BoE duty bound to trigger recession?

[SydneyRover]

Interest rates are the only thing the BoE has to try to rein in inflation.

[drfchound]

just who invented the definition of a recession  ? A word at a stroke implying "doom and depression"

yes a lot  of posters on here have gums that are in recession  ( ok receeding  but it sounds gud )

definition
a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.

CLH says so wot !!

ok i am going to invent a new buzz word  (copyright CLH)

a Tricession

a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in three  successive quarters

as i said a recession is a nice word to spread doom and depression - trouble is very few people know what the definition is


the defintion reminds me of our current definition of "shots on target" in a football match 

A football fans definition of a shot on target includes when a defender blocks a shot on target  etc - but to the doomsters (The Sports Press Football TV commentators etc) who are trying to make out a teams performance is worse than it is ..... and to make a "cheap fake headline" ... they invent the "new" definition.  An obvious target at the moment would be Man U or even the England team


ask the man in the street what the definition of a recession is and he aint got a clue .. but it sounds GUD  as i say

rant over

Who gives a shit what 'the man in the street' thinks about economic term definitions if he knows nothing about economics?

And yet the man in the street (well, lots of them, and women) are the ones who hold the key as to who is in government.

[Glyn_Wigley]

just who invented the definition of a recession  ? A word at a stroke implying "doom and depression"

yes a lot  of posters on here have gums that are in recession  ( ok receeding  but it sounds gud )

definition
a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.

CLH says so wot !!

ok i am going to invent a new buzz word  (copyright CLH)

a Tricession

a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in three  successive quarters

as i said a recession is a nice word to spread doom and depression - trouble is very few people know what the definition is


the defintion reminds me of our current definition of "shots on target" in a football match 

A football fans definition of a shot on target includes when a defender blocks a shot on target  etc - but to the doomsters (The Sports Press Football TV commentators etc) who are trying to make out a teams performance is worse than it is ..... and to make a "cheap fake headline" ... they invent the "new" definition.  An obvious target at the moment would be Man U or even the England team


ask the man in the street what the definition of a recession is and he aint got a clue .. but it sounds GUD  as i say

rant over

Who gives a shit what 'the man in the street' thinks about economic term definitions if he knows nothing about economics?

And yet the man in the street (well, lots of them, and women) are the ones who hold the key as to who is in government.

Then they should listen to people who know what they're talking about to get a good idea of the true situation and make an informed decision, and not to someone making it up as they go along, no?

[drfchound]

just who invented the definition of a recession  ? A word at a stroke implying "doom and depression"

yes a lot  of posters on here have gums that are in recession  ( ok receeding  but it sounds gud )

definition
a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.

CLH says so wot !!

ok i am going to invent a new buzz word  (copyright CLH)

a Tricession

a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in three  successive quarters

as i said a recession is a nice word to spread doom and depression - trouble is very few people know what the definition is


the defintion reminds me of our current definition of "shots on target" in a football match 

A football fans definition of a shot on target includes when a defender blocks a shot on target  etc - but to the doomsters (The Sports Press Football TV commentators etc) who are trying to make out a teams performance is worse than it is ..... and to make a "cheap fake headline" ... they invent the "new" definition.  An obvious target at the moment would be Man U or even the England team


ask the man in the street what the definition of a recession is and he aint got a clue .. but it sounds GUD  as i say

rant over

Who gives a shit what 'the man in the street' thinks about economic term definitions if he knows nothing about economics?

And yet the man in the street (well, lots of them, and women) are the ones who hold the key as to who is in government.

Then they should listen to people who know what they're talking about to get a good idea of the true situation and make an informed decision, and not to someone making it up as they go along, no?

Glyn, you know as well as I do that not everyone is interested in studying economics, just the same as they are not interested in politics.
They all still have the opportunity to vote in an election, however not all of them do that either.

[River Don]

In this case and typically of the dismal science, we have one ex senior policy maker saying put interest rates up because inflation and one saying leave well alone it will make the slow down worse.

Personally I don't see the point. The BoE upping interest rates will have next to no impact on the imported inflation associated with hydrocarbons.

[normal rules]

A rise to 1% confirmed .
No surprise there.
More to come no doubt.

[River Don]

A rise to 1% confirmed .
No surprise there.
More to come no doubt.

Well probably but Bailey said this:

“The MPC simply doesn’t have the tools to offset a supply side shock like this. That would mean raising interest rates to the point that spending was so weak that the prices of other, domestically produced, goods and services fell. That would be damaging and would go against our mandate to avoid causing excessive volatility in output.

[BillyStubbsTears]

In this case and typically of the dismal science, we have one ex senior policy maker saying put interest rates up because inflation and one saying leave well alone it will make the slow down worse.

Personally I don't see the point. The BoE upping interest rates will have next to no impact on the imported inflation associated with hydrocarbons.

Just out of interest, it isn't Andrew Sentance saying we should put up rates is it? He's predicted 12 of the last 1 spikes in inflation.

[BillyStubbsTears]

A rise to 1% confirmed .
No surprise there.
More to come no doubt.

Well probably but Bailey said this:

“The MPC simply doesn’t have the tools to offset a supply side shock like this. That would mean raising interest rates to the point that spending was so weak that the prices of other, domestically produced, goods and services fell. That would be damaging and would go against our mandate to avoid causing excessive volatility in output.

Absolutely. Interest rates control demand. Govt policy deals with supply.

[River Don]

In this case and typically of the dismal science, we have one ex senior policy maker saying put interest rates up because inflation and one saying leave well alone it will make the slow down worse.

Personally I don't see the point. The BoE upping interest rates will have next to no impact on the imported inflation associated with hydrocarbons.

Just out of interest, it isn't Andrew Sentance saying we should put up rates is it? He's predicted 12 of the last 1 spikes in inflation.

In this case it was Posen but no doubt Sentence would agree. I can't remember now but it might have been Haldane who urged caution.

[BillyStubbsTears]

That's intesting RD. Posen was very dovish on interest rates when he was on the MPC.

[River Don]

That's intesting RD. Posen was very dovish on interest rates when he was on the MPC.

It's in the original link on this thread (he's blaming Brexit) . It was Blanchflower urging caution.

[Glyn_Wigley]

just who invented the definition of a recession  ? A word at a stroke implying "doom and depression"

yes a lot  of posters on here have gums that are in recession  ( ok receeding  but it sounds gud )

definition
a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.

CLH says so wot !!

ok i am going to invent a new buzz word  (copyright CLH)

a Tricession

a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in three  successive quarters

as i said a recession is a nice word to spread doom and depression - trouble is very few people know what the definition is


the defintion reminds me of our current definition of "shots on target" in a football match 

A football fans definition of a shot on target includes when a defender blocks a shot on target  etc - but to the doomsters (The Sports Press Football TV commentators etc) who are trying to make out a teams performance is worse than it is ..... and to make a "cheap fake headline" ... they invent the "new" definition.  An obvious target at the moment would be Man U or even the England team


ask the man in the street what the definition of a recession is and he aint got a clue .. but it sounds GUD  as i say

rant over

Who gives a shit what 'the man in the street' thinks about economic term definitions if he knows nothing about economics?

And yet the man in the street (well, lots of them, and women) are the ones who hold the key as to who is in government.

Then they should listen to people who know what they're talking about to get a good idea of the true situation and make an informed decision, and not to someone making it up as they go along, no?

Glyn, you know as well as I do that not everyone is interested in studying economics, just the same as they are not interested in politics.
They all still have the opportunity to vote in an election, however not all of them do that either.

But I didn't say anybody should study economics. Just to listen to those that have.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Interest rates are the only thing the BoE has to try to rein in inflation.

Not quite true, there is the control of the money supply as well.

[drfchound]

just who invented the definition of a recession  ? A word at a stroke implying "doom and depression"

yes a lot  of posters on here have gums that are in recession  ( ok receeding  but it sounds gud )

definition
a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.

CLH says so wot !!

ok i am going to invent a new buzz word  (copyright CLH)

a Tricession

a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in three  successive quarters

as i said a recession is a nice word to spread doom and depression - trouble is very few people know what the definition is


the defintion reminds me of our current definition of "shots on target" in a football match 

A football fans definition of a shot on target includes when a defender blocks a shot on target  etc - but to the doomsters (The Sports Press Football TV commentators etc) who are trying to make out a teams performance is worse than it is ..... and to make a "cheap fake headline" ... they invent the "new" definition.  An obvious target at the moment would be Man U or even the England team


ask the man in the street what the definition of a recession is and he aint got a clue .. but it sounds GUD  as i say

rant over

Who gives a shit what 'the man in the street' thinks about economic term definitions if he knows nothing about economics?

And yet the man in the street (well, lots of them, and women) are the ones who hold the key as to who is in government.

Then they should listen to people who know what they're talking about to get a good idea of the true situation and make an informed decision, and not to someone making it up as they go along, no?

Glyn, you know as well as I do that not everyone is interested in studying economics, just the same as they are not interested in politics.
They all still have the opportunity to vote in an election, however not all of them do that either.

But I didn't say anybody should study economics. Just to listen to those that have.

Slight amendment then Glyn.
Not everyone is interested in listening to people who have studied economics, just the same as they are not interested in politics.
They all still have the opportunity to vote in an election, however not all of them do that either.

[SydneyRover]

Interest rates are the only thing the BoE has to try to rein in inflation.

Not quite true, there is the control of the money supply as well.

Thanks Glyn

[Glyn_Wigley]

Interest rates are the only thing the BoE has to try to rein in inflation.

Not quite true, there is the control of the money supply as well.

Thanks Glyn

There's also the issue of government bonds, but it's a very indirect way of pressuring the banks and other financial institutions that buy them.

[SydneyRover]

Bloody hell Glyn are we done now 

[Glyn_Wigley]

I think they are wanting to deal with inflation but what we are facing is stagflation.

The huge rises in the cost of energy and fuel are rippling through the global economy.

There's not a lot you can do about stagflation is there?

We only have two of the the three requirements of stagflation - low growth and high inflation. For it to be stagflation we'd need to have high unemployment too, which we don't - if you believe the government that is.

[River Don]

I think they are wanting to deal with inflation but what we are facing is stagflation.

The huge rises in the cost of energy and fuel are rippling through the global economy.

There's not a lot you can do about stagflation is there?

We only have two of the the three requirements of stagflation - low growth and high inflation. For it to be stagflation we'd need to have high unemployment too, which we don't - if you believe the government that is.

If things carry on like this it won't be long before we see unemployment rising.

One or two wobbles on the stock markets recently too.

[normal rules]

I think they are wanting to deal with inflation but what we are facing is stagflation.

The huge rises in the cost of energy and fuel are rippling through the global economy.

There's not a lot you can do about stagflation is there?

We only have two of the the three requirements of stagflation - low growth and high inflation. For it to be stagflation we'd need to have high unemployment too, which we don't - if you believe the government that is.

If things carry on like this it won't be long before we see unemployment rising.

One or two wobbles on the stock markets recently too.

There are some standout wobbles on the markets. But the FTSE 100 is only 0.5% down over 6 months . And actually 5.5% up over the last 12 months .
That’s said the ftse 250 is down 11% on the year.

[drfchound]

I think they are wanting to deal with inflation but what we are facing is stagflation.

The huge rises in the cost of energy and fuel are rippling through the global economy.

There's not a lot you can do about stagflation is there?

We only have two of the the three requirements of stagflation - low growth and high inflation. For it to be stagflation we'd need to have high unemployment too, which we don't - if you believe the government that is.

If things carry on like this it won't be long before we see unemployment rising.

One or two wobbles on the stock markets recently too.

A big lump gone off my pension fund in the last week or so.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

I think they are wanting to deal with inflation but what we are facing is stagflation.

The huge rises in the cost of energy and fuel are rippling through the global economy.

There's not a lot you can do about stagflation is there?

We only have two of the the three requirements of stagflation - low growth and high inflation. For it to be stagflation we'd need to have high unemployment too, which we don't - if you believe the government that is.

If things carry on like this it won't be long before we see unemployment rising.

One or two wobbles on the stock markets recently too.

A big lump gone off my pension fund in the last week or so.

Not half, bit of a killer of late but it'll rebound.

Glyn, no doubt unemployment stats are low, don't know how others are doing but recruiting right now is very difficult.

[Glyn_Wigley]

I think they are wanting to deal with inflation but what we are facing is stagflation.

The huge rises in the cost of energy and fuel are rippling through the global economy.

There's not a lot you can do about stagflation is there?

We only have two of the the three requirements of stagflation - low growth and high inflation. For it to be stagflation we'd need to have high unemployment too, which we don't - if you believe the government that is.

If things carry on like this it won't be long before we see unemployment rising.

One or two wobbles on the stock markets recently too.

There are some standout wobbles on the markets. But the FTSE 100 is only 0.5% down over 6 months . And actually 5.5% up over the last 12 months .
That’s said the ftse 250 is down 11% on the year.

The FTSE isn't as much of an indicator of the health of the UK economy as it used to be in the past. Most big companies are now so global that their profits could easily have been gained in countries other than the UK.

[River Don]

GDP fell 0.1% last month.

We are already on the verge.