validated epidemic models. From that, they are estimating that it will take 4 weeks for us to get from our actual current number of cases (about 10,000) to the number of real cases that Italy currently has (probably about 150,000)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: scawsby steve on March 14, 2020, 10:12:59 PM
Adam

Why do you think those are gross exaggerations?

In 1919, the world population was less than 1/4 of what it is now. No one knows how many people the Spanish Flu killed, but the lowest estimate is 17 million.

Why should that not happen again?

And since the infection and mortality rates I've been putting up here are broadly what the experts are predicting, why do you not accept them?

Why don't you accept the latest figures from China?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 14, 2020, 10:15:03 PM
Tyke.

I don't change my views because of election results.

If I did that, I'd have wanted the Govt to smash the trade unions in the 1980s.

So that's a daft thing to say.

What I DO do is change my mind when facts change, or I come across a compelling analysis. I've heard neither from the Leave side.

And the fact that you once again entirely miss the point of my last post and go off on yet another non-sequitur is just another reason why discussing stuff with you is tiresome and pointless. This will be my last response to you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 14, 2020, 10:18:25 PM
SS.

I explained why I'm sceptical (not, not believing) earlier. I'm not writing it again. And I'm increasingly fed up with folk reading what I write and accusing me of saying things I've not said. It's a common courtesy to read what people say and stop and think about it before diving in to hold them to task.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: DonnyOsmond on March 14, 2020, 10:23:47 PM
China have been praised by WHO.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 14, 2020, 10:28:02 PM
DO.
In which case I'll be happy to withdraw my scepticism.

I remain sceptical that they will be able to keep the virus out of the country for the 12-18 months it will take to develop a virus, without huge economic costs to them and the world.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: tyke1962 on March 14, 2020, 10:38:23 PM
Tyke.

I don't change my views because of election results.

If I did that, I'd have wanted the Govt to smash the trade unions in the 1980s.

So that's a daft thing to say.

What I DO do is change my mind when facts change, or I come across a compelling analysis. I've heard neither from the Leave side.

And the fact that you once again entirely miss the point of my last post and go off on yet another non-sequitur is just another reason why discussing stuff with you is tiresome and pointless. This will be my last response to you.

Billy the Thatcher government never said they were going to smash the trade unions they just did .

The Labour Party , tell me if im wrong that they would respect the result of the referendum result in their manifesto , they didn't .

If you want to hide from debate and not respond to my opinions then that just endorses my own feelings about the Labour Party of today .

The truth of elections has you in denial .

Very sad state of affairs .






Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: DonnyOsmond on March 14, 2020, 10:40:42 PM
Tyke.

I don't change my views because of election results.

If I did that, I'd have wanted the Govt to smash the trade unions in the 1980s.

So that's a daft thing to say.

What I DO do is change my mind when facts change, or I come across a compelling analysis. I've heard neither from the Leave side.

And the fact that you once again entirely miss the point of my last post and go off on yet another non-sequitur is just another reason why discussing stuff with you is tiresome and pointless. This will be my last response to you.

Billy the Thatcher government never said they were going to smash the trade unions they just did .

The Labour Party , tell me if im wrong that they would respect the result of the referendum result in their manifesto , they didn't .

If you want to hide from debate and not respond to my opinions then that just endorses my own feelings about the Labour Party of today .

The truth of elections has you in denial .

Very sad state of affairs .








This isn't about the coronavirus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bristol Red Rover on March 14, 2020, 10:42:33 PM
DO.
In which case I'll be happy to withdraw my scepticism.

I remain sceptical that they will be able to keep the virus out of the country for the 12-18 months it will take to develop a virus, without huge economic costs to them and the world.

I think impossible rather than sceptical doubt. I'm aghast at what they are thinking unless it's simply a huge brake being applied to a runaway train which still has to get to the bottom of the mountain. It could be they're still all so focused on brake mode they forgot to look out and see how high up the track they still are and realise they have to ease off on that braking a bit to allow the train to gently roll down, or else spend the rest of their lives up there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: tyke1962 on March 14, 2020, 10:53:37 PM
Billy

Hiding from debate isn't going to unite us and topple  tory government anytime soon .

We have to settle this at some stage , it clearly isn't going away .

On this board the problems of the current Labour Party are all clear to see even at the level we as contributors are .

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: drfcdrfc on March 14, 2020, 11:32:05 PM
Tyke.

Your final paragraph is precisely the reason it is utterly pointless discussing with you.

If you decide that no argument, no fact, no new development would ever change your mind, then discussing anything is pointless.

Good luck.

Billy its actually the other way around , your pro EU soundbites were rejected by the referendum and the last GE .



Why are you so insistent on making this a political thing when it has been made very very clear that it's not?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 14, 2020, 11:41:26 PM
I don't mind admitting, I'm getting a bad feeling about all this. It's not just the virus and the possible death toll. It's the financial implications.

Look where we are. We've had an insipid global recovery for the last decade, there is so much debt floating around. The central banks now have only limited room for manoeuvre. Then look at what this virus is imposing on us. how long has China been in lockdown now 3 months or more?

And now other nations are being forced to follow suit France and Spain look to be heading into lockdown this week. The prospect of a sixteen week closure of UK schools. Minimum.

Tourism is already on its knees, it's going to be closely followed by the restaurants and retail (bar food shopping). It's enormous. I will be surprised if the markets don't go into free fall again next week. Then the defaults will start and once again the banks will begin to freeze.

And for the average family who have mortgages and loans and the prospect of redundancy looming? And this isn't just a financial muddle, it's a real world physical dilemma the banks can't just begin to to deal with.

I honestly don't think we have ever faced a crisis on the scale of this before.

Is anyone still saying its just the flu?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 15, 2020, 12:00:24 AM
President Trump has just tested negative for the virus.

We just can't seem to get any kind of a lucky break.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 15, 2020, 12:05:03 AM
Billy

Hiding from debate isn't going to unite us and topple  tory government anytime soon .

We have to settle this at some stage , it clearly isn't going away .

On this board the problems of the current Labour Party are all clear to see even at the level we as contributors are .



For f**ks same stop making this political.!!

It matters not which party is in government..  I find their approach alarming.

I find it very alarming to read the views of the medical advisor that outdoor social gatherings pose no extra risk, whilst ignoring the fact that people will be in very close proximity on public transport getting there and in the concourses.

Also that the uk authorities seem to think they can deal with this virus a whole lot differently than the rest of the world, with no obvious reason to do so..

Go figure..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: albie on March 15, 2020, 12:11:20 AM
BST,

Yes, it is reported cases not ACTUAL.
The point being that you will never know the actual figure, only an estimate based on deaths and assumptions about non-declared recoveries.

You say the modelling is based upon "well validated epidemic models".

Any models can only be referenced to data from other flu-like contagion, I am unaware of any modelled specifically to Covid 19. Do you know of any such?

It is perfectly possible that Covid-19 will follow a different path.

Your last paragraph says "it will take 4 weeks for us to get from our actual current number of cases (about 10,000) to the number of real cases that Italy currently has (probably about 150,000)".
Both of those figures are estimates, and there is no indication in the confidence of the forecasts.
 
The issue is that there are wide error bars on the calculation, such that it is very difficult to target a specific point of intervention.

Yet the UK strategy hinges upon being able to do just that.......unless you think that the UK is holding back precisely to allow infection to spread in pursuit of early "herd immunity".

All of which is why some in the scientific community are asking for the modelling and its data inputs to be open, not inside a "black box".
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 15, 2020, 12:23:30 AM
Also disturbing is that the uk is not testing people who self isolate with mild  symptoms.

So does it matter what model is used to estimate spread etc, and when and how to intervene, if there is no realistic metric for testing sufficient people.?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 15, 2020, 12:25:48 AM
Albie.

I accept all that. For clarification, I meant models of growth which had been validated against retrospectively known trends from previous epidemics. The epidemiologists will be testing those models against the incoming deaths data from C-19 and tweaking the models, to give updates in a dynamic scenario. At least I assume they would be. That's certainly what people in my field would be doing in a similar scenario.

If you are not prepared to trust that modelling, then what? Alternative?

That's not a flippant comment. It is a hard question. Do we lock down now and isolate outselves from the rest of the world for 18 months? Take an economic hit of north of 20% of GDP (with all the consequences for our future ability to protect people)?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 15, 2020, 12:41:16 AM
India now has more than 80 known cases... Just imagine how that is going to pan out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 15, 2020, 02:50:38 AM
Billy

Hiding from debate isn't going to unite us and topple  tory government anytime soon .

We have to settle this at some stage , it clearly isn't going away .

On this board the problems of the current Labour Party are all clear to see even at the level we as contributors are .



For f**ks same stop making this political.!!

It matters not which party is in government..  I find their approach alarming.

I find it very alarming to read the views of the medical advisor that outdoor social gatherings pose no extra risk, whilst ignoring the fact that people will be in very close proximity on public transport getting there and in the concourses.

Also that the uk authorities seem to think they can deal with this virus a whole lot differently than the rest of the world, with no obvious reason to do so..

Go figure..

Unfortunately brexit is all consuming:

Brexit means coronavirus vaccine will be slower to reach the UK

The UK will leave the European Medicines Agency (EMA), the body responsible for the scientific evaluation, supervision and safety monitoring of medicines, at the end of the transition period on 30 December. This means it will no longer be part of the EU’s regulatory regime, which allows for “accelerated assessment” of products developed by drugs companies during a pandemic.

The UK has already withdrawn from the EU’s emergency bulk-buying mechanism for vaccines and medicines, under which member states strike collective agreements with pharmaceutical companies, which speeds up their access to the latest products during a crisis.

The academics write: “For all these reasons ... the UK is likely to have to join the queue for access with other countries outside the EU, and to pay more than it would otherwise as an EU member state.

“Looking further ahead, this problem will not be limited to emergencies and the UK can expect slower and more limited access to medicines, especially those for rare conditions or those used to treat children, where the market is small.”

They argue that the UK could still avoid the worst by agreeing to align fully with the EMA’s regulations from outside the EU. But they say Johnson has so far indicated that his team have no intention of doing so and do not want to operate as “rule takers”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-vaccine-delays-brexit-ema-expensive
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: big fat yorkshire pudding on March 15, 2020, 08:37:01 AM
I find it a little sad that we are being so divisive again on this, did we not learn anything from 2019.  Twitter has #boristhebutcher and #torygenocide trending. At this time we should rightly question the government policy given it is different to others, but I think we should tread carefully or theres more risk from the potential social unrest (a bit like in the drama cobra recently on sky).

I do think the government has to be transparent and provide daily updates with reasoning behind their approach. 

I actually fear a potential quarantine, the effects on my mental health on that do worry me probably more than the virus (and I have underlying issues too).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 15, 2020, 09:21:27 AM
Hancock is asking manufacturers to switch to ventilators if they possibly can this morning...

That's for the desperately needed new ICU departments in hospitals.

After three months notice, he's making a desperate plea on the eve of calamity. That is pretty f**king desperate. Appalling.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 15, 2020, 09:24:01 AM
BFYP.

Yes. And it also has this little Kitson doing his bit to heal the wounds. The little scrote who ran the youth wing of Vote Leave.

https://mobile.twitter.com/darrengrimes_/status/1238853683955347456
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Donnywolf on March 15, 2020, 09:41:12 AM
Hancock is asking manufacturers to switch to ventilators if they possibly can this morning...

That's for the desperately needed new ICU departments in hospitals.

After three months notice, he's making a desperate plea on the eve of calamity. That is pretty f**king desperate. Appalling.

They should have got Grayling on the case. He could have bought 38 Million quids worth from a Supplier who dont have any and dont make any PRAT (him not me  ;) )
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: big fat yorkshire pudding on March 15, 2020, 11:07:49 AM
BFYP.

Yes. And it also has this little Kitson doing his bit to heal the wounds. The little scrote who ran the youth wing of Vote Leave.

https://mobile.twitter.com/darrengrimes_/status/1238853683955347456

Yes absolutely ridiculous. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 15, 2020, 11:37:41 AM
I am determined not to get into party politics during this crisis.

But that doesn't mean the Govt shouldn't be criticised.

They have just "announced" the single most revolutionary social policy since WWII.

They've announced that Govt policy is going to be for 70 years olds to stay in their houses and not go out AT ALL for 4 months.

You'd think that would be worthy of the PM speaking directly to the nation to explain the reasons behind this, the importance that people do it, and the steps that will be taken to protect the elderly.

Nope. They leaked it to Robert Peston late on a Saturday night to Tweet to the nation.

THIS is what I mean about us needing a coalition. This is not about politics as usual,where all that matters is controlling the news agenda. If there are Cabinet ministers who can't contribute anything more than an ability to control a herd of tame journalists, they need to be out NOW, and more able people from anywhere on the political spectrum brought in.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 15, 2020, 12:20:39 PM
Good news and bad news

Good news when I looked a couple of hours ago there wee no cases in Doncaster but now there are 2.

How many confirmed cases are in your area?
Enter a postcode, English council or Scottish NHS area to find out. Wales and Northern Ireland are not currently providing localised figures

There are 2 cases in Doncaster, out of a local population of 310,542
Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 15 March

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51768274

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 15, 2020, 12:45:44 PM
Hancock is asking manufacturers to switch to ventilators if they possibly can this morning...

That's for the desperately needed new ICU departments in hospitals.

After three months notice, he's making a desperate plea on the eve of calamity. That is pretty f**king desperate. Appalling.

They should have got Grayling on the case. He could have bought 38 Million quids worth from a Supplier who dont have any and dont make any PRAT (him not me  ;) )

Only those manufacturers that have ''clean room'' facilities and all the necessary assembly expertise would be able to do this. And then only if you can buy the parts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 15, 2020, 12:46:23 PM
Good news and bad news

Good news when I looked a couple of hours ago there wee no cases in Doncaster but now there are 2.

How many confirmed cases are in your area?
Enter a postcode, English council or Scottish NHS area to find out. Wales and Northern Ireland are not currently providing localised figures

There are 2 cases in Doncaster, out of a local population of 310,542
Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 15 March

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51768274



The published figures cannot show the true extent of the virus as only hospitalised cases are getting tested.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 15, 2020, 12:57:07 PM
The Australian gov't is changing tack daily and has now written to GPs to tell them to only test certain patients as we are running low on test kits

''Australian stocks of coronavirus testing kits 'rapidly deteriorating', says chief medical officer
Exclusive: In letter to GPs Brendan Murphy says Covid-19 kits no longer available in some regions and there is ‘extreme pressure’ on protective equipment''
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 15, 2020, 12:59:39 PM
This doesn't look good.

Reports coming from France and the Netherlands, that half of those in critical care are under 60 years old.

I wonder if that might point to a mutation? Or whether it has just been unreported or what.

I picked this up from Zerohedge, so you know, treat it with some scepticism anyway but quite often they are first with news.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: DonnyOsmond on March 15, 2020, 01:15:53 PM
This doesn't look good.

Reports coming from France and the Netherlands, that half of those in critical care are under 60 years old.

I wonder if that might point to a mutation? Or whether it has just been unreported or what.

I picked this up from Zerohedge, so you know, treat it with some scepticism anyway but quite often they are first with news.

If your body reacts to the disease then you could end up in critical care whatever your age. It's just then you're more likely to recover the younger you are and also and unfortunately if it's a choice of doctors putting in time to a 33 year old or an 88 year old they'll choose the 33 year old.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 15, 2020, 01:37:37 PM
It's also on The Independent's website as a story from a doctor in Italy RD.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-update-young-people-hospital-luca-lorini-bergamo-a9402531.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 15, 2020, 02:54:32 PM
As you know RD, I wouldn't wipe my arse on ZH, even if I was out of bog roll. I've been convinced for years that it's a Kremlin psy-op machine operating in full view.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 15, 2020, 03:09:47 PM
This doesn't look good.

Reports coming from France and the Netherlands, that half of those in critical care are under 60 years old.

I have not seen that in the Netherlands. Do you have a source/link? The information from the RIVM has been that all the fatalities have been over 70 with underlying health issues.

I have obviously been following the progression here in the Netherlands, and over the last few days (in fact, over 10 days now) the increase in infections rate has progressively gone down. The last increase was 18% form yesterday to today. It is, infact, the lowest daily increase so far.

That's interesting to me because there was (until the last couple of days) basically very little response from anyone here. The gov have been very slow/relaxed about it. But the cases are not going up as dramatically as might be expected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: drfcdrfc on March 15, 2020, 03:19:26 PM
Germanys borders closing. In our supply chain, 70% of parts come from Germany. So this should be interesting, I would imagine working from home isn't even going to be possible
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: big fat yorkshire pudding on March 15, 2020, 03:39:37 PM
Goods are still flowing, its mainly people they are trying to stop.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 15, 2020, 03:56:20 PM
Good news and bad news

Good news when I looked a couple of hours ago there wee no cases in Doncaster but now there are 2.

How many confirmed cases are in your area?
Enter a postcode, English council or Scottish NHS area to find out. Wales and Northern Ireland are not currently providing localised figures

There are 2 cases in Doncaster, out of a local population of 310,542
Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 15 March

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51768274



The published figures cannot show the true extent of the virus as only hospitalised cases are getting tested.

I know of one case self isolating at home
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: drfchound on March 15, 2020, 04:09:14 PM
Good news and bad news

Good news when I looked a couple of hours ago there wee no cases in Doncaster but now there are 2.

How many confirmed cases are in your area?
Enter a postcode, English council or Scottish NHS area to find out. Wales and Northern Ireland are not currently providing localised figures

There are 2 cases in Doncaster, out of a local population of 310,542
Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 15 March

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51768274



The published figures cannot show the true extent of the virus as only hospitalised cases are getting tested.

I know of one case self isolating at home







Is that the one that you mentioned the other day, in Dunscroft.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 15, 2020, 04:19:42 PM
If there is anyone left out there not taking this seriously, knock this into their heads.

https://mobile.twitter.com/JasonYanowitz/status/1238977743653687296
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: selby on March 15, 2020, 04:30:19 PM
  Copps, a lot more younger people smoke in the Netherlands and France than here, in the Netherlands not always tobacco.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: bpoolrover on March 15, 2020, 05:26:38 PM
This doesn't look good.

Reports coming from France and the Netherlands, that half of those in critical care are under 60 years old.

I have not seen that in the Netherlands. Do you have a source/link? The information from the RIVM has been that all the fatalities have been over 70 with underlying health issues.

I have obviously been following the progression here in the Netherlands, and over the last few days (in fact, over 10 days now) the increase in infections rate has progressively gone down. The last increase was 18% form yesterday to today. It is, infact, the lowest daily increase so far.

That's interesting to me because there was (until the last couple of days) basically very little response from anyone here. The gov have been very slow/relaxed about it. But the cases are not going up as dramatically as might be expected.
[/https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/03/dutch-coronavirus-death-toll-reaches-20-new-measures-due-in-brabant/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 15, 2020, 05:33:35 PM
Thats doesn't saything about under 60s being in critical cair. It reinforces what we aleady know.

Quote
The eight overnight deaths involved people aged 59 to 94 and most had underlying health problems, the RIVM said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: bpoolrover on March 15, 2020, 05:38:50 PM
Sorry I posted it to confirm why you said
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 15, 2020, 05:39:37 PM
This doesn't look good.

Reports coming from France and the Netherlands, that half of those in critical care are under 60 years old.

I have not seen that in the Netherlands. Do you have a source/link? The information from the RIVM has been that all the fatalities have been over 70 with underlying health issues.

I have obviously been following the progression here in the Netherlands, and over the last few days (in fact, over 10 days now) the increase in infections rate has progressively gone down. The last increase was 18% form yesterday to today. It is, infact, the lowest daily increase so far.

That's interesting to me because there was (until the last couple of days) basically very little response from anyone here. The gov have been very slow/relaxed about it. But the cases are not going up as dramatically as might be expected.

It was a headline on Zerohedge. So as BST would tell you, it's not the most reliable source. However The Independant has run a similar story based on the observations of an Italian doctor. Make of it what you will.

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/not-just-seniors-french-doctors-report-50-icu-patients-under-60-years-old-netherlands-under
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 15, 2020, 05:45:36 PM
I hadn't seen it before but the clip with testimony from Italian health workers on that Zerohedge page is an eye opener too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 15, 2020, 05:54:12 PM
If that Milanese doctor is to be believed, it seems they don't have enough rescources to treat anyone in critical care above the age of 60. They are just left to peg it.

This will be one reason why the figures are so disproportionately weighted towards the older generation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 15, 2020, 06:04:57 PM
I think it would be negligent to say the least if the UK and other governments weren't doing their absolute upmost right now to increase ICU, ventilator, oxygen therapy capacity etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: i_ateallthepies on March 15, 2020, 06:33:43 PM
BST,

Yes, it is reported cases not ACTUAL.
The point being that you will never know the actual figure, only an estimate based on deaths and assumptions about non-declared recoveries.

You say the modelling is based upon "well validated epidemic models".

Any models can only be referenced to data from other flu-like contagion, I am unaware of any modelled specifically to Covid 19. Do you know of any such?

It is perfectly possible that Covid-19 will follow a different path.

Your last paragraph says "it will take 4 weeks for us to get from our actual current number of cases (about 10,000) to the number of real cases that Italy currently has (probably about 150,000)".
Both of those figures are estimates, and there is no indication in the confidence of the forecasts.
 
The issue is that there are wide error bars on the calculation, such that it is very difficult to target a specific point of intervention.

Yet the UK strategy hinges upon being able to do just that.......unless you think that the UK is holding back precisely to allow infection to spread in pursuit of early "herd immunity".

All of which is why some in the scientific community are asking for the modelling and its data inputs to be open, not inside a "black box".


I posted about this of Friday after listening to an expert on the subject being interviewed on Five Live.  She spoke of herd immunity and explained why it will offer no protection for anyone with this virus this time around.  If herd immunity has been proffered as part of the reasoning for UK government strategy then I'm afraid it fills the room with a strong stench of bullshit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: i_ateallthepies on March 15, 2020, 06:40:01 PM
Hancock is asking manufacturers to switch to ventilators if they possibly can this morning...

That's for the desperately needed new ICU departments in hospitals.

After three months notice, he's making a desperate plea on the eve of calamity. That is pretty f**king desperate. Appalling.

I would have thought that the design and manufacture of such equipment is a pretty specialist field and if the government are meaning they're exploring the possibility of companies switching their operation to start at the drawing board then it clearly will offer nothing in the way of results.  You then have to wonder why they would say it at all.  Even if they simply said they're going to ask existing manufacturers to explore all options to expand manufacturing capacity, they should have been doing that two months ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 15, 2020, 06:42:17 PM
If that Milanese doctor is to be believed, it seems they don't have enough rescources to treat anyone in critical care above the age of 60. They are just left to peg it.

This will be one reason why the figures are so disproportionately weighted towards the older generation.

It's inevitable.

Do the numbers. Look at the number of cases and look at the capacities of health services.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 15, 2020, 06:46:15 PM
I hate to say this but it's almost a couple of years since I watched my Dad be taken by pneumonia whilst on and off a ventilator for a few days. It's  a grim business.

I'm not that old yet but who knows what will happen with the NHS. I think if I find myself gasping for breath in a hospital corridor and they can't treat me, I'd be asking for a big injection of jollop to see me off quickly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 15, 2020, 07:02:09 PM
It seems some western countries are shutting down testing for all but those with severe symtoms in hospital.

Flying in the face of evidence from South Korea which shows that mass testing can help to halt the spread of the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 15, 2020, 07:02:43 PM
I saw somewhere that there are some 350 critical care care beds in the private sector in London alone.. I suspect that these will be called upon - along with the use of other private clinics countrywide and military wards if needed.  We'll soon see if we, as Brits, still have the ability to rise to the occasion...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nudga on March 15, 2020, 07:27:04 PM
For me, the biggest danger is the Kitsons who are stockpiling bog roll and pasta will be the ones running off to A&E because they've sneezed.
It'll be these types of Kitson putting a massive strain on the health service.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 15, 2020, 07:30:42 PM
I personally think that the press publicising of the bog roll/pasta stampede has been half the problem... If it wasn't plastered over the press the stampede wouldn't be there....
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: albie on March 15, 2020, 07:33:37 PM
Letter from members of the science community which calls out the UK approach;
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-scientists-share-fears-uk-21695523

Meanwhile, Hancock reckons "herd immunity" is NOT part of the strategy, directly contradicting Vallance who yesterday said it was?
https://www.thecanary.co/trending/2020/03/15/health-secretary-matt-hancocks-response-to-covid-19-isnt-fooling-anyone/

Guided by the science we will be....taxi for Mr Hancock!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 15, 2020, 07:39:50 PM
Very, very bad news for the proponents of 'herd immunity'

https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/1239071257510854657
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: tyke1962 on March 15, 2020, 07:43:39 PM
Worrying ........


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidemiologist-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 15, 2020, 08:11:02 PM
It seems some western countries are shutting down testing for all but those with severe symtoms in hospital.

Flying in the face of evidence from South Korea which shows that mass testing can help to halt the spread of the virus.

I find the logic of only testing hospital cases totally illogical - any other knowledge of the spread beyond this can only be guesswork and conjecture based upon computer models of how viruses should work, but what’s to say this one is different.?

Also, by not testing, we don’t know as individuals where the cases are.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 15, 2020, 08:56:13 PM
Good news and bad news

Good news when I looked a couple of hours ago there wee no cases in Doncaster but now there are 2.

How many confirmed cases are in your area?
Enter a postcode, English council or Scottish NHS area to find out. Wales and Northern Ireland are not currently providing localised figures

There are 2 cases in Doncaster, out of a local population of 310,542
Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 15 March

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51768274



The published figures cannot show the true extent of the virus as only hospitalised cases are getting tested.

I know of one case self isolating at home







Is that the one that you mentioned the other day, in Dunscroft.

Yes
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: tyke1962 on March 15, 2020, 09:22:15 PM
If the governments strategy causes a larger loss of life unnecessarily because they failed to protect the public and went their own way will have serious consequences attached to it .

I sincerely hope they've called this right and it isn't a strategy so their policies of the last 10 years aren't exposed for what many of us suspect they are .

At the press conference the other night Johnson flanked by medical experts looked a very worried man , I suspect for reasons his party have massively contributed to .

I'm not for making political gain from this , far from it because I sincerely hope they've called this right ..... However .


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/uk-covid-19-strategy-questions-unanswered-coronavirus-outbreak
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: drfchound on March 15, 2020, 09:32:25 PM
Good news and bad news

Good news when I looked a couple of hours ago there wee no cases in Doncaster but now there are 2.

How many confirmed cases are in your area?
Enter a postcode, English council or Scottish NHS area to find out. Wales and Northern Ireland are not currently providing localised figures

There are 2 cases in Doncaster, out of a local population of 310,542
Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 15 March

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51768274



The published figures cannot show the true extent of the virus as only hospitalised cases are getting tested.

I know of one case self isolating at home







Is that the one that you mentioned the other day, in Dunscroft.

Yes








Has he/she actually contracted the disease or is it precautionary?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: DonnyOsmond on March 15, 2020, 09:44:07 PM
There's one kid at a school in Moorends.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: drfchound on March 15, 2020, 10:02:47 PM
He must be lonely.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 15, 2020, 10:04:15 PM
Good news and bad news

Good news when I looked a couple of hours ago there wee no cases in Doncaster but now there are 2.

How many confirmed cases are in your area?
Enter a postcode, English council or Scottish NHS area to find out. Wales and Northern Ireland are not currently providing localised figures

There are 2 cases in Doncaster, out of a local population of 310,542
Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 15 March

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51768274



The published figures cannot show the true extent of the virus as only hospitalised cases are getting tested.

I know of one case self isolating at home







Is that the one that you mentioned the other day, in Dunscroft.

Yes








Has he/she actually contracted the disease or is it precautionary?

I’m led to believe the person has tested positive for it
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: tyke1962 on March 15, 2020, 10:05:30 PM
There's one kid at a school in Moorends.

Three school children from Kendray Academy less than a mile from where I live in Barnsley have tested positive for the virus .

My thoughts are that they make a speedy recovery .

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: 5minstogo on March 15, 2020, 10:09:52 PM
I know of several children from the local school isolating for 7 days due to a cough and high temperature.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: tyke1962 on March 15, 2020, 10:30:07 PM
I'm looking for some leadership from the government right now .

Political allegiances are irrelevant .

368 people have died from this virus in the last 24 hours in Italy which is a wake up call and a reality check if ever I saw one .

We are all going to lose someone to this virus who we love or who we know .

That seems to me to be a solid fact .

There's more to this thing than what we are getting told in my opinion .

I don't expect the government to get everything totally right because this is an unprecedented situation and it's impossible .

The death toll in Italy over the last 24 hours have me looking at this in a different light .

People are far more vulnerable than what we are getting told in my opinion .

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Ldr on March 15, 2020, 10:33:18 PM
For those who like numbers, the (pre coronavirus) average number of people who die daily in the UK is around 1,400
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 15, 2020, 10:51:22 PM
Spread this story as far as you can. It's highly simplistic, but it really gets the message home on self-isolation and social distancing.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

If you don't cut down pointless trips. If you don't self isolate when you come down with C-19, YOU, you personally, will be responsible for more people getting I'll and more people dying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: tyke1962 on March 15, 2020, 10:52:57 PM
For those who like numbers, the (pre coronavirus) average number of people who die daily in the UK is around 1,400

That's probably a solid fact but the problem with looking at it that way is that possibly very little of those deaths led to someone else dying with a highly contagious virus .

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 15, 2020, 10:57:25 PM
Our local news tonight had a medical expert explain why they are not testing widely.

He said that all people who had returned from affected areas have been tested so that for the remainder of us they can use modelling.

I can see how using statistics and modelling may give a reasonable assessment of quantifying the outbreak, but it is bugger all use to individuals knowing whether they have the virus or have been exposed to it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 15, 2020, 10:58:31 PM
For those who like numbers, the (pre coronavirus) average number of people who die daily in the UK is around 1,400

Your point being?

When this thing peaks, we won't be seeing 10 people die per day.

We won't be seeing 1400.

We will be seeing something in the 10s of thousands.

What you are doing is looking at the lightest drizzle on the leading edge of a hurricane and hinting that it's not all that bad.

That attitude, if it persuaded people that they do not need to change their behaviour, will lead to people dying who shouldn't do.

It's time you stopped and asked yourself why you are doing this. You've downplayed the threat at every step. Belittled people who were warning if what is coming.

If you can't take this seriously, you should at least have the good grace to keep quiet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 15, 2020, 11:00:27 PM
Our local news tonight had a medical expert explain why they are not testing widely.

He said that all people who had returned from affected areas have been tested so that for the remainder of us they can use modelling.

I can see how using statistics and modelling may give a reasonable assessment of quantifying the outbreak, but it is bugger all use to individuals knowing whether they have the virus or have been exposed to it.

IDM.

I take your point, but we are in a situation were improving our understanding now might allow us to make decisions in a few weeks that could save 100,000 lives.

In that context, using limited resources in a way that aids that decision, even at the cost of hurting a few individuals now, is entirely the right thing to do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Ldr on March 15, 2020, 11:00:54 PM
BST It was a fact presented without comment. Stop putting words in peoples mouths. You are not the authority on everything, you're nothing more than a condescending t**t at the moment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: tyke1962 on March 15, 2020, 11:12:28 PM
BST It was a fact presented without comment. Stop putting words in peoples mouths. You are not the authority on everything, you're nothing more than a condescending t**t at the moment.

Time for all of us to pull together irrespective of our differences don't you think Ldr ? .

The cards that we have right now are the only cards we have , the dealer won't be giving you anymore .

If ever there was a time to put our differences to one side then it's now .

It's all we have , mother nature will decide the rest .
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Ldr on March 15, 2020, 11:14:39 PM
Agreed Tyke, although im not been called out on words put in my mouth, nor would you
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 15, 2020, 11:16:21 PM
Am I right in saying that you have downplayed this at every step of the way?

Last week you we amusing yourself asking questions about my mental state and need for this to be really bad. When what I have been doing from the start is putting out the message of how bad this is going to be, and how vital it is that we ALL take it seriously.

Putting out "a fact presented without comment", which is entirely irrelevant to what is coming, and which may mislead people into not taking this seriously, is as bad as deliberately trying to deceive someone.

Like I say, if you don't care about this, which is what you suggested a few weeks ago, then fine. Just keep that to yourself and let the rest of us get on with taking the steps we need to minimise the effect of what is coming.

If you consider that to make me a "condescending t**t", frankly, I couldn't care less. Id rather hurt a few feelings and be part of saving a lot of lives than grease people's arseholes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 15, 2020, 11:19:42 PM
Our local news tonight had a medical expert explain why they are not testing widely.

He said that all people who had returned from affected areas have been tested so that for the remainder of us they can use modelling.

I can see how using statistics and modelling may give a reasonable assessment of quantifying the outbreak, but it is bugger all use to individuals knowing whether they have the virus or have been exposed to it.

IDM.

I take your point, but we are in a situation were improving our understanding now might allow us to make decisions in a few weeks that could save 100,000 lives.

In that context, using limited resources in a way that aids that decision, even at the cost of hurting a few individuals now, is entirely the right thing to do.

I get that, but I would reckon huge swathes of the population don’t.  The same principle which causes people to go and panic buy items which aren’t in short supply.

I’m not blaming individuals for that, it just happens.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 15, 2020, 11:22:24 PM
Come back and look at this post again at the end of June. You'll see then why I have been on such a short fuse with your attitude to this issue over the past few weeks. I've tried to discuss this sensibly with you and got responses like this.

https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=276411.msg953610#msg953610

At the moment, I couldn't care less what your opinion of me is. Just so long as people don't take the "meh" attitude you have shown through this whole thing. Because that attitude WILL kill people who shouldn't die over the next few months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 16, 2020, 12:19:32 AM
Someone was commenting on here about that vastly different mortality rates between Italy and Germany.

This is interesting reading.
https://mobile.twitter.com/kuhnmo/status/1238421146837684224


Especially the reference to this data.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AndreasShrugged/status/1237774602056732674

That graph goes a long way to explaining the difference in death rates. The earlier link then investigates why Italy has so many over 60s infected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Ldr on March 16, 2020, 08:10:30 AM
BST if you dont think I am concerned you are wrong. What I dont subscribe to is the level you are at. Whether that is right or wrong time will tell, as we both know ppl react differently to things. Apologies for what I said to you last night btw.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 16, 2020, 08:22:47 AM
The bookies announcing they are in trouble this morning.

Cancel all the sport and there's nothing to bet on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 16, 2020, 08:28:53 AM
Ldr.

No problem. I deserved it. Emotions are running high. Apologies for acting like a t**t.

I'm genuinely scared about this, in a way I've never been about anything in my life. I just don't see any outcome that isn't simply awful.

China may have controlled C-19, but the cost of that is just starting to come out. These numbers a jaw-droppingly frightening.

https://mobile.twitter.com/S_Rabinovitch/status/1239382457226416135
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 16, 2020, 08:32:33 AM
Bad times need drastic measures, in my opinion we should close all our borders, and anyone infected or showing signs of infection should be forced to isolate by law, it’s the only way to get this under control, I said earlier this month that there must be thousands of empty buildings in the country that could be requisitioned and quickly turned into isolation centres, b*llocks to peoples freedoms, something drastic has to happen
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 16, 2020, 08:38:42 AM
This is the big problem BST.

Plenty of doctors are lining up to say the UK must follow suit and lockdown early to save lives.

They are right, in the short term but what then? The plan seems to be put everything on hold until vaccines and treatments are available. That could be twelve months away, eightteen months away. The vaccine when it comes might not be so effective.

I can tell you now, trying to shut the global economy down for any length of time is folly. It doesn't slow down, it collapses. That will do far greater damage to public health than the virus.

A very difficult choice must be made here, and I actually think Whitty and Vallance are trying to make it.

One thing I think they are getting wrong though is dropping testing and tracing. South Korea and Singapore have had a lot of success slowing the thing down through thorough testing and meticulous tracing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: knockers on March 16, 2020, 08:42:08 AM
It really hit home on last nights news seeing several major cities in Europe totally void of people.
Europe is taking it seriously and it’s about time we stopped thinking that we’re better than the rest.
My main concern is the elderly parents and just how they are going to cope.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 16, 2020, 08:50:04 AM
Knockers

It's not a case of thinking we are better than the rest.

It is a case of trying not to panic and making the best choice. Just doing something, anything because it is what everyone else is doing, isn't necessarily the best choice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 16, 2020, 09:07:28 AM
This is the big problem BST.

Plenty of doctors are lining up to say the UK must follow suit and lockdown early to save lives.

They are right, in the short term but what then? The plan seems to be put everything on hold until vaccines and treatments are available. That could be twelve months away, eightteen months away. The vaccine when it comes might not be so effective.

I can tell you now, trying to shut the global economy down for any length of time is folly. It doesn't slow down, it collapses. That will do far greater damage to public health than the virus.

A very difficult choice must be made here, and I actually think Whitty and Vallance are trying to make it.

One thing I think they are getting wrong though is dropping testing and tracing. South Korea and Singapore have had a lot of success slowing the thing down through thorough testing and meticulous tracing.

I agree about the testing bit, they are relying on modelling based upon testing done to date..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 16, 2020, 09:16:53 AM
RD.

I couldn't agree more in the economics.

I'm sick of hearing "People's lives are more important than economics". Like you say, if we allow our response to be guided like that, we will cause far more deaths in the long run by the consequences of economic damage. We've seen figures saying Austerity has cost 120,000 lives. The potential economic effects of this, if we get the response wrong, will make Austerity costs look like a bit of change dropped down the back of the settee.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sprotyrover on March 16, 2020, 10:38:52 AM
Wife is worried she is in a vulnerable group and likely to be advised to self isolate our son and daughter in law are both in public services, Police and Nursing if the schools close for 16 weeks we are the only support for them re child care.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 16, 2020, 10:57:25 AM
Sproty - I don't know what is/will happening there, but here in the Netherlands although the schools are "shut", they are still open to kids of parents in essential public services (health, police and fire brigade)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sprotyrover on March 16, 2020, 11:13:23 AM
Sproty - I don't know what is/will happening there, but here in the Netherlands although the schools are "shut", they are still open to kids of parents in essential public services (health, police and fire brigade)

Thanks that makes sense hopefully the Uk will do something similar.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: 5minstogo on March 16, 2020, 11:15:57 AM
I was reading this yesterday Sproty.

https://www.tes.com/news/coronavirus-schools-close-all-children-key-workers
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 16, 2020, 11:16:39 AM
Aussies may have a cure...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8115879/COVID-19-Australian-researchers-CURE-coronavirus.html

I know it's in the DM - so most will ignore...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 16, 2020, 11:45:08 AM
Well yes because it's unlikely to be true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Ldr on March 16, 2020, 11:50:30 AM
https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/australian-researchers-within-reach-of-coronavirus-cure-c-746655
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 16, 2020, 11:52:23 AM
Well, the Govt ain't taking the lead, but we are going into lockdown from the bottom up.

https://mobile.twitter.com/PGMcNamara/status/1239461514278588418
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 16, 2020, 11:54:13 AM
https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/australian-researchers-within-reach-of-coronavirus-cure-c-746655
Ldr.

Good news for the treatment of future waves of C-19, but no help for the present.

"If the trial is successful, within three months researchers should know whether these drugs are effective in treating COVID-19."

The impending peak will have already hit us within 3 months.

I keep saying. There's no magic solution to this.

We either:
1) Keep operating as best we can, smooth the peak, but still expect 1-200k minimum extra deaths if we are very lucky.

Or

2) Have a China-scale lockdown and keep the country isolated from the rest of the world until a vaccine is ready. That will give us a Great Depression level economic hit.

Take your pick. There truly is no alternative.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 16, 2020, 11:56:18 AM
Aussies may have a cure...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8115879/COVID-19-Australian-researchers-CURE-coronavirus.html

I know it's in the DM - so most will ignore...

Interesting that they are using an HIV antiviral.

There have been reports that this virus has within it HIV traits, which has lead to speculation that what we have here is a bioengineered virus that based on a bat Coronavirus combining HIV and SARS and the finger is being pointed at the Bio Lab near the seafood market in Wuhan. All this speculation has been squashed as wild scaremongering and conspiracy.

Perhaps it is but as far as I am aware they still haven't been able to pinpoint where the zoological transition began.

Personally I think it no longer matters, it's here and we are forced to cope. Let's just hope HIV antivirals prove to be effective.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 16, 2020, 12:18:19 PM
Early morning and already very drunk British tourists not following the quarantine rules established by the Spanish government in Benidorm have to be escorted out of the beach by police.

just amazing.....
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 16, 2020, 12:20:49 PM
Before anyone gets excited here are the two most reliable news sites ................... not a mention

https://www.abc.net.au/news/

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 16, 2020, 12:25:47 PM
Before anyone gets excited here are the two most reliable news sites ................... not a mention

https://www.abc.net.au/news/

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news

TBF, I doubt even the Daily Mail would stoop so low as to publish something like that without substance...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 16, 2020, 12:26:43 PM
There may be some useful advice here

''Coronavirus: advice for employers and employees
This advice is being reviewed daily. We're monitoring government updates and when legal changes happen, we will update this page''

https://www.acas.org.uk/coronavirus
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 16, 2020, 12:30:34 PM
Brent crude has dropped to around $30 a barrel, which means the price has halved in the space of a month.

It looks like the beginnings of a deflationary spiral.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 16, 2020, 12:32:40 PM
Before anyone gets excited here are the two most reliable news sites ................... not a mention

https://www.abc.net.au/news/

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news

TBF, I doubt even the Daily Mail would stoop so low as to publish something like that without substance...

You have more faith in the DM than me. I know from direct  personal experience what they will twist to serve their purpose. Utter, unprincipled and unprofessional Kitsons.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 16, 2020, 12:33:48 PM
After digging it's probably a rehash of this which is 3 weeks old.


Possible coronavirus treatment clinical trial begins in United States

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-26/possible-coronavirus-treatment-study-begins-in-us/12002026
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: adamtherover on March 16, 2020, 12:49:41 PM
Aussies may have a cure...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8115879/COVID-19-Australian-researchers-CURE-coronavirus.html

I know it's in the DM - so most will ignore...
they very well might?,   i saw a headling grabbing article on friday night saying vaccine found!!!!,  then you read the article and they talk about 18 months to 2 years before its ready for the public??  :-(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: albie on March 16, 2020, 01:47:01 PM
Spain takes control of private healthcare and pharma to counter Covid-19.

Here Ch4 say a leaked Public Health England document reveals most frontline NHS staff won’t be tested for Covid-19 even if they have symptoms.

In Italy an open letter from Italian academics and medics, to places like the UK, is published;
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1E5AOOKQrFrhNtl5au1N5FCBqKmJiRtwwUjXIBT2vMSc/edit

Lets see what BJ says later...bated breath all round!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 16, 2020, 02:15:42 PM
Well yes because it's unlikely to be true

Before anyone gets excited here are the two most reliable news sites ................... not a mention

https://www.abc.net.au/news/

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news

Maybe there is something in it.....is Reuters reliable enough...?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-thailand/cocktail-of-flu-hiv-drugs-appears-to-help-fight-coronavirus-thai-doctors-idUSKBN1ZW0GQ
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 16, 2020, 03:11:06 PM
152 new cases in the UK - not sure if this is the final figure.  No new death total though...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Donnywolf on March 16, 2020, 03:26:28 PM
There all queueing up for bog rolls at Aldi.

Just been to Costco (Sheffield) for a ride out

Never EVER seen it so full and everyone was queuing to get out. The bit where you show Receipt and the person pretends to check you have the right amount of things

They had a 39 Pallet consignment in this morning of 40 Pack Bog Rolls and when I was there everyone had a Pack - and when I passed them they were all gone !

Chickens were restricted to 2 per member and were totally stripped !

I got 3 bottles of wine and some Waste Bags
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 16, 2020, 03:42:28 PM
152 new cases in the UK - not sure if this is the final figure.  No new death total though...

Not surprising.

The figures will swing around from day to day.

The last couple of days figures both on new cases and new deaths looked on the high side compared to what the trend had been before. These figures look on the low side. The overall trend looks about what it was at the end of last week.

See attached.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 16, 2020, 03:44:53 PM
There all queueing up for bog rolls at Aldi.

Just been to Costco (Sheffield) for a ride out

Never EVER seen it so full and everyone was queuing to get out. The bit where you show Receipt and the person pretends to check you have the right amount of things

They had a 39 Pallet consignment in this morning of 40 Pack Bog Rolls and when I was there everyone had a Pack - and when I passed them they were all gone !

Chickens were restricted to 2 per member and were totally stripped !

I got 3 bottles of wine and some Waste Bags

It truly shows how f**king thick some people are!

The peak is not coming for 10 weeks  or so. It'll be at least a month before we even get close to starting to climb up towards the peak.

What the f**k would you want to panic buy raw chicken for?

Not much of that f**king Dunkirk spirit out there, its there?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 16, 2020, 04:09:11 PM
Not much of that f**king Dunkirk spirit out there, its there?

There are some folk thinking of others..........

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51908023
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 16, 2020, 04:12:05 PM
I assume it goes without saying that the 31 Dec deadline for the end of the Brexit tradition period MUST be delayed?

No Government anywhere in the world should be dealing with anything but keeping the lights on and food on the shelves and preparing us for the coming crisis. That will take 2-3 months. Then sorting out the aftermath will take at least as long.

We do not have the luxury of deciding what the tariff will be on frozen peas going across the Channel next January.

Postpone it NOW while we deal with this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 16, 2020, 04:14:24 PM
100% agree.  Whatever our views on Brexit are, the negotiatons to get things sorted before the end of this year would be difficult to achieve in time, if not impossible.

Surely it wouldn’t be seen as political weakness to postpone by say 6 months.?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 16, 2020, 04:16:08 PM
More news on a positive slant over a vaccine....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51906604
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 16, 2020, 04:19:22 PM
More news on a positive slant over a vaccine....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51906604


BTW, I know it will still take 18 months before it may be available.... before anyone jumps down my throat...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 16, 2020, 04:25:37 PM
100% agree.  Whatever our views on Brexit are, the negotiators to get things sorted before the end of this year would be difficult to achieve in time, if not impossible.

Surely it wouldn’t be seen as political weakness to postpone by say 6 months.?

It should be a no-brainer, although doubtless there will be some who see it as a conspiracy.

Apart from the fact that every nerve and fibre of Govt must be put to the task of preparing for the C-19 epidemic, the way the global economy is dropping off a cliff at the moment suggests we are going to be in a very different world in 6 months time. So what is the point in negotiating details now, when the whole lot may be irrelevant by September?

Just postpone it. Come back to it in the Autumn.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 16, 2020, 07:00:27 PM
OMFG what a farce.!

The government is using words like “advise” “should” rather than “must”..

The WHO says “test, test test” but we’re not doing that..

We all need to avoid non essential travel and gatherings, but aren’t being told what they are.. we are told not to go to pubs etc, but these places aren’t being instructed to close..

In principle the measures are there to limit the spread etc but by god the ambiguity is terrible..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 16, 2020, 07:11:45 PM
IDM.

It also means that pubs, restaurants, theatres etc will go bust and not be able to claim on insurance, because the Govt hasn't imposed a closure.

I'm getting an increasingly  bad feeling on how we are being led here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 16, 2020, 07:16:24 PM
My partners daughter works in the pub and her job is on the line..

Do we go to the pub to support her and her colleagues, against government advice.? 

I am beginning to think this is about not paying out insurance, not paying out for tests etc..

The ambiguity is going to cause more panic buying..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 16, 2020, 07:39:50 PM
In the UK we have had panic buying on toilet rolls.

What do you think they have been panic buying in the US (a country that already has an average of 3 guns per person)

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1239611078939750400
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: drfchound on March 16, 2020, 09:21:18 PM
In the UK we have had panic buying on toilet rolls.

What do you think they have been panic buying in the US (a country that already has an average of 3 guns per person)

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1239611078939750400







I was saying to the wife, only yesterday, I wonder whether we will see anarchy on the streets.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 16, 2020, 10:15:21 PM
Massive news breaking from the epidemiology modellers advising the Govt.

Looks like a 180 degree change of policy coming very quickly.

China-style shutdown to stop the spread of the epidemic. Herd immunity and flattening the curve are off the agenda.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rtid88 on March 16, 2020, 10:17:22 PM
Where have you heard this BST???
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 16, 2020, 10:24:41 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/whippletom/status/1239619001522761728
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 16, 2020, 10:25:15 PM
I've just read the paper that has sparked this press conference. It's terrifying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 16, 2020, 10:26:29 PM
At best, flattening the curve leaves NHS ICUs 8 times overloaded for 3 months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 16, 2020, 10:29:25 PM
Here's the paper.

See Figure 2.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiMpdLj_5_oAhVWPcAKHX2OBW4QFjAAegQIBxAC&usg=AOvVaw1hsNx-bJFA4q9qC2xTRHVd
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rtid88 on March 16, 2020, 10:35:12 PM
Shit a brick......
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 16, 2020, 10:48:57 PM
Yep. I have done, reading that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nudga on March 16, 2020, 11:00:32 PM
I can't open the link
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 16, 2020, 11:01:13 PM
You got a pdf reader on your phone Nudge?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nudga on March 16, 2020, 11:03:14 PM
I don't think so
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 16, 2020, 11:06:34 PM
Herd Instinct: blindly hanging onto any dumb shit suggestion from the nearest idiot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 16, 2020, 11:30:11 PM
Nudga.

If you can't open it, here's the graph that scared the shit out of me.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 16, 2020, 11:33:09 PM
So even with the best "gentle" lockdown and social distancing, and with the herd immunity built into the model, we exceed ICU bed capacity in the middle of next month and we don't get back in control till August.

So much for flattening the curve.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 16, 2020, 11:45:13 PM
...but ...it's just a bad case of the flu.

Famous last words.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 16, 2020, 11:49:08 PM
Forgive me, but does that chart not include social distancing for all, rather than just over 70s.?

Isn’t the difference between mitigation and surpression concluded to be the implementation of social distancing for all.?

The problem then is defining social distancing - what the government has said today is vague - we are advised to employ social distancing but it isn’t mandatory.  So if the population doesn’t comply, surpression probably won’t work

Basically that means no pub etc and working at home for many months, and perhaps only going out to go to the shops and to walk the dog..

Then again this is only a model, a prediction.  I hope the government uses the prediction properly for be benefit of the population as opposed for any macro economic issues..  We need clear direction and leadership to make surpression work..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 16, 2020, 11:54:48 PM
For those who haven’t read the paper, the gist is the best way to get on top of the virus is to implement all the surpression measures including social distancing for all, the sooner the better and  for a long time. 

Fairly obvious really but with convincing arguments.

But it says nothing about the effects on the economy, jobs and livelihoods etc, on food supplies and panic buying. 

Those things scare me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 17, 2020, 12:00:11 AM
IDM.

It assumes that you can't have general social distancing if the economy is going to be able to more or less function. They look at the effect of a stronger lockdown later in the paper. They reckon we CAN keep the cases within the NHS capability if we start that strong lockdown pretty much immediately.

But. It would take 5 months of that to get the cases down to current levels. And if you then relax, you're back at crisis levels within 6 weeks. (FIG 3b if you have the paper.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 17, 2020, 12:05:17 AM
The gist is no matter what we do, we're not going to get on top of it.

It's about to ramp up and massively overwhelm the health service and the impact is going to last for months. The outcome of this is going to be a massive depression by the look of it.

The world is about to change in the next couple of weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 17, 2020, 12:22:08 AM
IDM.

It assumes that you can't have general social distancing if the economy is going to be able to more or less function. They look at the effect of a stronger lockdown later in the paper. They reckon we CAN keep the cases within the NHS capability if we start that strong lockdown pretty much immediately.

But. It would take 5 months of that to get the cases down to current levels. And if you then relax, you're back at crisis levels within 6 weeks. (FIG 3b if you have the paper.)

Yes I saw he whole analysis - stronger surpressive measures for longer.  I just didn’t read very much about the effects on the economy etc, then again that wasn’t the purpose of that report.

What was quite stark was the comparative analysis of deaths: do nothing and we could be looking at half a million, impose strict controls before the NHS maxes out and maintain them until ICU usage drops well below capacity (repeating as required) could - according to their predictions - see less than 10000 deaths.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 17, 2020, 12:24:58 AM
Not only does the NHS have a serious shortage of ventilators, it has a serious shortage protective equipment for healthcare workers.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/16/not-fit-for-purpose-uk-medics-condemn-covid-19-protection

Such a serious shortage, that one doctor is quoted as saying he's so scared about it, he doesn't know if he can continue working as a doctor.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/im-losing-faith-in-the-leadership-a-doctors-story-coronavirus
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: albie on March 17, 2020, 12:52:37 AM
RD,

The liklihood of loss of front line health professionals will further erode any resilience within the NHS.

It is clear as a bell that Johnson and Hancock are functionally innumerate, and so incapable of reaching rational conclusions based on data analyses. Less clear is why the advisors have taken positions against the mainstream opinion in their field.

BJ is so incompetent he cannot even get the messaging right, let alone the science.
The extent of his incompetence is such that he cannot even see that he is incompetent, and so stand down for a more suitable person.

I fear the worst under these fools.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 17, 2020, 01:10:45 AM
Trump has started referIng to C-19 in his tweets as "the Chinese virus"

The Chinese government have been suggesting the expected second wave of C-19 is going to be the fault of foreigners.

It's pretty obvious where this is heading.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: adamtherover on March 17, 2020, 05:04:21 AM
One persons thoughts of it all!!   

https://www.facebook.com/mahmoud.elawadi.9/videos/10163288717110720/?sfnsn=scwspwa&d=w&vh=i&d=w&vh=i&extid=lhBjZFuKhsGP2xjD

Makes an interesting listen!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: GazLaz on March 17, 2020, 06:03:04 AM
Massive news breaking from the epidemiology modellers advising the Govt.

Looks like a 180 degree change of policy coming very quickly.

China-style shutdown to stop the spread of the epidemic. Herd immunity and flattening the curve are off the agenda.

That was pretty obvious wasn’t it. How the f**k Boris and his two puppets didn’t realise that straight away I’ll never know.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rich1471 on March 17, 2020, 06:42:56 AM
Just hird all pubs , bars , cafes and restaurants could close as early as Monday
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Superspy on March 17, 2020, 08:16:33 AM
That paper is pretty f**king terrifying, but I've appreciated finally having some real data based on real world assumptions to look at, so thanks for posting it BST.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rtid88 on March 17, 2020, 08:49:53 AM
Yep. I have done, reading that.
Me too BST.... Terrifying!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 17, 2020, 08:53:59 AM
Thing is. I KNEW this in my heart. But seeing it laid out by the experts is the scary thing. I'd been hoping I was missing something.

But. There it is.

Good luck everyone. It's going to be a hard 12-18 months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 17, 2020, 09:27:29 AM
Even if you think you are prepared, there is still that sinking feeling when the reality bites.

I felt it when it started taking off in Italy, I knew it was in Western Europe and it was only a short time before it would be here.

Then reading that paper blew away all hope that it would be anything but a nightmare.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 17, 2020, 09:37:09 AM
Most generations, through most of history, have dealt with massive crises.

This past 75 years has been the exception, not the rule. We got used to living in stable, prosperous, peaceful times.

It's our turn to be put through the mill now. Let's see what we are made of.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 17, 2020, 09:58:55 AM
There is a hope that since their figures and modelling errs on the side of caution and is conservative with a small c, the actual numbers may not prove to be so bad.  I accept they will still be bad, but any reduction will be most welcome.!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Pancho Regan on March 17, 2020, 10:09:19 AM
The added worry is, in times of national crisis, you desperately need strong leaders.
Leaders with wisdom, clarity of thought, with exceptional communication skills.

I don't see any.

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 17, 2020, 10:12:49 AM
The added worry is, in times of national crisis, you desperately need strong leaders.
Leaders with wisdom, clarity of thought, with exceptional communication skills.

I don't see any.

 

Amen to that.

Johnson has always fancied himself as Churchill. Let's hope the similarity extends to more than just a liking for the bottle.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: bigbadjack on March 17, 2020, 10:24:10 AM
My daughter goes to Macauley and we have been told as from tomorrow only yr11&13 are allowed in I imagine other schools may follow very soon
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 17, 2020, 10:34:11 AM
Ours is meant to be going back tomorrow after the school has had a deep clean. No word on the suspected case with a staff member.

I'm begining to wonder if it might just be better for her to claim she's sick.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 17, 2020, 10:36:27 AM
Schools will be shut nationwide by next Monday at the latest. Universities too, although many have already made the decision for the Govt
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 17, 2020, 10:38:52 AM
Poster on social distancing that may help some.......

(https://www.owlstalk.co.uk/forums/uploads/monthly_2020_03/0A6D7593-1443-4998-B44D-37FB935FBDCB.thumb.png.5183bc716e7f21a53271f477cbdd8cbf.png)

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 17, 2020, 10:40:53 AM
The added worry is, in times of national crisis, you desperately need strong leaders.
Leaders with wisdom, clarity of thought, with exceptional communication skills.

I don't see any.

 

And we think WE have problems Pancho.

https://mobile.twitter.com/OleGranny2/status/1239688980028891141
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 17, 2020, 10:57:03 AM
Get ready for this, here, next week. A form to fill in if you want to leave the house.

(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/624/cpsprodpb/vivo/live/images/2020/3/17/201cf082-23c1-48d5-acc8-16e69ace644f.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 17, 2020, 10:58:14 AM
It begins.

Laura Ashley gone into administration.

Carluccios restaurants warn they are days away from administration.

Carphone warehouse to close 531 stores.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Superspy on March 17, 2020, 11:04:28 AM
In fairness Dixons Carphone have said the CW closures are nothing to do with the virus and they were shutting them anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 17, 2020, 11:18:34 AM
On a lighter note, just busted my dentist in the queue at Aldi stockpiling 15 large bars of chocolate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 17, 2020, 11:23:05 AM
This is a crisis. A large crisis. In fact, if you got a moment, it's a twelve-storey crisis with a magnificent entrance hall, carpeting throughout, 24-hour portage, and an enormous sign on the roof, saying 'This Is a Large Crisis'.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 17, 2020, 11:25:39 AM
Sounds like Rimmer.?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 17, 2020, 11:29:25 AM
I wonder what the government will announce today, about finances..?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Superspy on March 17, 2020, 11:32:58 AM
Sounds like Rimmer.?

Close, Blackadder. :D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 17, 2020, 11:45:10 AM
In fairness Dixons Carphone have said the CW closures are nothing to do with the virus and they were shutting them anyway.

Just read that on the BBC it's 2900 jobs

added: Almost 40% of staff (1,800) affected by the closures are expected to take new roles in the business, the firm said.

Not sure about the maths though?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 17, 2020, 11:57:28 AM
A lot of talk by Osbourne and others about underwriting bank loans for business by the government with some good suggestions from the mob saying that it shouldn't be done for those businesses that use aggressive tax avoidance.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 17, 2020, 12:16:13 PM
The latest figures coming out of China are astonishing if they are correct with only 21 new cases and 13 deaths.

80,881   +21   3,226   +13   68,709   8,946   3,226   56.2

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 17, 2020, 12:17:08 PM
A study in Italy based on a town of 3000 people is showing between 50% and 75% of infected people are asymptomatic

https://www.repubblica.it/salute/medicina-e-ricerca/2020/03/16/news/coronavirus_studio_il_50-75_dei_casi_a_vo_sono_asintomatici_e_molto_contagiosi-251474302/?ref=RHPPTP-BH-I251454518-C120-P3-S2.4-T1 (https://www.repubblica.it/salute/medicina-e-ricerca/2020/03/16/news/coronavirus_studio_il_50-75_dei_casi_a_vo_sono_asintomatici_e_molto_contagiosi-251474302/?ref=RHPPTP-BH-I251454518-C120-P3-S2.4-T1)
(its in italian but you can translate it via google)

What it means for me and you is that we might already have it now without even knowing it. What it means for how we cope with the pandemic, I don't really know. The only common demoinator for how S.Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore slowed the spread was that they implemented measures such as school closures as early as January and it is common there to wear masks (its frustrating to me we put so much focus on surface transmition in the West, hand-washing was an ideology before the evidence). Hong Kong has a week long lockdown, its second, (apparently slowly ending now) and we know S.Korea has tested the most (and some are suggesting the openess of the gov with the people had an impact also - contrast USA).

It seems there was nothing instrinsically magical in those country's responses, they just acted much quicker, and had much better, direct advice to the population (based on their previous experiences with sars). Western governments have seemingly resigned themselves to letting this run through the population at a (un)manageble rate. I repeat, I think if govenments aren't preparing temporary ICU facilities now, its a gross travesty.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 17, 2020, 12:26:42 PM
Another thing. Many asian countries seem to be now doing rigourous, on the spot testing at borders, while many Western countries have given up on testing the population at large.

South Korean biotech firms are sending half a million testing kits to the west
https://www.asiae.co.kr/article/2020031609341102857 (https://www.asiae.co.kr/article/2020031609341102857)
(in Korean, again, right click 'translate to english')

Testing helps. It gives you information. Information you can act with, rather than reacting to the situation.

When this all settles, another question our governments and health authorities will have to answer to is why there were such dramatic shortcomings in our testing systems.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 17, 2020, 12:28:15 PM
A study in Italy based on a town of 3000 people is showing between 50% and 75% of infected people are asymptomatic

https://www.repubblica.it/salute/medicina-e-ricerca/2020/03/16/news/coronavirus_studio_il_50-75_dei_casi_a_vo_sono_asintomatici_e_molto_contagiosi-251474302/?ref=RHPPTP-BH-I251454518-C120-P3-S2.4-T1 (https://www.repubblica.it/salute/medicina-e-ricerca/2020/03/16/news/coronavirus_studio_il_50-75_dei_casi_a_vo_sono_asintomatici_e_molto_contagiosi-251474302/?ref=RHPPTP-BH-I251454518-C120-P3-S2.4-T1)
(its in italian but you can translate it via google)

What it means for me and you is that we might already have it now without even knowing it. What it means for how we cope with the pandemic, I don't really know. The only common demoinator for how S.Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore slowed the spread was that they implemented measures such as school closures as early as January and it is common there to wear masks (its frustrating to me we put so much focus on surface transmition in the West, hand-washing was an ideology before the evidence). Hong Kong has a week long lockdown, its second, (apparently slowly ending now) and we know S.Korea has tested the most (and some are suggesting the openess of the gov with the people had an impact also - contrast USA).

It seems there was nothing instrinsically magical in those country's responses, they just acted much quicker, and had much better, direct advice to the population (based on their previous experiences with sars). Western governments have seemingly resigned themselves to letting this run through the population at a (un)manageble rate. I repeat, I think if govenments aren't preparing temporary ICU facilities now, its a gross travesty.

Whitty said yesterday evening that he thought they were close to a test to find those who have had the virus.

Let's hope so, that might be transformational.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 17, 2020, 12:29:40 PM
Money.. simple as that, I reckon..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: GazLaz on March 17, 2020, 12:33:26 PM
Did anyone actually have any faith in the decision makers in the UK actually doing a good job of this? It was obvious they would make a mess of it. Slow to react, indecisive and probably worst of all they make decisions based on factors other than what if the right thing to do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 17, 2020, 12:39:10 PM
A report from China of some success with Vitamin C. That would be a nice cheap solution.

https://www.globalresearch.ca/three-intravenous-vitamin-c-research-studies-approved-treating-covid-19/5705405


Whatever getting extra vitamin C now is a good idea. It helps the immune system. A little and often is best, keep sipping a carton of orange juice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BigH on March 17, 2020, 12:40:33 PM
Money.. simple as that, I reckon..
A big factor for sure.

Makes you wonder whether they could/should have set up testing sites in every major supermarket car park weeks ago. Too late now.

No wonder Sth Korea and Singapore are p**sed off after the lengths they've gone to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Pancho Regan on March 17, 2020, 12:42:35 PM
The added worry is, in times of national crisis, you desperately need strong leaders.
Leaders with wisdom, clarity of thought, with exceptional communication skills.

I don't see any.

 

And we think WE have problems Pancho.

https://mobile.twitter.com/OleGranny2/status/1239688980028891141

Quite right BST.

My Missus and I were saying this last night. We might think we have an incompetent PM but just imagine what it must be like to have Trump as your leader, especially at a time like this.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 17, 2020, 12:50:34 PM
Money.. simple as that, I reckon..
A big factor for sure.

Makes you wonder whether they could/should have set up testing sites in every major supermarket car park weeks ago. Too late now.

No wonder Sth Korea and Singapore are p**sed off after the lengths they've gone to.

The issue for Singapore now is food supply, it essentially being an island and completely dependent on food imports.

I studied the the 2007-08 food crisis (mostly in Asia) during my undergrad days. What actually happens is richer countries (like Singapore) start to stockpile foodstuffs (Singapore practices widespread state stockpiling of food already) and that translates into lower supply for the surrounding poorer Asian countries. Poorer people in those poorer countries will be the first affected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 17, 2020, 12:56:26 PM
A report from China of some success with Vitamin C. That would be a nice cheap solution.

https://www.globalresearch.ca/three-intravenous-vitamin-c-research-studies-approved-treating-covid-19/5705405


Whatever getting extra vitamin C now is a good idea. It helps the immune system. A little and often is best, keep sipping a carton of orange juice.

Come to think of it, in relation to this, it'll be a good idea to lay off alcohol and caffeine too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: adamtherover on March 17, 2020, 01:12:08 PM
Schools will be shut nationwide by next Monday at the latest. Universities too, although many have already made the decision for the Govt

has this got any substance BST, or is it an opinion?.  not that i doubt it happening for a second?  Ive a lad at primary skool..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Monkcaster_Rover on March 17, 2020, 01:16:14 PM
Schools will be shut nationwide by next Monday at the latest. Universities too, although many have already made the decision for the Govt

has this got any substance BST, or is it an opinion?.  not that i doubt it happening for a second?  Ive a lad at primary skool..

A lad I live with his uni has been shut down. Everything being done online.

IMO, I believe we haven't shut schools down is due to the fact a lot of the NHS work force are nurses with kids in schools.

If I get forced to work from home, my line of work will drop off massively. I'll be looking at volunteering my services (if allowed) at local hospitals if allowed.

Probably won't be, but it'll be worth an ask.

All hands on deck where possible, I think.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 17, 2020, 01:20:05 PM
I posted earlier, in several countries where they have closed down schools they stay open for essential service workers. Hope the UK does the same.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: idler on March 17, 2020, 01:29:58 PM
My daughter has two boys. The eldest is in his final year at Cambridge he was sent home and got back yesterday. His younger brother was sent home from his course in Frankfurt on Saturday as one of the tutors there had apparently tested positive. My daughter is a primary school teacher in Bradford and they are having daily review meetings.
One step-daughter is a civilian worker for the police and they have been told that they may have to cover police officers in desk jobs etc. if the uniformed and detectives have to cover colleagues who are off sick.
There must be so much going off in the background that we aren't aware of.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: albie on March 17, 2020, 02:02:55 PM
Someone asked for a summary of the Imperial report, here is the FT version;
https://www.ft.com/content/249daf9a-67c3-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3

Wired also has a version:
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/coronavirus-uk-suppression-response

Just seen CSO Vallance answering questions from former Health Sec Jeremy Hunt and others.
Very keen to stress that he is an ADVISOR, and so gives ADVICE to the decision makers.
"All I can do is give the science advice" I heard him say.

Tells you all you need to know really!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: albie on March 17, 2020, 03:04:04 PM
7 weeks.
That is the time wasted on "herd immunity" and the Nudge Unit behavioural advice.

The editor of the Lancet tweets about it here;
https://twitter.com/richardhorton1/status/1239807835984273408

The original article in the Lancet from January 24 is here;
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext

So if you here the new information line trotted out, yes, there is always new information as a crisis develops, but the UK could have taken a precautionary stance much sooner.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nudga on March 17, 2020, 04:05:34 PM
Isolation for me!
Started yesterday with what I thought was a bit of hay-fever. Scratchy eyes, sneezing, foggy head.
Today, dry cough. Had a call earlier from the missus and was told the school had sent home my two boys who have started with a dry repetitive cough.

Got to be honest and say that I feel like a bloody fraud.
I never have time off unless I can't physically get out of bed.
I don't know if I have it or not and I'm still pissed off with the scaremongering but still doing the right thing and staying at home for a few days.

#prayfornudga
#washyourf**kinhands
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: drfchound on March 17, 2020, 04:09:43 PM
Did anyone actually have any faith in the decision makers in the UK actually doing a good job of this? It was obvious they would make a mess of it. Slow to react, indecisive and probably worst of all they make decisions based on factors other than what if the right thing to do.






It isn’t just the decision makers in the UK who are getting stick from the public Gaz.
Sydney tells us that it is much the same in Australia.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Ldr on March 17, 2020, 04:10:23 PM
Isolation for me!
Started yesterday with what I thought was a bit of hay-fever. Scratchy eyes, sneezing, foggy head.
Today, dry cough. Had a call earlier from the missus and was told the school had sent home my two boys who have started with a dry repetitive cough.

Got to be honest and say that I feel like a bloody fraud.
I never have time off unless I can't physically get out of bed.
I don't know if I have it or not and I'm still pissed off with the scaremongering but still doing the right thing and staying at home for a few days.

#prayfornudga
#washyourf**kinhands

Stay safe mate
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Colin C No.3 on March 17, 2020, 05:18:58 PM
The added worry is, in times of national crisis, you desperately need strong leaders.
Leaders with wisdom, clarity of thought, with exceptional communication skills.

I don't see any.

 

Amen to that.

Johnson has always fancied himself as Churchill. Let's hope the similarity extends to more than just a liking for the bottle.

He’s very keen to remind the Nation (usually when he’s stuttered over a question asked by Laura Kuenssberg) “Wash your hands.....regularly” then proceeds to run his hands through that bloody mop on top of his head!

Would you want to shake that hand?!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bristol Red Rover on March 17, 2020, 05:33:11 PM
Possibly the best perspective I've seen on this. Be warned, not immediately simple to follow, but is very clear. A 10 min vid.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_AyuhbnPOI

As far as I've been able to see, even those most likely to criticise aren't finding issues.
https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/46056/is-covid-19-more-dangerous-than-typical-annual-coronavirus-variants

This guy has history, being a prime mover
http://www.pharmatimes.com/news/eu_to_probe_pharma_over_false_pandemic_982876
in what resulted in this.
http://www.pharmatimes.com/news/council_of_europe_assembly_slams_who,_pharma_over_pandemic_983020

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 17, 2020, 05:56:50 PM
Schools will be shut nationwide by next Monday at the latest. Universities too, although many have already made the decision for the Govt

has this got any substance BST, or is it an opinion?.  not that i doubt it happening for a second?  Ive a lad at primary skool..

It's my prediction.

Based on the assumption that our Govt will make logical, rational decisions, so I entirely accept that it may be flawed.

Seriously, I cannot see how anyone can read that Imperial College paper from last night and not realise that we are going into very serious lockdown from next week at the earliest.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 17, 2020, 06:01:54 PM
Possibly the best perspective I've seen on this. Be warned, not immediately simple to follow, but is very clear. A 10 min vid.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_AyuhbnPOI

As far as I've been able to see, even those most likely to criticise aren't finding issues.
https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/46056/is-covid-19-more-dangerous-than-typical-annual-coronavirus-variants

This guy has history, being a prime mover
http://www.pharmatimes.com/news/eu_to_probe_pharma_over_false_pandemic_982876
in what resulted in this.
http://www.pharmatimes.com/news/council_of_europe_assembly_slams_who,_pharma_over_pandemic_983020

Its an interesting debate, and I think one that will go way over people's heads.

But essentially, we can surely test what he is saying, right? I.e. is this is a typical flu/corona season or not based on what we would usually expect in a normal year vs. the year we are currently in.

I do agree with the broad issue that the testing is all over the place, and I do not understand how any scientist infers anything with a degree of confidence from the data we have.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 17, 2020, 06:09:08 PM
Copps

This is not a 5-sigma confidence issue. In many sectors, vitally important decisions have to be taken with seriously imperfect data.

That's why pure scientists have relatively little direct and immediate impact on the world. Their research is idealised and esoteric. It may well point the way to the massive changes that affect us in 50-100 years time, but it's next to useless in terms of helping day-to-day decisions.

For that, you rely on applied research  scientists and engineers, who accept the real, messy, imperfect world, and do real, messy, imperfect research. It's not categorical. But it's the best you can do. And we would be taking unfathomable risks to ignore what they are saying, when the risks are so high.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: adamtherover on March 17, 2020, 06:11:13 PM
Schools will be shut nationwide by next Monday at the latest. Universities too, although many have already made the decision for the Govt

has this got any substance BST, or is it an opinion?.  not that i doubt it happening for a second?  Ive a lad at primary skool..

It's my prediction.

Based on the assumption that our Govt will make logical, rational decisions, so I entirely accept that it may be flawed.

Seriously, I cannot see how anyone can read that Imperial College paper from last night and not realise that we are going into very serious lockdown from next week at the earliest.
thanks mate for the heads up, 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 17, 2020, 06:27:31 PM
No problem.

I've just got in from work so I haven't seen Johnson's press conference. If he's not announced the school closure, that is just...beyond belief. How the f**k are people supposed to plan? It is as plain as day from that paper. If we do not go into a serious lockdown by "late March", the NHS starts falling over by mid-April.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bristol Red Rover on March 17, 2020, 07:02:09 PM
Possibly the best perspective I've seen on this. Be warned, not immediately simple to follow, but is very clear. A 10 min vid.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_AyuhbnPOI

As far as I've been able to see, even those most likely to criticise aren't finding issues.
https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/46056/is-covid-19-more-dangerous-than-typical-annual-coronavirus-variants

This guy has history, being a prime mover
http://www.pharmatimes.com/news/eu_to_probe_pharma_over_false_pandemic_982876
in what resulted in this.
http://www.pharmatimes.com/news/council_of_europe_assembly_slams_who,_pharma_over_pandemic_983020

Its an interesting debate, and I think one that will go way over people's heads.

But essentially, we can surely test what he is saying, right? I.e. is this is a typical flu/corona season or not based on what we would usually expect in a normal year vs. the year we are currently in.

I do agree with the broad issue that the testing is all over the place, and I do not understand how any scientist infers anything with a degree of confidence from the data we have.

I'd need to watch it again again to give a summary! But he is say, as are others, that there is little to show this whole thing is outside the ordinary. Here's another link from a Swiss doctor re Italy suggesting little outside the ordinary is occuring:
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

I think the real evidence will show eventually, but so far I think what he is saying needs to be considered very seriously. WHO has a history of being very pro pharma, as is shown in one of those links. As to why this has been whipped up... I guess if you look at result s of the panic so far, it's around 10-3 to China, just saying!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 18, 2020, 08:30:04 AM
The Japanese appear to have something that is quite effective with those sick but not in a critical condition.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/japanese-flu-drug-clearly-effective-in-treating-coronavirus-says-china
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jackthelad on March 18, 2020, 10:34:08 AM
When do people expect the lockdown to come into place?surely a matter of time?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: sha66y on March 18, 2020, 10:39:04 AM
A guy was turned away from my place of work......drives a Toyota Corona!

The worlds gone mad ....politically mad!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 18, 2020, 11:00:39 AM
The Aus gov't is not closing schools saying that we would lose 1/3 of medical staff having to stay home to look after them and the possibility that grandparents would look after a lot of them and be at further risk.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 18, 2020, 11:29:09 AM
The Aus gov't is not closing schools saying that we would lose 1/3 of medical staff having to stay home to look after them and the possibility that grandparents would look after a lot of them and be at further risk.

There is logic in that...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 18, 2020, 11:36:55 AM
It's hard to know, if the figures are right about the numbers of parents working in the medical field? but they could be taking a gamble that kids mixing at school don't get it and pass the virus on to these same parents.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 18, 2020, 11:42:51 AM
It's hard to know, if the figures are right about the numbers of parents working in the medical field? but they could be taking a gamble that kids mixing at school don't get it and pass the virus on to these same parents.

Agreed... although the kids seem to be more robust that us adults...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 18, 2020, 11:49:31 AM
yep, and we won't know that until the gov't steps up testing which seems to be a problem in many countries.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 18, 2020, 11:57:18 AM
The Aus gov't is not closing schools saying that we would lose 1/3 of medical staff having to stay home to look after them and the possibility that grandparents would look after a lot of them and be at further risk.

I think that is short sighted. Kids are potentially super spreaders, one gets infected goes to school for a week without symptoms and the majority have it. Then they go home in the evening and mum and dad get it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 18, 2020, 01:11:51 PM
The Aus gov't is not closing schools saying that we would lose 1/3 of medical staff having to stay home to look after them and the possibility that grandparents would look after a lot of them and be at further risk.

I think that is short sighted. Kids are potentially super spreaders, one gets infected goes to school for a week without symptoms and the majority have it. Then they go home in the evening and mum and dad get it.

It is very short sighted. According to the Imperial College modelling, shutting schools and Universities is key to being able to contain the epidemics in each country to levels that the health services can deal with.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Ldr on March 18, 2020, 02:28:45 PM
Although 2 things may be in the thinking, hasn't it been reported that young people are less likely to suffer from the virus, and the amount of NHS staff you would lose out of the front line to look after kids at home. It's a hard balancing act. Glad I dont have to decide
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 18, 2020, 02:54:31 PM
Although 2 things may be in the thinking, hasn't it been reported that young people are less likely to suffer from the virus, and the amount of NHS staff you would lose out of the front line to look after kids at home. It's a hard balancing act. Glad I dont have to decide

It has.... I also can't see kids wanting to be penned in at home... or the parents wanting them under their feet all day and night either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 18, 2020, 03:17:44 PM
Although 2 things may be in the thinking, hasn't it been reported that young people are less likely to suffer from the virus, and the amount of NHS staff you would lose out of the front line to look after kids at home. It's a hard balancing act. Glad I dont have to decide

It has.... I also can't see kids wanting to be penned in at home... or the parents wanting them under their feet all day and night either.

I usually find it isn't difficult keeping them in if they have digital devices. Getting them out into the fresh air can be more of a challenge.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bristol Red Rover on March 18, 2020, 03:42:52 PM
The Aus gov't is not closing schools saying that we would lose 1/3 of medical staff having to stay home to look after them and the possibility that grandparents would look after a lot of them and be at further risk.

I think that is short sighted. Kids are potentially super spreaders, one gets infected goes to school for a week without symptoms and the majority have it. Then they go home in the evening and mum and dad get it.

It is very short sighted. According to the Imperial College modelling, shutting schools and Universities is key to being able to contain the epidemics in each country to levels that the health services can deal with.

It's all in the timing. Meanwhile, keeping the virus spreading in the wider world whilst keeping the vulnerable in isolation , ie those who would be using the critical health facilities, is the key here. Stopping the virus is not a viable plan.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 18, 2020, 04:26:05 PM
Although 2 things may be in the thinking, hasn't it been reported that young people are less likely to suffer from the virus, and the amount of NHS staff you would lose out of the front line to look after kids at home. It's a hard balancing act. Glad I dont have to decide

It has.... I also can't see kids wanting to be penned in at home... or the parents wanting them under their feet all day and night either.

I usually find it isn't difficult keeping them in if they have digital devices. Getting them out into the fresh air can be more of a challenge.

True - would it be worth putting effort into keeping primaries open.  By secondary school many can be left alone without permanent supervision...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 18, 2020, 05:52:21 PM
Schools closed down for an indefinite period from Friday. Got to do it really. Our total number of deaths is exactly tracking where Italy was two weeks ago.

Their rate of increase in deaths is just starting to slow down after 9 days of lock down. Hopefully ours will follow, but it's going to be bloody hard work.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dare to dream! on March 18, 2020, 05:59:44 PM
Schools closed down for an indefinite period from Friday. Got to do it really. Our total number of deaths is exactly tracking where Italy was two weeks ago.

Their rate of increase in deaths is just starting to slow down after 9 days of lock down. Hopefully ours will follow, but it's going to be bloody hard work.

Italy have today recorded their largest death rate....
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 18, 2020, 06:00:21 PM
The Aus gov't is not closing schools saying that we would lose 1/3 of medical staff having to stay home to look after them and the possibility that grandparents would look after a lot of them and be at further risk.

I think that is short sighted. Kids are potentially super spreaders, one gets infected goes to school for a week without symptoms and the majority have it. Then they go home in the evening and mum and dad get it.

Australia not shutting down schools now is insane. Their rate of deaths is about 10 days behind ours and about 25 days behind Italy. If there is one key lesson from this, it is that the sooner you act, the easier it is to control the spread and the shorter thetime you need draconian measures.

With hindsight, we should have been locking down a fortnight ago. But in fairness, we didn't because there wasn't enough information to justify that. Australia doesn't have that excuse. They can see precisely how the spread is going in developed countries and they could save themselves a hell of a lot of deaths and costs if they locked down now. It's bordering on criminal irresponsibility not to be acting now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 18, 2020, 06:06:15 PM
Schools closed down for an indefinite period from Friday. Got to do it really. Our total number of deaths is exactly tracking where Italy was two weeks ago.

Their rate of increase in deaths is just starting to slow down after 9 days of lock down. Hopefully ours will follow, but it's going to be bloody hard work.

Italy have today recorded their largest death rate....

Agreed. Bu the rate at which the trend is increasing day by day has been slowing over the past week. That's the first indication of getting on top of it.

2 weeks ago, their number of new deaths per day was doubling every 2 days. This past week, the trend has been doubling about every 6-7 days.

The number of new deaths will keep on increasing for another week or two. But the key thing is, how much it is increasing day on day. If it starts to stabilise at the same number of new deaths per day, it means that their measures have got the spread under control. For now, anyway, whilever the lockdown continues.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 18, 2020, 06:09:22 PM
Put it another way. If the rate of increase of deaths in Italy had carried on increasing at the rate it was doing up to ten days ago, they'd have about 10,000 dead now. In fact the number is about 3000. That is a very significant achievement.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bristol Red Rover on March 18, 2020, 06:24:35 PM
Isn't the big prob in Italy with the localisation? Cases here appear to be more widespread, not that we fully know. If so, that gives us some slack. We'll see.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 18, 2020, 07:37:51 PM
Another thing. Many asian countries seem to be now doing rigourous, on the spot testing at borders, while many Western countries have given up on testing the population at large.

South Korean biotech firms are sending half a million testing kits to the west
https://www.asiae.co.kr/article/2020031609341102857 (https://www.asiae.co.kr/article/2020031609341102857)
(in Korean, again, right click 'translate to english')

Testing helps. It gives you information. Information you can act with, rather than reacting to the situation.

When this all settles, another question our governments and health authorities will have to answer to is why there were such dramatic shortcomings in our testing systems.

To add to what I said here, see this video. 86% of cases remain undiagnosed. If those cases are diagnosed (i.e. tested for) infection rates could be cut by 79%. Its as simple as that, we should have tested from the start and continued testing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AToF8O5T86s (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AToF8O5T86s)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: drfchound on March 18, 2020, 07:42:50 PM
Another thing. Many asian countries seem to be now doing rigourous, on the spot testing at borders, while many Western countries have given up on testing the population at large.

South Korean biotech firms are sending half a million testing kits to the west
https://www.asiae.co.kr/article/2020031609341102857 (https://www.asiae.co.kr/article/2020031609341102857)
(in Korean, again, right click 'translate to english')

Testing helps. It gives you information. Information you can act with, rather than reacting to the situation.

When this all settles, another question our governments and health authorities will have to answer to is why there were such dramatic shortcomings in our testing systems.

To add to what I said here, see this video. 86% of cases remain undiagnosed. If those cases are diagnosed (i.e. tested for) infection rates could be cut by 79%. Its as simple as that, we should have tested from the start and continued testing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AToF8O5T86s (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AToF8O5T86s)







I said much the same at tea time tonight CiM.
In fact I have spoken to three people today who suspect that they may have already had the virus but haven’t been tested.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 18, 2020, 08:43:56 PM
The Aus gov't is not closing schools saying that we would lose 1/3 of medical staff having to stay home to look after them and the possibility that grandparents would look after a lot of them and be at further risk.

I think that is short sighted. Kids are potentially super spreaders, one gets infected goes to school for a week without symptoms and the majority have it. Then they go home in the evening and mum and dad get it.

It is very short sighted. According to the Imperial College modelling, shutting schools and Universities is key to being able to contain the epidemics in each country to levels that the health services can deal with.

It's all in the timing. Meanwhile, keeping the virus spreading in the wider world whilst keeping the vulnerable in isolation , ie those who would be using the critical health facilities, is the key here. Stopping the virus is not a viable plan.


Madness. That was Johnson's original plan that he worked out on the back of a fag packet would cause 50000 premature deaths. Until Imperial College this week pointed out it would be nearer 250000 premature deaths.

We are currently at a death rate higher than Italy at this stage in their outbreak. Stopping it is the ONLY viable plan or the NHS will be overwhelmed in days.

South Korea stopped it by a massive testing programme. China have almost stopped it by testing and lockdown. Taiwan never let it get out of control by testing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 18, 2020, 09:51:31 PM
Schools closed down for an indefinite period from Friday. Got to do it really. Our total number of deaths is exactly tracking where Italy was two weeks ago.

Their rate of increase in deaths is just starting to slow down after 9 days of lock down. Hopefully ours will follow, but it's going to be bloody hard work.

Italy have today recorded their largest death rate....

Agreed. Bu the rate at which the trend is increasing day by day has been slowing over the past week. That's the first indication of getting on top of it.

2 weeks ago, their number of new deaths per day was doubling every 2 days. This past week, the trend has been doubling about every 6-7 days.

The number of new deaths will keep on increasing for another week or two. But the key thing is, how much it is increasing day on day. If it starts to stabilise at the same number of new deaths per day, it means that their measures have got the spread under control. For now, anyway, whilever the lockdown continues.

On this topic, there is some dreadful reporting by the BBC. Leading headline talking about Italy's number of new dead "soaring again" but not a word about the real story - that they appear to be getting the rise under control.

The BBC is supposed to "inform, educate and entertain".

Reporting like that does none of those things. It misleads by sensationalising. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: albie on March 18, 2020, 10:12:32 PM
CIM is right about the need for testing, but even if it is pushed out now it is chasing the original mistake of failing to test at the outset.

Worth repeating than the Imperial study has some assumptions that may not hold.

It is not known if full immunity is conferred by infection, or if it can repeat in a later cycle.
The impact of seasonality is not modelled. This is relevant to the capacity shortfall in the NHS, although we are talking about the extent of under provision here, given the UK austerity fetish since 2010.

Emergency Powers for the next 2 years are in prospect, without sunset clauses.
These may be the lasting legacy if they are not retired in orderly fashion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 19, 2020, 07:46:50 AM
The Aus gov't is not closing schools saying that we would lose 1/3 of medical staff having to stay home to look after them and the possibility that grandparents would look after a lot of them and be at further risk.

I think that is short sighted. Kids are potentially super spreaders, one gets infected goes to school for a week without symptoms and the majority have it. Then they go home in the evening and mum and dad get it.

It is very short sighted. According to the Imperial College modelling, shutting schools and Universities is key to being able to contain the epidemics in each country to levels that the health services can deal with.

It's all in the timing. Meanwhile, keeping the virus spreading in the wider world whilst keeping the vulnerable in isolation , ie those who would be using the critical health facilities, is the key here. Stopping the virus is not a viable plan.


Madness. That was Johnson's original plan that he worked out on the back of a fag packet would cause 50000 premature deaths. Until Imperial College this week pointed out it would be nearer 250000 premature deaths.

We are currently at a death rate higher than Italy at this stage in their outbreak. Stopping it is the ONLY viable plan or the NHS will be overwhelmed in days.

South Korea stopped it by a massive testing programme. China have almost stopped it by testing and lockdown. Taiwan never let it get out of control by testing.

I'm very hopeful about the antibody test Whitty and Vallance say is very close now.

Once we can start pinpointing those who have recovered, it means slowly, slowly the grip of quarantine can start to be lessened safely. I think it will be a game changer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ravenrover on March 19, 2020, 09:33:44 AM
No new DOMESTIC cases in China today, if you believe it, but what is actually meant by DOMESTIC?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jackthelad on March 19, 2020, 09:40:04 AM
Lockdown today?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 19, 2020, 10:24:13 AM
Fascinating read here from a senior economic historian.

https://blogs.warwick.ac.uk/markharrison/entry/the_war_on/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 19, 2020, 10:24:56 AM
And this.
https://mobile.twitter.com/paulmromer/status/1240450670320377859

Maybe that's the road to recovery.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 19, 2020, 11:53:25 AM
No new DOMESTIC cases in China today, if you believe it, but what is actually meant by DOMESTIC?

The Chinese government is positioning itself to blame foreigners for a remergence of the virus in a second wave when they try lifting restrictions.

Hence the differentiation. The virus is controlled amongst the domestic population but foreigners might still be carrying it.

Trump is looking to play a similar game labelling it "the Chinese virus"

It's dispicapable behaviour.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 19, 2020, 12:17:29 PM
A way forward?

''A scientific study, rolled out by the University of Padua, with the help of the Veneto Region and the Red Cross, consisted of testing all 3,300 inhabitants of the town, including asymptomatic people. The goal was to study the natural history of the virus, the transmission dynamics and the categories at risk.

The researchers explained they had tested the inhabitants twice and that the study led to the discovery of the decisive role in the spread of the coronavirus epidemic of asymptomatic people.

When the study began, on 6 March, there were at least 90 infected in Vò. For days now, there have been no new cases''

''The research allowed for the identification of at least six asymptomatic people who tested positive for Covid-19. ‘‘If these people had not been discovered,” said the researchers, they would probably have unknowingly infected other inhabitants''

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/scientists-say-mass-tests-in-italian-town-have-halted-covid-19
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 19, 2020, 12:28:49 PM
Sounds logical - more testing on a much wider scale shows where the spread is and identifies who has it, regardless of symptoms.

We simply have to increase testing..

As for the advice to do supermarket shopping online, that’s nigh on f**king impossible now.  I’m tech savvy but it took ages to set up an account with Morrison’s (where we shop) and despite no delivery slots for weeks which is understandable, I can’t even register a payment method.!

How the hell are less tech savvy older people, who have to self isolate, going to follow the advice if the system can’t cope with the demand.

Perhaps the government should arrange for food parcels etc.?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 19, 2020, 12:38:13 PM
Sounds logical - more testing on a much wider scale shows where the spread is and identifies who has it, regardless of symptoms.

We simply have to increase testing..

As for the advice to do supermarket shopping online, that’s nigh on f**king impossible now.  I’m tech savvy but it took ages to set up an account with Morrison’s (where we shop) and despite no delivery slots for weeks which is understandable, I can’t even register a payment method.!

How the hell are less tech savvy older people, who have to self isolate, going to follow the advice if the system can’t cope with the demand.

Perhaps the government should arrange for food parcels etc.?

Apparently the antichrist, sorry Dominic Cummings, has been trying to organise things with businesses like Uber and Deliveroo to set up a system of emergency deliveries. It sounds like it's a very big undertaking though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 19, 2020, 12:48:20 PM
Apparently the government aren't ruling out locking down London at the weekend.

It feels like we are on the run in to real disruption now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 19, 2020, 01:06:13 PM
But at 12.10 today on the bbc ticker the government has said “zero prospect” of restrictions in and out of London..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 19, 2020, 01:30:16 PM
Schools closed down for an indefinite period from Friday. Got to do it really. Our total number of deaths is exactly tracking where Italy was two weeks ago.

Their rate of increase in deaths is just starting to slow down after 9 days of lock down. Hopefully ours will follow, but it's going to be bloody hard work.

Italy have today recorded their largest death rate....

Agreed. Bu the rate at which the trend is increasing day by day has been slowing over the past week. That's the first indication of getting on top of it.

2 weeks ago, their number of new deaths per day was doubling every 2 days. This past week, the trend has been doubling about every 6-7 days.

The number of new deaths will keep on increasing for another week or two. But the key thing is, how much it is increasing day on day. If it starts to stabilise at the same number of new deaths per day, it means that their measures have got the spread under control. For now, anyway, whilever the lockdown continues.

On this topic, there is some dreadful reporting by the BBC. Leading headline talking about Italy's number of new dead "soaring again" but not a word about the real story - that they appear to be getting the rise under control.

The BBC is supposed to "inform, educate and entertain".

Reporting like that does none of those things. It misleads by sensationalising. 

And they are at it again.

Deaths in Spain "soaring" according to BBC.

Ignoring the fact that last week the number of deaths was doubling every 1.5 days (!) and this week it has been doubling about every four days.

This is utterly irresponsible journalism. There should be a huge effort to inform and educate people about exponential growth and how you get it under control.

The danger is that, when we go into lockdown next week and the death numbers keep on rising people might assume it's not working, and kick off.

The evidence from several countries is that lockdown DOES work. But the death number keep on rising. The first sign of it working is the rate of increase of deaths per day starts to fall (or the time taken to double the total number of deaths starts to increase).

You do NOT broadcast that as a failure, if you are going to act responsibly. That is the road to success.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 19, 2020, 01:35:13 PM
Lockdown of London IS coming. And I suspect I know the reason for the Govt denials.

Clearest sign it is coming? The Queen was supposed to be moving from Buckingham Palace to Windsor Castle next week, for the Easter break. She's just left this morning.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 19, 2020, 01:40:00 PM
I wouldn’t be surprised if there are more stringent measures for London soon.. just being the messenger..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 19, 2020, 01:58:02 PM
Yorkshire still feels to be a little behind the rest of the country at the moment, though there was a small surge of cases in the Sheffield area yesterday.

Donny was still in 4 confirmed cases yesterday. Which in reality means only 4 cases last week.

It might mean that when harder restrictions come in, they might be a little more effective here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 19, 2020, 02:07:16 PM
Interesting that Kensington and Chelsea has a confirmed infection rate more than 10 times higher than the rest of the country.

One theory is that a lot of them were skiing in Italy in Jan/Feb and picked it up.

The other one is that there are a lot of very selfish, very wealthy people paying for private tests and so more cases have been identified.

If it is the latter, it is a bloody disgrace. We have a shortage of testing capacity and ALL of it should be used to assist the most important cases. Not ease the worries of the rich.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 19, 2020, 02:24:41 PM
Barnier tests positive for CV.

Red passports for a few years yet?  :facepalm:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-eus-brexit-negotiator-michel-barnier-tests-positive-for-covid-19-11960128
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 19, 2020, 02:41:53 PM
Bank of England to cut interest rates to 0.1%

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-bank-of-england-cuts-base-rate-to-0-1-11960336
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: roversdude on March 19, 2020, 02:55:15 PM
Rumours flying round that Prince Phillip has shook a 7 - believe it when I see it officially
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: nightporter on March 19, 2020, 03:53:10 PM
My worries for London is repeat of the 2001 riots, only worse.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 19, 2020, 04:03:49 PM
Alot of fake news flying around on facebook. Someone on my timeline shared a post of an apparent cascade of military trucks travelling down a road  to put London on lockdown. Then someone pointed out the trucks were driving on the wrong side of the road! Not from the UK then, and a certianly nothing to do with covid-19.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bristol Red Rover on March 19, 2020, 04:05:14 PM
My worries for London is repeat of the 2001 riots, only worse.
If this is still going come a heat wave, there will be riots, thought the difference from previous occurances is Johnson will likely pile in with army intervention.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 19, 2020, 04:06:36 PM
Anyone see Donald Trump's press conference.........beyond satire.

TRUMP: "The medics have been working extremely hard. Harder than anyone else. Except me."

TRUMP: "Dr so-and-so here. He's worked with Ebola, great company"
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: roversdude on March 19, 2020, 04:08:37 PM
Alot of fake news flying around on facebook. Someone on my timeline shared a post of an apparent cascade of military trucks travelling down a road  to put London on lockdown. Then someone pointed out the trucks were driving on the wrong side of the road! Not from the UK then, and a certianly nothing to do with covid-19.

Saw a similar post making out it was on M25 - with a road sign for Worksop and non British vehicle
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 19, 2020, 04:21:07 PM
Diane Abbott has called for the BBC to stop filming Casualty and Holby City so the staff can help out with the Coronavirus outbreak....
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rtid88 on March 19, 2020, 04:25:21 PM
Yorkshire still feels to be a little behind the rest of the country at the moment, though there was a small surge of cases in the Sheffield area yesterday.

Donny was still in 4 confirmed cases yesterday. Which in reality means only 4 cases last week.

It might mean that when harder restrictions come in, they might be a little more effective here.
2 of the 4 quoted ones for Doncaster are not actually Doncaster residents either so in reality it's only 2...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: tyke1962 on March 19, 2020, 06:09:47 PM
Johnson seems to be in a highly optimistic frame of mind at this evening's update .

12 weeks and we will be on the way to beating this thing he says but failed to tell anyone on how that could possibly be and just carry on as you were .

Coming home from work and listening to Radio 4  several people who are tasked with actually finding a solution to this virus didn't share any optimism at all .

A vaccination is 18 months away minimum and even if that is accurate rolling out the vaccine for the entire population of the world isn't exactly a walk in the park , add 6 more months to that before we are all protected .

Keeping your foot on the virus is fine but lifting it off to open the country up for business so to speak will see it return quickly .

There's absolutely no evidence to say you can't be infected again .

The herd immunity strategy if succesful will still take the best part of 18 months to work .

All this I heard in an half hour drive home from work this evening .

Johnson is remarkably optimistic with absolutely no evidence what so ever to be so .

Worrying , to say the least
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: big fat yorkshire pudding on March 19, 2020, 06:13:05 PM
I found his optimism bizarre aswell, certainly will not push for more stringent social distancing despite him saying it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 19, 2020, 06:32:39 PM
There's bound to be strict lockdown coming very soon.

We are still following exactly the same numbers of deaths as Italy was two weeks ago. 10 days ago they had strict lockdown and they are getting a big decrease in the rate of increase of deaths. We HAVE to follow that now.

But as Tyke says, and as the Imperial College modelling shows, if you just release that lockdown after several weeks, it will take off again very quickly.


The Imperial modelling has suggested a sequence of lockdowns-release-lockdowns for months ahead, until a vaccine is ready.

This is going to need some very clever management, and to be fair, I think that's what Johnson was rambling on about. The key from the stuff I've been reading is massive testing so that we know who has had it, who has it and who hasn't had it. Then we can be smart about where and when we lock down and when and where we relax the lockdown temporarily.

But yes, his optimism is really not the right face to be showing at the moment. We need a blood, sweat, toil and tears Churchill message. This is going to be REALLY hard work and for a long time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 19, 2020, 06:34:53 PM
It’s all about the testing.. I don’t know why this hasn’t been escalate before...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 19, 2020, 06:42:39 PM
Alot of fake news flying around on facebook. Someone on my timeline shared a post of an apparent cascade of military trucks travelling down a road  to put London on lockdown. Then someone pointed out the trucks were driving on the wrong side of the road! Not from the UK then, and a certianly nothing to do with covid-19.

There are convoys of military trucks driving up and down roads in the UK all the time - where I live you worry when you don't see military convoys. Although I was a bit concerned the other week when I saw a tank transporter convoy going past my house and thought you must be lost. You are going to struggle to turn that lot round if you go down there...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 19, 2020, 06:47:42 PM
Sorry Billy no we are not, we are running at a slightly higher mortality rate than Italy was at the same stage.

Italy of course has twice the number of ICU beds, its very worrying.

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1239975778395115520
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: DonnyOsmond on March 19, 2020, 06:48:24 PM
Barnier tests positive for CV.

Red passports for a few years yet?  :facepalm:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-eus-brexit-negotiator-michel-barnier-tests-positive-for-covid-19-11960128

Surely only an idiot would want us to tank our economy more with Brexit at a time like this?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 19, 2020, 06:57:16 PM
Barnier tests positive for CV.

Red passports for a few years yet?  :facepalm:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-eus-brexit-negotiator-michel-barnier-tests-positive-for-covid-19-11960128

Surely only an idiot would want us to tank our economy more with Brexit at a time like this?

Have you noticed who is running our country at the moment:

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/18/boris-johnson-says-no-brexit-extension-despite-coronavirus-emergency-12420965/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bristol Red Rover on March 19, 2020, 07:17:27 PM
There's absolutely no evidence to say you can't be infected again .

There's not a lot of evidence about much to do with this virus as things stand, but flagging that point out is a tad hysterical (not saying you Tyke, but where you're getting it from). Adding "absolutely" to that is crazy.

Immunity to viruses and resistance to their mutations is normal. It would be very out of the ordinary for it not to be the case with this one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: idler on March 19, 2020, 07:59:42 PM
I was all ing to a friend in her 70s who is self isolating on the advice of her grandson who is a consultant. His exact words were over 60s need to self-isolate because if they go to hospital they will be the ones that miss out on ventilators because the ventilators that they have will be used on the younger fitter patients that have a better chance of surviving and also recover quicker.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 19, 2020, 08:24:23 PM
I realise everyone knows this by now, but it appears this virus is way more pronounced with age than even we first thought a few weeks ago. The morality rate for over 85s appears to be terrible, with 65-84 years olds its also bad, around 55 or younger it drops off the cliff into just being somewhere like a normal flu.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bristol Red Rover on March 19, 2020, 08:42:09 PM
I realise everyone knows this by now, but it appears this virus is way more pronounced with age than even we first thought a few weeks ago. The morality rate for over 85s appears to be terrible, with 65-84 years olds its also bad, around 55 or younger it drops off the cliff into just being somewhere like a normal flu.

Maybe, but between lack of testing and false positive test results we have little idea of the number of cases, so we can't know the mortality rate.

I don't think we're seeing a higher proportion of older people die than with flu?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: mushRTID on March 19, 2020, 08:46:09 PM
One of my mates is convinced he had it over Christmas and it was here before we thought.

Anyone else have these suspicions?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: tommy toes on March 19, 2020, 08:52:46 PM
Matt Hancock's on QT as usual stating the bleedin obvious in his statesman-like sincere way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: albie on March 19, 2020, 09:18:59 PM
The editor of the Lancet wrote an opinion piece in the Guardian;
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/18/coronavirus-uk-expert-advice-wrong

Worth looking at the Newsnight vid from March 13, with Graham Medley, on the herd immunity strategy.
In the absence of a vaccine, this beggars belief.

Having failed to find any bread on the empty store shelves, and heard the hopeless Johnson giving his optimistic "12 weeks" assessment, I have realised "herd stupidity" has become endemic,and is the new normal

Does anyone have faith in the ability of Johnson, Hancock, Gove and Raab?
Clearly the panic buyers are not on board with the message.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: tyke1962 on March 19, 2020, 09:30:11 PM
Whilst the government acted reasonably in protecting capital the other day which whilst needed is the tory way , rather less has been forthcoming on those who haven't any capital to lose .

The renters  equated to low pay  , ZHC's , those laid off unpaid by their companies and obviously the people who have the virus or those in their household who have it too , those who are down to one wage so their partners can look after their school children comes in to this category .

Whilst we aren't at the point of the causes of the French Revolution just yet , something before early next week would be rather a good idea because eating cake doesn't tend to turn out well in times such as these .

I'd give that money tree another shake chancellor if I was you and it better be enough to feed the family , pay the bills and keep a roof over the head whilst not able to work for the immediate future .






Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 19, 2020, 09:36:56 PM
Wilts.

Choosing to plot the graphs with a common datum of the date on which they hit five deaths entirely arbitrary. In fact, it's actually a relatively poor way of comparing. Because in the early stages, the deaths occur at relatively random times because there were so few. And I know that comes from Johns Hopkins Uni, but that doesn't change the argument. Even leading universities don't always make flawless calls.

If you shift our trend back 2 weeks it matches Italy astonishingly closely as the numbers get into the high 10s and more
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 19, 2020, 09:40:16 PM
Don't blame me, blame the economics editor of Sky News.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 19, 2020, 09:40:34 PM
By the way, the light blue lines on that graph are roughly the slopes of Italy's curve at various dates. It is clear that the rate of increase on a log scale is coming down quickly. Which is the aim.of the lockdown.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 19, 2020, 09:41:59 PM
Not blaming you mate. Or him. It's a fast moving issue.

What I'm saying is that, looking at the data, it's clear as day to me that we are currently pretty much exactly tracking the Italy numbers from 2 weeks back.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 19, 2020, 09:47:03 PM
Whilst the government acted reasonably in protecting capital the other day which whilst needed is the tory way , rather less has been forthcoming on those who haven't any capital to lose .

The renters  equated to low pay  , ZHC's , those laid off unpaid by their companies and obviously the people who have the virus or those in their household who have it too , those who are down to one wage so their partners can look after their school children comes in to this category .

Whilst we aren't at the point of the causes of the French Revolution just yet , something before early next week would be rather a good idea because eating cake doesn't tend to turn out well in times such as these .

I'd give that money tree another shake chancellor if I was you and it better be enough to feed the family , pay the bills and keep a roof over the head whilst not able to work for the immediate future .



We are the 6th largest economy in the world. We are (I believe) one of very few countries in Europe not to have raised the rate of Sick Pay or insititued a universal basic income for its citizens to cope during this crises. And what did the former Work and Pensions Secretary and his think-tank have to say about it:

'it will be a disincentive to work'

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-uk-update-universal-basic-income-iain-duncan-smith-a9411251.html

#voteTory
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 19, 2020, 09:48:45 PM
Not blaming you mate. Or him. It's a fast moving issue.

What I'm saying is that, looking at the data, it's clear as day to me that we are currently pretty much exactly tracking the Italy numbers from 2 weeks back.

The bad news is that was from one region - ours is already across the country. Wiltshire has just tripled (thats cases, just one death so far reported)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 19, 2020, 10:21:25 PM
Good point Wilts, but it's not a small part of Italy that was affected early on.

Lombardia, Veneto, Emilia-Romagna, Piemonte and Toscana have nearly half of Italy's population between them. They were all badly affected by the first week of March.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bristol Red Rover on March 19, 2020, 11:30:36 PM
...Wiltshire has just tripled (thats cases, just one death so far reported)
The number of cases is almost pure fiction but somehow being swallowed by people as having relevance. We have some sense of the spread from the deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Ldr on March 20, 2020, 06:51:59 AM
One of my mates is convinced he had it over Christmas and it was here before we thought.

Anyone else have these suspicions?

My father and son had remarkably similar symptoms pre xmas and in January
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Ldr on March 20, 2020, 06:55:50 AM
Wilts.

Choosing to plot the graphs with a common datum of the date on which they hit five deaths entirely arbitrary. In fact, it's actually a relatively poor way of comparing. Because in the early stages, the deaths occur at relatively random times because there were so few. And I know that comes from Johns Hopkins Uni, but that doesn't change the argument. Even leading universities don't always make flawless calls.

If you shift our trend back 2 weeks it matches Italy astonishingly closely as the numbers get into the high 10s and more

BST, now there are enough data points have you considered plotting using SPC?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ravenrover on March 20, 2020, 09:34:08 AM
So 2 weeks of isolation then what? I comeback to the real world and am still  in danger of catching it, or am I missing something?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: DN8ROVER on March 20, 2020, 11:22:16 AM
One of my mates is convinced he had it over Christmas and it was here before we thought.

Anyone else have these suspicions?

My father and son had remarkably similar symptoms pre xmas and in January

Same with me, it was 2 weeks before Christmas and it lasted around a week. I had to request emergency holidays from work.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: auckleyflyer on March 20, 2020, 11:37:54 AM
I had a week off work Dec not done that since 1989!! The Mrs was convinced she was drowning and had pneumonia.
Were sure we've had it as the kids all got it now and it's not hit us
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 20, 2020, 11:46:07 AM
Remember there's dozens of other flus and covid's (edit - coronas) you could of had. Sorry to be a debbie downer, but from the DNA sequencing they are suggesting it jumped to humans very later November/Early December - for you to start showing symptom in mid december it means it had to transfer to you from China almost instantly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Yargo on March 20, 2020, 12:16:27 PM
Ooh look when this article is dated, those fecking Anti EU'ers with their reckless cutting of standards
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21350013 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21350013)
RACIST
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 20, 2020, 03:03:22 PM
The SAGE committee in the UK are now estimating the overal mortality rate to be 0.5%-1%. This is much better news, even minor reductions in the projected severe cases can make a big difference. I can find hardly any Western country reporting deaths of people under 50, other than the odd case.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 20, 2020, 03:17:48 PM
That would be excellent news CiM. Fingers crossed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: albie on March 20, 2020, 03:42:53 PM
Country by country animated tracker from the FT;
https://twitter.com/sdbernard/status/1240742053979598854

Shows the progression towards the peak, with a note of the measures taken.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jackthelad on March 20, 2020, 04:10:43 PM
So apparently they have been discussing potential wages for employees if we don't work.... be interesting to see what gets said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 20, 2020, 04:28:56 PM
Country by country animated tracker from the FT;
https://twitter.com/sdbernard/status/1240742053979598854

Shows the progression towards the peak, with a note of the measures taken.

Fascinating graphic, but I'm not sure I see the point any more of looking at confirm case statistics. We know that the rate of testing is wildly different in different countries, as is the targetting of testing. It seems to me to make far more sense to look at number of C-19 related deaths, which is relatively solid data.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jackthelad on March 20, 2020, 05:29:01 PM
fantastic
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: NickDRFC on March 20, 2020, 05:32:48 PM
Quite a relief fund announced tonight, and for me a much firmer stance with social venues. Some unanswered questions but I think it’s a pretty strong response.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 20, 2020, 05:37:46 PM
While the BBC continues to report "uncontrolled" "numbers soar" and "sharp rise" in italy, meaningless hyperbolic statements, if you look at the rate of increase of deaths it is actually slowing going down.

In the last 5 days it was an average 17.2% daily increase in deaths.
The 5 days before that it was 23.8%
The 5 days before that, 34.2%
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 20, 2020, 06:07:35 PM
While the BBC continues to report "uncontrolled" "numbers soar" and "sharp rise" in italy, meaningless hyperbolic statements, if you look at the rate of increase of deaths it is actually slowing going down.

In the last 5 days it was an average 17.2% daily increase in deaths.
The 5 days before that it was 23.8%
The 5 days before that, 34.2%

Precisely what I've been saying all week. That graph shows it.

We NEED to show where the hope is. And it IS there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: DonnyOsmond on March 20, 2020, 06:21:16 PM
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-nurse-magic-money-tree-bbcqt-question-time-pay-rise-eight-years-election-latest-a7770576.html%3famp
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 20, 2020, 06:26:37 PM
So it seems that people who’s employer would otherwise have to temporarily lay them off, will get 80% wages from the government, via their employer getting a government grant, up to £2500 a month.?

Some of you on here are employers, yes? This is a big help.?

What I haven’t yet seen, is the step up from “strongly advising” the vulnerable groups to implement social distancing, to actual self isolation.?  That was supposed to be “in a few days” when the PM announced this on Monday.?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 20, 2020, 06:52:30 PM
Seems to be good news for employees but what about the self-employed? They are hardly likely to self-isolate for £90 a week are they? Sunak needs to go further and quicker.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nudga on March 20, 2020, 06:58:03 PM
Seems to be good news for employees but what about the self-employed? They are hardly likely to self-isolate for £90 a week are they? Sunak needs to go further and quicker.

I'll be working nights at either morrisons or tesco next week whilst trying to save my business during the day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 20, 2020, 07:00:10 PM
So it seems that people who’s employer would otherwise have to temporarily lay them off, will get 80% wages from the government, via their employer getting a government grant, up to £2500 a month.?

Some of you on here are employers, yes? This is a big help.?

What I haven’t yet seen, is the step up from “strongly advising” the vulnerable groups to implement social distancing, to actual self isolation.?  That was supposed to be “in a few days” when the PM announced this on Monday.?

Massive help for my company. It means we'll be viable even if this lasts for a year.

I agree about the self-employed though. They have to be helped to a similar extent.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: albie on March 20, 2020, 08:24:18 PM
BST,

The link I gave also links through to the deaths data on the FT site.
If you follow through you see both the death rate comparator and the case trajectory.

Here is the graphic from Twitter;
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1241091873621643266/photo/1

Big disparity in Germany between the death figures and the known infections AT THE MOMENT.
It will be interesting how this plays out. Germany has been testing like crazy, and is well provisioned with health care capacity compared to the UK.

New release of info from the UK Government today;
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615391/coronavirus-uk-social-distancing-science-isolation-covid/

Data absent on the testing regime!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rich1471 on March 20, 2020, 08:37:45 PM
So it seems that people who’s employer would otherwise have to temporarily lay them off, will get 80% wages from the government, via their employer getting a government grant, up to £2500 a month.?

Some of you on here are employers, yes? This is a big help.?

What I haven’t yet seen, is the step up from “strongly advising” the vulnerable groups to implement social distancing, to actual self isolation.?  That was supposed to be “in a few days” when the PM announced this on Monday.?
this is a massive help to people i work for a company and today had to tell people they would get £30 a day for 5 days maximum pay , it was one of the worst things i have ever had to do , people i have know for years 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BigH on March 20, 2020, 08:38:59 PM
Teenage daughter rescued from Africa today. So grateful.

Tested as she left Rwanda (and at various travel points along the way).

Not tested as she arrived at Gatwick.

Unbelievable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: drfchound on March 20, 2020, 08:54:47 PM
Teenage daughter rescued from Africa today. So grateful.

Tested as she left Rwanda (and at various travel points along the way).

Not tested as she arrived at Gatwick.

Unbelievable.







Just curious BigH, but was she not tested at Gatwick because she had been tested negative elsewhere and that info had been passed on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BigH on March 20, 2020, 09:00:17 PM
Hound, sorry should have explained. Simple temperature testing.

Africa, for all its faults, has some idea and experience on how to try and manage these kind of situations.

We, on the other hand, seem to be caught like rabbits in the headlights.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 20, 2020, 10:02:00 PM
BST,

The link I gave also links through to the deaths data on the FT site.
If you follow through you see both the death rate comparator and the case trajectory.

Here is the graphic from Twitter;
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1241091873621643266/photo/1

Big disparity in Germany between the death figures and the known infections AT THE MOMENT.
It will be interesting how this plays out. Germany has been testing like crazy, and is well provisioned with health care capacity compared to the UK.

New release of info from the UK Government today;
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615391/coronavirus-uk-social-distancing-science-isolation-covid/

Data absent on the testing regime!

Albie.
Yes I've seen several graphs where they have shifted the country data on the time axis to the point where they all start from a common date at a very low number of deaths.

I explained last night why that approach is badly flawed if you use it to compare trends when the deaths are in the hundreds and thousands.

Look at the graph that I posted earlier. It is clear that we, France, Spain and Italy have all been on broadly the same trend. And that implementing hard lockdown dies appear to bend the trend significantly downwards, on a log scale, which is a start.


Germany, clearly is a massive outlier on deaths/confirmed cases. I posted someone's thoughts on that earlier in the week. They said data showed that the early infections in Germany were overwhelmingly in the young. But that, when it hit the older population, the deaths would mount.

That has happened this week. Their deaths have started and are broadly following the same trend as the rest of Europe.

We truly are all in it together. All following the same track, just separated by a few days. We need to be sharing best ideas and learning from each other, fast.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: tyke1962 on March 20, 2020, 11:50:15 PM
Whilst I welcome the chancellors measures rolled out today and I am fully aware that these measures are not costed and they are coming from money the government simply doesn't have .

They have little choice and it had to be done , there's nobody going to argue that they aren't acting in the best interests of everyone .

My concern is that when this is all over whenever that maybe who picks up the tab for these measures ? .

If it's everyone then that's totally fine and I mean everyone who has the ability to pay .

That's generally not how things have worked out under previous Tory governments .

The don't look at me conversations had better take place this time amongst those who have that ability to pay .

If the Tory Government have suddenly discovered crisis Socialism then you'd better follow that right through and not leave the less well off to the switch to free market capitalism to pay the bill .

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 21, 2020, 12:01:26 AM
They are also going to need to run a command economy for the next 2 years at least. Tell industries what to make, where to deliver it to.

Churchill was a rabid anti-socialist, but it's amazing how even someone as wedded to free markets as him was happy to ditch them when the chips were down.

My gut feeling is that there will not be a reversion back to the unfettered free markets after this. They were misfiring badly already. And there is no intellectual drive from the Right as to how to invigorate them.

The creative new ideas are all coming from the Left. Just like they were in WWII, which pressaged 35 years of state intervention in the economy which was unheard of then, and would be astonish to anyone now under 50 years old. It just needs politicians on the Left  who can do the inconvenient thing of winning elections to implement those ideas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: tyke1962 on March 21, 2020, 12:59:44 AM
They are also going to need to run a command economy for the next 2 years at least. Tell industries what to make, where to deliver it to.

Churchill was a rabid anti-socialist, but it's amazing how even someone as wedded to free markets as him was happy to ditch them when the chips were down.

My gut feeling is that there will not be a reversion back to the unfettered free markets after this. They were misfiring badly already. And there is no intellectual drive from the Right as to how to invigorate them.

The creative new ideas are all coming from the Left. Just like they were in WWII, which pressaged 35 years of state intervention in the economy which was unheard of then, and would be astonish to anyone now under 50 years old. It just needs politicians on the Left  who can do the inconvenient thing of winning elections to implement those ideas.

Proper game changer is this for a Tory government , unprecedented apart from WW2 which even then was a coalition .

The fact is there's nothing left to cut back on given their own policies of the last 10 years , they completely own the decade .

The only reason the Tory Party exists at all is to protect wealth at least that's my understanding and I'm an avid reader of political history 

This poses the current Tory government an unprecedented conundrum , there's nothing to extract at the lower end of society because they've signed that off themselves for the last 10 years .

Now they are quite rightly having to borrow money even Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling would have shyte themselves at with only the people who they represent historically having the means to pay it back .

You could say falling on their own sword .

Their donors and voters historically rely on them keeping their wealth plus further wealth .

It's a remarkable chain of events .

Extremely sad and tragic that this virus had to come about and I wish whole heartedly it wasn't this way .



Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 21, 2020, 01:42:16 AM
This gives the tories a convenient out, Windrush, the Russian report and anything else will be put out with the garbage as Covid 19 takes away attention.

The budget has already been put off till October in Aus because it would be 'silly' to deal with the fact that economy has tanked and only the adults are allowed to see the numbers.

There will be something similar on the UK I would imagine with the help of a compliant media ready to hail a triumphant johnson.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 21, 2020, 08:10:21 AM
Here's a thought.

With the government supporting wages whilst work and productivity is likely to be lower. Effectively printing money, is there a risk of inflation?

Particularly in food.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 21, 2020, 08:17:34 AM
Good point RD - I was just about to post this link:

'Just as there are no atheists on a sinking ship, there are no free-marketers in a pandemic'

https://twitter.com/Freedland/status/1241077451956146176
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 21, 2020, 09:03:44 AM
I'm not altogether sure about the question of inflation.

We also see the world is awash in crude oil at the moment and the price of a barrel has been collapsing. This should produce a deflationary effect.

It's like trying to predict the weather. Next year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ravenrover on March 21, 2020, 09:13:51 AM
Hound, sorry should have explained. Simple temperature testing.

Africa, for all its faults, has some idea and experience on how to try and manage these kind of situations.

We, on the other hand, seem to be caught like rabbits in the headlights.
I assume she will be going into self isolation
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 21, 2020, 09:31:41 AM
Here's a thought.

With the government supporting wages whilst work and productivity is likely to be lower. Effectively printing money, is there a risk of inflation?

Particularly in food.

There is a simple solution to that if it does happen.

Rationing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 21, 2020, 09:43:04 AM
Who would have thought we’d have a Socialist Tory Government?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Axholme Lion on March 21, 2020, 10:09:47 AM
Here's a thought.

With the government supporting wages whilst work and productivity is likely to be lower. Effectively printing money, is there a risk of inflation?

Particularly in food.

There is a simple solution to that if it does happen.

Rationing.

Food should be rationed as vast swathes of the general public have proved they cannot act like rational adults by raping the supermarkets with no thought for anyone other than themselves. FFS just buy what you need and everyone will get a fair share. Are these people complete morons? Panic buying everything in sight because they might run out is a self fulfilling prophecy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 21, 2020, 10:34:15 AM
Here's a thought.

With the government supporting wages whilst work and productivity is likely to be lower. Effectively printing money, is there a risk of inflation?

Particularly in food.

There is a simple solution to that if it does happen.

Rationing.

I heard Kenneth Rogoff interviewed this morning.

He's the Harvard economist whose work was quoted by many if the politicians who wanted to justify Austerity 10 years ago. He's made a career out of saying "don't let debt get too high".

He said in this interview (about the US economy) "I would have no concerns now with Govt debt going up a trillion dollars...heck FIVE trillion dollars in the blink of an eye. And if we get inflation after this, frankly, so what?"

It's like hearing Ian Paisley saying mass in the Vatican.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 21, 2020, 10:39:07 AM
Next step in "things you never thought you'd see a Tory Govt do".

Airlines to be effectively nationalised next week.


As someone has said on Twitter, just like everyone finds God on a sinking ship, we are all socialists in an emergency.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: drfchound on March 21, 2020, 10:44:50 AM
Here's a thought.

With the government supporting wages whilst work and productivity is likely to be lower. Effectively printing money, is there a risk of inflation?

Particularly in food.

There is a simple solution to that if it does happen.

Rationing.

Food should be rationed as vast swathes of the general public have proved they cannot act like rational adults by raping the supermarkets with no thought for anyone other than themselves. FFS just buy what you need and everyone will get a fair share. Are these people complete morons? Panic buying everything in sight because they might run out is a self fulfilling prophecy.







Just been to the post office.
A young mother in there was telling the post office lady that her mother has over 200 toilet rolls stashed away.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 21, 2020, 10:52:37 AM
Toilet rolls are worth more an ounce than gold these days
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Axholme Lion on March 21, 2020, 11:15:07 AM
Here's a thought.

With the government supporting wages whilst work and productivity is likely to be lower. Effectively printing money, is there a risk of inflation?

Particularly in food.

There is a simple solution to that if it does happen.

Rationing.

Food should be rationed as vast swathes of the general public have proved they cannot act like rational adults by raping the supermarkets with no thought for anyone other than themselves. FFS just buy what you need and everyone will get a fair share. Are these people complete morons? Panic buying everything in sight because they might run out is a self fulfilling prophecy.







Just been to the post office.
A young mother in there was telling the post office lady that her mother has over 200 toilet rolls stashed away.

Well I hope she gets the shits and uses them all up. Hoarding essentials should be a criminal offence. People like that are creating a problem that otherwise would not exist and ruining the lives of others who are either old, sick or too busy going to work to get to the shops at 6am.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 21, 2020, 11:19:27 AM
Right. Hand up.

I'm feeling unreasonably guilty on this one.

We always buy bulk packs at CostCo every few months. It's miles cheaper. I bought one a few weeks ago before the panic buying starts. So we've got about 80 rolls under the stairs.

I'm sure the people on here who think I'm full of shit will be relieved that I'm well covered in that department.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: roversdude on March 21, 2020, 11:23:29 AM
Did anyone notice the day that they gave over the first hour in supermarkets to the oldies - one old lady walking out with 2x24 packs of toilet rolls justifying it by she has neighbours, in the background an old guy with a trolley full of them.
We need to make sure our NHS staff are looked after and can get provisions
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sprotyrover on March 21, 2020, 11:40:39 AM
I see thiis morning that the Mayor of one of those badly infected towns is saying the death rate is probably 4 x higher than reported as he fears a lot of old folks have merely died in their homes and have yet to be found.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Axholme Lion on March 21, 2020, 11:41:08 AM
Right. Hand up.

I'm feeling unreasonably guilty on this one.

We always buy bulk packs at CostCo every few months. It's miles cheaper. I bought one a few weeks ago before the panic buying starts. So we've got about 80 rolls under the stairs.

I'm sure the people on here who think I'm full of shit will be relieved that I'm well covered in that department.

You shouldn't feel guilty for continuing with your normal buying habits. It's the people who have suddenly gone mad that are at fault.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BigH on March 21, 2020, 11:45:16 AM
Just wondering when we can expect to see supermarkets replanning their aisles.

Part of the current problem is that they're planned for JIT deliveries and 'little and often' buying behaviour. Also, no need for 2000+ stock items when it's bread and milk that people want.

So, hopefully, we'll soon see 3-4 aisles of staples and a whole chiller aisle of milk as the porcini mushrooms, sun-dried tomatoes and poncey continental cheeses get binned off.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BigH on March 21, 2020, 11:54:47 AM
Hound, sorry should have explained. Simple temperature testing.

Africa, for all its faults, has some idea and experience on how to try and manage these kind of situations.

We, on the other hand, seem to be caught like rabbits in the headlights.
I assume she will be going into self isolation
Staying, confined to home for at least 14 days (without visitors) as a precaution; yes.

However, not currently displaying any symptoms so not self-isolating.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 21, 2020, 12:01:07 PM
Right. Hand up.

I'm feeling unreasonably guilty on this one.

We always buy bulk packs at CostCo every few months. It's miles cheaper. I bought one a few weeks ago before the panic buying starts. So we've got about 80 rolls under the stairs.

I'm sure the people on here who think I'm full of shit will be relieved that I'm well covered in that department.

It’s probably just as cheap these days to buy a shed load of old shirts from eBay if your rival football club, at least you can wash them and re use them.!

PS - I am joking.

However, in all seriousness, it wouldn’t be impossible to cut up an old sheet for bog paper, and wash and re use, like we used to do with terry nappies until a generation or so ago..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 21, 2020, 12:05:19 PM
Next step in "things you never thought you'd see a Tory Govt do".

Airlines to be effectively nationalised next week.


As someone has said on Twitter, just like everyone finds God on a sinking ship, we are all socialists in an emergency.

The Italians are renationalising Alitalia, as they now see it as a vital national asset. They have come to the realisation that there are circumstances when they may need to get a lot of nationals home at short notice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 21, 2020, 12:28:43 PM
Footage of Youths Looting and fighting at London supermarkets.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-youths-looting-fighting-supermarkets-london-paris

It's a Zero hedge article, so you know but the footage looks real.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ravenrover on March 21, 2020, 12:58:46 PM
Hound, sorry should have explained. Simple temperature testing.

Africa, for all its faults, has some idea and experience on how to try and manage these kind of situations.

We, on the other hand, seem to be caught like rabbits in the headlights.
I assume she will be going into self isolation
Staying, confined to home for at least 14 days (without visitors) as a precaution; yes.

However, not currently displaying any symptoms so not self-isolating.
so in that scenario are you and everyone else in your household staying in for 14 days?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 21, 2020, 01:22:08 PM
Footage of Youths Looting and fighting at London supermarkets.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-youths-looting-fighting-supermarkets-london-paris

It's a Zero hedge article, so you know but the footage looks real.

RD.
Have a look at who wrote that piece and ask if you really want to be circulating articles by a Kitson like Paul Joseph Watson.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 21, 2020, 01:52:45 PM
Footage of Youths Looting and fighting at London supermarkets.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-youths-looting-fighting-supermarkets-london-paris

It's a Zero hedge article, so you know but the footage looks real.

RD.
Have a look at who wrote that piece and ask if you really want to be circulating articles by a Kitson like Paul Joseph Watson.

The name means nothing to me. The lady on the check out in our local Aldi said there was some trouble in the store last Thursday, pushing and shoving in the aisles mainly. Someone threw a tin of beans at the manager, they have a security guard on the door now.

I caught a gag on the radio that made me smile. At least with the Coronavirus emergency Boris Johnson has got what he always wanted. His own nightly TV Show.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 21, 2020, 02:06:48 PM
He's a t**t. Very intelligent lad from Sheffield who made his name peddling alt right conspiracy shite on Breitbart and the utterly batshit InfoWars alongside that (literally) insane alt-right megastar Alex Jones.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Joseph_Watson

Fits in perfectly with the idea that Zero Hedge is Kremlin psy-ops.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 21, 2020, 03:00:25 PM
The Guardian is saying the London hospitals are already overstrected this week. Reports of operating theatres being converted to ICU units, many people already on ventilators.

This thing is going to create carnage in the National Health Service. It will overwhelm any health service but it is really going to expose the lack of investment in the NHS in recent decades.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: bpoolrover on March 21, 2020, 03:08:54 PM
While your probably right I still don’t think you could be prepared for something like this no matter what the investment
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 21, 2020, 03:40:13 PM
In mine and your circles, bpool, this is something absolutely new and unprecedented. In the circles of epidemiologists, virologists and health officials of all descriptions, this is not something unexpected or something that couldn't have been planned for and invested in.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 21, 2020, 03:43:43 PM
Latest news is the NHS is effectively taking over all independent hospitals for the duration. It will increase capacity by an extra 8,000 beds and 1,200 more ventilators.

That's a very good move.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: bpoolrover on March 21, 2020, 03:47:11 PM
In mine and your circles, bpool, this is something absolutely new and unprecedented. In the circles of epidemiologists, virologists and health officials of all descriptions, this is not something unexpected or something that couldn't have been planned for and invested in.
it could have been planned better for I agree just not sure to this level
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 21, 2020, 04:06:03 PM
In mine and your circles, bpool, this is something absolutely new and unprecedented. In the circles of epidemiologists, virologists and health officials of all descriptions, this is not something unexpected or something that couldn't have been planned for and invested in.

It is almost beyond belief that the lack of ventilators was flagged up by PHE in 2016 as the No1 vulnerability in a pandemic, and it then took us 7-8 weeks after China locked down to start addressing this.

Many, many people are going to die unnecessarily because of that staggering incompetent complacency.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: DonnyOsmond on March 21, 2020, 04:42:15 PM
Latest news is the NHS is effectively taking over all independent hospitals for the duration. It will increase capacity by an extra 8,000 beds and 1,200 more ventilators.

That's a very good move.

ARE YOU LABOUR IN DISGUISE?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 21, 2020, 04:58:24 PM
Latest news is the NHS is effectively taking over all independent hospitals for the duration. It will increase capacity by an extra 8,000 beds and 1,200 more ventilators.

That's a very good move.

ARE YOU LABOUR IN DISGUISE?

I'm not in disguise, I have been known to vote Labour, not Corbyn but I did vote for Blair and I've never voted Tory.

And I do think the NHS is the most efficient and effective way of delivering healthcare. I would be quite happy if all those private hospitals were amalgamated into the NHS when all this finally begins to subside.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: DonnyOsmond on March 21, 2020, 05:02:41 PM
Latest news is the NHS is effectively taking over all independent hospitals for the duration. It will increase capacity by an extra 8,000 beds and 1,200 more ventilators.

That's a very good move.

ARE YOU LABOUR IN DISGUISE?

I'm not in disguise, I have been known to vote Labour, not Corbyn but I did vote for Blair and I've never voted Tory.

And I do think the NHS is the most efficient and effective way of delivering healthcare. I would be quite happy if all those private hospitals were amalgamated into the NHS when all this finally begins to subside.

Not you personally I mean the Tories currently.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 21, 2020, 05:30:34 PM
While your probably right I still don’t think you could be prepared for something like this no matter what the investment

That is the job of government - to be prepared to protect the population in case of an emergency.

In 2016 they actually did a 3 day exercise to see what would happen if there was a pandemic outbreak in the UK. It showed there were not enough ventilators or mortuary places - and what was the government's response to this - more austerity.

You fail to plan, you plan to fail

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/health/2020/03/government-documents-show-no-planning-ventilators-event-pandemic
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 21, 2020, 05:37:27 PM
Latest news is the NHS is effectively taking over all independent hospitals for the duration. It will increase capacity by an extra 8,000 beds and 1,200 more ventilators.

That's a very good move.

ARE YOU LABOUR IN DISGUISE?

I'm not in disguise, I have been known to vote Labour, not Corbyn but I did vote for Blair and I've never voted Tory.

And I do think the NHS is the most efficient and effective way of delivering healthcare. I would be quite happy if all those private hospitals were amalgamated into the NHS when all this finally begins to subside.

Not you personally I mean the Tories currently.

Oh right. I see what you mean.

I don't think they have any option, if it were left to the market the death toll would be far greater.  I expect this thing will hit the United States harder than the UK, purely because of the nature of their healthcare system.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 21, 2020, 05:41:56 PM
The USA would be stupid not to take hospitals under central control for the duration.

Otherwise, they are going to learn a very, very hard lesson about the vulnerability of leaving hospital managers answerable only to shareholders.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ravenrover on March 21, 2020, 05:55:06 PM
Latest news is the NHS is effectively taking over all independent hospitals for the duration. It will increase capacity by an extra 8,000 beds and 1,200 more ventilators.

That's a very good move.
Are the NHS having to pay the private sector for the use pf their facilities and medical staff?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 21, 2020, 06:11:39 PM
Latest news is the NHS is effectively taking over all independent hospitals for the duration. It will increase capacity by an extra 8,000 beds and 1,200 more ventilators.

That's a very good move.
Are the NHS having to pay the private sector for the use pf their facilities and medical staff?

Yes. At cost, though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 21, 2020, 07:55:46 PM
That will be mitigated somewhat by not having to fund non critical operations and treatments perhaps.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BigH on March 21, 2020, 08:04:35 PM
Hound, sorry should have explained. Simple temperature testing.

Africa, for all its faults, has some idea and experience on how to try and manage these kind of situations.

We, on the other hand, seem to be caught like rabbits in the headlights.
I assume she will be going into self isolation
Staying, confined to home for at least 14 days (without visitors) as a precaution; yes.

However, not currently displaying any symptoms so not self-isolating.
so in that scenario are you and everyone else in your household staying in for 14 days?
No, because no one in our household is displaying any symptoms. If any of us started to then it would, of course, be an immediate 14-day lock down.

The precaution is because my daughter was on a 12 hr flight and wasn't in any way, shape or form tested when she re-entered the UK.

Raven, we seem to have strayed from my earlier point.

Testing.

The authorities on pandemics have stressed the importance of this at every end and turn. Yet, as a country we are playing catch up and at major entry points into our country it's still not happening.

When, in years to come, the inevitable public enquiry is held into this pandemic's effects in the UK, expect this to be one of the key areas of scrutiny. In my view the lack of testing in this country will be seen to be an error of Chernobyl proportions.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 21, 2020, 08:54:50 PM
If you are at all concerned about how the current mortality rate matches the predicted rate and what that means for the days/weeks to come I advise you not to view this tweet:

https://twitter.com/GarethHawkinsLG/status/1241439135186944007
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 21, 2020, 09:30:38 PM
That is a highly simplistic model. I keep saying, anyone who is doing ANY modelling based on confirmed cases is wasting their time, because it is meaningless data.

Plus, he is assuming 3% of the confirmed cases die each day. No allowance for the time to mortality.

And he's choosing an arbitrary mortality rate of 3%.

What he is doing, is finding values within that (incorrect) causal model that give him outputs that reasonably match data over a limited time set.

Then he is extrapolating that outside the time set.

He'd get very low marks in any decent science/engineering undergraduate course for that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 21, 2020, 09:39:45 PM
Given the uncertainty in so many if the input parameters (actual infection numbers, actual mortality rate, time from infection to death) it's next to impossible for an amateur to develop a causally-based predictive model.

Make far more sense to look at the trends of countries who have gone ahead of us.

Here, we went through 100 deaths 3 days ago. So this suggests we will hit 1000 total deaths by the middle of next week and 5000 in a fortnight.

Unless our lockdown is as successful as China's...

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 21, 2020, 09:47:23 PM
But then.

Here's that graph on a log axis. I've just shown that to a colleague. His reaction matched mine. The Chinese data looks too good to be true. It is so smooth. Utterly unlike the European data, where you get random spikes and troughs in the deaths each day.


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 22, 2020, 01:00:08 AM
This should be required reading for everyone in the world

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

It's by an engineer rather than an epidemiologist, but he understands the concepts.

It starts of in the most terrifying apocalyptic terms. Which we need to hear. Because we have just days and weeks to stop this becoming a catastrophe.

But it ends with rays of hope.

We CAN survive this. We CAN do so without losing too many loved ones or suffering unacceptable economic damage. But we need to act.  Now. And be a lot smarter in our response.

Read it. It is vitally important that we all take this on board.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: turnbull for england on March 22, 2020, 10:14:09 AM
Got to be said I've changed plans after reading this. Was going fo lr decent bike ride, on my own won't see a soul so no issues there, but always risk of crashing  and however small it's a risk I shouldn't take at minute
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 22, 2020, 11:09:16 AM
This is what a proper epidemiology model looks like by the way.

http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 22, 2020, 11:38:17 AM
Looking at the charts and seeing how it's really now begun to detonate in Italy, I now think the wisest thing to do would be to implement a full Wuhan style lockdown today.

We very urgently need to do something to slow the numbers going into hospitals.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 22, 2020, 12:14:18 PM
RD.
Of course. It's a no-brainer.

We are at the tipping point NOW.

We CAN get this under control faster than Italy. But we have to crack down NOW!

Instead, we have zero f**king leadership. No-one enforcing social distancing. Just that clown of a PM waving his arms about, suggesting that we should take it seriously, then gurning gormlessly and saying he is going to visit his mum for Mother's Day.

And THIS is what it results in.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51994504
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 22, 2020, 12:23:10 PM
Reports that the East Coast seaside towns are seeing greater numbers than expected too.

This bit of sunny weather is encouraging people to treat it as a little holiday break. They need to clamp down now, it's obvious.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 22, 2020, 12:30:35 PM
It is f**king insane.

No exaggeration. This is going to result in thousands of extra deaths. This is going to push the NHS very close to breaking point in a couple of weeks time, when the infections picked up today turn into ICU cases.

We KNOW this from the examples of Italy and China. It is beyond belief that we are allowing this. Utterly bereft of f**king leadership.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dutch Uncle on March 22, 2020, 01:11:18 PM
This should be required reading for everyone in the world

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

It's by an engineer rather than an epidemiologist, but he understands the concepts.

It starts of in the most terrifying apocalyptic terms. Which we need to hear. Because we have just days and weeks to stop this becoming a catastrophe.

But it ends with rays of hope.

We CAN survive this. We CAN do so without losing too many loved ones or suffering unacceptable economic damage. But we need to act.  Now. And be a lot smarter in our response.

Read it. It is vitally important that we all take this on board.

Excellent article and approach

Chart 16 in the link is a superb use of presenting results of operational analysis for decision makers

Edit: And Epidemiologists and Economic analysts should be able to model and estimate figures to fill in the chart. As I said in another thread the important thing is to know costs and benefits relative of an action relative to others, rather than in exact/predictive terms. Then we need to be able to track progress and IMHO that all depends on whether we test enough.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rtid88 on March 22, 2020, 01:19:36 PM
Unfortunately no matter what leadership there is in this country it will never take away the amount of stupidity and selfishness that is inherent in this country now.
There is nothing that can be done to change the mindsets of the idiots that are continuing their days as if nothing is happening, or the ones that are going out panic buying!
Despite the continuous warnings of there being no need for panic buying I went to pick up a few bits from Tesco's in Balby this morning, being an NHS worker I went 1st thing as they opened an hour earlier for NHS staff and the car park was already full and a queue of at least 50/100 people outside...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 22, 2020, 01:54:44 PM
On the positive side, as of 11.30 this morning no fewer than 5,633 retired nurses have signed up to offer their services to the NHS. Everyone of them in a higher risk category.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rtid88 on March 22, 2020, 01:59:41 PM
https://www.yorkshireeveningpost.co.uk/news/crime/large-crowds-coughing-police-and-spitting-when-asked-move-back-during-serious-incident-yorkshire-2504820

When you have got this level of stupidity and selfishness what chance does this country stand?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: drfc1951 on March 22, 2020, 03:52:20 PM
Reports that the East Coast seaside towns are seeing greater numbers than expected too.

This bit of sunny weather is encouraging people to treat it as a little holiday break. They need to clamp down now, it's obvious.
Thats true loads of motorhomes coming into Brid , hardly anything in the supermarkets for locals.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 22, 2020, 05:34:57 PM
Might just be the first signs of positive news for us in the UK. The numbers of reported deaths have started falling below the trends that similar countries had at the same stage of the outbreak.

Four days ago, we are at around 150 deaths. Since then, we've had 184 reported deaths.

If you look at the four days after similar countries were at around 150 deaths, and see how many died over the next few days, you get:

Italy 259
France 245
Spain 256.

That is a major difference between us and those countries. It means that, at the moment (and hopefully, continuing) we are on a slower rate of growth in deaths than those countries were at the same stage. That wasn't the case just as recently as last Tues/Weds, when our deaths were growing at a rate as fast they had been doing at the same stage.

No guarantee that this is going to continue (and the sensible ones among us should be f**king livid at the idiots who have been out on day trips today) but it's a chink of positive light. At the moment, we have, briefly, started tracking China, rather than Italy. Fingers crossed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 22, 2020, 05:44:35 PM
Italy just reported their lowest daily increase in both cases (10%) and deaths (13.5%) since the virus took a hold there. Only one day, but part of a broader trend, and very promising.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 22, 2020, 05:48:31 PM
It is CiM.

It's confirming that Italy's growth rate of deaths is definitely slowing. They will still do well to get out of this first wave with fewer than 20,000 deaths, but, to be brutal, that is manageable.

I'm more optimistic than I've been since the start of this that the Western countries can get this first wave under control. The key then is preparedness for managing the release of the lockdown and re-imposition as the cases start to pick up. And for massive increase in capacity of ICUs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: scawsby steve on March 22, 2020, 05:50:32 PM
The ones out on day trips today are probably the same sort of people who've been raping the supermarkets without thought for the elderly and vulnerable who've been close to starvation this last week, with no access to bread, milk, nor anything else.

Selfish, moronic, idiotic tw*ts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 22, 2020, 06:17:24 PM
Look at this tweet. And the one below it.

https://mobile.twitter.com/tomrichell/status/1241748194825994241
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 22, 2020, 06:26:24 PM
Richmond park apparently should have been closed this morning but not been affective obviously if that photo is from today. Its a matter of what you show, Time Square has been empty for several days now, but several beaches in the US have been packed with people for spring break. Already confirmed cases of people getting the virsus and spreading it around their communities once they get back home.

The broader things I am reading from/about the US are all very very worrying. I think they are on the cusp of a major crisis far surpassing what happened in Italy/China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nudga on March 22, 2020, 06:31:17 PM
If you scroll down further then you'll see a busy Central Park.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 22, 2020, 06:39:29 PM
America is in for a nightmare time. They have been caught totally off guard. They didn't even have a Pandemic planning group in Washington because Trump dispensed with it two years ago.

And did you hear what he said a couple of weeks back?

"It's going to disappear. One day it's like a miracle, it will disappear."

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 22, 2020, 07:06:35 PM
I have been out on the bike today, lots of others out to but that's fairly normal on that route. Traffic seemed heavier than a normal Sunday mind.

2 country pubs open, 3 closed (although one with a sign saying they are serving take-aways). Mobile home lodge park seemed to have plenty of cars in it - as did the caravan site around a fishing lake - where the cafe was still open.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: albie on March 22, 2020, 07:13:16 PM
A bit more detail on the development of Government policy in The Canary;
https://www.thecanary.co/uk/2020/03/22/claim-that-pms-special-adviser-dominic-cummings-was-callous-about-coronavirus-deaths/

There will need to be a reckoning once this nightmare is over.
I mentioned some time ago about "culpable negligence"......it is looking like a strategy of leaving the weak and vulnerable to fail.

We should all be concerned that these people remain at the wheel.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 22, 2020, 07:25:02 PM
I didn't see tonight's press conference.

Apparently there was something about careers needing protective clothing, is this right?

I look after my Mum and she's likely to be in the category of vulnerable people required to lockdown for the next 12 weeks. I haven't been able to find anything online about this yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 22, 2020, 07:32:56 PM
I didn't see tonight's press conference.

Apparently there was something about careers needing protective clothing, is this right?

I look after my Mum and she's likely to be in the category of vulnerable people required to lockdown for the next 12 weeks. I haven't been able to find anything online about this yet.

Never heard that, but I’m not saying it was n’t mentioned though, 1.5m people will get letters telling them to isolate for 12 week
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: drfchound on March 22, 2020, 08:38:05 PM
I have been out on the bike today, lots of others out to but that's fairly normal on that route. Traffic seemed heavier than a normal Sunday mind.

2 country pubs open, 3 closed (although one with a sign saying they are serving take-aways). Mobile home lodge park seemed to have plenty of cars in it - as did the caravan site around a fishing lake - where the cafe was still open.






Traffic through Hatfield noticeably down today.
I had an email today from the Caravan Club saying that as of today, all their sites are closing down until the end of June initially.
Anyone on one of their sites has to pack up and go home straight away.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bentley Bullet on March 22, 2020, 08:54:48 PM
I'm a caravanner and got the same email. We had planned to go to Thirsk racecourse for our first outing of the season in a couple of weeks but it looks like it's going to be a bit of a non-eventful touring year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 22, 2020, 09:10:35 PM
I didn't see tonight's press conference.

Apparently there was something about careers needing protective clothing, is this right?

I look after my Mum and she's likely to be in the category of vulnerable people required to lockdown for the next 12 weeks. I haven't been able to find anything online about this yet.

Never heard that, but I’m not saying it was n’t mentioned though, 1.5m people will get letters telling them to isolate for 12 week

Aren’t those letters advising (again) rather than mandating.?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 22, 2020, 09:18:42 PM
I didn't see tonight's press conference.

Apparently there was something about careers needing protective clothing, is this right?

I look after my Mum and she's likely to be in the category of vulnerable people required to lockdown for the next 12 weeks. I haven't been able to find anything online about this yet.

Never heard that, but I’m not saying it was n’t mentioned though, 1.5m people will get letters telling them to isolate for 12 week

I think my Mam has got it wrong. I can't see the a need for protection unless there is an infection. Thought I'd better check, ta.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 22, 2020, 09:24:34 PM
I didn't see tonight's press conference.

Apparently there was something about careers needing protective clothing, is this right?

I look after my Mum and she's likely to be in the category of vulnerable people required to lockdown for the next 12 weeks. I haven't been able to find anything online about this yet.

Never heard that, but I’m not saying it was n’t mentioned though, 1.5m people will get letters telling them to isolate for 12 week

Aren’t those letters advising (again) rather than mandating.?

Well I suppose thats open to interpretation, which goes to my other point, this is not strong decisive leadership, as much as I hate Thatcher, she would have been on this by now!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Ldr on March 22, 2020, 09:30:02 PM
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/guidance-on-shielding-and-protecting-extremely-vulnerable-persons-from-covid-19/guidance-on-shielding-and-protecting-extremely-vulnerable-persons-from-covid-19
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 22, 2020, 09:38:24 PM
I didn't see tonight's press conference.

Apparently there was something about careers needing protective clothing, is this right?

I look after my Mum and she's likely to be in the category of vulnerable people required to lockdown for the next 12 weeks. I haven't been able to find anything online about this yet.

Never heard that, but I’m not saying it was n’t mentioned though, 1.5m people will get letters telling them to isolate for 12 week

Aren’t those letters advising (again) rather than mandating.?

Well I suppose thats open to interpretation, which goes to my other point, this is not strong decisive leadership, as much as I hate Thatcher, she would have been on this by now!

It is only advisory.  The only compulsory measures I am aware of so far in this country are the closure of pubs, restaurants, cinemas etc.

Everything else is advised or strongly advised, “should” etc.. but if we don’t follow the advice the PM is threatening tougher measures.

Comes across like a bit of an old fashioned parent to me.

If we need to have compulsory measures, albeit unpopular ones, just f**king get on with it and do it.!

Meanwhile plenty of folks will take the piss, ignoring the advice, panic buying etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 22, 2020, 09:50:16 PM
Updated death-trend graph.

Interesting...the trends appear to be diverging. Looks tentatively like we may have have bent the curve downwards earlier than other European countries which would be very, very good news if true. France looks to have broken out below the Italy trend too, but Spain is looking in trouble.

This does look like the tipping point. If we can keep that trend going like that (and if the Kitsons who went out on day trips today don;t undo all that good work in a week's time), we could survive this first wave fairly well. Then get ready fast for the subsequent waves.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Colin C No.3 on March 22, 2020, 10:04:47 PM
Our two friends have been stuck in Tenerife for two weeks (originally planned to be a one week break). They’ve been texting us & telling us that the streets & beach were empty as patrolling police were stopping & questioning anyone they came across who was outside.

They were in self catering & had to ‘dodge out’ using side streets to avoid being stopped by the authorities, in order to stock up with essentials until they could get a flight home.

They told us they joined in impromptu singing from their small balcony, much as we’ve all seen on tv reports.

They eventually got on a flight home in the early hours of Saturday morning. Great to know our friends are home however, no one on that flight was advised to self isolate at home for a period having come from a Country which is in lock down because of Covid-19.

So now we have 200+ people from that flight alone no doubt busying themselves back into society here as they food shop etc. without being tested for the virus.

Multiply this one incident that I can give you as a factual account by x ? of people being brought home from mainland Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece etc., & it begs the question why isn’t the government insisting these travellers self isolate or better still be tested when they land back in the UK?

It beggars belief!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 22, 2020, 10:14:10 PM
It's beyond belief that people need to be told to self isolate when returning from areas of high infection but they do which is why the message coming from the government needs to be unambiguous
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 22, 2020, 10:29:49 PM
On a side note, it looks like touching people with your elbows doesn't protect you from C-19.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/51995470
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 22, 2020, 10:44:27 PM
The weather forecast is for a bright sunny spring week. Just what we don't need when we are wanting people to stay inside.

The news just showed idiots working out at a park gym today. The voice over calmly stating the stainless steel bars and grips on the equipment can hold the virus for three days...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Colemans Left Hook on March 22, 2020, 10:46:07 PM
seriously think we need a theme song to get the message over to the snowflakes

otherwise the police will take control in another way

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNIZofPB8ZM
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 22, 2020, 11:42:58 PM
Watch this.

Think about what they are saying.

Do what they tell you.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BelfastTrust/status/1241796409323634690

This is a time to decide which side you are on. You can help us get through this crisis. Or you can make it worse.

Your choice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nudga on March 23, 2020, 07:01:00 AM
What a surprise, Harvey Weinstein has the virus now, he will "die".

Corey Feldman next, that'll shut him up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 23, 2020, 09:56:50 AM
If you know any bell ends who went out on jollies yesterday, send them this. And tell them to f**king well take some responsibility.

https://thespinoff.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Covid-19-Transmission-graphic-01.gif?fbclid=IwAR3-fgGKmy-bRcMYgSSL9baiCJ9p07CZkvDJBlwCGahrNziwqDhtOtx82hI
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 23, 2020, 10:41:48 AM
https://mobile.twitter.com/Gilesyb/status/1241873307034673162

Simple stuff, not being attended to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: big fat yorkshire pudding on March 23, 2020, 10:48:45 AM
https://mobile.twitter.com/Gilesyb/status/1241873307034673162

Simple stuff, not being attended to.

Great point this, they managed it for Brexit......

Though I would say you have to live a bizarre life to not know the advice.  The sad thing is so many taking it lightly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 23, 2020, 10:50:05 AM
They spent £100m on adverts telling people to prep for a no deal Brexit in October.

Two months into this emergency, there's not been a single Govt advert.

Strange priorities...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 23, 2020, 11:03:29 AM
I thought they were going to put come sort of ads out.. maybe the circumstances are changing so rapidly they just can’t decide what to say.?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jackthelad on March 23, 2020, 11:13:24 AM
So do people actually think we will have a full lockdown,if so how long?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: silent majority on March 23, 2020, 11:30:15 AM
This is well worth a watch, the numbers are staggering;

https://mobile.twitter.com/C4Dispatches/status/1241803403619172359

https://mobile.twitter.com/C4Dispatches

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 23, 2020, 12:15:05 PM
Massive day for us today. If the number of deaths is below 60-70, it will really look like we've started bending the curve much quicker than Italy did. Won't be us out of the woods, and I'm sure the stupidity of millions yesterday will cause us a problem in a week or two, but it'll mean that the bottom-up shutdown that started 10-14 days ago will have been working. Finger crossed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 23, 2020, 12:19:36 PM
We only had some significant government “advice” last Monday.  IMHO one week is too soon to determine if this has been effective.

Of course, any reduction in rate growth is welcome, but I still don’t think we test enough.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 23, 2020, 12:35:42 PM
IDM.

That's why I say bottom up.

Companies started shutting down from a fortnight ago, and to be fair, the handshaking and washing thing was established a fortnight ago even if some in here were ridiculing it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 23, 2020, 12:43:38 PM
So do people actually think we will have a full lockdown,if so how long?

Yes, without a doubt, two weeks to start with in my opinion
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 23, 2020, 12:45:54 PM
Depends how successful it is really. Two weeks absolute minimum. Probably closer to 3 months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 23, 2020, 01:12:52 PM
IDM.

That's why I say bottom up.

Companies started shutting down from a fortnight ago, and to be fair, the handshaking and washing thing was established a fortnight ago even if some in here were ridiculing it.

Yeah I was meaning more the social distancing measures..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 23, 2020, 01:37:22 PM
Just reported the lowest daily increase in cases (13%) and deaths (19%) here in the Netherlands* since the first case. German health minister is suggesting tentatively that the curve is flattening there also.


*very suprised about here, very lax response and measures relatively speaking.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 23, 2020, 02:53:59 PM
Just reported the lowest daily increase in cases (13%) and deaths (19%) here in the Netherlands* since the first case. German health minister is suggesting tentatively that the curve is flattening there also.


*very suprised about here, very lax response and measures relatively speaking.

To add.

Here is data from Dutch ICUs. https://www.stichting-nice.nl/covid-19-op-de-ic.jsp (https://www.stichting-nice.nl/covid-19-op-de-ic.jsp)

Some promising trends.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 23, 2020, 03:18:06 PM
If 21 is the final figure of deaths today from Germany, it definitely looks like they've bent the curve earlier than most countries.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 23, 2020, 03:27:57 PM
https://twitter.com/Tom_Winter/status/1242108074439127043 (https://twitter.com/Tom_Winter/status/1242108074439127043)

Meanwhile in the US - I make that a 33% increase in deaths in New York State. Deaths are doubling every 2 days there.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/21/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-by-country.html
 (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/21/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-by-country.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jackthelad on March 23, 2020, 03:40:38 PM
Will Boris lock us down today? or at all?
What times his updatE?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: drfcdrfc on March 23, 2020, 03:44:12 PM
His updates normally around 5
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Red Baron on March 23, 2020, 03:44:28 PM
Just reported the lowest daily increase in cases (13%) and deaths (19%) here in the Netherlands* since the first case. German health minister is suggesting tentatively that the curve is flattening there also.


*very suprised about here, very lax response and measures relatively speaking.


It seems that in the Netherlands they have followed a similar path to the UK and in Germany only now are they going for the more restrictive approach.

As someone said, whatever a country does appears to represent a gamble of sorts.

Certainly by the end of this week I expect the UK will be in Lockdown.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 23, 2020, 03:49:04 PM
I'm not so sure. I think if several countries start seeing a flatter curve we're in a different reality where we'll need to work out what kind of life continues. China seems to be slowly starting things up again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 23, 2020, 04:16:21 PM
Massive day for us today. If the number of deaths is below 60-70, it will really look like we've started bending the curve much quicker than Italy did. Won't be us out of the woods, and I'm sure the stupidity of millions yesterday will cause us a problem in a week or two, but it'll mean that the bottom-up shutdown that started 10-14 days ago will have been working. Finger crossed.

The figure is 46 today
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Muttley on March 23, 2020, 04:31:30 PM
46 in England plus 4 each in Scotland and Wales
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jackthelad on March 23, 2020, 04:43:38 PM
So is it slowing down do we think? Maybe no need for lockdown?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 23, 2020, 04:51:22 PM
So is it slowing down do we think? Maybe no need for lockdown?

Excellent news that the number of new deaths is low.

But keep this in perspective. Last week the deaths were doubling every 2 days. They are still roughly doubling every 4-5 days. This is far from defeated, and the last thing we should do is relax the situation. we have to get the rate of doubling up to every ten days, then every 20 days and we have to do it quickly.

This needs very careful management. If people think we've done the job and we can go back to normal anytime soon, they are in for a shock. And if people keep on acting like they did yesterday, frankly, we are f**ked.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 23, 2020, 04:56:31 PM
I'm not so sure. I think if several countries start seeing a flatter curve we're in a different reality where we'll need to work out what kind of life continues. China seems to be slowly starting things up again.

Did you see that "The Hammer and the Dance" article I posted on Saturday? That discusses that very theme.

You Hammer down the virus cases initially. That buys you time. Time to increase your ICU capacity. Time to get your shit together on mass testing. Then you Dance, lifting restrictions where you can then reimposing them where and when you need to. And that maybe goes on for 18-24 months, until we have a vaccine or herd immunity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 23, 2020, 05:03:27 PM
So is it slowing down do we think? Maybe no need for lockdown?

Excellent news that the number of new deaths is low.

But keep this in perspective. Last week the deaths were doubling every 2 days. They are still roughly doubling every 4-5 days. This is far from defeated, and the last thing we should do is relax the situation. we have to get the rate of doubling up to every ten days, then every 20 days and we have to do it quickly.

This needs very careful management. If people think we've done the job and we can go back to normal anytime soon, they are in for a shock. And if people keep on acting like they did yesterday, frankly, we are f**ked.

Put it in perspective. We have done very well to increase the doubling time of the number of deaths. we've broken off the 2 day doubling trend before France and well before Italy and Spain. (Germany has done it even faster - respect).

But, if our deaths keep doubling at the rate they are now doing, it only slightly delays disaster. Carry on at the current rate and we'd have the same number of deaths that Spain currently has by a week of Friday, instead of by next Sunday, which is where we were heading before this slowdown. We'd hit the deaths that Italy currently has by 8 April, instead of 30 March.

Keep washing your hands. Keep staying at home where you can. Keep your distance from people when you HAVE to go outdoors.

And no more f**king daytrips for a bit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jackthelad on March 23, 2020, 05:14:25 PM
Boris conference cancelled whilst he is in a emergency cobra meeting my mate just ext mate?  announcement later?

Is this true?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: bigbadjack on March 23, 2020, 05:17:35 PM
Yes it started at 5pm
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: RoversAlias on March 23, 2020, 05:21:56 PM
I didn't read that it was cancelled, just that it would be taking place later than usual as he is currently chairing a meeting of the emergency coronavirus group.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 23, 2020, 05:26:22 PM
Quote
Italy has reported another 602 deaths from coronavirus, Reuters news agency says. That brings the total death toll up to 6,078 - but it means that the daily number of deaths has fallen for the second day in a row, down from 651 on Sunday.

Crucially, our Rome correspondent Mark Lowen says, the rise in new infections has slowed again, from 9 to 8.1%.

Latest from Italy, from the BBC. Glad to see they have started to report what is going on out there in a more impartial, non-paniced way.

Terrible that 602 have gone but the trend is becoming clearer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jackthelad on March 23, 2020, 05:38:13 PM
Let's hope if it is a lockdown,something is being done for the self employed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: drfchound on March 23, 2020, 06:25:51 PM
Government update at 8.30 tonight.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jackthelad on March 23, 2020, 06:31:07 PM
Lockdown incoming  :that:
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: silent majority on March 23, 2020, 06:35:40 PM
I'm not so sure. I think if several countries start seeing a flatter curve we're in a different reality where we'll need to work out what kind of life continues. China seems to be slowly starting things up again.

We have 6 factories in China, all are open and operating at 95% capacity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: drfchound on March 23, 2020, 06:55:43 PM
Lockdown is inevitable if idiots keep going out to the seaside etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rich1471 on March 23, 2020, 07:00:23 PM
Lockdown is inevitable if idiots keep going out to the seaside etc.

Hope so it will be the only way people stay in , hope they impose £50 fines for people who go out without good cause as well
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dagenham Rover on March 23, 2020, 07:11:10 PM
Ive been working in Cleethorpes today St Peters Avenue was like a flippin Oaps tea party   heard one of them comment about social distancing etc "I've never heard owt as ridiculous in my life "    :headbang:
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 23, 2020, 07:40:23 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/MattNavarra/status/1241841354512240642
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 23, 2020, 09:07:48 PM
Lockdown it is then..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 23, 2020, 09:12:31 PM
Lockdown it is then..

Well in my opinion, that was as clear as mud, the word lockdown was n’t mentioned, to me it sounded like a final warning
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 23, 2020, 09:13:04 PM
While the dear leader is out there telling off the nation for gathering in parks, he'll no doubt be taking serious steps to deal with this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RUJ97CuVUHY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RUJ97CuVUHY)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 23, 2020, 09:41:35 PM
Lockdown it is then..

Well in my opinion, that was as clear as mud, the word lockdown was n’t mentioned, to me it sounded like a final warning

Final warning.?  That was yesterday.

The restrictions announced tonight are effective immediately, to be reviewed in 3 weeks..

Ok the PM didn’t use the word “lockdown” but to me, and I have been annoyed at the ambiguity beforehand, this is as clear as day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Colin C No.3 on March 23, 2020, 09:59:47 PM
It’s as clear as he ‘dare make’ it.

What a sad reflection on our society when we have to be ‘scolded’ by Boris for not doing as we were told via the government who are acting on advice by all the experts monitoring this virus.

Thank goodness we weren’t reliant on this selfish, ignorant, irresponsible generation in the early 40’s.



Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 23, 2020, 10:35:11 PM
It’s as clear as he ‘dare make’ it.

What a sad reflection on our society when we have to be ‘scolded’ by Boris for not doing as we were told via the government who are acting on advice by all the experts monitoring this virus.

Thank goodness we weren’t reliant on this selfish, ignorant, irresponsible generation in the early 40’s.





Is that the generation DR is talking about here?

https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=275849.msg956416#msg956416
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: big fat yorkshire pudding on March 23, 2020, 10:47:40 PM
It’s as clear as he ‘dare make’ it.

What a sad reflection on our society when we have to be ‘scolded’ by Boris for not doing as we were told via the government who are acting on advice by all the experts monitoring this virus.

Thank goodness we weren’t reliant on this selfish, ignorant, irresponsible generation in the early 40’s.





It is sad, very sad. People should know better, but it is much of the older generation ignoring it...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: pib on March 23, 2020, 10:48:22 PM
Not sure which generation is being spoken about but on my infrequent trips to the supermarket I’ve seen a lot of folks who would’ve lived through the early 40s....
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 23, 2020, 10:54:11 PM
My take?

There are selfish people in every generation.

There are altruistic people in every generation.

Every generation has wise and stupid people; greedy and selfless; brave and cowards.

There is an interesting point though. The Baby Boomer generation is the first one in a century that is passing on a poorer standard of living to the youngest in society than it itself enjoyed.

A little reflection on that wouldn't go amiss sometimes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bentley Bullet on March 23, 2020, 10:57:30 PM
Very few of those alive today would have been old enough to fight in the early '40s. The great majority of those who were alive in the '40s would have been too young to be relied upon to fight.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: pib on March 23, 2020, 11:06:00 PM
My take?

There are selfish people in every generation.

There are altruistic people in every generation.

Every generation has wise and stupid people; greedy and selfless; brave and cowards.

There is an interesting point though. The Baby Boomer generation is the first one in a century that is passing on a poorer standard of living to the youngest in society than it itself enjoyed.

A little reflection on that wouldn't go amiss sometimes.

Agreed BST. Don’t think it’s a generational issue.

Very few of those alive today would have been old enough to fight in the early '40s. The great majority of those who were alive in the '40s would have been too young to be relied upon to fight.

I don’t think anyone in this thread has intimated that they think they would’ve been BB, which is presumably why you haven’t quoted anybody.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bentley Bullet on March 23, 2020, 11:12:27 PM
I was merely pointing out that I don't think the 'selfish, ignorant, irresponsible generation in the early '40s' was the same generation as the one Dagenham Rover was referring to.


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 23, 2020, 11:19:19 PM
BB.

Save yourself the ire. You've misread my post.

I was asking whether the people who DR was talking about at Cleggy are "this selfish, ignorant, irresponsible generation" that Colin C was talking about. I was NOT suggesting that the people DR was talking about were the ones who fought the war.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bentley Bullet on March 23, 2020, 11:21:14 PM
I know what you meant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 23, 2020, 11:27:05 PM
My apologies.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 23, 2020, 11:38:22 PM
Anyway,

The news on the growth in the number of deaths continues to be better than it might have been.

1) We seem to be still tracking the China trend, which will be far better than we could have hoped, if it continues.

2) France and Germany seem to have broken the fast increase earlier than Italy did.

3) Italy is slowly getting their disaster under some control.

4) Spain...wouldn't want to swap places with them.

For us, the key number tomorrow is about 80. More deaths than that and we are starting to rise above the China trend. Fewer, and we are doing better even than they did. But here's how far we've dropped below Italy at the same point of their crisis - to catch up with them tomorrow, we'd need to see about 300 deaths tomorrow. That would be as many s we have seen in  the past 8 days put together.

Still far from out of this, but it's turning round, slowly. If we can keep following China, and start to come out of lockdown in 6-8 weeks, like they have done, that would be a fantastic achievement.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bristol Red Rover on March 24, 2020, 12:38:48 AM
I hear a lot of people thinking the lockdown is about "stopping the virus", but that would take us into 2021 and beyond and even then, just the one virus and it all kicks off again. So, anyone heard any real plan with all this or are we still on the flattening the curve plan albeit with heavy brakes just now, not overwhelming critical care resources and accepting that ultimately xx thousand will die.

I've aksed this in loads of places, never an answer, but I reckon this is the most knowledgeable hive on the planet  :clapping:
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: RoversAlias on March 24, 2020, 12:40:35 AM
Thanks BST for this regular info, finding it very useful and actually it instils a little bit of hope.

I was critical early on in this whole crisis of some of the things you were saying so felt it right to comment now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 24, 2020, 12:48:00 AM
BRR.

This.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

It's a long read, but it's important. Should really be read by everyone on the planet. It's not 100% right on detail, but the principles are right.

1) Hammer down the virus NOW, to avoid our health system being overwhelmed.

2) That is f**king hard (as we are about to see) but it gains you time. Use it to build up your testing and health care capacity.

3) Intelligently release the lock down. See which areas the virus picks up. Lock them down again. Keep other areas open.

4) Repeat 3 till some bas**rd finds a vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 24, 2020, 12:53:43 AM
Thanks BST for this regular info, finding it very useful and actually it instils a little bit of hope.

I was critical early on in this whole crisis of some of the things you were saying so felt it right to comment now.

RA.

No problem.

I've been used to being Cassandra in here. And I don't bear any grudges on this one. The scale of the threat was too big to comprehend 2-3 weeks ago unless you have a background that she's you up to deal with understanding the maths of rapid changes.

Most people don't. I get that. Most people don't need to.

That just puts a responsibility on those of us who do to get the message out in those rare times when it suddenly matters.

And, to be balanced. The trend for us at the moment is better than I could have possibly hoped 2 weeks ago. It's important to note that.

It's still going to be a f**king hard time for weeks and months. But, because enough people have been sensible in March, we have a chance of coming out of this first wave with only 2-3000 deaths, when it could have been 25,000 or 250,000.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 24, 2020, 01:20:28 AM
Mike Ashley eh?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52011915

Once a Kitson, always a Kitson.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: redwine on March 24, 2020, 05:27:09 AM
Ah, yes a founder member of the libertarian death cult.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: big fat yorkshire pudding on March 24, 2020, 07:56:50 AM
The guy is ruthless to the extreme.  Looks like they have seen sense though and not opening now.

It surprises me still to see so many people confused about the advice and instructions given, it is simple - stay at home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 24, 2020, 08:30:25 AM
Well our Company is still working, just, we have key workers in as regular bookings, care home staff, gp staff etc. We also have a couple of customers we take to DRI for chemo, we just can’t let people like that down, we have people such as those that can’t drive or get about that we take for their weekly shop, so we will have bare minimum staff working. For me personally, I have decided to stop working due to my wifes multiple health conditions, I simply can’t risk her getting the virus
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 24, 2020, 11:40:22 AM
(https://www.owlstalk.co.uk/forums/uploads/monthly_2020_03/FB_IMG_1585034728079.jpg.f0c95c2b4075a71cafdcb7ae9790e4c8.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: DN8ROVER on March 24, 2020, 01:06:48 PM
I have just been sent home from work because a collegue has phoned in sick with coronavirus symptoms. I now have to self isolate for 14 days. All i will receive is SSP of £94 a week. If i actually was sick i would receive full pay from day one as stated in my contract.
Work that one out?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 24, 2020, 01:56:56 PM
Lockdown it is then..

Well in my opinion, that was as clear as mud, the word lockdown was n’t mentioned, to me it sounded like a final warning

Having watched it again a few times, I think he’s telling people that is what is going to happen, but instructing people to start as of today, he has n’t the power to force anyone into lockdown under our current legislation, he’s waiting for the emergency powers to get through Parliament to give him the power to implement a full on lockdown probably Thursday or Friday
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 24, 2020, 02:19:22 PM
I don’t think there would be any new restrictions imposed, more that the ones announced last night may become enforceable by law.?

Perhaps that is the difference.?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bristol Red Rover on March 24, 2020, 03:23:17 PM
BRR.

This.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

It's a long read, but it's important. Should really be read by everyone on the planet. It's not 100% right on detail, but the principles are right.

1) Hammer down the virus NOW, to avoid our health system being overwhelmed.

2) That is f**king hard (as we are about to see) but it gains you time. Use it to build up your testing and health care capacity.

3) Intelligently release the lock down. See which areas the virus picks up. Lock them down again. Keep other areas open.

4) Repeat 3 till some bas**rd finds a vaccine.

Thanks for that, a good summary of the big picture, albeit a lot of guesswork and some mistakes in the details.

One big factor ignored in that is how we get resistance to viruses as well as immunity. They are different. With no resistance, like when a new virus appears or is introduced by migrating populations, the reaction of the immune system is more extreme which causes a comparitively high rate of fatalities. This is happening with this virus now. As time goes on, the virus mutates, immunity isn't the same as it's a different strain (like with flu and colds), but there is some resistance and so a less extreme immune reaction and consequently less fatalities.

Vaccines - this is a tricky virus. No vaccine for SARS for example (17 years and counting) which is closer to this than flu. Whatever comes out will be grabbed and mass trialled most likely in most places, no doubt about that. There is a huge amount of money in it, and I know people won't want to see that side but be sure, there are people and corporations in place ready to sieze any financial benefit from this crisis just as they do in any crisis - it's human social nature.

A note re vaccines. They don't stop you getting a virus, they roughly prep your body to deal wth it albeit in a lesser way than natural immunity. What they do effectively is lessen the response compared to someone without immunity as well as speeding the response (on most levels at least), so peak infection time is much reduced, the sneezing is less, the coughing is less acute etc and so most crucially it spreads less easily.

My feeling is that as we more certainly get to know the real morbitity of this, that flattening of the curve policy, hammer and dance, is what will happen, and as immunity and resistance increases it will get easier. Consequently avoiding that deathly overwhelming of critical services. Could go on for years. A vaccine... we'll see, but foolish to expect it in planning exceept as a hope.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 24, 2020, 06:12:20 PM
87 deaths today in the UK.

A little worse than I'd hoped but still indicating that we are broadly tracking the China trend rather than the Italy & Spain trend. To put it in perspective, at this point in their epidemic, Italy and Spain were having about 150 deaths per day. China was having about 65-70.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: selby on March 24, 2020, 06:17:36 PM
After the silly shenanigans this weekend are you expecting a spike in a week or two's time Billy?
  I am afraid I expect one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 24, 2020, 06:48:08 PM
I desperately hope not Selby, but I fear there will be one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sad-Rovers on March 24, 2020, 07:49:41 PM
87 deaths today in the UK.

A little worse than I'd hoped but still indicating that we are broadly tracking the China trend rather than the Italy & Spain trend. To put it in perspective, at this point in their epidemic, Italy and Spain were having about 150 deaths per day. China was having about 65-70.

Andy, with your record on predictions I’m now fully expecting the UK to be relegated on GD
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 24, 2020, 08:08:21 PM
??????????????????

''Up to 5,000 students will be allowed to return to Liberty University’s campus after school officials confirmed the conservative Christian school based in Lynchburg, Virginia, will reopen this week.

Liberty’s president, Jerry Falwell Jr, defied nationwide calls for mandatory school closures, inviting students to return amid a worsening coronavirus pandemic. Falwell is a major and vocal backer of Donald Trump and evangelicals are a core part of the president’s support base''

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/24/liberty-university-reopens-despite-coronavirus-closure-calls-jerry-falwell-jr
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 24, 2020, 08:56:58 PM
??????????????????

''Up to 5,000 students will be allowed to return to Liberty University’s campus after school officials confirmed the conservative Christian school based in Lynchburg, Virginia, will reopen this week.

Liberty’s president, Jerry Falwell Jr, defied nationwide calls for mandatory school closures, inviting students to return amid a worsening coronavirus pandemic. Falwell is a major and vocal backer of Donald Trump and evangelicals are a core part of the president’s support base''

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/24/liberty-university-reopens-despite-coronavirus-closure-calls-jerry-falwell-jr

They’re not wired up reight them yanks
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 24, 2020, 09:22:28 PM
Today's graph.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 24, 2020, 09:29:36 PM
Quote
Trump, in common with all populists and demagogues, favours simple solutions to complex problems.

Just caught this from Nick Bryant going down the BBC live ticker. I don't think you will find a more succint account of our current era than this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 24, 2020, 09:30:26 PM
Would be interesting to see USA on there, while there government can’t agree on extra funding the virus is running wild over there
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 24, 2020, 09:31:22 PM
https://www.ft.com/content/649a7e5a-6dab-11ea-89df-41bea055720b (https://www.ft.com/content/649a7e5a-6dab-11ea-89df-41bea055720b)

Mike Ashley, ladies and gentlemen. I encourage everyone to never step foot in one of his shops again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 24, 2020, 09:32:01 PM
https://www.yorkshireeveningpost.co.uk/read-this/wetherspoons-founder-tim-martin-has-told-staff-who-might-not-be-paid-during-lockdown-go-work-tesco-2516460 (https://www.yorkshireeveningpost.co.uk/read-this/wetherspoons-founder-tim-martin-has-told-staff-who-might-not-be-paid-during-lockdown-go-work-tesco-2516460)

Heres another complete idiot.*

edit. Sorry, I meant cnt.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Colin C No.3 on March 24, 2020, 10:08:48 PM
The ‘Here today gone tomorrow’ brigade are beginning to show their true colours now (as if we didn’t truly believe they were ever good ‘people’), let’s remember them & their ‘Empires built by us, the consumer’, once we get to the other side of this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: pib on March 24, 2020, 10:43:22 PM
Where to even start with this...

https://twitter.com/lilliemaenot/status/1242410885236260864?s=21
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 25, 2020, 12:45:13 AM
And here's the irony pib.

If the rest of us do the right thing and we get on top of CV-19, f**king idiots like that will say, in that Hyacinth Bouquet voice, "See! I told you it was all an over-reaction."

I wonder where it comes from? The combination of blind f**king ignorance and absolute certainty about being right.

The older I get, the more convinced I am that there is an inverse correlation between genuine understanding and belief in how much you actually know yourself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 25, 2020, 12:52:47 AM
Slightly different take on the graph today.

I've previously just been sliding each country up and down the time line until the traces looked like they matched. That's a bit questionable. Lots of other people have been plotting this info with all the traces starting at the day the number of deaths in each country first hit 5 or 10. I've said before, i think that's misleading, because in the early stages, the deaths are sporadic. I think it's much more accurate to wait until there are a steady number of deaths per day and the randomness is getting smoothed out.

Anyway, I've changed the graph, so that it is now looking at the time since each country went through 100 deaths. That's actually only affected two countries.

Spain now looks horrific
Germany looks like it's not miraculously bucked the trend - just been slower starting.

So none of that is good news.

I've also added the USA. They look to be on the trend of France or Italy. But without the leadership to lockdown nationally, I'm actually getting very scared for what is going to happen there.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ian1980 on March 25, 2020, 08:00:01 AM
Very interesting (if some what sobering) to see these daily graphs BST, please keep posting them.

USA appear to be in a right pickle looking at that and I don’t see them being able to get on top of it.

A little reassuring to see the UK line, the next few days will give a better understanding to see if we maintain that current curve though.

The halfwits that are ignoring the advise (mainly London it appears on the tube and construction sites) could impact the outcome massively
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 25, 2020, 08:19:28 AM
Construction workers - the government has abdicated the responsibility for whether this industry works or not..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: pib on March 25, 2020, 08:44:47 AM
And here's the irony pib.

If the rest of us do the right thing and we get on top of CV-19, f**king idiots like that will say, in that Hyacinth Bouquet voice, "See! I told you it was all an over-reaction."

I wonder where it comes from? The combination of blind f**king ignorance and absolute certainty about being right.

The older I get, the more convinced I am that there is an inverse correlation between genuine understanding and belief in how much you actually know yourself.

The comment that got me was “we’ve had our lives”, as if she speaks for everyone in her age group.

She might not be bothered about dying of this while she’s having a jolly-up at the seaside, but I would bet my last pound that she would be begging and praying to make a full recovery if she contracted it.

And I’m sure she’d be the first to complain if her sons/daughters or grandchildren were unable to get an ambulance or a hospital bed if something other than C-19 was to befall them at some point over the coming 6 months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 25, 2020, 09:15:35 AM
Regarding the new hospital in London, I wrote this 9 days ago

https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=275849.msg955187#msg955187

Why are the Government slow to react?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: big fat yorkshire pudding on March 25, 2020, 09:48:08 AM
Regarding the new hospital in London, I wrote this 9 days ago

https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=275849.msg955187#msg955187

Why are the Government slow to react?

They do not as yet need it, they've clearly planned it and now putting it in to place.

As for construction, I'm unsure at the minute. Some aspects of it mean distancing cannot happen, others should still take place, some indeed are integral to keeping things going (maintenance, testing etc).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 25, 2020, 09:49:47 AM
Filo.

Here's a thought. This is the kind of lateral thinking we need from Govt.

https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRampling/status/1242535522691620864
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Colin C No.3 on March 25, 2020, 10:09:00 AM
Filo.

Here's a thought. This is the kind of lateral thinking we need from Govt.

https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRampling/status/1242535522691620864

Wouldn’t you just love to see that idea put to Boris live on tv!?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 25, 2020, 10:10:20 AM
Filo.

Here's a thought. This is the kind of lateral thinking we need from Govt.

https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRampling/status/1242535522691620864

Black cabs are ideal, there is a partition, no money needs to change hands the Government can pay the fare
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 25, 2020, 10:14:21 AM
I can’t get the twitter link on my phone - what’s this idea.?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: bpoolrover on March 25, 2020, 10:24:25 AM
Filo.

Here's a thought. This is the kind of lateral thinking we need from Govt.

https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRampling/status/1242535522691620864

Wouldn’t you just love to see that idea put to Boris live on tv!?
while safer than public transport it’s still a danger if spreading it this way thou
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: bpoolrover on March 25, 2020, 10:25:16 AM
I can’t get the twitter link on my phone - what’s this idea.?
there are 20k black cab drivers why not get them to drive key workers to work rather than use public transport
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 25, 2020, 10:31:58 AM
And THIS is what I meant when I said a couple of weeks ago that we should be considering a National Coalition Govt.

You need the best brains from all sides. It's not to say that Lab/LD/SNP politicians are smarter than the Tories. It's that the more smart people you have, the more the load can be spread and the more chance there is if the genius left-field idea getting a hearing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 25, 2020, 10:42:22 AM
Prince Charles tests positive for COVID-19, he best stay away from Phil the Greek, that will finish him off for sure
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: bpoolrover on March 25, 2020, 11:20:55 AM
We don’t need a coalition government as they would never agree on anything in fact I can’t think of much worse, yes we need the brains but we don’t need a coalition government to get that surley
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: pib on March 25, 2020, 11:29:36 AM
Just been sent this by a friend - you can use this smartphone app to self-report symptoms on a daily basis (even if you are well) to help scientists track the spread of this virus, and identify high-risk areas in the UK.

https://covid.joinzoe.com

Great idea IMO and is one small way that we can all help to tackle this crisis! Sorry if it's already been posted elsewhere.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 25, 2020, 11:32:33 AM
Its a major way Pib. In fact, it will be the major way in which the virus in contained once we flatten the curve.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 25, 2020, 11:48:01 AM
We don’t need a coalition government as they would never agree on anything in fact I can’t think of much worse, yes we need the brains but we don’t need a coalition government to get that surley

Yes, because it was a real disaster in WWII wasn't it?

Churchill and Attlee were massive political enemies.

Attlee hated Churchill for having sent in troops to break miners' strikes in Wales.

Churchill accused Attlee of planning a Gestapo police to implement socialism.

Attlee considered Churchill to be an example of the reactionary establishment.

Churchill regularly belittled Attlee as a person of no importance. He said "An empty taxi pulled up outside No10 and Clement Attlee got out." And "Attlee is a modest man, with much to be modest about."

But when we were facing a deadly enemy and economic carnage, they worked together every single day as PM and Deputy PM. Making sure that the fight wasn't about politics. It was about uniting the country.

It's a sad indictment of your thinking about politics that you assume it's always and everywhere about arguing for the sake of arguing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 25, 2020, 11:50:16 AM
We don’t need a coalition government as they would never agree on anything in fact I can’t think of much worse, yes we need the brains but we don’t need a coalition government to get that surley

Probably correct there for once bp, get rid of johnson and the tories and give the adults a go  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 25, 2020, 12:00:44 PM
Prince Charles tests positive for COVID-19, he best stay away from Phil the Greek, that will finish him off for sure

Adam Ramsey tweet:

''My parents live in rural NE Scotland. They at risk and will rely on the stretched NHS if they do get Covid-19. Charles Windsor explicitly ignored requests to stay away, risking the lives of countless others so he can be somewhere with a nice view. It's fair to say I'm angry.''

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bristol Red Rover on March 25, 2020, 12:13:37 PM
BST good work with the graphs, always good to see various methods  :thumbsup: FWIW, I prefer what you did before with matching them around the start.

Re the Coalition gov - On the one hand the tories, esp Johnson, won't want to be giving anyone Labour, esp the leadership candidates, any credibility they'd get from being in power as such. On the other hand, if this pans towards being the unavoidable disaster it seems to be, it would give some wiggle room of directing blame, or at least mitigating blame, at a later date. And Johnson is a master at the old wiggle.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 25, 2020, 12:14:39 PM
UK Approx 50% spike in new cases and deaths yesterday, hopefully were not going to see that repeated to often.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 25, 2020, 12:35:28 PM
Very interesting (if some what sobering) to see these daily graphs BST, please keep posting them.

USA appear to be in a right pickle looking at that and I don’t see them being able to get on top of it.

A little reassuring to see the UK line, the next few days will give a better understanding to see if we maintain that current curve though.

The halfwits that are ignoring the advise (mainly London it appears on the tube and construction sites) could impact the outcome massively

Ian

Cheers. Happy to be of service. A lot of my job revolves around finding patterns in complex, messy data and drawing reasonable conclusions from that. Not very often that spills out into the world outside my work.

As for the trends, my take today is:

-if we have 50-90 deaths, we are still broadly tracking China and moving progressively more and more below the USA/West Europe trends.

- 90-130 deaths is a bit more worrying: we'll be clearly moving above the China trend.

130+ and we're heading back to the France/USA/Italy position.

Fingers crossed folks. Kind of puts the experience of looking forward to/dreading an upcoming football match into some sort of perspective.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 25, 2020, 12:37:15 PM
Very interesting (if some what sobering) to see these daily graphs BST, please keep posting them.

USA appear to be in a right pickle looking at that and I don’t see them being able to get on top of it.

A little reassuring to see the UK line, the next few days will give a better understanding to see if we maintain that current curve though.

The halfwits that are ignoring the advise (mainly London it appears on the tube and construction sites) could impact the outcome massively

Ian

Cheers. Happy to be of service. A lot of my job revolves around finding patterns in complex, messy data and drawing reasonable conclusions from that. Not very often that spills out into the world outside my work.

As for the trends, my take today is:

-if we have 50-90 deaths, we are still broadly tracking China and moving progressively more and more below the USA/West Europe trends.

- 90-130 deaths is a bit more worrying: we'll be clearly moving above the China trend.

130+ and we're heading back to the France/USA/Italy position.

Fingers crossed folks. Kind of puts the experience of looking forward to/dreading an upcoming football match into some sort of perspective.

5 more in Wales today
6 more in Scotland
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Ldr on March 25, 2020, 12:58:52 PM
Very interesting (if some what sobering) to see these daily graphs BST, please keep posting them.

USA appear to be in a right pickle looking at that and I don’t see them being able to get on top of it.

A little reassuring to see the UK line, the next few days will give a better understanding to see if we maintain that current curve though.

The halfwits that are ignoring the advise (mainly London it appears on the tube and construction sites) could impact the outcome massively

Ian

Cheers. Happy to be of service. A lot of my job revolves around finding patterns in complex, messy data and drawing reasonable conclusions from that. Not very often that spills out into the world outside my work.

As for the trends, my take today is:

-if we have 50-90 deaths, we are still broadly tracking China and moving progressively more and more below the USA/West Europe trends.

- 90-130 deaths is a bit more worrying: we'll be clearly moving above the China trend.

130+ and we're heading back to the France/USA/Italy position.

Fingers crossed folks. Kind of puts the experience of looking forward to/dreading an upcoming football match into some sort of perspective.

BST love the graphs, think the public demands a webcast a la jon snow on election nights complete with swingometer
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 25, 2020, 01:01:42 PM
You would need a wide angle lens to get my swingometer in shot...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 25, 2020, 04:10:56 PM
New York 5000 cases in one day 😳😳😳😳😳
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 25, 2020, 05:15:06 PM
From the Dutch Government a few hours ago. Quite significant, they haven't released anything like this since the start.

Quote
Possible flattening in number of new hospital admissions for patients with COVID-19
Over the past few days, the number of new patients admitted to hospital had shown a rising curve. That curve now seems to be flattening out. This may indicate a slight decline in how fast the virus is spreading. This is an initial indication. We cannot draw solid conclusions on this basis. It will become apparent in the next few days whether the curve is in fact flattening out.

Based on the figures for the number of hospital admissions, mathematical models are used to calculate how fast the virus is spreading. It would also appear that the virus is now spreading less rapidly. Here, too, it will become apparent in the next few days whether this slowing trend continues.

A number of deceased patients were reported again today. However, those reports concerned people who had died sometime within the past few days. Deaths are not always reported immediately. For that reason, a new chart now shows the number of deceased patients according to the day on which they died.

Overview of the numbers
Total number of confirmed cases: 6412 (+852)
Total number of reported deaths: 356 (+ 80)
Total number of confirmed cases who are or were admitted to hospital: 1836 (+341)

The below link also shows hospitalisations due to Covid-19. Appears to have flattened, may even be decreasing.

https://www.rivm.nl/nieuws/actuele-informatie-over-coronavirus/data
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: adamtherover on March 25, 2020, 05:35:06 PM
The figures coming out today are practically non existent, is this the start of something positive,  or just a one off?  We can only hope....

2% increase in new cases and deaths, opposed to huge numbers the day before..?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rich1471 on March 25, 2020, 05:39:08 PM
Off-licences have been added to the government's list of essential UK retailers allowed to stay open during the coronavirus pandemic. only in England
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dutch Uncle on March 25, 2020, 05:47:02 PM
Quote
Trump, in common with all populists and demagogues, favours simple solutions to complex problems.

Just caught this from Nick Bryant going down the BBC live ticker. I don't think you will find a more succint account of our current era than this.

Beautifully apposite to Einstein’s ‘things should be as simple as possible, but not more so’
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 25, 2020, 05:50:47 PM
The figures coming out today are practically non existent, is this the start of something positive,  or just a one off?  We can only hope....

Figures can change day by day, yes, but there are definitely emerging trends. Most European countries were reporting daily case number increases of 30-40% a few weeks ago. Its now down in most to 10-25%. In Italy the case increase was 7.5% from Yesterday to today - the lowest increase in any Western European country for a long time. As we know the number of cases is not an indication of the overall infection rate, but it can tell you something about the trend. And it also suggests that we should expect to see a much lower number of deaths starting in a few weeks in Italy - as the lag time from infection/hospitalisation passes.

The thing that needs realising, however, is that it is the rate of increase that is flattening - and not the absolute numbers of hospitalisations, positive tests, or deaths which continue to increase. Reducing the rate of increase was the policy of most countries all along and it appears (tentatively) to be working (given our massive-scale social lockdowns!)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: selby on March 25, 2020, 05:59:19 PM
  I will be disappointed in the future with all this going off here. and the criticism of the government amounts of money given to the NHS, wages for self employed, and  the employed if we continue to shovel money out in foreign aid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 25, 2020, 06:02:56 PM
400,000+ volunteering to help the NHS in the space of 24hrs is something I think the country can be proud of.

There are many others volunteering at a local level, who won't be counted in these numbers too. I'm a shopper, helper and general gofer for the retirement flats where my Mum lives. It's not sheltered accommodation but it might as well be given the numbers who are aged over 70, most of whom have underlying health conditions. Basically if it gets in to that building it'll wipe out a large proportion of them. Many are too scared to even step into the corridor.

I think we are in a situation that can only be compared with wartime. I think BST has a point about a coalition government but it might be more realistic if the Labour Party could hurry up, elect a leader and sort a shadow cabinet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 25, 2020, 06:05:41 PM
  I will be disappointed in the future with all this going off here. and the criticism of the government amounts of money given to the NHS, wages for self employed, and  the employed if we continue to shovel money out in foreign aid.

If the country can afford to give overseas aid, it should.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: selby on March 25, 2020, 06:09:08 PM
  Better things to spend it on in this country now IDM, people have had a good run out of the tax payer in this country, but now it is time to spend  it on our own population.
  The situation has changed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 25, 2020, 06:25:08 PM
Yeah, the raising out of poverty of 100s of millions of people in India, China, Eastern Europe has had not benefitted us at all Selby. Foreign doctors haven't been trained to work in NHS hospitals. British companies aren't leading in telecommunications and energy supply in Africa. Peace hasn't been brought to many wartorne regions reducing migration pressures.

We should pack it all in and wait for that 350m windfall from leaving the EU.

[/closes irony]
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 25, 2020, 06:28:24 PM
  Better things to spend it on in this country now IDM, people have had a good run out of the tax payer in this country, but now it is time to spend  it on our own population.
  The situation has changed.

You think only the UK is taking an economic hit during this pandemic.?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 25, 2020, 06:31:29 PM
When Johnson said at his presser today he was disgusted at people profiteering from the covid-19 crises do you think he meant this bloke:

https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedNewsUK/status/1242815195287891968

(Tory MP Owen Patterson is paid £100k per year by the company that makes the testing kits sold at a mark up to private patients rather than at cost to the NHS, if you can't be bothered to read the link)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bristol Red Rover on March 25, 2020, 06:38:11 PM
  .....if we continue to shovel money out in foreign aid.

If companies based here and trading here paid their taxes properly in those countries, we woudn't need to be paying that aid - although as we as a country have profited from looting over a long time, I'm not sure how you justify suggesting aid shouldn't be paid.

Plenty of articles to read about this if you're pleading ignorance  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 25, 2020, 06:56:14 PM
New York 5000 cases in one day 😳😳😳😳😳

No Filo. 5000 new confirmed cases. More likely 50000 new cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 25, 2020, 06:59:43 PM
New York 5000 cases in one day 😳😳😳😳😳

No Filo. 5000 new confirmed cases. More likely 50000 new cases.

Whichever way, New York needs isolating pronto
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: selby on March 25, 2020, 07:07:35 PM
  IDM, when it comes to tax paid by Uk residents in the present climate, I am not bothered about spending our tax money on foreign aid.
   There are UK citizens who will be in desperate need of being helped
to get back on their feet that concern me far more.
   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 25, 2020, 07:17:40 PM
  IDM, when it comes to tax paid by Uk residents in the present climate, I am not bothered about spending our tax money on foreign aid.
   There are UK citizens who will be in desperate need of being helped
to get back on their feet that concern me far more.
   

No one is saying uk citizens shouldn’t be helped, just that this doesn’t mean foreign aid should stop.. that’s all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Fulham Rover on March 25, 2020, 07:22:21 PM
BST - what is the trajectory now looking like based on today's stats?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 25, 2020, 07:23:24 PM
BST - what is the trajectory now looking like based on today's stats?

I don’t think England stats have been released today yet
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 25, 2020, 07:35:07 PM
  IDM, when it comes to tax paid by Uk residents in the present climate, I am not bothered about spending our tax money on foreign aid.
   There are UK citizens who will be in desperate need of being helped
to get back on their feet that concern me far more.
   

We can do both.

We MUST do both.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 25, 2020, 07:36:28 PM
Very odd that they haven't released the England figures yet.

The figures used to be released about 14:30. Then it slipped to 16:00. Never been remotely this late though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ChrisBx on March 25, 2020, 08:00:52 PM
Very odd that they haven't released the England figures yet.

The figures used to be released about 14:30. Then it slipped to 16:00. Never been remotely this late though.

I'm getting quite worried that there's some particularly bad news coming.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 25, 2020, 08:07:35 PM
No other country has held back numbers as far as I know. And there's been some horrific numbers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: big fat yorkshire pudding on March 25, 2020, 08:08:31 PM
Very odd that they haven't released the England figures yet.

The figures used to be released about 14:30. Then it slipped to 16:00. Never been remotely this late though.

I'm getting quite worried that there's some particularly bad news coming.

It is Dianne Abbott's turn....

In all seriousness it is a bit odd, maybe just difficulty collating the data.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 25, 2020, 08:22:10 PM
I wonder why everyone takes the piss out of Dianne Abbott having once had an interview where she made a mistake with numbers?

Why is that so hilarious?

Why does no-one take the piss out of, say, Rory Stewart, who had exactly the same thing happen?

I wonder what it can be...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: drfchound on March 25, 2020, 08:29:56 PM
Is everyone taking the piss out of DA or is it just bfyp?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bentley Bullet on March 25, 2020, 08:32:53 PM
I wonder why everyone takes the piss out of Dianne Abbott having once had an interview where she made a mistake with numbers?

Why is that so hilarious?

Why does no-one take the piss out of, say, Rory Stewart, who had exactly the same thing happen?

I wonder what it can be...

What are you suggesting it could be?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 25, 2020, 08:35:16 PM
I'm not suggesting anything. I just don't understand why the gleeful pile on on an overweight black female socialist, and no-one having any recollection of a white upper middle class male Tory doing the same thing.

Strange, isn't it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Glyn_Wigley on March 25, 2020, 08:36:33 PM
  IDM, when it comes to tax paid by Uk residents in the present climate, I am not bothered about spending our tax money on foreign aid.
   There are UK citizens who will be in desperate need of being helped
to get back on their feet that concern me far more.
   

You do know that Foreign Aid isn't about charity but economic strategy?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 25, 2020, 08:38:25 PM
TBF DA has a back catalogue of fook ups....
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 25, 2020, 08:42:16 PM
People remember Dianne Abbott - but they forget the interview the current Prime Minister gave where he admitted to conspiring to beat up a jounalist, made up stories he published as a 'jounalist' and failed to deny he was a liar.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/mar/24/boris-johnson-interview-eddie-mair

And then don't ask questions as to why the UK has not published its mortality rate for a global pandemic for 29 hours (and counting) and if government led by said liar is telling the truth about the policy it has been following.

But yeh Dianne Abbott

Funny old world.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bentley Bullet on March 25, 2020, 08:45:14 PM
I'm not suggesting anything. I just don't understand why the gleeful pile on on an overweight black female socialist, and no-one having any recollection of a white upper middle class male Tory doing the same thing.

Strange, isn't it?
So it's racism and colour prejudice raising its ugly head again, is it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 25, 2020, 08:47:49 PM
You'd have to ask the people who gleefully pile in BB. I've no idea. It genuinely baffles me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ChrisBx on March 25, 2020, 08:51:06 PM
A further 28 deaths in England.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bentley Bullet on March 25, 2020, 08:52:57 PM
You'd have to ask the people who gleefully pile in BB. I've no idea. It genuinely baffles me.
Don't you think it might be because a lot of people see her as a patronising, racist bigot?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 25, 2020, 08:55:21 PM
You'd have to ask the people who gleefully pile in BB. I've no idea. It genuinely baffles me.
Don't you think it might be because a lot of people see her as a patronising, racist bigot?

Or generally incompetent...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: scawsby steve on March 25, 2020, 09:33:45 PM
You'd have to ask the people who gleefully pile in BB. I've no idea. It genuinely baffles me.
Don't you think it might be because a lot of people see her as a patronising, racist bigot?

How on Earth she got away with saying that West Indian women make better mothers than white women I'll never know.

She certainly clammed up when Andrew Neill took her to task on it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: big fat yorkshire pudding on March 25, 2020, 09:42:57 PM
You'd have to ask the people who gleefully pile in BB. I've no idea. It genuinely baffles me.
Don't you think it might be because a lot of people see her as a patronising, racist bigot?

Or generally incompetent...

This frankly...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 25, 2020, 09:44:58 PM
You'd have to ask the people who gleefully pile in BB. I've no idea. It genuinely baffles me.
Don't you think it might be because a lot of people see her as a patronising, racist bigot?

Or generally incompetent...

This frankly...

Chris Grayling trumps her surely
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: big fat yorkshire pudding on March 25, 2020, 09:47:49 PM
You'd have to ask the people who gleefully pile in BB. I've no idea. It genuinely baffles me.
Don't you think it might be because a lot of people see her as a patronising, racist bigot?

Or generally incompetent...

This frankly...

Chris Grayling trumps her surely

If he doesn't he isn't far off...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Colin C No.3 on March 25, 2020, 10:28:59 PM
I wonder why everyone takes the piss out of Dianne Abbott having once had an interview where she made a mistake with numbers?

Why is that so hilarious?

Why does no-one take the piss out of, say, Rory Stewart, who had exactly the same thing happen?

I wonder what it can be...
I remember seeing her on some late night ‘I’ll scratch your back if you’ll scratch mine’ political show (& I use the term political in its broadcast sense) with Jeffrey Archer.

The programme ended with them both sat side by side on foot stools, nudging one another & coming out with phrases like “Well I’ll give you that one Jeffrey” to which he’d reply “I’m sure it will be your turn to be on top next week” nudge nudge, wink wink..queue any vessel to puke into.

No ta. Not a politician I’d cross the road to shake hands with for all the good work they’d done during their long (& ongoing) political career.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 25, 2020, 11:16:14 PM
I'll upload the daily graph shortly.

Here's a brilliant little video on exponential growth of epidemics by the way. This might explain why folk who are familiar with maths on a daily basis were so scared about CV-19, from such an early time. And why any politician who, at those early times, pooh-poohed the small number of deaths, should never be trusted with a serious decision ever again.

https://youtu.be/Kas0tIxDvrg
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 25, 2020, 11:31:02 PM
Here's today's graph. I actually did a "Get the f**k in!" thing with my fist when today's number came out. Not quite on the level of the response when Butler scored at Charlton, but getting there.

It's getting more certain that the early social distancing that most of us started practicising a few weeks ago is paying dividends. Massive big ups to the whole country. Nothing certain yet, but if that's the case, and we don't f**k it up from here, it's looking like we might just get out of the first wave without the NHS reaching breaking point. Got to keep working at it though.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 25, 2020, 11:38:04 PM
Numbers to look out for tomorrow.

60 or less and we are dropping below China.

60-90 and we are still broadly tracking them.

90-130 and we are rising above China but not horrendously.

Much above 130 would have us heading back towards USA/France levels, but we would need to have ~350 to catch up to them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 26, 2020, 12:53:45 AM
Hang on...

This from the Dept for Health.

"Please note these figures do not cover a full 24 hour period."

Back on tenterhooks then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BigH on March 26, 2020, 06:47:21 AM
BST, is it possible to break down the numbers on some sort of regional basis or, say, between London and the rest of the UK?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Superspy on March 26, 2020, 07:23:12 AM
Hang on...

This from the Dept for Health.

"Please note these figures do not cover a full 24 hour period."

Back on tenterhooks then.

Wonder if that's why there was a delay in the number being released? Maybe they're shifting the 24 hour measure period or something?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: big fat yorkshire pudding on March 26, 2020, 07:23:19 AM
Hang on...

This from the Dept for Health.

"Please note these figures do not cover a full 24 hour period."

Back on tenterhooks then.

Also seen it mentioned they wont add people to the numbers without family consent, which seems weird.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Superspy on March 26, 2020, 07:24:55 AM
That can't be right, it almost completely defeats the purpose of tracking the numbers, surely? To the best of my knowledge every other death at any other point is recorded in some way in official figures so why would this be any different?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Donnywolf on March 26, 2020, 07:41:45 AM
First casualty of war is truth - it is always said

Does anyone have corroboration on Chinas death toll ? Spain said to be overtaking Chinas death toll figure

Anyone got the Italy v UK stats that were on here recently as I would like to see the updated version

Cheers DW 35.6 (Armpit Temp - checked every few hours)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: knockers on March 26, 2020, 08:34:42 AM
BST, is it possible to break down the numbers on some sort of regional basis or, say, between London and the rest of the UK?

They’ve done this on the BBC news site
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: nightporter on March 26, 2020, 09:31:02 AM
Some interesting data here. 

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/uk-shopping-travel-data-coronavirus
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 26, 2020, 09:32:44 AM
BST, is it possible to break down the numbers on some sort of regional basis or, say, between London and the rest of the UK?

I'm.sure it is, but I'm not planning on doing anything with those numbers at the moment.

The whole point is that, until the numbers of deaths get into relatively big numbers in each region or country, the "trend" doesn't really exist. It's dominated by the randomness of when the deaths actually occur. Once you are getting into several 10s per day, the randomness dies down. 31 Vs 30 isn't a big difference. 2 Vs 1 is a huge difference.

Plus, I've got too much other stuff on to spend time drilling down into more detail. I'm just going to stick with the big picture for now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 26, 2020, 09:33:52 AM
Not sure if already posted - but I thought this was interesting...

(https://www.owlstalk.co.uk/forums/uploads/monthly_2020_03/Pandemics.jpg.6c7f5b00bb4c8c210ea8af3454c994a5.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 26, 2020, 10:36:53 AM
It is a nice graphic, but it is doing the rounds, sent by people (I say "people": I suspect Russian bots) who are suggesting that CV-19 is all being blown out of proportion.

That ignores the concept of exponential growth.

That graphic is just 10 days old. Already it is out of date. The number of deaths worldwide as of this morning is 21,200. (Edit: 11:05 - the figure is now 22,020...)

The global death toll is currently doubling about every 5-6 days. That equates to increasing tenfold every 2.5 weeks. Project that through to the end of April, and CV-19 is ninth on the list at the bottom of that graphic. Take it to early June and CV-19 will (if we don't stop it) have killed as many people in 5 months as AIDS has killed in 40 years.


So yeah. Pretty graphic. And a really REALLY dangerous one if people look at it and decide that they don't need to listen to advice on stopping the spread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 26, 2020, 11:12:54 AM
It is a nice graphic

And that is why I put it on - no conspiracy or attempt to blow anything out of proportion...... at least not from me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 26, 2020, 11:19:20 AM
One interesting study from Iceland, showing that there are 40 mutations of the virus there. On the positive side, apparently as the virus mutates - generally less deadly (but more contagious) strains of the virus spread. Another interesting finding is that one of those strains derived from a 'football match in England'

https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/03/forskere-sporet-40-mutationer-coronavirus-alene-paa-island (https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/03/forskere-sporet-40-mutationer-coronavirus-alene-paa-island)

Also, you may have seen in Northern Italy many doctors and mayors suggesting that the Atalanta vs Valencia match was a major source of the spread of the virus. They estimate 1/3rd (one third) of the Bergamo population was at that match.

We know the virus is aerosolised to a certain extent, to the extent that in confined spaces with close contact it can be transmitted via aerosolised droplets. There was some weird brief consensus a few weeks back among the football community that only if we put hand-sanitisers in football stadiums we could somehow avoid transmission. That was, in retrospect, very wrong.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973
 (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973)
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK554776/ (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK554776/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 26, 2020, 11:22:26 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A4eu-h_owaI
 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A4eu-h_owaI)
I would recommend watching this guys videos. Very informative. This one talks about the role of 'fever' as a response of the body to fight viruses. In layman's terms, fever is a natural resposnse of the body and shouldn't be supressed - you body is literally cooking itself to produce good things to kills viruses.

But people chose over the counter medicines to supress fever...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 26, 2020, 01:01:23 PM
It is a nice graphic

And that is why I put it on - no conspiracy or attempt to blow anything out of proportion...... at least not from me.

No problem. No finger pointing from me - I'm just saying this as a warning.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 26, 2020, 01:14:54 PM
Christ almighty! USA unemployment has gone up from 5.7 million in Feb to 9 million this month.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 26, 2020, 01:57:56 PM
3 more deaths in Scotland today
6 in Wales
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bristol Red Rover on March 26, 2020, 03:18:36 PM
Love the graphic - as BST mentions, would be better if adjusted by population eg to present population. It does significantly miss out malaria, TB and others.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bristol Red Rover on March 26, 2020, 03:21:30 PM
One interesting study from Iceland, showing that there are 40 mutations of the virus there....

Mutations aren't something to be overly concerned with, as you say often they mutate to a weaker strain, but also there is a resistance to most if not all strains that people get from having contact from any variant. Not immunity but resistance, ie a less dangerous immune response by a partially primed system.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Metalmicky on March 26, 2020, 04:06:23 PM
The news in Spain today is full of the story that the government bought a huge amount of unreliable tests from an uncertified source because they were cheaper.

Underlines what the UK Governments advisers have been saying about testing the tests and a bad test being worse than no test at all.

(https://www.owlstalk.co.uk/forums/uploads/monthly_2020_03/Screenshot_20200326_151728_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.6d78433f62cf8b81c83a54531c859fc5.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ChrisBx on March 26, 2020, 06:08:38 PM
115 new deaths reported.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ian1980 on March 26, 2020, 06:16:50 PM
115 is a bigger number than I’d hoped for today but could the number be out slightly if yesterday’s period wasn’t a full 24 hours meaning this period was longer??

Ie. If yesterday’s figure was 20 higher and today’s figure 20 lower, it wouldn’t look so bad a jump

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: big fat yorkshire pudding on March 26, 2020, 06:19:50 PM
No they did a short period followed by a normal 24hr period.  So he next few days will be interesting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dutch Uncle on March 26, 2020, 06:20:20 PM
Would it be reasonable as a one time rough guide to add today’s and yesterday’s and divide by 2? So 115 + 28 / 2 = ca 72?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 26, 2020, 06:23:53 PM
115 new deaths reported.

113
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 26, 2020, 06:44:02 PM
Would it be reasonable as a one time rough guide to add today’s and yesterday’s and divide by 2? So 115 + 28 / 2 = ca 72?

I think what they have done is give figures for an 8 hour period 'yesterday' and give figures for a 24 hour period 'today', not overlapping. So if you added them up and divided by two you would technically have the figure for only a 16 hour period.

Its a little awkward, but technically now, the number of deaths for the last day is 115 (113?), as they announced.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bristol Red Rover on March 26, 2020, 06:48:03 PM
115 new deaths reported.

113

Has a long haired semitic immigrant been employed by the NHS?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dutch Uncle on March 26, 2020, 07:13:17 PM
Would it be reasonable as a one time rough guide to add today’s and yesterday’s and divide by 2? So 115 + 28 / 2 = ca 72?

I think what they have done is give figures for an 8 hour period 'yesterday' and give figures for a 24 hour period 'today', not overlapping. So if you added them up and divided by two you would technically have the figure for only a 16 hour period.

Its a little awkward, but technically now, the number of deaths for the last day is 115 (113?), as they announced.

Thanks Copps, I had no estimate for how many hours were covered yesterday, I certainly didn’t’ realise it was as few as 8. So The last two days ca 84 and 113/5 then for trending purposes?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 26, 2020, 07:26:35 PM
That's not what I heard on R4 tonight.

They said yesterday's figure was for 12 hours and today's for 36 hours, with it returning to 24 hours tomorrow.

I've no idea if that is correct or not, but the point was made several times that to get a better idea of the trend, we should average out yesterday's and today's values. Which would give about 80 per day.

Listen from 14:45 here.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000glny
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: big fat yorkshire pudding on March 26, 2020, 07:28:57 PM
Yesterday’s figures did not cover a full 24 hour period while we adjust to the new system. These figures comprised the period from 9am 24 March to 5pm on 24 March.

Figures issued today are recorded as of 5pm 24 March to 5pm 25 March.

Official comment above per department of social health Twitter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 26, 2020, 08:21:34 PM
Ouch. So it does.

That means the last two days' figures are a bit concerning then.

And so much for Nick Watt from the BBC. Looks like he got it totally wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 26, 2020, 08:26:19 PM
The tweet BFYP refers to (and thread 'explaining' it):

https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1243237215511220224

For what it's worth, slighty below Italy now and compatible with France on Ed Conway's graph

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1243264292075589634/photo/1
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 26, 2020, 08:28:45 PM
Just watching question time ... damn... I know we aren't supposed to get political but some damning indictments on our government heard.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 26, 2020, 08:39:00 PM
Wilts.

I cannot believe Conway  is still pushing that graph. It's really not helpful.

Look at our slope over the past few days. It is nothing like the other ones. That clearly shows that he's set the datum wrongly.

This is a big part of the problem with the UK media. Conway is very good on politics, but he's an English graduate. He's clearly got little idea how to deal with numbers sensibly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dutch Uncle on March 26, 2020, 08:39:21 PM
Here's today's graph. I actually did a "Get the f**k in!" thing with my fist when today's number came out. Not quite on the level of the response when Butler scored at Charlton, but getting there.

It's getting more certain that the early social distancing that most of us started practicising a few weeks ago is paying dividends. Massive big ups to the whole country. Nothing certain yet, but if that's the case, and we don't f**k it up from here, it's looking like we might just get out of the first wave without the NHS reaching breaking point. Got to keep working at it though.



Just got a sinking feeling that Butler's goal was disallowed because during the game they were busy changing the rules about players being active in offside positions :turd:
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 26, 2020, 09:09:35 PM
Dutch.

We are still much closer to the China trend than the W Europe & USA trends if you slide the traces along the time axis sensibly.

Not saying we will necessarily stay there of course.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 26, 2020, 09:11:10 PM
Wilts.

I cannot believe Conway  is still pushing that graph. It's really not helpful.

Look at our slope over the past few days. It is nothing like the other ones. That clearly shows that he's set the datum wrongly.

This is a big part of the problem with the UK media. Conway is very good on politics, but he's an English graduate. He's clearly got little idea how to deal with numbers sensibly.

Just to confirm to people this is the Economics Editor of Sky News Billy is criticising here. I dunno, I just like looking at the graphs - hoping they are going to look like Korea soon
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 26, 2020, 09:11:50 PM
This, by the way, is gobsmacking.

Bergamo is one of the worst hit cities in the world. But the deaths among those under 60 have hardly changed from pre-virus times.

https://mobile.twitter.com/FerdiGiugliano/status/1243142460668350465

(Età means "age" in Italian by the way)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 26, 2020, 09:12:54 PM
Germany has 4 times the number of confirmed cases than the UK but half the mortality rate. Why?

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-why-germany-has-such-a-low-covid-19-death-rate-11964051
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 26, 2020, 09:13:07 PM
Wilts.

I don't care if he's the Count of Monte Cristo, that graph is absolute bobbins. I'd hit the roof if someone in my company presented data like that in a graph like that and sent it out in a report.

It is very, very silly to set the time datum as the date when the number of deaths went through a very small level. Because deaths happen with a degree of randomness and when there are few deaths, they happen at random times. That is a basic flaw in his graph, and he's been (inadvertently) misleading people for a long time with this.

If you set the datum to the day when the deaths go through, say, 100, you are reducing that error due to randomness, and you see a totally different set of trends; ones that are much clearer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 26, 2020, 09:30:23 PM
Germany has 4 times the number of confirmed cases than the UK but half the mortality rate. Why?

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-why-germany-has-such-a-low-covid-19-death-rate-11964051

More testing.?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BigH on March 26, 2020, 09:35:47 PM
Interesting listening for the statistically-minded among us:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/brand:b006qshd/m000gwy8

David Spiegelhalter's explanation of why the Government's original 'let rip' policy was so heavily flawed and why the UK economy will be paying the price for that screw-up for many years to come made me want to weep.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: albie on March 26, 2020, 10:00:31 PM
A note of caution on the UK death rate figures.

My understanding is that the figure given is not the actual number of deaths, but those that have been given consent to be released by the close family.

As we don't know how many are being with-held pending that consent, it makes the accuracy of the trend line difficult to know.

Why would you interrupt the consistency of the longitudinal data?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 26, 2020, 10:44:00 PM
Albie.

Again, I'm quoting Nick Watt of the BBC here and he's already made me look a dick once tonight, but he was responsible for this concept in what he said on Newsnight last night and he was at pains to correct it tonight on R4.

According to him, the family consent is needed ONLY to release detailed information, like age, sex, previous health and location of the deceased. There is no family consent required to release the FACT that someone has died. He said the policy was not to release the fact of a death into the stats until the family had been informed, but that did not cause big delays in reporting, nor prevent the numbers being released.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 26, 2020, 11:15:32 PM
Here's the latest graph.

We are still more or less tracking China. Maybe a bit above, but we are diverging more and more from USA/W. Europe. If the nuns at St Albans in Denaby had been more convincing when they taught us RE, I might be praying that this continues.

The thing is, not to panic as our number per day go up. They are bound to do, but they are rising at about 50-60% of the rates that the deaths per day in Italy, France and Spain were at the same points in their epidemics.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Colin C No.3 on March 26, 2020, 11:24:52 PM
I’m probably going to be lambasted here.

I’m ‘intrigued’ (a description probably totally inappropriate in the current context of this debate) & am truly, desperately trying to follow the graphs & links & quotes as you guys present them on the forum, whilst sat up in bed with my iPad, my better half fast asleep, after having spent yet another glorious day in the garden, painting fences, fixing leaking sheds, planting spring flowers.

But as I paint those fences it gives me time to reflect on this horrendous virus & how it has brought the best & worst out of our society & we are only yet just at ‘it’s’ very margins.

I had my letter delivered Monday telling me I was in the high risk category & should self isolate for the next 12 weeks. I’d already self isolated because part of my medication comprises of immuno suppressants. I’ll gladly self isolate until told otherwis.

So here comes the part where I will undoubtedly rankle some posters.

By all means continue with graphs, equations & quotes (because without doubt they are of value to many), but at the end of the day, whether we come through this without losing a loved one is very much in ‘the lap of the gods’.

No adequate testing kits, not enough ventilators, no proper PPE for our frontline services. We’re reliant on TIME. Time given by those who accept & adhere to social distancing in order that we might BUY the time needed by our NHS to save tens of thousands of lives.

The graphs showing possible/probable mortality rates will change on a day to day basis as another set of facts ‘causes’ curves to peak, drop, plateau.

Some may be more immune than others. I say to myself every day ‘Not you mate’. No one is immune.

Keep safe. Keep well. See you soon at the Keepmoat.


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 26, 2020, 11:26:19 PM
Thoughts on other countries:

Italy is getting there. They have ground down the rate of growth so that the doubling time for deaths is now up to 7 days (it was two days about a fortnight ago). Only China has had the virus really take control, then contain it like that, and we should salute them for what they have managed without having any prior country in Europe to look to. But it's taking its toll. We Skyped my wife's uncle today in Emilia Romagna. He is a rock of a man. He didn't cry when his son was left permanently disabled by a hit and run driver. He didn't cry when his dad died of Alzheimers. He was fighting back the tears tonight. The authorities have been moving bodies from Bergamo to his town for burial because Bergamo is overwhelmed.

Spain might just be starting to bend the curve, but f**k me are they in trouble.

France looked like it was doing better at the weekend, but it's back in Italy territory now.

Germany - too soon to tell. There are signs that they might be breaking below the Spain/Italy/France trend and following us and China. Will be clearer by the end of the weekend.

And USA. Jesus Christ. I;ve posted the wrong data for the past few days. I hadn't spotted that it was still being updated overnight. I've corrected in now and it is terrifying. Four days ago, their deaths trend was mapping us and China. Now they are going above Italy. Since the deaths take 5-10 days to happen after infection, that means that they were coping pretty well until 10-14 days ago, and then it looks like they have lost control. I looked on FlightRadar today. There are still thousnads of flights criss-crossing America. What the f**k are they doing? This is going to be carnage over there, and in a society that has no Western European type safety net when people fall out of the bottom of society. I truly dread what might happen there over the summer. It doesn't bear thinking about.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 27, 2020, 12:12:26 AM
A report in the Guardian estimates that Northern England is approximately two weeks behind London. London is currently being overwhelmed by a "tsunami of cases".

The incubation of this virus seems to be between 5 days and 10 days. This means we in the North are right on the cusp of the widespread infection. There is an opportunity for us to really lockdown now. Stay at home as much as possible now. Wash hands religiously. Keep your distance from others. Wear outdoor clothes and change when you go inside.

 I would urge everyone to take every precaution now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 27, 2020, 12:34:18 AM
Insanity:


President Trump said in a letter to governors today that governments should soon be ranking individual counties across the U.S. as "low, medium or high" risk for coronavirus outbreaks, in what is likely a beginning stage attempt to get the wheels of the American economy turning again.

His letter says:

“My administration is working to publish new guidelines for state and local policymakers to use in making decisions about maintaining, increasing, or relaxing social distancing and other mitigation measures they have put in place.”

....He is actually wanting to lift restrictions before the virus has even really begun to take hold.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 27, 2020, 12:51:06 AM
He is a clear and present danger to the USA. There is a mechanism for removing him, but it needs Republican party grandees to have the balls.

The alternative is 4 million Americans dead this summer and countless left destitute.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Pancho Regan on March 27, 2020, 08:16:37 AM
We are about to see the point when Trump's stupidity stops being funny and becomes truly dangerous.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: rich1471 on March 27, 2020, 08:48:50 AM
I think it has passed that point already, the guy really has lost the plot
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 27, 2020, 11:08:49 AM
A group of doctors have started a crowd funder to raise money for protective equipment. If you would like to contribute, this is the link.

https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/masks4nhsheroes
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 27, 2020, 11:16:38 AM
It will get lost in the ether, but some very positive numbers from Spain announced today. Spain looked worrying for a while, but today's figures offer a glimmer of hope I feel.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ian1980 on March 27, 2020, 11:18:03 AM
Spain has just announced 769 deaths in 24hrs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ian1980 on March 27, 2020, 11:18:26 AM
Boris Johnson tests positive for COVID-19
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 27, 2020, 11:21:46 AM
Boris Johnson tests positive for COVID-19

With any luck Donald Trump will get a right good dose of it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 27, 2020, 11:23:48 AM
Who is 2nd in command in the UK these days? Under Blair you always knew Prescott was there to swing a few punches if needed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Ldr on March 27, 2020, 11:24:05 AM
Raab
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 27, 2020, 11:24:23 AM
Who is 2nd in command in the UK these days? Under Blair you always knew Prescott was there to swing a few punches if needed.

Dominic Raab
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 27, 2020, 11:25:09 AM
Raab

And now the coronacrisis really hits home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 27, 2020, 11:28:39 AM
As much as I dislike Boris Johnson’s politics and what he has done in recent months I wish him no ill whatsoever.

BBC says he has mild symptoms, so maybe he can carry out PM duties whilst self isolating..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 27, 2020, 11:35:28 AM
As much as I dislike Boris Johnson’s politics and what he has done in recent months I wish him no ill whatsoever.

BBC says he has mild symptoms, so maybe he can carry out PM duties whilst self isolating..

It always starts out mild, it depends how it develops. It also seems to depend upon how much exposure you have to it, doctors and health workers seem to be at greater risk of developing severe symptoms.

How old is Johnson?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ian1980 on March 27, 2020, 11:57:14 AM
55
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 27, 2020, 12:08:41 PM
Isn’t his partner pregnant too.?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 27, 2020, 12:17:56 PM
55

Just on the edge of being in a more vulnerable group. Chances are he will get over it quickly though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nudga on March 27, 2020, 12:18:06 PM
Which one?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 27, 2020, 12:37:59 PM
A bit of better news.

Imperial College London's Neil Ferguson - who originally estimated 500,000 deaths in the UK due to Coronavirus, now says that the virus will peak in just two or three weeks, and that UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, according to NewScientist.

 And - over 1/2 of those it will kill would have died by the end of the year anyway because they were so old and sick.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: big fat yorkshire pudding on March 27, 2020, 01:18:52 PM
A bit of better news.

Imperial College London's Neil Ferguson - who originally estimated 500,000 deaths in the UK due to Coronavirus, now says that the virus will peak in just two or three weeks, and that UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, according to NewScientist.

 And - over 1/2 of those it will kill would have died by the end of the year anyway because they were so old and sick.



That's alright then.....

It's all an estimate though isn't it. Realistically we don't as yet have a massive widespread transmission outside of some of the major cities, if we get to a point we have hundreds/thousands in places like Doncaster with it then we'll know how bad it really is.  Every person will react differently.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 27, 2020, 01:37:47 PM
It is better news than ten days ago

It is an estimate but as time goes by, data and knowledge increase and the estimates become more accurate. Strangely enough they think the virus has been spreading More quickly than they realised, meaning more people have already had it and recovered from it, meaning proportionately there are fewer critical cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ian1980 on March 27, 2020, 01:52:07 PM
I suspect quite a lot of people will have had it and brushed it off as feeling under the weather or just thought they had picked up a cold or flu
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: silent majority on March 27, 2020, 01:55:38 PM
An interesting development here.

Not only can the app give current information but has the ability to give historical information.

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/uk-coronavirus-spread-app-phone-data

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: GazLaz on March 27, 2020, 02:18:48 PM
181 deaths today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 27, 2020, 02:25:43 PM
181 deaths today.

Surely a stricter lockdown needs to be enforced
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 27, 2020, 02:27:20 PM
Won’t the deaths this week be from virus spread before the stricter lockdown came into force.?

I would think there would be a lag of two weeks at least before we see the real effects.?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: big fat yorkshire pudding on March 27, 2020, 02:29:27 PM
Won’t the deaths this week be from virus spread before the stricter lockdown came into force.?

I would think there would be a lag of two weeks at least before we see the real effects.?

Exactly that given how it progresses.  Certainly continuing to grow with a big increase in deaths there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 27, 2020, 02:38:59 PM
Big disappointment, that figure. That's around the number of deaths per day that Italy, France and Spain had when they went through 6-700 total deaths. If the increase of the past few days keeps up,we are leaving the China trend and moving back towards the Western Europe trend.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 27, 2020, 02:42:21 PM
The important thing is the trend. We'll have bad days and good days (less bad days).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 27, 2020, 03:11:12 PM
Absolutely correct about the ups and downs CiM, but it's the trend that is worrying me.

Middle of last week, our doubling time was 2 days. By the start of this week, we'd got that up to about 4 days. Last few days, it's drifted back towards 2 days.

That happened in France a week or so earlier. They looked like they'd bent the curve earlier than Italy. Now they are right back on the Italy trend. The worry is that we seem to be heading in the same direction since early this week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 27, 2020, 03:21:26 PM
Absolutely correct about the ups and downs CiM, but it's the trend that is worrying me.

Middle of last week, our doubling time was 2 days. By the start of this week, we'd got that up to about 4 days. Last few days, it's drifted back towards 2 days.

That happened in France a week or so earlier. They looked like they'd bent the curve earlier than Italy. Now they are right back on the Italy trend. The worry is that we seem to be heading in the same direction since early this week.

And we have all those out last Sunday having a nice old jolly to filter into the figures yet
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: IDM on March 27, 2020, 03:25:07 PM
Absolutely correct about the ups and downs CiM, but it's the trend that is worrying me.

Middle of last week, our doubling time was 2 days. By the start of this week, we'd got that up to about 4 days. Last few days, it's drifted back towards 2 days.

That happened in France a week or so earlier. They looked like they'd bent the curve earlier than Italy. Now they are right back on the Italy trend. The worry is that we seem to be heading in the same direction since early this week.

How does the trend look if you plot the results as a 3 point average.?

Forgive me if that’s the wrong statistics terminology.!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: scawsby steve on March 27, 2020, 03:30:56 PM
As much as I dislike Boris Johnson’s politics and what he has done in recent months I wish him no ill whatsoever.

BBC says he has mild symptoms, so maybe he can carry out PM duties whilst self isolating..

It's no good talking like that on here IDM. Some posters will use any tragedy to score political brownie points, and have a deep, personal, pathological hatred towards certain individuals in politics.

Utterly despicable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: DonnyOsmond on March 27, 2020, 04:05:42 PM
181 deaths today.

Surely a stricter lockdown needs to be enforced

It would take 2/3 week to take much affect from the lockdown but in a way I do agree as you still see too many people walking down the road.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: scawsby steve on March 27, 2020, 04:12:41 PM
181 deaths today.

Surely a stricter lockdown needs to be enforced

It would take 2/3 week to take much affect from the lockdown but in a way I do agree as you still see too many people walking down the road.

People need to take excercise DO, as a failure to do so can can also impact on health. As long as they're on their own, it won't make any difference as the virus apparently isn't airborne.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 27, 2020, 04:14:27 PM
Christ Almighty.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/489774-birx-cautions-against-inaccurate-models-predicting-signficant-coronavirus?amp#click=https://t.co/OtDl9QHEcS

This is the expert Trump has put in charge of the CV-19 response, utterly misrepresenting the Imperial College modelling.

They categorically did NOT say that t
their prediction of the number of deaths was somehow magically reduced from 500,000 to 20,000 because the modelling wasn't precise. The first figure is the "do nothing" baseline case. The second is the "hard lockdown for a long time" case.

This is appalling stuff to be saying to a country that is staring at a catastrophe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bristol Red Rover on March 27, 2020, 04:18:40 PM
Meanwhile in Iceland, where testing is per capita the highest in the world, it appears 50% of people are totally asymptomatic. That's in the realm of what has been thought by anyone with a real grip on this, and backs up other testing results that have been more questionable.

https://www.zmescience.com/medicine/iceland-testing-covid-19-0523/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: selby on March 27, 2020, 04:36:14 PM
  Steve, people wishing ill of Johnson want to be careful, they will not get a vote for a conservative leader and might get a proper Tory like Rees Mogg.
  There again they will be used to losing votes, and not getting what they want by now.
   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 27, 2020, 04:50:52 PM
BRR.

That's exactly the figure found on the Diamond Princess.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 27, 2020, 04:51:18 PM
  Steve, people wishing ill of Johnson want to be careful, they will not get a vote for a conservative leader and might get a proper Tory like Rees Mogg.
  There again they will be used to losing votes, and not getting what they want by now.
   

Can’t see anyone wishing ill of him, you are seeing something that isn’t there
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: adamtherover on March 27, 2020, 04:51:29 PM
Large figures being released for the last 24 hrs in the UK :-(

Just shy of 3k new cases with 181 deaths.  So 14.5k cases (tested), it only seems 3 or 4 days ago it was at 6k cases? 

Have we now reached the point where large numbers are starting to snowball?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 27, 2020, 04:52:50 PM
  Steve, people wishing ill of Johnson want to be careful, they will not get a vote for a conservative leader and might get a proper Tory like Rees Mogg.
  There again they will be used to losing votes, and not getting what they want by now.
   

What in God's name are you talking about?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ian1980 on March 27, 2020, 04:55:43 PM
Last 24hrs

UK deaths = 185
Italy deaths = 919 (chuffing hell)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 27, 2020, 04:56:18 PM
Only a 5.5% increase in Italy in terms of cases. 11% increase in deaths (following almost exactly the pattern of the last 6 days).

Promosing again on both fronts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Donnywolf on March 27, 2020, 05:00:54 PM
Raab

And now the coronacrisis really hits home.

Someone says he will be good - I say Pigs might fly - which is apt as his name in anagram form is ........................midair bacon.


You couldnt make it up UNLIKE him
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: big fat yorkshire pudding on March 27, 2020, 05:14:58 PM
Anyone who thinks this is a simple disease should think about why the government is opening additional hospital room in cities and a temp morgue for 13000.  That's scary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: RedRover45 on March 27, 2020, 05:58:52 PM
They are also apparently opening up the hangers at Birmingham airport as a temporary morgue if necessary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 27, 2020, 05:59:37 PM
Really crunch time coming up for the future of the Euro.

Listen out for the word Coronabond.

The fundamental failure of the Euro structure, was to have monetary union without fiscal union. In other words, they all shared the same monetary policy and all had the same exchange rate and interest rate. But each country is responsible for its own debt.

That is an economically illogical position and led to the Euro crisis in 2011.

The impending debt levels for all countries will make the problems of 10 years ago look like a minor blip.

If Europe doesn't mutualism the debt, struggling countries like Italy, Greece and Spain will not have any chance whatsoever to survive economically. If Germany insists on the sort of austerity they imposed on Greece in 2011-2, they WILL destroy the Euro and probably the EU.

So it is a very worrying sign that Germany, Holland, Austria and Finland yesterday categorically refused to consider the concept of Coronabonds, which would mean the ECB underwriting countries' ability to borrow.

Big choice for Germany now. It can pull Europe together. Or it can destroy it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bristol Red Rover on March 27, 2020, 06:12:54 PM
More from Iceland - don't think I've seen it here, apologies if so.

They found 40 mutations of covid, that's just in Iceland. Good luck with that vaccine exit strategy routine.

Near the bottom here.
https://english.alarabiya.net/en/features/2020/03/25/Coronavirus-Iceland-s-mass-testing-finds-half-of-carriers-show-no-symptoms
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bristol Red Rover on March 27, 2020, 06:23:03 PM
So that's 2 hospitals near Brum, one London way, just 37 to go and Johnson has hit his target. Plus all the extra nurses employed already. Vigilante gangs to help the police on the streets. He's even surpassed Labours idea of a 30 hour week in the main. All praise!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 27, 2020, 06:39:05 PM
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/

Good resource. Shows exponetial growth and when and which countries have managed to divert from that path. (BST has got compteition here)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 27, 2020, 06:55:53 PM
To be pedantic, since it is a landmass they can't destroy Europe but they could destroy the EU.

If they chose to go the whole hog and underwrite the debt of the South then for me the EU takes a big step into becoming a united nation state.

The big question mark for me is how secure are the banks in the EU and the UK. If a big institution gets into trouble and needs a bailout will the UK contribute? And if a big UK bank needs bailing out will it now all fall on the UK taxpayer?

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 27, 2020, 07:00:04 PM
More from Iceland - don't think I've seen it here, apologies if so.

They found 40 mutations of covid, that's just in Iceland. Good luck with that vaccine exit strategy routine.

Near the bottom here.
https://english.alarabiya.net/en/features/2020/03/25/Coronavirus-Iceland-s-mass-testing-finds-half-of-carriers-show-no-symptoms

Just to clear this up, if you contact one of these strains of virus will that give you some resistance to the other varieties of the virus? As I understand it, the chances of becoming infected twice are remote. Is that correct?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bristol Red Rover on March 27, 2020, 07:10:38 PM
More from Iceland - don't think I've seen it here, apologies if so.

They found 40 mutations of covid, that's just in Iceland. Good luck with that vaccine exit strategy routine.

Near the bottom here.
https://english.alarabiya.net/en/features/2020/03/25/Coronavirus-Iceland-s-mass-testing-finds-half-of-carriers-show-no-symptoms

Just to clear this up, if you contact one of these strains of virus will that give you some resistance to the other varieties of the virus? As I understand it, the chances of becoming infected twice are remote. Is that correct?

I'm far from an expert, but as far as I understand, as it's a new virus we can only guess at present based on what happens with other viruses. Yes, a resistance shoulld be there to all versions once you've been infected with one. That may be an "immunity" type situation where you're barely show any symptoms if any, or it may be a "resistance" where you will have a milder immune system reaction than you would otherwise have.

So far it seems second infection responses have been in a similar order as with similar viruses, ie VERY VERY low. Usually there's other problems going on that cause that, but it can be somewhat random too.

As to how long that immunity, or the resistance, will last, we don't know, but likely to be long enough at least to have a significant effect on stopping the spread of corona. Despite criticism of the govs mention of herd immunity at the very early stage (lots of misunderstandings all round -  a long story), IMO the long term end of this is likely to be exactly that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 27, 2020, 07:21:53 PM
I imagine that's what ultimately happened with Spanish Flu.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 27, 2020, 07:31:26 PM
Without a vaccine, its the only end.

We will reach a point where the virus can not find a viable host and slowly dies out. A critical mass of us need to become infected with it sooner rather than later. Maybe some folks out there are getting information fatigue because this was fairly well-established by the experts from the start. Where our government got confused was somehow thinking that we needed to accept this in a short timeframe, putting our critical healthcare faciltiies at serious risk.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 27, 2020, 07:40:45 PM
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/

Good resource. Shows exponetial growth and when and which countries have managed to divert from that path. (BST has got compteition here)

Now THAT is a graphic. Really shows the effect of lockdown.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BigH on March 27, 2020, 08:36:09 PM
Without a vaccine, its the only end.

We will reach a point where the virus can not find a viable host and slowly dies out. A critical mass of us need to become infected with it sooner rather than later. Maybe some folks out there are getting information fatigue because this was fairly well-established by the experts from the start. Where our government got confused was somehow thinking that we needed to accept this in a short timeframe, putting our critical healthcare faciltiies at serious risk.
Totally agree Copps.

Except I think you're being extremely generous to a bunch of inveterate chancers who thought they could watch the whole thing play out in a matter of weeks or months.

Not so much 'confused' as 'negligent'.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 27, 2020, 08:38:32 PM
  Steve, people wishing ill of Johnson want to be careful, they will not get a vote for a conservative leader and might get a proper Tory like Rees Mogg.
  There again they will be used to losing votes, and not getting what they want by now.
   

Can’t see anyone wishing ill of him, you are seeing something that isn’t there

There's a whole cohort that see things that are not there Filo and yet fail to see stuff right in front of their noses.  :lol:
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Bristol Red Rover on March 27, 2020, 09:04:35 PM
Without a vaccine, its the only end.

We will reach a point where the virus can not find a viable host and slowly dies out. A critical mass of us need to become infected with it sooner rather than later. Maybe some folks out there are getting information fatigue because this was fairly well-established by the experts from the start. Where our government got confused was somehow thinking that we needed to accept this in a short timeframe, putting our critical healthcare faciltiies at serious risk.

Yup, exactly. Short time frame option was madness, so "critical mass of us need to become infected with it sooner rather than later." - soon, but not too soon!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 27, 2020, 10:05:05 PM
Apologies if this has been posted before  :)

Trump is trying to stop people from seeing this ad on his response to coronavirus

Lawyers have sent cease and desist letters to stop stations from airing the video, which edits together Trump’s statements downplaying the crisis

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/donald-trump-coronavirus-response-us-advertisement
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: tyke1962 on March 27, 2020, 10:51:41 PM
Apologies if this has been posted before  :)

Trump is trying to stop people from seeing this ad on his response to coronavirus

Lawyers have sent cease and desist letters to stop stations from airing the video, which edits together Trump’s statements downplaying the crisis

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/donald-trump-coronavirus-response-us-advertisement

My opinion is this Sydney , Trump is toast at the American Election , absolute toast even considering the Americans are even more incredibly stupid than our working class tories .

Let me make this perfectly clear before I add to this post , this sincerely isn't how I wanted things to be given the circumstances and the crisis we face .

However .

Society will change because of this pandemic as it did in 1945 and Churchill was routed at the GE .

It takes events such as we are experiencing right now to wake the country up and realise the path that's been historically taken amounts to shyte if the truth be told .

The shrinking of the state which the Tories own doesn't stack up .

The let's leave it to the market doesn't stack up , oh aye so why are Virgin Airways wanting a government bail out ?

Why did the banks collapse in 2008 ?

And yet when the shyte hits the fan and the market haven't the answers who is it they look to and save the day ? .

If Labour elect the credible candidate which isn't to say he's exactly my man they will absolutely romp home in four years time with a landslide victory .

The electorate do not like the crisis PM , historical fact .





Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 27, 2020, 11:12:30 PM
I agree that Trump is likely to be eviscerated in November (*).

There are only two options for America for the rest of the year.

1) 50,000 deaths in the first wave plus a lockdown that runs into late summer or early autumn, in a country that has very little in the way of a welfare state, with unemployment probably tripling or more.

2) No extended lockdown (which is what the Trump team seem to be pushing towards) in which case they'll have 2-4million deaths this summer.

No sitting leader survives either of those scenarios. Even if he'd played a blinder in dealing with the virus (as Brown did in dealing with the consequences of the GFC) a leader is still held responsible.

And yes, I know Trump's approval ratings has rocketed so far. There is always a rallying around the flag and the leader in the intial stages of a crisis. It's when that crisis becomes an ongoing grinding disaster that the support slips away.

(*)  That is, assuming the election happens in November. If Trump's approval figures start slipping in May/June, I guarantee you he will try to have the election postponed. THEN we will see how strong American democracy is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: selby on March 27, 2020, 11:13:57 PM
 According to a Gallup poll out today in the states, Donald Trumps presidency and his policies have the highest approval he has ever had of 49% of the electorate.
  And his handling of the Covid 19 crisis has seen him gain in the last week a 5% approval in the so called independent vote not aligned to any of the two parties.
  If that carries on the toaster will not switch on Tyke.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 27, 2020, 11:30:48 PM
What's your take on the polls selby, why do they defy commonsense is Tyke correct saying "the Americans are even more incredibly stupid than our working class tories'' or are there other reasons?

Myself I can/could see why a small proportion of the vote could swing one way or another at election time in any country but to continually have voters sticking needles in their own eyes is baffling, even though opposition parties make mistakes.


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 28, 2020, 12:14:15 AM
By the way. Those of you still supporting Trump.

Michigan and Washington are two of the 5 worst hit states by CV-19.

Trump has had a press conference today, where he says he's told his federal CV team not to call the Governors of those two states because they don't treat him right.

https://mobile.twitter.com/PodSaveAmerica/status/1243669716872253440

Every single time you think you have found the base level of his depravity...

It genuinely is like listening to Don Corleone. You don't respect me? I don't help you when you come begging to me.

Fine for a mafia boss. But this is the f**king President of America.

And I suspect folk will just shrug their shoulders and ignore it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 28, 2020, 03:20:53 AM
Apologies if this government has been criticised before or I have criticised this government but fmd don't they deserve it?  :)


''Documents show that officials working under former health secretary Jeremy Hunt told medical advisers three years ago to “reconsider” a formal recommendation that eye protection should be provided to all healthcare professionals who have close contact with pandemic influenza patients.

The expert advice was watered down after an “economic assessment” found a medical recommendation about providing visors or safety glasses to all hospital, ambulance and social care staff who have close contact with pandemic influenza patients would “substantially increase” the costs of stockpiling''

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/advice-on-protective-gear-for-nhs-staff-was-rejected-owing-to-cost
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 28, 2020, 07:57:12 AM
That's correct sydney.

They could give £14m to a ferry company that didn't have any ferries but not afford protective equipment for the NHS in case a pandemic broke out. How did that work out?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Donnywolf on March 28, 2020, 08:23:38 AM
In fact Wilts - we probably wont ever know the true "Ferry" cost but just putting in Grayling Ferries on Google came up with this at (a minimum of) 50 Million quid

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/may/01/chris-grayling-cancels-ferry-contracts-at-extra-50m-cost-to-taxpayers-brexit

I cant be a***d to read it as I dont want my blood to boil but I would love to know the "estimated" costs for doing nothing but FAIL
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 28, 2020, 08:41:09 AM
Have a think about joining in with this. Even if you're perfectly fit and well.

https://covid.joinzoe.com/

In the absence of mass testing, self-reporting might be the best we can do to get an idea of how many people have CV-19 and where the hotspots are.

We desperately need that info to help tweak the models, and decide where the hard lockdowns and releases should be.

If we get a good handle on that, it WILL allow us to make decisions that WILL save thousands of lives, billions of pounds and millions of person-days on lockdown.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SydneyRover on March 28, 2020, 08:50:54 AM
It looks like there is more direction and help at VSC than from the government  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: tyke1962 on March 28, 2020, 10:34:24 AM
According to a Gallup poll out today in the states, Donald Trumps presidency and his policies have the highest approval he has ever had of 49% of the electorate.
  And his handling of the Covid 19 crisis has seen him gain in the last week a 5% approval in the so called independent vote not aligned to any of the two parties.
  If that carries on the toaster will not switch on Tyke.


Even Corbyn cut a 20 point opinion poll deficit down to absolutely nothing in 2017 Selby in a matter of weeks .

I wouldn't be giving the American opinion polls too much credence with what's coming down the road for their population over the coming months .
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 28, 2020, 10:49:19 AM
Wow.

The editor of The Lancet is really laying into the CMO, CSA and Chief Exec of the NHS here.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30727-3/fulltext
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 28, 2020, 11:34:48 AM
If you read that in conjunction with the Sunday Times piece from last weekend you can only conclude that when the government say they are following the scientific advice from experts - this means they are only following the scientific advice of experts that Dominic Cummings believes in.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 28, 2020, 11:40:43 AM
If you read that in conjunction with the Sunday Times piece from last weekend you can only conclude that when the government say they are following the scientific advice from experts - this means they are only following the scientific advice of experts that Dominic Cummings believes in.

Yes Dominic Cummings, the man that was pushing for the herd immunity strategy, scuttling out of Downing Street as fast as he could when it was announced that Boris had it, I guess herd immunity does not apply to him then?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 28, 2020, 11:50:14 AM
If you read that in conjunction with the Sunday Times piece from last weekend you can only conclude that when the government say they are following the scientific advice from experts - this means they are only following the scientific advice of experts that Dominic Cummings believes in.

That's been pretty much what I've been wondering.

It appears that the CSA, Ballance, was a big pusher of the HI idea. There were very, very few other scientific experts who gave that idea the time of day. But Cummings latched onto it, and that appears to have been Govt policy up to about 10 March.

There are some enormous questions to answer when this is over.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: adamtherover on March 28, 2020, 12:09:23 PM
Reading the basic theory on HI, it suggests that the herd has to rely on a good percentage to have natural immunity, or have been vaccinated?   
As none of this has happened or been proven, can any of the more scientifically minded folk on here explain why the government appeared at first to be pushing HI?
I suppose the next generation possibly might benefit, if a parent got.CV19, and developed anti bodies, which was then passed onto a child, but it seems to put the first wave at risk?
If I have missed anything obvious i am more then open to have it explained in laymans terms?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: River Don on March 28, 2020, 12:22:46 PM
Here's a thought.

Foot and mouth disease is a highly contageuos virus. When there is an outbreak of foot and mouth, they demand farmers and vets disinfect footwear, they walk through trays of disinfectant. They even disinfect tyres of vehicles...

So wouldn't it be an idea to put disinfectant washes for people to walk through at the entrance to supermarkets? Or would that have little benefit?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Copps is Magic on March 28, 2020, 12:23:56 PM
Here's a thought.

Foot and mouth disease is a highly contageuos virus. When there is an outbreak of foo and mouth, they demand farmers and vets disinfect footwear, they walk through trays of disinfectant. They even disinfect tyres of vehicles...

So wouldn't it be an idea to put disinfectant washes for people to walk through at the entrance to supermarkets? Or would that have little benefit?

Its already in operation here. Can't enter supermarkets without disinfecting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 28, 2020, 12:49:16 PM
Here's a thought.

Foot and mouth disease is a highly contageuos virus. When there is an outbreak of foot and mouth, they demand farmers and vets disinfect footwear, they walk through trays of disinfectant. They even disinfect tyres of vehicles...

So wouldn't it be an idea to put disinfectant washes for people to walk through at the entrance to supermarkets? Or would that have little benefit?

They also slaughter all infected cattle 🤪
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 28, 2020, 01:09:52 PM
Adam

I have no idea how the concept of HI could possibly have been thought of as a primary policy unless those making that policy were effectively accepting that we would have a spike in cases that would utterly overwhelm the NHS for several weeks. That's why I reacted with incredulity two weeks back when Albie first pointed out on here that HI was Govt policy.

I say that as someone who has no epidemiology background, but as someone who is comfortable dealing with numbers and drawing conclusions.

I heard back in mid-Feb, Neil Ferguson from Imperial College, saying that in the absence of drastic measures, he expected this infection to double every 5 days or so, to kill 1% of those it affected and to cause critical but treatable illness in maybe 5%. And although he didn't use the term HI, he alluded to it by saying he'd expect the epidemic to infect 40-80% of us (i.e. it wouldn't be able to spread more widely than that because we'd have HI by then).

With those numbers, it was relatively easy to see that, if that 5 day doubling wasn't stopped, the NHS would be utterly overwhelmed by critical illness cases by mid-April. Ferguson said he estimated we had several 100 actual cases in mid-Feb. With a 5 day doubling time, that becomes maybe a million by mid-April. 5% of those being critical is 50,000. But we only have 5000 ventilator ICU beds.


By mid May, unchecked,  there might be half the population infected, maybe 1million needing ICU treatment -  200 times more people needing critical care than we had beds for.

At that time, a policy of soft mitigation (hand washing, distancing) was all that Govt was pushing. I'd assumed they were getting advice that this would be enough to massively increase the 5 day doubling time and "flatten the peak".

Turns out that was bullshit. It was never remotely possibly to flatten the peak sufficiently without the sort of lockdown we now have. HI as a policy was effectively accepting that 50-60% of us would get infected over the next few weeks.

That means that the policy of HI was implicitly accepting that we would have half a million deaths from CV-19 in May-June and a non-functioning NHS from April-Aug leading to God knows how many other avoidable deaths.

Back in early March, I hadn't fully realised there was an alternative. I thought we maybe had to face that because the economic effect of a huge shutdown would be worse. I didn't have the economic knowledge to take in the fact that we actually DO have mechanisms to deal with the effects of a lockdown. So there always WAS an alternative. It's just that, from late Jan to early March, the Govt was choosing not to follow the alternative, and was having a policy of (in the reported words of Dominic Cummings from late Feb) "protecting the economy first and if a few pensioners die, too bad".

That approach cost us six weeks of prep. And, quite incredibly, while Govt policy was to accept the NHS being overwhelmed, no one was lifting a f**king finger to bring in more PPE for NHS staff.

Like I say, we are where we are now. But there is a f**king huge inquest to be had when this is over.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: adamtherover on March 28, 2020, 01:31:58 PM
Adam

I have no idea how the concept of HI could possibly have been thought of as a primary policy unless those making that policy were effectively accepting that we would have a spike in cases that would utterly overwhelm the NHS for several weeks. That's why I reacted with incredulity two weeks back when Albie first pointed out on here that HI was Govt policy.

I say that as someone who has no epidemiology background, but as someone who is comfortable dealing with numbers and drawing conclusions.

I heard back in mid-Feb, Neil Ferguson from Imperial College, saying that in the absence of drastic measures, he expected this infection to double every 5 days or so, to kill 1% of those it affected and to cause critical but treatable illness in maybe 5%. And although he didn't use the term HI, he alluded to it by saying he'd expect the epidemic to infect 40-80% of us (i.e. it wouldn't be able to spread more widely than that because we'd have HI by then).

With those numbers, it was relatively easy to see that, if that 5 day doubling wasn't stopped, the NHS would be utterly overwhelmed by critical illness cases by mid-April. Ferguson said he estimated we had several 100 actual cases in mid-Feb. With a 5 day doubling time, that becomes maybe a million by mid-April. 5% of those being critical is 50,000. But we only have 5000 ventilator ICU beds.


By mid May, unchecked,  there might be half the population infected, maybe 1million needing ICU treatment -  200 times more people needing critical care than we had beds for.

At that time, a policy of soft mitigation (hand washing, distancing) was all that Govt was pushing. I'd assumed they were getting advice that this would be enough to massively increase the 5 day doubling time and "flatten the peak".

Turns out that was bullshit. It was never remotely possibly to flatten the peak sufficiently without the sort of lockdown we now have. HI as a policy was effectively accepting that 50-60% of us would get infected over the next few weeks.

That means that the policy of HI was implicitly accepting that we would have half a million deaths from CV-19 in May-June and a non-functioning NHS from April-Aug leading to God knows how many other avoidable deaths.

Back in early March, I hadn't fully realised there was an alternative. I thought we maybe had to face that because the economic effect of a huge shutdown would be worse. I didn't have the economic knowledge to take in the fact that we actually DO have mechanisms to deal with the effects of a lockdown. So there always WAS an alternative. It's just that, from late Jan to early March, the Govt was choosing not to follow the alternative, and was having a policy of (in the reported words of Dominic Cummings from late Feb) "protecting the economy first and if a few pensioners die, too bad".

That approach cost us six weeks of prep. And, quite incredibly, while Govt policy was to accept the NHS being overwhelmed, no one was lifting a f**king finger to bring in more PPE for NHS staff.

Like I say, we are where we are now. But there is a f**king huge inquest to be had when this is over.
thanks for that bst,  more or less what I thought.
From day one ive been a supporter of "I know theres.a.big problem, but lets.not look at the worst case scenario as surely.the governemnt would implement plans to stop the apocalypse!"

Maybe I had too much faith in our elected leaders?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 28, 2020, 02:13:37 PM
260 deaths in last 24 hours
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 28, 2020, 02:33:24 PM
Adam

This has been my worry all along.

Dominic Cummings is a dangerous megalomaniac. He is utterly convinced that he knows more than anyone else in Whitehall. And he has a decade long track record of getting seduced by the latest simplified scientific idea he has read about. I've been reading his blog for years. It is terrifying and I'd hoped all this time that he got nowhere remotely close to being in charge. But here we are now, with him making the decisions.

Johnson is renown for being lazy and bored by detail. He's brought Cummings in to do the thinking for him.

This is looking more and more like February was the sort of disaster that was all too predictable with those two in charge.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 28, 2020, 02:33:50 PM
260 deaths in last 24 hours

f**k. That's not good. We are clearly off the China trend now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Filo on March 28, 2020, 02:44:03 PM
260 deaths in last 24 hours

f**k. That's not good. We are clearly off the China trend now.
Wheres  our strong leadership, the lockdown needs enforcing by police and army now, if not out of hand already, its getting there at an alarming rate. In a wierd sort of way I’m glad my parents are no longer here to go through this
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ian1980 on March 28, 2020, 02:49:50 PM
This is still the result of people’s behaviour from last week, when some people thought it a good idea to get one more piss up in before the restrictions and generally not following the advice.

I’ve popped to the supermarket earlier and it appears the message might finally be getting through, the trouble is there is about a weeks lag before the effects of the restrictions start to have an impact
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 28, 2020, 02:52:28 PM
Met police currently have a 30% sick rate.

Sproty posted the figures a while back. There are not enough police/army in the country to lockdown London never mind the whole country - not that they matter when you still have buses/trains running & non-essential businesses such as building sites & call-centres still open.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wilts rover on March 28, 2020, 02:54:23 PM
This is still the result of people’s behaviour from last week, when some people thought it a good idea to get one more piss up in before the restrictions and generally not following the advice.

I’ve popped to the supermarket earlier and it appears the message might finally be getting through, the trouble is there is about a weeks lag before the effects of the restrictions start to have an impact

It takes 7 days for the symptoms to show and then another 7 for them to be fatal. These are people who became ill a fortnight ago - when schools were still open and just after Cheltenham.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ian1980 on March 28, 2020, 03:01:24 PM
Argh right.

So we’ve probably got another week at least of high increases then before we can hope to see the restrictions taking effect. Not going to be a great week ahead then
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: adamtherover on March 28, 2020, 03:02:26 PM
260 deaths in last 24 hours

f**k. That's not good. We are clearly off the China trend now.
Wheres  our strong leadership, the lockdown needs enforcing by police and army now, if not out of hand already, its getting there at an alarming rate. In a wierd sort of way I’m glad my parents are no longer here to go through this
just been for my daily walk, streets were deserted!!!  Some folk are listening.... :-)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BillyStubbsTears on March 28, 2020, 03:07:48 PM
Argh right.

So we’ve probably got another week at least of high increases then before we can hope to see the restrictions taking effect. Not going to be a great week ahead then

The worry is that our time for deaths to double is going UP, not down.

5-10 days ago, the doubling time was every 3.5-4 days.

Over the past week it has been 2.5-3 days.

Every other country barring the USA has managed to keep the doubling time increasing. The fact that ours has reduced markedly is a very big worry.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: big fat yorkshire pudding on March 28, 2020, 03:15:39 PM