Form

[Filo]

A 100/1 shot has won the National twice I think!

In successive years?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Filo. Exactly. EXACTLY!

[BigColSutherland]

What are the bookies saying today? They don't get it wrong too often.

(Case in point: http://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=245074.msg421556#msg421556)

[BillyStubbsTears]

What are the bookies saying today? They don't get it wrong too often.

I'm afraid that really IS a trite old cliche. The bookies very often get it wrong on individual issues. They almost always get it wrong on books with big fields (i.e. favourites usually don't win. Favourites in big fields rarely win.) Bookies make their money by getting the spread of odds right so that they attract enough money on losers to cover what they pay on winners.

[BigColSutherland]

Easy tiger, genuine query. What are they saying today?

I'm not sure this qualifies as a standard "field" anyway does it - teams are on different points, have different opponents to play etc.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I've seen nowt on what they are predicting for the final points spread, which is one book that might be of interest. Regarding relegation, we are currently 4th longest odds to stay up
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/to-stay-up

And 4th shortest to go down
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/relegation

Personally, I'd consider those odds to be useless in predicting whether we will go down or not, and whether whether we'll finish fourth bottom or not. Those odds are set to protect the bookies' positions vis-a-vis the bets that they have taken.

Last Friday, they had us at significantly shorter odds than Charlton to stay up, but the situation has totally reversed as a result of 2 goals on Saturday. That is almost certainly a reflection of a relatively small number of relatively uninformed bets tipping the odds on a relatively small book.

As for whether this is a standard field, it depends what you mean by "standard". It is a handicap field, with each runner starting from a  different point. Bookies are well versed in setting odds for such fields. But as I say, the odds reflect nothing more than what the sum of punters' opinions are. The operative word being "opinions".

[BigColSutherland]

4th longest/shortest would seem about right to me.

Yeovil only ever seem to beat us. I don't see them doing enough to stay up.
Blackpool have a novice in charge and a team in freefall. We saw in 2010/11 how hard it is to stop a run of form like theirs. Unfortunately for them I think they started their plummet too soon and will come 19th.
Barnsley's time has come. They sneak home every year, but I think their out of luck this season.

I'd put us level with Millwall in terms of expected outcome - 21st/20th.

I think Charlton will be fine.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I really don't see where this big love in for Charlton has come from.

They are in appalling league form. The win on Saturday was their second in 3 months. They have picked up 10 points in 13 games. they have lost their best striker and have a squad no stronger than ours man-for-man. And they are heading into a nightmare fixture pile-up, with a strong possibility of a run to the cup semi.

Millwall and Blackpool are the two in dreadful long-term form. Millwall have picked up 17 points from their last 23 games. Blackpool have 4 from their last 15 games and 19 from their last 26 games stretching right back to mid-September. I cannot see either of them suddenly hitting the sort of form that would get them well above 45 points.

Barnsley are the interesting one.  Since they sacked  Flitcroft, they are a different side. Under him, they had 11 points from 17 games. Since he left, they have picked up 15 from 13. Carry on that form and they are looking at 44-45 points which gives them a chance.

If they can pick up the 18-19 points they need to reach a total with a decent chance of staying up whilst playing two matches a week for 9 weeks, they'll be showing more ability and resolve than they have shown so far this season.

Course, if they DO stay up and we go down, Lady Luck will have pissed on us from a great height, given that we ought really to be 6 points further ahead of them than we currently are.

For us, everything depends on injuries. If we stay injury free, I expect us to end up on 47-48 points. We are comfortably good enough to pick up a bit more than 1 point per game with a full squad. Lose 3-4 players and we're in a real scrap.

[Filo]

Charlton's cup match against Sheff Utd is played on Sunday 9th March, and then they have a League Match against Huddersfield the following Tuesday, 1 days less rest for them, The fixture pile up they have will finish them off!

[pib]

The fact Charlton have a fixture pile-up doesn't necessarily mean they'll lose them all. They've won the last two, and playing game after game may give them a bit of momentum.

I suppose it'll depend on how their fitness holds up, but we can't really make predictions on that.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Pib

Of course it doesn't automatically mean that they will lose. But it is a factor against them. No club wants to play 2 games a week for an extended period. There's no time to recover from a physically demanding match. There's more of a chance that niggles and knocks will not have time to recover and will turn into something more serious. And there is less time to train and prepare for the next match.

[The Red Baron]

Charlton's cup match against Sheff Utd is played on Sunday 9th March, and then they have a League Match against Huddersfield the following Tuesday, 1 days less rest for them, The fixture pile up they have will finish them off!

I guess the Huddersfield match will be moved back to the Wednesday. Still gives them a heavy schedule though.

[Filo]

Charlton's cup match against Sheff Utd is played on Sunday 9th March, and then they have a League Match against Huddersfield the following Tuesday, 1 days less rest for them, The fixture pile up they have will finish them off!

I guess the Huddersfield match will be moved back to the Wednesday. Still gives them a heavy schedule though.

Would n't that have to be with Huddersfield's agreement? There's a full league schedule on that night

[The Red Baron]

A 100/1 shot has won the National twice I think!

In successive years?

In 1928 Tipperary Tim won the Grand National at a SP of 100/1. A year later the winner was Gregalach, also at 100/1.

[BillyStubbsTears]

A 100/1 shot has won the National twice I think!

In successive years?

In 1928 Tipperary Tim won the Grand National at a SP of 100/1. A year later the winner was Gregalach, also at 100/1.

Oh bugger. We're doomed. Doomed ah tell thi.

[pib]

OH, WELL WOULD YOU LOOK AT THAT! Charlton stayed up!

Good thread, this.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Pib

Pat on the back spadger. Well done.

[pib]

Pib

Pat on the back spadger. Well done.

Thanks very much.

Send me an e-medal, if you like.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I'll send you an e-blow job if you like.

For the record, I've said all along that I'm shite at making specific opinion-based predictions. But I'll admit that when I do give in the the lure, I tend to make my predictions with gusto. I'm impressed with folk who do better than I manage by thinking hard about the specifics and coming up with correct predictions based on qualitative analysis.

So (genuinely) well done for spotting Charlton as a survivor. I thought that they were a bag of shite who were going to collapse in the pressure of the end of season glut of matches.

[RobTheRover]

Another club who will look at sacking the manager as a big success.

[BigH]

A few weeks ago I made the point that, based on a review of the last 10 seasons - or, as meteorological people might say, since records began - those teams in the bottom 3 (or 4) at or around the 40 game mark were the ones that ended up filling the relegation places. 

The one team that was in that place at that time but which may end up bucking the trend is Millwall. They're still not out of it but their recovery has been nothing short of miraculous. It perhaps shows that Holloway is THE manager for this division given his previous success in getting Blackpool and Palace promoted. Keeping Millwall up would be an equally great achievement.

Regrettably, the same stat also highlights just how woeful we and Birmingham have been in our end of season run-ins.

[DonnyNoel]

Regrettably, the same stat also highlights just how woeful we and Birmingham have been in our end of season run-ins.

Sky Sports News stated that Brum's run of games without a home league win is the longest in history? Given how bad we were in 97/98 that's some serious shitness on their part if so.

[BigColSutherland]

Ahem, if we're handing out plaudits then I think I'm top of the pile.

Yeovil down - check
Barnsley down - check
Blackpool 19th - check
Millwall 20/21 - check
Donny 20/21 - check
Charlton fine - check

Now, whether I meant to put Blackpool "19th" and not "22nd" is another matter. But it's there in black and white, and not a sign of a Mad Mick post event edit. Where do I collect my prize?

[RobTheRover]

Regrettably, the same stat also highlights just how woeful we and Birmingham have been in our end of season run-ins.

Sky Sports News stated that Brum's run of games without a home league win is the longest in history? Given how bad we were in 97/98 that's some serious shitness on their part if so.

Did they mean THEIR history or all of history, though?  I can believe its their worst home run of results ever.

To be honest, if Lee CLarke had to get me gee'd up for a game I think I would struggle to perform too.  It'd be like getting a pep talk from Suicidal Syd in Viz

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wouldn't surprise me if it is the longest in all football history. 18 games without a home win is quite stupendously bad. Worst we had in 97-98 was 9

[BigH]

Regrettably, the same stat also highlights just how woeful we and Birmingham have been in our end of season run-ins.

Sky Sports News stated that Brum's run of games without a home league win is the longest in history? Given how bad we were in 97/98 that's some serious shitness on their part if so.

Yep truly shite. Brum have amassed only 2 wins in 2 months; one against Millwall and one against...yep you guessed it.