General Election Prediction Thread.

[wing commander]

 Their has been some lively debate on the general election thread and I'm sure that will continue with many twist,turns and no doubt own goals yet to come so lets all put our money were are mouths are and predict the result...It will be interesting to see who gets it closest when its all said and done..I've left out Sinn Fein,independents and change..  Heres mine..


 Conservative                339
 Labour                         214
 Liberal Democrat          25
 Brexit Party                   0
 Green                           1
 SNP                              39
 UKIP                             0
 Plaid Cymru                   2
 DUP                              9

[Ldr]

Lib Dems will gain a lot of Labour seats on the remain vote

[BillyStubbsTears]

Lib Dems will gain a lot of Labour seats on the remain vote

Want to have a bet on that?

There's only two seats that Labour hold where the LDs were within 10,000 votes of them in 2017.

There's only 10 seats where the difference is under 20,000.

There is no way on earth that the LDs are going to make up differences like that to take "lots" of seats off Labour. Maybe 3-4, but not many more.

[selby]

After this election we may just see how matey some of the factions in the labour party really are.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Put it another way.

The swing from Lab to LD since 2017 according to the latest polls is about 11% (Labour has dropped by about 14% (from 41%to 27%) - LDs have risen by about 8% (from 7% up to about 15%). That's a combined difference of 22%  -the swing is half of that - 11%).

If there's a uniform national swing of 11% Lab-->LD in the Election, the LD's would pick up 2 seats from Labour.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat#UKParliament

To get their 5th target seats from Labour, the LDs would need a swing of 16%. To get their 10th, they'd need a swing of 23.5%. Those swings are simply not going to happen. Despite Swinson's lot lying through their teeth in their publicity material about how well they are doing.

On the other hand, there are LOTS of seats that the LDs could take from the Tories with a small swing. They figures they are currently polling at indicate a swing of about 6.5% from Tory to LD since 2017. If that holds on election day, they would take 10 seats off the Tories. That could be a game changer.

That is the reason why the LDs are concentrating on showing how much they dislike Labour. Not to win Labour seats, but to reassure disgruntled centrist Tories that they can vote LD safely.