Viking Supporters Co-operative
Viking Chat => Off Topic => Topic started by: Warwickshire Red on March 06, 2020, 10:11:42 pm
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Coronavirus: Man in 80s is second person to die of virus in UK https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51771815
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What's your point?
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In a nut shell...
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There was a death in DRI tonight(wasn’t cornovirus for those who are reading the Daily Fail), I’d better not go out tomorrow!!!!!
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Funny.
I thought what made it so dangerous was the fact that we have no natural immunity to it, and it appears to kill 1% of the people it infects. But you fill your boots making light of it.
Come back in the autumn and see how hilarious it has been with hindsight.
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Funny.
I thought what made it so dangerous was the fact that we have no natural immunity to it, and it appears to kill 1% of the people it infects. But you fill your boots making light of it.
Come back in the autumn and see how hilarious it has been with hindsight.
Over 600 people a year die from flu in the UK. Perspective. But go panic buy your bog roll because the mirror says we're all doomed
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Funny.
I thought what made it so dangerous was the fact that we have no natural immunity to it, and it appears to kill 1% of the people it infects. But you fill your boots making light of it.
Come back in the autumn and see how hilarious it has been with hindsight.
Over 600 people a year die from flu in the UK. Perspective. But go panic buy your bog roll because the mirror says we're all doomed
its actually 6600 over the last 12 months, 18 a day!!, every day, usually old people with underlying health issues. Sound familiar? But no one panic buying over that?
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Perception of risk is a very personal thing which rarely reflects the statistics. Sadly, the media are once again whippping up a frenzy in an effort to sell their rags/maintain audience. And cue the hate crimes against Chinese businesses. It’s about time Murdoch and the other bas**rds were held accountable.
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Funny.
I thought what made it so dangerous was the fact that we have no natural immunity to it, and it appears to kill 1% of the people it infects. But you fill your boots making light of it.
Come back in the autumn and see how hilarious it has been with hindsight.
Over 600 people a year die from flu in the UK. Perspective. But go panic buy your bog roll because the mirror says we're all doomed
its actually 6600 over the last 12 months, 18 a day!!, every day, usually old people with underlying health issues. Sound familiar? But no one panic buying over that?
It's very simple. When this thing peaks, we'll be very lucky if there are only that many people (6600) dying every DAY for a two or three weeks.
I just don't understand this flippancy that some people insist on having about this issue. If we don't take steps NOW to stop this thing spreading, that peak is coming in just a few weeks.
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People need to put all this in perspective
One of my colleagues is away in Tenerife for a week and managers are talking about not letting him back in the building for two week
Absolute overkill
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Just stop and think.
If this thing wasn't such a big deal, why do you think China has basically shut the country down to control it?
You reckon the papers spooked them over there?
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Just stop and think.
If this thing wasn't such a big deal, why do you think China has basically shut the country down to control it?
You reckon the papers spooked them over there?
its.not that shut down, you can get flights in and out of the country!
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Internal travel stopped between major cities.
Schools and universities closed.
Fewer than 50% of people at places of work.
Air pollution figures dropped off the bottom of the chart.
People kept in their houses under threat of arrest.
And you reckon us considering cancelling a few football games is massive overkill, but their response is proportionate?
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The two people who had it in York a few weeks back had been going about their daily business for days before they got diagnosed, yet nobody else has caught this virus.
It’s nonsense to suggest hundreds of thousands of people are going to die,
If it was as serious as that the Cheltenham festival for one wouldn’t be going ahead, well over 500k people there mingling.
It wouldn’t be happening
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It’s all ok because we’ve got Matt Hancock looking after us........erm.....oh f**k
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I played golf yesterday.
The member of the course I played at told me that some other members have been on a weeks golfing break in Thailand and those people have been told not to go to the golf club for three weeks now that they are back.
None of the blokes have any health issues or symptoms of the virus.
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Indoor events, trade exhibitions etc all over Europe are being postponed left right and centre.
BST - are the size of the spread and death rates being discussed assuming no further precautions are taken, ie do nothing and let nature take its cause.? Or are they worst case scenario figures even accounting for preventative measures.?
Is there a forecast based on assumptions of certain precautions.?
I don’t expect you to know, but just a thought.
BBC breakfast this morning commented that many people recover from corornavirus, but that doesn’t get reported for “obvious reasons”.??
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The two people who had it in York a few weeks back had been going about their daily business for days before they got diagnosed, yet nobody else has caught this virus.
It’s nonsense to suggest hundreds of thousands of people are going to die,
If it was as serious as that the Cheltenham festival for one wouldn’t be going ahead, well over 500k people there mingling.
It wouldn’t be happening
On the one hand, we have professors of epidemiology talking about 10s of millions of people in the UK catching this virus and a death rate of 1%.
On the other, you have the man who, a couple of weeks ago reckoned Peterborough had nailed down an automatic promotion slot saying that is nonsense.
Choices, choices...who to believe?
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I played golf yesterday.
The member of the course I played at told me that some other members have been on a weeks golfing break in Thailand and those people have been told not to go to the golf club for three weeks now that they are back.
None of the blokes have any health issues or symptoms of the virus.
Not yet.. there is an incubation period for the virus, and it could be passed on before anyone feels ill..
If someone has traveled from a “hot spot” then precautionary measures are understandable. Not playing golf for a few weeks is hardly a big issue.
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IDM.
The exact final number of infected cases is very difficult to predict. But we do know that we have no natural immunity, so every one of us is highly susceptible to coming down with this if we do come into contact with it. And the growth rates of infection do appear very aggressive. Epidemiologists talk about typical epidemics having doubling rates of 5 days. In the UK at the moment (and it's small numbers so you can't take this as Gospel) the number of cases are doubling every 2 days. Even in Italy, where they've taken big steps to isolate people, it's doubling every 4 days.
If those rates keep going, you have cases in the millions within 3-6 weeks. And in the absence of drastic measures to slow it down, I don't see any natural break on those rates of increase.
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But that’s my point, are those predictions on growth rate based on doing nothing.?
I certainly agree we should be taking precautions..
Rhetorical questions again, but what effect on the growth rate can be gained by better hygiene alone.? Washing hands and avoiding hand/hand or hand/mouth contact, disposing of tissues etc.?
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There's two things IDM.
One is the total number of cases there will be.
The other is how quickly we get to that.
My understanding is that both can be controlled to some extent by reducing contact between people. If we DON'T take serious steps to reduce contact, I'm guessing we end up somewhere around that 80% infection rate that the scientific advisers to the Govt were talking about last week as a reasonable worst case. And we wi get there very quickly.
That's why I think it's inevitable that big restrictions on gatherings are coming in the next few days and weeks.
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One of the worst things to happen in the UK in recent years was Michae Gove saying we don't need experts. Now everybody is an expert.
These are the actual facts.
The goverments' own 'worst case scenario' is 80% of the country infected with 1% death rate. That is 500 000 people.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-news-latest-deaths-uk-infection-flu-a9360271.html
It's effects vary wildley with age or an underlying health condition (like wot I have got) being the biggest determining factor. Most people don't require any special treatment and will recover at home - some may have it and show no symptoms at all.
Worldwide very few people under 50 have died - whilst the death rate of 8% for over 70's and 15% for over 80's.
https://www.livescience.com/is-coronavirus-deadly.html
Enjoy the game if you are going to MK today - and follow the hygenie rules as set out by the CMO this week.
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Billy Stubbs If you’re correct what’s your point. If China’s in lock down we don’t live in China
There are so many contradictions it’s ridiculous
My question is how is James Maclean going to cope if you have to sing the national anthem whilst you wash your hands
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Phil.
I simply don't know how to begin to respond to that.
Maybe we actually deserve what's coming.
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More important than any of this. Can we win today and keep ourselves in the play off race
I’m hoping I’ve not put a curse on us I fancy us to win but refuse to bet on us. The wife’s talked me into it as part of an Acca
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BST, I think it's your extreme doom and gloom stance on what seems everything British that's the problem. There always seems to be at the very least an underlying political whinge to the points you make. Just imagine if everything you've said in the past had come true. For a start, the lack of bog rolls would have been the very least of our problems with the absence of food on the shelves.
We're all gonna die anyway, so lets at least try to be happy while we're alive with a bit of positivity.
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Like I said. Maybe we deserve it.
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Speak for yourself.
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BB.
The fact that you read posts from me saying we should all be prepared to do what we are advised by the Govt, and conclude from that that there appears to be an "underlying political whinge to the points you make" suggests you're having a problem here.
You then go on to criticise my predictions by raising the issue of what might have happened after a crash out hard Brexit 12 months ago. And you point out that those predictions didn't happen. But you ignore the fact that the crash out hard Brexit didn't happen.
You have a weird obsession with me and what I say. Or, more to the point, what your bizarre caracature of me in your head says. You have this unsettling need to have an argument with someone who doesn't exist. I genuinely worry about you.
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I think you talk a lot of sense BST.
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Normally agree with a lot you say BST but the fact is, China is a grossly over populated country, with large parts that have hygiene levels that are utterly shocking. You simply cannot compare the UK to China, yes there will be potentially 1,000's, maybe 10's of thousands that are infected with this illness but the death rate and the spread of it will be nowhere near that of countries like China or Iran.
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Rtid.
1) Have you been to a big Chinese city? I've not seen much but what I have seen has hygiene levels that are at least on a par with ours.
2) England is a more densely populated place than China.
3) If you don't buy any of that, what about the death rate in Italy.
What I truly don't get about this is that there are experts who spend every working day telling us how dangerous this is. What makes people think their gut feeling is a better guide to what might happen?
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How about the death rate in Germany of 0%??
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Rtid.
1) Have you been to a big Chinese city? I've not seen much but what I have seen has hygiene levels that are at least on a par with ours.
2) England is a more densely populated place than China.
3) If you don't buy any of that, what about the death rate in Italy.
What I truly don't get about this is that there are experts who spend every working day telling us how dangerous this is. What makes people think their gut feeling is a better guide to what might happen?
That’s what happens a lot these days.. folks see headlines and make judgements without further investigation, and then it spreads via social media.
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How about the death rate in Germany of 0%??
Forgive me but that's just a silly comparison. You can't look at countries where the outbreak has only just started.
Our mortality rate was 0% 48 hours ago. Today it's 1.2%. I wouldn't take either of those figures as the definitive value.
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Germany has had over 600 cases, the 5th most of any country, I would hardly say the outbreak has just started.
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Apologies. I shouldn't have said it was silly. But you do need to look at this a bit further.
The outbreak in Germany has suddenly exploded. A week ago there were fewer than 100 cases. THAT'S what I mean about it being in the early stages. It generally takes a few days before fatalities start emerging, and it wouldn't have been statistically nonsense for them to have no fatalities in the first 1-200 cases. Also, it is possible that the first few hundred cases are not in a statistically representative group of the population. Maybe there weren't many old/ill people in the first couple of hundred cases? I'll guarantee you they won't have zero fatalities this time next week.
Meanwhile, you can't look at Germany and say "it won't be as bad as they say" while ignoring France, Italy, Spain, USA, Australia etc, all of which have current fatality rates higher than the 1% figure.
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Country by Country stats
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
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The two people who had it in York a few weeks back had been going about their daily business for days before they got diagnosed, yet nobody else has caught this virus.
It’s nonsense to suggest hundreds of thousands of people are going to die,
If it was as serious as that the Cheltenham festival for one wouldn’t be going ahead, well over 500k people there mingling.
It wouldn’t be happening
On the one hand, we have professors of epidemiology talking about 10s of millions of people in the UK catching this virus and a death rate of 1%.
On the other, you have the man who, a couple of weeks ago reckoned Peterborough had nailed down an automatic promotion slot saying that is nonsense.
Choices, choices...who to believe?
Who said Peterborough had nailed down an automatic promotion spot.
You making stuff up again billy
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The majority of people being killed worldwide are elderly people with underlying health issues.
This OTT panicking is a bigger problem than the virus
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Forgive me Dickos. I must have misunderstood when you said they looked like comfortably getting a too two place.
https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=276147.msg948145#msg948145
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The majority of people being killed worldwide are elderly people with underlying health issues.
This OTT panicking is a bigger problem than the virus
I'll repeat the core of the problem. Really patiently because you seem to have missed why the head of the WHO is so concerned about this.
1) Elderly people are still "people". The suggestion that it's somehow OK if several tens of millions of them worldwide have their lives cut short, is, frankly, disgusting.
2) When epidemics like this reach their peak, the peak is very big and cones very, very quickly.
The people who are experts in this say that 50% of the infections will occur over a 3 week period. And the lowest reasonable estimate of the total number of infections that we can expect is about 15% of the population. And indications at the moment are that around 10% of infections have serious effects, and 1% lead to death.
Do the numbers. That suggests that, if we don't control this, over a three week period in a month or two, we in the UK will have 500,000 seriously ill people to deal with (we have 100,000 beds in the NHS) and 50,000 excess deaths (you'd normally expect 5000 over that period).
THAT is why people who think about this are deeply concerned, and why "meh" is not the response of a serious adult.
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The majority of people being killed worldwide are elderly people with underlying health issues.
This OTT panicking is a bigger problem than the virus
I'll repeat the core of the problem. Really patiently because you seem to have missed why the head of the WHO is so concerned about this.
1) Elderly people are still "people". The suggestion that it's somehow OK if several tens of millions of them worldwide have their lives cut short, is, frankly, disgusting.
2) When epidemics like this reach their peak, the peak is very big and cones very, very quickly.
The people who are experts in this say that 50% of the infections will occur over a 3 week period. And the lowest reasonable estimate of the total number of infections that we can expect is about 15% of the population. And indications at the moment are that around 10% of infections have serious effects, and 1% lead to death.
Do the numbers. That suggests that, if we don't control this, over a three week period in a month or two, we in the UK will have 500,000 seriously ill people to deal with (we have 100,000 beds in the NHS) and 50,000 excess deaths (you'd normally expect 5000 over that period).
THAT is why people who think about this are deeply concerned, and why "meh" is not the response of a serious adult.
Fact is your figures don't stack up BST.... There have only been 80,000 cases in China after 2 months... The chances are the numbers in the UK will be lower therefore there won't be 500,000 people in a month or two in the UK with disease. The UK is cleaner, has a much smaller population, a much better heath system and a much more active media (as horrendous as it is!) that will be publishing this constantly!
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Rtid.
Yes. Because China basically has been shut down for 6 weeks. Travel pretty much stopped. Factories, offices, schools, universities closed. People required to stay in their homes under threat of arrest.
The people who are showing China as an example if why the virus will not spread are precisely the ones who are saying we shouldn't over-react by taking drastic measures to control it.
One or the other. Not both.
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BB.
The fact that you read posts from me saying we should all be prepared to do what we are advised by the Govt, and conclude from that that there appears to be an "underlying political whinge to the points you make" suggests you're having a problem here.
You then go on to criticise my predictions by raising the issue of what might have happened after a crash out hard Brexit 12 months ago. And you point out that those predictions didn't happen. But you ignore the fact that the crash out hard Brexit didn't happen.
You have a weird obsession with me and what I say. Or, more to the point, what your bizarre caracature of me in your head says. You have this unsettling need to have an argument with someone who doesn't exist. I genuinely worry about you.
BST, as serious as this situation is you still use it to gain political smarty points, like ridiculing the government's idea to bring back retired doctors, for instance. It's that sort of whinging that I have a problem with. Also, like condemning the use of the name Wuhan flu. If that's the case, why isn't Asian flu, or Middle East respiratory syndrome (Mers) the same? all of a sudden, naming the virus after its place of origin is called a blame game!
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The majority of people being killed worldwide are elderly people with underlying health issues.
This OTT panicking is a bigger problem than the virus
I'll repeat the core of the problem. Really patiently because you seem to have missed why the head of the WHO is so concerned about this.
1) Elderly people are still "people". The suggestion that it's somehow OK if several tens of millions of them worldwide have their lives cut short, is, frankly, disgusting.
2) When epidemics like this reach their peak, the peak is very big and cones very, very quickly.
The people who are experts in this say that 50% of the infections will occur over a 3 week period. And the lowest reasonable estimate of the total number of infections that we can expect is about 15% of the population. And indications at the moment are that around 10% of infections have serious effects, and 1% lead to death.
Do the numbers. That suggests that, if we don't control this, over a three week period in a month or two, we in the UK will have 500,000 seriously ill people to deal with (we have 100,000 beds in the NHS) and 50,000 excess deaths (you'd normally expect 5000 over that period).
THAT is why people who think about this are deeply concerned, and why "meh" is not the response of a serious adult.
Of course elderly people matter, but your standard flu kills thousands of them every single year. Yet there isn’t any of this panic.
You keep quoting all these end of the world panic figures but there are plenty of other doctors and scientists quoting the complete opposite
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Go on. Give us some. And explain why we should trust them instead of people like the head of the World Health Organisation and the heads of public health bodies in the UK.
Explain why China took such drastic action if it is nothing to worry about.
Explain why Italy, France, Switzerland and Germany are following suit.
I assume all of them are in panic mode and over-reacting, whereas you have this sussed. Is that it?
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Rtid.
1) Have you been to a big Chinese city? I've not seen much but what I have seen has hygiene levels that are at least on a par with ours.
2) England is a more densely populated place than China.
3) If you don't buy any of that, what about the death rate in Italy.
What I truly don't get about this is that there are experts who spend every working day telling us how dangerous this is. What makes people think their gut feeling is a better guide to what might happen?
I have been to Beijing and out in the sticks when I worked there, believe you me the hygiene facilities are pretty dire outside of the touristy hotels. And that also includes the off tourist spots of Beijing.
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Raven.
Point taken. You will certainly know more than me about China.
But what about Italy? Lombardy is one of the most advanced regions anywhere on earth. And it's going through there like a dose of salts.
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If only we knew the true figures from China. Agreed but why in only one hotspot in the whole of Italy/Europe?
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Because it hit there first. It's only a "hotspot" because they are a week or two ahead of everywhere else in Europe.
Unchecked, the number of infections grows exponentially in the early stages. We currently have around the same number of recorded cases that Italy had around 24-25 February. That's less than 2 weeks ago. France and Germany have around the same number that Italy had last Saturday.
Without taking drastic measures, we WILL see figures here in the thousands within about a week, and figures in the 10s of thousands within about 3-4 weeks. Then we are into serious crisis mode.
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All, just accept BST needs to panic and he needs us all to panic with him.
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Thank you for that incredibly useful contribution Ldr.
With my po-face on, it;s not about panicking. It's about treating seriously a threat that could kill several hundred thousand of us, and doing the things we need to do to minimise that threat.
Feel free to keep making lame jokes about it if you like. Just wash your hands after you've done it.
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It wasnt a joke, it was a serious observation. How do you get any joy from life when you are so constantly worrying about everything?
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I take plenty of enjoyment from plenty of things, while also thinking about problems ahead and planning for them.
Sometimes I'm serious.
Sometimes I'm daft.
Sometimes I'm concerned.
Sometimes I'm laid back.
Sometimes I'm angry.
Sometimes I'm flippant.
Who'd have thought adults could be multi-facetted, eh?
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Normally agree with a lot you say BST but the fact is, China is a grossly over populated country, with large parts that have hygiene levels that are utterly shocking. You simply cannot compare the UK to China, yes there will be potentially 1,000's, maybe 10's of thousands that are infected with this illness but the death rate and the spread of it will be nowhere near that of countries like China or Iran.
Like Italy?
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5 years jail in Russia if you don’t self isolate 😳
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What's the betting the odd political opponent of Putin, or campaigning journalist is found to have broken the self-isolation laws? It'd be cleaner than having them fall out of upstairs windows or carelessly walk into bullets as they have a habit of doing.
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I'm genuinely puzzled by the difference between these numbers.
Italy- 7,375 cases, 366 deaths, 650 serious/ critically ill
South Korea- 7,313 cases, 50 deaths, 36 serious/ critically ill
I have no answers but I can't see why the death/ critical figures should be so radically different.
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I'm genuinely puzzled by the difference between these numbers.
Italy- 7,375 cases, 366 deaths, 650 serious/ critically ill
South Korea- 7,313 cases, 50 deaths, 36 serious/ critically ill
I have no answers but I can't see why the death/ critical figures should be so radically different.
Age I think Baroni? I'm sure I read somewhere that Italians have one of the highest elderly population.
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That would account for the Italian figures being higher, but by that much?
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I think it's also accepted that Italy has a lot of undiagnosed cases, whereas South Korea has been testing a lot of people.
There's a similar issue in the USA where they've been caught napping and don't have anything like enough testing kits. Over there, the death rate measured against confirmed cases is 4%. I don't know of any expert who thinks the real death rate is that high. Let's hope the South Korea mortality rate 0.7% is the right one. That's still 15-20 times higher than normal flu but a lot less than 1% which is the standard figure being bandied around.
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75% of the cases in South Korea are from one church in one city/region
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_South_Korea