Viking Supporters Co-operative
Viking Chat => Off Topic => Topic started by: BillyStubbsTears on August 09, 2022, 11:06:38 pm
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Clearly the Red Wall is going to be crucial in the next election. Labour hasn't got a prayer of being the biggest party in 2024 unless it can recover in those seats. So how is it going?
The vote share in the Red Wall seats, averaged out was
Con 47
Lab 39
That was a massive shift from 2017 when it was
Lab 50
Con 42
Here's the latest polling data.
https://mobile.twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1557037175010631680
Lab 48
Con 33.
If that remains (and it's a big IF if course) Labour will sweep the board of those seats in 2024.
Those on the Left who instinctively criticise Labour would do well to remember this. If Labour doesn't get into power, you can have all the policies and all the principles and all the ideology you want. But you'll have a Govt headed by Liz Truss.
Your call.
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Yes, the red wall is important.
So is Scotland, and Tory losses in the south to the LDems, and boundary changes.
Far too early to be talking about polls, as you well know!
Silly post.
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Albie.
It's too early to be making any final assessments based on polls. Of course. Which is why I caveated my post, as I'm sure you saw.
It's more foolish to ignore them altogether as a indication of the state of play.
You yourself were quoting them at length not two months ago to back up your claim that Starmer is no good. Even though you quoted them wrongly.
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I can't see any reason why we cannot consider the state of the polls today. If nothing else, they give a picture of how well or badly the leadership of any and every party is doing.
BobG
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Lots of things can happen in 2 years. Civil disobedience and unrest are on the horizon.
If Keith turns his back on the Unions, that red wall could soon be in danger.
I'm still predicting a hung parliament; and if Labour's the biggest Party, Keith will have to do some more reneging.
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Lots of things can happen in 2 years. Civil disobedience and unrest are on the horizon.
If Keith turns his back on the Unions, that red wall could soon be in danger.
I'm still predicting a hung parliament; and if Labour's the biggest Party, Keith will have to do some more reneging.
Who's Keith?
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It's trends that matter, of course there can be abrupt changes but it's the trends that unsettle the horses on either side. The trend is with labour atm.
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the latest you gov poll has labour with a 4 point lead it was something like 11 points not long ago
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the latest you gov poll has labour with a 4 point lead it was something like 11 points not long ago
Agreed.
There was always going to be something of a bounce back after Johnson had been deposed. Plus the Tories have had a month of wall to wall coverage of their shiny new leader candidates. And there's always a honeymoon period.
That won't last. I guarantee you. Not with a year of 10+% inflation and a 15 month recession in the post.
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The error bars on a poll at this stage are very wide, and the poll does not do anything other than give a temporary snapshot.
There is no read through to voting intentions at a distant election.
What is interesting in the red wall is the numbers who will choose not to vote.
I think that disengagement will increase, but that remains to be seen the extent to which it has an impact.
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polls are just that, polls, ups and downs, errors this way and that, but ask any campaign manager where they would like to be .............. behind or leading?
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The error bars on a poll at this stage are very wide, and the poll does not do anything other than give a temporary snapshot.
There is no read through to voting intentions at a distant election.
What is interesting in the red wall is the numbers who will choose not to vote.
I think that disengagement will increase, but that remains to be seen the extent to which it has an impact.
Yes of course it's a snapshot of where we are now.
Hand on heart. If the polls were saying Labour was 10% behind in the Red Wall seats, are you seriously telling me you wouldn't see that as a very serious problem?
You're in danger of letting your certainty that Starmer is a failure cloud the way you look at all evidence.
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That Starmer is a failure is nothing to do with my understanding of polling...in any way.
No-one who understands how polling works would have posted the OP unless they were looking to influence by false association.
This is not specific to the red wall, polling is unreliably reported across the UK media without any reference to uncertainty, and as such is used to mislead.
As I said, the red wall issue for Labour is non voting, which you have chosen to ignore.
The poll you highlight says nothing about it...the elephant in the room.
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Exactly that Albie , a poor turnout at the next election when we have to choose between two shyte sandwiches .
Just because the Tory vote may crumble in the former Red Wall doesn't mean that vote transfers to Labour , I know mine won't .
Besides I'm all for the former Red Wall to remain massively marginal for the foreseeable .
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the latest you gov poll has labour with a 4 point lead it was something like 11 points not long ago
Strange that none of our Starmer supporters mentioned that 7% swing in the polls .
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the latest you gov poll has labour with a 4 point lead it was something like 11 points not long ago
Strange that none of our Starmer supporters m3ntioned that 7% swing in the polls .
If you look at the graph on the YouGov site it’s been fluctuating around a mean for quite a few weeks now.
And you do know that YouGov has very close links to the current government. Zahawi was one of the founders.
Pure coincidence I know.
They’ve clearly put the graduate intern on the party opinion polling because all the resource seems to have gone on polling the Tory leadership race which they’ve been quite good at.
Again, a coincidence.
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That Starmer is a failure is nothing to do with my understanding of polling...in any way.
No-one who understands how polling works would have posted the OP unless they were looking to influence by false association.
This is not specific to the red wall, polling is unreliably reported across the UK media without any reference to uncertainty, and as such is used to mislead.
As I said, the red wall issue for Labour is non voting, which you have chosen to ignore.
The poll you highlight says nothing about it...the elephant in the room.
You're lecturing me on stats and uncertainty?
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That Starmer is a failure is nothing to do with my understanding of polling...in any way.
No-one who understands how polling works would have posted the OP unless they were looking to influence by false association.
This is not specific to the red wall, polling is unreliably reported across the UK media without any reference to uncertainty, and as such is used to mislead.
As I said, the red wall issue for Labour is non voting, which you have chosen to ignore.
The poll you highlight says nothing about it...the elephant in the room.
You're lecturing me on stats and uncertainty?
Anyone with any sense realises that polls are a snapshot in time and they are open to influence and misinterpretation depending on who they were commissioned for.
I still believe that when it comes to the day of the race people being what they are tend to think about their own personal circumstances first and foremost and will vote for the government they believe will best suit their requirements.
When you factor a Labour party headed up by a bland metropolitan biased, insular and grey ex lawyer who's very actions go counter to what red wall voters would wish then i would say the writings on the wall for him and the party.
Solution, actively look to promote a new leader. Seriously i think this guy will blow it for the Labour party.
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That Starmer is a failure is nothing to do with my understanding of polling...in any way.
No-one who understands how polling works would have posted the OP unless they were looking to influence by false association.
This is not specific to the red wall, polling is unreliably reported across the UK media without any reference to uncertainty, and as such is used to mislead.
As I said, the red wall issue for Labour is non voting, which you have chosen to ignore.
The poll you highlight says nothing about it...the elephant in the room.
You're lecturing me on stats and uncertainty?
I think albie hit a nerve there.
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Lots of things can happen in 2 years. Civil disobedience and unrest are on the horizon.
If Keith turns his back on the Unions, that red wall could soon be in danger.
I'm still predicting a hung parliament; and if Labour's the biggest Party, Keith will have to do some more reneging.
Who's Keith?
You've obviously not been on here much in the last couple of years, Muttley, where it's been explained umpteen times.
Ask Google why the left of the Labour Party refer to Starmer as "Keith".
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That Starmer is a failure is nothing to do with my understanding of polling...in any way.
No-one who understands how polling works would have posted the OP unless they were looking to influence by false association.
This is not specific to the red wall, polling is unreliably reported across the UK media without any reference to uncertainty, and as such is used to mislead.
As I said, the red wall issue for Labour is non voting, which you have chosen to ignore.
The poll you highlight says nothing about it...the elephant in the room.
One is not a failure until you lose, that corbyn lost or rather went through the sound barrier backwards, that is a loss. Starmer has been ahead in the polls for six months, it's the whiners and the doubters that are out of step at present, in the minority.
Lynch, however he explains it is telling you in the end to vote labour. I don't care how you try to weasel your way around it, you cannot get what you want without labour.
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the latest you gov poll has labour with a 4 point lead it was something like 11 points not long ago
Strange that none of our Starmer supporters m3ntioned that 7% swing in the polls .
If you look at the graph on the YouGov site it’s been fluctuating around a mean for quite a few weeks now.
And you do know that YouGov has very close links to the current government. Zahawi was one of the founders.
Pure coincidence I know.
They’ve clearly put the graduate intern on the party opinion polling because all the resource seems to have gone on polling the Tory leadership race which they’ve been quite good at.
Again, a coincidence.
I have found you gov one of the better polls in the last couple of elections
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I've found the only one that matters (and can be very reasonably accurate) will be the Exit Poll at a few seconds past 10pm on GE day
Hopefully it will say at the very worst
" No overall Majority but Labour are the largest Party".
After that I will go immediately to bed waking up at 6 am to see if they were right.
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the latest you gov poll has labour with a 4 point lead it was something like 11 points not long ago
Strange that none of our Starmer supporters m3ntioned that 7% swing in the polls .
If you look at the graph on the YouGov site it’s been fluctuating around a mean for quite a few weeks now.
And you do know that YouGov has very close links to the current government. Zahawi was one of the founders.
Pure coincidence I know.
They’ve clearly put the graduate intern on the party opinion polling because all the resource seems to have gone on polling the Tory leadership race which they’ve been quite good at.
Again, a coincidence.
I have found you gov one of the better polls in the last couple of elections
Fair enough .
I just happen to think that their national polling over the last few months has been a bit erratic.
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the latest you gov poll has labour with a 4 point lead it was something like 11 points not long ago
Strange that none of our Starmer supporters m3ntioned that 7% swing in the polls .
If you look at the graph on the YouGov site it’s been fluctuating around a mean for quite a few weeks now.
And you do know that YouGov has very close links to the current government. Zahawi was one of the founders.
Pure coincidence I know.
They’ve clearly put the graduate intern on the party opinion polling because all the resource seems to have gone on polling the Tory leadership race which they’ve been quite good at.
Again, a coincidence.
I have found you gov one of the better polls in the last couple of elections
Fair enough .
I just happen to think that their national polling over the last few months has been a bit erratic.
i agree i have seen massive differences ranging from 13 points to 4 points, whatever the polls say the tories have to sort themselves out to have any chance at the minute
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Wonder what the odds are for Johnson to back as leader before next election, subject to him not having mislead Parliament?
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the latest you gov poll has labour with a 4 point lead it was something like 11 points not long ago
Strange that none of our Starmer supporters m3ntioned that 7% swing in the polls .
If you look at the graph on the YouGov site it’s been fluctuating around a mean for quite a few weeks now.
And you do know that YouGov has very close links to the current government. Zahawi was one of the founders.
Pure coincidence I know.
They’ve clearly put the graduate intern on the party opinion polling because all the resource seems to have gone on polling the Tory leadership race which they’ve been quite good at.
Again, a coincidence.
I have found you gov one of the better polls in the last couple of elections
Fair enough .
I just happen to think that their national polling over the last few months has been a bit erratic.
i agree i have seen massive differences ranging from 13 points to 4 points, whatever the polls say the tories have to sort themselves out to have any chance at the minute
Its always been fair to say that mid term polls are just a snapshot that really concerns no one but party organisations and agitators who live by them.
The general public pay lip service to them and monitor their own personal circumstances and when it comes to polling day listen to the party manifestos and end up following the ones who managed to con them into thinking their policies will be best for the country.
Im not aware of anyone making their decision on what a newspaper or TV program told them!!
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In general Don I have noticed that politically biased people only mention the polls when the reflect what they want to see.
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I've found the only one that matters (and can be very reasonably accurate) will be the Exit Poll at a few seconds past 10pm on GE day
Hopefully it will say at the very worst
" No overall Majority but Labour are the largest Party".
After that I will go immediately to bed waking up at 6 am to see if they were right.
I think that's exactly what it will say, Wolfie. Then you'll see Keith frantically snake-oiling about looking for deals to prop his government up, even though he's pledged he won't.
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I've found the only one that matters (and can be very reasonably accurate) will be the Exit Poll at a few seconds past 10pm on GE day
Hopefully it will say at the very worst
" No overall Majority but Labour are the largest Party".
After that I will go immediately to bed waking up at 6 am to see if they were right.
I think that's exactly what it will say, Wolfie. Then you'll see Keith frantically snake-oiling about looking for deals to prop his government up, even though he's pledged he won't.
Any deal with the Dems is going to cost .
The Dems will want to change the voting system to PR and at least want to rejoin the SM and CU .
I cannot imagine for one minute that the Dems wouldn't ask for them as part of a coalition government .
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Of the 54 seats that Labour lost to the Tories in 2019, 52 of them voted Leave in 2016.
Are these 2 things linked, do you think?
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Albie
Certainly they are, although the lesson from that is not as simple as some people simplistically assume.
In few of those seats did a majority of Labour supporters support Brexit. That's the complicating issue. In most cases, the majority of voters in those seats supported Brexit because a minority of then- Labour supporters voted Leave alongside a large majority of Tory supporters.
Many people on the Left have, in their haste to slag off Starmer, assumed that Labour losing those seats in 2019 under a Ref2 policy means that Labour would have done better if it had embraced Brexit. Whereas the polling evidence throughout early 2019 indicates that if Labour had NOT adopted Ref2 as a policy, it would have faced an existential threat in the majority of the country, and might well have got no more than 20% of the vote.
Politics eh?
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Would be very interesting to see a poll question asking Red Wall voters if they are prepared to vote for a Starmer run Labour party at th next GE.
I have a feeling the answer would not be to Keiths liking.
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Would be very interesting to see a poll question asking Red Wall voters if they are prepared to vote for a Starmer run Labour party at th next GE.
I have a feeling the answer would not be to Keiths liking.
Err. That was precisely what I posted in the OP. The poll has Labour 15% ahead.
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Would be very interesting to see a poll question asking Red Wall voters if they are prepared to vote for a Starmer run Labour party at th next GE.
I have a feeling the answer would not be to Keiths liking.
Oh. Polling from last week (+/- from 26th July):
Labour 48% (+3)
Conservative 33% (-1)
Reform UK 6% (+3)
Liberal Democrat 7% (-3)
Green 5% (–)
Plaid Cymru 1% (–)
Other 3% (+2)
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Would be very interesting to see a poll question asking Red Wall voters if they are prepared to vote for a Starmer run Labour party at th next GE.
I have a feeling the answer would not be to Keiths liking.
Err. That was precisely what I posted in the OP. The poll has Labour 15% ahead.
That's not what i mean. That poll includes everyone whatever their voting intentions past and present.
I'm asking of the Redwall voters as in the Ex Labour voters who changed to Tory only. Not the whole electorate.
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It seemed clear to me Don.
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Obviously not very interesting for some others then!
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Quelle surprise.
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Obviously not very interesting for some others then!
Do you ever think about looking for yourself? There is some data out there and it doesn't tell the story you would like it to. But I'll let you find it for yourself.
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BST. Where is this data, and what do you do if it doesn't tell the story you would like it to?
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Go look for it. I've seen it and I'm very relaxed about what it says.
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I asked where is this data. Surely you want people to support you and be relaxed with your opinion?
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I don't give two f**ks what your position is on this. If you want to find it,get your big boy pants on and go look for it.
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I've been thinking. It doesn't really exist, does it?
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BST,
To suggest that the 80 seat majority thrashing that Labour got, would have been even worse if they hadn't pushed for a second Ref, is absolutely ludicrous, and I don't care what stats you come up with.
Utter and total b*ll*cks.
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BST,
To suggest that the 80 seat majority thrashing that Labour got, would have been even worse if they hadn't pushed for a second Ref, is absolutely ludicrous, and I don't care what stats you come up with.
Utter and total b*ll*cks.
Well reasoned argument.
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Obviously not very interesting for some others then!
Do you ever think about looking for yourself? There is some data out there and it doesn't tell the story you would like it to. But I'll let you find it for yourself.
Well i never, well yes i did, i knew you would have to have your say on this, how did you know i was talking about you ?
Knowing you if this data exists you would of knocked your mam over in you haste to have it up on here. With that not being the case we can only presume your talking Shi*e again.
What gives you the impression that it would tell a story that i won't like, you now turned into David Blaine in your spare time when your not saving the world ?
Is there anything you can't do ?
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Clearly the Red Wall is going to be crucial in the next election. Labour hasn't got a prayer of being the biggest party in 2024 unless it can recover in those seats. So how is it going?
The vote share in the Red Wall seats, averaged out was
Con 47
Lab 39
That was a massive shift from 2017 when it was
Lab 50
Con 42
Here's the latest polling data.
https://mobile.twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1557037175010631680
Lab 48
Con 33.
If that remains (and it's a big IF if course) Labour will sweep the board of those seats in 2024.
Those on the Left who instinctively criticise Labour would do well to remember this. If Labour doesn't get into power, you can have all the policies and all the principles and all the ideology you want. But you'll have a Govt headed by Liz Truss.
Your call.
Few things on this.
One - the 2019 change in red wall tory vote share compared to 2017 wasn't massive.
Two - it's well documented that the fall of the red wall has been a gradual process of decay for decades. Tory vote share has risen and risen at consecutive elections. Mansfield a very good case study. Roughly 20% tory share in the early 00s has now trebled.
Three - The reasons why the red wall fell are mainly attributed to changing demographics over time, ageing populations etc.
Four - you rightly say IF this single poll holds is a big if. Yes. It is a big if. Mainly because midterm polls are notoriously unreliable indicators of future elections. That poll needs even greater caveats given the PM at the next election isn't even in office yet! So here's a comfortable prediction. The result at the next election won't resemble anything like that poll.
Final point - and this is much more important - how do Labour win a majority (not merely largest party) without winning back Scotland?