For those still struggling to see why the EU is important

[Dutch Uncle]

Yep, I'll take that take Dutch. Perhaps it's fair to say that him doubling down and switching to a grinding war in the south and east once he realised Kyiv wasn't going to fall was predicated on his assumption that the EU would buckle and strongarm Zelensky into submission.

Yes, and so now he is switching to terrorising the Ukrainian civilian population, while all the while threatening to stop grain shipping.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Clearly, strategically weakening the EU has been a huge policy objectives for Putin for years. There's no other reason why he should have bankrolled Le Pen and Salvini and supported Orban. And closer to home, there's the fact that the bankrolled of Leave.EU lied repeatedly about his connections with the Russian ambassador.

It makes all the sense in the world. If your main foreign policy is to dominate the countries in your near-abroad, the last thing you want is for them to be part of a rich, stable, democratic group.

Anyway. That graphic was great.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yep, I'll take that take Dutch. Perhaps it's fair to say that him doubling down and switching to a grinding war in the south and east once he realised Kyiv wasn't going to fall was predicated on his assumption that the EU would buckle and strongarm Zelensky into submission.

Yes, and so now he is switching to terrorising the Ukrainian civilian population, while all the while threatening to stop grain shipping.

Hasn't Turkey pledged naval support for the grain shipments? If so, there's no way Russia is going to attack any grain ships.

[Dutch Uncle]

Yep, I'll take that take Dutch. Perhaps it's fair to say that him doubling down and switching to a grinding war in the south and east once he realised Kyiv wasn't going to fall was predicated on his assumption that the EU would buckle and strongarm Zelensky into submission.

Yes, and so now he is switching to terrorising the Ukrainian civilian population, while all the while threatening to stop grain shipping.

Hasn't Turkey pledged naval support for the grain shipments? If so, there's no way Russia is going to attack any grain ships.

A simple statement saying he can’t guarrantee their safety might have an effect on insurance costs. He always wants to show he has power and just threatening can sow more doubt and confusion.

He always wants to create pressure and I also expect more incidents around nuclear power stations

[BillyStubbsTears]

Assuming we all live to see it, it'll be fascinating to see how his successors deal with Putin's legacy. He models himself on Stalin, but Stalin was denounced by his successors within 3 years of his death.

[wilts rover]

Wilts I have to disagree. Your argument doesn’t stand up. Putin took the crimea in 2014. We were still in the EU then.
He had the confidence to invade the Ukraine because when he annexed crimea everyone stood around and let him get away with it. It had nothing to do with the UK leaving the EU

Wilts, Phil, IMHO the argument of UK in or out of EU is a red herring wrt Ukraine.

My personal opinion is certainly that Putin wanted UK out of the EU under a general divide and conquer principle. But in decisions on action in Crimea in 2014 and in Donbas/the rest of Ukraine this year he would have been looking far more at reactions in the US and possible moral support from China.

The relatively muted reaction from the west in 2014, plus Putin's success in weakening the US by supporting Trump, will have encouraged him enough not to bother too much about any EU reaction.  Also earlier this year he would have believed calculations re Ukraine folding within a few days which in his mind would have rendered moot the issue of any conventional military support from US or any other NATO nations to Ukraine.   

I disagree Dutch. He thought Europe was divided (Brexit) and dependant on him for gas (Germany) so would just allow him to walk in and take over Ukraine with no opposition.

These were not the major factors he invaded - but certainly added to it. I think it is unlikey he would have gone in if we were still in the EU (as we would have been clamping down on Russian money in the City under EU tax laws too).

There will be books on this for many years to come for us to discuss I bet.

Obviously I have not expressed myself very well if both Wilts and BST are misunderstanding me 

My whole point is that when Putin was making his decision in February to invade Ukraine I don't think he would have been worried about any response from EU. He was expecting the operation to be over in 3 days and his main worries would have been US and trying to get China onside for political support in the UN.  So I totally agree with your first sentence. He wanted to invade for his legacy as a restorer of a greater Russia.

Whether the UK being in EU would have made much difference to his thinking I don't know, but I don't think it was his top priority.

Would the UK have imposed financial sanctions on the Russian oligarchs (many of whom hold Putin's money for him) if the invasion had been successful and ? That was Putin's gamble. It's where their money is/was. And a big source of funding for the Tory Party. If we were still in the EU they would have to have done so - outside it was entirely down to Johnson.

Which throws up another question - how important was Partygate - and distracting from it was Johnson's reaction to the sanctions?

It's well worth reading Bill Browder's books to understand Putin.

[Dutch Uncle]

Excellent point about Partygate Wilts. That it is even an issue is an indictment of our politicians - our last two Prime Ministers have both been far more interested in their own future than running the country

[SydneyRover]

Find a spare 6 minutes and watch this.

https://mobile.twitter.com/xruiztru/status/1589622943122075650

Remember, every bump is a war.

Great bst, just watched it, have been in a bandwidth desert for a couple of weeks.