Positives & negatives

[BillyStubbsTears]

Pib.

I wasn't contradicting you. Just adding to the discussion. I think my point was that it's not that surprising that Accrington didn't finish bottom and Sunderland didn't finish top. What WOULD be surprising would be Accrington regularly finishing above Sunderland.

As for our performance, I agree with you. If we did have a 6th placed budget last year, that really highlights how badly Ferguson underachieved.

[pib]

Good stuff.

I hope, and believe, that McCann can use those resources wisely again next year and have us in a similar position this time next season if we miss out this time around.

Plenty of conjecture about the players we might lose and how we would replace them, but with a top 6 budget it shouldn’t be as difficult as people might think. The players we fear losing (Marquis, Whiteman, Rowe etc) were attainable at the time we signed them so replacements should be equally within our reach if the budget stays about the same.

[silent majority]

I would disagree that it’s ALL about budget size. It’s about bang for buck as well.

If we had the 6th biggest budget last year, then not only did we underachieve for the budget we had, I’m also compelled to wonder where that money went because we certainly didn’t have a “6th best” standard squad. Nowhere near.

Equally this season, I don’t think we’ve got the sixth best squad in the division, but with the canny way McCann has used the loan market he’s got us closer than we were.

It leads me to conclude, albeit just my subjective take on it, that either the sixth biggest budget doesn’t go that far, or there’s a lot of money tied up on a handful of above averagely paid players at the club.

But that's just your personal opinion, whereas the figures I've quoted are fact. In most cases the clubs with the biggest budgets are at the top of the division and those with the smallest are at the bottom, but sometimes games show that to be a nonsense.

Take last nights game for example. Accrington have one of the lowest budgets, if not the lowest in this league at just over £1m. Ours will be 4 times that.

Sunderland though, will be at least 5 times the size of ours.

Yes, it is my opinion. Which is why I used phrases such as “I would disagree” and “it leads me to conclude”. Posting some facts doesn’t shut down all discussion does it? Especially when I’m not disagreeing with the facts and am discussing them.

I didn’t dispute the facts that you posted for one second. It is my personal opinion that you can have a good budget but if it’s mismanaged and misused, you won’t get the results that your budget suggests you should.

I think you’ve backed that up with your examples of Accrington and Sunderland. Accrington - lowest budget but nowhere near the bottom. Sunderland - biggest budget but not at the top.

So basically, we agree.

The point I made, which you missed, was that I was answering the post above mine, where the poster suggested another season in this division should see a stronger side/team. So I made the point that it doesn't naturally follow and that it's about the size of budget. It was a completely different point I was making. So, my use of the word 'all' had a different meaning to the one you picked up on.

Apart from that I was pointing out how poorly we were managed last season relative to the size of the budget. In fairness we spent about a £1m more than was originally planned for because of the situation we found ourselves in, i.e. having to buy Ben Whiteman for example.

But we don't agree, there are exceptions that's for sure, but in general it is about the size of the budget.

[Upton Rover]

Posh can get 9 points we can get 6 goes down 2 goal difference. Yes ours is better but can be caught
Upton, It's still in our hands because, if we win our two remaining games, it doesn't matter what Peterborough or Coventry do, they won't catch us.
[/quote]

[NickDRFC]

The title of this thread is how I feel about us finishing either 6th or below.  There are pros and cons to each.  I do feel finishing 7th may not be a bad thing. We are a long way from ready to be promoted.

Don't worry. The board would certainly invest if we did get promoted. They want it as much as we do (most of us, anyway).

I don't doubt that Rob at all and of course we should go for it, but would we be stronger with another year in the league?

Not necessarily. It's all about budget size. We are where we expected to be, a budget size that gets us into the top 6 but doesn't make us stand out like those above us. And next season would be pretty much the same. There will always be a handful of clubs whose budget will give them a significant advantage over the others.

Last season we had Wigan with a budget of £12m, Blackburn £17m, Rotherham £6.5m. All promoted.

We had the 6th biggest budget, but ended up 15th.

Do you have the budget by club to hand? And can it be shared? I know we can find out actual spend by club on Companies House (if disclosed) but given the ease with which you’ve put those positions/absolutes it would be fascinating to see the full list.

[silent majority]

The title of this thread is how I feel about us finishing either 6th or below.  There are pros and cons to each.  I do feel finishing 7th may not be a bad thing. We are a long way from ready to be promoted.

Don't worry. The board would certainly invest if we did get promoted. They want it as much as we do (most of us, anyway).

I don't doubt that Rob at all and of course we should go for it, but would we be stronger with another year in the league?

Not necessarily. It's all about budget size. We are where we expected to be, a budget size that gets us into the top 6 but doesn't make us stand out like those above us. And next season would be pretty much the same. There will always be a handful of clubs whose budget will give them a significant advantage over the others.

Last season we had Wigan with a budget of £12m, Blackburn £17m, Rotherham £6.5m. All promoted.

We had the 6th biggest budget, but ended up 15th.

Do you have the budget by club to hand? And can it be shared? I know we can find out actual spend by club on Companies House (if disclosed) but given the ease with which you’ve put those positions/absolutes it would be fascinating to see the full list.

Hi Nick, I do have it.

I generally leave it to the experts, like Swiss Ramble and The Price of Football for example, to put it out in social media circles. It wouldn't be seen as right for me to do it, sitting in meetings with the EFL for example might be a tad difficult!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Whaddya know? The Open University has done a study on this.



That's a far stronger correlation than I'd have thought.

Bear in mind that above the line means the club outperformed relative to budget and below the line means the club underperformed.

Look where we are. And Leeds...

Interesting looking at that graph a bit more.

Clubs that averaged a similar league position over that period (us and Coventry, Preston and Leeds, Swansea and Charlton) had wage bills that varied by a factor of 3 or 4. That's a more satisfying indicator of how good/bad management can affect a club's long-term performance.

Looking at that graph and seeing just how much we over-performed under O'Driscoll,  on a budget that was 9% of the average of the top two tiers, you do have to feel for the guy that he never got a chance to prove himself with a truly competitive budget.

[dickos1]

Posh can get 9 points we can get 6 goes down 2 goal difference. Yes ours is better but can be caught
Upton, It's still in our hands because, if we win our two remaining games, it doesn't matter what Peterborough or Coventry do, they won't catch us.

[/quote]

Goal difference won’t be caught if we won our last two games.

[jackthelad]

Posh can get 9 points we can get 6 goes down 2 goal difference. Yes ours is better but can be caught
Upton, It's still in our hands because, if we win our two remaining games, it doesn't matter what Peterborough or Coventry do, they won't catch us.

Goal difference won’t be caught if we won our last two games.
[/quote]

Agreed. We win our last two we will get the play-offs however it's looking like a tall order at the moment given current form and the opposition.