UK politics and age

[BillyStubbsTears]

John Burn Murdoch again produces some fascinating data.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1755915215995113526?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

This is looking like Nemesis for the Tories. They have played a Culture War game for the last decade by appealing mainly to the sensibilities of the old.

But that eventually runs into a wall. They have totally alienated the young, who to put it bluntly, will be voting for a lot longer than the old.

And the really astonishing thing, as he shows later down the thread, is that even young people whose views would traditionally put them on the Right, are deserting the Tories.

This could be existential for the Tories. Historically, they have an amazing talent for self-renewal, and for building new support among younger generations. But they aren't even talking about that at the moment. Brexit, xenophobic policies and the pathetic obsession with "woke" is pushing younger voters further and further away from them. And it could take decades for them to rebuild a support base as the older voters that they now rely on fade from the scene.

This is what Labour gets, I think. They see a huge political realignment coming over the next 10-20 years. And by attracting more supporters from the centre, they are squeezing the Tories even harder.

The big realignments come rarely. There's only been one really big one in the last century - 1920s when the Liberals collapsed as a natural party of Government and never came back. But that's the danger facing the Tory party now.

Fascinating times.

[drfchound]

I wonder whether the Tory’s know about this?

[Bristol Red Rover]

By Labour attracting more from the centre, what you mean is attracting more people who would vote Tory. What does that make Labour in their actions?

Unfortunately what Labour are doing is losing authenticity, becoming more plastic,  more like the rest of political gaming mush. Democracy eh? This is not good for anyone except the same old elites that have always won the game.

[tommy toes]

The Tories needn't worry. Boris Johnson is seriously considering coming back to help them win the next election.

[drfchound]

The Tories needn't worry. Boris Johnson is seriously considering coming back to help them win the next election.

To be fair Tommy, he might do well for them.
Apparently lots of elderly people like him.

[danumdon]

By Labour attracting more from the centre, what you mean is attracting more people who would vote Tory. What does that make Labour in their actions?

Unfortunately what Labour are doing is losing authenticity, becoming more plastic,  more like the rest of political gaming mush. Democracy eh? This is not good for anyone except the same old elites that have always won the game.

Agreed, i don't think its the centre right coming to them, its the other way around, Labour is abandoning its core principles to such an extent that if they don't hit the ground running after the next GE their will be massive resentment on all sides.

What this means for genuine Labour who knows, but to have at the heart of our democracy all mainstream parties fighting over very murky differences is not great for democratic sustainability.

We are going to have some really alienated support to both the left and right of the political spectrum, lets just hope this doesn't open up avenues for extremists of both types to agitate.

If Starmer has really abandoned all for power then he will be found out very quickly.

[BillyStubbsTears]

By Labour attracting more from the centre, what you mean is attracting more people who would vote Tory. What does that make Labour in their actions?

Unfortunately what Labour are doing is losing authenticity, becoming more plastic,  more like the rest of political gaming mush. Democracy eh? This is not good for anyone except the same old elites that have always won the game.

Agreed, i don't think its the centre right coming to them, its the other way around, Labour is abandoning its core principles to such an extent that if they don't hit the ground running after the next GE their will be massive resentment on all sides.

What this means for genuine Labour who knows, but to have at the heart of our democracy all mainstream parties fighting over very murky differences is not great for democratic sustainability.

We are going to have some really alienated support to both the left and right of the political spectrum, lets just hope this doesn't open up avenues for extremists of both types to agitate.

If Starmer has really abandoned all for power then he will be found out very quickly.

Can't help shaking my head at that comment by BRR.

Folk on the far left never have been able to get their heads round the fact that, to win an election, Labour has to win the votes of people who previously voted Tory.

It's really quite embarrassing to have to spell that out, but it's amazing how many times over my lifetime I've had to do so.

[Bristol Red Rover]

BST, of course Labour need to win over folks who voted Tory last time out. They also need to motivate and win the votes of 5 years worth of first time voters. On the other hand they don't need to win the votes of 5 years of a Tory majority of dead people,. The also don't need to throw away a huge number of Muslim votes, but that's now done.

Beyond all that, people vote for more than the centre. Honesty, integrity, vision all count. Labour have come to the same ground as the Tories here, not a good thing. A vote loser. And then personality - the Tories are ahead there.

Labour are pledging to do pretty much the same as the Tories. This inspires no one. In fact it reeks of dishonesty and a lack of integrity, not the case for Tories who believe what they're doing, even if it is simply to feed the establishment.

Being unified counts. At least Labour have that now. Their machine is behind the leader this time rather than gunning for him. The price for this? Lots of cost for the many, benefits for the few.

Back to age. Labour have alienated a large section of a generation of wise first time voters, including sabotaging those first time voters of the previous two elections. It will take a lot to win them over, and the plan so far is way off the mark. And that includes the huge international and climate policy gaffs.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Just to emphasise the issues from the OP, this is a poll from Friday.

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1755974954758074548

The scale of the collapse in Tory support among voters younger than 50-60 is really extraordinary.

Put it in perspective. Before the 2010 election, the percentage of 18-65 year olds supporting the Tories was pretty consistent across the age spectrum at about 35%. Look at it now.

[Colin C No.3]

In 1997 Blair’s Labour Party defeated John Major’s Tory government by a landslide achieving a 179 seat majority with 418 seats.

According to a constituency by constituency model the Tories could lose more than 20 constituencies in its southern blue wall strongholds.

The models central projection, which takes into account the new boundaries the next election will be fought on, Labour would win 420 seats equating to a 190 seat landslide.

I happen to think that’s erring on the conservative side. No pun intended.

[drfchound]

Stitched on Labour landslide.

[Branton Red]

Re the link in the OP.

The difference between the UK and the other countries compared against is that a Conservative Government has been in charge in the UK throughout all the worldwide economic crises of the last 14 years.

I.e.: - the aftermath of the 08/09 crash and the hit to public finances; the anaemic worldwide recovery from said crash; Covid; the Putin caused cost of living crisis; the recent hike in interest rates.

Economic woes hit the least wealthy harder i.e. in general the younger. No wonder the younger generation disproportionately have abandoned the Conservatives.

I disagree that the Tories face an existential crisis akin to the Liberals in the 1920s. That would need a similar cosmic shift in our constitution. Post WW1 saw a massive increase in people eligible to vote not just women but also men who didn't own property - and a new party (Labour) perfectly positioned politically to take advantage.

Whilst FPTP remains in place a 2 party system Labour v Tories will remain in perpetuity.

It does however suggest the Tories need to reinvent themselves or face a period in the political wilderness.

The GE this year is a foregone conclusion. Far more interesting, and perhaps more important to the political future of this country, is the outcome of the Tory leadership election that will follow.

[selby]

  The Tories deserve to lose votes, I am not so sure Labour will gain as many as people are expecting though, people want change and some will look for complete change and other parties, and voter ID could make a massive difference to the numbers voting.
  If Israel carry on their mopping up for any more length of time I can see an Islamic party movement being formed to put pressure on the labour vote in areas where they are numerous, If they have the ID that is.
 

[BillyStubbsTears]

Branton.

I'm going to have to disagree on pretty much every point.

1) Britain as being different because the right have been in power for so long doesn't work. The right has been in power throughout the same period in Holland, and until very recently, in Germany. But they don't have the same trends with age.

2) There is no fundamental reason why hard times should hit the poorest hardest. It's a matter of political choice. We chose to look after the older generations after 2010, and chose to let the working young take the burden. That wasn't inevitable. It was a political choice.

3) In any case, the rejection of the Tories is not only in those groups too young to have known any other Government struggle with problems. In Britain, people 60 year old, who would have reached adulthood in the early 80s are less likely to support the Tories than their 18 equivalents in most other countries are to support their main right wing party. That's truly astonishing.


4) I didn't say this was a crisis akin to the Liberals' collapse, certainly not in terms of reasons and context. But I do think it can be in terms of consequence. Because the Tories have increasingly relied on the attitudes and support of the retired to keep them in power. But to be bluntly honest, they aren't going to be around for much longer. And there is an overwhelming rejection of the Tories among those who are ageing behind them.

5) I think it is perfectly possible that this leads to a realignment on the Right. There is now an almost baked in dislike of the Tories that dominates attitudes in the under-60. Of course, some of those groups might switch to the Tories if Labour in Govt becomes a disaster. But they are starting from such a low base in that demographic, that there would have to be a very big shift to give the Tories a majority in those groups. And the Tories are racing towards policies that are less attractive to most younger voters. Add to that the fact that Starmer has moved Labour towards the centre, and where do the Tories go? The most likely outcome over the next few years is that they go further right and become even less attractive to younger voters. If they do, they could possibly face 25 years out of power.

6) You skilfully avoided the great big elephant in the room.

Have a look at this post in John Burn Murdoch's thread, and the one below.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1755915244705095795

That's the nub of the problem. The Tories have based their whole electoral strategy over recent years on Brexit. But Brexit was always, broadly, supported by the old and disliked by the young.

That worked for a while, but Nemesis is coming over the horizon for the Tories as the demographic it appealed to dies out and is replaced by one that has very different attitudes.

[BillyStubbsTears]

PS
I agree that the Tory leadership after the Election is key. I simply do not see them electing anyone who can attract younger voters in the numbers required.

The leadership election will be about who can make the Tory party more anti-immigrant, more anti-Woke and truer to what the far right think are genuine conservative values. The membership that overwhelminy chose Truss is not going to suddenly decide they need a Ken Clarke next time round.

[The Red Baron]

PS
I agree that the Tory leadership after the Election is key. I simply do not see them electing anyone who can attract younger voters in the numbers required.

The leadership election will be about who can make the Tory party more anti-immigrant, more anti-Woke and truer to what the far right think are genuine conservative values. The membership that overwhelminy chose Truss is not going to suddenly decide they need a Ken Clarke next time round.

Do you see a Ken Clarke amongst the current Tory leadership, BST, because I don't.

Assuming they survive the almost inevitable cull of Tory MPs, I'd bet good money that the battle for the next leader will be between James Cleverley and Kemi Badenoch.

There's a further problem for the Tories in that Reform, aka the Old UKIP, aka the Brexit Party, may squeeze their vote quite hard from the right, especially in Red Wall seats. Reform may not win a seat at Westminster, but they may hand Labour a bigger majority than even the polls suggest.

[Iberian Red]

PS
I agree that the Tory leadership after the Election is key. I simply do not see them electing anyone who can attract younger voters in the numbers required.

The leadership election will be about who can make the Tory party more anti-immigrant, more anti-Woke and truer to what the far right think are genuine conservative values. The membership that overwhelminy chose Truss is not going to suddenly decide they need a Ken Clarke next time round.

Do you see a Ken Clarke amongst the current Tory leadership, BST, because I don't.

Assuming they survive the almost inevitable cull of Tory MPs, I'd bet good money that the battle for the next leader will be between James Cleverley and Kemi Badenoch.

There's a further problem for the Tories in that Reform, aka the Old UKIP, aka the Brexit Party, may squeeze their vote quite hard from the right, especially in Red Wall seats. Reform may not win a seat at Westminster, but they may hand Labour a bigger majority than even the polls suggest.

Red Baron,
First and foremost,respect for being a big MES fan. The man was and is a legend.
Secondly, thanks for an intelligent input.
I do believe we have reverted to that mid/early 80s politics again.
If the Tories have Cleverley and Badenoch as the future, it really is looking grim.