BillyStubbsStatto

[acacia94]

I know its like a red rag to some people on here but I love em. Whats it looking like Bill for the run in on keeping that 6th slot and points needed to still be there on May 4th.

[DearneValleyRover]

If you go to www.thefishy.co.uk you can have a go at predicting the final table, I had us finishing 6th on 71 points with 7th finishing on 70.

[RedJ]

Well I'm obviously clueless, I've got four teams on over 90 points.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I know its like a red rag to some people on here but I love em. Whats it looking like Bill for the run in on keeping that 6th slot and points needed to still be there on May 4th.

Busy week. Give us a few days.

Gut feeling? 70-72 points will get 6th place.

[acacia94]

Cheers Bill. I love all the variables and your Walter Cronkite (one for the kids) analysis.

[Dutch Uncle]

What might happen is a new record for this Division for points between 3rd place and 6th place (currently stands at 20 points in 2014-15: Preston 89 points, Chesterfield 69 points)

This is looking at years since 3 points for a win was introduced in 1981-82.

Highest ever for third place (90 points) is also very much under threat.

Average points for 6th place has been 74.2 with a highest of 82 and lowest of 69.

Average points for 7th place has been 71.7 with a highest of 80 and lowest of 65.

P.S. My guess for 6th place this season - 72 points

 

[acacia94]

Mmmmm. It could be bloomin tricky then in the current form.
If we need 15 points from the remaining 9 games (or 1.6 a pop) we'll need to crank it around quite some way. In the last 5 games we've been accumulating points at a rate of 0.6 a game. In contrast Coventry coming up on the rails have been doing an average of 2 points a game in the last 5.
You dont need a masters in stats to see what those 2 arcs are gonna do if that respective form carries on.
Huh! stats eh....I guess the the good bit is we do feel like were getting some form back over the last 2 games.

[BillyStubbsTears]

OK. Here's the prediction of the final points total for each position, based on the past 8 games form

1 - 98
2 - 91
3 - 91
4 - 84
5 - 80
6 - 73
7 - 68
8 - 65
9 - 62
10 - 61

That suggests that 69 points would get a team above 7th place.

[drfchound]

A play off place won’t be decided over the last few games though will it.
What happens over the next nine games will.

[acacia94]

Thats why it's a prediction?
If it was anything more BST wouldn't be pissing about on this forum but floating on his infinity pool on the sundeck of his 90 foot sunseeker.

[acacia94]

So thats 69/70 points a possibility to secure 6th. 13 from 9 games sounds a tad more achievable even for a team spluttering on 0.6 points a game (based on the last 5). If Cov carry on doing what they're doing they'll overtake us but it probably won't carry on like that. Hopefully. That last game which looked like one for the speedos and deckchairs could be a sizzler.

[BillyStubbsTears]

That's not saying the 6th placed team WILL get 69 points. It's saying, using that method, the 7th placed team will get 68, in which case it would be possible to go up with 69.

Out of interest  (and it doesn't work like this, but anyway...) If you do extrapolate current form, it's Coventry that end up in 6th with 73 points and we end up in 7th with 68.

I actually think it's more likely that Coventry will finish with about 68-69 points or so. They've got a really tough run in and they'll do very well to pick up more than 12-13 points from their last 8 games.

[BillyStubbsTears]

There! That's b*llocksed it now hasn't it?

[drfchound]

Thats why it's a prediction?
If it was anything more BST wouldn't be pissing about on this forum but floating on his infinity pool on the sundeck of his 90 foot sunseeker.

Precisely, a prediction.
That is why the outcome of the last nine games is what matters, not what has happened in the last few games.

Anyway I thought that BST had a bigger sunseeker than that.

[acacia94]

Ha!
If the 3 scrapping for that last place carry on with their current trajectories Cov will snatch it. But they've been on a spurt and probably will splutter. We're not much better than Posh at the mo but I reckon the signs since the Wimbledon game are we might have turned the bottom of our shitty curve. Its gonna be a bonkers run in I reckon. Lets face it we've had a good dose of this stuff over the last 15 years and we're not bad at it.
Cheers for the numbers BST.

[drfchound]

Ha!
If the 3 scrapping for that last place carry on with their current trajectories Cov will snatch it. But they've been on a spurt and probably will splutter. We're not much better than Posh at the mo but I reckon the signs since the Wimbledon game are we might have turned the bottom of our shitty curve. Its gonna be a bonkers run in I reckon. Lets face it we've had a good dose of this stuff over the last 15 years and we're not bad at it.
Cheers for the numbers BST.

Agreed that we have had plenty of it in recent years.
The golden years of our club.
To be fair, if we are not much better than Peterbro, it has to be said that on the evidence of the games we have played against the teams above us, they are not much, if any, better than us.

We should get the seatbelts on and enjoy the ride.

RTWD

[BillyStubbsTears]

What the f**k is a sunseeker?

[acacia94]

Massive Yachts for crooks, tax exiles and probably Bono. Only know cos my old company I used to work for did some work for em. Now I'm casting no aspersions Bill that you'd ludicrously spend your money on such daft distractions.

[Bristol Red Rover]

I don't think teams necessarily become tougher if they're in a relegation battle compared to hanging around safely midtable. Many twists and turns ahead, football drama as usual, the fat lady is still in bed.

[IDM]

All our last 5 opponents in our L2 promotion season had something significant to play for..

[Pancho Regan]

It's looking quite likely that our final game of the season will be a decider

[NickDRFC]

It's looking quite likely that our final game of the season will be a decider

Think it’s too early to call that as quite likely. It’s certainly possible but it’s also possible that either one of us will pull away or fade away - one or neither of us might be clear or out of the running by the last day.

[RedJ]

I think the form book will go totally out the window in these last few games - especially with the amount of teams in the relegation battle that still have work to do and/or are looking over their shoulders.

It's all about handling the pressure now and that'll crank up on a weekly basis and just get more intense.

Give me a one game shoot out scenario with Coventry City to decide that final play off place and I'd take that right now - especially with that Oxford game, away, positioned where it is - that's a real potentially nasty fixture to have at that stage!

That would be another "found lying in a pool of my own shite" moment if that were to happen and I would rather have it tied up by then.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

So essentially it's an early start to the play offs if it is us or Coventry to get it....

[RobTheRover]

And in that scenario, you would hope the lucky winner would take some momentum from that into the play-offs proper.

Very interesting days ahead indeed!

[BillyStubbsTears]

OK. Here's the prediction of the final points total for each position, based on the past 8 games form

1 - 98
2 - 91
3 - 91
4 - 84
5 - 80
6 - 73
7 - 68
8 - 65
9 - 62
10 - 61

That suggests that 69 points would get a team above 7th place.

Update after yesterday's matches.

1 - 98 97
2 - 91 97
3 - 91 90
4 - 84 87
5 - 80 87
6 - 73 73
7 - 68 70
8 - 65 67
9 - 62 66
10 - 64 64
11 - 64

It's a bit up and down this year for some of the places because a lot of teams are showing big changes in form.
Barnsley, Luton and Coventry have all seen big dips in form, Sunderland, Portsmouth and Charlton, corresponding improvements.

It's still regularly saying that 7th place won't top 70 points though. Looking at the run-ins, it'd be a brave punter who would lump on against that.

Nearly there lads and lasses.

Nearly there.