BREAKING: Corbyn to table no-confidence motion in PM

[albie]

BST,

You tend to avoid any question which does not suit.
Be careful you do not turn into Alaistair Campbell.

It would be irrational  for Labour to support a second referendum (before a GE), at this stage.
(See my earlier post on the time it takes to set up).

Firstly, it is against party policy set out at conference.
Secondly, the numbers in the HoC do not support it presently.
Third, the timing does not fit with the decision making framework.
Fourth, deciding the options to put is not possible until the May deal is voted upon.
Fifth, the outcome may have been overtaken by events by the time of a vote.
Six, it could introduce more turbulence, rather than settle matters, as the HoC cannot be bound by an advisory poll.

Let me set out a possible sequence of events.

1. May delays until mid January, but then her deal is rejected, never to again see light.
2. Stocks and Shares fall as a result of increased possibility of no deal.
3. Sterling falls, and short sellers bet against brand UK.
4. Tory  financial backers get nervous, and May is forced to walk the plank.
5. Changes are then made via the Grieve Amendment, which offer new options.
6. New Tory leader gets Brexit extension to allow time for changes to be tested in HoC.
7. At this point, a decision needs to be made about whether consent exists to proceed.

Then we might have a discussion about whether a new referendum was a better option than a GE.

I am not against Ref2, but it is just not a runner until other things are in place.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Gaz

They are not avoiding Ref2 because of concerns about democracy.

It is THE most democratic outcome for all sorts of reasons which have been laid out at length here.

They are opposing it (for now) for ideological and party political reasons.

We WILL have Ref2, because there's no viable alternative.

And everyone who is suggesting that there will be riots if we do (like that little scrote Darren Grimes) should be prosecuted for incitement if anything remotely resembling civil unrest occurs.

Regarding civil unrest, it's worth reflecting that the Leave voters were heavily skewed towards the 50+ age group. So we might have civil unrest, but I'd back the coppers to handle several thousand gammons with dodgy backs and knees if it came to a standoff.

[GazLaz]

How could they justify unrest? It’s still a democtic vote, just after a period of time when more info had become available. In law you can have a  retrial if new evidence becomes available.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Albie.

1)Thanks for the Campbell comment. I was missing that one on my Corbynista insult bingo card. I'm getting close to a line now.

2) I wasn't saying that Corbyn should prioritise Ref2 over GE. Please don't put words in my mouth. There's enough people twisting and misinterpreting words without someone as smart as you doing it.

3) The rest of your hypothetical argument ignored the great big elephant in the room. What is the mechanism whereby the numbers stack up to result in the Govt being brought down. Who are the Tory or DUP MPs who would vote for an outcome that gave Corbyn a shot at No10?

A GE is simply not going to happen. The sooner Corbyn faces up to that, the sooner the opposition parties can unite on the only way out of this shitshow and start pulling in enough Tories to support that.

But I'll repeat (and talk about ignoring things...I'll wait patiently for your thoughts on this). Corbyn does not want Ref2. Because he wants us out of the EU.

[Glyn_Wigley]

The second referendum vote (if it was to get voted through Parliament) is such an easy way to solve this pantomime. They are very reluctant to go down that route though presumably because they think it’s a threat to democracy perhaps.

A second referendum would be my preference too Gaz.
If however we got another leave outcome would we be in a better place than we are today though?

Yes, because it would be for a specific version of leave and not just a nebulous 'Brexit means Brexit' result. If Parliament refused to pass a version of Leave that the public had specifically voted for, the shit really would hit the fan. As it is, it's as it's been ever since the result of the 2016 referendum was announced - every shade of Brexiteer running round claiming their version of Brexit is what the people voted for and not somebody else's. And look where it's got us.

[drfchound]

The second referendum vote (if it was to get voted through Parliament) is such an easy way to solve this pantomime. They are very reluctant to go down that route though presumably because they think it’s a threat to democracy perhaps.

A second referendum would be my preference too Gaz.
If however we got another leave outcome would we be in a better place than we are today though?

Yes, because it would be for a specific version of leave and not just a nebulous 'Brexit means Brexit' result. If Parliament refused to pass a version of Leave that the public had specifically voted for, the shit really would hit the fan. As it is, it's as it's been ever since the result of the 2016 referendum was announced - every shade of Brexiteer running round claiming their version of Brexit is what the people voted for and not somebody else's. And look where it's got us.

…….it has got us into a right mess.

Because everyone on both sides tells us black is white we don't have a clue what is actually best for us.

This is what I was alluding to when I said you cant believe a word that is being said.
I am not really sure that anyone actually does know what is best.

[Axholme Lion]

Gaz

They are not avoiding Ref2 because of concerns about democracy.

It is THE most democratic outcome for all sorts of reasons which have been laid out at length here.

They are opposing it (for now) for ideological and party political reasons.

We WILL have Ref2, because there's no viable alternative.

And everyone who is suggesting that there will be riots if we do (like that little scrote Darren Grimes) should be prosecuted for incitement if anything remotely resembling civil unrest occurs.

Regarding civil unrest, it's worth reflecting that the Leave voters were heavily skewed towards the 50+ age group. So we might have civil unrest, but I'd back the coppers to handle several thousand gammons with dodgy backs and knees if it came to a standoff.

Ha ha ha. Most fifty year olds would be ok in a tear up with OB. That's if you could prize the plod from the doughnut aisle in the supermarket. Let 'em come! 

[wilts rover]

But I'll repeat (and talk about ignoring things...I'll wait patiently for your thoughts on this). Corbyn does not want Ref2. Because he wants us out of the EU.

Well yes, that was Labour's manifesto commitment and he has been saying that for two years. It is only Theresa May who says he wants to remain.

What he has also been clear about is that he want's the softest form of Brexit with a CU & close to SM. You might not like it and you might not think it is achievable but that's what the official position of the Labour Party is - and it wont change until after the vote.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts.

He's been CLEAR about the CU and SM arrangements? He's had to be dragged kicking and screaming to that position by the Shadow Cabinet, McDonnell and Starmer in particular. Just last week he was in Lisbon thumping out the failings of the EU with a passion that never once came out during the 2016 campaign.

[Tarkovsky_Mikluzhkin]

The idea that Labour/Corbyn are somehow being decitful because they're following the path they said they would is a bit weird. I think people on both Left and right have started to assume if politians on "their" team say something they disagree with  then that politian must be lying to confuse the idiots on the other side to vote for them.
If Corbyn says hes remain but is going to honour the Ref result. You can either assume he is and vote accordingly or you can assume hes a liar and not vote for him. However, it appears to me in these strange times people are voting on the assumption that the person they are voting for thinks the opposite of what they are saying and that thats somehow a good thing.

In the interest of balance Farage contantly talks about closing our boarders to the EU but opening them to Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, China etc.. Yet the xenophobes love him because hes only saying that to confuse the liberals.

I have to say i am enjoying BSTs "bring back the neolibs i didnt mean to pray for anarchy" schtick

[BillyStubbsTears]

TM

Neolib. That's a line on my bingo card.

Top Man.

[albie]

BST,

Your points;

1)
The Campbell comparison is because he has been selling the same argument on the media, despite having no status.
He also does not understand (or ignores) the procedural requirements. These will not disappear because they are inconvenient.

2)
So you agree Corbyn should pursue a GE before lobbying for Ref2?
That is what he is doing, in line with party policy.

3)
I am not saying that a GE will result of necessity. It is a potential outcome, and the mechanism is likely to be creative abstention.
Tories like Boles, Grieve, Soubry, Allen and others withdrawing from the party whip.

The DUP must be taken with a large pinch of salt. Their position is not supported by many in NI, including some DUP voters (see the Guardian article I linked).

Sturgeon has been urging Corbyn to play the VoC card early..which he has wisely deferred.
It is perfectly possible a GE will not materialise...that does not mean Corbyn should not try to create the chance!

You may be right that privately Corbyn does not favour Ref2. That is nothing to the point.
He is following agreed conference policy, as I said before.

If you disagree with party policy, then bring forward a motion to the next conference in the normal manner, as any local Labour party can do.

I hope that helps!

[Tarkovsky_Mikluzhkin]

BST I was hoping you'd spot the song lyric too doubt theres many others that would have a chance.

Anyway im not sure any politician in power would call a ref2. You'd get called a dictator by ref1 fans (a lot of them vote for your party whoever you are).
 A clearer answer on what brexit means would give the political class less wiggle room and it could well turn out brexit voters meant nuking Mongolia and locking up anyone swiss or something mad. The last ref can not have filled any politician with any confidence that the people can be trusted or predicted.
And where exactly is the last PM that called for a ref he already knew the answer to. Just in case youre wondering currently the worst PM in living memory is denying receiving a text from him because in might dent her street cred.

2nd Ref is great for me but I cant see us being trusted with that sort of resposibility ever again. By anyone.

[Glyn_Wigley]

It's a funny dictator who lets the electorate tell him what to do!

[Sprotyrover]

Can't see there being any chance of disorder we are too civilised for that,leave it to the French!

[Tarkovsky_Mikluzhkin]

You dont have to be a dictator or act like a dictator to be called a dictator and if you're called it enough times it'll stick regardless of logic, reason or definition of the word.
Also just because we view ourselves as more civilized than the dirty foreigners doesn't mean theres nothing we can do that would cause civil unrest.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Here's a question, how much support is there for Corbyn's policy and approach?

Lots of questioning of May but is his correct and what would you do?

[wilts rover]

Can't see there being any chance of disorder we are too civilised for that,leave it to the French!

Not being funny Sproty but an MP was shot dead the last time we had a referendum - and that bloke's side won! Last week two people were arrested in Bath for issuing right-wing death threats and today another one in Bristol was jailed for 5 years for having enough bomb making material to blow up half his street.

[wilts rover]

Here's a question, how much support is there for Corbyn's policy and approach?

Lots of questioning of May but is his correct and what would you do?

That's an interesting question BFYP, I'll let you know after the vote!

I do think he is in a more difficult position than May. She 'only' has to placate her mad Brexiteers and the DUP where he has to placate people like BST and the big remain wing of his party - whilst also appealing to leavers in the country if he wants to increase his support to win a snap election.

I do think his chances of winning an election have increased slightly, several Tory MP's have said they will vote with Labour in a vote of confidence if May looses the MV and triggers No Deal - but no one seriously thinks she will.

If that doesn't work who knows  what he might do, but the bookmakers are apparently shortening their odds on a referendum.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts
Bang on.

I've said times-many that Corbyn pulled a blinder in 2017, convincing both Leave and Remain leaning Labour voters that he was on their side.

I've also said that stance couldn't survive the Brexit process. By the time of the next GE he'll have had to pin his colours to one mast or the other.

That puts Labour's current anemic levels of support into context.

He's got a hell of a job on holding that level once the electorate sees what his real stance on Brexit is (whatever it is).

Which suggests that he perhaps ought to have been building a constituency that could survive that moment and still put him in a GE winning position.

The fact that only 25-30% of the electorate think he'd make a better PM than May suggests he ain't been doing that.

[Tarkovsky_Mikluzhkin]

BST

I'm not sure Corbyn convinced voters that he is both a leaver and remainer. I think the Torys did that for him. They have and continue to paint Corbyn as leave but the parlimentary Labour party as remain.

Whether its true or not is irrelevant its a tactically flawed approach from the Torys imo.
Stereotypically i think brexit voters believe theres 1 guy/stupid woman/person of nonspecific gender that runs the whole of Europe and tells all the other countries they arent allowed bendy bananas anymore and such.
Whereas Remainers might think the best intellectual minds across the continent get together and do studies and gather expert opinion to collectively decide the best course of action. Again stereotypical not everyone thinks the same but the majority probably hold an opinion close to one of those two.

So telling Remainers that Corbyn loves Brexit actually lands with leave voters (they think the leaders position is the most important.)
And telling Brexit voters Labour are all Remaniacs actually lands with remain voters (they think policy is decided collectively, So the partys position is the only one that matters)

If you own all the newspapers and write CORBYN IS A C*NT on the front cover everyday I'd expect him to go a lot sooner than he seems to be lasting and i think being seen as both leave/remain is helping Corbyn/Labour.

[Mr1Croft]

There is still one viable option for Corbyn that no one is considering at the moment.

Given there is still no functioning devolved Government in Northern Ireland, Northern Ireland voted overwhelmingly to remain and the problem it is causing in negotiating an acceptable deal, a potential referendum on a United Ireland could be Corbyn's route to power.

Promising such a thing may convince the Sinn Fein MPs to take their seats to try and force a general election. It wouldn't give the opposition a majority, but it brings every vote to a knife edge and greatly increases the prospect of a no confidence motion being passed.

Polling in Northern and Replubic of Ireland does show support for a United Ireland is growing as the likelihood of No Deal increases.

If Northern Ireland suddenly disappear from the equation then all of a sudden an acceptable deal to the commons becomes more likely.

A Conservative Leader could never stand on such a manifesto pledge, but Corbyn can.

[roversdude]

Wow Mr1Croft that is a radical view - that will have the streets running with blood

[RedJ]

Do you not have to swear an oath to the Queen to take your seat? I can't see Sinn Fein ever doing that.

[MachoMadness]

Sinn Fein will never, ever take their seats in Parliament. I remember this being talked about after the 2017 election, it won't happen.

[BillyStubbsTears]

MrCroft

Nice idealism there. Might be a practical problem or two. Like war in Ireland.

[Glyn_Wigley]

And you don't start with a direct switch from the UK to ROI, you have a referendum on NI independence - after which they could stay in the EU on their own terms whilst the rest of the UK exits. There's a lot more chance of that succeeding because there's a whole bunch of people who would never vote to unite with Ireland who might vote for independence.

[The Red Baron]

There is still one viable option for Corbyn that no one is considering at the moment.

Given there is still no functioning devolved Government in Northern Ireland, Northern Ireland voted overwhelmingly to remain and the problem it is causing in negotiating an acceptable deal, a potential referendum on a United Ireland could be Corbyn's route to power.

Promising such a thing may convince the Sinn Fein MPs to take their seats to try and force a general election. It wouldn't give the opposition a majority, but it brings every vote to a knife edge and greatly increases the prospect of a no confidence motion being passed.

Polling in Northern and Replubic of Ireland does show support for a United Ireland is growing as the likelihood of No Deal increases.

If Northern Ireland suddenly disappear from the equation then all of a sudden an acceptable deal to the commons becomes more likely.

A Conservative Leader could never stand on such a manifesto pledge, but Corbyn can.

Well, I suppose if there's one thing that might force the DUP back into the bosom of Theresa that's it. It would be far worse than the prospect of a few customs posts.