Viking Supporters Co-operative
Viking Chat => Viking Chat => Topic started by: BillyStubbsTears on March 06, 2021, 06:37:23 pm
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...that I wheel out BST's Patent Points Predictor.
Looking at the form of each team over the past 10 games and projecting that through to the end of the season, then seeing how many points this predicts for each position at the end of the season.
Here we go. As of tonight, the prediction is:
1st - 90
2nd - 86
3rd - 82
4th - 81
5th - 81
6th - 76
7th - 73
8th - 71
9th - 70
10th - 69
11th - 67
12th - 64
Remember, there's no pure science behind it, it's just tended to work reasonably well in the past.
For what it is worth, the simpler approach of just taking each team's current PPG over the full season and projecting that to the end of the season gives:
1st - 89
2nd - 86
3rd - 84
4th - 84
5th - 82
6th - 76
7th - 74
8th - 74
9th - 71
10th - 69
11th - 67
12th - 66
So not a lot in it either way. Looking like we ought to be firm favourites for the play-offs, but top 2 requires very few slips now, and we have 10 of the last 16 away.
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Please no no no. It just puts the kiss of death on us.
Your predictions of us being Champions of League Two unless we had a catastrophic loss of form still haunts me. Just as equally when you said we wouldnt go down from the Champ after we beat Leeds at Elland Road.
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No I didn't DBR.
I'm predicting how many points will be required for each final position. Not who will get that many.
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So 11 wins from the last 16 would get us into automatic - as you say, tough ask.
I believe we have won 12, and drawn 1, of our past 16 games.
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Not quite Wilts. Won 10 and drawn 1 of the last 16. That run repeated might just clinch second spot, I reckon.
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We got 31 points out of the last 16 games and we will need the same again based on PPG
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I love your annual points predictions BST but it is actually impossible to predict with much degree of accuracy. Points already won is never an accurate guide to future points gained.
Historically the champions need between 87 to 95 points
2nd place between 83 to 90
There is a large difference required in different seasons
I think 88/89 points will win the league this season. It is so tight at the top I would be surprised if more was required
2nd place I reckon 86/87 maximum.
No science in this just my hunch because teams are taking points off each other.
Don’t see anyone winning more than 10 games that remain. Think as we have more to play than most we have the best chance of achieving over 10.
Top 6 in no particular order the 6 that are there now. Take your pick for top 2
Who wants it most. We have a very good chance. 10 away games makes it tough.
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In fact looking at no of games played I do not see any one except us to have much chance of winning more than 8 more games.
If we win 9 draw 4 or win 10 and draw 1 of last 16 i think we could sneak 2nd place.
So much ifs and buts though especially the Butts. :chair:
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I love your annual points predictions BST but it is actually impossible to predict with much degree of accuracy. Points already won is never an accurate guide to future points gained.
Historically the champions need between 87 to 95 points
2nd place between 83 to 90
There is a large difference required in different seasons
I think 88/89 points will win the league this season. It is so tight at the top I would be surprised if more was required
2nd place I reckon 86/87 maximum.
No science in this just my hunch because teams are taking points off each other.
Don’t see anyone winning more than 10 games that remain. Think as we have more to play than most we have the best chance of achieving over 10.
Top 6 in no particular order the 6 that are there now. Take your pick for top 2
Who wants it most. We have a very good chance. 10 away games makes it tough.
Do you see the irony in your post, Campsall; pouring scorn on the worth of making predictions and then making your own predictions in the very same post?
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I love your annual points predictions BST but it is actually impossible to predict with much degree of accuracy. Points already won is never an accurate guide to future points gained.
Historically the champions need between 87 to 95 points
2nd place between 83 to 90
There is a large difference required in different seasons
I think 88/89 points will win the league this season. It is so tight at the top I would be surprised if more was required
2nd place I reckon 86/87 maximum.
No science in this just my hunch because teams are taking points off each other.
Don’t see anyone winning more than 10 games that remain. Think as we have more to play than most we have the best chance of achieving over 10.
Top 6 in no particular order the 6 that are there now. Take your pick for top 2
Who wants it most. We have a very good chance. 10 away games makes it tough.
Do you see the irony in your post, Campsall; pouring scorn on the worth of making predictions and then making your own predictions in the very same post?
Also ending up with pretty much the exact same predicted points for 1st and 2nd!
BST - I know this generally works well as a yardstick, but how well has it worked in previous years when you’ve done this? Has it tended to end up within a handful of points from what you predicted or are there any extreme outliers?
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No I didn't DBR.
I'm predicting how many points will be required for each final position. Not who will get that many.
After this number of years, BST, have you got that on copy-paste? :D
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I love your annual points predictions BST but it is actually impossible to predict with much degree of accuracy. Points already won is never an accurate guide to future points gained.
Historically the champions need between 87 to 95 points
2nd place between 83 to 90
There is a large difference required in different seasons
I think 88/89 points will win the league this season. It is so tight at the top I would be surprised if more was required
2nd place I reckon 86/87 maximum.
No science in this just my hunch because teams are taking points off each other.
Don’t see anyone winning more than 10 games that remain. Think as we have more to play than most we have the best chance of achieving over 10.
Top 6 in no particular order the 6 that are there now. Take your pick for top 2
Who wants it most. We have a very good chance. 10 away games makes it tough.
Do you see the irony in your post, Campsall; pouring scorn on the worth of making predictions and then making your own predictions in the very same post?
Also ending up with pretty much the exact same predicted points for 1st and 2nd!
BST - I know this generally works well as a yardstick, but how well has it worked in previous years when you’ve done this? Has it tended to end up within a handful of points from what you predicted or are there any extreme outliers?
It's generally been remarkably accurate. Usually within a point or two for most positions. Not for every one of course. There is the odd outlier but as a general guide it has tended to get a lot more positions broadly right than the ones it has got badly wrong.
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I should clarify something on that "accuracy" post. It's generally accurate to within a couple if points if you do this over a few weeks. The figures oscillates form changes, but if you take the average for each position over a few weeks, it's usually not far off.
So don't get fixated on these precise figures. They'll go up and down a bit it just see where they are averaging out.
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I love your annual points predictions BST but it is actually impossible to predict with much degree of accuracy. Points already won is never an accurate guide to future points gained.
Historically the champions need between 87 to 95 points
2nd place between 83 to 90
There is a large difference required in different seasons
I think 88/89 points will win the league this season. It is so tight at the top I would be surprised if more was required
2nd place I reckon 86/87 maximum.
No science in this just my hunch because teams are taking points off each other.
Don’t see anyone winning more than 10 games that remain. Think as we have more to play than most we have the best chance of achieving over 10.
Top 6 in no particular order the 6 that are there now. Take your pick for top 2
Who wants it most. We have a very good chance. 10 away games makes it tough.
Do you see the irony in your post, Campsall; pouring scorn on the worth of making predictions and then making your own predictions in the very same post?
Sorry where was I pouring scorn on predictions? I just said it is impossible to be very accurate. That is not pouring scorn.
I make predictions all the time. I said I enjoy reading BST’s predictions.
So don’t make something of nothing ok thank you.
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I love your annual points predictions BST but it is actually impossible to predict with much degree of accuracy. Points already won is never an accurate guide to future points gained.
Historically the champions need between 87 to 95 points
2nd place between 83 to 90
There is a large difference required in different seasons
I think 88/89 points will win the league this season. It is so tight at the top I would be surprised if more was required
2nd place I reckon 86/87 maximum.
No science in this just my hunch because teams are taking points off each other.
Don’t see anyone winning more than 10 games that remain. Think as we have more to play than most we have the best chance of achieving over 10.
Top 6 in no particular order the 6 that are there now. Take your pick for top 2
Who wants it most. We have a very good chance. 10 away games makes it tough.
Do you see the irony in your post, Campsall; pouring scorn on the worth of making predictions and then making your own predictions in the very same post?
Sorry where was I pouring scorn on predictions? I just said it is impossible to be very accurate. That is not pouring scorn.
I make predictions all the time. I said I enjoy reading BST’s predictions.
So don’t make something of nothing ok thank you.
It's there in your very first line, Campsall. There for all to see.
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I love your annual points predictions BST but it is actually impossible to predict with much degree of accuracy. Points already won is never an accurate guide to future points gained.
Historically the champions need between 87 to 95 points
2nd place between 83 to 90
There is a large difference required in different seasons
I think 88/89 points will win the league this season. It is so tight at the top I would be surprised if more was required
2nd place I reckon 86/87 maximum.
No science in this just my hunch because teams are taking points off each other.
Don’t see anyone winning more than 10 games that remain. Think as we have more to play than most we have the best chance of achieving over 10.
Top 6 in no particular order the 6 that are there now. Take your pick for top 2
Who wants it most. We have a very good chance. 10 away games makes it tough.
Do you see the irony in your post, Campsall; pouring scorn on the worth of making predictions and then making your own predictions in the very same post?
Sorry where was I pouring scorn on predictions? I just said it is impossible to be very accurate. That is not pouring scorn.
I make predictions all the time. I said I enjoy reading BST’s predictions.
So don’t make something of nothing ok thank you.
It's there in your very first line, Campsall. There for all to see.
Get a grip man. If that’s the way you want to interpret it that’s up to you isn’t it.
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I love your annual points predictions BST but it is actually impossible to predict with much degree of accuracy. Points already won is never an accurate guide to future points gained.
Historically the champions need between 87 to 95 points
2nd place between 83 to 90
There is a large difference required in different seasons
I think 88/89 points will win the league this season. It is so tight at the top I would be surprised if more was required
2nd place I reckon 86/87 maximum.
No science in this just my hunch because teams are taking points off each other.
Don’t see anyone winning more than 10 games that remain. Think as we have more to play than most we have the best chance of achieving over 10.
Top 6 in no particular order the 6 that are there now. Take your pick for top 2
Who wants it most. We have a very good chance. 10 away games makes it tough.
Do you see the irony in your post, Campsall; pouring scorn on the worth of making predictions and then making your own predictions in the very same post?
Sorry where was I pouring scorn on predictions? I just said it is impossible to be very accurate. That is not pouring scorn.
I make predictions all the time. I said I enjoy reading BST’s predictions.
So don’t make something of nothing ok thank you.
It's there in your very first line, Campsall. There for all to see.
Now you've gone and done it.
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I love your annual points predictions BST but it is actually impossible to predict with much degree of accuracy. Points already won is never an accurate guide to future points gained.
Historically the champions need between 87 to 95 points
2nd place between 83 to 90
There is a large difference required in different seasons
I think 88/89 points will win the league this season. It is so tight at the top I would be surprised if more was required
2nd place I reckon 86/87 maximum.
No science in this just my hunch because teams are taking points off each other.
Don%u2019t see anyone winning more than 10 games that remain. Think as we have more to play than most we have the best chance of achieving over 10.
Top 6 in no particular order the 6 that are there now. Take your pick for top 2
Who wants it most. We have a very good chance. 10 away games makes it tough.
Do you see the irony in your post, Campsall; pouring scorn on the worth of making predictions and then making your own predictions in the very same post?
Sorry where was I pouring scorn on predictions? I just said it is impossible to be very accurate. That is not pouring scorn.
I make predictions all the time. I said I enjoy reading BST%u2019s predictions.
So don%u2019t make something of nothing ok thank you.
It's there in your very first line, Campsall. There for all to see.
Now you've gone and done it.
Janso you are such a creep.
All you do is hide behind everyones posts with your snide comments.
So easy to hide behind a keyboard. Grow up for heavens sake.
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Love BSTs predictions, always give a good prediction of how things will pan out.
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Love BSTs predictions, always give a good prediction of how things will pan out.
I love them as well. My post in reply to BST was completely misinterpreted by one or two people to suit their personal agendas.
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And here goes another thread into oblivion!
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I love your annual points predictions BST but it is actually impossible to predict with much degree of accuracy. Points already won is never an accurate guide to future points gained.
Historically the champions need between 87 to 95 points
2nd place between 83 to 90
There is a large difference required in different seasons
I think 88/89 points will win the league this season. It is so tight at the top I would be surprised if more was required
2nd place I reckon 86/87 maximum.
No science in this just my hunch because teams are taking points off each other.
Don%u2019t see anyone winning more than 10 games that remain. Think as we have more to play than most we have the best chance of achieving over 10.
Top 6 in no particular order the 6 that are there now. Take your pick for top 2
Who wants it most. We have a very good chance. 10 away games makes it tough.
Do you see the irony in your post, Campsall; pouring scorn on the worth of making predictions and then making your own predictions in the very same post?
Sorry where was I pouring scorn on predictions? I just said it is impossible to be very accurate. That is not pouring scorn.
I make predictions all the time. I said I enjoy reading BST%u2019s predictions.
So don%u2019t make something of nothing ok thank you.
It's there in your very first line, Campsall. There for all to see.
Now you've gone and done it.
Janso you are such a creep.
All you do is hide behind everyones posts with your snide comments.
So easy to hide behind a keyboard. Grow up for heavens sake.
Hahahahahaha
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Update after the latest matches
1st - 90 89
2nd - 86 87
3rd - 82 83
4th - 81 80
5th - 81 72
6th - 76 69
7th - 73 69
8th - 71 68
9th - 70 68
10th - 69 66
11th - 67 66
12th - 64 65
Looks like the method has fallen apart for places 5-7. I'm not sure I believe these latest figures. I find it very difficult to believe that 69 points will secure 6th place. The current figures come about because several clubs have had woeful recent form having played a lot of matches against other top 10 sides recently, but many of those (us, Ipswich, Lincoln, Oxford, Portsmouth) have (on paper) much easier runs coming. And the predictor is very sensitive to upcoming results this year. If any two of us, Lincoln, Ipswich, Gillingham or Charlton were to win this weekend, it'd push the prediction for 6 place up to about 73-4 and would mean that there'd actually been little change from the original predictions for nearly all the positions. Be interesting to see what it looks like in another week or so.
If the current predictor IS right, it'd make for a hair raising last week of the season with potentially 8 sides in contention for the last two play-off spots.
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I’m pretty sure it will be more than 69 points for 6th place. No lower than 72 I’d say. The original 76 estimate won’t be in danger I don’t think.
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I hope you are right Gaz. If 72-3 points is enough for 6th place, we are in with a decent shout. If it is 76 points, I think we are probably struggling.
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I think we will struggle to get 6th when our defense is so leaky. We will struggle to get the win rate that's required.
It's a shame as I thought, like many, that we could just be robust enough as well as outscore most of the opposition in Div1
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Update after the latest matches
1st - 90 89
2nd - 86 87
3rd - 82 83
4th - 81 80
5th - 81 72
6th - 76 69
7th - 73 69
8th - 71 68
9th - 70 68
10th - 69 66
11th - 67 66
12th - 64 65
Looks like the method has fallen apart for places 5-7. I'm not sure I believe these latest figures. I find it very difficult to believe that 69 points will secure 6th place. The current figures come about because several clubs have had woeful recent form having played a lot of matches against other top 10 sides recently, but many of those (us, Ipswich, Lincoln, Oxford, Portsmouth) have (on paper) much easier runs coming. And the predictor is very sensitive to upcoming results this year. If any two of us, Lincoln, Ipswich, Gillingham or Charlton were to win this weekend, it'd push the prediction for 6 place up to about 73-4 and would mean that there'd actually been little change from the original predictions for nearly all the positions. Be interesting to see what it looks like in another week or so.
If the current predictor IS right, it'd make for a hair raising last week of the season with potentially 8 sides in contention for the last two play-off spots.
Just stumbled on this prediction thread, which I'd totally forgotten about in the despondency over how we finished the season.
I'd said that the predictions tend to bounce around a bit and to do this seriously, you need to see what the average prediction is for any given position. But I didn't update this after late March because I really did not want to look at the table.
Going back and seeing what the average of the first two iterations were, and comparing it against the final points is interesting through.
First number - Final league position
2nd number - average of predictions.
3rd number - actual final points for that position.
4th number - how much the prediction was out.
1st - 89.5 89 -0.5
2nd - 86.5 87 -0.5
3rd - 82.5 80 -2.5
4th - 80.5 77 +3.5
5th - 76.5 77 -0.5
6th - 72.5 74 -1.5
7th - 71 74 -3
8th - 69.5 72 -2.5
9th - 69 69 0
10th - 67.5 67 +0.5
11th - 66.5 67 -0.5
12th - 64.5 66 -1.5
On average, the predictions were right to within less than 1.5 points.
Props to Gaz for this post.
https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=280315.msg1039714#msg1039714
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Excellent work BST, but for us its a bit like the TV show Bullseye, after the event.
Here you are Donny, come and see what you didn't win.
On another note I've just written up an assessment to within an inch of its life, can i have a pat on the ead too, :thumbsup:
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DD.
I do have to look at the final table several times to believe what happened.
27 points from the final 23 games would have seen us in the playoffs. But we didn't even finish in the top chuffing half.
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Update after the latest matches
1st - 90 89
2nd - 86 87
3rd - 82 83
4th - 81 80
5th - 81 72
6th - 76 69
7th - 73 69
8th - 71 68
9th - 70 68
10th - 69 66
11th - 67 66
12th - 64 65
Looks like the method has fallen apart for places 5-7. I'm not sure I believe these latest figures. I find it very difficult to believe that 69 points will secure 6th place. The current figures come about because several clubs have had woeful recent form having played a lot of matches against other top 10 sides recently, but many of those (us, Ipswich, Lincoln, Oxford, Portsmouth) have (on paper) much easier runs coming. And the predictor is very sensitive to upcoming results this year. If any two of us, Lincoln, Ipswich, Gillingham or Charlton were to win this weekend, it'd push the prediction for 6 place up to about 73-4 and would mean that there'd actually been little change from the original predictions for nearly all the positions. Be interesting to see what it looks like in another week or so.
If the current predictor IS right, it'd make for a hair raising last week of the season with potentially 8 sides in contention for the last two play-off spots.
Just stumbled on this prediction thread, which I'd totally forgotten about in the despondency over how we finished the season.
I'd said that the predictions tend to bounce around a bit and to do this seriously, you need to see what the average prediction is for any given position. But I didn't update this after late March because I really did not want to look at the table.
Going back and seeing what the average of the first two iterations were, and comparing it against the final points is interesting through.
First number - Final league position
2nd number - average of predictions.
3rd number - actual final points for that position.
4th number - how much the prediction was out.
1st - 89.5 89 -0.5
2nd - 86.5 87 -0.5
3rd - 82.5 80 -2.5
4th - 80.5 77 +3.5
5th - 76.5 77 -0.5
6th - 72.5 74 -1.5
7th - 71 74 -3
8th - 69.5 72 -2.5
9th - 69 69 0
10th - 67.5 67 +0.5
11th - 66.5 67 -0.5
12th - 64.5 66 -1.5
On average, the predictions were right to within less than 1.5 points.
Props to Gaz for this post.
https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=280315.msg1039714#msg1039714
I had forgotten all about that as well with how the season ended. Pretty much said 74 points in not so many words!