March important fixtures

[BigKeif]

Thought I would put the top 9 fixtures for march on, on one thread so we can see how important this month can be if we keep winning our games.

March fixtures;

Rovers;
04/03 - Crawley (A)
11/03 - Cheltenham (H)
14/03 - Notts County (H)
18/03 - Orient (A)
26/03 - Plymouth (H)

Plymouth;
04/03 - Carlisle (H)
07/03 - Blackpool (H)
11/03 - Mansfield (A)
14/03 - Wycombe (A)
18/03 - Morecambe (H)
26/03 - Doncaster (A)

Carlisle;
04/03 - Plymouth (A)
11/03 - Cambridge (H)
14/03 - Luton (H)
18/03 - Mansfield (A)
25/03 - Crewe (H)

Portsmouth;
04/03 - Crewe (H)
07/03 - Crawley (A)
11/03 - Colchester (A)
14/03 - Grimsby (H)
18/03 - Stevenage (A)
25/03 - Newport (H)

Luton;
04/03 - Yeovil (A)
11/03 - Stevenage (H)
14/03 - Carlisle (A)
18/03 - Exeter (H)
21/03 - Newport (A)
25/03 - Colchester (A)

Exeter;
04/03 - Hartlepool (A)
11/03 - Accrington (H)
14/03 - Cheltenham (H)
18/03 - Luton (A)
25/03 - Yeovil (H)

Stevenage;
04/03 - Notts county (H)
11/03 - Luton (A)
14/03 - Blackpool (A)
18/03 - Portsmouth (H)
25/03 - Cambridge (A)

Mansfield;
04/03 - Cheltenham (A)
11/03 - Plymouth (H)
14/03 - Colchester (A)
18/03 - Carlisle (H)
25/03 - Morecambe (A)

Colchester;
04/03 - Cambridge (A)
11/03 - Portsmouth (H)
14/03 - Mansfield (H)
18/03 - Crewe (A)
25/03 - Luton (H)

[DearneValleyRover]

Stevenage, Mansfield and Colchester all could have a big say on the other auto spots looking at those fixtures. If we take advantage by winning our own games we could be promoted by the end of March.

[DonnyNoel]

Lots of potential fixtures in there for the chasing pack to trip each other up. Notts County fixture could be trickier for us than had we played it a month or so ago - midtable teams (by definition I suppose) seem to jump in and out of form very quickly in this league.

[Alan Southstand]

If I was a Plymouth supporter, I wouldn't be looking forwards to those set of games! Particularly after taking time out last night to read some of their supporter's comments on their forum. Suicidal!

[roversdude]

Looking at those I fancy Mansfield to sneak into play offs and Pompey and Luton to go up automatically

[steve@dcfd]

12 pts before we play Plymouth will just about see us home and all the pressure on them before that game.

[Alan Southstand]

Just had a quick look at where all the top 5 teams are, going into the last 12/13 games of the season. Assuming 85 points assures you of auto promotion, then:

For us, we need 5 wins and 2 draws and can afford to lose 5 games.
Plymouth need 7 wins, 2 draws and can lose 4
Carlisle need 8 wins, 3 draws and can lose 1
Portsmouth need 8 wins, 5 draws and can't lose any
Luton need 9 wins and 4 draws and can't lose any.

There you go - if anyone can find any faults with the above analysis, then please correct accordingly.

If its correct, we're not in bad shape for promotion.

[Filo]

BST, please come back and give us your excellent analysis!

[ZiggerZagger]

Come the end of the month we could be 16 points clear of 4th place and Carlisle/Plymouth, could no longer be in an automatic spot. Looks to be a bad month ahead for them. Would be nice if we beat them to get promotion and dropped them back into a play off place. A nice piece of Karma for Copps and that tw@t of a keeper

[BigKeif]

If we win next four games then for me I'd say the Plymouth game would definitely be a promotion winning game, maybe even the title so it's a massive money for us in terms of not slipping up and getting the job done and leaving rest of them to it to slip up.

[DearneValleyRover]

Just had a quick look at where all the top 5 teams are, going into the last 12/13 games of the season. Assuming 85 points assures you of auto promotion, then:

For us, we need 5 wins and 2 draws and can afford to lose 5 games.
Plymouth need 7 wins, 2 draws and can lose 4
Carlisle need 8 wins, 3 draws and can lose 1
Portsmouth need 8 wins, 5 draws and can't lose any
Luton need 9 wins and 4 draws and can't lose any.

There you go - if anyone can find any faults with the above analysis, then please correct accordingly.

If its correct, we're not in bad shape for promotion.

Alan nothing wrong with those stats other than it isn't going to require 85 points to achieve promotion. Given the form of all the teams and the amount of games left where potential promotion rivals play one another I can't see more than 3 teams achieving 80 points.

[drfchound]

Plymouth have a really tough set of March fixtures.

[RedJ]

Still desperately hoping they bottle promotion again.

[Alan Southstand]

I realise it's a big assumption, but someone out there will know what a realistic target is for this division, when looking back over previous seasons.

Our March games are going to be pivotal to us achieving a positive outcome from this season. We just have to put the pedal to the metal and see where we are, going into our tough set of fixtures in April.

Hopefully, it's sorted by the end of March, promotion that is, and then we can concentrate on the title.

Edit : Just found this from a Northampton site, when they got promoted from Div 2:

Historical League 2 tables show that a final points total of 84 points has been enough to see a side promoted via the automatic route since the division changed from 22 to 24 teams in 1995.

[IDM]

I have been saying 85 points for quite a while Alan.  In some seasons that would win the league too..

85 points means another 17 from 12 games, less than 1.5ppg, and we are currently on 2 ppg..

[Alan Southstand]

On recent (last 8 games) form, we're on 1.6 points per game, but still above the 1.5 threshold.

[IDM]

Plus it will be much more entertaining IF we achieve promotion winning rather than drawing games.  I think 1.5 or 1.6 ppg is achievable or even greater. 

The other point to note is that by far we are the division top scorers - even considering the recent fixtures - with goals from all over the park.

[Dutch Uncle]

Historical League 2 tables show that a final points total of 84 points has been enough to see a side promoted via the automatic route since the division changed from 22 to 24 teams in 1995.

The Northampton Board was clearly a bit premature Alan. They ended champions, but Accrington finished fourth on goal difference with 85 points last year - they were very unlucky.

I tend to be very much a pessimist on these sorts of things, and I reckoned at the start of the season 85 points was a reasonable target to set for Automatic promotion.

My rationale was that since 3 points per win were introduced in 1981-82, that apart from Accrington last year, the only other team to finish 4th in Tier 4 with 85 points or more was Bournemouth with 88 points in 1981-82 - but that was pre playoffs and 4 teams were promoted automatically. The dynamics in Tier 3 are different with only 3 teams promoted, but there have been 3 occasions of 85 points in 4th place in this time period, and one of 86 points. So all being equal I reckoned 85 points would normally fail to make 3rd say 4 times in those 66 occasions (missing out the seasons there were fewer than 46 games) - that allows for on average 2 successes and 2 failures on goal difference with 85 points. This would give a 94% chance of 3rd place or higher – just about enough to convince this pessimist.

The way things are panning out I am gradually and reluctantly joining the groundswell of opinion that says less than 85 will be necessary. Again, allowing for teams to gain results when they really need to, I think 83 is now a more realistic figure, although this may reduce if enough teams keep dropping enough points.

If we don’t get 15 points from the last 12 games we don’t deserve to go up. 

[Alan Southstand]

With all due respect Dutch, read what was said prior to the quote.............as I wrote it was from a Northampton board when they were busy winning promotion last season. Its not my info at all and its about a year old!

[Dutch Uncle]

With all due respect Dutch, read what was said prior to the quote.............as I wrote it was from a Northampton board when they were busy winning promotion last season. Its not my info at all and its about a year old!

Big apologies Alan, I did indeed see it was not your info, and I was certainly not trying to undermine you. I can now see how my post came across, and I should have been more careful.

However I did see it was clearly a load of Cobblers (although presumably correct at the time of its writing) 

P.S. Have now modified my message accordingly

[Alan Southstand]

 

[Bristol Red Rover]

Fascinating looking at those fixtures. Ours and Pompey's look the best, Plymouth and Carlisle could suffer in March.

Of the others, Luton will be lucky to get much.
Exeter could rise to the (2nd) top.
Stevenage, so so.
Mansfield, not good for them.
Colchester have it tough.

Looking at those I fancy Mansfield to sneak into play offs and Pompey and Luton to go up automatically

Pompey maybe, Luton can only pray hard and hope it's to the right god.

[Lesonthewest]

Mentioned a while ago I thought 85 would be enough for automatic, considering the chasing packs results over the last few weeks I agree with Dutch that 83 will now suffice, maybe even a point or two less.

[Campsall rover]

Fascinating looking at those fixtures. Ours and Pompey's look the best, Plymouth and Carlisle could suffer in March.

Of the others, Luton will be lucky to get much.
Exeter could rise to the (2nd) top.
Stevenage, so so.
Mansfield, not good for them.
Colchester have it tough.

Looking at those I fancy Mansfield to sneak into play offs and Pompey and Luton to go up automatically

Pompey maybe, Luton can only pray hard and hope it's to the right god.

All well and good but football isn't played on paper.
The only results that matter are OURS. It's entirely in our own hands.
I think 16 more points will win us the league and as I have just posted on another thread I think we will get 26 more points.