Coronavirus - genuine question

[Magicman]

No body will completely self isolate. It’s almost impossible to do so.
The only way any one can is if they are made to do so in a secure environment.

How can children not mix with parents. It’s not possible. Then are the parents not going to go to work etc etc.
It’s a none sense.

then that is total lunacy if they dont

[Filo]

I spent the day a week and a half ago with a relative at a wedding who had recently returned from China, she works there, she’s still alive and so am I and all the other wedding guests. She has been advised by her employers not to return to China for the foreseeable future though

[BillyStubbsTears]

Doesn't the flu virus annualy kill more than these viruses are expected to kill?

Depends what you mean by "expected to kill". That all depends on how extensively it spreads.

We have some natural resistance to standard flu. So it doesn't spread as quickly or as far.

We have zero resistance to Covid-19. Our bodies are vulnerable to it and have to learn on the spot how to combat it. So it will propagate much wider and faster if it's not isolated.

Figures I've heard from an epidemiology professor are that infection rates could be as high as 60-70% if it isn't controlled. And death rates of people infected would be 1-2%.

If that's right, you're looking at somewhere around 40 million infections & half a million deaths in the UK and around 4 billion infections and 50 million deaths worldwide.

That sounds too ridiculous to be feasible. But those were the numbers that the Spanish Flu killed in 1919.

[River Don]

Doesn't the flu virus annualy kill more than these viruses are expected to kill?

Depends what you mean by "expected to kill". That all depends on how extensively it spreads.

We have some natural resistance to standard flu. So it doesn't spread as quickly or as far.

We have zero resistance to Covid-19. Our bodies are vulnerable to it and have to learn on the spot how to combat it. So it will propagate much wider and faster if it's not isolated.

Figures I've heard from an epidemiology professor are that infection rates could be as high as 60-70% if it isn't controlled. And death rates of people infected would be 1-2%.

If that's right, you're looking at somewhere around 40 million infections & half a million deaths in the UK and around 4 billion infections and 50 million deaths worldwide.

That sounds too ridiculous to be feasible. But those were the numbers that the Spanish Flu killed in 1919.

1-2% is a rough estimate, I've seen suggestions that the actual figure is going to be more like 2.7% but this is based on estimates of what is really going on in China. Nobody can really be sure until we see more data from outside of that country.

There is perhaps something else it has in common with the Spanish flu. Once recovered it apparently leaves the body with only a low resistance to it. Meaning it is possible to be reinfected. I have not seen any figures as to how likely this is. Once reinfected the immune system can go into overdrive providing a shock, I don't remember the medical term. Anyway, the result is it affects the organs, particularly the heart.

It was the second wave of infection with the Spanish flu that was particularly deadly. It's to be hoped this thing isn't the same.

*cytokine storm

[BillyStubbsTears]

Big difference between Covid-19 and the Spanish Flu.

The latter disproportionately killed healthy young people. The former appears to be particularly deadly for older/ill people.

[River Don]

Smokers seem to be a more risk too. I would assume anyone with an existing chest condition would be slightly more at risk. Those with asthma and so on.